Is It Time for the Left-handed Catcher?

 Before the 2021 season Anthony Castrovince wrote an interesting article on why there are no left-handed catchers, myth-busting a lot of the typical reasons that have been proposed.  Here's the link: Why there are no left-handed catchers in MLB.

I mean, why not?  There is a stereotype that RH throwing first baseman are at a disadvantage taking pickoff throws at 1B, right?  Yet there are still RH throwing firstbaseman in the majors.  Why? Because it works, gets better hitters in your lineup and, partly, the advantage of having your glove-side closer to the first base line is a huge advantage of preventing doubles at the expense of singles, instead of the other way around for LH throwing firstbasemen.  Same thing with left-handed throwing infielders, in general, although I get his argument a lot more than for first baseman or catchers. 

Given the new stolen base rules and the dearth of good-hitting catchers that allow guys like Austin Hedges to have a job, I thought I would do a quick revisit of the idea.

Clearly, the main reason why there are no left-handed catchers is that no one trains to be a catcher when they are young.   It's not a glamorous position and is the position I feel is most likely to get injured.   But there is the rub.  Just like in any other field of work, one school of thought is that you aim your career in a direction where there are the most jobs.  In baseball, it is clearly as a good hitting catcher who is athletic enough to become a good catcher.  

And you don't have to start young.  Tony Wolters started as a middle infielder in Cleveland's minor league system and tried catching in his 4th year in the minors.   David Fry started catching his senior year in college.  

In the era of positional versatility having your 3rd catcher be able to play 1B, LF and RF would be important.

So, you say, why not go the route of Fry and Wolters and learn catching after you become a pro?  Or, like Bo Naylor, learn to hit LH or throw RH when you are a little kid to enhance your positional versatility.  OK, you have me on that one.  But I repeat: why not a lefty-throwing catcher?  

Let's look at some data:

• One main argument is that there are more RH batters than LH batters and lefty catchers would have a harder time throwing out runners.  Let's look at the ratio of qualified LH and RH hitting batters.  I am only looking at qualified hitters is that they are full-time players and other guys with less plate appearances would likely be part of a platoon and switch-hitters would not be relevant, although you could make the case that since there are more RH pitchers, the numbers below could actually favor a LH catcher since the LHH switch hitter or platoon specialist would hit more often than when a RHH is needed.
• In 2023 the ratio of RHH/LHH was 1.87
• In 2022 it was 2.25
• In 2021 it was 2.19
• In 2020 it was 1.67
• In 2010 it was 1.77
• In 2000 it was 1.42
• In 1990 it was 2.00
• In 1980 it was 1.74
• In 1970 it was 2.15
• In 1960 it was 2.29
• In 1950 it was 1.79
• If you look above it is hard to find a CURRENT trend but back in the day, RHH dominated MLB more than they do today, meaning a potential disadvantage of LH throwing catchers is lessened compared to when this conventional wisdom came to be.
• There are only 4 positions that a LH thrower can currently play as compared to 8 for RH throwers.  Statistically, if you had LH hitting/throwing catchers you would likely be able to improve your lineup balance.

So, as AC says so eloquently in his article, there is no real reason why we can't have LH throwing catchers.  I am all for enhancing your minor leaguers skillsets to make them more valuable to your ML team or in trade.   I am still for trying to teach every pitching prospect the knuckleball once they plateau out when their skills obviously won't play above a certain level.  Matt Waldron has, once again, shown how effective that could be. We have shortstops playing CF for gosh sakes, with Freeman doing a great job.  Like Freeman, Fry and Wolters have shown us, being a good athlete gives you a leg up on switching positions.  We are trying CF with Martinez, Watson, etc., why not try catcher with some of our LH hitting slap hitters, whether they throw RH or LH.  

Let's be innovators, Cleveland.  We have to take advantage of every opportunity and I think with the limitations on the # of minor leaguers we can have in our system, positional versatility and maximizing skillsets has become even more important. Plus, teams have to find a way to stop the running game and I think a LH throwing catcher trying to pick a runner off at 1B might be another tool in a team's arsenal to do just that.  C'mon, Guardians.  INNOVATE.  

