Two weeks of Arizona Fall League Left - Where are we?

 Kyle Manzardo

The Good:  He has hit 5 HRs and, until Saturday, he was tied for the league lead and has hit a LOT of tape measure HRs with excellent exit velocity.

The Better: He leads the AFL in XBH and his OPS still over .900

The Bad: He only has 6 BB and 19 K in 67 ABs against AFL pitching (about AA level).  That doesn't look like a guy who will be ready for the MLs next spring training.

Chase DeLauter

The Good: He has 6 Ks (in 63 ABs) and 6 XBHs in the AFL.  It is always good to have as many XBH as Ks, no matter what the level.  He also leads the league in SFs with 6 (the next closest player has 4).

The Better: He leads the league in RBIs by 5, producing 23 RBIs in 17 games

The Bad: That odd swing still has people debating and clearly, as this is AA-level pitching, any flaws in his swing will not be exposed by these pitchers in the desert in October.

Ryan Webb

The Good: He has now passed 100 IP on the year counting Lake County and his AFL numbers.  That bodes well for him pitching a full season next year getting his numbers up closer to 120-130 IP in 2024 without vastly going beyond his 2023 IP.  To me this means if his stuff holds and he stays healthy he even has a shot to pitch effectively in Cleveland at some point next year without being gassed when he finally makes it there.  He has also had moments of greatness like in his first start when the leadoff hitter got a triple and he struck out the 2-4 hitters, stranding that guy on 3rd as well as striking out 9 in 4.1 IP in his second start.  Even in his 3rd start, all against Mesa, they rocked him for 5 ER and 3 HRs he still struck out 7.  His overall numbers looked a lot like his college junior year.

The Better:  As of this point he still leads the AFL in strikeouts AND, by a large margin, in Ks per 9 IP from guys with more than 10 IP.  Now that may change depending on how many more starts Webb makes and how he does and how Davis Daniel, Ricky Tiedeman and DJ Herz finish.  What can't be taken away if Webb ends the season healthy is that this is an impressive performance from a guy still in A+ ball and it likely isn't a mirage in the desert as he came into this with a high pedigree albeit, due to injury, without a high prospect rating.  I watched his last start and while he gave up 5 hits almost all were weak contact and they were all singles.  For the most part, he was dealing.

The Bad: He has given up a lot of hard contact and has had periods of wildness.  His ERA, as a result, is not that good nor is his W/9 IP.  

Ross Carver

The Good: Carver is limiting hard contact.  He has not given up a HR in 12 innings and has a .205 BAA and a 1.17 WHIP

The Better: Carver is getting innings in and he is strking out guys with 14 Ks in 12 IP.  He is basically being a solid AFL borderline prospect who has not diminished his prospect status by his work in the desert.  As the goal was to get him extra innings that goal is being met and without sacrificing performance.  If he had pitched like this in AA he would have been a top 30 Guardans' prospect right now (and may sneak in to that over the winter depending on how things play out.

The Bad: He has not done much to distinguish himself from other pitching prospects in this league which puts him in the 3rd tier of prospects for the Guardians.  He needs to improve to be able to reach the upside I think he has.  That is, Aaron Civale upside.

Christian Cairo

The Good: He is hitting .313 with an OPS of .842 as a very patt-time player (32 ABs).  

The Better:  Cairo is getting improve against better competition and learning to play LF, both of which will improve his chances of getting to play a priority amount next year at AA, similar to what happened to Aaron Bracho this season.  If that happens, maybe the light will go on and he will become a perennial .300 hitter which will help Cairo reach this ML utility man upside (see Jose Fermin of the Cardinals).

The Bad: Still don't understand why an organizational soldier like Cairo is in the AFL.  He has shown nothing since his draft year that would indicate he has any chance to get to the majors.  He may have upside as a ML utility man but it would have been much better to send Tyler Freeeman to the AFL and let him get ABs and play some LF to improve his versatility for next year.

Bradley Hanner

The Good: He is getting innings in to work on stuff to develop as a middle reliever in the majors.  His 2023 regular season numbers do not show him to be a priority relief prospect in how he was used which, following on from being a minor league Rule 5 pick, would support that.  Looking more deeply into his regular season numbers and he held RHH to a .172 average and, overall, held hitters to a .634 OPS with a .297 SLG.  The fact that he was active the entire season and so didn't need the extra work the AFL provides shows me that maybe the Guardians wanted a longer look at Hanner to see if they wanted to add him to the Columbus reserve list or expose him to the minor league Rule 5 draft again.

The Better: He is performing at a good level and is not overwhelmed by the competition.  He has 11 Ks and only 2 BB in 7.1 innings, an improvement over his regular season average of about 4.5 BB/9 IP.  

The Bad: While Hanner has been effective in small sample size in the AFL it is not enough so far to move the needle and make him a priority relief prospect.  Right now he is still more of an organizational soldier who might repeat AA in 2024

Erik Sabrowski

The Good: Sabrowski put up a decent ERA in the AFL as he tried to get innings as he has missed a lot over the last two years.

The Better:  He accomplished that goal which puts him in a good position to get a minor league job in 2024 which is a good thing with the new pay structure for minor leaguers making it more competitive than before to get a minor league job as it is now a viable, year-round employment option.

The Bad: Sabrowski walked 8 in 11 innings so far and his peripherals say that he is a true organizational soldier at this point who would need a gimmick pitch or delivery to have a chance to get to the majors. 

2021 Draft - The Gift That Appears To Keep On Giving

 With early talk that the strength of the first-year player draft will be college pitching, time to look back on the Guardians' 2021 draft, a draft that has a chance to go down as the best in Guardians history.

As I said in my series on the draft last summer, it is not unreasonable to think that you can get one star, 2-3 other guys who will haver 3 year ML careers and maybe 2 guys (now that the draft is limited to 20 rounds) who have cups of coffee.  

The 2021 draft has a chance to be a lot more.  

Remember that the 2021 draft contained 18 college pitchers, 1 HS pitcher, 1 HS position player (Jake Foxx) and one college position player (Conner Koxx).  

To show you how early we are in the development process following this draft, the college draftees would not need to be put on the 40-man until after the 2024 season.  Normally guys may take 1-2 years of being on the 40 before they make the majors, meaning that the most likely draft time for these guys making the majors would have been projected  as 2025/2026.  If you expand on that line of thinking, it would mean that the college pitchers we drafted in 2021 should only be at AAA by the beginning of 2025.  And most of the guys you draft don't even make it AAA and some don't even make it ot AA!

So let's take a look at the guys we drafted in 2021 and see where they are now and where they will be projected to start the season in 2024:

1. Gavin Williams - MLB in 2023 (MLB in 2024)

2. Doug Nikhazy - AA (either AA or AAA)

2S - Tommy Mace - AA (AA)

3. Jake Fox -  A+ (AA) NOTE: As a HS draftee, doesn't have to be rostered until after 2025

4. Ryan Webb -  A+ (AA)

5. Tanner Bibee - MLB (MLB)

6. Aaron Davenport - A+ (AA)

7. Jack Leftwich - AA (AA)

8. Rodney Boone - A+ (AA)

9. Will Dion  - AA (AAA)

10. Franco Aleman - AA (AA/AAA)

11. Hunter Stanley - AA (AA/AAA)

12. Connor Koxx - AA (AA/AAA)

13. Davis Sharpe - A+ (AA)

14. Trenton Denholm - A+ (AA)

15. Alaska Abney - A+ (AA)

16. Zach Pettway - A (A)

17. Tyler Thornton - AA (AA/AAA)

18. Tommy Ventimiglia - Rookie (Rookie)

19. Reid Johnston - A+ (AA)

20. Jake Miller - A+ (A+)

We already have 2 guys who have made it to majors.   Only 2 of the 21 draft picks are stalled out in their career development. Ventimiglia can't seem to get his control together at all, even in rookie ball and Zach Pettway, due mostly to injuries.  The other 17 are progressing very well.  In fact, it is possible that, besides Williams and Bibee who have already made their ML debuts, as many as 7 of them will pitch or play at AAA in 2024 with a handful of them possibly making their big league debuts this coming season.  The rest (except for Ventimiglia and Pettway, obviously) could easily be playing at AA or AAA to start the season.

Compare this to the 2019 draft class and where each of those draftees finished the 2023 season

1. Espino - AA

2. Yordys Valdes - A+

3. Joe Naanjo - AA

4. Christian Cairo - A+

5. Hunter Gaddis - AAA/MLB

6. Jordan Brown - A

7. Xzavion Curry - MLB

8, Will Brennan - MLB

9. Will Bartlett - A+

10. Zach Hart - A+

11. Nick Mickolojchak - AAA (injured)

12. Allan Hernandez - A

13. Micah Pries - AAA

14. Ike Freeman - Released

15. Trey Benton - AA

16. Jordan Jones - Released (I think)

17. Julian Escobedo - Released

18. Matt Waldron - MLB

19. Kevn Kelly - MLB

20.Nic Enright - AAA

As you can see, most of the players drafted in 2019 haven't even made it to AA (9/20) in 4 seasons (albeit with the lost 2020 season) even though they were drafted two years earlier (most early picks were HS kids, though). Very few of them show any promise at all of making the leap in projectability to make me think they have any future at all as solid ML contributors, or even guys who will get a cup of coffee in the big leagues.

