Draft Update

It looks like Quentin Holmes may have signed, at least that's what the Mississippi State fans think as they show a picture of Quentin at a June 28th Indians game.

No social media word about Mike Rivera (6th round), Dante Mendoza (12th round) or Oscar Serratos (14th round).

If you remember these are the three guys I think are still in play for the Indians now that Kyle Nelson and Michael Hendrickson have signed.  Here is a complete list of signings, black meaning the player has signed, yellow highlights meaning the player is likely to sign and red meaning the player is unlikely to sign. 

64	Quentin Holmes
71	Tyler Freeman
102	Johnathan Rodriguez
132	Ernie Clement
162	Austen Wade
192	Michael Rivera
222	Kirk McCarty
252	Eli Morgan
282	James Karinchak
312	Jesse Berardi
342	Matt Turner
372	Dante Mendoza
402	Angel Lopez
432	Oscar Serratos
462	Kyle Nelson
492	Nick Gallagher
522	Pedro Alfonseca
552	Dillon Persinger
582	Josh Nashed
612	Jonathan Teaney
642	Tyler Friis
672	Clark Scolamiero
702	Jordan Scheftz
732	Riley Echols
762	Chandler Ferguson
792	Tommy DeJuneas
822	Casey Opitz
852	Michael Hendrickson
882	Tre' Gantt
912	Zach Draper
942	Asa Lacy
972	Mitch Reeves
1002	Michael Cooper
1032	Cole Turney
1062	Spencer Strider
1092	Jorge Arellano
1122	Austin Martin
1152	Scott Kobos
1182	Josh Rolette
1212	Cole Kleszcz

How the draft is shaping up

OK, we are a couple of weeks into the draft signing process and here is what we know:

• The Indians, right now, are running about even to their draft budget, being about $10,000 over budget so far.   Given that they can actually be $191,000 over budget and not lose a draft pick, they have some extra in their budget at this point.
• They have signed almost every signable player from rounds 11-40.  Right now the only players they have left in play, in my opinion, are Dante Mendoza (HS) and Kyle Nelson (college junior) from those rounds.  Oscar Serratos (HS) is intriguing as the Indians don't normally draft a HS kid that high unless they can sign him.  They have already signed 17 kids drafted in the final 30 rounds, more than I expected and all but one of the college juniors/seniors they picked in those rounds.   
• It will be interesting to see what the signing bonuses of Austen Wade and weak hitting U. of Florida catcher Michael Rivera will sign for.  My hope is that both come at slight discounts, similar to the discount they got Clement for.   If it does happen we are looking at maybe $275,000 in additional monies over budget to sign the following players:
• Quentin Holmes - It may take $1,000,000 to sign him, or $30,000 over budget
• Tyler Freeman - I am hoping to sign him for slot or a little under slot, maybe $45,000 given his pre-draft ranking and what we got Clement for.
• Kyle Nelson - I am hoping to sign him for $25,000 over slot at $150,000.  It seems like maybe the reason he hasn't signed is because they are waiting to see what they have left in the budget to go over the $125,000 slot for him.  Maybe it may take a little more to sign him and we may have that, depending on Serratos (see below).
• This leaves about $250,000 to sign Mendoza and Serratos with.  I think it will take probably $250,000 to sign each of them, meaning that we will use up all of that 250K excess if we sign both of them.  If we only get Mendoza we are likely to come in right around budget with about 125K short of the overage that would force us to lose a draft pick next year. 

Of all the drafts the Indians have had in recent years this draft will hinge on the scouts' ability to project these guys.   I know that sounds like a duh moment but we are talking about a number of guys here with limited tools who we would expect big improvements from if this draft is going to be successful.  When you draft as low as the Indians did this year you have to count on great scouting and a little luck.   They certainly will have the warm bodies to try to make that happen, especially if all the possible remaining guys sign. 

Draft signing update

Austen Wade (per Twitter) and Michael Hendrickson (per professor's Facebook) have signed with the Cleveland Indians.  No word on their bonuses.   Post below will be updated to reflect this.

It was reported via Twitter that Cole Turney will not sign and will attend Arkansas.   It was also reported on Twitter that Asa Lacy will attend Texas A&M as the Indians could not meet his bonus demands.

So much for our two 'flyer' picks.  

OK, boys, let's lock up Holmes and Freeman, sign some of the lower round picks who will take a little more than $125,000, and call it a day.

On that note it was reported on Twitter that Dillon Persinger has also signed.  No information on his bonus yet.

Rookie ball predictions

OK, we have a sense of the rosters for the NY-Penn and AZL teams.  Here are the predictions:

MV Scrappers:  

Record:  45-31

Summary:  This will be the best season in Scrappers' history.   The combination of young guys who played on the AZL team last year and the influx of college players from the 2017 draft will gel.  I see at least 5-6 of the guys on this team making the top 30 Indians' prospects this winter.

AZL Indians

Record: 21-36

Summary: This team will be the worst in Indians' history at this level.   There will be a few college players sprinkled in, more than normal, but it won't be enough to save the inexperience of some likely organizational players from last year's DSL team.  It will be hard to tell how much talent is there as the lack of experience will make it hard to take any positives from this season.  So, it will be a lost season for the team and us prospect geeks won't have much to look at. Only Freeman and or Holmes will make the top 30 prospect list this winter.

