It's almost January. Time to see if the cheapness creeps into the International Signing Period

 What normally happens starting July 1st has been pushed back to January to give us something to talk about this winter.

I am talking about the annual signing period for 16+ year old international amateurs.   Most of these come from Latin America.   

Indians Prospective has the following as a tacked post to the top of their Twitter page:

I just thought it was a good time to remind Indians fans everywhere that the lifeblood of an organization like the Indians is their prospects. 

The simple reality is damned if you do and damned if you don't spend money on international amateur signings.   While most of these guys never make it to the majors it is still probably the most cost efficient way to bring young players with upside into your farm system.  Generally, except for the top prospects every year, much more signable and affordable than even drafting and signing US high school players.  

You just can't try to save a few dollars here when the cost of your entire 2020-1 free agent class isn't supposed to exceed Cesar Hernandez' 2020 salary.   

So, let's hope the Indians have continued to do their due diligence and, in fact, sign more solid, high priced prospects than they have in the past instead of just trying to out-scout the competition.

A couple of things to think about:

1. You don't have as much room for international signees as you did in previous years as Mahonning Valley is no longer in existence, removing spots for about 35 minor leaguers.   So, for once, sign quality over quantity to get to your bonus pool cap.   

2. My guess is that followup scouting on some of these guys has been spotty, at best, meaning that some of those diamonds in the rough, even at bargain basement prices, may be not as realistic as just going with more established talent that lives more towards the top of the available players list this year.

In either case, however, the message to the Indians' ownership is the same:  Don't skimp on this talent acquisition method.   Spend like it was a normal year or, even better, spend like you were aware of the upcoming rebuild and wanted to get ahead of it by putting more money at the front of your player development pipeline instead of trying to back fill your prospect lists by trading veterans.  It is cheaper and more impactful on your long-term competitiveness.

So, Tribe fans, be watchful on Jan. 15th.   If the list of guys we sign looks the same as the list above then we are at least trying.   If we add top prospects not on this list then we are doing this the right way for a small market, near-to-a-rebuild team.   

BTW, here is a list of the top 30 international prospects in this signing period:

Top Baseball International Prospects | MLB.com

It would be nice to see as many of these guys signed by the Indians up to their almost $6 million limit.

As predicted, the Lindor trade beat continues

 NOTE: Updated 12/31/2020

The headline from the website reads:

"Francisco Lindor trade setting up to be a let down"

As predicted here, the writers covering the Cleveland Indians are lining up to set expectations low for what the Indians can get for Lindor.  This after all of them are saying how it is inevitable that the Indians will be trading Lindor this winter.

For those of you who read my posts you know how this rankles me.  The inevitability of the trade is bad enough but to set expectations for a bad return is beyond belief.   The 'Hey, I am just telling it as it is' mantra is pathetic.

Look, we are fans of the Cleveland Indians.   We have, in the past, paid our hard earnied money to watch them play, either in person or by subscription to MLB and/or cable channels.  We have also plunked down money (or our friends and relatives have) to buy Indians clothing, further supporting this team.   Hey, just by reading the on-line papers or a blog like this one we are investing our time to support this team.

Now is time that people grow a pair in regards to the Indians.   It's time to picket the stadium and team, either in person or remotely.   The Indians' management doesn't get to settle for the best return they can get for Lindor.   Giving away assets for less than they are worth is not the way to run a successful business.  

Yeah, I have heard the real estate analogies about you house being worth what someone will pay for it and not what you think it is worth but, frankly, in most of those cases the value people get for their house is closer to what they think it will be the longer they are willing to wait to sell.  Lindor is the same way.   If you trade him for less than he is worth then you are weakening the long-term future competitiveness of this franchise.  

The perception of the Cleveland Indians by the national media is that they will give away Lindor for less than what he should fetch.   That position is even magnified by fans of other teams who propose pathetic, spit-in-your-face, intelligence-insulting packages of castoffs in order to get Lindor to their team using 'Yeah, I think, given how cheap the Indians are, we could get Lindor for this' logic.