SUMMARY 

The 2021 draft class could be special, ranking right up there or above the two other outstanding draft classes in Guardians history: 2016 and the 1972 classes (Manning, Eckersley, Kuiper and a couple of others).  Will Dion, Ryan Webb and Franco Aleman appear to be on the fast track and other guys like high draft picks Nikhazy and Mace and almost every other college pitcher picked that year still have some level of promise that they could develop into pitchers who at least pitch in the majors or have 2-3 year careers (similar to Matt Waldron and Kevin Kelly from 2019).    

I have to say that this draft has been, for me, the most fun draft in my history of following Cleveland's drafts as it is filled with promise and almost devoid, so far, from disappointments.  

Guardians Fans: Time To Get Excited About Ryan Webb!!!

 Well, maybe.  

Here's why:

This is the most Webb has pitched in a year since he was drafted in 2021 while dealing with TJ surgery.  

Webb spent the entire 2023 season (except for one ACL rehab start) with the Lake County Captains.   He spent most of 2022 at Lynchburg trying to get back into the swing of pitching after the TJ surgery.  

Ryan Webb was our 4th round pick in 2021, drafted the round before Tanner Bibee.  His 2023 season was more of the same as 2022, trying to get his feel for pitching back.  The stats were a mixed bag of some good starts and some clunkers but in his last 3 regular season starts he pitched 17 innings and gave up 3 ER, striking out 18 while walking 4 and giving up 12 hits and 1 HR. 

I suggested in my "Who Should we Send to the AFL?" post that Webb could use the extra innings in the AFL because of his lost time in 2021 and 2022 added to him starting 2023 on the IL.  

So Webb was indeed assigned to the AFL and that is when the magic REALLY started to happen.

Today he pitched 4 innings and gave up 1 ER on 5 singles (bunt, 3 ground balls up the middle and 1 line drive).  He walked 1 and struct out 6, his 4th consecutive start where he K'd more than 1 hitter per inning.

So now here we are, 4 starts into the AFL season that is quickly drawing to a close and, in 4 starts, Webb has pitched 14.1 innings, striking out 27 hitters to lead the AFL in that category.  He has walked 8 and allowed 13 hits, including 3 HRs for an ERA of 5.65.

To show you how rare what he is doing is, let's look at the last 2 AFL seasons:

• In the last 2 AFL seasons only 4 pitchers (Jeff Criswell, 32, Cole Henry, 30 and Owen White 29 in 2021 and Connor Thomas. 32 in 2022) have struck out more batters than Webb has and it is likely Webb has one more start before the AFL draws to a close in about a week.  If he just strikes out 6 in his last start  (he hasn't struck out less than 5 so far, and that was in his first, 2-inning, start, he would have the most Ks of any pitcher who has pitched in the AFL in those 3 years.  It should be known that Criswell, Henry and White were top 10 prospects in their organization in those years and Thomas was top 15 for the Cardinals last year.
• As it stands right now, Webb has the 2nd best K/IP rate of any pitcher in 2021, 2022 and 2023 in their AFL appearances, bested only by Evan Reifert's ridiculous 25 Ks in 12 innings (1 hit, 4 walks allowed) in 2022.  The next best K/IP rate in those 3 years was 1.5, if you don't count one pitcher from 2022 who walked 14 and K'd 11 in 6 innings.  
• This is being done by a guy who has never played above A+ ball whereas all the other names mentioned above had at least played in AA in the year of their AFL accomplishments, with Thomas having played a full year at AAA in 2022.  This makes his success this fall even more rare.

So, folks, while Ryan Webb is probably not a finished product yet, for him to have this type of success in the AFL, actually historic success after having never played about A+ in his life, is a really good and exciting thing when you consider that, at draft time, he was way more highly thought of than even Bibee as Webb's draft slot was discounted from his actual talent by having TJ surgery before the draft (I think!).  That pedigree means, to me, we are likely seeing a guy just growing into his professional career rather than a mirage in the desert.  Let's hope so as that would be great for the pitching depth in our organzation.

The words that ring in my mind from the MLB Trade Rumors off-season Guardians chat ring true.  When asked who the next great pitcher would be to come out of the Guardians farm system the writer said 'Probaby some guy still in A ball trying to figure it out' or something like that.  Hmmm, I am taking that guy to the track with me next time I go!

IF Ifs and Buts Were Candy and Nuts What A Great HOF Induction Ceremony and Statue Unveiling It Would Be

 Spending a lot of my adult life in St. Louis I got to see, first hand, the power of baseball tradition. including the 12 statues (probably to be 13, soon (Albert Pujols)) outside of Busch Stadium.  That tradition drives the fans to keep St. Louis as a baseball town and have caused dozens of players to want to stay in St. Louis after they were traded there.  

Cleveland has its statues, too, with Doby, Boudreau, Feller, Thome and Frank Robinson.  

But it could have been and still could be a lot more.  And that's what this post is about.  So let's talk about some of the guys who could still have their statues outside of (or inside) Progressive Field. 

Jose Ramirez - Unless something changes drastically (trade, Baerga-like dropoff in his performance) Jose will end up the batting GOAT of this franchise.  That deserves a statue even if he falls short of HOF numbers

Albert Belle - Hey, he was a pain in the butt, likely for everyone he dealt with, but even Roy Hobbs tried to bean a reporter with a baseball so there is that.  Thirteen seasons and 381 HRs (Eddie Murray with 504 HRs never had more than 32 in a season, Albert had 7 seasons out of 12 with 34 or more), with every season but his rookie year having 95 or more RBI with an 11 year run of over 100 a year.  52 doubles and 50 HRs in a shortened 1994 is still the standard I look up to.   Yeah, we know he corked and maybe he even juiced, but the guy was an icon in Cleveland, a literal icon, whose fame was only dulled by the fact that he wasn't playing in New York or LA.  He should be in the MLB HOF and hopefully will, someday.  Irrespective of that, he should have a statue at the Prog, even if he chooses not to show up for the unveiling ceremony.

Julio Franco - Two things: Franco chasing the money to Asia and Mexico cost him the HOF and the Guardians not finding a place for him on their roster every year cost him the HOF.   Franco ended up with 2586 ML hits playing through his age 48 season.  However, he had another 790 hits playing in Japan, Korea and Mexico in years where he couldn't get an acceptable ML contract and could make more money overseas.  Yes, very shortsighted on his part although I am sure the extra money he made may serve him better than a HOF plaque.  Don't know, never talked to him.  But, still, he should have a statue at Progressive Field for his lifetime accomplishments.  This should be a slam dunk if he ever gets inducted into the MLB HOF, which I think, looking at the totality of his playing career, he should.

Omar Vizquel - I know that the allegations of spousal abuse are likely going to torpedo the standard path to the HOF.  However, along with Belle, he was an icon of the glory days of the 90s.  Like Franco, if they could have just found a way to keep him around he would have done all or most of his damage in Cleveland.  He was as good as Ozzie Smith IMO and I saw a lot of each of them in person and on TV.  He deserves to be in the MLB HOF AND to have his statue in or near Progressive Field.  I mean, Pete Rose has his statue in Cincinnati so....

Note, there may be older players/managers who deserve statues, too.  Tris Speaker, Al Rosen, Terry Francona, for example.  But the guys above are the guys I grew up with and they should be honored with statues even if the HOF committee chooses to enforce their own code of morality on these guys.

Recent Trades and Signings - Part 2 - What EXACTLY Can We Expect From Guys We Got In Recent Trades?

 Let's start by listing the guys that we got and lost in these recent trades.  The guys in bold are still in the Cleveland organization.  The guys with asterisks played in the majors for their new team after the trade:

Lost                                                 Gained
Bell*                                              Kahlil Watson

Bauers *                                          Damon Casetta-Stubbs

Eddie Rosario*                                Peyton Battenfield*

Jordan Luplow*                               Myles Straw*

DJ Johnson*                                    Konnor Pilkington*

Phil Maton*                                    David Fry*

Yainer Diaz*                                   Tobias Myers

Cesar Hernandez*                          Anthony Castro*  

JC Mejia*                                       Juan Brito

Kyle Nelson*                                 Ross Carver

Junior Caminero*                           Justin Boyd

Bradley Zimmer*                           AJ Hajjar

Yu Chang*                                     Noah Syndergaard*

Nolan Jones*                                 Kyle Manzardo

Carlos Vargas*

Jose Fermin*

Owen Miller*

Will Benson*

Konnor Pilkington

Richie Palacios*

Amed Rosario*

Josh Bell*

Aaron Civale*

There you have it.  Since the Clevinger trade the Guardians have made trades where they sent away 23 players with 22 of them appearing in the major leagues after the trade.  The Guardians recieved 14 players back in those trades, 6 of whom played in the majors with Cleveland after they were acquired but only 2 of those 6 are still with the team.  Another 6 are prospects (2 in our top 10, and 3 in our top 30).    23 guys out the door, 22 making some contribution for their new team and we only got 6 guys back who made contributions to our ML team and another 6 who might play in the majors in the future.  Seems like a waste of a lot of resources we had for very little return and almost no return to the performance of the Guardians ML team since July of 2020.  The obvious answer to me is bad trading by our FO.