We have a glut

When you switch from having a HS heavy draft one year to a college heavy draft the next year you have this problem.

The MV roster is super crowded right now and it will only get worse once the college world series is over. 

Prospects like Will Benson, Nolan Jones, Ulysses Cantu, Oscar Gonzalez, Elvis Perez are getting playing time.  However, we have signed/will sign guys like Austen Wade, Ernie Clement, Taylor Friis, Jesse Berardi, Clark Scolamiero, etc.   These are college guys who would normally start and play most every day at Mahoning Valley.  So we are at 10 guys and that doesn't even count the catcher.  

We are already stashing college guys in Arizona as the AZL Indians have 2017 college draft picks Tre Gantt, Mitch Reeves, Pedro Alfonseca and a number of 2017 college pitcher draft picks.

Right now the MV roster has 15 pitchers and I think 11 infielders on their roster.  That seems really high to me, especially for the infielders. 

Plus, it would be worse except that Connor Capel is playing almost every day at Lake County.

So this is a wealth of riches which should make both the Scrappers and the AZL Indians strong performers this year.  I just hope there is enough playing time for our best prospects at MV and that no more guys are sent to the AZL Indians just because there is no room on the MV roster.

2017 Draft Signing Update

So far here is what we know from reports of signings for the Indians 2017 draft.  I'll update this as I learn more.  Note that two late round HS kids have signed which is always interesting (although they weren't highly ranked):

Quentin Holmes - Not signed yet
Tyler Freeman - Not signed yet
Jonathan Rodriguez - Signed - ($450,000 ($77,600 under slot) per LGT)
Ernie Clement - signed (per Mahoning Valley MiLB roster) ($350,000 ($43,000 under slot) per LGT)
Austen Wade - Signed (per his Twitter page 6/27).  No word on his bonus yet.
Michael Rivera - still playing in college world series
Kirk McCarthy - signed per Twitter via Southern Miss. baseball coach ($250,000, $70,500 over slot) per LGT)
Eli Morgan - signed (per MV MiLB roster) - ($135,000 ($15,000 under slot) per LGT)
James Karinchak - signed (per MV MiLB roster) - ($138,300 (at slot) per LGT)
Jesse Berardi - signed (per MV MiLB roster) - ($133,300 ($2,000 over slot) per Twitter)
Matthew Turner - (HS kid) signed per AZL Indians roster
Dante Mendoza - unsigned
Angel Lopez Alvarez - signed (per Baseball America)
Oscar Serratos - unsigned
Kyle Nelson - Uncertain if he has signed
Nick Gallagher - signed per Baseball America
Pedro Alfonseca - signed per Baseball America
Dillon Persinger - signed per Twitter (no information on bonus yet)
Josh Nashed - unsigned
Jonathon Teaney - signed (per MV MiLB roster)
Tyler Friis - signed (per MV MiLB roster)
Clark Scolamiero - signed (per MV MiLB roster)
Jordan Scheftz - signed (per Baseball America)
Riley Echols - signed (per MV MiLB roster)
Chandler Ferguson - signed (HS kid) (per Baseball America)
Tommy Dejuneau - signed (per Baseball America)
Casey Optiz - unsigned
Michael Hendrickson - Signed per professor's Facebook post
Tre Gantt -signed (per Baseball America)
Zack Draper - signed (per Baseball America)
Asa Lacey - unsigned
Mitch Reeves - signed (per Baseball America)
Michael Cooper - signed (HS kid) (per Baseball America)
Cole Turney -unsigned
Spencer Strider - unsigned
Jorge Arellano - unsigned
Austin Martin - unsigned
Scott Kobos - unsigned
Josua Rolette - unsigned
Cole Kleszcz - unsigned

WARNING; small sample size post

OK, I love the Indians.   Also, I grew up following the Indians' minor leaguers.   I mean, I was an Indians' fan!  What else was there to do but think to the future?!?

So now fast forward to the 21st century.  You can watch all of your team's minor league teams, at least to some level, on the internet except for the AZL and GCL games (and what is up with that?). 

If you are not careful you can start reading too much into some things based on small sample size.   I remember when the Indians drafted Brad Snyder and he was whiffing a lot his first year and I pointed out that this might be a real red flag when your #1 pick can't even handle rookie ball pitching.   Of course my concern was unfounded, right, because look how his career turned out.  Well, yeah, look how it turned out!  Thirteen minor league seasons and a total of 66 ML ABs....with 28 Ks. 

So, with that backdrop in mind, I have spent the last couple of nights watching the Scrappers play and, may I say, the video feed from the West Virginia Black Bears is one of the best in the minors, in my opinion.   But I digress. 

