DFAing Haase and other topics

It's past midnight and Dec. 30th and Francisco Lindor is still a Cleveland Indian.  On a northern Ohio sports weekend like we just had, any non-negative news is good news!

A blip on the bad weekend news is that the Indians DFA'd Eric Haase to make room for Cesar Hernandez.   I am sure that there is an analytics guy or team of analytics guys somewhere who are sure this was the best move the Indians could have made.  Not sure if Haase is out of options but, even if he is, this is still not a good move.

•  We have 9 outfielders on our roster.   We may keep 4 or 5.  One, Greg Allen, has become about 4th on the list of CFers, utility outfielders.
•  We have 3 utility infielders.   We probably will keep 1 and be able to send one other to AAA.
•  We have 12 or 15 relievers, depending on how you count Plutko and whether you count Hentges and Mejia of which two of them, Maton and Hoyt, appear to be AAAA lifers.  And that's without the typical January and February minor league free agent reliever signings.

However, at this point, we had only 3 catchers on the roster and exactly zero catching prospects in our system above low class A.   That is ZERO.   

Remember that even if we made a deal with Haase to keep him if he clears waivers he would still need to clear waivers for us to keep him.  Not likely with the perennial state of catching in baseball but I am sure those analytics guys are somewhere smiling, saying it doesn't matter if we don't keep Haase because he is not above replacement level.  I don't buy that because I value prospects and guys brought up in an organization more than the AAAA flavor of the month.  

There is no way that Haase was the fluffiest player on the 40 man, not by a long shot.   But he did have one distinction.   On the roster with 9 outfielders and 15 potential relievers, and 3 utility infielders, Haase was the only guy on the roster who was clearly the "next man up" at his position going into spring training. Doesn't matter that his position was backup to the backup catcher,

there had to be a better guy to DFA.  Had to be.  The roster breakdown shows this.

But, somewhere, analytics guys are giving each other high 5s while watching reruns of Big Bang Theory.   Remember, the word 'analytics' starts with "anal".   Never has that been more clear than this off-season, at least for the Indians in the makeup of the bottom of their 40-man roster.

Time for a football interlude

OK, this is an Indians blog but once in a while we digress into other topics.   Today it is Ohio State football.

Three years ago Ohio State lost to Clemson 31-0.   Ohio State never adjusted to what Clemson was doing against them.   Basically, they could never get anything going.

But this is not that coaching staff.   Unlike essentially every year under Urban Meyer, this coaching staff has made in-game adjustments that have turned the tide in games that we close early.   I love what Urban Meyer did at Ohio State but, in my opinion, the man had an ego that hurt him in these situations.  Apparently Ryan Day's staff doesn't suffer from that from that issue.

That being said, here is what I think needs to happen in this game.   Note that these comments are just from a nervous fan who is just talking to himself, in public, prior to this game.   I am not a football expert by any means.   But, that notwithstanding, here goes:

1. Ohio State needs to move Chase Young around more than it has this year.   Essentially every play.   They have to give Clemson's offense different looks with Young.   He will always have a target on his chest but if the Buckeyes create enough confusion he should get a sack or two and other guys should be free for more sacks.

2. The Buckeyes have to trust their corners in man coverage and blitz more from the safety spot.  Yes this is risky but we have to make Trevor Lawrence uncomfortable.   His recent success is due to his comfort that he is going to have time and not get hit or hurried.

3. We need to adjust our offense to what we have.   We don't want Fields to have to make intricate reads against disguised defenses and hold the ball for a long time as it increases the chance he will get hit and that he will make a bad read or force something.   One way to avoid that is a more Baker Mayfield-like passing game.  Quick throws to slanting receivers and backs isolated against linebackers. There is some question about whether the Buckeye receivers can gain separation from the Clemson cornerbacks.   If we establish the quick passing game that could allow us to gain that separation late in the first half and, occasionally, in the second half.  As funny as it sounds, a quick passing game should open up the run for Fields, too.   If everyone is keyed on the pass he should get a couple of steps before the defense readjusts.

4. If what I think about the coaching staff is accurate we just need to make sure that the game is close at halftime.  I think our coaching staff can adjust better than any coaching staff in the country and I am betting on them to win the second half pretty substantially.

