The umpteenth don't trade Lindor post

 It really makes me roll my eyes when I hear a local writer (or two...or more) spout that Lindor will be traded this winter.

It all makes too much sense to me.

Now, if they said "Expect, if the Tribe get the offer they want, that they will trade Lindor this winter"

But what they are saying, in essence, is "Expect the Tribe to take the best offer for Lindor, irrespective of whether it is a good offer, just to save money or get stuck paying Lindor's salary next season."

You see, when you set low expectations you are bound to meet them.

Once Lindor is traded expect those same writers to say, in order:

• The Tribe really worked the trade market but this was the best they could get for Lindor
• With the season he had last year, his value was really down and so the FO did the best they could in a bad situation.
• What do you think we would have gotten for him if we waited until August?  Probably less than what we got now.
• Stay used to it, fans.   It's what happens when Tribe superstars get close to free agency

Expect maybe a top 10 prospect from some other organization (maybe the 7th best prospect or so), an overpaid veteran to balance out his salary, a low A fireballer who barely makes his team's top 20 prospects and another minor leaguer who is a college player with low upside but gaudy stats in the low minors who everyone knows is really not a prospect (thus not being a top prospect in the organization).

Look what we got for Bauer: Reyes, Logan Allen and Scott Moss.   Despite what people may say about Allen and Moss, it is more than likely that neither of them ever helps the Indians.  So maybe we got Reyes.

Look what we got for Clevinger.   Unless the Tribe's pitching magicians can get more out of Quantrill than what I think is there, he is a 5th starter, setup guy as his upside.   Naylor may or may not be anything.  Look at Luplow in his career.   Turn him around at the plate and that is likely to be Naylor.  Plus the minor leaguers are really questionable in my opinion.   

Now imagine what we get for a year of Lindor?  I think a year of Lindor and a compensation round pick is better than what this FO can do in a trade.  So the best trade is NO trade

Fans get mad, Dolan saves money, FO spins the guys we got back as really good additions to the organization.  Same old, same old.

So don't trade the guy because what you will get back is less than Lindor's one year value to this team and that compensation draft pick when he leaves.

That's the thing, right.  Make the best trade, even and ESPECIALLY if it is no trade.

So, as a counterpoint, let's change that narrative.

The Indians are a playoff contender with Lindor next year.   Without him and with the loss of Santana and maybe Hand, they are NOT a contender.  Maybe barely a .500 team or (gasp!) with an injury or two a below .500 team.  That "Let's go for mediocrity" narrative doesn't play well if you can't be above .500, does it?  I mean, even this year if we played a full schedule there is a better than average chance we would have been a below .500 team.

Plus, assuming fans are allowed to attend games next year, Lindor puts butts in the seats more than any other player not named Beiber.

Plus part deux, Lindor HAS to have a better season next year as he approaches free agency.   

So we keep the face of the franchise for another year.  Whether he likes it here or not, he is contractually obligated to play for the Tribe.   If he sucks he hurts his free agent value next winter.

Plus we are a little more competitive and all of us go to our graves knowing we got to see Lindor for as long (or almost as long if he is traded in August) as we could have, being fans of the Cleveland Tribe.

What Now?

 OK, we've become the Minnesota Twins South.  

Observations about the season and the series:

1. Sandy Alomar is not that good a manager.   Not that he is bad but he is just not playoff ready...yet.  Maybe someday but not yet.   The only really smart move he made was pinchhitting Luplow for Naylor and, fortunately it worked.   Other than that, he managed like a second division manager.   Karinchak, as much as I love his stuff, was the WRONG guy in that situation.   Not that we had anyone better, but he was just not suited in any way to come in at that point.  Carrasco should have been allowed to see if he could have cleaned up his mess.  Not hindsight, I was screaming this into my computer at the time.

2. Lindor, Santana??? What can you say?  Their seasons are puzzling (more later on this)

3. Why 3 catchers on the roster?   There is never any reason for that when none of them can hit. 

4.  Did we not have Domingo Santana?  If we did, he should have been on the roster for that last out situation in the 9th.   It was almost comical and embarassing that we sent Austin I-can't-outhit-a-pitcher Hedges for that final at bat.  Bad roster building if Hedges is EVER the best hitter you can send to the plate unless your bench is empty...and then I let a pitcher hit.

5. You can easily make a case that Bieber was not the same pitcher after his 118 pitch outing.   The same can be said for Civale after his complete game.

If either of them end up hurt or pitching bad next year someone should get fired.

6. On a first division team with reasonable talent, Delino DeShields Jr. would be on a second division team (their is a Yogi Berra-ism in there somewhere).  He was pathetic.   It looked like after he got hurt he was scared of the wall.   I mean, he played worse than an a AA centerfielder.   He was truly bad and his arm was, at the end of the season, a real rag arm.  The only reason he was even in the lineup is that he actually could hit over .200 AND because of his undeserved defensive reputation.

6. I have said this before but I will end this section with this: This is the best you will ever get from the Indians until they start spending in free agency or making smart trade deadline deals.  The result was due to us not having enough hitting or solid bullpen arms.   Above mediocrity level but totally frustrating.   

What SHOULD lie ahead (and what will)

Francisco Lindor - What should happen: Because he had such a mediocre season, we should keep him this winter.   Look, he lost a LOT of his tradeability when he tanked it the way he did this year, especially the tank (not his first time) in the playoffs.  He has one year left on his contract, had a sucky season with some really questionable play and mental decisions.   His value is down which would make him a real bargain in a trade...and meaning the Indians won't get good value for him.   The pro-FO people will say, after a return that makes the Clevinger trade look like a gold mine, "What did you expect to get for him?" So here is the case for keeping him.   His value is down.   His value is down.  And, of course, his value is down.  Wacky baserunning, terrible hitting with runners on base and some questionable defensive plays really hurt...wait for it...his value.

A whole season of Lindor and a sandwich draft pick is better than ANY return we will get for him after this tanked 2020 season and with our FO, who will be under pressure to dump him.   I think every season ticket holder should have the option of getting their money immediately refunded if the Indians trade Lindor this winter or next season.   Really, make it part of the season ticket contract...now.

What SHOULD happen:  We keep Lindor and make him play out his last year giving everything he has for US rather than for someone else.   We won't get good value for him.  Antonneti has not shown he can get good value in the trade with his highwater mark being the questionable Clevinger trade.

What will happen: The FO, under pressure from the owner, will dump Lindor to the highest lowball bidder and we will make comments about how some third rate prospect is a hidden gem.

Carlos Santana - Unfortunately he played himself off this team.   The only way he comes back is if he plays for a $6 million one year deal.

What should happen: We let him go to FA and offer him a $6 million deal and he takes it because he is so embarassed at this pathetic performance this year.

What will happen: He will have a bounceback year next year on a one year deal...for someone else.

Roberto Perez - You think deciding to keep Lindor is our biggest decision?   Think again.   Perez knows these pitchers but he has been hurt a lot and it is not clear if he can hit any more.

What should happen - We pick up his option

What will happen - We will let him go and keep Sandy Leon and Austin Hedges just to save $5 million.

Winter trades/FA signings - So what will we do this winter?

We need players and teams will not be wanting to spend this winter after their financial losses.  Teams may also be trying to dump their overpriced, underperforming players.

What we should do: Sign a couple of FA OF bats and a couple of relievers.  

What we will do: Nothing positive.   

What will happen this winter: We will get worse.   We will play over .500 ball, just barely, and do nothing at the deadline and miss the playoffs by a lot.

Just sayin!