Saturday, December 24, 2016

The Loss of a Draft pick for signing Encarnacion

In the afterglow of the signing of Edwin Encarnacion we should consider the impact of the Indians losing their first round pick from the 2017 draft.

First, realize that their Indians' first round pick (#27) was one of the lowest first round picks the Indians have had in its history, with only Danny Peoples (1996), Tim Drew (1997) and Lonnie Chisenhall (2008) being lower (NOTE: Corey Smith in 2000 was drafted in the 26th slot).   But the Indians, being a small market club, value their first round picks.  In fact, if I read the drafts correctly, this will only be the 3rd draft in the history of the ML draft in which the Indians do not have a pick before the second round of the draft (the other two being in 1987 and 1999)!

The are two things that really bother Indians' draftniks (of which I am one) about the loss of this pick:

1. As the Indians will not have a first round pick, their first selection will roughly be around #65, the second lowest first picks in Indians' history.  The only time the Indians ever picked lower was in 1999 when, against predominant opinion and, to the laughter of most of baseball, selected Wil Hartley at #74.   This is sometimes what happens when a team is reaching for the brass ring in a year they don't have a high pick.   That being said, in 1987 they took a flyer on Albert Belle (at #47) who was clearly talented but had attitude problems at LSU that hurt his draft status.   No matter how it worked out, this was a gamble, again something desperate teams might do when they don't have a first round pick.

2. The way the collective bargaining agreement CURRENTLY reads, the Indians will have a very small bonus pool with which to work.  Why?  Because the way bonus slotting works, the higher the draft pick the more the slot is worth.   Why does that matter?  Well, teams with very high draft picks generally have very big bonus pools.  In the past those teams, including the Indians, have been able to save a little money on their first round picks that they were able to spread around to picks after the first round, maybe being able to sign HS players away from college commitments by giving them more money than other ML teams were willing to give them.  Right now the Indians can't do that and really, in the 2017 draft, basically have two possible strategies; (a) draft a bunch of guys at slot value, meaning the depth of their draft could be good but the star power not good or (b) draft a bunch of college seniors in the first 10 rounds and save most of their bonus pool for 1 or 2 guys who drop out of the first round due to bonus demands that are perceived by the industry as being too high for whatever reason.   Either of these paths are generally seen by draftniks as possible disaster scenarios for the Indians' acquisition of talent to keep their prospect pipeline flowing along.

Now, I don't know what the Indians are thinking about this but, for me, losing a pick so low in the first round is not the end of the world for a few reasons:

1. The slot amount for that pick is so low there really isn't a lot of slack in that pick to save money.

2. Since we only got a competitive balance pick at the end of round 2 instead of last year when we got that pick at the end of round 1, there is a much lower possibility that there will be any impact players left who we can go over slot with meaning we are more likely to use scenario (a) above.   If we do that we will have money to spare compared to last year's draft and will have to find impact talent in a different way, which brings me to...

3. The Indians are normally very frugal spenders in the international free agent market.  They have not paid millions of dollars to the top international amateur free agents nor have they signed professional free agents from Asia or even Cuba due to high price tags.   Instead, they have spread their money around hoping to out-scout the other teams to get more prospects for less money per prospect.  This philosophy has worked to some extent as the Indians have obtained prospects like Danny Salazar going this route.  In 2017, if the Indians take excess scouting dollars and excess bonus dollars they won't have to use to scout a bunch of and pay a first round pick, they will have the ability, and should use it, to not take this volume-over-quality approach and, rather, spend most of their money on a few top international free agents.   They also have 6 months to do the leg work in places like the Dominican Republic and in the professional and amateur leagues in Asia to identify a couple of guys who they want to treat like first round picks in this draft.  If you see the Indians trade guys for international pool spending dollars it will be a good indicator they are going that way.   Even without, that, however, they still should be able to get some star quality prospects if they just sign a few high value prospects rather than a number of lower value prospects.

So, if the Indians take the international approach I suggested above, it is very possible that the 2017 draft plus international signing period combined could yield a very strong influx of talent into the organizationn.    

Friday, December 23, 2016

Elvis having a blue Christmas. Should we add him?

