Wednesday, January 26, 2011

January 25th update

Just wanted to follow up on a couple of things:

1. Nick Punto to St. Louis - First, GREAT news for us.  Second, as expected,St. Louis  fans and media scratching their heads.  You had Brendan Ryan, you gave him away, and you signed Nick Punto.  Huh?  Interestingly enough, reading their blogs and forums, they have the same die hard contingent of fans and bloggers that we do that give the FO every break in the world, rationalizing every head scratching decision.

2. Jorge Cantu to San Diego.  Not to say I am THAT disappointed.  However, if they were going to give 450 plate appearances to a veteran at third base I would rather have given them to Cantu than to Jayson Nix or Jason Donald.  To me, you stck Goedert there and close your eyes when the Indians take the field.  Even if Goedert is a bad thirdbaseman, it's like the difference between 94 losses and 101 losses.  No big deal.  BTW, as Joe Inglett hits left-handed maybe he doesn't make as much sense as I thought.  It was just an emotional knee jerk on my part.

3. MLB.com did their top 50 prospects rankings.  If you give 50 points to the #1 prospect, 49 to their #2 prospect and so on, here is what you have:

    a. The Indians ranked 24th in baseball with 15 points (from Lonnie Chisenhall ranking #36 overall).  There were 4 teams who didn't have a player ranked and the the Red Sox (9 points) and the Cubs (5 points) had a single player ranked lower than Chisenhall.

    b. In our division EVERY team had more points than us.  The Royals had 5 prospects rated higher than Chisenhall with the 6th rated right below Chisenhall and led the rankings with 6 total prospects.  Both the Tigers and White Sox, like the Indians, had one player ranked but it was a significantly higher-ranked prospect.   The Twins had two prospects ranked below (but not that much below) Chisenhall.

     c. In perusing the top 10 prospects at every position only Jason Kipnis (#4 among second basemen) could be added to Chisenhall (who also finished #2 among third base prospects).  Some of this, e.g., in the pitchers, is due to just a lot of prospects at those positions, but no Alex White or Drew Pomeranz?  disappointing.

Here is a link if you want to read more about the rankings:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110124&content_id=16493480&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

In summary, just another bit of evidence that the farm system doesn't look really strong right now.  I haven't received my BA Prospect Handbook yet but it will be interesting to see if we are ranked higher than 24th.  We probably will be but that will be based on depth, not star-quality prospects.  We need to fix that and, yes, the Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia trades did not help that. 

4. In response to a comment I wanted to talk a little about my top 100 prospect rankings.  Here are some of the criteria I used:

     a. If a player is similar to another player in ability and potential, the one closer to the majors is ranked higher, assuming similar production.

     b. Using the Brad Snyder theorem (i.e., if a guy has some huge watchout in his stats in rookie ball, it probably is a huge red flag) some guys (e.g., Lavisky, Wolters) are ranked lower than might be expected.  I know they say Wolters will hit.  I will have to be convinced of that, hopefully starting this year.

     c. Some people may wonder why I rank Kipnis ahead of Chisenhall.  First, I look at the AL where offense dominates.  I think Kipnis and Chisenhall project to be the same defensively (I am not as high on Chisenhall at 3B as some are) and Kipnis is above average for his position offensively while Chisenhall projects, to me, to be Casey Blake, or league average/a little above.  So, that's why the ranking. 

     d. Why did I rank the somewhat wild Pomeranz ahead of White?  I just think he projects to be the more effective ML pitcher IF he reaches that projection.  I think White will be solid league average but Pomeranz has a ceiling of Cliff Lee.

     e. Kyle Blair over Joe Gardner.  Like it or not Gardner has the kind of stuff, almost gimick stuff, that plays up at lower levels.  Hey, all these kids have seen a good fastball but good sinkers, changeups, etc. are more effective at lower levels of the minors, in my opinion.  Blair has the kind of stuff that I think plays better at the ML level than Gardner.

     f. Why Haley, Mills, Hodges, Cid, Head at the bottom?  Last year I got burned in ranking guys higher who I thought had some upside left (e.g., Stephen Head and some of the relief pitchers) only to have those guys cut in spring training or shortly after that.  I think it is possible (moreso for Mills, Hodges and Head than Haley or Cid) that some or all of these guys are released at the end of spring training.  The guys ranked ahead of them on the list have, in my opinion, a better chance of making an opening day roster, even if just as organizational soldiers who have to play themselves into prospects (as Tyler Sturdevant did last year).

