Thursday, March 29, 2018

Prospects who NEED to have good seasons this year

There are two uses for prospects:  to fill in holes for guys leaving by free agency and to use as trade bait.   We have already talked about our top tier prospects and my choices for breakout prospects.   What about the guys in the middle?  Which ones do we need to have good seasons this year to help us win now and in the near future?

Will Benson - He is years away and his development path, right now, appears long.   However, if he hits his stride at Lake County this year he becomes really attractive trade bait.   As his ETA to the majors appears to be after our current window has closed, I think that is his best use.   To make that happen he needs to have a great year at low A.

Mark Mathias - for some reason we have fallen in love with draft college and HS guys who project as second basemen.   Mathias should be considered a breakout prospect for this year given last year.  However, I think he is still a good prospect.   If he performs will he puts himself in line to replace Jason Kipnis next year if we choose to trade Kip.   We need him to perform this year to give us flexibility both at the trade deadline and next off-season.

Eric Stamets - There is no room for this guy at the inn and likely never will be.   However, if he shows that last year's power surge was not a mirage, he becomes valuable as insurance in the middle infield AND as tradebait in July.

Cam Hill - We need him to continue his development.  I anticipate he will be in the majors at some point this year if he does and would be in line to contribute this year and in the future, ala Nick Goody.   We need him so we don't have to trade away prospects like we did for Joe Smith last year.  Even though Panonne was suspended, that trade still hurts.

Mike Papi - Something!  Anything!   I still say that this guy is looking to put it all together and, when he does, he will be a late bloomer.   I would like that bloom to occur this year and he comes out of nowhere to help the ML team.

Juan Hillman - He is a key to me.   He has everything you want in a young pitcher and just needs to put it all together.   If he does, he could net us a good return in July, a VERY good return.  Or he could just be on the radar for the future as we approach our next ML winning window in 2022.

Ulysses Cantu - It's like this guy is just right there.  Still, to me, he is a longshot to even make it to AA at this point.   But I have a feeling about this guy.   He needs to come up big this year.

Gabe Mejia - He has been injured but, if he puts a good season together I think he is trade bait in July.  With Greg Allen present, I doubt he ever gets to Cleveland but some club somewhere, maybe in the NL, still overvalues speed.

Mitch Longo - People like him more and more.  If he can reproduce last year he may have a spot in the future of this team.   I don't see a one-year wonder netting us much in trade return but I do see him advancing his worth so much that we keep him and he becomes untouchable by next year at this time.

Remaining Free Agents - Any Interest?

OK, the roster is set.   But is there anything we can do to protect ourselves in case of injury.   Let's look area by area on this roster and see where some insurance might be useful and who is still available and let's do it by area of biggest need to least need.

BULLPEN

Outlook-  Look, Matt Belisle could end up as this year's flavor of the month like Nick Goody, Tyler Olson and Dan Otero have been in the past.  In fact, I am OK with him as the last member of this bullpen and with our depth in the minors.   Still, looking at our relievers, I think we could use some insurance, especially from the left side and anticipate that there are one or even more guys on this list who, if they signed with the Indians, could get SIGNIFICANT innings in important situations this year.  I think we still need that insurance.   So, for relievers, let's look in depth at who is still available:

Greg Holland - If we weren't cash-strapped this one would make the most sense as Cody Allen, Andrew Miller and Zach McAllister all become free agents after this season.   On a 2 year deal Holland might be a bridge to our next close-in-development, whoever that might be.   He would sure look good replacing Bryan Shaw in the 7th or 8th and as insurance in case Miller or Allen get hurt.  Not likely though.

Joe Blanton - Don't know about his physical condition but if he is healthy, he would look great on a minor league deal.  An ideal insurance policy in case someone gets hurt (nah, that never happens!)

Josh Collmenter - Ditto for Blanton although not the lock I see Blanton as in terms of being able to step into a competitive team and be effective.  

Jason Grilli - If he doesn't retire I don't see a fit.   41 year old guys don't want to go to AAA and that is where he would spend most of the season as I wouldn't even have him as my #1 or #2 minor league option.

Eric O'Flaherty - My choice for the stashed away minor league lefty.  Although his overall stats are pathetic in recent years, his left-on-left minors are still good.

Chad Qualls - Like Grilli, 39 year olds with lots of experience don't go to a club where their path to the majors is not a clear and clean one.

Zach Putnam - Unless he has no other options, I don't see him coming back to this club nor do I see them wanting him, especially when he might not be happy in the minors.

Drew Storen - Another guy I like and would stash in the minors.  I put him higher on my list than most of the other right handers available, especially as a 6th/7th inning, low pressure guy.

Huston Street - Could this guy really settle for a minor league deal?   I don't know but if the Indians could get him on one I would like the gamble.

OUTFIELD

We don't really need any of the remaining free agent outfielders but guys like Melky Cabrera, Andre Ethier, Seth Smith and Jose Bautista would all be interesting and useful pickups if we could sign them to minor league deals with a June 1st opt out clause.

