Thursday, April 28, 2016

Minor league impressions so far

I have been following the Indians' minor league teams for over 30 years and I don't think I have ever seen a start like this.   At this writing the combined records of Columbus, Akron, Lynchburg and Lake County is 55-27. 

As far as individuals here are my impressions of how our prospects (guys who have not used up their rookie eligibility) are doing:

Columbus - On the hitting side there are very few true prospects.  Erik Gonzalez is hitting pretty well and Giovanny Urshela's average is starting to rise after a terrible start.   Ronny Rodriguez is not really a prospect any more but is hitting in limited playing time and is a versatile player who might get a cup of coffee some day.   On the pitching side this team is filled with prospects of various upsides. Austin Adams and Jeff Johnson both have a chance to pitch in Cleveland this year and, aside from one poor outing by Johnson yesterday, these guys have been solid.  Josh Martin is just getting his legs under him after his Rule 5 disappointment but is starting to look good.   Speaking of  solid, all of the Columbus starters including prospects Ryan Merritt and Will Roberts, both soft tossers (relatively) and Mike Clevinger have all had success.  

Akron - The hitting prospects, for the most part, have gotten off to luke warm starts.  Guys like Clint Frazier, Bradley Zimmer and Nellie Rodriguez have shown flashes but are not raking consistently yet.   Yandy Diaz has been a walking machine and Jeremy Lucas (catcher) has been off to a fast start.   As far as pitching, most of the prospects on this team have been solid so far with the exception of Shawn Morimando and DJ Brown, who have been outstanding and the best prospects, Adam Plutko and Rob Kaminsky, who have been shaky so far.  Dace Kime is doing his best Wild Thing impersonation and his 'yips' at throwing the ball over the plate are about to send him to the DL or to extended spring training.  It doesn't take a lot of games where you aren't giving up any hits but still can't get out of the first inning due to walks and HBP for an organization to sour on you. 
  
Lynchburg - Mike Papi and Mark Mathias have been OK but I expected both to dominate more.  Papi's stats are deceiving as he hit 3 of his 4 HRs in two games.  He still looks overmatched sometimes but has great OB skills and always, when I am watching, seems to get a bat on the ball, but not always with authority...but this is his second year in the league and he SHOULD look good at this point.  Still, he is hitting the ball with much more authority this year which signals he is healthy and his career path may be, as a result, accelerating.   Bobby Bradley is looking real solid and all the other hitters have shown enough that the more questionable ones are on the upswing and the better known prospects are holding their own enough that there is hope they will get hot soon.  Julian Merriweather has been outstanding, Justus Sheffield has shown flashes but, despite the gaudy team record of 16-5, most of the rest of the prospects and suspects have just been mediocre in what is normally a pitcher's league.

Lake County - This has truly been a team effort as there aren't any truly elite prospects on this team.  Willi Castro has been the best of the hitters, mainly because of his youth. Tyler Krieger (seasoned high draft choice college player) and Francisco Mejia (second year in the league) are more of question marks as they SHOULD be hitting in this league.  Nathan Lukes has also been a surprise with great OB skills.  Given his inexperience and lack of track record, for me he has to keep this up all season to truly get on the prospect map.  I think all the starting pitchers have been pitching well so far and are pretty young so there is a chance, by the end of the year, there might be some high end (top 20 prospects in the organization) pitchers that come out of this group.  So, this team is truly intriguing and, for the first time that I can remember at Lake County, there are really no guys that are disappointments and, while there are very few standouts, there are lots of guys who are having intriguing enough starts that, four years down the road, this group could, possibly, turn out to be very special player development success stories.

Thursday, April 21, 2016

The Francona collapse

Terry Francona loves his players.   He loved them in Boston and he loves them here.   He also loves veterans.   Of course, we also said the latter about Eric Wedge and who can forget the Brandon Phillips fiasco that I wrote about at the time. 

So, here we are.   It is early in the season but we will soon forget guys like Colin Cowgill and Dan Otero.  Yes, they were just stopgap guys but they either couldn't play or weren't allowed to play.  The veterans brought in two years ago were also brought in for their veteran presence but they either couldn't or didn't play, at least not well.