     g. Some guys made this list (Carlos Moncrief the hitter, Hunter Jones, Striz, Mark Brown, Francisco Jimenez) because I see just enough potential in them that, if given the chance, might end up giving us some bit part minutes in Cleveland down the road.  Most of these guys go the way of the Rucker kid from a couple of years ago but, at the time, are intriguing enough for the organization to give them more than the average number of years before cutting ties with them.

    h. Looking at the list, the guys most likely to be surprise releases at the end of spring training could be Connor Graham, Joey Mahalic

    i.  Some guys were tough calls.  Jordan Henry over Tyler Holt?  Statistically and projection I think this makes no sense.  Henry's upside is much smaller.  Still, Holt has this hothead thing that may be true or just youthful zeal.  THAT is why Holt is ranked slightly lower.  Bigger upside, red flag possibly preventing him from getting there.

     j. For guys like Matt Packer, TJ McFarland and Chen Lee, they will have to prove it to me over and over again.  I am not sold on any of them due to their lack of true stuff.  I like Chris Jones more because he is left-handed and would like to see if Joey Mahalic could flourish as a closer.

    k. As always, there will be some headscratchers when the minor league teams are populated.  As I have said already, I think Jess Todd goes the way of Neil Wagner and Brendan Ryan.  I think the organization doesn't like him and he has no chance here.  Just my opinion.

That's it for right now.

Friday, January 21, 2011

Comments so far

Well, I have been at this for about 3 months now.  I have made posts on the following subjects:

1. International FA signings
2. Winter ball stats from Australia
3. 2011 draft
4. Top 100 prospects
5. Commentary on what the Indians have done this off-season.

Obviously the last one is the one I post on the most, i.e., what the Indians do.  However, I wanted to get your feedback on the other topics and see what you think.

So, what do you think?

Indians Top 100 prospects - January 2011

I have updated my original top 60 list from November to move up to 100 prospects.  Note that Josh Rodriguez and Jose Flores  (bolded) are still on the list as we still haven't officially lost them.  Note also my man love for Jordan Brown, placing him higher than almost everyone else in the world.  Sorry, it's just me.

UPDATE: January 31, 2011: I am updating this with information from BA's prospect handbook.  As the information is BA's I will only speak in general terms.  "BA Top 31" will mean that the player is somewhere in the top 31 prospects BA rated for the Indians.  "In the team photo" means that the player was listed in the depth chart but did not make the top 30.  The most interesting thing is the total omission of Paolo Espino, Juan Diaz  and Chris Jones.   BA does this sometimes, though, as their depth charts are not always accurate, sometimes even containing guys like Omar Aguilar who are not even prospects.
1. Jason Kipnis (#3 on BA Indians' top 10)
2. Drew Pomeranz (#4 on BA Indians' top 10)
3. Lonnie Chisenhall (#1 on BA Indians' top 10)
4. Alex White (#2 on BA Indians' top 10)
5. LaVon Washington (#7 of BA Indians' top 10)
6. Jason Knapp (#6 on BA Indians' top 10)
7. Nick Weglarz (#5 on BA Indians' top 10)
8. Nick Hagadone (#10 on BA Indians' top 10)
9.  Kyle Blair (BA Top 31)
10. Cord Phelps (BA Top 30)
11. Jordan Brown (In team photo)
12. Bryce Stowell (BA Top 31)
13. Vinnie Pestano (In team photo)
14. Joe Gardner (#9 on BA Indians' top 10)
15. Josh Judy (BA Top 31)
16. Hector Rondon (BA Top 31)
17. Rob Bryson (BA Top 31)
18. Robbie Aviles (In team photo)
19. Juan Diaz
20.  Zach Putnam (BA Top 30)
21. Tony Wolters (#8 on BA Indians' top 10)
22. Josh Rodriguez (BA Top 31 for Pirates)
23. Jordan Henry (BA Top 31)
24. Tyler Holt (BA Top 31)
25. TJ House (BA Top 31)
26. Kelvin De La Cruz (BA Top 31)
27. Austin Adams (In team photo)
28. Chun Chen (BA Top 31)
29. Paulo Espino
30. Jared Goedert. In team photo)
31. Cole Cook (In team photo)
32. Alexander Perez (In team photo)
33. Zach McAllister (BA Top 31)
34. Corey Kluber (BA Top 31)
35. Matt McBride (in team photo)
36. Alex Lavisky (BA Top 31)
37. Giovanny Soto (In team photo)
38. Ezequiel Carrera (in team photo)
39. Jess Todd (BA Top 31)
40. Scott Barnes (In team photo)
41. Felix Sterling (BA Top 31)
42. Adam Miller (In team photo)
43. Matt Packer (BA Top 31)
44. Clayton Cook (In team photo)
45. TJ McFarland (In team photo)
46. Chris Jones
47. Eric Berger (In team photo)
48. Michael Goodnight (In team photo)
49. Tony Dischler (In team photo)
50. Marty Popham (In team photo)
51. Roberto Perez (In team photo)
52. Tyler Sturdevant (In team photo)
53. Cory Burns (In team photo)
54. Abner Abreu (In team photo)
55. Tim Fedroff (In team photo)
56. Bryan Price (In team photo)
57.. Chen Lee (BA Top 31)
58. Bo Greenwell (In team photo)
59. Jordan Cooper (In team photo)
60. Nick Bartolone (In team photo)
61. Elvis Araujo (In team photo)
62. Jorge Martinez (In team photo)
63. Vidal Nuno (In team photo)
64. Giovanny Urshala (BA Top 31)
65. Kyle Bellows(In team photo)
66. Alex Kaminsky
67. Connor Graham (In team photo)
68. Joey Mahalic
69. John Drennen (In team photo)
70. Jesus Aguilar
71. Brett Brach (In team photo)
72. Francisco Jimenez
73. Juan Romero (In team photo)
74. Karexon Sanchez 
75. Oswell Munoz
76. Matt Langwell
77. Danny Salazar
78. Argenis Martinez
79. Preston Guilmet (In team photo)
80. Ramon Cespedes
80. Harold Guerrero
81. Kyle Petter
82. Enosil Tejada
83.Luigi Rodriguez (BA Top 31)
84. Hunter Jones (In team photo)
85. Chase Burnette (In team photo)
86. Jose Flores (In team photo for Seattle)
87.  Carlos Moncrief
89. Erik Gonzalez
90. Mike Rayl
91. Mark Brown (In team photo)
92. Jerad Head
93. Alex Monsalve (In team photo)
94. Charlie Valero
95. Ryan Morris
96. Nate Striz
97. Trey Haley (In team photo)
98. Beau Mills (In team photo)
99. Delvi Cid (In team photo)
100. Wes Hodges