So, if you want the Guardians to make any trades this winter just look at the lists above and maybe you might reconsider that wish.

But it is what it is.  We have what we have left from those trades.  Let's take a look at the prospects we obtained and see what we have in them.

Kyle Manzardo - When you think of Manzardo you have to think of Josh Naylor.  With any luck they will be clones except, of course, that we hope Manzardo avoids any future injuries.  Manzardo is likely to be at least a solid major leaguer albeit limited to DH and maybe 1B, if necessary.  He is at best an aversage first baseman defensively but the hope is that his bat carries him.  Keeping him and Naylor on the same team means that, like Josh Bell, the rotation through the DH position started under Francona to give players a rest will be less likely to be used.  He is either a trade chip or will be in Cleveland sometime this summer, maybe even on opening day depending on their acquistions this winter.

Juan Brito - His floor is as a solid major leaguer, sort of Cesar Hernandez-like.  His ceiling is being a Jose Ramirez clone.   He is an average, at best, defender at 2B but has improved over the past year so there is hope there.  He should have a minimum of 10 HR power which could grow to 25 HR power with a good OBP.   He is either a trade chip this winter or will be in Cleveland sometime in 2024 in some capacity.

David Fry - Given the respect he deserves, Fry will be the best, cheapest 26th man in baseball.  He would be best as the 3rd catcher but could be a backup although that would kill the advantage of his bat as you can't have your backup catcher playing other positions in case he would get hurt.  You don't need to say more than that.

Khalil Watson - The typical 5 tool HS player who either develops or flames out, Watson did not endear himself to Miami fans and I didn't see one article or post bemoaning that they lost him in the Bell to Miami deal.  In fact, a lot of the posts were like "He's Cleveland's problem now".   Remember they said the same thing when we got Joe Carter so there is that and Albert Belle came with his issues as well.  Both turned out to be very good players in Cleveland so let's hope Watson does, too.  Still, he is all potential at this point and it would be nice if we can calm him down and get him focused and going in the right direction, i.e., on the steep part of his learning curve.

Justin Boyd - At first when we got Boyd AND a PTBNL for Benson I was pleasantly surprised.  Then I started to ask myself why would Cincinnati send their 2022 second round pick to Cleveland just months after they drafted him?  Well Boyd was hurt most of 2023 but when he played his 2023 numbers and 2022 numbers, combined, shows that he might indeed just suck.  This would explain why the Reds would dump him like a hot potato, wanting to get a mistake of a draft pick out of their organization before he flames out.  We will see but their quick trade of Boyd combined with his performance since turning pro makes me wonder if we just took on someone else's problems in exchange for Benson.

AJ Hajjar - Anyone who watched him pitch this year would have to say, WTF?  The last thing he looks like is a relatively highly drafted college pitcher.  He looked more like a thrower that some team took in round 12 with the hope they could turn him into a pitcher.  When you are in A+ ball walking almost a guy and inning your career is in trouble.  Was this bad scouting by the Guardians or bad coaching by them or just a blip in his development?  Not sure but there are organizational, roster-filelr pitchers in the Guardians organization who have a much better chance than Hajjar to play in the majors.

Ross Carver - Carver came over in the Vargas trade as an interesting curveball pitcher who, under the Guardians tutelage, could add enough to his fastball to become a successful ML pitcher in the ilk of Aaron Civale.  His 2023, which did include significant time on the injured list, was anything but encouraging.  Hopefully 2024 will be a healthy, productive one for him and he will approach his Aaron Civale-like upside.  If he doesn't improve dramatically in 2024, he will likely go the way of Damon Casetta-Stubbs.

Look, people say our bullpen needs to be better, our hitting needs to be better, etc., etc.  The one thing that will fix everything is that our FO needs to be a hell of a lot better than they have been and turn some of this excess into talent.  I have no faith in that FO right now.  And we have all this minor league talent that has been beaten down and devalued by not giving them a chance to show what they are worth.  THAT is the next wave of Cleveland prospects who could go on the left hand column with little or maybe marginal returns for their prospect capital while our prospects go on and have good careers elsewhere.

The FO sucks at trading and my opinion is that the one, single area that needs to improve the most for our team to be successful is the FO ability to make useful trades where we get back short-term and long-term, as much or more than we give up.  Heaven knows we are due for a few of those trades to make up for the pathetic FO performance over the past 3.5 years.

Recent Trades and FA Signings - Part 1 - What We Traded and Received in Recent Trades

 As I have said before, since trading Mike Clevinger in July of 2020 we have made exactly ONE trade where we came close to receiving than we gave up:  David Fry for J.C. Mejia.  Yes, the Myles Straw trade is very debatable as we received the immediate jolt of gold glove-level defense, something that we had been missing, along with the promise of stability in CF (something that was missing in recent years), more speed on the bases and the hope of decent OB production from Straw.  While the latter didn't occur ,it is hard to argue with the defensive stability Straw has created.  Yes, Phil Maton has been a serviceable reliever for the Astros but it is really Yainer Diaz who is now making this trade look bad.  Remember, at the time, Diaz was simply a good (not great) hitting guy in Lynchburg who looked like his path to the majors was more as a DH than as a catcher...plus he was probably 3 years away from even sniffing the majors given that his highest assignment was in A ball at the aforementioned Lynchburg.  So I am willing to give the FO a mulligan on this trade as it was a  a huge gain in present value (at the time) for Cleveland.  It just may turn out to be a long-term disaster...but isn't that trade deadline deals are SUPPOSED to be for the buyer and the seller?

Aside from that, since July of 2020, our FO has mostly sucked big time on trades.  Let's look at what we got back in trades since opening day 2021:

June 2021 - Jake Bauers traded to Seattle for a PTBNL (recieved Damon-Casetta Stubbs as PTBNL).  Bauers played for Seattle for the rest of the season.

July 2021 - Traded Eddie Rosario to Atlanta for Pablo Sandoval, then waived Sandoval.  Rosario MVP of NLDS.  Still playing for Atlanta

July 2021 - Traded Jordan Luplow and DJ Johnson for Peyton Battenfield - Luplow and Johnson played for Tampa Bay with Luplow going 2-7 with a HR in the 2021 ALDS.

July 2021 - Traded Phil Maton and Yainer Diaz for Myles Straw - We all know how this turned out

July 2021 - Traded Cesar Hernandez for Konnor Pilkington - They got little out of Hernandez and we got less out of Pilkington.

November 2021 - Traded JC Mejia to Milwaukee for PTBNL (David Fry obtained) We have already talked about this one

November 2021 - Waived Kyle Nelson (claimed off waivers by Arizona) - Nelson has pitched  2 years for Arizona, posting a 2.13 ERA in 2022 and a 4.68 ERA in 2023 and has pitched twice in Arizona's post-season run

November 2021 - Traded Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers - We all know how this turned out

December 2021 - Signed Enyel De Los Santos to a minor league deal Best FA signing over the last couple of years (along with bringing Brian Shaw back one last time)

April 2022 - Traded Bradley Zimmer for Anthony Castro Nothing to be excited about for either team

May 2022 - Traded Yu Chang to Pittsburgh Pirates for cash Cash is never something you want to get for any asset

November 2022 - Traded Nolan Jones for Juan Brito - The final story on this hasn't been written yet

November 2022 - Traded Carlos Vargas for Ross Carver - Vargas opened the season with Ari but ended up on the IL again for their AAA team

November 2022 - Traded Jose Fermin to St. Louis for cash - Fermin played at the end of 2023 for St. Louis batting .235 in 51 ABs

December 2022 - Traded Owen Miller to Milwaukee for PTBNL - Settled for cash, instead - Miller helped buoy up during the first half of the season playing multiple postions with an OPS of .674.

December 2022 - Signed Josh Bell as a FA

December 2022 - Signed Mike Zunino as a FA

February 2023 - Trade Will Benson to Cincinnati for Justin Boyd and AJ Hajjar - We all know how this one turned out for Cincinnati.  Boyd was injured most of the year, hitting .150 in 50 ABs and Hajjar walked a guy an inning for Lake County.

May 2023 - Traded Konnor Pilkington to Arizona for cash - Again, unless it is Norm Cash in his prime, cash is never a good thing.  

June 202 - Traded Richie Palacios to St. Louis for cash - Again, there is that 4-letter word.  Palacios hit 6 HR and 6 doubles with an OPS of .823 in September for the Cardinals, more HRs than Will Brennan hit in an entire season.  

July 2023 - Traded Amed Rosario to LA Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard - Rosario played a utility/PR role for LA and Syndergaard was DFA'd before the end of August.

July 2023 - Traded Josh Bell to Miami for Khalil Watson and Jean Segura.  Released Segura - Bell powered Miami to the post season.  Watson had an OPS of .748 with Lake County.  The Guardians are on the hook for $10 million owed to Segura in 2024/5.  If Bell rejects his played option for 2024 getting rid of Bell will have cost the Guardians $8 million and they get Watson.  Miami would end up renting Bell for about $2 million and saving the $10 million owed to Segura meaning, essentially,  they got Bell and $8 million for Watson.

July 2023 - Traded Aaron Civale to Tampa Bay for Kyle Manzardo We will see how this plays out.  it has a chance to be a big win for Cleveland but, unless disaster strikes for Civale, it will never be a big loss for Tampa who essentially invented the opener because they never have enough SP.

