I don't know how this happened but the Indians pitchers and the Orioles hitters played the last two games in London while the Indians hitters and the Orioles position players were transported back in time to 1908 where they played in the Polo Grounds and they twice faced Christy Mathewson.
I know this is not how it looked on your TV screens or other electronic devices but just like when the United States 'landed' men on the moon, the apparent locations were all faked.
Now that we have established the only way the 2019 Indians could lose consecutive games by identical scores of 13-0 to the worst team in baseball, I am now able to go to bed and get very restful sleep.
Good night and God bless!
Saturday, June 29, 2019
Friday, June 28, 2019
2019 Draft - HS Hitter Update
Through the games of 6/27 here are the combined numbers for Bartlett, Valdes, Naranjo, Cairo and Brown.
108 AB 12 R 16 H 7 RBI 4 2B 0 3B 0 HR 11 BB 35 K BA .148 SLG .185
Take away Bartlett's numbers and you are left with this for the rest of the guys:
82 AB 8 R 9 H 4 RBI 1 2B 10 BB 28 K BA .110 SLG .122
Suffice it to say that this is a dismal start for the 2019 draft class and now it is getting into the realm of being a little larger than a typical small sample size.
Sunday, June 23, 2019
2019 draft - HS hitter update
Warning: small sample size
Warning: I think these kids got thrown into games sooner than I remember from previous years (maybe a mirage caused by all these guys have their signings announced at the same time).
Nonetheless, when you look at the starts of Bartlett, Brown, Valdes, Cairo and Naranjo, you have
10-60 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 18 K
I am not really sure given the small sample size but right now these guys look totally overmatched. Take away Bartlett's 4-14 and 3 2B hits, the rest of the guys are 6-46, 1 2B, 2 BB 14 K.
It may have happened but I, personally, don't remember a year where the HS hitters we drafted started off so dismally.
By comparison:
2018 - HS hitters Holland, Naylor, Delgado: 108-384 16 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR 74 BB 102 K
2017 - HS hitters Holmes, Freeman, Rodriguez, Cooper 128-552, 27 2B 9 3B 7 HR 53 BB 128 K
2016 - HS hitters Benson, Jones, Capel, Cantu, Taylor 146-630 27 2B 10 3B 8 HR 79 BB 195 K
Looking at the stats, compared to this year's class, Quentin Holmes, the worst of the last 3 classes of HS hitters we have drafted, would probably be one of if not THE best HS hitter, statistically, if he was drafted this year.
Again, this year is a very small sample size so far but, in my recollection at least over the last 3 years, I have never seen a group struggle so much, even right out of the gate like this. Considering how much money we paid these guys, you would have expected better production.
Warning: I think these kids got thrown into games sooner than I remember from previous years (maybe a mirage caused by all these guys have their signings announced at the same time).
Nonetheless, when you look at the starts of Bartlett, Brown, Valdes, Cairo and Naranjo, you have
10-60 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 BB, 18 K
I am not really sure given the small sample size but right now these guys look totally overmatched. Take away Bartlett's 4-14 and 3 2B hits, the rest of the guys are 6-46, 1 2B, 2 BB 14 K.
It may have happened but I, personally, don't remember a year where the HS hitters we drafted started off so dismally.
By comparison:
2018 - HS hitters Holland, Naylor, Delgado: 108-384 16 2B, 4 3B, 3 HR 74 BB 102 K
2017 - HS hitters Holmes, Freeman, Rodriguez, Cooper 128-552, 27 2B 9 3B 7 HR 53 BB 128 K
2016 - HS hitters Benson, Jones, Capel, Cantu, Taylor 146-630 27 2B 10 3B 8 HR 79 BB 195 K
Looking at the stats, compared to this year's class, Quentin Holmes, the worst of the last 3 classes of HS hitters we have drafted, would probably be one of if not THE best HS hitter, statistically, if he was drafted this year.
Again, this year is a very small sample size so far but, in my recollection at least over the last 3 years, I have never seen a group struggle so much, even right out of the gate like this. Considering how much money we paid these guys, you would have expected better production.
2016 Draft
OK, Indians fans will be talking about this for weeks, hopefully months, and dreaming on "for years" so let me be one of the first to proclaim:
THIS COULD BE THE BEST DRAFT IN CLEVELAND INDIANS HISTORY!!!!!!!!!!
OK, there. I said it.
Once in a while the plan comes together perfectly. You take some high risk guys early, one of whom you have to go way overslot to sign. You sprinkle in some low risk college pitchers, go back to some higher risk hitters, sprinkle in some college seniors and a few flyers in later rounds who you can sign to reasonable bonuses based on them (a) wanting to turn pro and (b) them having to accept a lower bonus due to their circumstances.
...and then they all advance....very quickly.
Let's look at this draft:
1. Will Benson - Not going as fast as we would like but he has started an upward trajectory...finally. This works for this pick because...
2. Nolan Jones - The guy who took a large, overslot bonus to sign is moving quickly and looking very good.
2b. Logan Ice - Here's your first 'clunker' although I don't know how you can call a guy who is playing in AA in his 4th year a clunker. Yeah, it is likely that Corey Kluber is as good a hitter as Ice and, therefore, no way would any major league teams be able to carry his anemic hitting at the big league level, but it was, and continues to be, a good gamble.
3. Aaron Civale - The first of the college pitchers, he has trailed slightly behind Bieber but, except for his ST injury this year, he might have been in the majors before Zach Plesac. He is solid but what separates him from Bieber is Bieber's velocity spike once he turned pro. Civale hasn't had that and so will have to continue to be very fine to be successful. Whereas Bieber looks good his second time around the league, Civale will likely struggle a bit. Still, he's in the majors and helped us immensely to the win yesterday.
4. Shane Bieber - What can you say? The classic he's-a-solid-pitchability-guy-who-if-he-had-a-tougher-fastball-he-could-be-a-star guy who actually developed that fastball...and he is on the way to being a star or, at least, a solid, Dave Burba-like starter.
5. Conner Capel - Spiked fast in his development which allowed us to use him to get Oscar Mercado. Enough said.
6. Ulysses Cantu -
7. Michael Tinsley
8. Andrew Lantrip
9. Hosea Nelson
10. Samad Taylor - Did well early in his career and was wasted, uhhh, traded along with Thomas Pannone for Joe Smith, who didn't impact the outcome of the 2017 playoffs...at all.
11. Andrew Calica - Doing OK as a 4th outfield type, major leaguer until he got hurt this year.
12. Zach Plesac - Like Adam Plutko before him, a flyer who signed with the Indians. Plesac had TJ surgery but the Indians took the risk and now they are getting rewarded.
After Plesac we signed Mitch Longo, Gavin Collins, Ben Krauth, Trenton Brooks, Ben Krauth, Raymond Burgos, Dakody Clemmer, Skyler Arias, Jonathon Laureno, Tanner Tully and Ryder Ryan, the latter having been traded and now pitching at AA.
Note that all of these guys, 4 years later, are STILL in the Indians system and working their way up the ladder. Yeah, not all of them are going to be major leaguers but they are ALL still working their way up the ladder, each showing some level of promise along the way.
That's 23 guys who we drafted and signed in 2016 who are still either with us or who have been traded for veterans and are still playing and advancing with other organizations. In fact, except for Mike Leftkewicz and James Rudlegde, I don't see another guy they signed from this draft who they have cut four years after the draft. 23 out of 25 still player. That, in itself, is truly amazing.
But if you dig deeper you find the following guys who were drafted in 2016 and, as high schools decided to go the college instead of signing.: Pedro Alfonseca and Mike Amditis went to college and were subsequently drafted by the Indians. Will Crowe, Austin Shenton, Kramer Robertson, Blake Sabol, Chris Farish and Danny Sinatro went to college and were later drafted and are playing for other teams.
So, in summary, here is what we have from the Indians 2016 draft...already:
3 - major league starting pitchers
4 - players who are/will be in the major league teams top 20 prospect lists
16 - other guys still playing minor league ball for the Indians or who were used as trade bait and are playing for other organizations.
Plus, for the flyer picks in later rounds who almost NEVER sign as they are going to college and won't except the small bonus they can get if they are drafted after the 10th round:
2 - guys later drafted again, and signed this time, by the Indians.
6 - guys who went to college and were later drafted and are now playing for another organization.
31 of 41 picks, almost exactly 3 years later, are playing in pro ball with a bunch of those having already made it to AA or above.
Truly amazing.
THIS COULD BE THE BEST DRAFT IN CLEVELAND INDIANS HISTORY!!!!!!!!!!
OK, there. I said it.
Once in a while the plan comes together perfectly. You take some high risk guys early, one of whom you have to go way overslot to sign. You sprinkle in some low risk college pitchers, go back to some higher risk hitters, sprinkle in some college seniors and a few flyers in later rounds who you can sign to reasonable bonuses based on them (a) wanting to turn pro and (b) them having to accept a lower bonus due to their circumstances.
...and then they all advance....very quickly.
Let's look at this draft:
1. Will Benson - Not going as fast as we would like but he has started an upward trajectory...finally. This works for this pick because...
2. Nolan Jones - The guy who took a large, overslot bonus to sign is moving quickly and looking very good.
2b. Logan Ice - Here's your first 'clunker' although I don't know how you can call a guy who is playing in AA in his 4th year a clunker. Yeah, it is likely that Corey Kluber is as good a hitter as Ice and, therefore, no way would any major league teams be able to carry his anemic hitting at the big league level, but it was, and continues to be, a good gamble.