If all these come to pass here is my prediction:

Halftime score: Clemson 21 Ohio State 17

Second half scoring:  Ohio State 21 Clemson 13

Final score: Ohio State 38 Clemson 34

Impact of potential trades

Looking at it logically, I don't see the Indians trading Lindor or Clevinger.  However, if they did trade one of them, let's look at the impact:

The Indians will be competing against the Twins and White Sox for the division this year and maybe next.   Their 'window' is still open.   To keep that window open they, minimally need to keep the lineup and rotation they have now.  Minimally.  Their lineup is not that strong.   Their rotation is not that strong.   Their bullpen is not that certain in terms of performance.  So, even with ALL of the players they have now, they will need some breaks to even make it to the playoffs.

We need to improve to make the playoffs unless a miracle happens.  Without going into details, it doesn't appear any team will trade us players that will allow us to replace Lindor's production while making our team better long term.   For example, a trade to the Dodgers of both of these guys together would have to net Lux, May, Verdugo and Seager to make it worthwhile.  Otherwise, Otherwise, we might as well do a full rebuild.

From what I have seen there isn't a team who has or would be willing to trade as much of their immediate future to help us win this year and be set to keep this window open for another 4-5 years.

40 man roster fluff

As we are in the season of giving (we gave away Corey Kluber) we have to consider the possibility of getting multiple players back in trades, all or most of whom would have to be placed on the 40 man roster.   So let's take a look:

Pitchers

We have 21 pitchers on the roster.  20-22 seems to be common with teams so the number seems right)  Here are the breakdowns:

Major league starters: 7 (Carrasco, Clevinger, Bieber, Civale, Plesac, Plutko, Rodriguez)
Minor league starters: 4  (McKenzie, Moss (L), Allen (L), Hentges(L))
Major league relievers: 9 (Clase, Hand (L), Cimber, Karinchak, Hoyt, Maton, Perez (L), Wittgren, Wood)
Minor league relievers: 1 (Mejia)

Analysis: We are a little heavy on major league right-handed relievers.   At this point I consider Maton just a placeholder and would think the same thing about Hoyt if we hadn't brought him back once this off-season.  If we add a quality reliever or two then I think Hoyt and Wood are at risk.   Of course, this analysis is made very cloudy when you consider that one of the least likely guys to get cut, Nick Goody, has already been cut.  So, really, who knows what these analytics and financial people think as far as who is most expendable.  As far as starters I think we have exactly the right numbers (majors and minors combined) with the possibility of one of the lefties making the new 26-man roster as a long reliever.  Mejia is a guy who can stay on the roster now but, if he stinks in the minors and a roster spot is necessary during the year for a guy like Nick Sandlin, then removing Mejia becomes an easy decision.

Catchers: 3 (Haase, Perez, Leon)

Analysis:  This is where you want to be with three catchers who can play in the majors, the least of the three being an older prospect who still has some upside.   You carry two catchers and keep Haase at AAA in case of injury.

Infielders: 8: This includes Hernandez who isn't rostered yet.  

Firstbasemen: 2 (Santana, Bradley)
Starting infielders: 3 (Lindor, Ramirez, Hernandez)
Utility infielders: 3 (Arroyo, Velazquez and Chang)

Analysis: The starting infielders are solid and Bradley is a good prospect to be stashed at AAA in case of emergency.   Bauers is the emergency backup at first base, too, so we are good there.   Where we are way heavy is utility infielder.   Only one of these 3 should make the team.   My guess is that this would be Arroyo with Velazquez only being on the roster as protection in case Arroyo is not ready by opening day.    Chang is the AAA backup.   Perfect.

Outfielders:  9

Analysis:  We all know this is a disaster.  Even if you count Reyes as the DH and Bauers as the utility firstbaseman/corner outfielder you still have 7 outfielders.    If you count on Mercado in CF and the two headed corner outfielder (Luplow/Naquin) you still have 4 outfielders.   As Deshields is the vetran he makes the team.  That leaves Zimmer, Johnson and Allen.   Assuming Zimmer starts the year in the minors to continue his rehab, there is no way that Allen or Johnson make this team out of spring training.  If we get a quality corner outfielder somehow then we are looking at losing Bauers or Deshields or Naquin.   None of this is a problem for me as, except for Mercado, Luplow and Johnson (only because his development ceiling is still unclear), I don't really see Zimmer, Naquin, Allen, De Shields and Bauers having any more than replacement level value.


Overall summary:  We have replacement level players or prospects with minor league options in the major league bullpen, at utility infielder and in the outfield.  Just the major league replacement level players on the current 40 man roster represent at least 1/4 of that roster!  Lots of depth but not a lot of quality beyond the starters.    This makes 2020 a year in which we could easily fall way behind early like we did in 2019 and not have enough steam to catch up at the end, just like in 2019.  