So, let's assume that Lindor is going to be traded.  What do we need to make this trade acceptable?     

That's simple.

A young, controllable starting outfielder.  

One strong arm, controllable reliever

One top 10-15 pitching prospect (I say pitching because outfield prospects, which is what I really want, are the most problematic as far as development and you can't have enough pitching).

One Class A outfield prospect, somewhat but not to highly ranked, preferably with good plate discipline as that makes him more projectable to make the major leagues

An example of a trade that would work for me is:

Lindor to the Yankees for Clint Frazier (major league outfielder), Miguel Yajure (pitching prospect), Jonathan Loaisiga (major league, controllable reliever) and Canaan Smith (Class A outfield prospect)

None of these guys are crucial to the Yankees winning in 2021.   None of them represent the top Yankee prospects (as they only have Lindor for one year, ostensibly).    Frazier is better than anyone we have in the outfield (including Josh Naylor who has a greater chance to be a big disappointment than the major league centerpiece of the Mike Clevinger trade should be!).  Loaisiga has had ML success and Yajure, even though still a prospect, has even had a little success in the majors.   Smith has great plate discipline and is showing a little power at low A which may improve as he moves up the ladder and he clearly beefs up a weak minor league OF prospect core from the Indians.   

Not a great haul but a good one.   The point is that this is the BOTTOM of what we should get.   Anything less than this would be giving Lindor away.   So Dolan, Antonneti and Chernoff, you have your marching orders.   Don't make me break out my picket sign!

UPDATE: For Dodgers fans out that here is what I would expect from the Dodgers:  Caleb Ferguson (LH major league reliever with good splits so the 3-batter rule should not impact him greatly), DJ Peters (OF prospect, 2021 ETA), Omar Estevez (MIF prospect 2021 ETA), Edwin Uceta (RHP prospect, 2021 ETA)

 The Dodgers have an excess of young, controllable relievers so Ferguson would be expendable.   Peters, Estevez and Uceta are still in the minors but are close to the majors with all having 2021 ETAs.   None of them are top 10 Dodger prospects so the loss to their farm system would be minimal.    This would help us rebuild more quickly and the Dodgers getting Lindor can help them offset some of the gains the Padres have made this off-season and put them in a prime position to sign Lindor to an extension without him hitting the open market.

Indians top propsects - January 2021 - Who is going to help in the rebuild and when?

 Wow, something we haven't thought about in while:  prospects.  

Well, we better start thinking about them because that's what a rebuild needs.  So this year we are going to do things a little differently, which you do in a rebuild or reloading or whatever this is going to be.  

I am going to list the prospects in order of who will most likely be the most help to the Indians in 2021, who is the best of the next wave (end of 2021, sometime in 2022) and finally, who are the best of the guys 2 or more years away from the majors:

Who will help most in 2021?

1. Triston McKenzie    2. Emmanuel Clase     3. Tyler Freeman    4. Nolan Jones   5. Nick Sandlin

6. Scott Moss  7. Logan Allen (the older)  8. Kyle Nelson 9. Cam Hill  10. Yu Chang  11. Sam Hentges 

12. Bobby Bradley  13. Daniel Johnson  14. Trevor Stephan 15. Jordan Humphreys 

Summary  - Seeing Nolan Jones on this list as #4 is a bit surprising.   But, right now, I see him as a platoon player because he hasn't shown that he can hit lefties...at all.  I think the guys who will impact the team this year may be minor league relievers and middle infielders.  I think these guys may not be the top-rated prospects but will get a chance and are likely to succeed.   I find it interesting that Bobby Bradley didn't even get a taste of the majors this year as the Indians were looking for offense and you would have thought they would have thrown Bradley against the wall to see if he stuck.  But no.  Ditto for Daniel Johnson.   He was a marginal prospect, a Greg Allen-type prospect.   The Indians think he is more but we will see.   I have high hopes for every Cleveland prospect as continued success of our farm system is our only hope right now.  