3. Aaron Civale - The first of the college pitchers, he has trailed slightly behind Bieber but, except for his ST injury this year, he might have been in the majors before Zach Plesac. He is solid but what separates him from Bieber is Bieber's velocity spike once he turned pro. Civale hasn't had that and so will have to continue to be very fine to be successful. Whereas Bieber looks good his second time around the league, Civale will likely struggle a bit. Still, he's in the majors and helped us immensely to the win yesterday.
4. Shane Bieber - What can you say? The classic he's-a-solid-pitchability-guy-who-if-he-had-a-tougher-fastball-he-could-be-a-star guy who actually developed that fastball...and he is on the way to being a star or, at least, a solid, Dave Burba-like starter.
5. Conner Capel - Spiked fast in his development which allowed us to use him to get Oscar Mercado. Enough said.
6. Ulysses Cantu -
7. Michael Tinsley
8. Andrew Lantrip
9. Hosea Nelson
10. Samad Taylor - Did well early in his career and was wasted, uhhh, traded along with Thomas Pannone for Joe Smith, who didn't impact the outcome of the 2017 playoffs...at all.
11. Andrew Calica - Doing OK as a 4th outfield type, major leaguer until he got hurt this year.
12. Zach Plesac - Like Adam Plutko before him, a flyer who signed with the Indians. Plesac had TJ surgery but the Indians took the risk and now they are getting rewarded.
After Plesac we signed Mitch Longo, Gavin Collins, Ben Krauth, Trenton Brooks, Ben Krauth, Raymond Burgos, Dakody Clemmer, Skyler Arias, Jonathon Laureno, Tanner Tully and Ryder Ryan, the latter having been traded and now pitching at AA.
Note that all of these guys, 4 years later, are STILL in the Indians system and working their way up the ladder. Yeah, not all of them are going to be major leaguers but they are ALL still working their way up the ladder, each showing some level of promise along the way.
That's 23 guys who we drafted and signed in 2016 who are still either with us or who have been traded for veterans and are still playing and advancing with other organizations. In fact, except for Mike Leftkewicz and James Rudlegde, I don't see another guy they signed from this draft who they have cut four years after the draft. 23 out of 25 still player. That, in itself, is truly amazing.
But if you dig deeper you find the following guys who were drafted in 2016 and, as high schools decided to go the college instead of signing.: Pedro Alfonseca and Mike Amditis went to college and were subsequently drafted by the Indians. Will Crowe, Austin Shenton, Kramer Robertson, Blake Sabol, Chris Farish and Danny Sinatro went to college and were later drafted and are playing for other teams.
So, in summary, here is what we have from the Indians 2016 draft...already:
3 - major league starting pitchers
4 - players who are/will be in the major league teams top 20 prospect lists
16 - other guys still playing minor league ball for the Indians or who were used as trade bait and are playing for other organizations.
Plus, for the flyer picks in later rounds who almost NEVER sign as they are going to college and won't except the small bonus they can get if they are drafted after the 10th round:
2 - guys later drafted again, and signed this time, by the Indians.
6 - guys who went to college and were later drafted and are now playing for another organization.
31 of 41 picks, almost exactly 3 years later, are playing in pro ball with a bunch of those having already made it to AA or above.
Truly amazing.
Thursday, June 20, 2019
Drafts
I know it is more complicated than this but, in a nutshell:
In baseball, even the best have to wait years before they are drafted and/or signed as amateurs before they play in the majors...if even.
In football, you go right to the highest level or, generally, get cut. Yeah there is Canadian football or an indoor league or even a few outdoor leagues but, basically, no organized minor league system.
In hockey, if I have this right, you get drafted and then some people make it right to the highest level but most have to pay their dues before getting called up. Still, it is probably shorter than in baseball.
In basketball, which is why I am thinking about this tonight, maybe 20-25 guys per year get added to the NBA. although they draft 60. The rest get stored in the developmental league or play abroad.
So, to me, it looks like football is the top place to be if you want to go right from school to the highest level. Maybe this is because the attrition is so much greater in football so there is constant turnover that doesn't exist in other sports. I mean, in the NBA, maybe 1/12 of a team's roster, on average, consists of a guy drafted that previous year. Not a lot of opportunities.
When the NFL is talking about 6th round draft picks maybe making a team and the NBA is saying the 35th highest draftee is likely going to play in a developmental league, that is saying something. And baseball? Fa-get-aboud-it.
In baseball, even the best have to wait years before they are drafted and/or signed as amateurs before they play in the majors...if even.
In football, you go right to the highest level or, generally, get cut. Yeah there is Canadian football or an indoor league or even a few outdoor leagues but, basically, no organized minor league system.
In hockey, if I have this right, you get drafted and then some people make it right to the highest level but most have to pay their dues before getting called up. Still, it is probably shorter than in baseball.
In basketball, which is why I am thinking about this tonight, maybe 20-25 guys per year get added to the NBA. although they draft 60. The rest get stored in the developmental league or play abroad.
So, to me, it looks like football is the top place to be if you want to go right from school to the highest level. Maybe this is because the attrition is so much greater in football so there is constant turnover that doesn't exist in other sports. I mean, in the NBA, maybe 1/12 of a team's roster, on average, consists of a guy drafted that previous year. Not a lot of opportunities.
When the NFL is talking about 6th round draft picks maybe making a team and the NBA is saying the 35th highest draftee is likely going to play in a developmental league, that is saying something. And baseball? Fa-get-aboud-it.
Wednesday, June 19, 2019
George Valera
Just seeing him for the first time this year but, man, if you look up the definition of 'easy power' it must have a picture of Valera. He takes some of the easiest swings I have seen and the ball just keeps traveling.
Tonight the announcer thought he had popped up to the SS and the ball went almost to the warning track...in left field (he was hitting lefthanded).
Impressive
Tonight the announcer thought he had popped up to the SS and the ball went almost to the warning track...in left field (he was hitting lefthanded).
Impressive
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
Thoughts for a Tuesday night
I don't remember ever seeing the AZL team/(s) for the Indians with so little star power. Literally, except for Espino and Bracho these guys are no-names to me. Doesn't mean we won't get major league role players or even a regular or two out of the other guys on these rosters but, man, I am glad that I don't have season tickets for these two teams (can you even GET season tickets for complex teams?).
On the good news front, it looks like we signed Ike Freeman as he appeared in an AZL game tonight.
Early returns on our HS draftees from this year are bad. It is really early but they are currently 1-16 and the college guys are even worse, going 0-9. Again, its early by 1-22 out of our draft picks is not really looking good. Things will turn around but you would expect these guys to start hitting soon, right?
Seeing Nick Sandlin in AAA, the guy still has some work to do. I would not have promoted him from AA but, what the heck. Let him learn his trade at AAA. It is the first time he has struggled as a pro and maybe from those struggles he can become an even more dominant pitcher. Hopefully by this time next year we are talking about a dominant bullpen that includes Hand, Cimber, Wittgren, Sandlin, Karinchak and Nelson with others on the cusp. That would be exciting.
How much longer do we wait to bring up Bradley? Hey, he is hitting in stat-inflating Columbus but... saw him again tonight and, while there is a lot of difference between AAA and ML pitching, he is starting to look more and more like I imagine he did in the AZL that first year. And, yes, he is a MUCH better hitter against lefties, meaning he can learn and grow as a hitter. While he will likely never again match in the majors the eye-popping numbers he had in Arizona, I think he is gaining a level of confidence that will allow him to continue raising his walks and lowering his Ks while keeping his 30+ HR power. The BA may suffer a little in the beginning but I could see him being a .280/.360/.540 guys for about 5 years in his prime. If the Indians want to take advantage of that, they need to start accelerating him towards that prime while they still have a quality team on the field.
Talking about power hitters, I don't know what to make of Will Benson. He is repeating a league and that league is the Midwest League, which has been know on MANY occasions to inflate hitters' stats. As much as I don't want to spoil a good thing, I think it is time to challenge the guy with a promotion to high A ball in Lynchburg. I am still not sold on this guy but we need to find out what we have in him.
With Cody Allen's release and Andrew Miller's troubles, I really think that Francona rode these guys too hard and now it is coming back to bite them. Fortunately both signed lucrative contracts the off-season as these might be the last lucrative contracts either ever signs again. Which brings me to Trevor Bauer. Francona is a players manager and a winning manager. I think that is a bad combination. Very few players want to be taken out of a game or not used. Bauer would continue to pitch to the end of the game every time if Francona let him. I don't care how fit the guy is or how he is throwing harder his last inning, it can't be good for his arm to throw that much. It WILL impact him later in his career if not this season. BTW, if Cody Allen wants to come back I sign him to a minor league deal. Maybe he can reinvent himself in Goodyear. I think he winds up with his old pitching coach instead, however.
To end this night, I am still in the same place I was at the beginning of the season. Tee Indians need to stay the course and not trade ANYONE, and that means don't be buyers OR sellers at the deadline. To turn this from a full rebuild to just a reload, we need to have our core here for another year or so until the new guys get acclimated. I thnk we can still make the playoffs this year and
On the good news front, it looks like we signed Ike Freeman as he appeared in an AZL game tonight.
Early returns on our HS draftees from this year are bad. It is really early but they are currently 1-16 and the college guys are even worse, going 0-9. Again, its early by 1-22 out of our draft picks is not really looking good. Things will turn around but you would expect these guys to start hitting soon, right?
