Thursday, August 31, 2017

Collateral Beauty

Keeping our collective eyes on the goal, tonight looks pretty bad for the Indians.  

First, let's be real.   IF we get to the playoffs, any team could knock us off.  This is especially true in a 5-game playoff series.   Still, everything being equal, the league championship series should be harder than the divisional playoff series. 

Plus, you have the rest of the regular season.   The AL Central championship is NOT guaranteed by any means.

However, if you look ahead and ASSUME (you know what they say about ASS-U-ME) we can hold on to the Central lead, the goal would be to play the wildcard winner instead of Boston, and have the Astros have to play Boston with the winner likely to be softened up for us if we win the first series.  To do that we would have to overtake Houston which, until tonight, looked more and more possible.

Well, all that took a turn for the worse tonight.   The Astros got Justin Verlander which clearly tilts the power in the AL more towards the Astros.  This will  make catching the Astros that much more difficult. Remember the boost we got when we acquired Jay Bruce?   Expect the same thing out of the Astros now.

Plus, the only deadline acquisition that made sense for the Indians, Brandon Phillips, went to the Angels. 

So, tonight didn't help the Indians and, with the Astros trade, made it much more difficult to get to the World Series. 

Will the Astros getting Verlander actually hurt the Indians psyche and cause them to go into a tailspin?  Let's hope not.  However, in the back of their minds they have to be asking themselves if beating the Houston Astros in the playoffs now became more unlikely.  That, plus the fact that the Twins are not currently putting pressure on the Indians, could get us out of whack. 

Still, look around you.   We are in first place, playing great ball and we don't even have Salazar, Miller, Brantley, Chisenhall or Kipnis right now.   If Kipnis would come back at 2016 levels for the rest of the way and Brantley and Chisenhall just return, by the playoffs, the their early season form, we should be just that much better.  If Salazar comes back to his pre-most-recent-injury levels and Miller returns to early season form, our pitching staff would still likely be the best in baseball, Even our catchers are hitting much better than last year when we went to the 7th game of the Series and without Bruce and Encarnacion, our 4-5 hitters now. 

So, the FIRST PLACE Cleveland Indians didn't get better tonight.   The collateral beauty is, well, they are the first place Cleveland Indians, ahead by 6.5 games going into the doubleheader tomorrow in a series where we won't have to face Verlander.  Lots of collateral beauty to be liking there!

So, let's look at the collateral beauty and hope the Indians do the same thing tomorrow afternoon.

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Hurricane Harvey

CIP's thoughts and prayers are with all those being impacted by tropical storm/hurricane Harvey. 

Aug 31st deadline and September callups

Let's take a quick look at what the Indians have and need as we approach both Aug 31st (deadline to acquire players who will be eligible for the post-season) and Sep. 1st (active rosters can expand to 40 players).

First, our 40-man roster is currently full.   Any additions will mean that someone has to go.   Right now the only guy who is expendable is Kyle Crockett although a case could be made that Abe Almonte is no longer a viable part of this team.   While Adam Plutko and Shawn Morimando have not had great seasons, they are depth starters who shouldn't be jettisoned for some one-month wonder.

So what do we need that we can get in the next two days?  The answer is SPEED and, preferably, speed in an infielder.   We need to find a way to manufacture some runs when the HR hitters are not hitting HRs.    The problem is, no one is available.

We could get Brandon Phillips if we were sure he was going to be a positive in the clubhouse.   He might add a little speed and could allow us to shift Ramirez back to third and inject more offense. 

So that does it for the Aug 31st deadline.

What about September callus?

It's great when your AAA and AA teams suck because there is no reason to keep a particular guy down on the farm.   So here are my opinion on what we should do:

Sept. 1st - We call up Francisco Mejia and Tyler Naquin and activate Chisenhall (if he isn't already activated).   We activate Otero from the paternity list. 