What occurs to me after watching Will Benson hit is that there may be an issue.   Now, in Snyder's case he had trouble hitting anything that would break.   In watching Benson for two days he is having trouble hitting straight pitches right down the middle of the plate.   Yeah, he had two good ABs on Monday, one in which he got a hit against a 95 mph fastball and one where he was eating up a guy's softer stuff (but foul) until he K'd.   However, in every other AB, including EVERY AB on Tuesday, he looked overmatched.   I mean REALLY overmatched.   They didn't even try to throw him breaking balls.   The pitchers were just raring back and throwing fastballs down the middle of the plate and it looked like the way Benson was flailing and missing that he was trying to hit the ball with a straightened close hanger or, maybe, was just tardy catching up with the fastball.

Now, at this level every first rounder should be able to hit a good fastball and may struggle with breaking balls.   Benson looked like he was having trouble catching up with average fastballs. 

It's early and it could all be fatigue or seeing real pitching after being in extended spring training but what I saw the last two days, especially yesterday, is concerning to me.  At least concerning enough to mention it here. 

BTW, Nolan Jones was not much better with an 0-4 and THREE errors.    Ulysses Cantu looks like he can really hit and I am intrigued about how Oscar Gonzalez and the Laureano kid will do.  BTW, Elvis Perez made a ML play on a ball up the middle and is hitting the heck out of the ball so he is one to keep an eye on.   Grant Hockin was not perfect but to see him on the mound, finally, and for him to have some success (4 IP, 1 R) really brought a smile to my face.

Again, small sample sizes all but it is great to have a GOOD poor sample size than the red flags that Benson and Jones are throwing up!

Looking back over the 2016 draft

OK, I am watched some of the Mahoning Valley game last night and it reminded me that we are one year removed from the 2016 draft.   Let's take a look back and see how that draft is going:

1. Will Benson - So far he is as advertised.   In watching him last night he appears to have it all.  Quick bat (turning around a mid-90s fastball from top 25 prospect in all of baseball Mitch Keller who was rehabbing at West Virginia last nigh), good power, good plate discipline and it good in the field.  Plus, he is always smiling.  

2. Nolan Jones - He has an accurate rifle for an arm at third base, making two major league throws to nail runners at first, the second on a bases-loaded high chopper to save a run and squash a rally in a 0-0 game.   That being said, he botched a ground ball in the first, lost a ground ball in the sun in the first (how is that even possible) and looked overmatched at the plate until his single on a ball at his ankles right before the rain delay.   Plus he was quoted as not being excited about playing a REAL game as he had already had more ABs this spring than he ever had in a season before. Compare that to Benson's comments about how he was ready to play meaningful games and win and you will see what I mean.   Maybe I am reading too much into this but it seems to me like Jones has his eye too much on the grand prize (making the majors) and too little on the game of baseball and living in the moment. So, the jury is out on this kid for me.  

2a. Logan Ice - This kid was always a good defensive catcher.   He was always going to be drafted.  However, he shot up draft boards last spring because he started to hit.   Well, guess what?  The kid hasn't shown he can hit as a pro yet, even given that the Indians gave him a cake assignment (for a college guy) and put his first full-season assignment at low A Lake County.   He should be raking as he plays against 19 and 20 year olds and he isn't.   I mean, Connor Capel, who was in HS last year, is hitting much better!   Guys learn their limitations in pro ball.  The ones who learn that lesson and maximize their strengths make the majors.   The others never do.  Which brings me to a scary comp for Ice.   When the Indians drafted Javi Herrera from U. of Tennessee in 2003 I did the same head scratching I did when the Indians drafted Ice and Michael Tinsley in 2016.  Herrera never learned to hit and never made the majors.   Let's hope Ice learns what he needs to to find some way to utilize his skills to become a productive hitter, at least productive enough to be a major league backup which, to me, is his ceiling at this point.

3/4 - Aaron Civale/Shane Bieber - These guys are as advertised.  Strikethrowing machines who compete well at the lower levels of the minors due to demeanor and command.  The key thing for me is that they don't always dominate, meaning their stuff will not save them if they don't have command.   Just like Adam Plutko in 2013, their stuff and command leads me to believe they will both pitch in the majors.  Like Plutko, the question will be what kind of career will each of them have.

5. Connor Capel - Having a HS guy start his first full-season as a pro in the Midwest League can really be deceiving.   On one hand it is a tough assignment for a young guy but, on the other, the Midwest League (and low A in general) tends to inflate the apparent value of hitters for reasons I don't fully understand.   All that being said, Capel, who was rushed into this role due to injuries and lack of organizational depth in the low minors in the outfield, is holding his own and showing good power (10 HRs already after none last year).   For me, the kid has easily moved into the Indians' top 30 prospects at this point with the caveat that I don't know how much we will be able to tell about his long-term future no matter how he does the rest of the season.  Nevertheless, using the 1000 minor league AB mantra, if he stays healthy the whole season, we may know sooner about him than about other 2016 draftees what we have in him.

6. Ulysses Cantu - You just had to know that this guy was better than his stats last year and all reports say he will show it this year at the Valley.  Considering he was hitting 5th last night it also bodes well for his season (Will Benson hit 6th!).    He looked good at the plate and in the field last night and looks relaxed this year.   It looks like this was a good pick and I am pretty sure he will have a breakout year this year.