STARTING PITCHER

You can never have too much pitching, right?  Still, what major league veteran who still thinks he has a lot in the tank would ever sign with a team that arguably has the best rotation in the majors?   No one, so that leaves out John Lackey, Ubaldo Jimenez, RA Dickey  and Matt Garza.  That leaves guys like Scott Feldman, Jeff Locke and Chris Smith.   I don't know what to make of Jake Peavy but that doesn't feel right to me for some reason.

INFIELD

Not a lot of need here so guys who would expect to play significantly like Brandon Phillips, Stpehen, Drew, JJ Hardy and Yunel Escobar would probably be out of the question.  Mike Aviles, Aaron Hill and Arismendy Alcantara would seem like the only fits for a minor league deal.

CATCHER

Really, we don't have a need here unless we can get someone who is willing to go to AA.   Like Crash Davis, a guy like Carolos Ruiz or Geovany Soto might be invaluable to help tutor some of our AA pitchers.   Don't think that will happen but you never know.

Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Minor league thoughts for 2018

OK, going in blind to the 2018 minor league season which starts at the end of next week.

That being said, here are some thoughts about the season and possible breakout prospects

1. It is interesting that the Indians are fielding two AZL teams.   I don't know the reasoning as, just looking at last year, I can't reasonably see the need.   Yes, they had one DSL team and one co-op team but looking at the rosters of those teams in the most optimistic light, I can see MAYBE 25 players who would be ready for the AZL, based on their 2017 stats.  Where the Indians would get another 25 or so players is beyond me.  Looking at last year's AZL roster I can see maybe 12 guys who could be coming back to the AZL team this year.  That leaves minimally about 13 draftees who would be on this team.   Hey, it's never a bad idea to give guys more playing time but is it worth the expense?  So we will assume the Indians have a plan (maybe showcasing their younger players hoping some become prime trade bait in July?) but it seems odd that a low budget team would spend money this way.  It should be noted that they plan to repeat the second co-op team in the DSL league.

2. The Columbus and Akron teams may have a really tough time fielding 5 quality starting pitchers this year.  At the same time, with Bieber, Civale and McKenzie, they will definitely have some quality arms.  

3. Overall, the Indians will have an interesting minor league season.   They need to develop a lot more prospects and, for the most part, they have to have some more organizational players step up to become true blue chip prospects.   Hard to do but that is what they need as the 2018 draft won't be huge for the Indians given that they had such a good record last year that their draft slot is really low.

3. Here is my first look at breakout prospects this year.  These are guys who I think will vastly improve their prospect status during the season.
  • Zach Plesac
  • Will Benson
  • Ben Krauth
  • Justin Garza (LB State version)
  • Brady Aiken (this is an easy pick as his prospect status can't get any lower than it currently is)
Next we will take a look at the final minor league rosters that will post next week.

Thursday, March 22, 2018

What to look for in 2018 with the top Indians' prospects

OK, given our winning record for the last few years and the fact that most Indians' fans are focused on our major league team and winning the World Series, it is natural to forget about the minor leagues and our top prospects.

However, we are Cleveland and we always have to be worried about developing prospects because we can't afford the top free agents.

So, let's take a look at what we would hope to get out of our top prospects in terms of development and performance in 2018.

Francisco Mejia - So he is going to play left field.   Great.   Those attempts with other guys like Yandy Diaz and Carlos Santana have gone soooo well!   So let's forget about the outfield experiment and worry about something that is possible.   His hitting.   Mejia has some things to get done yet in the minors.  His walk rate needs to improve.   He needs to avoid the Columbus trap of trying to hit HRs.   His swing is built for gap power and running into 14 HRs like he did last year will be fine if he can be a .300 hitting catcher.  As far as catching, he needs to continue to develop his all-around game.  If he can hit .330 with 10-12 HRs by the all-star break I think he will force his way into the Indians' picture.

Triston McKenzie -  This is an easy one: continue to pitch and develop at the rate he has in the past and stay healthy.   There is not a single thing I can see that he needs to change.   Just keep getting better and refining and, maybe, put on a few more pounds.

Bobby Bradley - With Bradley, this is easy.   He needs to hit lefthanders better.  If he does that his numbers, both primary and peripheral, will get better and become major league level.   Other than that, just keep getting better and maintain his energy level during the season.   People rave about him losing 30 pounds but I want to make sure he has the same energy or better now that he has lost that weight and that he maintains that energy through the entire season.

Nolan Jones - You could say he needs to just play but Jones needs to start tapping into his power and maintain his walk rate and strikeout rate.   Low Class A is notorious for inflating power numbers so if we don't see a bump in power we should all be concerned and we may see Bill Mueller comps start popping up.

Aaron Civale - My pick as the prospect I expect to see make the biggest jump this year, he just needs to pitch and improve and maintain his stamina throughout the whole season in the high minors.

Willi Castro - He needs to start cutting down his error rate while maintaining his offense this year at Akron.  Moving to AA is supposedly the hardest jump a player can make and we will see this year what kind of a prospect he is.   Given the other guys above him on this list, Castro stands a decent chance to be the Indians' top prospect this coming winter if he just keeps getting better at the same rate he did last year.