August 2023 - Claimed Ramon Laureano off waivers from Oakland Maybe the worst move of the season as it is possible that this move will result in bringing back this overpaid, 30-something AAAA player back in 2024, wasting PT and a roster spot on Laureano when a rookie could use that time.

August 2023 - Traded cash to LA Dodgers for Kole Calhoun - Good move to keep Francona from losing his mind in the last month of the season by having to play rookies; olive branch to veterans for trading away Civale, Rosario and Bell and getting no help back.

August 2023 - Claimed Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore and Reynaldo Lopez off waivers from White Sox - Maybe their best move of 2023, it only cost them about $4 million for these 3 veteran rentals.  Helped save the young arms and gave some stability to the bullpen helping limit young starter innings and helping set up Clase for his league-leading saves total.

AFL - Guardians Results So Far

 OK, with about two weeks of play to go in the AFL season, let's take a look at how players from the Guardians' organization are doing.

1. Kyle Manzardo - Factoring in the offensive advantage that players see in the AFL, Manzardo's fall season in mirroring what he did after the trade to Cleveland:

Statistics in Columbus: 93 PA 16 R 20 H 8 (2B) 0 (3B) 6 HR 16 RBI 12 BB 14 K .256/.348/.590/.938

AFL Stats: 60 PA 15 R 15 H 5 (2B) 1 (3B) 5 HR 13 RBI  6 BB 16 K .283/.367/.698/1.066

Looks like he may be selling out for power a little more with additional evidence provided by the length of his HRs for the Peoria team.    

So it looks like Manzardo is having a solid AFL putting him in an even better position to play for the Guardians next year.  Don't think that his AFL performance his chances of being on the opening day roster, however.  I think he will need about a month with Columbus but the Guardians may, as a PR move, force the issue.  There are plenty of guys who deserve chances before the LHH DH over 1B Manzardo.

2. Ryan Webb - Mirages happen in the desert all the time.  Sometimes they are seen in spring training, sometimes they are seen in the AFL.  So I can't fully quantitate what we are seeing from Ryan Webb so far.  What we know is that he is striking out a lot of guys in the AFL (2+ per inning) compared to his other professional performance (1+ per inning).  The competition level in the AFL is supposed to be much superior to the Midwest League so that is a positive.  It does appear that his AFL numbers mirror his numbers as a RS junior (his draft year):

RS junior year:  59.2 IP, 43 H, 10 HR, 17 BB, 88 K

AFL:10.1 IP, 8 H, 3 HR 7 BB 21 K 

These last 2-3 outings for him will be telling because he did get rocked in his last outing meaking me wonder whether the hitters, in a small league like this, are just figuring him out or not.  He has a chance to come close to matching Manzardo in impact on his prospect status if he has 2 more games like his second start (4.1 IP, 1 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 9 K).  

3. Chase DeLauter - Take away his opening two games in the AFL and he has, simply, really struggled.  We should remember that this kid did not even have a full minor league season (and only a few games at AA) before he was thrown in the deep end in the AFL.  His overall results don't mean much, negatively, given that but he clearly hasn't placed himself on the express train to Cleveland with his performance so far and that is a good thing as he won't have to be protected from the Rule 5 until after the 2025 season.  That is good considering his health and the mounting questions surrounding the weirdness of his swing and how upper minor league pitchers will attack it and how DeLauter will react.

4. Ross Carver - The Guardians must have seen something in Carver as they traded him for the ML-ready flamethrower Carlos Vargas (opening day roster Arizona Diamondbacks).  however, most of 2023 was a lost season for Carver due to injury and, except for a few cases, poor performance (6.53 ERA).  He did have a great starte on August 19th (6 IP 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB 12 K) and his last two starts of the regular season (10.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 9 K).  His assignment to the AFL was, ostensibly, to make up for the innings he lost during the season and while he hasn't done great (3.60 ERA), he has struck out 12 in 10 innings so far.  He does not have to be protected against the Rule 5 until after the 2024 season. 

5. Bradley Hanner - Let's level set here.  Hanner was a MINOR LEAGUE rule 5 pick last year. Most MiLB rule 5 picks never even get to the majors and Hanner, while he was good in his first exposure to AA in 2023, is almost 25 and hasn't made it to AAA yet.  Still, his performance in the AFL certainly has not hurt his status with the Guardians.  If they roster him against the Rule 5, however, it will once again give me serious doubts about the abilities of Guardians player evaluation personnel.

6. Christian Cairo - One of the once-a-week AFL part-timers, he has made the most of his limited opportunities to put up a .348 BA on 23 ABs with a HR and 2 BB for a .901 OPS with only 4 Ks.  Still, guys with lifetime .212 BA in the minors are generally not considered priority prospects, unfortunate as we spent a high draft pick (4th round) overdrafting a guy likely in part because of his baseball heritage.  Still hard to understand why they just didn't send Tyler Freeman to the AFL to give him some ABs to replace the ones he missed sitting on Cleveland's bench AND to work on his OF play.  Instead, Cairo spent time in the OF in the AFL to increase his versatility.  Makes no sense to me.

7. Eric Sabrowski -  Sabrowski, about to turn 26 years old, has been injured most of his career and logged 21.2 innings in Akron this year pushing his grand total of professional experience since being drafted in 2018, to 28 games and 50.2 innings.  The third of three organizational filler guys on this team from the Guardians (along with Cairo and Hanner), I think we could have found a true prospect to send who might have benefitted from the extra reps (Ethan Hankins?).  In the AFL Sabrowski has pitched 5 times for 5 IP and given up 2 H and 2 ER while walking EIGHT and striking out eight.

SUMMARY

Good that the Guardians sent true prospects Manzardo, DeLauter and Webb to the AFL to get extra reps to make up for the time they missed this season.  Ditto to some extent for Carver.  However, Hanner, Sabrowski and Cairo were headscratching assignments to me.  There HAD to be other guys in the organization who were more priority prospects who they could have sent to the AFL.  Guys like Ethan Hankings, Cody Morris, George Valera, Tyler Freeman and even David Fry (work as a catcher) could have gotten extra work in that they needed due to lack of opportunities this year due to injuries and lack of playing opportunities during the regular season.  Heck, even Noel and Rodriguez could have beneftted from extra reps as could have Tena, due to sitting on the bench so much in Cleveland, stunting his ability to playing in Columbus.

UPDATE: New Additions To Rules That Should Be Changed

I posted back in September about Rules I would like to see changed by MLB.  The text of that post is at the end of this post.  Since then a couple of other Rules I would like to see changed have come to my attention.

Non-tender Date vs Rule 5 - Roster Freeze Date

Right now the date for tendering returning players a contract is Nov. 17th. Players not offered contracts immediately become free agents.  

However, the date to set your ML roster/minor league reserve lists is Nov. 15th in preparation for the Rule 5 draft.  That means, theoretically, that teams would have to use a roster spot for a guy they intend or are likely to non-tender two days later.

Now, I know teams are already DFAing/outrighting guys who they don't want on their roster this winter.  So you could clearly do that and not have the above two dates be an issue.

But why?  If the non-tenders were cleared from the roster before that roster has to be frozen it would eliminate the possibility of a team wasting a roster spot for a guy who they don't intend to/shouldn't keep on their roster and plan to expunge from their roster two days later.

Yes, Ramon Laureano, I am thinking about you as I type this. 

Allow trading of draft choices in the 11th and later rounds of the draft

Allow trading of draft picks after the 10th round of the draft for the following year and allow a draft pick to be designated as the PTBNL in a trade.  Here's my rationale

• The amateur draft budges are set up to account for signing draft picks in the top 10 rounds.  Any draft pick after that can be signed for $150,000 or less without being counted against a team's draft budget.  So, in essence these picks do not impact your draft budget unless you want them to.
• Picks on the 3rd day of the draft (rounds 11-20) are generally considered fungible.  That is, almost worthless.  That being said, some major leaguers do come from those rounds.  For the Guardians they got Adam Plutko, Zach Plesac and Doug Jones later in the draft.  
• "PTBNL or cash" is the way the phrase reads when a player is traded not for a player but the possibility of a player withing 6 months of the trade.  Too many times teams opt for cash, maybe because they are cheap or maybe because the teams can't agree on who the PTBNL is.  Not sure, haven't been involved in any discussions.

I am thinking about the Owen Miller trade, the Amed Rosario trade, the Richie Palacios trade and others.  I think teams would rather have a low round pick than cash and, if they would rather be cheap and take the cash, let's make it more obvious that they are cheap.  This might also entice teams that want to pick up these players to actually pay for them instead of hope for a waiver claim, at least when trades are available.  For Miller we got cash.  I would have rather had a 12th round pick.  For Rosario we had to take on Syndergaard's contract.  I think it was obvious that Rosario was worth more to LA than Syndergaard to us.  If we could have gotten a 14th round pick to sweeten the pot it would have helped. I think.  Palacios was an interesting case and represents a number of in-season DFAs necessitated by having to bring up renforcements for injured players or in the case of deadline deals.   The DFA'd players often get claimed on waivers.  Wouldn't it be great if teams could trade for those players using late round draft picks instead of hoping their waiver claim would be upheld?  