7. Michael Tinsley - Another college catcher drafted last year, he isn't on the MV roster, making me think he must be hurt, especially given that there are only two catchers on the MV roster right now.  Although we won't know for sure until the end of this season, this looks like it might have been a wasted pick for the Indians.   Let's hope not.

8. Andrew Lantrip - He was injured last year so the jury is still out on him.   We'll see if he pitches this year as he is on the AZL roster.  He intrigues me as the Indians have always had good luck finding relievers in the middle rounds and drafting a guy like him in the top 10 rounds makes me think he may be a little better than those other guys.

9. Hosea Nelson - This appears to have been a good use of their 9th round pick.  Nelson has enough tools that he is still a very intriguing prospect and hasn't done anything so far that raises question marks about his selection.

10. Samad Taylor - Considering he was leading off at MV last night it tells me they are impressed with his speed and on-base skills, something he showcased last year after he was drafted.   A great pick in my opinion, instead of taking some low level college senior talent.

11. Andrew Calica - He hit last year and, after a rough patch this year, is hitting again.   As hitting is his only above-average tool, it looks like a good 11th round pick, very similar, in my opinion, to Plutko in 2013.

12th round and beyond - It is always hard to gauge what you will get from guys drafted this low but, so far, all of their signees have upside and some, like Zach Plesac(whose path to get here reminds me of Vinnie Pestano) and Ryder Ryan have significant upside.   Basically, looking at them so far, I can't find but one or two guys from this group that I can classify as organizational players so far and that is a GREAT thing to be saying at this point as it means that all of them have some upside as prospects.   One interesting side note, due to organizational need Jonathon Laureano has been playing 3rd base at Akron, making him the first player from the Indians' 2016 draft to make it to AA.  He is back at MV now so we'll see how his season goes but that is a feather in his cap that he held his own in his brief stay with the Rubber Ducks after hitting a pathetic .104 last year at MV. 

First post-draft thoughts

Here are some impressions from the Indians' draft:

1. My initial impression remains.  The Indians drafted for quality but with an eye on quantity in this draft.  The intent, I guess, is to maximize the NUMBER of major leaguers they get out of the draft and hope 1-2 exceed expectations significantly and perform as if they were #1 picks.   I think that is what Baseball America means when they refer to the Indians' draft as 'a portfolio approach'.  The other approach, which they DID NOT employ is to draft 1-2 superstuds followed by plenty of low-priced, organizational fillers.  Given their draft resources this year, I like the strategy.

2. Sometimes it is instructive to look at pre-season rankings to see what happened to guys during the year. This gives you an idea of whether guys might have some significant upside that got buried in a year that, for whatever reason, caused their draft stock to plummet or, at least, dip  When you do that, assuming that college and HS draft classes were roughly equal in size and quality top to bottom, here is what you have:

2. Quentin Holmes - 22 pre-season (BA), 50 BA pre-draft, 33 MLB pre-draft
2. Tyler Freeman - 174 pre-season (BA), 97 BA pre-draft, 141 MLB pre-draft
4. Ernie Clement - 118 pre-season (BA), 92 BA pre-draft, 114 MLB pre-draft
6. Michael Rivera - 56 pre-season (BA), 175 BA pre-draft, 172 MLB pre-draft
9. James Karinchak - 132 pre-season (BA), 122 BA pre-draft, 163 MLB pre-draft
34. Cole Turney - 74 pre-season (BA), 128 BA pre-draft, 182 MLB pre-draft

I think Rivera fell during the season due to low batting average.   Turney fell substantially. Clement and Karinchak held their positions.  Freeman raised his stock a little during the season.

Trying to figure out what all this means is difficult but I will give it a try.  Signing all of the above would help this draft immensely.  Signing the first 5 is necessary for this draft to turn out to be really productive.  I think Turney is almost unsignable as I think he probably expected to go way higher than he did and his drop in draft status will make him think that he can do better the next time around after 3 years at Arkansas.  I think it takes mid second round money to even have a chance to sign Turney and I can't see how we can come up with that.  If we have money left, we would probably turn our attention to Asa Lacey although the Texas A&M commitment would be hard to overcome.   Rivera is likely to sign but, of the first 10 round guys, might be the most likely to go back to school as he plays a premium position and 6th round money should be easy to reproduce next year if he has a monster offensive season (the defense should remain solid).  As silly as it may seem, having Francisco Mejia may also influence whether Rivera signs plus having Logan Ice in front of him on the development chart might also be persuasive in him going back to school.

So, in summary, I think Michael Rivera may be the most at-risk prospect not to sign in the first 10 Indians' picks.  I think we can sign the rest of our first round picks if we can spread a little leftover bonus money around.    I don't think we can sign Turney so I would focus my resources on signing those first 10 round picks.   If one of Karinchak or Berardi does not sign we could focus on Lacey but I don't think we really will sign of anyone of obvious note after the first 10 rounds as, even if we have money left over, I can't imagine it is worth spending on anyone but Turney or Lacey.  I mean, $50,000 or $100,000 over slot for a pick after round 10 might be doable, if we only do it once or twice and I can't see who we would even spend the money on.  Of course, I thought the same thing about Morimando when we signed him and I was wrong about that. 