It was written about Francona when he left Boston that he loved his players, covered up for them and, as a result, he lost control of the clubhouse.   I am not saying that is what is happening here but what is going on is not good right now.   Lonnie Chisenhall should not be in the majors.   He should still be rehabbing to find his hitting stroke.  But Francona says he trusts Chisenhall that he is ready.   Well, all Terry had to do was tune into MiLB.com and fast forward through games to watch Chisenhall at bats.  Even I could see he is not ready.   

Francona trusts Bryan Shaw, almost beyond reason, based on what he has done earlier this season and this spring.   He apparently doesn't trust anyone else because today he asked Cody Allen to go two innings in a non-save situation.   The Red Sox finished on a 7-20 tailspin right before Francona got fired in Boston.   I am not saying that this is what is happening here but I am starting to see some bad decisions which are costing us games.   Cody Anderson who was supposed to keep us from losing games in April is CAUSING us to lose games in April while Trevor Bauer is not helping us in the bullpen and some could say, maybe rightly so, that the reason we lost today was because he couldn't pitch effectively today (he actually was responsible for 3 runs although he was only charged with 2, the other being Anderson's that Bauer walked in!).  The stated goal was to have us get a faster start.   Neither Anderson or Bauer has helped. 

And speaking of helping, early in the season Rajai Davis wasn't and Tyler Naquin was on the bench.  Yeah, I know we faced a lot of lefties but Naquin is playing and hitting well now...just like he did in spring training.  Francona needs to learn that he is in Cleveland and if you are going to win in Cleveland you have to throw the rookies out there an hope for the best and NOT try to  backfill with mediocre or over-the-hill bargain basement free agents. 

I still hold to my 3-week old prediction about the Indians this year.   However, if they continue to tank against teams they should be beating, the blame will be 100% on Francona.  Not because he is the manager but, rather, because he ISN'T managing.

Monday, April 18, 2016

Are Chisenhall and Brantley ready?

Minor league rehab assignments can be fooling.   Rarely do you see 'little league' numbers from a major league pitcher or hitter when they go on a rehab assignment, even to low A.  In many cases the guy has mediocre numbers yet, when they get back to the majors, they pick up where they left off before their injury.   Sometimes it can be the highlight of a minor leaguer's season (or career), witness John Drennen homering off of Roger Clemens in a rehab assignment a number of years back.  

So, are Lonnie Chisenhall and Michael Brantley ready to contribute?   If you have watched them play in their rehab assignments as I have, I think Brantley looks more ready than Chisenhall.   Some will tell you that Chisenhall IS a AAA all-star/ML bust guy.    He hasn't looked like that so far.  His swing looks slow.  Brantley, on the other hand, looks fluid when he is out there but he isn't out there all the time. 

I don't really think either is ready to help the Tribe yet but we will likely soon see both of them.  Clearly we can afford to DFA Colin Cowgill and send out a reliever. 

Time will tell.  Let's hope both come up and start putting up huge numbers.   The Indians can sure use the offense.

Monday, April 11, 2016

...and the money keeps flowing in!

Giovanni Soto traded to Cubs for 'cash considerations'.

You have to love that euphemism!  In the old days they used to just say that you sold a player to another team.  Unfortunately, baseball has frowned on teams selling their players to other teams to raise cash since sometime between Babe Ruth being sold to the Yankees and today.  

It just sounds so pathetic to say that you sold a player as money, at least the pittance you probably got back, can't really buy you anything to make you more competitive...now or in the future.   Hey, some international bonus money, now I could almost buy in to that.   But just cash, and likely a small amount.   Hardly seems like what a fan of the Indians would want to get back in this type of deal. 

So, three borderline prospects in the last two days have been sold for what are likely to be small amounts of money.   Even if they got $100,000 per player (5 times the waiver price), the Indians only got $300,000, not enough to do anything with.  Let's hope the three players they added to the roster actually are worth more than the players we just sold.

There is a reason baseball frowns on one team selling its players to another:  you build a team with players and, unless the cash you get back is astronomical, you can't build or improve your team when you are selling players.  Baseball has, in the past, said that it is not fair to turn assets (read: PLAYERS) into cash as it weakens the major league product and, as such, is unfair to the fans and, I guess, the shareholders of publically traded teams.