Who will help most in 2022

1. Eli Morgan  2. Gabe Arias  3. Owen Miller  4. Joey Cantillo 5. Cody Morris  6. Tanner Burns  

7. Juan Hillman  8. Adam Scott 9. Juan Carlos Mejia 10. Kai'i Tom 11. Oscar Gonzalez 12. Luis Oviedo

13. Kirk McCarthy  14. Mason Hickman  15. Bryan Lavatisda  16. Steve Kwan

Summary - This will be the most interesting group.  I think if we have a strong nucleus these guys will fit in as fill-in starters, platoon players, relievers or reserves to help the team win AND keep the payroll down.  There is a lot of talent here and, in the best scenario, we will get some quality major leaguess and maybe occasional all-stars from this group.  Note that I have put Tom and Oviedo on this group at the end.   I think it is likely we will get Tom back but Oviedo is not likely.   If we get him back he should help us sometime in 2022.

Who will help most after 2022

1. George Valera  2. Bo Naylor  3. Ethan Hankins  4. Daniel Espino  5. Carlos Vargas  6. Jose Tena   

6. Carson Tucker  7. Brayan Rocchio  8. Aaron Bracho  9. Allen Hernandez  10. Andres Melendez  

11. Gabriel Rodriguez 12. Yordys Valdez  13. Joe Naranjo  14. Petey Halpin  15. Angel Martinez 

16. 23. Logan Allen  17. Junior Sanquintin  18. Marcos Gonzalez  18. Milan Tolentino  

19. Christian Cairo 20. Lenny Torres  21. Ray Delgado  22. Matt Turner  

 23. Jean Mota   24. Aaron Pinto  25. Richard Palacios  26. Will Bartlett  

27. Will Benson  28. Jose Fermin  29. Korey Holland  30. Jonathon Rodriguez   31. Jordan Brown

32. Skyler Arias  33. Dakody Clemmer  34. Hunter Gaddis  35. Nick Mickolajchak 36.Victor Nova

Summary -   There is a lot to like down here as there is still the aura of star power in some of these gusy and a lot to dream on (Allen Hernandez's age and fastball velocity, Andres Melendez's youth and advanced defensive catching skills).   There are a lot of position players who have potential if they can learn to hit and a lot of the pitchers who have closer, setup man potential and a few potential starting pitchers to dream on.

In short, this rebuild will not be painless.   However, unlike so many teams that are veteran heavy and prospect poor, the rebuild, with a little luck, should be short and we shouldn't have to endure a long stretch of losing seasons. 

This is a franchise-definining moment!

 Anybody who reads this blog likely knows that what I am about to say is true.  

How we handle Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco going forward will define this franchise.   Period.

You can't halfway rebuild because you become halfway competitive.   

Either compete or rebuild.   We no longer are in a position to compete AND rebuild if we trade Lindor and Carrasco.

I don't even think we are in a position to compete if we keep Carrasco and trade Lindor, unless the return for Lindor is eye-popping.

So, let's discuss the rebuild.  First, let's put a timeline on it. We will need at least 3 years to rebuild this team which may coincide with when our division weakens up again.  So any asset that we currently have who is unlikely to be around in 2024 AND has real trade value is fair game to be traded.

Our tradeable assets are:

Shane Beiber - Mr. Cy Young could net a hefty return, enough to really jump start the rebuild.  In theory he will be here through 2024.  If we can add a year by renegotiating his contract to give us one of his free agent years then it is worth keeping him for the first two competitive years at the end of the rebuild.  If he is only here in 2024 then he becomes Lindor.   BTW, he is arbitration eligible next winter so, with a season in 2021 that nets another Cy Young, his 3 arbitration years might be too expensive for Cleveland. 

Francisco Lindor - Already discussed.  Not against trading him, just not for trading him for a bag of magic beans.

Carlos Carrasco - Again, get value for him that really helps the rebuild and I am on board.