Shane Bieber - Simple.  Just keep pitching like you are.   It would be nice if some of his secondary stuff became plus to move him up from a 4-5 projection to a 2-3 projection as a ML starter.

Yu-Cheng Chang -He needs to make better contact.  If he maintains his walk rate and power he should be a major leaguer if he can just get his Ks down and him BA up to .270.

Greg Allen - Look, I like Allen but he is currently a relic of the 60s.   For him not just to be an extra outfielder he needs to develop more pop in his bat.   Look at Brett Gardner of the Yankees.   That is the bar for Greg Allen to get over.   If he can't he won't have much ML success, at least not in the AL.

Quentin Holmes - What does he need to get better at?  Everything.  This year he needs to show he can hit for average and draw walks.   Right now, if he can't do that, he stands a chance to not be a very good prospect very soon.  He has to show improvement.

Brady Aiken - Talk about a guy ready to fall out of even the prospect depth chart, Aiken is that guy.   This is a huge year for him.  TJ surgery should be far enough in the rear view mirror that his stuff and moxy should start to take over.   Pitching in the low minors as he will be, he should dominate.  If he struggles again, he could be an early washout as a prospect.

Connor Capel - If I had to make a guess as to which minor leaguer is likely to take a step backward this year it would be Capel.   So, what he needs to do is repeat his 2017 performance at Lynchburg and maybe raise his average 20 points while keeping everything else the same or nearly the same.

Eli Morgan - He just needs to continue to dominate and improve.  He could be the first Indians' draft pick from last year to make the majors.   All he needs to do is continue to learn how to pitch and refine his craft as he competes against tougher and tougher hitters each year.

There are many more prospects who either need to step it up a level or bounce back from disappointing years last year and we will get into those later.  But if all these guys listed above do what they need to do this year, the Indians farm system will look a lot better come December than it even does now.

Sunday, March 11, 2018

Time to revisit the Jason Kipnis trade

Last winter Jason Kipnis may have almost been traded.  May....almost...traded.  Who will ever know for sure but it was rumored that the trade was going to happen with the Mets.

However, if the Indians did explore trading him then maybe they should revisit that.  Not that the Mets would have been an ideal trading partner.  Far from it.

Still, the idea was one worth thinking about at the time and again now.

What if we trade Kipnis?

It clears up salary and clears up a starting position.  Depending on who we get back (hopefully bullpen help and a prospect) Erik Gonzalez AND Gio Urshela could make the team.  Or maybe Yandy Diaz makes the team and Ramirez moves to 2nd with Diaz at 3rd.

There are probably a number of potential trade partners and I will explore those in a later post.

But, if I am the Indians, my major remaining spring training activity is to find a trading partner for Kipnis.   I think the time has come to maximize our return on Kipnis and his spring has helped show that he is healthy AND what he can do when he is healthy.

I doubt Kipnis' trade value or actual value will ever be this high again.   For many reasons we need to trade Kipnis.

Spring training and prospects

It seems at this point in spring training every year I am writing this kind of post.

Francona likes veterans at backup/complementary roles.   And how can you argue with the success he has had?

The problem is that we have not done a great job of managing our roster to manage our prospects.  The result is that this spring training Ryan Merritt, Eric Gonzalez and Gio Urshela have to make the 25 man roster or exposed to waivers.

If your eye is on the prize of winning the World Series you probably say 'So what?'

The problem is that we can not keep bleeding prospects.   Jesus Aguilar last year was lost in such a way and, with reasonable playing time in Milwaukee (yes, the Milwaukee that had a really good season last year) he did pretty well, especially against lefthanded pitching.

I just don't think you can keep plugging in veterans in backup/complementary roles.   If you do you will continue the lose viable prospects.  

The truth is that we will get essentially nothing for Urshela, Gonzalez and Merritt, even if we trade them near the end of spring training.  Unproven rookies are not worth much in trade but are very valuable to a team that WILL find a place for them, just like the Brewers with Jesus Aguilar.   Small market teams can't do that.   They need those players for July/August trades and, even more, they need the payroll flexibility keeping some of those guys on your 25 man roster gives you.   AND, you protect yourself for the future when you lose veterans to free agency.

I don't know how we will do it but we have to start doing a better job planning for rookies to be on our team every year.   I just don't think we can suffer the frustration of losing these guys for nothing and then having to backfill complementary player roles on our team with more expensive veterans (think Boone Logan, among others).

So, find great trades for Merritt, Gonzalez and/or Urshela or keep them on your roster and do a better job of incorporating your 40-man roster into your 25 man roster and don't bring in expensive veterans for roles these young players can take.   It is just not good business for the Cleveland Indians to keep throwing these players away for nothing.

Today Merritt, Urshela and Gonzalez.   Tomorrow Yandy Diaz, Bobby Bradley, Tyler Naquin and others?  I vote no and I say the Indians need to do a better job of planning so as not to lose those guys for nothing like we did with Aguilar, Hector Rondon and others.