Seeing Nick Sandlin in AAA, the guy still has some work to do. I would not have promoted him from AA but, what the heck. Let him learn his trade at AAA. It is the first time he has struggled as a pro and maybe from those struggles he can become an even more dominant pitcher. Hopefully by this time next year we are talking about a dominant bullpen that includes Hand, Cimber, Wittgren, Sandlin, Karinchak and Nelson with others on the cusp. That would be exciting.
How much longer do we wait to bring up Bradley? Hey, he is hitting in stat-inflating Columbus but... saw him again tonight and, while there is a lot of difference between AAA and ML pitching, he is starting to look more and more like I imagine he did in the AZL that first year. And, yes, he is a MUCH better hitter against lefties, meaning he can learn and grow as a hitter. While he will likely never again match in the majors the eye-popping numbers he had in Arizona, I think he is gaining a level of confidence that will allow him to continue raising his walks and lowering his Ks while keeping his 30+ HR power. The BA may suffer a little in the beginning but I could see him being a .280/.360/.540 guys for about 5 years in his prime. If the Indians want to take advantage of that, they need to start accelerating him towards that prime while they still have a quality team on the field.
Talking about power hitters, I don't know what to make of Will Benson. He is repeating a league and that league is the Midwest League, which has been know on MANY occasions to inflate hitters' stats. As much as I don't want to spoil a good thing, I think it is time to challenge the guy with a promotion to high A ball in Lynchburg. I am still not sold on this guy but we need to find out what we have in him.
With Cody Allen's release and Andrew Miller's troubles, I really think that Francona rode these guys too hard and now it is coming back to bite them. Fortunately both signed lucrative contracts the off-season as these might be the last lucrative contracts either ever signs again. Which brings me to Trevor Bauer. Francona is a players manager and a winning manager. I think that is a bad combination. Very few players want to be taken out of a game or not used. Bauer would continue to pitch to the end of the game every time if Francona let him. I don't care how fit the guy is or how he is throwing harder his last inning, it can't be good for his arm to throw that much. It WILL impact him later in his career if not this season. BTW, if Cody Allen wants to come back I sign him to a minor league deal. Maybe he can reinvent himself in Goodyear. I think he winds up with his old pitching coach instead, however.
To end this night, I am still in the same place I was at the beginning of the season. Tee Indians need to stay the course and not trade ANYONE, and that means don't be buyers OR sellers at the deadline. To turn this from a full rebuild to just a reload, we need to have our core here for another year or so until the new guys get acclimated. I thnk we can still make the playoffs this year and
Monday, June 17, 2019
Stupid Contenders Trade Deadline Trade Propositions
OK, I have to hysterically laugh when I read some trade proposals that fans make. Some of these are so stupid that when you read between the lines you come up with "We want you to give us your best players and will give you some crap players we don't want and you will be happy about us because, well, we are (fill in the team name) and you are some crappy team that wants to just give players away to save money."
So, in the spirit of all those stupid people trying to fleece another team here is my trade proposal:
We trade to the Yankees: Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez
We get back: Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar and Chance Adams
This makes perfect sense to me (if you can trade injured players, which you can't). We could even take on a bad salary if the Yankees want us to.
We are giving up 4 (cough ALL-STAR VETERANS cough, Cy young award winning or shoulda been Cy Young winning) players and getting back a bunch of young guys. Playoff veterans for inexperienced youngsters and Andujar is done for the season and wouldn't help them this year!
I mean young guys are nice and all but prospects are just that. Look at Mejia for example. The team taking the young players is taking all the risk, right.
Yeah, the Yankees guys in the trade have shown something but they are questionably effective, especially in the playoffs where experience matters, right?
Plus, it's the Yankees. They can take on extra salary, right?
So there you have it. A trade that finally makes sense. The deep pocket Yankees take on salary and get seasoned playoff veterans and we take on young cheap players because, well, we are the Cleveland Indians and you should give us your young prospects because, well, we need and deserve your young players and we will let you fleece us out of our playoff seasoned veterans just because you have us over a barrel because we don't want to pay veteran salaries.
And even if this trade turns out bad for the Yankees they can always buy some free agents to make up for it.
Yep, let's do this deal!
So, in the spirit of all those stupid people trying to fleece another team here is my trade proposal:
We trade to the Yankees: Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez
We get back: Clint Frazier, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar and Chance Adams
This makes perfect sense to me (if you can trade injured players, which you can't). We could even take on a bad salary if the Yankees want us to.
We are giving up 4 (cough ALL-STAR VETERANS cough, Cy young award winning or shoulda been Cy Young winning) players and getting back a bunch of young guys. Playoff veterans for inexperienced youngsters and Andujar is done for the season and wouldn't help them this year!
I mean young guys are nice and all but prospects are just that. Look at Mejia for example. The team taking the young players is taking all the risk, right.
Yeah, the Yankees guys in the trade have shown something but they are questionably effective, especially in the playoffs where experience matters, right?
Plus, it's the Yankees. They can take on extra salary, right?
So there you have it. A trade that finally makes sense. The deep pocket Yankees take on salary and get seasoned playoff veterans and we take on young cheap players because, well, we are the Cleveland Indians and you should give us your young prospects because, well, we need and deserve your young players and we will let you fleece us out of our playoff seasoned veterans just because you have us over a barrel because we don't want to pay veteran salaries.
And even if this trade turns out bad for the Yankees they can always buy some free agents to make up for it.
Yep, let's do this deal!
Bonus Update
Apparently Will Bartlett has signed for $275,000, over slot by about $123,000. Not surprising as he is an IMG guy and my guess is getting Boras-like advice.
Plus, remember that $123,000 comes with a tax which may actually make the cost to the Indians $400,000 to sign this guy for this bonus. I don't think he is worth nearly that level of bonus but what do I know.
So, currently, if my calculations are correct (note that MLB has the Indians' bonus pool at $6,150,500 whereas the number I have seen floating around the web is 6,148,100) the Indians have somewhere between $16,500 and $23,500 left to spend ABOVE slot for the rest of their picks.
Given that Allan Hernandez got a 'slightly overslot' bonus, probably all the rest of that bonus pool excess was chewed up with him.
So my prediction is that the Indians are done signing players. They only have 8 left to sign with 6 of those being HS players who won't sign for $125,000 or they would have been drafted higher. This also means that it is unlikely the Indians will sign Ike Freeman and very, very unlikely they will sign Jake Eissler.
In terms of numbers of players, a great draft for the Indians.
In terms of talent of those players, I think the Indians did a good job, once again, in bringing in college arms who have a chance to be good pro relievers. I am not so on board with the HS guys they drafted as you can probably tell from my previous comments. I also don't like the Brennan pick or what they paid for some of these HS guys. Except for Espino, they just don't seem like they profile to be star or even solid starter major leaguers and even Espino could profile better as a closer than as a starter. Still very valuable, especially drafting as low as the Indians did, but not as valuable as a solid position player or solid starting pitcher would be at that draft slot, in my opinion.
But, with us likely being done signing draft picks, it's time to put all that behind us and get to developing what we got this year.
Sunday, June 16, 2019
Father's Day Update on Bonuses
For all those fathers out there, Happy Fathers' Day.
As far as draft bonuses we now have found out that Xzavion Curry signed for $125,000 which was over $72,000 under slot. My guess from reading the newspaper articles on him is that he was hurt at the end of the year. It would not surprise me if he missed all of 2019 and so took a bonus he could have gotten if he signed in the 11th or lower round.
We also know that Will Brennan took a slot bonus of $163,900 so that was a wash with our pool.
Right now, with Will Bartlett being the only bonus in the top 10 picks that we don't know about, we are $164,700 over our draft budget meaning we will have to pay a penalty on that. However, we still have over $145,000 of excess bonus money left before we would lose a draft pick next year.
A little (per reports) of that excess is going to Hernandez (11th round pick). If it is $25,000 excess we may still have over $100,000 to add on to the $125,000 slot values of guys picked after the 10th round unless Bartlett signed for over slot.
NOTE: If Bartlett fails to sign with us we are still OK. We just lose the ability to use $150,000 of our bonus pool which would be OK.
As far as draft bonuses we now have found out that Xzavion Curry signed for $125,000 which was over $72,000 under slot. My guess from reading the newspaper articles on him is that he was hurt at the end of the year. It would not surprise me if he missed all of 2019 and so took a bonus he could have gotten if he signed in the 11th or lower round.
We also know that Will Brennan took a slot bonus of $163,900 so that was a wash with our pool.
Right now, with Will Bartlett being the only bonus in the top 10 picks that we don't know about, we are $164,700 over our draft budget meaning we will have to pay a penalty on that. However, we still have over $145,000 of excess bonus money left before we would lose a draft pick next year.
A little (per reports) of that excess is going to Hernandez (11th round pick). If it is $25,000 excess we may still have over $100,000 to add on to the $125,000 slot values of guys picked after the 10th round unless Bartlett signed for over slot.
NOTE: If Bartlett fails to sign with us we are still OK. We just lose the ability to use $150,000 of our bonus pool which would be OK.
Saturday, June 15, 2019
Update on bonuses
As predicted, Espino had to sign for significantly under bonus even though I didn't think they would get that done. They did and that $300,000 savings will almost totally be used up.
By my calculation they have about $500,000 to sign Brown, Curry, Bartlett and Brennan and stay under slot.
Adding in the 5% excess they are allowed to have and not lose a draft pick, they have $800,000 to sign those 4 guys as long as bonuses for guys after round 10 don't exceed $125,000 each.
The slots for the four guys left in the top 10 add up to about $763,000.
So it is likely we will stay inside the budget + 5% if those guys sign for slot or less. Plus we will have about $35,000 or so left over to go over slot for guys after the 10th round. It is unlikely that we will avoid the penalty as that would have us sign each of these guys for $125,000 which isn't likely to happen as they all have leverage.