ORIGINAL POST

I have discussed that the waiver wire rule should NOT be changed as it is one of the few rules that favor small market teams who struggle to compete in most areas (free agency (domestic and foreign), spending on the draft (i.e., going over draft budgets) and international amateur free agents).  The powers that be will likely push for reform after the Guardians and Reds snapped up guys on the waiver wire at the end of August (funny, no one made a fuss when Cleveland's claim to Ramon Laureano went through!).   The teams/fans that complained the most saw the waiver wire as a way to defeat the single trade deadline instituted as part of the new CBA and get veterans for pennies as part of their push to win the WS.  They were incensed that teams with a marginal chance to make the playoffs would put claims in on these guys.  Most comically, I saw an article in a Cincinnati rag that chastised the Guardians for keeping the Reds from Giolito, Moore and Lopez and claimed retribution might come for this slight in our last two games with the Reds this year.  Hello pot.  It's kettle.  You're black.

While the rule above needs to stay the same there are rules that DO need to change.  Here are the ones that I have recently made suggestions about and a couple of new ones that have come to mind since:

 Rule 5 Criteria:

• Players selected in the ML portion of the Rule 5 draft MUST be on the active ML roster of the team that drafted them for 90 days in the season after they are chosen or they have to be offered back to their original team.  No longer will a team be able to draft a player who is injured and stash him on the DL/IL during the season while he recovers from his injury and gets more experience.  This also eliminates that player having to pass through waivers before they are offered back to their original team.  The current rule allows for a player to be passed from team to team during the season, effectively eliminating the need to roster the player during the season after they were drafted in the ML Rule 5 as they can be stashed until the next year where they would have to finish their ML service time to be able to be sent to the minors without being offered back to their original team..
• Players signed before they are 17.5 years old have an extra year of protection before they are Rule 5-eligible

Team Control 

• For players who were 19 years of age or younger at the time the 2020 minor league season was originally scheduled to begin:
• Teams get an extra minor league option year for players who fit this description who are currently on a team's 40 man roster.
• Teams get an extra year of player control relative to that player becoming a 6-year minor league free agent

NOTE: This makes up for the loss of experience that a young player would have gotten during the 2020 season.  Although a few players got an extra year of development by being on alternate site rosters, no one was actually playing minor league games during 2020.

Roster Control Issues

• Create a perpetual 27th man spot on ML teams to avoid the travesty and injury risk and travesty to the game when position players pitch in ML games.   It would go like this:
• Each ML team is allowed to carry a 27th player on their roster for all games. The player must be:
• a pitcher
• someone not on the 40-man roster who has not appeared in a major league game that season as a 40-man roster player.
• Must have played in at least 5 professional seasons (2020 counts even though there was no minor league baseball)
• must not appear as the 27th player more than one week every calendar month
• must only appear in a game where his team is trailing by more than 10 runs.   If you are winning by more than 10 runes (say, Minnesota last night) you don't get to take advantage of this rule.
• The player
• receives his minor league salary on all days where he does not pitch
• receives major league salary in games where he does pitch
• does not receive credit towards his pension for time as the 27th man
• does not have to be optioned to the minors after his time as a 27th man is complete
• A 28th man is allowed to be carried on the roster for a doubleheader situation under the same rules as the current 27 man rule.
• Position players are no longer allowed to pitch in a ML game unless the ML team has used, as a pitcher, every pitcher on their active roster not counting the starting pitchers they used in their previous 2 games.  

Challenge Rules

Maybe it is because I am old and my mind doesn't work that fast any more but I think we need to make some changes to the challenge system to help managers of a certain age.

• Every team gets 2 'evaluation periods' of 45 seconds each during the game during which time they need to decide whether they are going to challenge.  Teams can challenge within 15 seconds of a play without using one of these evaluation periods.  If they ever lose a challenge in a game the evaluation periods, obviously go away.
• Like in football, the team that wants to challenge  (or that wants to use an evaluation period) should throw a yellow flag/towel onto the field to signify this.  The hand gesture of earphones will still be used to signify that they want to actually challenge.
• I think check swings should be challengeable except in cases where the batter is trying to avoid being hit by a pitched ball.  The latter should still be umpire discretion.
• If they are not already, I think fan interference should be challengeable.  Player interference should remain the discretion of the umpires.
• I think MLB should review every manager ejection over the past three years to see if there are any other areas that are not currently challengeable that should be made challengeable. 

Thoughts for a Thursday - We're Searching - New Manager, New Right Fielder, Middle Ground Prospect Hype, Reasonable Trade Options

 MANAGER SEARCH

Well, we are still looking for a manager.  Apparently Guardians' history tells us that we should have one near the beginning of November.  With Francona being here for so long that has got to be a ridiculously small sample size...and out of date, too.

Thoughts on some of the names that have been popping up:

Will Venable - Interesting that he won't even interview.  This says to me that being the next manager in Cleveland is NOT a job that anyone would give their right nut to have.  My impression is that they are having a hard time finding a guy willing to replace the HOFer Francona here and, like so many head coaching jobs in college and the pros, the guys who want this type of high profile job are really not qualified for it.  They just want to chance to show how good they can be.  Really a bad recipe for success.

Female Candidates - I am a little shocked that this is coming up.  Being a female GM like Kim Ng makes perfect sense.  You are dealing with analytics, interpersonal relationships and business dealings.  Your player interactions are not game-based.  You don't have to know the in-game strategy. You literally do not have to have playing, coaching or managing experience to be a GM.  But to be a manager?  Heck, baseball people don't really have the qualifications to be a manager and most of them have been around baseball their entire life.  This is not a gender equity thing.  We are not talking about why female executives have a glass ceiling.  We are talking about managing at the highest level in a complex game.

Mark Budzinski - A familiar name and one that is intriguing to me. 

Troy Snitker - He is 34 and like presidential candidates there is a reason that they won't allow anyone who is below 35 to run for president.  They are simply not experienced enough.  Ditto for Snitker as a manager.  However I would pay him $1 million a year to be my hitting coach and to polish up Gonzo, JRod, Noel and all of our young MIF prospects.

RIGHT FIELD SEARCH

I have seen it all now.  Left fielders being considered for RF (Austin Hays).  One year of control guys being considered even though there is no way they will re-sign with Cleveland (Juan Soto).  No consideration of handedness (Soto).  No concern about who would have to be moved around to make a trade work and how it would impact the rest of the team (Kwan to CF).  Bringing up the flavor of the month rookies (DeLauter, Manzardo) before they are ready not considering that there are other answers internally that need to be tried (JRod, Noel, Gonzo).

This is simply, in many minds, a desperate grab to improve the team next year.

There are alternatives out there.  It's just time to find a long-term one, either internal or external.

MIDDLE GROUND PROSPECT HYPE

For a while I have been saying that DeLauter has a weird swing.  But even though I have watched baseball my entire life I am no expert on hitting.  Heck, when I played I was a three true outcome guy: strikeout, walk, HBP.  That being said, I knew something was off about DeLauter.   Weird front foot tap, looks like he is hitting without incorporating his lower half, a LOT of weak contact but kbarreling the ball more than I have ever seen with any Cleveland prospect...but many cases without any power at all in his hits.

Now that Keith Law, a known baseball writer, has said the same thing with more detail, now diehard Cleveland fans are all up in arms.  When one of guys you have dubbed as the messiah in your farm system is questioned, you get all defensive.

DeLauter has lots of positives about his game.  Barreling an inordinate number of balls, big guy (power potential), fast for his size, above average arm and oozing athleticism.  A potential steal in the first round of the draft who was a projected top 10 pick before his injury and questions about whether he could hit LH pitching.

DeLauter also has lots of negatives: that swing, his broken foot issues, his lack of current ability at hitting LH pitching which was even evident in college.  A potential overdraft in the first round of the 2022 draft at a time where we needed a big success.

Next we have Kyle Manzardo.

Great professional track record marred only by his injury and family health issues earlier n 2023.  Hitting for power now in AZL...a guy who is cast as a hit-over-power guy with emerging power at just the right time, maybe making him a viable dark horse option to open 2024 in Cleveland's lineup.

We also have a guy who is limited to 1B/DH, not a great athlete, can't hit LH pitching, not a great fielder, with a recent, significant injury whose power surge may simply come from the Arizona desert and who won't truly be ready until late 2024...on a normal career trajectory.

That's the issue, really.  You see what you are looking for, not what is really there.  But this is so typical of die hard fans and their antithesis...the emperor-is-not-wearing-clothes 'pragmatic' naysayers.

So let's just have some middle ground here.  And let's not overhype certain guys when other, important guys are being overlooked.

The FO and Francona has buried Freeman, Rocchio, JRod, Noel, Gonzo and others and the thing diehard fans should REALLY fear is these inept wheelers and dealers trading some of these guys are the artificially low value that the FO, itself, has created to the refrains of 'the market didn't value these guys very highly and this team had needs we had to address'. 

So, diehard fans of the Guardians, don't be misled by the mirages that appear int he desert.  We have lots of GOOD prospects like DeLauter, Manzardo, Rocchio, JRod, Noel, Freeman, Martinez, Tena, Arias, Gonzalez and others, but none of them has separated themselves from each other.  Overhyping certain guys just exposes the rest of the guys to being given away from little or nothing (Caminero, Jones, Benson, Palacios, etc.).  We don't want the FO thinking we won't notice if they screw up again.  That was our mistake, as fans, in the past.  If we keep an even, wait-and-see keel assuming all of our top prospects are potential above average MLers, maybe the FO won't be so quick to dump some of them, leaving us with Arias as the only viable option at SS and with more of an aging, expensive roster that will soon have to turn over without benefit of a strong farm system.