Sept 10th - We activate Almonte, Brantley, Miller and Kipnis.  I think we should add Greg Allen to the 40-man roster and DFA Crockett.  I don't believe that Allen would add that much but I would like to see him on the ML roster for depth in case we want to have him as the 25th man on a playoff roster.  Again, as an outfielder, he is the exact opposite, position-wise, of what we need.   Obviously, however, there is no place for him if we get Phillips back. 

Morimando and Plutko didn't earn callups and while Ronny Rodriguez, Cole Sulser, Louis Head and Josh Martin have probably earned a cup of coffee, it won't be with the Indians due to the players we have and the fact our 40-man is full.  I would hope we would trade some of these guys to get Phillips, thus giving us an asset and giving these guys a chance to get a taste of the majors.

That's it.  Don't be surprised if not much exciting happens over the next week or so.  If we can just get Phillips and bring up Mejia, that would be exciting enough for me. 
 




Thursday, August 24, 2017

The Indians, Corey Kluber and Chris Sale

If Corey Kluber wins the AL Cy Young this season he will have to thank his teammates.

Duh!  Everyone thanks his teammates when he wins an award like this, right?

No, REALLY!  If Kluber wins the Cy Young it might be by the thinnest of margins...a margin created by the Indians spanking Chris Sale in his two starts against the Tribe.

If you remove those two starts Sale has made against the Indians his stats look like this:

170.1 IP
116 H
44 ER
31 BB
245 K
13 HR
2.32 ERA

Now, add those two starts in and you have:

178.1 IP
132 H
57 ER
35 BB
253 K
15 HR
2.88 ERA

Now let's look at Kluber's current numbers

152.2 IP
107 H
45 ER
32 BB
206 K
17 HR
2.65 ERA

So if you adjust for IP here are how Kluber and Sale stack up:

Kluber               Sale
0.70 H/IP         0.74 H/IP
2.65 ERA         2.88 ERA
0.21 W/IP        0.20 W/IP
1.34 K/IP         1.42 K/IP
0.11 HR/IP      0.083 HR/IP
0.750 win pct.  0.700 win pct.
4 CG/22 starts   1 CG/25 starts

Now, there is a lot of season left and anything can happen but looking at the stats immediately above, Kluber seems to have a slight advantage.  Most of the stats are pretty much dead heats but Kluber's ERA, win pct. and complete games normalized for number of starts are demonstrably better than Sale's.  If you subtracted out Sale's two starts against Cleveland he would be leading in every category above except CG/start.  If you subtract out Sale's two starts against Cleveland, he wins the Cy Young if the vote was today.   But adding those starts in...it gives the voters a reason to watch closely the rest of the season instead of already having their ballot filled out (at least in their mind).  Plus, Kluber pitched well against Boston on Wed. in his only start against them this year.

BTW, if you look at how each has pitched against teams going to the playoffs I think Kluber has the edge there, too, with a good part of his advantage over Sale being, once again, developed from his two starts against the Indians.

It is likely to be a close race down to the end but, if Kluber beats out Sale for this year's AL Cy Young award, he has to thank his teammates for beating up on Sale in his two starts against the Indians.   Not just beating SALE those games, but beating him AND trashing Sale's season stats!

Saturday, August 19, 2017

This and that

Some random thoughts:

The story in the Plain Dealer about the man who still has his season tickets for him and his wife although his wife passed away 19 years ago was heartwarming.  A very good piece.  

The Jay Bruce trade was an important piece.  Don't want to toot my own horn but I said that all we need is one more bat and that would change everything.   Given that teams weren't jumping on getting Bruce shows that he wasn't THE piece we could have had but that it was any GOOD piece that would make the difference.   Still, imagine what it would have been like if Giancarlo Stanton had come over in June as I asked for and continued his home run rampage in Cleveland. 

The Indians are now starting to hit.   That is all they really need assuming their starting pitching is only average for the rest of the year.