With Brown signing for $230,000 we are now about $240,000 over our budget with three guys left to sign. It will be interesting to see, after we know their bonuses, how much money is left for post 10th round guys.
Also hearing that Hernandez, at 11, got slightly over slot. To me that means he got probably $25,000 over slot which eats up about half of the excess we have left, assuming Curry, Bartlett and Brennan sign for slot.
These numbers could signal that these signings end our draft haul for this season. ends unless guys are willing to sign for exactly slot with maybe one more guy being able to sign for a little over slot..
Right now we have not signed #14, 26, 27, 30, 36, 38, 39, 40.
The guys in bold are HS picks and will not sign. Our 14th round pick, Ike Freeman may still sign. Our 38th round pick, Jake Eissler is unlikely to sign based on the fact he is a college junior and on his low draft slot which generally indicates the guy is going back to his senior year in college.
By my calculation they have about $500,000 to sign Brown, Curry, Bartlett and Brennan and stay under slot.
Adding in the 5% excess they are allowed to have and not lose a draft pick, they have $800,000 to sign those 4 guys as long as bonuses for guys after round 10 don't exceed $125,000 each.
The slots for the four guys left in the top 10 add up to about $763,000.
So it is likely we will stay inside the budget + 5% if those guys sign for slot or less. Plus we will have about $35,000 or so left over to go over slot for guys after the 10th round. It is unlikely that we will avoid the penalty as that would have us sign each of these guys for $125,000 which isn't likely to happen as they all have leverage.
With Brown signing for $230,000 we are now about $240,000 over our budget with three guys left to sign. It will be interesting to see, after we know their bonuses, how much money is left for post 10th round guys.
Also hearing that Hernandez, at 11, got slightly over slot. To me that means he got probably $25,000 over slot which eats up about half of the excess we have left, assuming Curry, Bartlett and Brennan sign for slot.
These numbers could signal that these signings end our draft haul for this season. ends unless guys are willing to sign for exactly slot with maybe one more guy being able to sign for a little over slot..
Right now we have not signed #14, 26, 27, 30, 36, 38, 39, 40.
The guys in bold are HS picks and will not sign. Our 14th round pick, Ike Freeman may still sign. Our 38th round pick, Jake Eissler is unlikely to sign based on the fact he is a college junior and on his low draft slot which generally indicates the guy is going back to his senior year in college.
Friday, June 14, 2019
Draft signings and draft budget so far - We may have a problem, Houston!
OK, very little of any of this is final and absolute. But here is what we have so far:
It looks like we have signed five players (info from various sources) in our top 10 picks.
2. Valdes - $79,000 under slot
3. Naranjo: $193,000 over slot (drafted 19 places higher than expected)
4. Cairo: $520,000 over slot (33 slots lower than expected)
10. Hart: $137,500 under slot (maybe 100 places higher than expected - college senior signing)
So, if my calculations are correct and the numbers (especially Cairo's $955,000 bonus) are correct we are currently over $500,000 over budget at this point.
DRAFT RULES REMINDER: If a guy fails to sign we lose his draft slot value from our bonus pool so players drafted highly have some leverage not to accept low ball offers from teams. If they just go to or go back to school, the team drafting them is usually screwed big time because teams are normally counting on certain players to sign under bonus to make up for guys who require above slot bonuses to sign.
Right now, the really drag on our draft budget is Cairo and Naranjo. Cairo going over slot was expected but his bonus was 2X what his slot value was and about $200,000 more than he should have gotten based on where he was ranked right before the draft.
As we may be 5% or less over budget and not lose our #1 pick next year we have the following threshholds:
We have to go $500,000 under budget for our picks in rounds 1,5,6,7,8 and 9 and not sign any player for more than $125,000 after round 10 to not to be penalized any additional money.
or
We have to go $200,000 under budget on the combined bonuses of those picks AND not sign a player after round 10 for more than $125,000.
So, let's analyze our remaining picks to see if we can save enough money to get back to budget.
1. Daniel Espino - His slot is $2.83 million. He was drafted 24th overall and was rated 23rd overall. I doubt than we can any money on him. Let's say, for argument, that we can save $50,000 on him.
5. Hunter Gaddis - His slot value is $324,100. He was drafted 29 places higher than expected. I think we could save $40,000 on him, or half the difference between where he was drafted compared to where he was expected to be drafted.
6. Jordan Brown - His slot value is $251,100. He was drafted 190th and Baseball America had him ranked 334. This would mean that his bonus should have been close to $140,000 based on his ranking. We could reasonably expect him to sign for about $175,000 or $75,000 under slot.
7. Xzavion Curry - His slot was $197,300. He missed two starts in May with shoulder inflammation. I don't have his ranking but, as you moved lower in the top 10 there isn't that much room to play with in terms of lowering bonuses. I would say we save no money on this pick.
8. Will Brennan - Slot value is $163,900. I can see us saving $20,000 at the most with this pick.
9. Will Bartlett - Slot was $153,300. He is an IMG Academy guy and I don't see guys from that program going under slot, even though he was not highly ranked. Either we sign him at slot or he walks, and we lose that bonus money from our bonus pool. Either way, there are no savings there.
SUMMARY - So, looking at these picks, if we don't save a bunch on Espino, it looks like we might be able to eek out $135,000 below slot for all these other guys together. Thus we need Espino to sign for at least $100,000 or more below slot or we will likely lose a draft pick next year...and that assumes all the other guys above that I predicted could be had for under slot value really will sign for under slot.
So, we are still very much at risk of having a bad draft AND losing our #1 pick for next year by spending over our bonus pool. As I said above, it all comes down to how much we get Espino to sign under budget. Frankly, if his bonus is at or above slot, we are screwed as there is almost no way to save any more money. So watch what Espino signs for or if he doesn't sign early. Any delay in signing him could mean trouble for the Indians not only in this draft but in next year's draft, as well.
.
It looks like we have signed five players (info from various sources) in our top 10 picks.
2. Valdes - $79,000 under slot
3. Naranjo: $193,000 over slot (drafted 19 places higher than expected)
4. Cairo: $520,000 over slot (33 slots lower than expected)
10. Hart: $137,500 under slot (maybe 100 places higher than expected - college senior signing)
So, if my calculations are correct and the numbers (especially Cairo's $955,000 bonus) are correct we are currently over $500,000 over budget at this point.
DRAFT RULES REMINDER: If a guy fails to sign we lose his draft slot value from our bonus pool so players drafted highly have some leverage not to accept low ball offers from teams. If they just go to or go back to school, the team drafting them is usually screwed big time because teams are normally counting on certain players to sign under bonus to make up for guys who require above slot bonuses to sign.
Right now, the really drag on our draft budget is Cairo and Naranjo. Cairo going over slot was expected but his bonus was 2X what his slot value was and about $200,000 more than he should have gotten based on where he was ranked right before the draft.
As we may be 5% or less over budget and not lose our #1 pick next year we have the following threshholds:
We have to go $500,000 under budget for our picks in rounds 1,5,6,7,8 and 9 and not sign any player for more than $125,000 after round 10 to not to be penalized any additional money.
or
We have to go $200,000 under budget on the combined bonuses of those picks AND not sign a player after round 10 for more than $125,000.
So, let's analyze our remaining picks to see if we can save enough money to get back to budget.
1. Daniel Espino - His slot is $2.83 million. He was drafted 24th overall and was rated 23rd overall. I doubt than we can any money on him. Let's say, for argument, that we can save $50,000 on him.
5. Hunter Gaddis - His slot value is $324,100. He was drafted 29 places higher than expected. I think we could save $40,000 on him, or half the difference between where he was drafted compared to where he was expected to be drafted.
6. Jordan Brown - His slot value is $251,100. He was drafted 190th and Baseball America had him ranked 334. This would mean that his bonus should have been close to $140,000 based on his ranking. We could reasonably expect him to sign for about $175,000 or $75,000 under slot.
7. Xzavion Curry - His slot was $197,300. He missed two starts in May with shoulder inflammation. I don't have his ranking but, as you moved lower in the top 10 there isn't that much room to play with in terms of lowering bonuses. I would say we save no money on this pick.
8. Will Brennan - Slot value is $163,900. I can see us saving $20,000 at the most with this pick.
9. Will Bartlett - Slot was $153,300. He is an IMG Academy guy and I don't see guys from that program going under slot, even though he was not highly ranked. Either we sign him at slot or he walks, and we lose that bonus money from our bonus pool. Either way, there are no savings there.
SUMMARY - So, looking at these picks, if we don't save a bunch on Espino, it looks like we might be able to eek out $135,000 below slot for all these other guys together. Thus we need Espino to sign for at least $100,000 or more below slot or we will likely lose a draft pick next year...and that assumes all the other guys above that I predicted could be had for under slot value really will sign for under slot.
So, we are still very much at risk of having a bad draft AND losing our #1 pick for next year by spending over our bonus pool. As I said above, it all comes down to how much we get Espino to sign under budget. Frankly, if his bonus is at or above slot, we are screwed as there is almost no way to save any more money. So watch what Espino signs for or if he doesn't sign early. Any delay in signing him could mean trouble for the Indians not only in this draft but in next year's draft, as well.
.
Thursday, June 6, 2019
Overall draft analysis
We are in the era of detailed statistical analysis in baseball. Long from the days of Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta we are now looking at exit velocities, spin rates, etc. to analyze who will and will not be successful and what a team would have to fix on a young player to make them successful.