It's time to let youth be served...for dinner

OK, long before Erik Gonzalez forgot where second base was on his way to botching a crucial double play, I was ticked off.

Earlier in the game with the offense struggling, Erik Gonzalez went 2-0 against Brandon McCarthy.   At that moment McCarthy had thrown almost as many balls as strikes but had only given up one hit. 

So you are a rookie trying to make an impression in a game where we are obviously short on baserunners.  And then, for some unknown reason, you swing at a 2-0 pitch...and you foul it off.

Not an epic fail (we will get to that later), but nonetheless a fail and we all know that when a rookie fails it is almost always elevated to the epic level. 

Then he redeemed himself.   Psyche.   He grounds out to second base on the next pitch.  Squared that one up, didn't he?    Now, if he takes that 2-0 pitch, maybe even takes the following 2-1 pitch to go 2-2 and then grounds to second base, that is probably acceptable from your #9 hitter whose OPS is made up of almost equal parts of his OBP and SLG and whose OBP is almost entirely made up of his batting average, if you get my drift. 

So, we call that 2-0 swing a rookie mistake.

But wait!  The next batter is Bradley Zimmer, another rookie.  Following in Gonzalez's footsteps he goes 2-0.   Then, on the next pitch he tries to hit a ball almost in the dirt and weakly grounds out the pitcher.   For a second it looks like his legs are going to redeem his brain fart by legging it out.   But the replay guru says 'no' and Zimmer is called out on appeal.   So now it looks like our second rookie learned nothing from the first one and failed even more epically that Gonzalez, topping a ball that didn't even make it to the pitcher.

As Shoeless Joe Jackson said in 'Field of Dreams', "Rookies?!#@!?"

Then we went from bad judgement to bad baseball with Gonzalez's epic fail in the 8th.  When it rains it pours.   Maybe in July we will forget about this but, right now, rookie stupidity hurts, and I am a rookie-lover. 

The rest of the story

 OK, for those of you who are old timers like me, you may remember the Paul Harvey show.  He would always start it with some statement and, I think, end with "And that's the rest of the story".

Well, today we had the 'rest of the story' for the 2017 baseball draft.  The last 30 rounds.   Let me give you some statistics going back to recent Indians' drafts from 2011-2016, the years where each team only drafted for 40 rounds.

• Only about 50% of the guys drafted after round 10 even signed, most of them being college players (see below). 
• Only 7 guys have made the majors in rounds 11-40 in those 6 seasons (Adam Plutko, Ben Heller, Cody Anderson, Shawn Armstrong, Shawn Morimando, Cody Allen and Ryan Merritt, the last 5 from the 2011 draft!).
• In those years, the Indians drafted 58 high school players in rounds 11-40 and signed 7.  Of those 7, only Morimando has actually made the majors.   

 Given the above information we should not expect much out of the later rounds.  By my count the Indians drafted, in rounds 11-40, 11 HS players, 11 college juniors, 4 college sophomores or freshman, 3 college seniors.  Not an unusual distribution.

Here is my take on these picks.

1. I think it was very unusual for them to start the last day with 3 HS players in the first 4 picks.  Usually HSers  drafted that late don't sign as my statistics above show.   I don't understand this as these guys were not even highly ranked so they can't really even qualify as flyers, selected in case we had extra bonus money left.   Why spend these picks on guys who are not necessarily that good and, as HSers, aren't as likely to sign.  I understand teams liking who they like, but I don't get these picks.  Time will tell what to make of these picks.

2. The lack of emphasis on college seniors (4 in the entire draft) and the emphasis on pitchers who are college juniors is interesting.   In many cases these guys go back to school unless the bonus money is there.   As none of them are very highly rated, it will be interesting to see how many of them sign.  At the same time, guys like Heller, Cody Allen and Shawn Armstrong came by this route so this is a group worth watching.

3. The two true flyers they took late (Cole Turney and Asa Lacy) are guys to watch.   They were projected to go in the 3rd-5th rounds.  If we do have extra bonus money look for the Indians to target one of them.

In summary, the last day of the draft was relatively unexciting for the Indians.   Not surprising in that we shouldn't have much, if any, extra bonus money above $100,000 to throw at any of these guys if we sign our top 10 picks.   There may be some surprises in this group, however, as it looks like the Indians are really trusting their scouts to go out and find the overlooked guys.   As they have had a lot of success identifying relievers in this group, look more at the pitchers rather than the hitters in rounds 11-40 and expect a relatively low signing rate in this group this year.   I would say 12-15 of them signing, at the most.  I could easily be wrong on that but this is what the breakdowns and history tells me.

Teams Like Who They Like

In the past when I have asked experts about why a the Indians would draft an unranked guy in the 3rd round I almost always receive the answer: "Teams like who they like".

Well, that is as unsatisfying as a hot fudge sundae hold the hot fudge and hold the ice cream.

How many times in the past have the Indians drafted a guy in the early rounds who was a complete unknown?  I remember one time in particular, when the Indians drafted Cody Bunkelman, his college coach said the Indians maybe showed up one time...for a kid they drafted in like the 5th round!  Bunkelman lasted about a year and a half and he was gone.