REASONABLE TRADE OPTIONS

One response to my suggested megatrade with the Cardinals that I posted about recently was to dismiss it saying that it was a dream trade and then suggesting we could probably get a starting right fielder if we sweetened the pot by including someone else with Bieber.  The specific target was LFer Austin Hays who has 2 years of control left and middling, non-messiah like stats.  The thought of trading our biggest trade chip, Bieber, for Hays AND having to give Baltimore a viable top prospect or major league piece in addition just makes me sick.  

Find a reasonable trade that is a win for both teams and, for the Guardians, results in an asset with lots of control.

A guy like Luis Robert.  Is it a dream that we can get him at all? Probably.  But if there is one guy who COULD be available with a team that matches us (they need prospects, we have prospects) it is Robert.

Or maybe Jordan Walker.  Still mostly potential (-0.1 WAR this year and a BAD defender in RF) this 21 year old is likely to improve by leaps and bounds in the future.  St. Louis needs starting pitching, we have starting pitching, albeit was limited control (Bieber one year, Quantrill 2 years).  Seems like could make this happen.  My 'dream' trade (Beiber, Quantrill, Straw for Walker, O'Neill, Graceffo, Kloffstein, Mautz) is all about need, organizational philosophy and matching up with your trade partner.  I just would really like to know what the Cardinals would say if you proposed this trade to them.

I would much rather have that trade rather than something like Freeman and Bieber for Hays with Hays playing RF when he is primarily a LFer.

Our SS situation - A Flash from the Past

 Look, in my opinion the Guardians are screwing this up.   Arias sucked this year yet he got all the playing time.  Freeman had his moments when he got a chance but he hardly got a chance and he is more of a second baseman.   Rocchio is clearly the SS of the future, IMO,  as Arias is only good if he could hit .250/.320/.410.   He hasn't shown anywhere close to that but that tantalizing power, strong arm and adequate hands make him the flame and us fans the moths.  Tena and Martinez are still a ways away but neither shows any flash that would make me think they are going to overtake these three.

So I wanted to look at two past SS in Cleveland and compare with the two main candidates for our SS spot in 2024.  The comparisons I am going to make are Rocchio-Vizquel and Arias-Peralta.  These will not be perfect comparisons but, to me, these are the best matches I can think of.  Please, no Frank Duffy comments from the audience!

Omar Vizquel vs Brayan Rocchio

Vizquel played his first minor league season at 17 and frst appeared in the majors when he was 22, sticking in the majors for good when he was 24.  In his minor league career he did not hit many HRs, did steal some bases and walked about as much as he struck out. When he got to the majors that profile persisted but he became a better hitter as career went on, but still only had 2 years where his OPS+ was over 100.  Vizquel's calling card was HOF defense, however.  

Rocchio also made his ML debut at 22.  He only had a few ABs.  His BB/K rate in AAA was similar to Vizquel's in his first AAA year before he made his ML debut.  He did not show as much base stealing prowess as Vizquel but he got to double figures in two mnor league seasons, something Vizquel never did (only once in the majors).  It is difficult to tell how much above average Rocchio will be at SS in the majors but he looks like he definitely will be above average defensively.

Both Rocchio and Vizquel are switch hitters.

So, while the defense of Vizquel stands out, I see them as being similar overall, with Rocchio being a better hitter with more power earlier in his career but Vizquel being the better defender.  I like this comparison as a reasonable career trajectory for Rocchio

Johnny Peralta vs Gabriel Arias

Peralta debuted at the age of 21 and his first year OPS was .621 in 270 PA. Up to that point he showed some power in the minors, getting to double figures twice. He went back to the minors the following year and played almost the whole year there.  He established himself as a major league starting SS at age 23 with an .885 OPS and 24 HRs.  From then on he be counted on for double digit HRs but not many SBs (only 17 in his career compard to .202 HRs).  He was never known as a stalwart defender but did a pretty good job at SS so, along with his hitting, he was a fixture at SS and a 3-time all-star.  

Peralta hit right handed pitching slightly better in his career but had a higher OPS vs LH pitching.  

We don't have much data on Arias, also a RH hitting SS with some power.  After a successful minor league career where he got to double figures in HRs 3 times, Arias made his ML debut at age 22 and played part time at age 23, mirroring Peralta's age 21 season in production.  Arias hit 10 HRs in his real ML debut (not counting the cameo in 2022).  His arm is very strong and accurate and he has good hands on defense.

Just like Vizquel/Rocchio, we don't have enough data on Peralta/Arias yet.  However, if Arias brings his BA against LH pitching up to .250 he will likely have a similar offensive profile to Peralta.  That is a big if but he at least has a chance to be close to Peralta offensively

Summary

So, there you have it.  Two wildly extreme comparisons based on less than sufficient data.  Still, it's fun to dream on what these guys can be and represents a warning to the Guardians: If you give up on either of these guys before you know what you have, you are likely to get burned as you did with Nolan Jones, Will Benson, Yainer Diaz and Junior Caminero.  

The Guardians have really screwed this up.  Neither of these guys is worth a lot right now in trade but they are certainly worth having patience with AND keeping them in this organization.  My money is on Rocchio as Arias looked lost almost beyond recovery this year.  Still, no way is Arias that bad against LH pitching nor is Rocchio that non-selective as the hitter we saw from him in 2023.  

Please take the above with a large boulder of salt...but it does give you something to dream on, doesn't it?

Thoughts About DeLauter and Manzardo

 DeLauter

• I was wondering about his swing.  He seems to connect with the barrel A LOT.   After watching him play this year it occurred to me that he hits a lot of medium to deep fly balls and I was wondering if that would result in him getting more than the average number of sacrifice flies.  He had 3 during the regular season this year in 242 PA, meaning that he would have probably had 7-8 if he had played an entire season.  So far in the AFL he's had 5 sacrifice flies in 53 PA.  Now, I get that he has had a lot of opportunities in the AFL as his team is scoring a lot.  But, still, he has taken advantage of those opportunities and I honestly think his odd swing helps get him more SF.  Being able to put up a sacrifice fly when you need a run is a good skill.  I think that would make him a good #6 or #7 hitter in our lineup even in back half of 2024.  
• He is 2-11 against LH pitching in the AFL and was hitting .244 with a .592 OPS in the regular season.   His ability to hit LH pitching is still in question.
• He can run for a big guy as he is 4-4 in the AFL in stolen bases after stealing 6 bags (9 attempts) in the regular season.  He's looked fast on the bases, at least to me and above average going from first to third, even while probably babying his recovering broken foot.
• His defense seems to destine him for a corner OF position and I would like to see more of him in RF to see if he his arm plays there.  In the regular season he had 2 OF assists, one from LF and one from RF.  In the AFL he has two assists from RF.  He did pitch in college which shows that his arm is above average, at least. 
• Although the AFL inflates offense stats he has walked more than he has struck out and has scored and driven in more runs in each of those categories than he has base hits. 

I think that he has a good chance to play in Cleveland sometime next year but I don't know if the Guardians will do that as they might want to hold him back until 2025 when they could get a full year out of him and put the team in position to get a draft pick from the PPI if he wins the ROY in 2025.  If he comes up in the middle of the year they can't get a PPI draft pick.  He has to be there to open the season or be called up for good less than two weeks into the ML season.  He could still play for a short time in September and retain his rookie status for the PPI in 2025.

DeLauter does not have to be rostered until after the 2025 season to avoid exposing him to the Rule 5 draft.

Kyle Manzardo

• He has been pathetic against LH pitching this year, He hit .159 against lefties in AAA this year on a sample size of 131 PA.  His OPS against lefties was .595.   This is not really a small sample size and is trending towards being a weakness that he has not addressed in the AFL, going only 2/13 against LH pitching there.  
• He has hit 5 balls a long way in the AFL.  You can say what you want about AFL hitter inflation but the guy has an OPS of over 1.000 so far in 49 PA but has struck out 12 times compared to 6 walks, which is not exactly a great rate if you are thinking he will be in the majors next year.  The best thing about that power surge is that it makes it look like his shoulder is healthy as its hard to imagine that level of HR production from someone with an injured shoulder.
• He has made 14 errors in the equivalent of one full minor league season at 1B.  He doesn't look smooth right now, even compared to Josh Naylor, so he likely appears, until he works more on his defense, as being a DH more than a 1Bman. He also has the disadvantage of throwing right handed as right-handed first basemen are at a disadvantage on pickoff throws and some throws to second base.  So, for the Guardians, he is the worst combination of being yet another LH bat while being a 1B-linited RH fielder.