So where do the Indians stand on all of this? I am really not sure. But let's, once again, look at what they are good and bad at:
Good: Identifying, picking and developing 2nd and 3rd tier college pitchers who they can mold into major league pitchers.
Bad: Developing any viable catching prospect
Bad: Developing high school pitchers to get them to the majors
Bad: Working with HS athletes to develop them into viable ML hitters, even if those athletes (eg, Will Benson, Quentin Holmes, etc.) have good pedigrees coming out of high school. Note that Nolan Jones, one of those types of players, is hitting pretty well but his power has not developed and, in fact, has regressed this year.
Given the above, you would guess that they would:
(a) Bring in coaches/staff who could develop these kids into ML hitters and pitcher
or
(b) Stop drafting high school pitchers and hitters and focus on college players
So what did we do: In the first draft led by our new scouting director, Scott Barnsby, in the first 10 rounds we drafted a lot of HS players, some of which were highly questionable picks, one questionable college hitter and 3 college guys who project as relief pitchers.
So in those first 10 rounds we drafted towards our developmental weakness. In the last 30 rounds we drafted 21 college pitchers, many of who had stats and attributes that made them perfect to play to our developmental strengths.
But it's the first 10 rounds where you normally get your stars from.
A number of quotes from Mr. Barnsby were really interesting, two in particular:
“We were really aggressive on Day 1, so I’m not sure how many opportunities we’re going to have to sign some of those younger guys on Day 3.”
In other words, he is saying that they will have to pay a lot of money for the guys in the first 10 rounds so there won't be a lot of money left for 'flyers' picked in later rounds. That's good because there was only one flyer picked in the last 30 rounds.
It is kind of hard to believe that we were aggressive in the first 10 rounds as we drafted exactly ONE guy who was rated higher than where we drafted him and a number of the HS picks in those first 10 rounds were really questionable talents compared to where they were drafted.
“There was a group of college bats that we had up there maybe more so than normal,” he said. “It’s really difficult to scout a high school hitter and a lot of times in high school they need to get stronger, there’s a lot of things that they need to work out mentally. They go to college, they perform for three years, then all of a sudden you feel more comfortable about taking those guys."
So, let me get this straight. You had a bunch of college hitters high on your draft board and yet you didn't pick any of them? One way to interpret that is that you got aced out of the guys you really wanted to draft and thought you could sign and had to panic and settle for guys you really didn't want.
So, in summary, I will be harsh. I think Scott Barnsby blew his first draft. Blew it out his butt hole, frankly. My prediction is that he will overpay his top 4 round guys, guys he probably wasn't even targeting, just to save face on the draft. We will waste this money as these guys are not good enough for the bonuses they will get. Except for Espino, it will not even be close. Or maybe he will come to his senses and let some of these guys walk, like Valdes and Naranjo, who I think we can get draft choices for next year if we don't sign them. If he lets some of these guys walk, we will end up with the worst signing rate for first 10 round picks in Indians' history.
C'mon, Indians. You are a small market club. You cannot blow a draft like you blew this one. You just can't, because this is going to be a disaster. Let's hope the July International amateur signing period turns out better for us. I have a sneaking suspicion that behind closed doors, the Indians management and ownership feels that putting money into that is more productive than throwing money at draft choices.
So where do the Indians stand on all of this? I am really not sure. But let's, once again, look at what they are good and bad at:
Good: Identifying, picking and developing 2nd and 3rd tier college pitchers who they can mold into major league pitchers.
Bad: Developing any viable catching prospect
Bad: Developing high school pitchers to get them to the majors
Bad: Working with HS athletes to develop them into viable ML hitters, even if those athletes (eg, Will Benson, Quentin Holmes, etc.) have good pedigrees coming out of high school. Note that Nolan Jones, one of those types of players, is hitting pretty well but his power has not developed and, in fact, has regressed this year.
Given the above, you would guess that they would:
(a) Bring in coaches/staff who could develop these kids into ML hitters and pitcher
or
(b) Stop drafting high school pitchers and hitters and focus on college players
So what did we do: In the first draft led by our new scouting director, Scott Barnsby, in the first 10 rounds we drafted a lot of HS players, some of which were highly questionable picks, one questionable college hitter and 3 college guys who project as relief pitchers.
So in those first 10 rounds we drafted towards our developmental weakness. In the last 30 rounds we drafted 21 college pitchers, many of who had stats and attributes that made them perfect to play to our developmental strengths.
But it's the first 10 rounds where you normally get your stars from.
A number of quotes from Mr. Barnsby were really interesting, two in particular:
“We were really aggressive on Day 1, so I’m not sure how many opportunities we’re going to have to sign some of those younger guys on Day 3.”
In other words, he is saying that they will have to pay a lot of money for the guys in the first 10 rounds so there won't be a lot of money left for 'flyers' picked in later rounds. That's good because there was only one flyer picked in the last 30 rounds.
It is kind of hard to believe that we were aggressive in the first 10 rounds as we drafted exactly ONE guy who was rated higher than where we drafted him and a number of the HS picks in those first 10 rounds were really questionable talents compared to where they were drafted.
“There was a group of college bats that we had up there maybe more so than normal,” he said. “It’s really difficult to scout a high school hitter and a lot of times in high school they need to get stronger, there’s a lot of things that they need to work out mentally. They go to college, they perform for three years, then all of a sudden you feel more comfortable about taking those guys."
So, let me get this straight. You had a bunch of college hitters high on your draft board and yet you didn't pick any of them? One way to interpret that is that you got aced out of the guys you really wanted to draft and thought you could sign and had to panic and settle for guys you really didn't want.
So, in summary, I will be harsh. I think Scott Barnsby blew his first draft. Blew it out his butt hole, frankly. My prediction is that he will overpay his top 4 round guys, guys he probably wasn't even targeting, just to save face on the draft. We will waste this money as these guys are not good enough for the bonuses they will get. Except for Espino, it will not even be close. Or maybe he will come to his senses and let some of these guys walk, like Valdes and Naranjo, who I think we can get draft choices for next year if we don't sign them. If he lets some of these guys walk, we will end up with the worst signing rate for first 10 round picks in Indians' history.
C'mon, Indians. You are a small market club. You cannot blow a draft like you blew this one. You just can't, because this is going to be a disaster. Let's hope the July International amateur signing period turns out better for us. I have a sneaking suspicion that behind closed doors, the Indians management and ownership feels that putting money into that is more productive than throwing money at draft choices.
Wednesday, June 5, 2019
2019 Draft - Day 3 Analysis
OK, here we go. Here is where the Indians usually find some value. I am not a draft guru and I can't tell you how the Indians do in that regard to other teams but, historically, the Indians have been much better in recent years getting value from these picks. Adam Plutko and Zac Plesac come to mind but there have been other guys. More on that in a future post. Let's dive into today's picks.
11th round - Nick Mikolajchak - RHP - college junior. He was used primarily as a reliever and fits the Indians mold of 2nd or 3rd tier college pitchers: better than 1.0 K/ip ratio and good K/BB ratio. This looks like a typical Indians' pick that stands a good chance to net them a 5th-7th inning reliever or better. Good pick
12th round - Allan Hernandez - RHP - HS - He sounds good on paper and this is another area the Indians excel in. Taking HS or college guys who others think would be tough signs and throw a little extra money at them to get them to sign. I like this pick if he signs. I could see them going to $175,000 or $200,000 with him if they like him. How he advances is another question. Normally we are drafting guys like Plesac or Plutko at this point and there is little doubt about their polish, just whether it and their remaining projection will be enough to get them to the majors. Not the same for a HS kid. Given how low he was rated and drafted he could have a short career or a very long one in the low minors (slow development path). OK pick if he signs and I predict he will sign.
13th round - Micah Pries - college junior - CF - You may hear Ka'ai Tom or Steven Kwan comps but remember those guys were 5th round guys and more highly rated than Pries. Still, he profiles like Kwan- and Tom-lite.
14th round - Ike Freeman - college junior - SS - Hit .279 this year but had a .415 OBP and more walks than strikeouts. Looks like an organizational player like Tyler Friis, but with a little more power, if he signs.
15th round - Trey Benton - college junior - RHP - College reliever, good K/IP, good K/BB rate. Sound familiar? He did not pitch for a lot of the season as he had an arm injury. Normally that type of guy would come back for his senior year but if Benton knows, as I am sure he does, how good the Indians are at getting guys back fast after arm injuries, he might sign just to get the medical care1
16th round - Jordan Jones - college junior - RHP - Starting pitcher at a good school (Washington). Historically this type of guy does not sign with the Indians when drafted this late. His numbers don't jump out at me but he may have something there.
17th round - Julian Escebado - college junior - CF - Similar to Pries and Freeman, not much there to show that he will not just be another organizational player. At least they are taking middle of the field players (C-SS-CF) guys.
18th - Matt Waldron - RHP - senior sign - Nebraska - He averaged 11.7 K per 9 innings this year. He appears to be the typical Indians' late draft pick. He clearly has one or more swing-and-miss pitches so he stands a chance as a reliever. Good pick
19th - Kevin Kelly RHP - college junior - Kelly is an interesting guy with a good K/IP and K/BB rates.
20th - Nic Enright - RHP - college senior - Once again, he has a good K/IP ratio, something the Indians seem to value...and it works very well for them. Another intriguing college reliever.
2st - Michal Amditis - C - college junior - Every year they draft depth college catchers. Amditis is just another one. At least if he stays with it he could end up getting an invite to ST to catch bullpens, if nothing else comes of him being drafted.