If our catchers could only hit .250 with a little power...

Our bullpen is still in flux but some of these peripheral guys (Goody, Olson, for example) are doing really well.

Tough luck for our AAA relievers.   Guys like Louis Head, Cole Sulser, Josh Martin and Jeff Johnson might be getting a shot in the majors in other organizations (remember Joe Colon and Perci Garner last year). However, the ML bullpen sixth inning/situational guys doing well, the addition of Joe Smith and the addition of guys like Craig Breslow and even Diego Moreno and, of course, the ever-looming 40-man roster issues, make it impossible even to give the above 3 even a reward callup.  Everyone wants a career in the majors but even a cup of coffee is a fulfillment of a lifetime dream for many of these guys.  Ditto for Kyle Crockett and AAA starters like Plutko, Narveson, Grube,  Merrywether who might get callups to see if they can succeed in shorter roles in the majors.  For many of these guys it is like being 2.5 games behind for the second wildcard spot but having to climb over 7 other teams to get there.   Possible, but it is going to take a lot of bad luck to get it done.  I might trade Head, Sulser, Martin and Johnson to some ML team for a month and a half rental of a hitting catcher who is going to be a FA.  I don't normally like to throw prospects away but I feel so bad for these guys I might consider doing it. 

When Brantley and Chisenhall come back we have a problem.  It's a good problem but yet a problem.

We have Encarnacion and Santana to split first base and DH.  Remember that Chisenhall and Brantley have also played 1B in their careers.

We have Brantley, Bruce, Chisenhall, Zimmer, Guyer and Jackson to split the outfield.

We will have Naquin, Diaz and Almonte in the minors. 

Basically we have too many guys for the positions.  WAY too many guys.   It will take Tito's magic to work all these guys in, keep them sharp, and still win games now and, hopefully, if we get to the post-season.  I think Chisenhall will get some time at 1B and 3B and Diaz at 3B once they get to the big leagues again.  We need to get Santana, Encarnacion, Ramirez and Kipnis some rest down the stretch.   It would also be nice to give Lindor some rest and give Gonzalez some ABs.  With the current lineup plus Brantley, I think that Gonzalez's bat, or lack thereof, won't hurt us. 

If we are fortunate to make it to the post-season it will be interesting to see how Tito constructs his roster.   To me, the odd man out right now is Zimmer.   Just like Naquin last year Zimmer's weaknesses are being exposed.  If we fall in love with his defense I think we will be burned as rookies are still rookies and I think his defense may disintegrate just a bit under the bright lights of the playoffs.  I look at the above and see a playoff roster clearly without Bradley Zimmer...at least this year.   

Two surprises who might make the post-season roster:  Diaz and Tim Cooney, who pitched his first game back from injury last night.   Diaz is versatile and could hit when necessary.   Cooney could fill a variety of roles and would be fresh compared to guys who played the whole season.   An interesting piece was done on Diaz and his negative swing plane.   Maybe he can't help us but my feeling is that I would have rather had him up in the 10th inning in the 7th game of the WS instead of Michael Martinez.   Just sayin'.

Friday, August 11, 2017

WTF...yesterday's 8th inning was ridiculous

I normally don't rant about individual games...but I have had my moments where I do.

This is one of them.

Besides the lack of hitting, lack of timely hitting and, well, did I mention the lack of hitting, there was the 8th inning.

Twice, not once but TWICE, the Indians could have turned a double play just by catching a foul pop on a suicide squeeze.   The second time would have ended the inning, giving Corey Dickerson no chance to hit his 3 run HR.

Now these were suicide squeezes and, in each case, the runner on 3rd did not exactly sprint back to 3rd base once the ball was popped up.  He froze.   In each case if we catch the ball we easily double him up. 

Now, the first one was a difficult attempt by Urshela but, given that it is Urshela and given that replays clearly showed his glove got to the point where the ball was going to hit the ground (or just past it), I think it is a play that should be made.