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Random Thoughts – January edition

IT'S JANUARY 19th.........

...and the Jordan Brown DFA (we were fortunate he was not lost for the waiver price which was more a function of people having full or nearly full 40-man rosters) and the potential loss of Josh Rodriguez by not protecting him on the 40-man, still look as stupid as they did when they happened, at least for a rebuilding team. 

Some bloggers and forum fanatics are saying that it is vindication of the FO of how bad Jordan Brown sucks because he cleared waivers.  What those people fail to realize or the they realize but fail to tell you is that, if you look at the 40 man rosters of all 30 teams in baseball there are exactly ELEVEN 40-man rosters spots available in all of baseball.  ELEVEN spread among EIGHT teams, no team with a 40-man roster under 38 players.  And most likely most, if not all, of those remaining spots are going to major league free agents who have not yet signed with a team.  At last glance there appear to be about 60 free agents left who have significant major league experience and could likely sign a major league deal.  I am pretty sure almost every roster spot left is tagged for one of those free agents who just hasn't signed yet.  Validating that, only one(Baltimore who is at 39 players) of those 8 teams (St. Louis, Cubs, Tampa Bay, White Sox, Milwaukee, San Diego and San Francisco) is clearly not in contention for a playoff spot this year meaning the rest of those teams are likely to fill their spot(s) with veteran free agents. To try to equate Brown passing through waivers as him being worthless is absolutely ridiculous.  It is clearly that these rosters are essentially full and teams just don't want to dump their own prospects for a guy, Brown, who they don't know that much about.  So, kudos to the Indians' FO for being able to count to 40 (29 times).  Shame on them for putting this kid through this when he has and continues to deserve so much more.  Ditto for Rodriguez who appears destined to be an asset wasted in favor of a AAAA guy (Nix) and some questionable returnees (Valbuena and even Crowe and Duncan, as Rodriguez can also play the OF).

Rebuilding teams need to look at their internal assets and VALIDATE whether they can be major leaguers before going outside of their organization and, ESPECIALLY, before giving repetitions to AAAA players.

HEY, TRAVIS, ARE YOU READING THIS?