In recent years when we had draft bonus limits, the Indians seemed to have very understandable draft strategies.

Which brings us to this year.   Below is a list of the guys the Indians drafted in the top10 rounds this year.   Next to each is their draft slot, the Baseball America ranking and the MLB ranking.   It is important to note that Baseball America ranks 500 players and MLB ranks only the top 200. 

Player, Level, Draft Slot, BA ranking, MLB ranking

Quentin Holmes, HS, 64, 50, 33

Tyler Freeman, HS, 71, 97, 141

Jonathon Rodriguez, HS, 102, 223, not ranked

Ernie Clement, College Jr., 132, 92, 114

Austin Wade, College Sr., 162, 355, not ranked

Michael Rivera, College Jr., 192, 175, 172

Kirk McCarthy, College Jr., 222, 219, not ranked

Eli Morgan, College Jr., 252, 257, not ranked

James Karinkcak, College Jr., 282, 122, 163

Jesse Berardi, 312, 105, 166

OK, what do we make of this?  From the scouting reports it looks like we have drafted a bunch of guys with 1, 2 or 3 tools.  Nothing wrong there as most of the 5-tool guys are gone early in the draft.   The goal, then, should be to pick guys with one outstanding tool and one good one.  It sounds like the Indians may have done a lot of that.  From a fan point of view this isn't as satisfying as it could be, being like a hot fudge sundae, hold the ice cream.

What pops out right away, though,  is that a lot of these guys (6) are ranked about where they should be (for their draft slots) based on two different ranking systems.  Yes, there are differences but, as the title says, those differences can mostly be accounted for by different teams valuing different players slightly differently.  Four of the picks, the 3rd and 5th round picks and the 9th and 10th round picks are not in line with their talent slot.  The first two were drafted higher than their talent slot would indicate and should be signable for less than their slot.   Their 9th and 10th round picks were guys who were rated much higher than where they were drafted.   They are both college juniors and could go back to school if they can't get enough bonus money.  As both thought they would go in the top 5 rounds, they likely will take significantly overslot bonuses to sign. 

When I consider their top 10 picks as a package, the Indians appear to have taken the path that makes perfect sense: draft HS kids early, then draft college guys for the rest of the first 10 rounds and, on average, draft guys about where they slot in terms of talent, selecting only one college senior, and a relatively highly ranked one, at that..  As I said before, signing HS kids at the end of the first 10 rounds is difficult.   College juniors, however, tend to sign and for slot in the first 7 rounds.   Thus, the Indians got HS talent at the top and more assuredness of signing by drafting college players in the rest of the top 10 rounds.  So it looks good on paper but the question is...can the Indians sign all these 10 guys and not go over their draft budget?  I think they can.   Here is how:

Holmes signs for $100,000 over slot

Freeman signs for $65,000 under slot

Rodriguez signs for $100,000 under slot

Clement signs for slot

Wade signs for $150,000 under slot (he still gets about what BA projected him for as talent)

Rivera signs for slot

McCarthy signs for slot

Morgan signs for slot

Karinchak signs for $200,000 over slot

Berardi signs for $200,000 over slot

That would give the Indians a draft overage of $185,000.  To not lose a first round draft pick next year they have to spend less than $191,000 (5%) over their $3.829 million budget. Thus, the Indians are good as far as that.  As Karinchak and Berardi were expected to go in the first 5 rounds, giving them a bonus near the middle of the 5th round (roughly $340,000) seems appropriate.

So, given their lack of first round pick and very low slot in each round due to the Indians' great regular season record last year, I think this has been a very good draft, on paper.  Now, the only questions are have the Indians drafted the RIGHT players and have they drafted players they will sign?  If they do sign all of these guys and get a few Cody Armstrong, Austin Adams guys late, this could be a very productive draft, something that more than a few fans were thinking might not happen this year.

Thinking about today's draft

OK, last night's post was rambling but, after the Cavs game, I hope you will bear with me.

So, today, let's have a few more, hopefully, lucid thoughts about yesterday's picks and today's draft.

Yesterday the Indians drafted two HS position players who were ranked about where they were drafted.   This implies they are looking long term, maybe with the thought of building on last year's HS-heavy first 10 rounds.  Good for them.  It also implies that they are not looking to draft a flyer who would require a higher than slot bonus.   Again, I applaud that approach as it becomes an all-or-nothing approach as, if you do that, you are likely to draft low cost college seniors who have less upside just to save bonus money for your flyer. .

So, what's ahead for today?

Hopefully the Indians will continue to draft HS players with talent appropriate to their slot.   The only issue is that it is hard to get good, highly-ranked HS players who will sign for slot money in rounds after 5.  The bonus slots are just not high enough to make it enticing enough for that kid to walk away from a college scholarship.   So the task of the scouts becomes more difficult: find a HS player who, while they have a college scholarship offer, don't really want to go to college and will accept slot money in the first 10 rounds...and do that with 29 other teams looking for the same types of kids!

So, expect some college juniors and maybe a juco player to be drafted today.  