Lindor trade headliners - let's take a look

Let's start off by saying this:

Any team that trades for Francisco Lindor can:

a. hold on to him and get two years of one of the best players in the game AND a draft choice when he walks as he will be the easiest qualifying offer decision in the history of baseball.

or

b. flip him at some point between now and July 31st of 2021 to get value back for him that will probably be worth more than that draft choice.

So, with that backdrop, let's look at some of the rumored headliners in the rumored deals to get Lindor.  These are all rumors but they all make sense at some level:

Reds - Nick Senzel - His numbers, albeit tempered by injury, last year were not great.   He has almost one year of service time and is 24 years old.   Given his production and the fact that he is not a stellar or even average defender as an infielder, there would have to be more coming back, at least another top 10 prospect,  The Reds have two pitching prospects in Tony Santillan and Vladimir Gutierrez, both of whom sucked this year.    In my opinion it would take one or both of them and Senzel to get this deal done as Senzel, himself, doesn't look like enough.    Hey, I know Reds' fans will laugh at this but when you have your #4 prospect being a pitcher with an ERA of over 6 in AAA, it is not a strong farm system.   To get Santillan and Gutierrez to reach their potential it will take a big gamble and a lot of work by the Indians.   But that is what a prospect trade is, right?  The team trading the veteran is trading for the future and, to get good return, has to generally take some risk.   Taking Senzel, Santillan and Gutierrez is taking risk, the latter two being significant risk, IMHO.

Mets - I don't put much stock in Mets rumors but the guy the Indians apparently want to headline the deal is Jeff McNeil, who played LF, RF, 2B and 3B last year in his first full season with the Mets and made the NL all-star team.   McNeil is a nice player but c'mon.  He was a 12th round pick out of Long Beach St..   In 2018 he had his best minor league season, playing at AA as a 26 year old.   He will begin 2020 as a 28 year old.    He set career highs last year in runs, doubles and HRs while playing his first full season in the majors.   Yes, that is career highs counting his college and minor league teams.  So, all-star team aside, there is a decent chance that his power numbers are an aberration.  Without that, looking at his poor walk rate, and he is no better than a combination of Luplow and whatever LH outfielder you want to plug in.  Yeah, I ask for McNeil in any trade for Lindor but he is not the headliner.  Maybe a co-headliner with the other guy being Andres Gimenez (AA SS) if we get Stephen Villines (RP AAA), too.

Dodgers - Gavin Lux - This is the first headliner who is a true headliner.   Look, the Dodgers are trying to get to the WS and win it.   Two years of Lindor gets that done.    The Indians get Lux, Joc Pederson and  relief prospect Josh Sborz and throw the recently acquired DeShields back to the Dodgers.  While I would love Lux and May, I don't think that is ever going to happen.   So we need Lux and whoever else is going to help this team.   I think Pederson and Sborz have that chance.

Yankees - Miguel Andujar - While I like this guy my trade is a straight up one-4-one with the Indians trading Lindor and getting back Gleyber Torres.   Sorry, Yankees, we got to get a SS back who can play.   Torres is very good but Lindor is Lindor.   You guys have deep pockets.   Take Lindor and sign him to a long term contract.    Torres ain't taking you to the promised land by himself.   Lindor can.

Time for some serrious discussion

First,

I applaud Cleveland's management and player development staffs.   They have done more with less and produced winning baseball in Cleveland for an extended period of time.   In the dark ages of Cleveland baseball that I remember clearly, the management and player development staffs had the same opportunity to produce winning teams and didn't.   Anyone who says that this is not true really doesn't remember those times.

While I have criticized the management teams for moves and non-moves in the past, the truth is that I nor any of the bloggers out there really understand the constraints that are placed on Cleveland's management team.    

With that acknowledgement here are the realities as I see them:

•  It now is certain to me that ownership is screwing management.  That shouldn't come as a surprise as the fans have screwed ownership by not showing up in great enough numbers and, as we all know, dung flows downhill.  So fans, you get what you failed to pay for every time a salary dump occurs.
•  The key to me on the future of this franchise is NOT whether they trade Francisco Lindor but WHAT they get back for him when he is traded.  If we are scratching our head about the return it likely means that we took the best offer even if it was substandard to what Lindor is worth.  This will be a bad signal for the future of winning baseball in Cleveland.   Not that trading your stars is wrong on a small market team but trading them for too little value means you are screwing your franchise both short- and long-term.  

You see, if you trade your star players you are in rebuilding mode and in rebuilding mode you have to get back young talent equal to or better than the ML talent you are trading away.