I noticed that Gil Meche retired, leaving $12 million on the table because he can't pitch anymore due to a sore shoulder.  Well, truth be told, Travis Hafner can't hit anymore due to a sore shoulder.  The only difference is that Hafner actually can still physically get to the plate and swing a bat.  Still, this contract is an albatross around the neck of the Indians' FO and Hafner has earned very little of the money he has made since this contract went into effect.  I don't think there is a fan in Cleveland that wouldn't like to see us work out a settlement with Hafner if we could save, say, 60% of the money left on his contract.    So, Travis, please step up to the plate one last time...and retire.  Take enough money to be comfortable, but retire.  Meche did it.  McGwire did it and I am sure there are many others. 
 ARE WE DONE YET?

We are now approaching the end of January and it would appear that the Indians are done with free agent signings and trades.  I am not quite sure of that, however.  I still think we will bottom feed as second options if our first options fail.  Let’s look at what’s out there based on our needs:

Third base: 

Available players: Jorge Cantu, Ronnie Belliard, Andy LaRoche, Eric Chavez, Alex Cora, Pedro Feliz, Christian Guzman, Nick Punto, Joe Inglett.

Analysis: I would love Cantu but that isn’t reasonable.  I think we will settle on Punto although my heart is on Inglett.  Every team needs a Joe Inglett.

Starting pitcher:

Available players: David Bush, Justin Duchscherer, Shawn Hill, Rodrigo Lopez, Nate Robertson, Ben Sheets, Todd Wellemeyer, John Maine.

Analysis: I predict the Indians will sign three guys, despite what has been said.  One will be signed to a major league deal (Bush? Maine?) and two to minor league/rehab deals (Hill?  Wellemeyer? Robertson?)

Relief Pitcher:

Available players: They are legion  

Analysis:  The Indians need to look at internal options ONLY this year.  They should ONLY be looking only for minor league help, help that can give them a lot of innings as the shuttle between Cleveland and Columbus should be busy this year.  Hopefully they go with younger guys (Micah Owings? James Houser?) and not the grizzled veterans (Tim Byrdak, Coffey).  I mean, we already signed Doug Mathis.  No Mas! NOTE: you may see them sign Bobby Howry or Brendan Donnelly to prepare to have them become coaches/managers in the minors next year.

Other Positions:

Analysis:  I don’t see the Indians signing anyone else except for the perennial Latin minor league middle infield guy and maybe a journeyman minor league catcher.  Aside from that, they actually have too many players for their current AAA and AA rosters.

CHRIS ARCHER?  REALLY?

I wrote about Archer in my teaser to this column earlier this month.  My thoughts haven’t changed.  I like the guy but I doubt he is really this good.

BRENDAN RYAN?  REALLY?

Some times teams do things that make the fans scratch their heads.  This is a head scratcher.  Ryan, who usually batted AFTER the pitcher in Tony LaRussa’s lineup, had gotten in LaRussa’s dog house.  Like Hotel California, you can check into this dog house whenever you want but you can never  leave…except by being traded or released.   He would have been nice to have here as he can field but Adam Everett makes more sense since we got him on a minor league deal.  Still, as someone who follows the Cardinals, I think they got robbed in the deal that traded him away.

LUCAS DUDA?

Who is this guy and why would I mention him here?  Lucas Duda is a middling prospect firstbaseman/outfielder/DH for the New York Mets.   He had a great year last year in the minors and was named the Mets minor league player of the year by Baseball America.  So why mention him?  Well, he started out last year not even in the Mets top 30 prospects.  He is a big, slow guy but put up good numbers first at AA and next at AAA.  The Mets, who were one game out of first place in June, trashed the second half of the season and were out of it by Sept. 1st.  So, what did they do?  They called up this middling prospect and gave him some ABs in September of a lost season, even though they had young or star players at positions he played.    

My question is, why don’t the Indians do that.  Why didn’t they do it with Jordan Brown in 2009, why didn’t they do it with Matt McBride, Josh Rodriguez and Jared Goedert in 2010?  This is a tune I have sung repeatedly over the years.  GIVE YOUR GUYS A CHANCE, ESPECIALLY IN A LOSING YEAR.   Now you can make the argument that the situations are different, but let’s face it, we were looking at really bad players, AAAA players in most cases, at 3B and, somewhat, in the outfield last year and did have some ABs at 1B and DH, truth be told. 

So, Lucas Duda is my current poster child for how it should be done.  His experience SHOULD have been the experience of Josh Rodriguez, Jordan Brown, Matt McBride and Jared Goedert last year.  It wasn’t and instead Rodriguez has probably been lost, Brown has been dissed and Goedert and McBride are still awaiting their first chance, performance and capabilities be damned.  All while AAAA players dot our roster.  For a rebuilding organization I think this is inexcusable.  But that’s just me.