What you don't generally want to see is, if you are drafting for slot talent at slot prices, the drafting of guys who aren't ranked.  If a team does that in the first 10 rounds those draft classes, in my experience, end up in drafts that really, really stink and are unproductive at producing ML players. 

Again, I like Skoug and Howard from TCU somewhere in the top 10 rounds.   Aside from that, I hope we take HS kids.

The first two picks are in the books

OK, so far the Indians went for HS kids.   Not that surprising.  I love the strategy of gambling on HS talent and trusting your scouts.   Without a first round pick your likelihood of hitting a HR with a pick increases when you pick a HS kid compared to a college kid when you have to wait 63 picks into the draft to get someone.  I mean, as good as college kids are, after the first round or so, they aren't that good, generally.   Look how many HS kids are drafted and signed.   Then imagine that your draft pool of college kids in a particular year has already been depleted of talent three years before that due to HS players signing.  Yeah, some kids don't sign out of HS and some develop in college but those guys are generally gone early. 

So, the upside for a team like Cleveland without a first round pick is to go with HS kids if they are doing a straight up, draft for your slot, strategy.

Looking at Quentin Holmes (ranked 50 by Baseball America) and Tyler Freeman (ranked 97th by BA), we drafted guys who were appropriate in talent for their slots (64 and 71) within the margin of error of what one scout sees compared to another. 

Are these the RIGHT guys?  Only time will tell.   That's what your scouts and player development staff are for. 

So, let's set up day 2 and rounds 3-10.

The Indians have likely not saved any money on Day 1.   So, it is likely they have adopted an approach that would not take any flyers and would draft guys in the next 8 rounds who will sign for slot or near slot.   The only way that strategy goes in the tank is if the Indians draft a guy in round 3 who will cost a bundle.   If they do that then expect them to take a bunch of college seniors and low ranking HS players as I described in my previous post.

If they choose to continue this draft for talent in a slot strategy, I hope they will continue drafting signable HS kids who are talented (to their slot) in rounds 3-10.  No flyers, but no underslot kids, either.  There is no need to save budget money on this draft, at least not more than say $250,000 or so to sign this year's late round Luke Wakamatsu guy. 

So, if the Indians follow the strategy I think they should, tomorrow will be more HS players with maybe a college guy in round 3 if he has some significant upside.  I still like Skoug and Howard sometime in the first 10 rounds with the rest of the guys being HS picks.

That being said, signing quality HS pitchers becomes incredibly more difficult after the first 3 rounds so I look for them to grab the best, signable HS pitcher in round 3, if Skoup is available in round 4 take him, then draft some HS position players and Howard in rounds 5-10. 

BTW, on a personal note I really don't like Curry and the Warriors.  They have this sense of entitlement that is just wrong for young athletes to see.  I am very disappointed for young players to see the way they act.   Even my daughter, who is an athlete but not a basketball player or fan, picked up on that.  Pathetic.  Champions, but pathetic.  LeBron was great, Kyrie was great, Love was very good and Thompson showed up, finally and Smith wasn't bad, but, frankly, I just don't see the Cavs being able to compete with the Warriors as long as the Warriors remain healthy.  Good season by the Cavs but when you unbalance the evenness of the two teams by adding Kevin Durant to one of them, you have pretty much decided the NBA championship before the first regular season game.  And, I have to say, Korver and Williams and the other in-season pickups were a waste of time, money and draft picks.   Unfortunately guys like that can't play against the Warriors and, particularly Korver, I am very disappointed that he played so poorly missing many open shots.  We needed him to do something and, frankly, he did nothing of value, nor did Shumpert and, to a large extent, Jefferson.  Korver had one shot at a ring and blew it.   It's very unfortunate but that is the case.   He tried hard in other aspects but if he isn't hitting 3s he shouldn't be on the floor.  End of rant.

Let the draft begin!

What a night to start the draft!  

First, the Indians don't even a first round pick...or even a supplemental first round pick.   Their first pick is #64 and their second pick is #71, both of which will be announced on TV tonight...and the end of a long TV show.

Second, the Cavaliers are playing in another elimination game tonight.   Either the city will have a loss hangover or a win hangover tomorrow and few people will worry about the baseball draft.

Third, the low draft status of the Indians' picks mean that the odds of getting more than one impact player out of this draft are minimal. 

For those of you who don't remember what I posted after we signed Encarnacion, here are two scenarios I presented back then:

(1) you place all your eggs in one basket drafting a guy projected to go in the first roun who has fallen into the second round for whatever reason and draft college seniors who will sign for $1000 or medium-ranked high schoolers (think guys in BA's top 500 in the area of 250-400) who will sign for slot or below slot money.  Think of drafting a guy like last year's Nolan Jones plus a bunch of college seniors like Michael Leftkewicz and HSers like Samad Taylor, both from last year's draft.  Hey, this could work out great for the Indians if they take a gamble and it pays off.  For people who want to look in the most positive light, the Indians picked up Albert Belle years ago when he dropped due to questions about his personality.

(2) You let your scouts do their work and draft guys appropriate to where they should be drafted but who the scouts think can turn out to be MUCH more than their current value.    To me, Jason Kipnis is a guy who falls in that category.   He would likely have been passable as a left fielder but, as a secondbaseman, would have been above average.  

