Stupid move!

How can I say anything bad about our manager who has once again brought us easily into the post-season even with multiple hurdles.

But I will say something that I have said before.

His use of his starting pitchers is befuddling to me.

Look, tonight Clevinger is pitching a gem, leading 1-0 after 6 innings.   He sits at 87 pitches.

Then the Indians score 10 runs in the 7th inning.

Clevinger sits in the dugout for an eternity.

Looking at the relevant stats Cleveinger's ERA dipped under 3.00 after the 6th inning.

So the game is essentially over.   Clevinger has the win and will finish the season with a great ERA (2.98).

Plus he sat all that time.

So what does Francona do?   For some inexplicable reason (edit: I get the reason now, so he can get to 200 innings) he sends a cold, tired pitcher out there.

He gets two outs, one on a line drive (edit: so he gets his 200 innings and has an ERA under 3.00, win-win for everyone) and then (edit: Francona leaves him in and he) gives up a double and is replaced.   Cimber comes in and gives up a run.

So what is the upshot of this:   Clevinger has to pitch after a long layoff, maybe damaging his arm.

His ERA ends the season over 3.00.   Hey, at least he got his 200 innings, which he had before he gives up the double.  Hey, its not bad but anything under 3 is something to hang your hat on and is a separator from most other starting pitchers.

So what Francona is doing is beyond me.   Yeah, he can say what he wants but there was NOTHING to be gained by leaving Clevinger in the game after he got to 200 innings, more to be lost than gained by putting him back in after the 10 run inning (+ is he got 200 innings, - is he pitched after sitting for a long time at the end of a long season and - he risked losing him sub 3 ERA) and everything to lose if he has residual effects from coming back cold after such a long layoff).  Let's hope there are no lasting effects on this kid's arm going into the playoffs.

Review of minor league predictions

Projection - Columbus 62-82 

Actual - 73-67, 0.5 games out of the playoffs

Comments - Well, the power of the minor league veteran, a good manager and a good organizational attitude actually paid dividends.   I have to admit I just don't get it.  I have seen AAA teams with many more veteran minor leaguers who would have really bad records.  I really expected this team to tank as we tended to bottom feed with the minor league veterans we had and the actual prospects at AAA were not good.   Congrats to the Clippers for the success they had.  

Projection -  Akron 86-58

Actual - 78-62

Comments - Well, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while.   Even though not all of the prospects did as well as I anticipated, the team still had a good record and made it to the league finals.   

Prediction - Lynchburg - 76-68 - 

Actual -  71-66

Comments - Blind squirrel part deux.   This team, devoid of any real star prospects except for the late season promotion of Jones, still did well.

Prediction - Lake Count - 72-72

Actual - 60-79

Comments - I overshot the mark here significantly.   I think it was the combination of lack of veteran leadership and maybe not the best field staff for this group of guys.  I think they were never going to the playoffs with this team but I don't see how they finished this bad.

Prediction - Mahoning Valley 42-34

Actual - 42-33

Comment - The personnel matched the predictions but the influx of the college guys from last year's draft who only pushed up one level from last year was the backbone of the team, especially the pitching staff.   The 2018 draft, as it usually does, produced pitchers and enough solid position players that the record was great.   I don't see a lot of guys being impact players in the majors from this team but there will be some major leaguers from the 2018 Captains.

Prediction - AZL Indians 1 - 32-24 AZL Indians 2 - 20-36

Actual -  AZL Indians 1 - 36-18, AZL Indians 2 - 32-24

Comments - Wow, this really surprised me.   I didn't think there would nearly be enough talent to fill two teams but I was wrong.   The combination of some older prospects, including some older Latin guys and 2018 draftees who performed well really did the trick.   As I said previously, this was not done with ML rehab guys, it was mostly done with young, real prospects.   I could see a much larger than average number of guys from these teams eventually playing in the majors.

So, there you have it.  Great season in the player development system.  Everyone should be proud.   Now to continue the development and let's fix Will Benson and Quentin Holmes and we will all need sunglasses to view the future.

Thoughts for a Tuesday

The baseball games are oscillating between meaningless and interesting.  

It was pointed out last night on WTAM that the Indians lineup last night contained 9 former all-stars. That was interesting.  Just like Bieber pitching well was interesting.

That the Indians lost today, given their division and the fact that they have no chance in heck of catching Houston means that today's game, and almost all the rest of them in the regular season, are meaningless.

I'll be honest with you.   If we didn't have to get some momentum for the playoffs I would be happy if they lost every game the rest of the regular season.  Crazy?  Unless a miracle happen, no matter what:

• We will win the division
• We will play Boston in the first round and, likely, won't have home field advantage in the playoffs in any series this year.
• Kluber will likely not win the Cy Young Award unless he is unbelievable for the rest of the year AND we win his starts.

The only thing still in question is whether Jose Ramirez wins the AL MVP and that can happen if he just performs well.   It doesn't matter how many games the Indians win the rest of the way (see Trout, Mike).

There is really nothing tangible to be gained by winning a single game the rest of the year.  Intangible?  Yes.  

So, there is no tangible reason to win games. 

However, losing games, now that is something else!

Right now, assuming we don't sign a qualifying free agent this winter, we would draft 24th in each round in the 2019 draft.   If we go on a big losing streak we might end up drafting as high as 17th.  This not only gives us a chance at better players it also gives us a bigger draft budget to work with.  By my calculation, about $1.2 million more in bonus pool!