Jose Ramirez - Mr. almost MVP is, like Beiber, worthless to this team in a rebuild if he won't be around when we come out of that rebuild.  However, he is extremely valuable to other teams.   He is only signed through 2022 and that last year is for $21 million. So, in a rebuild, he is out the door this winter but should net good players/prospects to help in the rebuild

Aside from those 4 there is likely no player on this roster who would fetch in trade as much as he is worth to this team over the next 5 years. 

So, that's the deal.   If you are going to trade Lindor you might as well trade Carrasco, Ramirez and Shane Bieber.   None will be around when we come out of this rebuild.   So they are not fan favorites or key pieces to competing.   They are just assets that should be traded to help our next wave of competitiveness.

So if you trade Lindor, let the rebuild begin....NOW.  Don't try to snow the fans into thinking this compete and plan for the future crap is going to work any more.  Teams are spending money.   We are not.   Last year and the year before showed how screwed we are because we won't pay for players we need to put us over the top.   Stop the tantalizing and come to grips with the reality of cash-strapped ownership.  

Wow, two months really flew by!

My brother texted me today and asked why I hadn't posted in a while.  I told him I was saving up my anger and keystrokes for when the Indians made a pathetic trade for Francisco Lindor.

But, what the heck, lets start typing now.

Trading Adam Cimber - This was a sign the Indians are going in the right direction.   Cimber is a gimmick guy and give me a hard thrower or even strike thrower any time rather than a gimmick guy.  Anyone know Josh Tomlin's phone number? 

Not picking up Brad Hand's option - Only one reason that I can see doing this.   If we couldn't trade Hand.   Picking up his option and then trading him before the season starts is the only thing that made sense here.   Yeah, you might get stuck with him but it isn't like he is Adam Cimber.   Hand was just named to the ML allstar team for the year.  Yeah, I don't know if I would trust him for another season as the closer.  I could smell a meltdown.   However, he had a great year.   Even if you picked up $4 million of his salarey (actually only cost you 3 because of the $1 million buyout) you could have gotten SOMETHNG for him.   Bonehead move by the Indians.

Not picking up Santana's option - This was a no-brainer.   They weren't paying him $17.5 million or even $7.5 million.   Good luck with the Royals!  I am sure he will have a good season again, but it wasn't worth the gamble.

Non-tendering Naquin and DeShields -  This is another sign the Indians are being financially prudent and going in the right direction.  Look, none of these guys were worth the money they would have made. 

Having Ka'ai Tom and Luis Oviedo picked in the Rule 5 draft - What can you say?  This happens to the Indians every year, it seems.  For every Anthony Santander there is a Jordan Milbrath.  You lose some and you get some of them back.   You do have to ask yourself, however, why not just DFA DeShields and Naquin if you knew you were going to non-tender them.  Then put Tom and Oviedo on the roster.  Note:  Oviedo is pitching well in winter ball.   The last guy we lost in the Rule 5 who was pitching well in winter ball at the time was Hector Rondon.   One final thought about the Rule 5 draft: If you look at all the guys the Indians have LOST in the Rule 5 draft and you look at all the success stories that the Indians have had drafting in the Rule 5 draft one thing stands out.  THE INDIANS SUCK AT THE RULE 5 DRAFT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Francisco Lindor trade -  OK, so this one hasn't happened.  But one trade like this HAS happened already.  And it was doubly bad.   Lance Lynn got traded to the White Sox.  Not only is that bad for the Indians in 2021 it is also bad for the Indians in terms of trading Lindor.   Basically, what the Rangers got for Lynn is what we can expect for Lindor: One prospect who will be in Cleveland's top 10 and one who likely will be somewhere in their top 30 or 40 prospects.   Basically, we will get very little for Lindor.   That's what the Lance Lynn trade tells us and that sucks eggs, big time!!!!!!.   Maybe we can wait and trade him after Christmas so it doesn't ruin the holidays of Indians' fans.