Noticed that former Indians' prospect Elvis Araujo has been DFA'd.   If he gets to us (doubtful, but possible) should we claim him and jettison someone else off of our full 40-man?  Not saying we should but it is worth some thought, at least. 

I would love to have him put it all together as part of a championship team in the organization he started with.   Not a big deal but it would be a nice Cinderella story.

Encarnacion, check!

English is a funny language as words and phrases can have multiple meanings. Take the title of this post.

On one hand it could mean that, given his new contract, we will be expecting Encarnacion to pick up the check when he and his teammates go to dinner as he is the highest paid member of the Indians.

On the other hand it could mean that the Indians have just checked off a major box in their off-season planning.  The have the power hitting first baseman/DH they needed.

Let's focus on the latter meaning.   So the Indians have Encarnacion.   What's left to do?

First, they need two relievers.   Jeff Manship did his job here, and then some.   But what we need is an upgrade over him.   I have said repeatedly that I won't believe until the 2017 regular season is over that the hangover from the massive use of Allen, Shaw and Miller in 2016 won't, at some point this season, come back to bite the Indians.  They need one more 7th/8th inning guy who you aren't afraid to put into a tight playoff situation next year. 

Second, they need to identify a second lefty.   They have done a great job stockpiling guys who throw with their left arms..  Whether any of them can pitch in the majors is still to be seen.  We need a couple more of those guys to come in.   Clearly with Cecil and  Rzepchinski (sp?) got this off-season we will be shopping in the bargain section of the store to find one. 

Finally, we need some more starting depth.   The Indians have been great about signing major league starters on the mend from injuries and rehabbing them.  However, we haven't gotten any production from those guys.  We need to find a couple of decent inning eaters and stash them at AAA.   It would be nice to have 4 solid starters at AAA (Merritt and Plutko will be there) with all them having the ability to relieve, if necessary.  I might consider tandem starting some of those guys just so that they get used to coming out of the bullpen, if necessary, when the Indians need them or in the playoffs when we only need 4 starters.

It would be nice to make a trade for another hitter but we can wait until July for that if we can make an opportunistic move then.

p.s., I feel bad for Mike Napoli.  He provided the spark that helped push us over the top last year.   Thanks, Mike.   Good luck this year. 

Monday, December 19, 2016

How our possibilites are looking

Relief Pitching

I lead with this one because if I am sure of one thing with next year's Indians is that they need a 4th guy because one or more of Miller, Allen or Shaw are going to break down.   So we need a lefty and a righty setup guy.

Daniel Hudson is going to sign with the Pirates for $11 million over 2 years.   Brett Cecil signed a $30 million contract for 4 years with the Cardinals.  

The price of relief pitching is out of this world. 

Look, we need another experienced setup man who might be able to close, if necessary.   That guy was Daniel Hudson who, truth be told, may turn out to be a bargain for the Pirates.    A guy with an ERA north of 5 last year?  Yeah, but if you are betting on a bounce back year, he is a good guy to bet on.

Still, that is a lot of cash.  So we look at the bargain basement and here is what I see: 44 relief pitchers, a lot with major league experience.   Lopez, Ohlendorf, Feliz, Romo, Wood, Hunter, Casilla, Logan, Maness and wildcards like Latos, Papelbon and Blanton.   There are lots of options out there.   The Indians have been great about picking which guys will be good (e.g., Manship, who is still available BTW).  So, if we shop in the basement we might just luck out again.

First base/third base/outfield

There are lots of ways this can be sliced  IF we have a healthy Brantley. 

1. Re-sign Napoli
2. If Brantley comes back, sign an RH hitting outfielder and move Chisenhall to 1B/DH (he can still platoon with Guyer, just that Guyer DHs and Santana plays first against lefties)
3. Get a thirdbaseman (Puoiffe or a trade), move Ramirez to second, Santana to 1B and Kipnis to DH.
4. Sign a catcher who can hit but doesn't catch well any more and let him DH with Santana at 1B full-time AND be our third, emergency catcher. 
5. Pull off a big time trade (like Votto from the Reds) with a team trying to dump a contract. 
6. Sign a big name free agent first baseman, DH or outfielder 

While I would love to have Bautista, Trumbo or Encarnacion on this team I just don't like the dollars and years and the loss of the draft pick that would bring.  So I eliminate 6. right away.  5. is problematic for me, as well, although there is probably a way to get a one-year rental and if they get an OFer, Naquin is expendable and, so, a good trade chip.   Wouldn't Votto look nice in this lineup, though!  I would be willing to give the prospects I would need to get Votto IF the Reds could throw in some relief pitching at no additional, or minimal, charge.  Blake Wood, anyone?  I guess Cingrani is out of the question, right?