Puzzling, to say the least.   Still waiting for that new soda machine or at least an explanation of how much they got back and what that money will be used for.   With the money from Soto, we might be able to spring for a new pool table, as well.

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Are we really this hard up for money?

The Indians traded both Zach Walters and James Ramsey to the Los Angeles Dodgers today for the dreaded 'cash considerations'.   Now, I don't know what that means but visions of Brad Pitt saying that he wanted a rival GM to 'stock his soda machine for 3 years' comes to mind.  

Now, you never know what will transpire.   Is this a prelude to the Dodgers selling someone to us for cash considerations?  Is the clubhouse getting a new soda machine?  I don't know.

The reality is that the Indians make $40,000 if they just lose these guys on waivers.   Did the Dodgers give them more than that and, if so, how much more would be enough?   These guys are assets and each of them is probably worth more than the $20,000 waiver price.  This price is arbitrarily set by baseball in its basic agreement.   It represents nothing more than a minimum dollar figure.  It doesn't, under any circumstances, represent the worth of a player.  

These guys are almost ML ready.  They can be insurance policies against injury for a team.  They are not like some low A reliever who might not even get to AA.   They do have tangible (albeit minimum) major league value because they are capable, right now, of being in the majors.   

Remember, these guys came to the Indians in summer deals for major leaguers.  They are not valueless, yet they were given away for some cash amount, probably lost in the bottom line of the quarterly spreadsheet for the Indians' finances.  Now they are leaving town for essentially nothing.

Seems like a waste, to me.   Hey, maybe they got some real, premium soda in that machine, who knows?

Monday, April 4, 2016

25 (and 40) man roster decisions

Every team has those prospects who you continue to hope against hope that they find some spark and make it.   Two of those guys for the Indians are/were Zach Walters and James Ramsey.   Both had flashes that tantalized you. 

Walters hit HRs.  He could play multiple positions on the infield and outfield.   He could run a little.   All he needed to do was put the bat on the ball, which he hasn't been able to do.   Even if he could hit .260 and cut his strikeout rate to 20%, with the power and the positional versatility he had, he could be a super-sub with pop.  He just hasn't put it together so far.

James Ramsey is a similar case.  He came to Cleveland off some gaudy numbers in AA for the Cardinals.   However, he really has not hit, almost not at all, for the Indians.   He can play center field, he can run a bit, hit for a bit of power.   He can handle the corner outfield spots.   But, so far, he can't hit for the Indians.

The minors are full of prospects like this.  Guys who stand out for their tools and promise, guys who once stood at the top of prospect lists.  Some reach their potential in another organization leaving the fans in their former organization gnashing their teeth, some never reach it at all.  Tony Wolters was that same kind of prospect.  A catcher/second baseman.   Think Craig Biggio, but without the hitting.    Let's hope we keep Ramsey and Walters but, frankly, I have seen guys like them over and over in the minors.  You think they are close but they never find that spark.   The only reason to keep them, really, is in case they figure it out you don't want them doing it for another organization.    When you are an Indians fan, you don't want any repeats of Hector Rondon.   Our resources are not deep enough to lose prospects on waivers who go on to good ML careers elsewhere.   So you hold on.  But for the Indians to DFA Wolters, Ramsey, Walters and future LOOGY Giovanni Soto, four prospects, in the past couple of months is pretty unsettling.   Whereas these guys had played (or not played) themselves into being fringe prospects, it hurts because you were hoping at least one in four of them became a useful major leaguer...in Cleveland.    Maybe they all pass through waivers and we keep all three of them and one of them figures it out in Columbus this year.   Or maybe not and this time next year they are playing in the minors for someone else...just like Michael Choice is doing for the Indians this year. 

Seeing what has happened to these prospects has to make you wonder about the quality of the Indians player development system.  It also has to make you wonder about how good Rob Kaminsky can be if the Cardinals parted with him to get the mediocre Brandon Moss.  We are the Indians.   We hope against hope.   It's what we do.