If Manzardo showed even an inkling of being able to hit LH pitching or that he could play an above average 1B defense I could see him making the team out of spring training.  However, I see him starting 2024 back in Columbus.  I would rather give RHH Jhonkensy Noel a shot at 1B before Manzardo, even though I think Manzardo will end up as a better overall hitter of the two.  Just don't know if the limitations in Manzardo's game will cause him to have to polish his game up before he gets to the majors.  I don't however, think the Guardians would hold him back for PPI reasons.  I honestly don't think with what I have seen so far that he would put up the kind of numbers as a rookie, especially not in 2024, that would even keep him in the ROY conversation.  Also don't think another year at AAA would change his first year production in the majors.  So they can bring him up whenever they think he is ready.  He does have to be rostered after the 2024 season to keep him out of the Rule 5.

Blockbuster Trade Proposal

 For those of you who read this blog or follow me on the medium formerly known as Twitter, you know that I am a Guardians fan by birth and a Cardinals fan by the fact that I lived there for 35+ years.  So thinking of a trade between my two favorite teams that would help both of them is foremost on my mind.  I mean, we already gave them Richie Palacios so that should gve us an edge in them wanting to trade with us, right?

So, let's propose right here, right now, a mega-trade between these two Central Division contenders.   But is there a fit?  Well, the Guardians have veteran pitching in Bieber and Quantrill.  The Cardinals have made it know they are going after veteran pitching this off-season and we know how expensive that market can be. The Cardinals have an outfielder that the Guardians should covet and minor league pitching to backfill and holes this trade would make in the Guardians' rotation.  The Guardians also have an outfielder the Cardinals can  backfill their OF. So....let's go!

The Guardians trade: Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill and Myles Straw to the Cardinals

The Cardinals trade: Jordan Walker, Tyler O'Neill, Gordon Graceffo, Adam Kloffenstein and Brycen Mautz to the Guardians.  

Why this works for the Cardinals: 

• They want veteran pitching and, for one year with Bieber and 2 years with Quantrill, they will get two of the types of pitchers they like.   It saves them a lot of money as we know how expensive the FA market can be and with their recent Steven Matz disaster, they likely would prefer to avoid the long-term, expensive route that FA starters would bring.  After this trade they would STILL have to add one top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher but at least they have saved some money for that by trading for veteran starting pitching that is as good and much cheaper than what that quality would cost from free agency
• Look, they are losing 2 ML outfielders in this trade.  This franchise values defense and it was their outfield that really hurt their defensive rankings this year as they were 20th in OF defense with a -7 DRS according to FanGraphs.  Straw solidifies their CF defense while removes the defensively challenged (at least for now) Walker in RF.
• They get to keep their #1 pitching prospect, Tink Hence, while getting two ML starting pitchers and only have to give up 2nd tier starting pitching prospects to do this.

Why this works for the Guardians:

• Looking at the FA market the Guardians are going to have to trade for that powerhitting RFer they want.  I have posted previously about the trade options and there are some that would be good ones..but there are some that I hate, including trading for one year of Santander or two years of the mediocre Austin Hays, not mentioning the other one-year and mediocre guys we could trade for or overpay for as FA.  Jordan Walker is potentially that long term solution in RF and Tyler O'Neill, if healthy, adds pop in LF. 
• We get back two ML-ready starting pitchers in Graceffo and Kloffenstein if we need them to backfill for the loss of Bieber and Quantrill although I would suggest that what we will actually do is, in addition to this trade, sign a FA starting pitcher.  
• Mautz is that longer-term play that keeps this trade value from being fully realized for a couple of years.
• Straw's offense and defense have deteriorated since he was traded to Cleveland.  Simply, we need more offense than a combination of Straw and Brennan/Gonzalez/etc. provide.
• We save money on salaries that we can apply to getting a veteran FA starting pitcher and maybe accepting large salaries back in a trade (Luis Robert?).

There is risk involved in this trade for each team, to be sure.  Here are some of the risks that come to my mind immediately for each team:

Cardinals risk:

• Both Bieber and Quantrill spent significant time on the IL this year
• Bieber is a 1-year rental and Quantrill is controllable for only 2 years.  They just got out of a situation like that with Flaherty and with the acquisition of Montgomery in a trade in 2022.  Do they want to put themselves in a position to have to look for starting pitching again for the 2025 and 2026 seasons?
• Straw's offense and defense have regressed.  Will he find another gear after the trade and become a more formidable offensive threat and a gold glover centerfielder again or will he be Harrison Bader-like when they just traded away Bader?  Remember, Straw is signed for 3 more years and the Cardinals would be stuck with that if they decide they don't like his overall package after seeing him in 2024.

Guardians Risks:

• Walker had an overall WAR of -0.1 in 2023.  His defense was pathetic but it was his first year playing OF full time, having been a 3rdbaseman before. His offensive production was weak but he started the season as a 20-year old and, at the time of his callup, was the #1 prospect in baseball.  Will his inherent athleticism allow him to make the light-year improvements he has to make in defense to be playable there and will he improve his hitting or regress in 2024 based on his 2023 numbers being probably tamped down by his young age?  Or will he go all Oscar Gonzalez on us with his 2023 production appearing like a flash in the pan like Gonzalez's 2022 numbers are looking like?
• O'Neill is hurt all the time.  Will he be able to stay healthy enough to be productive for us on offense for an entire season?  
• If O'Neill plays DH, we have created a hole in center field that we have to fill.  If he plays LF we have to move Kwan over to CF and that way weaken our OF defense (ranked 10th in baseball by FanGraphs in 2023).  The question is can Kwan play CF or, if he stays in LF and O'Neill DHs, can we find an internal option (Brennan, Valera??) who can play CF at an acceptable level?  Or can we use our resources to trade for one (Luis Robert? Jorge Barrosa?)?
• If we can't sign a free agent starting pitcher are the combination of Curry, Gaddis, Graceffo and Kloffenstein good enough to get the necessary number of quality starts to give this team a chance to win AND to weather the storm if we have injuries to McKenzie, Williams, Bibee or Allen?  Part of reducing this risk is if the Guardians think Cantillo will be ready in 2024 and whether Dion can up his game to get ML hitters out routinely without getting bombed or having high pitch counts early?  Will any other starting pitcher (Webb, Burns, Nikhazy, Mace, Messick, etc.) be able to make meteoric rises to help us in the 2nd half of 2024 if we have a rough patch with starting pitching sometime next year?

So, there you have it.  A trade that should scare the crap out of the fans of each team making them scream to the heavens "No FREAKIN' WAY.  WE GOT ROBBED".  In other words, the perfect trade for each team!

The Annual I Suck At Predictions...Sort of...Post

 OK, time to come clean.  Stop the presses for a news flash.  I suck at predictions.

Let's dive in and see what I predicted and how things turned out:

• W-L records (acual records in parentheses)
• Cleveland 91-71 (76-86)
• Columbus 86-64 (68-79)
• Akron 69-69 (65-73)
• Lake County 73-59 (65-64)
• Lynchburgh 66-66 (67-64)
• Guys making their ML Debuts This Year
• Tim Herrin
• George Valera
• Brayan Rocchio
• Jhonkensy Noel
• Only as injury callups
• Logan Allen
• David Fry
• Peyton Battenfield
• Micah Pries
• Kyle Marman
• Guys not being called up this year
• Bibee
• Williams
• Tena
• Martinez
• Breakout Prospects for 2023
• Ryan Webb
• Doug Nikhazy
• Jose Cedeno
• Jonathon Rodriguez
• Dayan Frias
• Juan Brito
• Ethan Hankins
• Justin Boyd
• Gabriel Rodriguez
• Mason Hickman
• Aaron Davenport
• Ten Prospects To Watch in 2023 (either becoming top prospects or organizational filler)
• Gabriel Rodriguez
• Alexfri Planez
• Jonathon Rodriguez
• Micah Pries
• Isaiah Greene 
• Tanner Burns
• Jake Fox
• Juan Brito
• Ethan Hankins
• Logan Allen
• Ten Very Interesting Recent International Signees To Watch This Year
• Jaison Chourio
• Angel Genao
• Jose Cedeno
• Austin Aldeano
• Juan Benjamin
• Wuilfredo Antunez
• Maick Collado
• Nelson Aranguen
• Rafael Ramirez Jr.
• Manuel Mejias
• Welbyn Francisca (DSL)
• Yerline Luis (DSL)

SUMMARY - The predictions in bold came true.  Not real good on predictions or the guys who wouldn't be playing in Cleveland in 2023 (LOL).  As far as make-or-break guys this is a loaded category but I think I did pretty well as some guys on this list enhanced their prospect status and some went downhill to the point they are now organizational players.  Only Jake Fox and Tanner Burns in that group are still on the fence about whether they will be playing in Cleveland someday.  I was only 50-50 on breakout prospects and one of those, Ryan Webb, has broken out based on the entire body of his work in 2023, including his AFL work.  That is how I thought he would look all year in 2023. 

So, for the most part I suck at predictions but we learned that in previous years.  Nice to know some things never chance.

Thoughts For A Wednesday: Be Grateful for 2022, Tankathon, Desert Mirage, 4th Option/6 yr FA Light at the End of the Tunnel, Potpourri

 Be Grateful for 2022

Guardians fans, besides the 92-70 record, we also played a couple of rounds in the playoffs in 2022, winning 4 games while losing 3.  So far in the 2023 playoff season, Tampa Bay (2nd year in a row), Toronto, Milwaukee, Miami and Baltimore have been swept in their first series of the postseason.  Made it to the playoffs but none of these teams won a game.  The Dodgers are on the brink of elimination, having to win three games in a row, 2 of those in Arizona.  Only Houston (up 2-1) and Atlanta (tied 1-1) are in any position to win their division series as the favorites in those series.