In either case, don't expect us to take any 'flyers' after round 10.   There just won't be any money left over as most teams save most of the money on their first and second round picks.   Any money we save on our first couple of picks will almost surely be spent before round 11.   After that, it is $100,000 or less guys.   

I can't begin to give you a draft projection for possibility (1) but I can imagine one for possibility (2).  As a matter of fact, I will give you two lists as I think the Indians could go one of two ways: high schoolers who project long term and college guys like Bieber and Civale last year and Kyle Crockett in the past, who can get to the majors quickly.  

College Route:

#64 - Evan Skoug, C, TCU - I don't like this guy as a catcher but if he can play another position (like Kipnis was correctly projected to be able to do) then I love his LH bat.   If he can stay at catcher then his value is even greater.  I am hoping we can get him for a little under slot or, at worst, slot.

#71 - Drew Rasmussen - RHP - Oregon State - Now, I know he could very easily be gone at 71 but let's hope he isn't.   If he is gone then Wil Crowe (who we have already drafted twice), Corbin Martin (RHP, TCU) or Blaine Knight (RHP, Arkansas), the latter I would hope to sign for under slot or slot.  The first two might require a little over slot. 

#102 - Here is where I would take my one flyer on a guy who will cost me $1 million.  This could be a HS player or a college player who has dropped.  It will be made tougher as teams will have all night to talk to players who have dropped due to bonus demands or injuries or other reasons.   But, in this grouping of players who expected to go on day one but didn't, there has to be someone who thought they would get $1 million who would sign for that.   Note that this would take about $500,000 above slot for this pick, meaning we would have to draft mostly college seniors through round 10 and no 'flyers' for the rest of the draft as we would have no money left over.   Since the draft tends to be "What have you done for me lately" slanted, here is my guess for a guy who might be left at this point:

Jake Burger, 3B, Missouri State.  I think his actions at third base are such that he might not end up there and may. like Chisenhall, end up in RF.   He has hit badly this post-season against better pitching than he sees during the year.   I like him in this spot.   After Burger, I wouldn't have another guess until I see how the first night of the draft goes. 

#132 - I start looking for my college seniors here, finding the best ones I can.  Keegan Thompson, RHP from Auburn, who I think we drafted out of HS

#162 - Jerad Oliva CF - Arizona

#192 - Brian Howard RHP - TCU - At 6'9" I like this guy a lot as someone who could come on. 

#222 - Jake Latz LHP Kent State

252 - Kick Kennedy LHP Texas

282 - Ricky Tyler Thomas LHP - Long Beach State

312 - Keith Rogalla - RHP - Creighton

After the 10th round I see the Indians taking a lot of junior college guys and, unlike past years, NOT many, if any, HS guys.  Maybe one or two if they think they will have any money left over.  Historically, however, they have had very little success (Luke Wakamatsu is the one exception I can think of) drafting HS guys in the later rounds. 

I will be back with the HS scenario later tonight but to whet peoples' appetites, here are a couple of guys I am thinking about at #64 and 71 if we drafted HS guys at their approximate value:

64 - James Marinan RHP - Fla HS

71 - Greg Jones - SS - NC HS

One more thing: Let's go Cavs!  I had a dream that Kyle Korver will hit 7 3s tonight and the Cavs will win. 

Is it real or is it Memorex

Wow, if that title doesn't date me, I don't know what will!

For those of you who don't know this was an ad on TV purporting how good a quality recording you could make on this type of audio tape, so good you couldn't tell if it was the actual singer live or a tape of that singer.

But now to the point.

Early in the season you can't tell if a player's aberrationally (is that even a word?) good season will hold up the entire year.   If the player is only a minor leaguer there is the additional question of whether that performance will translate to the major leagues in the future.  

Let's look at some of the Indians' key (in my opinion) minor leaguers and their performances so far:

Triston McKenzie - This guy has been so good at such a young age that it made me make him my #1 Indians' prospect this winter.  Above Zimmer.  Above Mejia.  Above everyone.    Well, this season is even better.  If I had to make my list now, McKenzie would still be at the top.   I think he can be that good.  I think his performance is real and bodes well for his future.  His ceiling is really high.

Francisco Mejia -  Well, all those people (all three of them, thanks for reading!) who saw my rankings and thought Mejia was better are probably chuckling right now.  Mejia has been outstanding so far.   Better than outstanding.   He has been why-the-heck-hasn't-this-guy-been-promoted-yet good.  He is exceeding expectations which, as lofty as they were coming into this season, a pretty strong statement.

Mike Papi - He has been beyond good this year, especially against lefties.   To me he has shown more consistent power even in his outs whereas, in the last two years, his outs were really, really weak and his hitting against LHP was, well, terrible.  It is still up in the air whether this is real or not but it is encouraging, nevertheless, as EVERY area where he should be making improvements, he IS.

There are lots of other guys who are exceeding expectations this year but these are the guys who come to mind for me, as expectations for them have been high for some time and, if they reach their apparent, current potential, they could be a big part of the Indians' future.