You play because there is something to play for.  Even though these guys are professionals and have pride and would never lose on purpose, here is a vote for extreme mediocrity the rest of the way...assuming they turn it on and everyone is healthy for the playoffs.

The required I told you so article about Thomas Pannone

Last July I bemoaned the article about the trade for Joe Smith which cost us LHP Thomas Pannone and Samad Taylor.

I had seen both play and thought it was a ridiculous price to pay for a redundant free-agent-to-be reliever.

Yes Smith was good for the Indians but it made no difference as they lost in the first round of the playoffs.

In other words, they would have MADE the playoffs and LOST in the playoffs with or without Smith.

Off-season rankings seemed to validate that the value the Indians gave up was not as great as I thought (neither Taylor or Pannone made Toronto's top 30 prospects) and more fuel was added to that first when Pannone was suspended for 50 games for use of performance-enhancing drugs, something he vehemently denied doing.

Well today Thomas Pannone beat the Cleveland Indians.  

Nah, nah, nah nah to the Cleveland Indians for letting Pannone go in worthless trade.

To be honest, Pannone may never be a solid major leaguer.   He was promoted simply because the rebuilding/retooling/who can tell Toronto Blue Jays are looking at players for the future.  I mean, the guy has like 6 starts in AAA in his career and not much more than that in AA.

But he beat the Cleveland Indians today providing one of the final nails in the coffin of their chances of having home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Pannone has already provided two wins for his new team and likely will provide a number more.  

Hey, I was not against trading Pannone.   Just not for a redundant rental like Smith.   Said it then, say it now and will continue to say it in the future.  Hey, Josh Donaldson for a 26 year old middling prospect coming off TJ surgery?  I am on board with that gamble.  Just not the Joe Smith trade last year.  Never.  Ever..

Great Regular Season!

From an organization and affiliate standpoint, a great season for the Indians' minor league affiliates as5 of the 7 domestic affiliates make the playoffs and a 6th, Columbus, falls short by a half game after an end-of-season losing streak.

Winning in the minors may or may not correlate to winning in the majors but it is better than losing in the minors, for sure.

Here are some general thoughts without statistical backup for any of this:

• The Indians seemed to not use an extraordinary number of rehab guys or use the rehab guys they had, in Arizona or Mahoning Valley for extended periods of time to artificially make those teams stronger and get cheap wins that way.   This helps validate that the winning records were built on age-appropriate players.
• The Indians seemed, up and down their system, to use age-appropriate players.   Sure at AAA they have to use some minor league veterans but very few minor league veterans were used at AA and even fewer on the A league teams.   Again, I sure these numbers exist but my gut tells me the Indians did not manufacture wins for their minor league affiliates by stacking lower minors teams with older players.
• The Indians promoted guys at a good rate.   Beiber is a good example.   He could have spent half the year at AA and half the year at AAA and no one would have blinked.   Other guys either were promoted or were not promoted because they lost time to injuries.
• The Indians did not have a lot of superstars on these teams, just good solid prospects that their coaching staffs developed and turned into winners.

I think whenever you have teams with winning records in the minors it is a good thing.   It was a little disappointing that Columbus didn't make the playoffs in a year when the AAA championship will be settled in Columbus but, truth be told, it wasn't like the roster was gutted during the season as guys who started there mostly ended up there and some of them after stops in Cleveland.

I am a stats guy and so I have limited excitement about the minors except that I love the game in the minors and guys in the minors turn in, sometimes, to guys in the majors.   I will address this latter point later but, for right now, let's sit back and enjoy our 3 remaining teams in the playoffs and congratulates all the teams and their staffs in the minors for one of the best years in Indians' minor league history! 

One more in the playoffs

Congratulations to the Lynchburg Hillcats for being the second half champions and making the playoffs in the Carolina League as the Indians 4th minor league team to make the playoffs this year.

Update with tonight's results:

Columbus and Mahoning Valley lost tonight, making things tighter.   Here are the remaining scenarios with both teams having two games left.

If Columbus wins two games they are in.   If they split their last two it would depend on what Scranton Wilkes-Barre and Indianapolis did their last two games.  If they lose their last two games they definitely will not qualify as someone else would have a better winning pct. or record and would get the wildcard.

I don't know about you but it looks like the Clippers are out of gas.   No one is stepping up and the Indians calling up Eric Haase really does hurt.

As far as MV, they are in a better spot.   They are still 0.5 games ahead of Auburn in their division and, better than that, they are two games head of Staten Island and Brooklyn for the wildcard lead.  If the Scrappers win one of their last two games they are in the playoffs as the wildcard. If they win both they win their division.   If they lose two the only way they don't at least make a single elimination game is if Staten Island, which plays Brooklyn the last two games, wins both as they would have the better winning pct.   If Brooklyn wins two and MV loses two they are tied and my guess is that they will play a one-game playoff to see who actually makes the playoffs.

The Scrappers play West Virginia.   If they bring their A game they have a good chance but they didn't win tonight and have been playing not too well lately.  

Let's root hard for the Clippers and Scrappers.   I know that the Indians' minor leaguers have had a great run this year but it would be nice to have a historic season with 6 of our 7 US affiliates making the playoffs.

BTW, Akron is still one game behind Altoona, although they will still play Altoona in the first round of the playoffs.