I know Cleveland has been swept in post-season series in the past (dating all the way back to the disappointing WS of 1954) but last year was satisfying in that we were at least in the series we played in.  I would have much rather had that than playing hard all season only to go down without much of a fight in the playoffs.  Just feels better and i am grateful we had that last year.

Tankathon

The is a website for almost everything.  Tankathon | 2024 MLB Draft Order & Lottery Simulator website calculates the order that teams will draft in the next draft.   Besides loving the concept of a tank-a-thon, the end of the season dash to secure the best draft pick, it is a place where you can track where your team will draft.   The website is even fitted with a time clock that counts down the time until the draft lottery for 2024 is conducted.  Classic!

Right now, Cleveland is slated to draft 9th but that depends on how the draft lottery in a couple of months plays out.  The scenarios are as follows:

• Cleveland could draft in places 1-6 if they are winners in the lottery.
• Cleveland could move up to #8 if the Mets don't win a lottery spot and all those spots are taken by teams with worse records than Cleveland.  The Mets, #7 right now, would drop to #17 due to exceeding the salary cap threshhold.  
• If the Mets win a lottery spot and one non-playoff team with a better record than Cleveland wins a lottery spot, Cleveland drops to #11 as Washington is fixed at #10.
• Cleveland can drop below #11 by one spot for each additional team that would win a lottery spot.

So, theoretically, given that there are 6 lottery spots than can be won by all the non=playoff teams but Washington, Cleveland can still draft anywhere from #1 to #15.  We won't know until the lottery.

FYI, last year Minnesota was slated to draft #13 but won a lottery spot and picked #5, netting them Walter Jenkins who is currently the #16 prospect in all of baseball.  Compare that to Ralphy Velazquez, our draft pick, who is probably between 125-150 in all of baseball right now.  

So magic could happen but also disaster could happen...and we won't know until the draft lottery.  Let's hope for a LeBron James draft year scenario for Cleveland.  

Desert Mirage

People are getting excited with the positive things Chase DeLauter and Kyle Manzardo are doing in Arizona in the AFL  DeLauter's great first game, Manzardo's 3 HRs and DeLauter's 2, league-leading 15 RBIs and 2 stolen bases, they all look good.

But I want to interject a lot of caution.  DeLauter and Manzardo rank 7th and 8th ON THEIR OWN TEAM in OPS.  They are hitting .276 and .200, respectively.  Compared to others on their team they are among the poorest offensive performers on that team.   Pitching is pretty thin in that league.  The best pitcher Cleveland sent to the AFL is Ryan Webb who might not even be a top 30 prospect for the Guardians.  After him we have Bradley Hanner (a minor league Rule 5 pick last year), Erik Sabrowski,( a 26 year old career minor leaguer), Ross Carver (the disappointing return in the Carlos Vargas trade to Arizona last year).  None of these last 3 are any more right now than organizational filler. They are just there to get extra innings in and fulfill the Guardians' requirement to fill out their AFL roster responsibilities. THAT is representative of what a lot of the pitching looks like in the AFL.  Thus hitters in the AFL SHOULD perform well. Using that as a yardstick it makes the offensive performance of DeLauter and Manzardo look even more pathetic.

Not all, or even anything, is lost at this point.  It is early in the AFL season as we still have more than 2/3 of that season to play.  However, all is not good in the desert for Cleveland at this point and it is highly possible that the whole AFL season could still be a disaster for Cleveland, at least in terms of statistical performance.

4th Option/6 Yr FA, Light At the End of the Tunnel?

Yesterday MLB Trade Rumors reported that Ivan Herrera, the #3 catcher on the Cardinals catching depth chart, will be granted a 4th option year by MLB.  In MLB, a player placed on the 40-man roster by a team can be optioned to the minors in 3 separate seasons.  If a team wants to option a player a 4th time they must first place through waivers.  The one exception is that a player can be granted a 4th minor league option if they completed the first 3 option years before they have 5 'full' seasons in organized professional baseball.  'Full' is defined 90 days on an active roster and/or IL.  The article goes on to say that Herrera (Iván Herrera Minor, Fall & Winter Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com) played his first two seasons in rookie leagues (DOSL and FCL), neither of which qualified as a full season since neither had seasons that extended past 90 days.  He played a full season in 2019, 2021, 2022 snf, of course, 2024.  The key here, then, is the 2020 season.  Him being granted a 4th option year would imply that MLB is not counting 2020 as a full minor league season.

Up to this point, every indication was that MLB was considering 2020 as a full season and Rule 5 eligibility and 6 year minor league free agency seemed to count it this way.  However, if the Herrera situation is as reported by MLB Trade Rumors, it would seem like there might be a crack in the armor of MLB in terms of how they consider the lost 2020 minor league season.  If, indeed, they don't count it as a minor league season then the following players might be granted an extra option year:

• Johnkensy Noel - Noel will likely use up his 3rd option year in 2024.  After 2024 will have played 4 years of full-season ball (2021-2024) if they don't count 2020 as his 2018 and 2019 seasons we spent in rookie ball.  If they would count 2020, he would not be eligible for the 4th option.
• Juan Brito - He likely won't need a 4th option year but if 2020 doesn't count and he played rookie ball in 2019 and 2021, he really has only used up 2 full seasons in the minors and one option year.  Thus he should have his full compliment of 4 option years if he would need one in 2026, based on what we know about Herrera.  Brito was set to expire his option years after 2025.
• George Valera - Valera has already used up 2 option years and given the lost season 2023 was for him, is almost guaranteed to use up his 3rd option in 2024.  He would have used up 4 complete seasons after 2024, assuming his 2019 doesn't count and 2020 doesn't count.  Thus, if they needed a 4th option for him in 2025, Herrera's case would seem to show it would be available.
• Brayan Rocchio - Rocchio played full seasons in 2021, 2022, 2023. In 2018 and 2019 he played rookie ball, not exceeding 90 days for either year.  He has already used up 2 of his options and if he uses the 3rd one in 2024 he will only have 4 full seasons of professional ball at that point, meaning he would get a 4th option year, if needed, in 2025.  
• Jose Tena - Tena has used up two of his option years (2022 and 2023) but, like the others from the 2017 international class, he will have played only 4 full seasons in the minor leagues (2021-2024) if he uses his 3rd option next year because he played 2018 and 2019 on rookie ball teams.  Thus he should be eligible for an additional option year in 2025, if needed.

For guys in the international class of 2018 or 2019 they likely would not be eligible for this extra option year if 2020 is not counted as a full season.  If you use Angel Martinez as an example he played in 2019 in rookie ball but played in 2021 and 2022 before he was rostered.  2023 counted as his first option year and he is eligible to be optioned to the minors in 2024 and 2025.  At that point he should have 5 full seasons in professional baseball after his 3rd option has been used, meaning his 4th option year wouldn't be available.

So, this seemingly innocuous decision on Ivan Herrera could have huge implications on the player control for some of the Guardians top prospects.  This could impact our ability to hold onto them until they fully mature and could also increase their value in trades since the acquiring team would have an extra year of control.

The other aspect of this decision by MLB that I alluded to above is that this decision calls into question previous decisions where eligibility for Rule 5 and 6 year minor league free agency were impacted by 2020 being counted as a year of control by the organization.    If MLB has softened its stance on the major league options relative to 2020 being considered a full season in the mnors, they might retroactively grant an extra year of control to teams who have players coming up to Rule 5 and 6-yr minor league free agency who were impacted by the lost 2020 minor league season.  Stay tuned.

Potpourri

• The managerial search in Cleveland must be going hot and heavy.  I hope they take their time and do a lot of consideration on who the right guy is for a roster this young.
• I did an analysis on RF options for next year and then, last night, read an article on why Tyler O'Neill would be an interesting option.  He has only played 32 games in RF in his career and has been hurt repeatedly the last 2 years.  I can't envision a trade scenario in which we would get O'Neill and the Cardinals would accept the deal unless we traded Nick Sandlin or Hunter Gaddis for O'Neill.  He really answers NONE of the questions we have for our roster in 2024, all things considered. Hey, I liked him last year in June but now, given how injured he is and doesn't play a position of need, I have very little interest in him unless it is for one of the guys above. Xzavion Curry and above and any prospect in our top 20 is out of the question for O'Neill at this point in his career.  Now, if they want to talk about Jordan Walker...
• I can't believe Mandy Bell named Parker Messick as one of the guys to watch in 2024.   Will Dion, I agree with although his lack of velocity is concerning.  Now, if she mentioned Ryan Webb, we might have a discussion.  Although he had an uneven first AFL performance, he gave up a leadoff triple in the first and struck out the side and struck out 2 guys after walking the leadoff hitter and giving up a 2-run single in the second.  There is something there.  Now, Messick DID increase his velocity after his promotion to Lake County but, as I said at the time, any stats he had at Lynchburg were just a college pitcher beating up on immature hitters in A ball.  If you look at his Lynchburg numbers you will also see that his peripherals don't look that good for a college pitcher in that league.
• Still waiting to get reports on our injured pitching prospects.  Inquiring minds want to know!