Post 40 man roster analysis

First, if anyone is reading this raise your hand.

OK.  Let's continue.

The obvious Indians prospects to be added to the 40 man roster were added.  I haven't found an analysis and don't have time to do one but let's postulate that the Indians were not the worst or not the best at protecting prospects from the Rule 5.  

The Indians left a lot of dead weight on their 40-man roster.   I used to get bent out of shape about this but many times those guys are just placeholders in case of a free agent signing or a trade where more guys come back then go out.   So, this is a great wait and see time.

Looking at the Nick Goody DFA, you likely have to disconnect the dead weight from what happened to Goody.   Letting Goody go meant that keeping him as a placeholder didn't make sense to the Indians and, rather, was something else.   We will see what his DFA meant as time goes on.

I have to be honest, the prospects who DIDN'T get protected are not that great of prospects.   The best of the bunch, Ka'ai Tom, is, at this point, a one year wonder.   The rest of the guys are either too early in their career or are not high draft picks or guys with big tools.   I can't be too mad at the Indians as they generally know what they are doing in these situations.

That DOES NOT mean the unprotected guys will still be with the Indians after the Rule 5 draft.   Anyone who says they really can predict who will be picked in the Rule 5 is likely blowing smoke up your butt.   No one really knows who will be drafted.   If someone asked me to guess, I guess the Indians will lose 1 player in the major league portion of the Rule 5 draft and there will be at least one surprise loss in the AAA phase.   That surprise, of course, would be that whoever we lost was not able to be protected on the 38-man Columbus reserve list.

I will end this post by talking about Mark Mathias.   Very interesting trade as one would guess the Indians suspected they would lose him in the Rule 5 and so got a rookie league catching prospect as a consolation prize instead of just the $100,000 if some team drafted Mathias.   The reason it is interesting is this sort of trade is not normal in my experience at this time of year. My only thought here is that the Brewers told the Indians they were going to draft Mathias but that it would be to the Indians advantage to trade him now as compared to maybe getting only cash if Mathias was drafted.   Given that I rated Mathias and Tom roughly the same in terms of susceptibility to being drafted, it will be interesting to see if Tom is drafted.

Time will tell and we should get a much better look about the time spring training starts.

It's 40 man roster AND AAA Reserve list day. What do we do?

OK, let's do this quickly.  

.Here is our goal today: create a roster that has 39 players on it.   That way we have one player spot open if we want to dip our toe into the Rule 5 ML draft coming up next month

Let's talk about the prospects we want to protect

Daniel Johnson - Definitely will protect

Triston McKenzie - Definitely protect.   This is ESPECIALLY because he was injured all last year.   Being injured would allow a team to stash him probably for the whole year as he 'recovered'.  

Scott Moss -  Definitely protect.   He has potential and is ML ready and cheap in case we need a starter this coming year.   So, he is good for the present AND the future.  

Oscar Gonzalez - Tough call - So, you have a 21 year old Latin outfielder who had a great year at Lynchburg.   Do you protect him?  The last time the Indians were in this situation, 2016, they did not protect that guy, who was Anthony Santander.   It took a while because Santander was injured and missed almost all of 2017 which played into Baltimore's hand as they stashed him on the DL almost all year and activated him in September when the rosters expanded.  They then carried him over the winter and kept him on the 25 man roster in 2018 until he acquired the appropriate ML time that allowed the Orioles to send him to the minors without exposing him to waivers or returning him to the Indians.  In 2019 Santander hit 20 HRs in 380 ABs for the Orioles while hitting .261.   It did take 3 years before Santander was even a functional MLer, not even a full-time starter yet.   If the Indians protect him and he has a hiccup in his development they might burn all their options on him before he makes it to the majors.  