22nd - Michael Pinorini - C - college senior - see Amditis
23rd - Chandler Fidel - LHP - college junior - Just as if on cue, "college catchers - check; college LHP - check". Every draft they draft some lefties. Their success rate with LHP is much lower than their success rate with RHP as far as making them relievers but Nelson, Speer and others have started making their way up the system so if this kid has the stuff (better than 1.0 K: says he does) maybe they can make an effective LHRP out of him.
24th - Joab Gonzalez - SS - 2nd year juco player - Another organizational pick. The Indians almost never sign one of these JUCO guys as, drafted this low, they almost always roll the dice and go to the 4 year school that has offered them a scholarship hoping to raise their draft stock next spring.
25th - Eric Mock - RHP - college senior - Another good K/IP guy who, like Fidel, did it at a high level school. Interesting pick...again...for the nth time.
26th - Armani Sanchez - SS - HS - Ahhh, the first HS flyer in this draft. This is like Groundhog Day from previous Indians' drafts. They are out of guys they want to sign and so just start picking contingency flyers. These guys always seem to pop up if money is left over from the early rounds. But teams, including the Indians, always draft one or more of them just in case the one player they are going to pay overslot money to fails to sign. Look for Sanchez to go to college.
27th - Landy Pena - SS - HS - Flyer #2. See Sanchez above
28th - Serafino Brito - RHP - college senior - College reliever, organizational depth but still hovering around 1 K:IP in both his junior and senior seasons.
29th - Nate Ocker - RHP - college senior - Another college reliever, another guy with more than 1 K:IP.
30th - Jonathon French - C - HS - Ahhh, the penultimate flyer pick. One or more of these HS flyer picks each year is a highly ranked guy who wasn't drafted early because of a strong commitment to college. French is that guy this year. He won't sign. They never do or, as highly rated as they are (124, 4th round talent) they would have been drafted much earlier.
There it is. Analysis of the complete draft will be coming in the next day or so.
11th round - Nick Mikolajchak - RHP - college junior. He was used primarily as a reliever and fits the Indians mold of 2nd or 3rd tier college pitchers: better than 1.0 K/ip ratio and good K/BB ratio. This looks like a typical Indians' pick that stands a good chance to net them a 5th-7th inning reliever or better. Good pick
12th round - Allan Hernandez - RHP - HS - He sounds good on paper and this is another area the Indians excel in. Taking HS or college guys who others think would be tough signs and throw a little extra money at them to get them to sign. I like this pick if he signs. I could see them going to $175,000 or $200,000 with him if they like him. How he advances is another question. Normally we are drafting guys like Plesac or Plutko at this point and there is little doubt about their polish, just whether it and their remaining projection will be enough to get them to the majors. Not the same for a HS kid. Given how low he was rated and drafted he could have a short career or a very long one in the low minors (slow development path). OK pick if he signs and I predict he will sign.
13th round - Micah Pries - college junior - CF - You may hear Ka'ai Tom or Steven Kwan comps but remember those guys were 5th round guys and more highly rated than Pries. Still, he profiles like Kwan- and Tom-lite.
14th round - Ike Freeman - college junior - SS - Hit .279 this year but had a .415 OBP and more walks than strikeouts. Looks like an organizational player like Tyler Friis, but with a little more power, if he signs.
15th round - Trey Benton - college junior - RHP - College reliever, good K/IP, good K/BB rate. Sound familiar? He did not pitch for a lot of the season as he had an arm injury. Normally that type of guy would come back for his senior year but if Benton knows, as I am sure he does, how good the Indians are at getting guys back fast after arm injuries, he might sign just to get the medical care1
16th round - Jordan Jones - college junior - RHP - Starting pitcher at a good school (Washington). Historically this type of guy does not sign with the Indians when drafted this late. His numbers don't jump out at me but he may have something there.
17th round - Julian Escebado - college junior - CF - Similar to Pries and Freeman, not much there to show that he will not just be another organizational player. At least they are taking middle of the field players (C-SS-CF) guys.
18th - Matt Waldron - RHP - senior sign - Nebraska - He averaged 11.7 K per 9 innings this year. He appears to be the typical Indians' late draft pick. He clearly has one or more swing-and-miss pitches so he stands a chance as a reliever. Good pick
19th - Kevin Kelly RHP - college junior - Kelly is an interesting guy with a good K/IP and K/BB rates.
20th - Nic Enright - RHP - college senior - Once again, he has a good K/IP ratio, something the Indians seem to value...and it works very well for them. Another intriguing college reliever.
2st - Michal Amditis - C - college junior - Every year they draft depth college catchers. Amditis is just another one. At least if he stays with it he could end up getting an invite to ST to catch bullpens, if nothing else comes of him being drafted.
22nd - Michael Pinorini - C - college senior - see Amditis
23rd - Chandler Fidel - LHP - college junior - Just as if on cue, "college catchers - check; college LHP - check". Every draft they draft some lefties. Their success rate with LHP is much lower than their success rate with RHP as far as making them relievers but Nelson, Speer and others have started making their way up the system so if this kid has the stuff (better than 1.0 K: says he does) maybe they can make an effective LHRP out of him.
24th - Joab Gonzalez - SS - 2nd year juco player - Another organizational pick. The Indians almost never sign one of these JUCO guys as, drafted this low, they almost always roll the dice and go to the 4 year school that has offered them a scholarship hoping to raise their draft stock next spring.
25th - Eric Mock - RHP - college senior - Another good K/IP guy who, like Fidel, did it at a high level school. Interesting pick...again...for the nth time.
26th - Armani Sanchez - SS - HS - Ahhh, the first HS flyer in this draft. This is like Groundhog Day from previous Indians' drafts. They are out of guys they want to sign and so just start picking contingency flyers. These guys always seem to pop up if money is left over from the early rounds. But teams, including the Indians, always draft one or more of them just in case the one player they are going to pay overslot money to fails to sign. Look for Sanchez to go to college.
27th - Landy Pena - SS - HS - Flyer #2. See Sanchez above
28th - Serafino Brito - RHP - college senior - College reliever, organizational depth but still hovering around 1 K:IP in both his junior and senior seasons.
29th - Nate Ocker - RHP - college senior - Another college reliever, another guy with more than 1 K:IP.
30th - Jonathon French - C - HS - Ahhh, the penultimate flyer pick. One or more of these HS flyer picks each year is a highly ranked guy who wasn't drafted early because of a strong commitment to college. French is that guy this year. He won't sign. They never do or, as highly rated as they are (124, 4th round talent) they would have been drafted much earlier.
There it is. Analysis of the complete draft will be coming in the next day or so.
Tuesday, June 4, 2019
Draft Analysis - Day 2 picks
OK, quick summary first:
First, for what it is worth, Jim Callis listed his favorite picks each round for day 2. No Indians' pick made that list and one of Minnesota's picks and two of Detroit's picks made it.
That, in a nutshell, summarizes my feelings of Day 2. No pick stood out for me. There were lots of head scratchers as I can easily see with so many HS players chosen, this year may represent the worst signing performance this organization has had in the first 10 rounds for quite some time. The HS guys they picked are set up either to underperform (Torres, Naranjo) or not sign (Brown, Bartlett). Only Cairo and Espino look like they even have any potential at this point and that is NOT something you want to hear in your first 10 round picks.
Remembering that we traded away our CB pick this year to Sesttle, I speculate now like I did then: is it possible that the Indians are de-emphasizing the draft and applying more resources to international signings?
Looking at these first 10 rounds I also have a prediction: this will both be our worst 10 round signing percentage in a long time and, not even counting the guys who don't sign, we will leave bonus money on the table for the first time in a long time. Now, if we stop drafting before the 30th round (which I am not predicting we will) then something is really up.
Now, let's talk about each pick and you will be able to see why I have the opinions above..
Round 3 - Joseph Naranjo - Look, he is listed as 6' 180. For comparison Torres is listed as 6' 170. I don't know what they see in this guy but if you are a HS first baseman you are not that athletic. So we have a short, thin suspect athletic ability guy whose separating tool is supposed to be power. The only way this pick works out is if they turn him into a catcher and he succeeds at it. I know that is a strong statement but this pick doesn't make sense to me. Oh, and they better be signing this guy to an underslot bonus as he was drafted at least one round too high. This pick, following up on the Torres pick, is making this draft look like possibly one of the worst in Indians' history, and that is saying a lot.
Round 4 - Christian Cairo - Every Indians' draft has a player who is likely going to get leftover bonus money. In this draft it is Cairo. He was a 3rd round talent drafted in the 4th round. Good value here if he signs. If he doesn't sign this draft is already looking pretty pathetic.
So the Indians, who have had almost zero luck developing HS bats and HS pitchers fill up their first four picks with those guys. Just as an FYI, Nolan Jones was supposed to have power. He has shown none. As a 3rd baseman that makes him very suspect in my book and he is lookin like he may not even be good enough to stick at 3rd. Bobby Bradley as late as last year hit .235 in the minors. Will Benson is very suspect in repeating low A ball in his 4th year in the organization and Quentin Holmes just looks overmatched most of the time. Besides trotting out Tyler Freeman, people need to realize how bad we are at developing HS hitters.
Round 5 - Hunter Gaddis - This is the typical Indians' small college top 10 round pick. They have had lots of luck with those picks so you gotta cut them some slack on this pick and I will.
Round 6 - Jordan Brown - A HS SS, a guy like him is unlikely to sign as he won't command much of a bonus.
Round 7 - Xzavion Curry - Another college arm who has great secondary stuff and an average fastball. Again, slack is given.