I FEEL A DRAFT?

 The 2011 draft order is taking shape.  The Indians will draft somewhere in the space between 66th and 70th in the second round, 96th-100th in the 3rd round, 127th to 131st in the 4th round.  After that just add 30 slots to where they drafted in the previous round to get their total draft order, assuming teams don’t stop drafting early.  

The most interesting thing about this year’s draft is that Tampa Bay is likely to have 11 picks in the top 75 picks of the draft.  Using last year’s slot values this means that the Rays will have to have a draft budget of over $9 million JUST to cover their picks through the 3rd round of the draft.   That’s if all their guys sign for slot.  Why I am mentioning this is that teams that have this many picks have, historically, gone cheap, looking for guys whose talent doesn’t represent the draft slot but who will be willing to sign for a cheaper bonus.  Even though every time a Type A or Type B free agent signs with another team it drives the Indians’ draft slot down a notch or two, the Tampa Bay situation is absolutely the best possible scenario under these conditions for the Indians.  It becomes more likely that players below the talent of the 70th pick (around where the Indians will draft in the 2nd round) will be elevated above those slots because teams like the Rays will be trying to go cheap to stay within their overall draft budget, which could be blown out of the water by these extra picks.

So, while the Indians may have one of if not THE lowest slot in EVERY round in the history of the draft for a team with the 7th overall worst record, the Tampa Bay situation lessens that blow somewhat. 

And, as I have been saying for years and the Indians FINALLY took advantage of last year, there is value all the way down to the 50th round of the draft IF a team is willing to pay for the talent that is available.  Let’s hope they keep that approach this year and are not scared away by all the extra compensation picks.  

With baseball being the way it is, the ONLY hope for the future of the Cleveland Indians is the draft and good minor league development.  We need to make the most of the draft EACH year if we want a perennially strong team.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

We now have the first totally BS move of the winter

Designate Jordan Brown?  With toads like Joe Martinez, Jayson Nix and Shelley Duncan still on the roster?  This is like a scene out of the first "Major League" movie!

Now, the Indians may know something that I don't.  That is, that Jordan Brown will pass through waivers easily and have to accept his unneeded 12th trip to AAA.  The only question left then is why not give him an extended shot in the majors instead of going through this BS?

Face it, these people are either the shrewdest basball people in the world or stubborn, flailing idiots. 

Given that we have lost in the 90s of games the last two years and they have, essentially, traded for Joe Martinez, a standard toad of a LHP and designated Jordan Brown to make room for him AND continue to keep Nix and Duncan on this roster, I have to go with idiots.

So, the big moves this winter so far are: (a) lose Josh Rodriguez in the Rule 5 while keeping Nix and
(b) Designate Jordan Brown to bring back Austin Kearns and Joe Martinez.

One thing for Shapiro.  He WON'T be dictated to.  No matter how many MVPs and batting titles a guy has won, it doesn't mean squat to old Mark and his henchman Antonneti.  Damn it, if they want to play AAAA trash at every position and diss, and probably lose, real prospects doing it, NO ONE is going to dicate to them that they can't do that.

Idiots!  Now let the FO supportive bloggers begin their butt kissing!

Winter ball stats downunder and more

You can find a lot of the stats for Indians' players at the MLB.com link:

http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/org.jsp?id=cle

It even lists Trent Baker playing in the Australian Baseball League.  However, you may not know that other Indians prospects are playing in the Australia for Brisbane.  The Indians prospects on that team include:

Ryan Battaglia C
Mitch Nilsson C
Andrew Campbell 2B

Martin Cervenka, the Eastern European catcher they signed a couple of years ago is not on one of those teams which is not surprising as he is probably back in Europe attending high school.

The neat thing about the Australian league is that it is actually their professional league (see the information about the separate MLB academy program below).  A number of the guys on those teams were actually born in the '80s and a few in the '70s. 

If you are interested on how the above prospects are doing this winter, here's a link to the stats for the Brisbane Bandits:

http://web.theabl.com.au/stats/stats.jsp?sid=l595&t=t_ibp&cid=4065


One more point:

The Australian professional league that occurs in our winter (their summer) is not like the MLB Academy program (MLBAAP) on the Gold Coast that occurs during our summer (their winter). The later is mostly, if not completely, deep, deep prospects who may already be signed (or not) but have not played in the US yet (and may never even make it that far) as they are not ready for that level of competition.  Cervenka played in the MLBAAP academy program last year, as it occurred in his summer vacation from high school.