Those are the simple truths.   We failed to trade Kluber and Bauer last winter because we couldn't get enough for them.   That standard is set.   By those rules we should get a lot for Lindor and, if we don't, it means the rules have changed and saving money has become the main goal of the Cleveland Indians.   Not rebuilding, not rebuilding and trying to win at the same time nor trying to win now.  

Just saving money.   

A couple of final thoughts:

•  If you are trying to rebuild you shouldn't be trading international slot money or competitive balance draft picks, right?   The Indians did both of those things last winter. 
•  If you are rebuilding every trade should involve trading away veterans to get quality prospects back, right?  You shouldn't be taking salary dumps in return for your better players.  
•  If you are trying to win now you should take some of the Kluber savings and sign a decent secondbaseman or thirdbaseman AND you shouldn't trade Lindor unless you get a top prospect back.
•  Regarding a Lindor trade, the minimum I accept for Lindor is Gavin Lux, Joc Pederson and a low minors quality pitching prospect.  I would even throw in one of our 9 outfielders into the mix to get that done.   You have to get a young middle infielder back for Lindor as we don't really have any in the minors who will help anywhere in the future.  We are still taking the gamble that Lux will not be a defensive liability or a Kipnis-like player.   In a trade for Lindor we can't get a rookie Kipnis back.   So we are taking the gamble that Lux reaches his expectation.   Other teams are only taking the risk that Lindor might get hurt.

So stay tuned Cleveland fans.   What happens between now and spring training will determine whether ownership is taking us back to the dark ages of Cleveland baseball.   If they do, we only have ourselves to blame because we, as fans, greased the skids by not showing up to games.

Levity moment

One report quipped that our new reliever’s name is pronounced “Class A”.   Priceless!

Kluber trade analysis

Kluber for Texas’ #30 prospect ands .242 hitting outfielder. in DeShieldswho is no better than what we have now!?!?!  This is a salary dump.  I can tell where the Lindor trade is going:  No Lux and we get May and they dump Peterson on us.

Winter meetings, the new rules and some non-baseball stuff

The winter meetings have started and here are some thoughts:

1. I hate the new roster rules.   While I am sure minor baseball players would love to make money and have a long career in the majors, a lot of these kids started off by just wanting to make it to the majors.    September is a great chance to get your feet wet in the majors and, for a good number of players, it may represent the only time they play in the majors.   Major league teams also occasionally give promotions to career minor leaguers who have been good organizational soldiers but have not gotten to spend much, if any, time in the big leagues.  The new rule changes all that.    The Indians signed catcher Beau Taylor to a minor league deal last week.   His first exposure to the majors was as a September callup after 8 years in the minors.   He was 28 years old.   He would likely not have gotten called up that year had the current rules been in effect.  This rule sucks.   It saves teams money, that is all.    It kills the little guy in this business who may never be talented enough to stick in the majors but at least deserves that cup of coffee.

2. Have I mentioned that the Indians should sign Lindor to a 10 year deal that he can opt out of after 4 years?  His salaries would be:

2020 - $18 million
2021 - $20 million
2022 - $22 million
2023 - $25 million (opt out if he wants to after this season)
2024 - $28 million
2025 - $29 million
2026 - $30 million
2027 - $30 million
2028 - $30 million
2029 - $30 million
2030 - $30 million (club option or $1 million buyout)
2031 - $30 million (club option or $1 million buyout)

That averages out to $26.4 million a year guaranteed.  We don't do a non-trade clause and the contract, including club options, follows him if we do trade him.

3. This will be the most interesting Rule 5 draft in years, including for the Indians.   You heard it here first.

4. Moving to football, the playoff committee got it right.   If Justin Fields was in perfect health then I think Ohio State deserved the #1 seed.   But he isn't and so there are, therefore, questions about the competitiveness of the Buckeyes against the best competition.    While we would all like to play the weakest competition until the finals in any sport we are involved in, if Ohio State deserves the national championship, going through Clemson and the LSU-Oklahoma winner would certainly prove that.

5. Ohio State Men's Basketball - I have seen them play almost every game this year and, frankly, I am amazed.  They are so much better than the sum of their parts and, frankly, look like they are getting better and better every week.   Yeah, the stars aligned against North Carolina and Penn State but they DEMOLISHED those two teams when they weren't supposed to.   Aside from getting cocky, bored, or just losing motivation, if their goal is and they are dedicated to making it to the final 4, for the first time in my life I can say that is a very likely outcome.

4. Ohio State Women's Basketball - They are not hitting on all cylinders yet but their victory over Louisville shows that the talent is there.   You just don't beat a highly ranked team like that if you don't have talent.