Roiund 8 - Will Brennan - A college outfielder/pitcher as a lowly rated college junior he would have to be an underslot bonus guy for this to make sense. However, you do have to remember that Ka'i Tom and Steven Kwan looked like blah picks and they are still going strong in the system so, once again, I cut the Indians some slack with this pick
Round 9 - William Bartlett - Drafted as a catcher, historically high school catchers drafted at this point or later just go to college. This seems like a bad pick to me because he isn't that good and he likely won't sign. Now, if it turns out that he will sign for well under slot, I take this back. But I do believe this kid goes to college knowing that he can easily match or exceed the bonus he will be offered three years from now.
Round 10 - Zack Hart - Typical Indians' college pitcher senior sign. Slack given again here.
First, for what it is worth, Jim Callis listed his favorite picks each round for day 2. No Indians' pick made that list and one of Minnesota's picks and two of Detroit's picks made it.
That, in a nutshell, summarizes my feelings of Day 2. No pick stood out for me. There were lots of head scratchers as I can easily see with so many HS players chosen, this year may represent the worst signing performance this organization has had in the first 10 rounds for quite some time. The HS guys they picked are set up either to underperform (Torres, Naranjo) or not sign (Brown, Bartlett). Only Cairo and Espino look like they even have any potential at this point and that is NOT something you want to hear in your first 10 round picks.
Remembering that we traded away our CB pick this year to Sesttle, I speculate now like I did then: is it possible that the Indians are de-emphasizing the draft and applying more resources to international signings?
Looking at these first 10 rounds I also have a prediction: this will both be our worst 10 round signing percentage in a long time and, not even counting the guys who don't sign, we will leave bonus money on the table for the first time in a long time. Now, if we stop drafting before the 30th round (which I am not predicting we will) then something is really up.
Now, let's talk about each pick and you will be able to see why I have the opinions above..
Round 3 - Joseph Naranjo - Look, he is listed as 6' 180. For comparison Torres is listed as 6' 170. I don't know what they see in this guy but if you are a HS first baseman you are not that athletic. So we have a short, thin suspect athletic ability guy whose separating tool is supposed to be power. The only way this pick works out is if they turn him into a catcher and he succeeds at it. I know that is a strong statement but this pick doesn't make sense to me. Oh, and they better be signing this guy to an underslot bonus as he was drafted at least one round too high. This pick, following up on the Torres pick, is making this draft look like possibly one of the worst in Indians' history, and that is saying a lot.
Round 4 - Christian Cairo - Every Indians' draft has a player who is likely going to get leftover bonus money. In this draft it is Cairo. He was a 3rd round talent drafted in the 4th round. Good value here if he signs. If he doesn't sign this draft is already looking pretty pathetic.
So the Indians, who have had almost zero luck developing HS bats and HS pitchers fill up their first four picks with those guys. Just as an FYI, Nolan Jones was supposed to have power. He has shown none. As a 3rd baseman that makes him very suspect in my book and he is lookin like he may not even be good enough to stick at 3rd. Bobby Bradley as late as last year hit .235 in the minors. Will Benson is very suspect in repeating low A ball in his 4th year in the organization and Quentin Holmes just looks overmatched most of the time. Besides trotting out Tyler Freeman, people need to realize how bad we are at developing HS hitters.
Round 5 - Hunter Gaddis - This is the typical Indians' small college top 10 round pick. They have had lots of luck with those picks so you gotta cut them some slack on this pick and I will.
Round 6 - Jordan Brown - A HS SS, a guy like him is unlikely to sign as he won't command much of a bonus.
Round 7 - Xzavion Curry - Another college arm who has great secondary stuff and an average fastball. Again, slack is given.
Roiund 8 - Will Brennan - A college outfielder/pitcher as a lowly rated college junior he would have to be an underslot bonus guy for this to make sense. However, you do have to remember that Ka'i Tom and Steven Kwan looked like blah picks and they are still going strong in the system so, once again, I cut the Indians some slack with this pick
Round 9 - William Bartlett - Drafted as a catcher, historically high school catchers drafted at this point or later just go to college. This seems like a bad pick to me because he isn't that good and he likely won't sign. Now, if it turns out that he will sign for well under slot, I take this back. But I do believe this kid goes to college knowing that he can easily match or exceed the bonus he will be offered three years from now.
Round 10 - Zack Hart - Typical Indians' college pitcher senior sign. Slack given again here.
Anallysis of our second round pick
In the second round the Indians drafted a fielding first HS shortstop, Yordys Valdes. Not exactly what you would have imagined a team almost devoid of power hitting prospects and whose strength is to develop college pitchers might do. I mean, you get your slick fielding shortstops from the Dominican Republic, right?
So, what happened?
Was he a highly rated guy who dropped to the Indians and they took a flyer on him? Nope, he was drafted 63rd and he was the 82nd ranked player.
Was he a guy who could change positions and let his bat carry him? Nope. His hit tool is rated a 45.
So, again I asked, what happened.
Well, here is what I think.
The Indians were really targeting two college pitchers, Matt Canterino and Rhye Nelson. The rest of the college pitchers had significant warts on them that would make them not really worthy of a 2nd round pick. Basically, I think the Indians thought the other pitchers weren't the type they could develop like they did with Bieber, Plesac, et al.
So they were stuck. Their Plan Z sucked but they were forced to go to Plan Z. That is why this pick looks so odd. If this was football they would have probably done a deal and traded this 2nd round pick for two 3rd round picks or something like that.
Now the Indians will likely say I am wrong and they were targeting Valdes all along.
But an organization that is weak at developing HS hitters and who already has lots of middle infield prospects at the low level of the minors, all of whom can hit better than Valdes, doesn't take a defensive player first. This is especially true when their recent history of drafting defensive players who they thought they could turn into hitters has gone so dismally. If you don't believe that look at the second round pick they wasted on Loga Ice a few years ago. Ice was close to a ML-ready catcher but, save one small sample size right before the draft, he was NOT a hitter.
So given their bad history at developing hitters drafted out of HS, their strength at developing college pitchers and their failure at turning defensive0first players into hitters, how did they end up with a guy like Valdes as their second pick?
I already told you: Plan Z, every other guy on their board above Valdes and significantly below Valdes was taken already.
Right now this draft is looking shaky. Valdes is likely to never to get out of A ball. Espino is a lights out reliever but does this organization need another reliever prospect? For a team that really needs prospects this doesn't seem like a good draft so far. But maybe the Indians know something. Maybe both Espino and Valdes will sign for under slot so we have more money to play with. Or maybe they don't put much stock into the high rounds of the draft any more. Maybe that is why they were so free to give away their competitive balance pick this last winter. Maybe they are saving their dimes for the international free agent period in July because they feel high round domestic talent is overrated and overvalued.
Who knows? What I do know is that these first two picks don't look like what a team on the cusp of a rebuild would be making, looking at their organizational strengths and weaknesses. So I will wait for the other shoe to drop sometime this year or this coming winter. Because there has to be another shoe dropping, right?
So, what happened?
Was he a highly rated guy who dropped to the Indians and they took a flyer on him? Nope, he was drafted 63rd and he was the 82nd ranked player.
Was he a guy who could change positions and let his bat carry him? Nope. His hit tool is rated a 45.
So, again I asked, what happened.
Well, here is what I think.
The Indians were really targeting two college pitchers, Matt Canterino and Rhye Nelson. The rest of the college pitchers had significant warts on them that would make them not really worthy of a 2nd round pick. Basically, I think the Indians thought the other pitchers weren't the type they could develop like they did with Bieber, Plesac, et al.
So they were stuck. Their Plan Z sucked but they were forced to go to Plan Z. That is why this pick looks so odd. If this was football they would have probably done a deal and traded this 2nd round pick for two 3rd round picks or something like that.
Now the Indians will likely say I am wrong and they were targeting Valdes all along.
But an organization that is weak at developing HS hitters and who already has lots of middle infield prospects at the low level of the minors, all of whom can hit better than Valdes, doesn't take a defensive player first. This is especially true when their recent history of drafting defensive players who they thought they could turn into hitters has gone so dismally. If you don't believe that look at the second round pick they wasted on Loga Ice a few years ago. Ice was close to a ML-ready catcher but, save one small sample size right before the draft, he was NOT a hitter.
So given their bad history at developing hitters drafted out of HS, their strength at developing college pitchers and their failure at turning defensive0first players into hitters, how did they end up with a guy like Valdes as their second pick?
I already told you: Plan Z, every other guy on their board above Valdes and significantly below Valdes was taken already.
Right now this draft is looking shaky. Valdes is likely to never to get out of A ball. Espino is a lights out reliever but does this organization need another reliever prospect? For a team that really needs prospects this doesn't seem like a good draft so far. But maybe the Indians know something. Maybe both Espino and Valdes will sign for under slot so we have more money to play with. Or maybe they don't put much stock into the high rounds of the draft any more. Maybe that is why they were so free to give away their competitive balance pick this last winter. Maybe they are saving their dimes for the international free agent period in July because they feel high round domestic talent is overrated and overvalued.
Who knows? What I do know is that these first two picks don't look like what a team on the cusp of a rebuild would be making, looking at their organizational strengths and weaknesses. So I will wait for the other shoe to drop sometime this year or this coming winter. Because there has to be another shoe dropping, right?
Monday, June 3, 2019
Daniel Espino
The Indians' first round pick is another Espino kid who moved from Panama as a high schooler to become eligible for the draft.
The last Espino was a 10th round pick in 2006.