Here is a link to a press release on the MLBAAP that occured in our summer (May-July) in 2010:

http://www.baseball.com.au/default.asp?Page=66205

Note that Battaglia, Nilsson and Campbell are listed.  I also communicated with someone who knows MLBAAP well and he said:

"There are a number of Indians here in that program ( Ryan Battaglia C, Mitch Nillson C (nephew of David Nillson ex MLB catcher and All Star), Andrew Campbell SS, Martin Cervanka C  from Europe. I have attached the latest stats from the program in spreadsheet. Ryan battaglia had a slow start due to a niggling injury but is tearing it up in the last few weeks."
 
Here are the stats from last year's MLBAAP program for Cleveland Indians prospects:
 
Player  avg gp-gs ab 2b 3b hr rbi tb slg% bb hbp so gdp ob% sf sh sb-att po fld% 
CAMPBELL,Andrew  .333 38-36 105 23 35 40 .381 16 14 .431 9-15 39 75 24 .826 
NILSSON,Mitchell  .281 37-35 96 11 27 18 38 .396 15 20 .381 5-7 58 32 .978 
CERVENKA,Martin  .260 33-31 96 12 25 29 .302 .317 3-4 133 .946 
BATTAGLIA,Ryan  .243 40-40 107 14 26 19 40 .374 23 24 .385 5-6 157 21 .967 
 
Ah, just when you thought there was a slight respit in getting baseball stats!

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Congratulations to Bert Blyleven and Robbie Alomar

They are both deserving of the HOF which, IMHO, should be limited to what the person does ON the field.  

While neither will go in as an Indian, it is rewarding that each spent some of their prime years with Cleveland and that their production here contributed to their induction and that they were great contributors on the field when they were here..   It is interesting to note, however, that we are getting into the free agent era pretty heavily and it is not obvious whose hat Alomar or Blyleven will wear into the HOF.  Here are their years, in chronological order, that each played for teams in the majors:

Blyleven
6 1/2 Minnesota
1 1/2 Texas
3 Pittsburgh
3 1/2 Cleveland
3 1/2 Minnesota
3 California

Note that, without the additional 3 1/2 years towards the end of his career that he played with Minnesota this COULD be tossup as to whose hat he would wear going in.  He will most likely go in as a Twin, however.  But what would have happened had plyaed those 3 1/2 years with Texas, ZCleveland or even Pittsburgh, both a second time?  We will never know.  What we do know is that the Twins issued a statement congratulating him for making the HOF (wink, wink).

Alomar
3 San Diego
5 Toronto
3 Baltimore
3 Cleveland
1 1/2 NY Mets
1 Chicago White Sox
1/2 Arizona

Note how split his career was.  Except for his time in Toronto it was pretty evenly split.  Also, his best statistical years were in Cleveland.  If he hadn't left under such bad circumstances here and the Indians had held onto his rights through his next free agency, he might have ended up in the HOF as an Indian, who knows?  Considering the crap we got for him in that trade, I would have rather have kept him AND Sandy throughout their entire careers...but that's just me.  So who Alomar goes in as is way up in the air and the Hall won't have much say as you can make a case for any team he played for ending with Cleveland.
This does open the old discussion, however: What is more important, a trip to the playoffs or statues outside your stadium.  You know where I stand on that issue :-)  Stay tuned to see what happens if and when Jim Thome, Omar Vizquel, Manny Ramirez and maybe Sandy Alomar and Kenny Lofton are considered, either now or by the veterans committee.  I honestly believe that had we brought any of the first three back at the end of their careers and treated them well we would have been locks to get our hat on their head entering the Hall (if Manny gets in, due to his PED use).  Now, who knows.  And that doesn't even count Julio Franco who would have probably ended up with 3000 hits in the US majors if we had nursed him through the years he played overseas.

I will say this again.  Unless you grow up in St. Louis or live here a long time, you really don't understand the power of all those HOF statues outside of Busch Stadium that almost all attendees walk by every game.

In What Slots Do The Indians Draft in 2011

It's never too early to talk about the 2011 First-Year Player Draft.  I have come up with the current draft order (could still change significantly) with currently awarded compensation picks in each round included.   Using that data (see bottom of this posting) and knowing that the Indians finished 2010 with the 7th worst record in baseball, they will currently draft at the following slots:

First round: 8th overall selection
Second round: 62nd
Third round: 92nd
Fourth round: 123rd
Fifth round: 153rd
Sixth round: 183rd.