Ka'ai Tom - Tough call - Here is a guy who was mediocre most of his professional career and broke out last year.   He is a little guy and, to me, does not stand out compared to all the other outfielders we have on the ML roster.   This is a player development issue for the Indians.   Does Tom project to be significantly better than anyone currently on our ML outfield roster and, if he does, will he get here quickly and can we live without an outfielder currently on the roster until Tom is ready?

Shoa-Ching Chiang - Don't protect - Unless a team thinks they can make him into a reliever I don't see him having the stuff or peripherals to be taken by another team.  There is no upside to him, just present, albeit limited value.

Felix Fermin - Don't protect - His upside is limited and he is too far from the majors.

Dalbert Siri - Tough call - Only protect if we have dead wood on our ML pitching roster and we think Siri has more potential than those guys.

Argenis Angulo - Don't protect.   I just don't see the present stuff in him that would get him selected.

Cam Hill -  Tough call - See Siri above for situation in which he would be protected.

Juan Hillman - Tough call - His performance has been mediocre but he is young and has upside.   I could easily see a team taking him and stashing him at the end of their bullpen until he acquires his 90 days of ML service that would allow the drafting team to keep him and send him to the minors. 

Luis Oviedo - Tough call.   Like Mejia last year he has intriguing enough stuff that some team might think they could use him as a reliever to get him his 90 day service time.  Still, he is a long way off as he had a mediocre season at Lake County 

OK, so we need to find room for 3 players (Johnson, McKenzie and Moss) and explore the available options to remove dead wood from the roster to add other players (Gonzalez, Tom, Siri and Hill)

So, here we go.   Out current 40 man roster stands at 38.   So we already have the spot for one prospect.   Let's look at the rest of the roster and see who we can dump:

Pitchers on the bubble: Maton, Hoyt, Mejia, Wood.  I think Hentges and Rodriguez are safe as are all the other 14 pitchers currently on the 40 man roster

Catchers - I think all three of Haase, Plawicki and Perez are safe as I think Haase has one option left.

Infielders on the bubble: Arroyo, Freeman, Valazquez and Chang.   I think you keep only 3 of these guys and maybe 2.   If it is 2 you keep Chang and Freeman.  If it is 3 you add Arroyo.

Outfielders on the bubble:  Greg Allen 

Here is what I think we should do:

Maton - get rid of him and add Moss to the roster

Hoyt - Get rid of him and add Hillman to the roster

Allen - get rid of him and add Johnson to the roster

Wood - get rid of him and add Gonzalez to the roster

Mejia - get rid of him and add Hill to the roster

Valazquez - Get rid of him and add Tom to the roster

I see Arroyo having more current and potential value compared to Siri.   

Now, when I say 'get rid of' I mean designate for assignment.  You might lose all those guys above if we DFA them but, frankly, I don't them being above replacement value.  Plus, we can stash them on the Columbus reserve list if they clear waivers.   In that case they would only be available for the Major League portion of the Rule 5 draft.   We also have room to stash Brady Aiken there as Fermin and Chiang.    It's not like we have a lot of guys who are eligible for the Rule 5 who we would NOT be able to protect on the Columbus roster.  

Here are the guys I think you protect at Columbus: Oviedo, Siri, Allen, Angulo, Hoyt, Mejia, Chiang, Fermin, Aiken, Jared Robinson, Tanner Tully, Michael Peoples, Moroff, Krauth, Mathias, Papi, Trenton Brooks, Connor Marabell, Gavin Collins, Mitch Longo, Francisco Perez, Kaminsky, Krieger, Lien Chen-Chu, Justin Garza, Henry Martinez.  Plus, if they clear waivers you can always add Hoyt, Maton Wood, and Valazquez back.

So that is 30 and represents most of the guys who I think might be Rule 5 targets.   That still gives the Indians room to add other guys who they think might be vulnerable to the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft where, if you lose a guy, you can't get him back.

Non-baseball, Browns post

I am a baseball fan first and foremost but as a Clevelander I follow the Browns and Cavs, too.

Tonight I am ashamed to say that I am a fan of the Cleveland Browns.