But, OK, let's give that one to the Rays as a difficult play.

However, the next one was a joke.   Pop up that Santana muffs.   Now, maybe there is a rule in baseball that I don't know about that made this a dead ball as soon as Santana touches it, meaning the runner is allowed to return to 3rd.   However, if that obscure rule does not exist, then all Santana has to do is catch the freakin' easy popup and turn and lob to 3rd and we are out of the inning.  

Really, really bad play, unless that obscure rule truly exists. 

I would like to say it cost us the game but it was crappy hitting that cost us that game.  I watched the Cardinals at the same time as the Indians last night and the Cardinals put up a bunch of runs with rookies getting clutch hits.   In contrast, we have Edward Encarnacion making out after out. Perfect example was in the first inning yesterday.   Ramirez was on first and the Logan Morrison was holding him on.   The rest of the infield was on the left side of second base.   Encarnacion could have taken either of the first two pitches to right field for a hit just by rolling the ball in that direction and Ramirez would have made 3rd.   Instead he grounded into a double play once the count got to 0-2.   Snell was struggling all season and we had the chance to keep the pressure on.  Encarnacion was hitting .200 since the all-star break.   He should have hit the ball on the ground into right field.  Just bad managing and bad hitting, in my opinion.

Jay Bruce

Good pickup by the Indians.   The cost is right...unlike the Joe Smith trade where we WAY overpaid for two months of a 7th inning guy AND in a situation where we needed hitting more than pitching. 

Why is it, thought   that the other teams know EXACTLY the guy(s) who are the most intriguing prospects to pluck from our system.  Not the most high profile, just the most intriguing.

Ryder Ryan is a guy who throws really hard but doesn't have that much pitching experience.   If you are thinking you have heard that before you are right.   Nick Goody came to us for Yoiber Marquina, the former catcher in our system who was starting to make headway as a pitcher before he went down with TJ surgery last year.

Ryan is a long shot to make the majors but, just like Pannone and Samad Taylor, is the type of guy who you might kick yourself about later.

Bruce is someone who can help us.   I really think he could help in the regular season and we need a lot of help with the offense.


Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Trade Deadline hangover goes through Tuesday night

Well, in the Francona era there have been many memorable wins.

Tonight's game, to me, represents the most memorable loss in his tenure.   What about Game 7 of the World Series you say?  I say not even close.

You had your AL rivals (the Red Sox) at their place and you led 5-0, 7-5 and 10-9 and couldn't hold the lead.

Allen lost the game on a chopper off the plate and a strikeout wild pitch then giving a 3-1 meatball the other team's #9 hitter. 

This was a win we really needed.   We needed it against Boston/Sale in Boston.  We needed it because we had looked so pathetic last night.   We needed it because, well, we just plain needed it.

And we lost.  Let's hope this is just one game....but I said that about Monday's game, too.   Things like this are what start long losing streaks. 

At least Joe Smith pitched two scoreless innings.   BTW, following up on yesterday's trade, Hoynsie said neither Pannone or Taylor was on MLB's top 30 Indians prospects.   He is right.  First because Taylor is in rookie ball and because Pannone was #22 on Toronto's list.    Terry Pluto said neither Pannone or Taylor were on Baseball America's top 30 Indians' prospects.   Duh, that's because that list came out in January.   MLB said in their review of Panonne that his FLOOR is that of an end-of-rotation starter.  So we gave up a future ML starter and a guy (Taylor) just coming into his own for 2 months of Joe Smith.   Like the trade even less now.

Compare that to the Yankees getting Sonny Gray without giving up any of their top 3 prospects.   Two of the three guys they gave up are out for the season with injuries.   So we give up two decent prospects for Smith (by the Indians' own admission, 4th on their relief  and the Yankees give up three good prospects, with two of them hurt, for 2 years 2 months of Sonny Gray.  Doesn't seem to make sense, does it?