As we are rapidly approaching the end of the year there are still a lot of different ways to make this team better and lots of guys out there who could potentially do that.   Bargain FAs available in January...just the way the Indians like it. 

Thursday, December 8, 2016

Rule 5 Results

Well, the Rule 5 results are in.   My overall impression of this draft this year is that I think more talented players than usual were drafted.  Will any of those players stick in the majors next year?  Who knows but I think it is likely than more of them than average in the Rule 5 draft will stick.  One thing for sure, the top 3 guys selected, all of whom are now with the Padres, have a decent chance to stick in the majors as the Padres entered the draft with only 33 players on their major league roster.  To me, along with their record this year, means that they don't have any major league ready prospects and are likely to have a bad, bad team next year, meaning lots of opportunities for minor leaguers like the three they got today to play in the majors next year.  But let's talk about our team and what went on with them today.

The Indians lost more players (5) than they obtained (1) and didn't even select a player in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft (very few of those guys ever even make the majors).   Let's talk about the players they did draft and have drafted.

The Indians obtained:

Hoby Milner, LHP

Opinion:  The Indians are looking every place they can find for that lefty reliever.  Milner was not among the top prospects for the Phillies but he did, this past year, convert to being a reliever with OK results.  He was a middle reliever in college and the track record for college middle relievers making the majors is not good.   The Indians must see something in him as, because Milner was selected in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft, he either has to stay on their roster most of the season next year or he has to be offered back to the Phillies.  Time will tell if he is a legitimate LOOGY candidate or not.  Looking at his numbers compared to Kyle Crockett's I don't understand this pick but I can tell you that a number of head scratchers from the Rule 5 draft in the past have turned into good major league players.   That's why you have scouts!

The Indians lost:

Anthony Santander, OF

Opinion: Santander was my 31st best Indians prospect.  He was 30th on MLB's list.   So he is a prospect of SOME note.  The good news is that Santander has to be kept on the Orioles ACTIVE 25-man roster almost all of next season as he was taken by the Orioles in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft.  However, the bad news there is that he apparently has an injured shoulder meaning he may miss all or part of next season.   The Orioles can stash him on their 60-day DL and, when he is ready to come off, can send him on an extended rehab assignment.   To put this in simple English, if the Orioles play their cards right Santander can remain with them next season because he would spend so much time on the DL and in rehab that he might not even have to play in the majors although he would STILL have to spend 2018 in the majors with the Phillies.  Given his injury and his slow development path, he would likely not be trade bait and might not have helped the Indians until at least 2019, assuming he misses most of this season.  If the Phillies follow the path above, it is likely he won't help the Phillies in the majors until 2020.

Trevor Frank, RHP

In the mold of JP Feiereisn, Ben Heller, Shawn Armstrong and Austin Adams, Frank is one of those college pitchers who the Indians immediately made a reliever.   When healthy, he has thrived.  He is 25 years old and still in A ball.  However, as a reliever, he could still thrive.  Frank is the kind of guy you would expect to lose in the major league portion of the Rule 5 with a chance to get him back if he doesn't still on a major league roster next spring.  Unfortunately, the Indians thought so little of Frank that they didn't even protect him on their 30-player AAA reserve list.  In simple English most teams have two types of prospects: those who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft (roughly 30% of all their prospects) and those who are not yet eligible for the Rule 5 draft (roughly 70% of their prospects).  The prospects they put on the AAA reserve list are generally only prospects who would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft meaning that the Indians didn't consider Frank among their top 60 prospects, give or take a few.  As I didn't have him ranked in my top 52, I agree.  So he is a depth loss who might still make it but is not, at this point, a huge loss.  Still, since he was taken in the minor league portion of the draft, he is not coming back to the Indians.

Nick Maronde, LHP

The same logic of not even being one of the top 30 Rule 5 eligible prospects in the Indians organization applies here, too.  Maronde was once a top prospect for the Angels but has not produced for the Indians and is not much of a loss at this point.  He was lost in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft so he isn't coming back.