The above is the best case scenario.  If all 8 of the remaining compensation free agents (see below) sign with other teams, the Indians will have the following slots unless, of course, they sign aType A free agent (highly unlikely) which would eliminate their 2nd round pick.  Outside of that unlikely circumstance, in the worst case scenario the Indians would draft

First round: 8th overall selection
Second round: 70th
Third round: 100th
Fourth round: 131st
Fifth round: 161st
Sixth round: 191st

1/6/11: NOTE: Baseball America has just updated their list to include Type B free agent compensation for Orlando Hudson (who I forgot to add even though I took him off the FA list) and Kevin Gregg.  This brings the total slots by the end of the supplemental round  to 57, meaning that the Indians will now pick 8th, 72nd, 102nd, 133rd, 163rd, 193rd and so on.  There are still 7 compensation free agents unsigned meaning we could still end up at 8th, 79th, 109th, 140th, 170th, 200th and so on if they all sign with new teams.  Remember the Mets were at 7, 59, 89, 122, 152 and 182.

To put this in perspective, last year the Mets, who finished with the 7th worst record in 2009, had the following draft slots assigned to them in 2010:

First round: 7th overall
Second round: 59th
Third round: 89th
Fourth round: 122nd
Fifth round: 152nd
Sixt round: 182nd

So, as you can see, the Indians already have lower draft slots in EVERY round than the Mets did last year and it is only likely to get worse.......9-13 slots per round worse!

While the Indians found a way last year to still get talent by using the formula I have been suggesting for years (sign top talents who have dropped and pay them bonuses that will get them signed) it does get harder as, each round, you chances of getting that top talent goes down the lower you draft in that round.  If those last 8 compensation free agents sign, dropping 9-13 slots compared to where the Mets drafted last year is a huge blow.

Let's hope Brad Grant pulls some rabbits out of his hat like he did last year.  I am not saying it can't be done, because it can.  It has just become harder.

If you want to see my work that led to the above, see below.  I extracted data from mlb.com and BaseballAmerica.com to put this list together.

First Round
1. Pirates
2. Mariners
3. Diamondbacks
4. Orioles
5. Royals
6. Nationals
7. Diamondbacks (for failure to sign 2010 first-rounder Barret Loux)
8. Indians
9. Cubs
10. Padres (for failure to sign 2010 first-rounder Karsten Whitson)
11. Astros
12. Brewers
13. Mets
14. Marlins
15. Brewers (for failure to sign 2010 first-rounder Dylan Covey)
16. Dodgers
17. Angels
18. Athletics
19. Red Sox (from Tigers for Victor Martinez, Type A)
20. Rockies
21. Blue Jays
22. Cardinals
23. Nationals (from White Sox for Adam Dunn, Type A)
24. Rays (from Red Sox for Carl Crawford, Type A)
25. Padres
26. Red Sox (from Rangers for Type A Beltre)
27. Reds
28. Braves
29. Giants
30. Twins
31. Yankees
32. Rays
33. Texas (from Phillies for Cliff Lee, Type A)

Supplemental First Round
34. Nationals (Dunn)
35. Blue Jays (for Scott Downs, Type A, to Angels)
36. Red Sox (Martinez)
37. Rangers (Lee)
38. Rays (Crawford)
39. Phillies (for Jayson Werth, Type A, to Nationals)
40. Arizona (for Adam LaRoche, Type B, to Nationals)
41. Mets (for Pedro Feliciano, Type B, to Yankees)
42. Rockies (for Octavio Dotel, Type B, to Blue Jays)
43. Blue Jays (for John Buck, Type B, to Marlins)
44. White Sox (for J.J. Putz, Type B, to Diamondbacks)
45. Padres (for Jon Garland, Type B, to Dodgers)
46. Giants (for Juan Uribe, Type B, to Dodgers)
47. Twins (for Jesse Crain, Type B, to White Sox)
48. Yankees (for Javier Vazquez, Type B, to Marlins)
49. Rays (for Joaquin Benoit, Type B, to Tigers)
50. Blue Jays (for Miguel Olivo, Type B, to Mariners)
51. Padres (for Yorvit Torrealba, Type B, to Rangers)
52. Twins (for Orlando Hudson, Type B, to Padres)
53. Rays (for Randy Choate, Type B, to Florida)
54. Padres (for Kevin Correia, Type B, to Pirates)
55. Rays (for Brad Hawpe, Type B, to Padres)
Second-Round  
56. Pirates
57. Mariners
58 Diamondbacks
59. Orioles
60. Royals
61. Phillies (from Nationals for Werth)
62. Indians
68. Blue Jays (from Angels for Downs)
Third-Round  
92. Indians

Supplemental Third Round
116. Mariners (for failure to sign 2010 third-rounder Ryne Stanek)
Fourth-Round 
123. Indians

Fifth Round
153. Indians

Sixth Round
183. Indians

Slots for future rounds will increase by 30 slots per round (e.g. 7th round will be slot 213) until teams start passing.