Thirteen years later Daniel Espino, taking mostly the same path, was a 1st round pick, 24th overall.
The former has toiled for 13 years in the minors getting only a couple of cups of coffee in 2017 with the Brewers and Rangers.
The latter will take his first step, hopefully, this summer.
So let's break down this pick. The last few HS pitchers the Indians took in the first round was Triston McKenzie. Also notable first round picks (including supplemental first rounders) who were HS pitchers include Adam Miller and one other guy I can't recall right now. We also had second rounders like Trey Haley and Juan Hillman. And who can forget the 2001 draft where selected two HS pitchers in the first round: Daniel Denham (never made it to the majors), Alan Horne (did not sign) and JD Martin (cups of coffee years down the road).
As you can see, our luck drafting high school pitchers early has been limited, at best. McKenzie looked like a sure thing but he keeps getting hurt. Adam Miller, who probably holds the Indians' team record in at least one category (most times being the Indians' top prospect without ever making an appearance in the majors), was another notable Indians' prospect who, just for luck, should never have his name mentioned in the same paragraph with McKenzie......Oooops!
Was this a good pick? Maybe, maybe not. But I think the Indians' hand was called very early in this draft. A number of college position players linked to the Indians in mock drafts were gone long before their draft slot. College pitchers who were available probably can be had (or guys with similar tools) in the 2nd and 3rd round. Espino was the best SIGNABLE player on the board at this point. Yeah, there were higher ranked HS pitchers but Espino was a good AND safe choice here.
I think, if he stays healthy, Espino becomes a lock to make the majors as a reliever, or at least as much of a lock as an 18 year old can be. If that is what the Indians bought with their $2.83 million slot then so be it. As the scouting reports say, he doesn't have a lot of upside in his body and, maybe, except for the mechanical flaws that Trevor Bauer pointed out, not in his arm, either. Of course, when you touch 100 mph already, it doesn't take much improvement except in command.
So, was this a 'safe' pick like Beau Mills was? Absolutely not. It was a SAFE pick as in we are as likely to get a major league player out of this slot as any other late first rounder we have ever drafted. So I applaud this pick. The Indians are great at taking college pitchers and turning them into studs in the bullpen (e.g., Cody Allen). Let's see how they turn this flamethrower into a ML reliever from his roots as a HS kid.
Now, on to tomorrow.
The last Espino was a 10th round pick in 2006.
Thirteen years later Daniel Espino, taking mostly the same path, was a 1st round pick, 24th overall.
The former has toiled for 13 years in the minors getting only a couple of cups of coffee in 2017 with the Brewers and Rangers.
The latter will take his first step, hopefully, this summer.
So let's break down this pick. The last few HS pitchers the Indians took in the first round was Triston McKenzie. Also notable first round picks (including supplemental first rounders) who were HS pitchers include Adam Miller and one other guy I can't recall right now. We also had second rounders like Trey Haley and Juan Hillman. And who can forget the 2001 draft where selected two HS pitchers in the first round: Daniel Denham (never made it to the majors), Alan Horne (did not sign) and JD Martin (cups of coffee years down the road).
As you can see, our luck drafting high school pitchers early has been limited, at best. McKenzie looked like a sure thing but he keeps getting hurt. Adam Miller, who probably holds the Indians' team record in at least one category (most times being the Indians' top prospect without ever making an appearance in the majors), was another notable Indians' prospect who, just for luck, should never have his name mentioned in the same paragraph with McKenzie......Oooops!
Was this a good pick? Maybe, maybe not. But I think the Indians' hand was called very early in this draft. A number of college position players linked to the Indians in mock drafts were gone long before their draft slot. College pitchers who were available probably can be had (or guys with similar tools) in the 2nd and 3rd round. Espino was the best SIGNABLE player on the board at this point. Yeah, there were higher ranked HS pitchers but Espino was a good AND safe choice here.
I think, if he stays healthy, Espino becomes a lock to make the majors as a reliever, or at least as much of a lock as an 18 year old can be. If that is what the Indians bought with their $2.83 million slot then so be it. As the scouting reports say, he doesn't have a lot of upside in his body and, maybe, except for the mechanical flaws that Trevor Bauer pointed out, not in his arm, either. Of course, when you touch 100 mph already, it doesn't take much improvement except in command.
So, was this a 'safe' pick like Beau Mills was? Absolutely not. It was a SAFE pick as in we are as likely to get a major league player out of this slot as any other late first rounder we have ever drafted. So I applaud this pick. The Indians are great at taking college pitchers and turning them into studs in the bullpen (e.g., Cody Allen). Let's see how they turn this flamethrower into a ML reliever from his roots as a HS kid.
Now, on to tomorrow.
It's draft day...and other thoughts
First, I am less scared about them trade Plesac now and more scared of them doing a Yan Gomes dump of Bauer and Kluber. So, yeah, I am thinking the Indians will NOT be adding veterans at the deadline and now am worried about them doing salary dumps disguised as rebuilding trades at the deadline. Such is the life of an Indains' fan.
On a more positive note let's talk about the ML amateur draft which starts today. But first I digress.
The Buckeyes recently got a commitment from the best wide receiver in the country in the 2020 draft class. Why: many reasons but the long and short of it was that they develop receivers into NFL players.
Using the same logic, the Indians should spend almost the entire draft drafting college pitchers. If a good college hitter falls to them in the first round then, by all means, draft them. But after that, it should be college pitchers all the time through the top 12 rounds at least.
Just look at their recent record of guys who were not top draft prospects and yet are looking like top prospects and even major leaguers for the Indians, and who have gotten to the majors very quickly
Shane Beiber
Zac Plesac
Aaron Civale
James Karinchak
Eli Morgan
Nick Sandlin
and even Adam Scott and Robert Broom and Adam Plutko
Not to even mention Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber who they put through finishing school after their training started with other teams.
The Indians do this very well. What they don't do well is develop high school pitchers, high school hitters and, especially, high school and college catchers and, for the most part, college hitters.
So while the Indians need hitting and so you would think they should draft college hitters, they shouldn't focus there. Instead, they should focus on developing pitchers with the intent of trade young pitching for young hitting down the road.
One more point: Julian Fleming went to Ohio State. He made a tough choice as he was originally a lock to go to Penn State and lives close to there. Why did he make that choice? Because he wanted to play at the highest level. In baseball the tough choice is not WHO you are drafted by but WHAT they will pay you. My guess is that some of the tougher signings might sign with the Indians, trading the larger bonus they wanted for a quick path to the major leagues.
So, not only should the Indians draft college pitchers, they should save a little money for a couple of college pitcher flyers. They might be able to get those guys at a discount because young guys know that while a bonus is great, the real money comes from making it to majors. Given that the major league minimum salary is $555,000 this year, that's the bonus slot value of the 105th player drafted this year. So maybe a guy who wants a million but is still sitting there in the 4th round because no one thinks he is worth high second round money, would sign with the Indians for an overslot $500,000 bonus in the 4th round because he really wants to start his pro career and he knows the Indians will likely develop him faster.
So, that's the formula for the Indians in this draft:
First round: Best available college bat
Second through 12th rounds: College pitchers with enough college seniors so we have above slot money for 2 flyers.
After the 12th round: Whoever they think will sign and can be developed.
Strange philosophy for a team that needs pitching but one that I think will work.
On a more positive note let's talk about the ML amateur draft which starts today. But first I digress.
The Buckeyes recently got a commitment from the best wide receiver in the country in the 2020 draft class. Why: many reasons but the long and short of it was that they develop receivers into NFL players.
Using the same logic, the Indians should spend almost the entire draft drafting college pitchers. If a good college hitter falls to them in the first round then, by all means, draft them. But after that, it should be college pitchers all the time through the top 12 rounds at least.
Just look at their recent record of guys who were not top draft prospects and yet are looking like top prospects and even major leaguers for the Indians, and who have gotten to the majors very quickly
Shane Beiber
Zac Plesac
Aaron Civale
James Karinchak
Eli Morgan
Nick Sandlin
and even Adam Scott and Robert Broom and Adam Plutko
Not to even mention Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber who they put through finishing school after their training started with other teams.
The Indians do this very well. What they don't do well is develop high school pitchers, high school hitters and, especially, high school and college catchers and, for the most part, college hitters.
So while the Indians need hitting and so you would think they should draft college hitters, they shouldn't focus there. Instead, they should focus on developing pitchers with the intent of trade young pitching for young hitting down the road.
One more point: Julian Fleming went to Ohio State. He made a tough choice as he was originally a lock to go to Penn State and lives close to there. Why did he make that choice? Because he wanted to play at the highest level. In baseball the tough choice is not WHO you are drafted by but WHAT they will pay you. My guess is that some of the tougher signings might sign with the Indians, trading the larger bonus they wanted for a quick path to the major leagues.
So, not only should the Indians draft college pitchers, they should save a little money for a couple of college pitcher flyers. They might be able to get those guys at a discount because young guys know that while a bonus is great, the real money comes from making it to majors. Given that the major league minimum salary is $555,000 this year, that's the bonus slot value of the 105th player drafted this year. So maybe a guy who wants a million but is still sitting there in the 4th round because no one thinks he is worth high second round money, would sign with the Indians for an overslot $500,000 bonus in the 4th round because he really wants to start his pro career and he knows the Indians will likely develop him faster.
So, that's the formula for the Indians in this draft:
First round: Best available college bat
Second through 12th rounds: College pitchers with enough college seniors so we have above slot money for 2 flyers.
After the 12th round: Whoever they think will sign and can be developed.
Strange philosophy for a team that needs pitching but one that I think will work.
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