Grant Sides, RHP

Like Frank, he is the classic Indians later round pick and, like Frank, obviously not highly thought of as he wasn't protected on the AAA reserve list.   A college pitcher they turned into a pro reliever.   He is currently 27 years old and didn't make my top 52.  While he still might make the majors I don't see him having that much impact.  He was lost in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 so he isn't coming back.
 
Jon Fitzsimmons, RHP

A guy the Indians picked up this past summer, he hadn't pitched since 2014 when the Royals released him.  This is an interesting draft pick as, while he won't be coming back to the Indians as he was selected in the minor league Rule 5, he is also one of the more unlikely selections as a 25 year old who has only 10 games at low A ball.

Sunday, December 4, 2016

Musings for a Sunday night in early December

Mike Napoli or no Mike Napoli.   Let's be honest.  Cleveland, despite it's great season, is where guys go to re-start their careers on one-year deals so they can, the next year, go elsewhere and cash in on the season they had in Cleveland.  Why, because there will always be some rich team who can overpay a guy like Napoli for multiple years, have him fall on his face, and it still not kill their budget for years to come...because they can afford to have bigger budgets!

The only thing I will say in Napoli's defense is that if he will accept a one-year deal I would take him for even $10 million in that year.   Why?  I think his intangibles in 'the room' are knowns to Francona and the Indians whereas those of anyone else (including Encarnacion and Fowler) are suspect if you put them in the position Napoli was in last year.  We are in our 'window' now and he will, for next year, likely help keep us there  But for more than one year?  Never.  Yeah, it may kill our playoff chances next year but next year in the playoffs and years after that, signing Napoli might significantly hurt our chances of winning long term.

HOFers...or not.  In the mid- to late-90s I dreamed on the prospect of having multiple Indians from that era make the Hall of Fame.   A couple of decades later I am still waiting.  Now Albert Belle is on a separate ballot.  It reminds me of what could have been:

Carlos Baerga, Julie Franco, Albert Belle , Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Omar Vizquel, even Robbie Alomar and maybe Sandy Alomar looked like potential HOFers.  Now, due to injuries, steroids, following the money overseas and precipitous declines ability, it looks like only Thome and Vizquel have a shot at the HOF with Belle having a slight shot.   And there is no guarantee if they do make it that they will go in as Indians since they did leave Cleveland, many significantly before their careers ended.

Why am I mentioning this?  Because the Indians didn't do enough (which means they should have done it no matter what the cost) to keep their HOFers here.   Yeah, we would have been burned, HOF-wise, on Ramirez, Robbie Alomar and Baerga but for all the other guys, they are likely or were likely, given difference circumstances of going in the HOF.

Looking at the current roster only Francisco Lindor looks like a likely HOFer.   In the next year or two we need to give him a lifetime contract.  Yeah, at the end of it we will be rueing the day we gave him that deal...until he goes into the HOF as an Indian.

None of the above was worth the money they made when they left the Indians.  Yet, had we had them here, we would be looking at a lot of HOF guys over the next few years.    And, living in St. Louis, the value of those statues outside the stadium is invaluable to keep the tradition alive.

Ohio  State Football - OK, this is a baseball blog.   But in all the controversy or perceived controversy about the final 4 this year, there is one thing that I see noticeably missing.   People are ticked about Washington's non-conference schedule but they don't seem to talk about Ohio State's luck.   Realistically OSU could be sitting at 8-4 now and looking at a matchup in a minor bowl game.   Putting Clemson ahead of them was a symbolic thing to do.   I think they should have been ranked 4th with Washington 3rd.  I just don't think they showed enough to be in the top 3 and only because of the closeness of some of the major conference championship games do I even think OSU deserves to be in the final 4.  People who make a big deal about Washington's weak non-conference schedule and don't ding the Buckeyes for their multiple almost losses are, in my opinion, missing the real issue:  You have to dominate to make the final 4.   A win is not a win when you are talking about the football playoffs.   And Ohio State's close wins are just as suspect, if not more, than Washington's weak non-conference schedule.   And you are getting that opinion from a lifelong Buckeye fan an Buckeye alum (sort of).