EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THIS POST
Let me start with the bottom line: In my opinion the Guardians draft has the following two bookend scenarios:
1. LaViolette and Walton are hugely successful and this draft is success because we can trade our duplicate position player prospects created by this draft for areas of need down the road, like the pitching talent we did not get in this draft If all that works out, this can be a successful draft.
2. LaViolette and Walton are not any more than their draft slot (Walton) and warts (LaViolette) would suggest that they are and neither becomes any level of impact player the Guardians need to fill holes in their lineup. In this case there isn't enough talent in this class to save this from being one of the least productive drafts in Cleveland draft history, especially since the players obtained in rounds 11-20 were so disappointing as ZERO of them, on paper, had any chance to impact the team in any way during our competitive window. Usually we have a HS P flyer or two who were good prospects but just dropped due to signability. This year, we didn't even have that in rounds 11-20.
The best I could EVER give this draft is a B+ and that is only if LaViolette reverts back to his 2024 form. If he stays at his 2024 form and Walton and Hynes play to their ranking, this draft is a C-. The optomistic fan would say "So, what I'm hearing is that could be a B+ draft" whereas most of the rest of us are saying "Holy crap, we're screwed"
So, there you have it. Either this draft is supportive of our competitive window (1) or it detracts significantly from the chances of us being competitive during that window (2). In other words, either this draft is acceptable or it is detrimental to the future of this organization.
I DIDN'T SEE THIS COMING. WHY WE ARE WHERE WE ARE.
Coming into this draft the Guardians had holes in their major league lineup in CF, RF, C, 2B and SS. Those holes weren't readily filllable from the minors as players simply weren't developing fast enough or were injured, or both. There was also a glaring lack of power hitters in the minors. College players can be available to impact your ML team in 1-3 years after being drafted. High school players usually take 4-5 years. Right now our competitive window seems like it runs until 2028, when Ramirez's and Clase's (and maybe Kwan, if he gets a QO) contracts run out and our young pitchers are getting expensive and approaching free agency. Drafting high school players won't impact the current window of contention plus we already drafted a slew of HS pitchers over the last 3 years and we also get a slew of young position players from international free agency.
So, drafting college hitters, especially power hitters which are really lacking in our minor leagues, seemed like the way to go. So, going into the draft, it seemed like a good plan would have been to draft the following in the first 10 rounds.
college power hitters (3-4)
college starting pitchers (4-5)
impact college relievers (1-2)
The players available in this draft appeared to support this was a decent path.
But when the dust settled on this draft, here is what we had:
college power hitters (60+ power): 2
college power over hit guys (50 power, 45 hit) 2
college starting pitchers: 0
impact college relief pitchers:0
We also drafted in the first 10 rounds:
college hit over power guys: 3 (2 firstbaseman and 1 secondbaseman)
future middle relievers:4
impact HS SP: 1
Wow, I didn't see that coming or even consider that it could end up this way, which is NOT a good way for this to have ended up.
The most glaring weakness was the complete lack of quality college starting pitching and impact relievers in Cleveland's draft class as that was substituted for with hit over power college guys, future middle relievers and HS SP.
The Guardians inability to obtain college starting pitching in the first 5-6 rounds is a huge negative in this draft but it doesn't end there. Drafting 3 hit over power college position players (2 of whom are first basemen) into an organization that already has way too many hit over power guys is not excusable, as the latter does nothing to strengthen the organization.
It appears to me that some of the key players the Guardians wanted (e.g., Fischer, Russell, Dzierwa, Obermueller) were gone when it came to the #64 and, of course, at the closely spaced #66 and #70 slots. So they panicked and, instead of slightly overdrafting 2nd/3rd tier college starting pitching that would still have been good adds to the organization, they drafted players they liked (Curley, Walton, Hynes, Hill) who weren't an organizational need nor in the plan for this draft. It is being kind, I think, to say that overdrafts like Walton and Hynes fell into the category of teams liking who they like and the oversight that our #1 prospect, Travis Bazzana, plays the same position as Hill. How it is possible that the Guardians, seeing what happened, doubled down on stupidity and drafted two slap hitting college firstbasemen (Nelson and Martinez) later in the top 10 rounds, is still unclear to me but it looks, to me, like a panic job when they got punched in the face, to paraphrase Mike Tyson by having the guys they thought they were going to get be snatched out from under them.
The Guardians not only didn't get the players they needed, they also drafted away from their development strength, college starting pitching, leaving the development staff to expend a lot of their future efforts just to get future middle relievers coached up to even make it to the majors.
If anyone is out there to see what COULD happen if LaViolette doesn't pan out and Walton is a 4th outfielder type, I will just let you watch and see.
FINANCIALS
It should be important to note that, aside from draft-eligible sophomore Curley, I don't see a single, not even one, player who should sign for over slot and many of the first 10 rounds should sign for underslot bonuses. As compared to past years, I don't see any way the Guardians will spend even their draft allotment, let alone that plus the 4.99% overage they have to work with before they lose a draft pick. If they spend their draft budget there should be an investigation.
LAST TEN ROUNDS
These rounds are, for the most part, throwaway rounds. The only good prospects that usually come out of these rounds are ranked HS SP who dropped during the draft, all of whom will require overslot bonuses. The fact that the Guardians wasted TWO picks on organizational college catchers and the only HS P they drafted were 5th tier guys who should not get or require above slot bonuses (think Keegan Zinn, Jacob Remily) is really telling that the Guardians didn't do their best in these last 10 rounds to bring talent like Bresnahan or even Sullivan into the organization. Bringing in college organizational catchers instead of taking flyers on HS catchers also showed a lack of thought for how to bring value to this organization.
THE FUTURE
Those of you who expected this draft to lift up this organization probably realize already that this will lie on LaViolette's shoulders. The rest of the guys drafted will likely either be trade bait if they pan out or oganizational filler if they don't. If Walton develops into a speedy power hitter that could help but let's be clear. It's LaViolette or bust. And that is not on LaViolette, it is on our draft room for not being prepared well enough to pivot once Mike Tyson punched them in the mouth.