There is a chance that each of the Indians’ slots after the first round could drop by up to 8 spots due to the remaining Type A and Type B compensation players (see list below).  Each of these players, if they sign with another team, would cause an additional spot to be added in the supplemental first round.

Remaining Type A Compensation Free Agents (former team in parentheses)
Starting Pitchers: Carl Pavano (Min).
Relief Pitchers: Rafael Soriano (TB), Grant Balfour (TB).
Remaining Type B Compensation Free Agents
Third Basemen: Felipe Lopez (Bos).
Relief Pitchers: Kevin Gregg (Tor), Trevor Hoffman (Mil), Aaron Heilman (Ari), Chad Qualls (TB).

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Joe Martinez?

1/5/11: NOTE: I just read a blog that indicated that possibly this is a 'pre-compensation' so that the Pirates can retain Josh Rodriguez who they took from the Indians in the Rule 5 draft.  If that is what this is then it is a stupid move but a typical one for the Indians.  If they don't like a guy or have a negative impression of a guy they will give him away essentially for nothing (see Ryan Church, Willy Taveras, Macier Izturis and Luke Scott a while back and Brandon Phillips more recently).  Not that other teams don't do that (see Brendan Ryan formerly of the Cardinals who was recently given away for essentially nothing).  Josh Rodriguez is worth more to the rebuilding Indians then a dime-a-dozen lefty like Martinez.  Yeah, if they were competing, the Indians thought Rodriguez was NOT a SS and so was 3rd on their minor league depth chart as a secondbaseman, I could even have seen them trading Rodriguez for Martinez, especially with Shapiro still around.  However, I believe that Rodriguez is underrated and, if you were going to do a pre-compensation situation, get back a prospect about the same level as Rodriguez, not an irrelevant major leaguer.

I don't know if that is what this move was (probably not as Rodriguez would STILL have to clear waivers).  However, if it was, it makes the move stink even more.  Again, it is more likely much less than that but who knows right now.  Time will tell.

The Indians just traded a PTBNL for the typical journeyman LHP Joe Martinez who, for some inexplicable reason, is now on our 40-man roster.  Before anyone goes ballistic, my guess is that they will DFA the guy and just took a flyer on him getting through waivers when they did.  Remember, you cannot have enough pitching...if that pitching is not clogging your 40-man roster.

As the 40-man roster now stands at 41, SOMEONE will have to be DFA'd, traded or released.  Me, I would be begging for Jayson Nix or Shelly Duncan, both of whom are my deadwood whipping boys of the week now that Germano was DFA'd to the minors.  If it is anyone but those two or someone else who can DFA'd without risking losing them (not 6-year professional veteran, never been DFA'd off a ML roster before) then this is a headscratcher.

My fear: Jess Todd is the PTBNL

You heard it here first if Martinez sticks: Teams who are destined to finish in last place who already have multiple LH reliever and starter options DO NOT trade for guys like Joe Martinez.  No way to spin this trade posiitively unless the PTBNL is Roman Pena (read:non-descript minor leaguer) and Martinez is DFA'd (read: we don't lose anyone off the 40-man roster).

Counting Martinez, here is the current 40-man roster.  Who do you think is going to be removed?

Pitchers
Fausto Carmona
Carlos Carrasco
Kelvin De La Cruz
Jeanmar Gomez
 Nick Hagadone
Frank Herrmann
David Huff
Josh Judy
Corey Kluber
Aaron Laffey
Jensen Lewis
Joe Martinez
Justin Masterson
Zach McAllister
Rafael Perez
Chris Perez
Hector Rondon
Tony Sipp
Joe Smith
Mitch Talbot
Jess Todd
Josh Tomlin
Catchers
Lou Marson
Carlos Santana                                            
Infielders                                          
Asdrubal Cabrera                                        
Jason Donald                                               
Jared Goedert                                              
Matt LaPorta                                     
Jayson Nix                                        
Luis Valbuena                                              
Outfielders                                      
 Michael Brantley                                           
Jordan Brown                                               
Ezequiel Carrera                                          
Shin-Soo Choo                                            
Trevor Crowe                                    
Shelley Duncan                                            
Austin Kearns                                               
 Grady Sizemore                                           
Nick Weglarz                                    
Designated Hitter                                      
Travis Hafner