2024 Draft - Part 14 - the History of Our 2024 Draft Slots - Our 6th-10th Round Slots

 Ok, let's take a look at the history of the slots for the 6th through 10th rounds of the 2024 draft.  Once we got to round 5, all the draft compensation additions and losses had been factored in and so, starting with our pick at #175, the slot for each subsequent pick SHOULD increase by 30, meaning our 6th round pick would be #205 and so on.  Of course, if a team or team drops out before the 20th round, our pick slot would increase by one or more places in each round.  But, since this has never happened since we went to 40 rounds and now 20 rounds, I'll just assume that we will have the slots as they are now.

So, let's dive in to see the draft history for each of these next 5 slots, remembering that the draft started in 1965 and we will only be looking at the history through the 2019 draft as guys drafted after that are still writing their career story. Also note that as we move into these rounds the data becomes skewed as, in a given year, the same team will make all the picks for those slots during that draft.  So, if a team has a bad draft it means that every pick in the 5 below for that year will not make the majors.  A great draft in these 5 rounds would be like the Brewers had in 2005, where 3 of these 5 slots yielded major leaguers, including Michael Brantly at #205.  It also means that, since about 1996, Cleveland will likely have made picks in each of the slots below or not make a pick in any slot below for that given year.  

#205

• 11 of 55 picks at this slot through 2019 have made the majors
• Michael Brantley and Kyle Kendrick are the most well-known players selected at this slot
• The Guardians have selected once at this spot but that player never played in the MLB.

#235

• 11 of 55 players selected at this slot have made it to the majors
• A number of fringe major leaguers came out of this slot but Jeffrey Hammonds appears to the best player selected at #235.
• Surprisingly from my searching, the Cleveland Guardians have never drafted a player at slot #235

#265

• 13 of 55 players drafted at this slot have made the majors
• A number of fringe major leaguers were drafted at this slot.  Mark Teixeira was the most famous name drafted here out of high school but did not sign.
• It appears the Guardians have drafted once at this slot (through 2019) and Tom Lampkin made the majors.  Zac Kent, currently at AAA Columbus, was also drafted at this slot.

#295

• 7 of 55 players drafted at this slot have made the majors
• The most famous player drafted at this slot was John Stearns.  Pete Rose, Jr. was also drafted at this slot.
• The Guardians have drafted 3 times at this slot through 2019 but none of those players made it to the majors

#325

• 8 out of 55 players drafted at this slot have made it to the majors
• The most famous players drafted at this slot were Dave Parker and Mickey Hatcher
• The Guardians have drafted 3 times at this slot with Jeff Barkley being the only one to have reached the majors.

SUMMARY

Look, rounds 6-10 in the early years of the draft were not what they are now, really skewing the % of players making the majors to below what that percentage is now in these rounds.  Scouting is better buoyed by the advent of analytics and the percentage of college players selected in those rounds is increasing and is starting to produce more major leaguers.  With NIL I see this percentage of success in rounds 6-10 (and, so, at these slots) increasing as I predict that these rounds will be dominated by college players with the best remaining HS players after round 5 choosing to go to college for the NIL money and gambling on their ability to improve in college and stay healthy so they can increase their draft status for when they are college juniors.

Current State of the Cleveland Guardians - 4/22/2024 Edition

 OK, it's April 22nd and the Guardians are 16-6.  That means they only have to go 46-94 the rest of the way to beat my pre-season prediction of a 61-101 finish.  

With that in mind, let's take stock of where this team and its players currently are and where we can expect everyone and everything to go if the season progresses to its natural conclusion.

Team

• Almost everything has gone right so far this season.   Teams we are playing are playing their worst against us.  Important injuries on other teams have seemed to coincide with when we play them. Our relievers, down to the last man, have been really good, some even great, despite some analytics showing that these guys are unlikely to maintain their current level of production.  Tyler Freeman has been impossibly better on defense in CF than anyone could have imagined.  Even with the defensive lapses by Rocchio and Arias, baserunning mistakes galore, no real contribution from Laureano, a poor start from Ramirez and the injuries to Bieber, Williams, Hentges, and no totally unexpected offensive contributions for any individual, they are still 16-6.  It would not surprise me if we only had to go 74-66 the rest of the way to qualify for the playoffs (90-72 overall).
• Austin Hedges may be having an unbelievably unmeasurable, intangible positive influence on this team just like he did the Pirates last year.  Speaking of the 2023 Pirates...
• Realizing that last year the Pirates were 20-8 to open the season, it should be noted that the Guardians still would have to go 4-2 in the next two series to reach that mark and remember that the 2023 Pirates ended up 76-86 after their hot start including losing 11 of 12 after their fast start. So the key is to avoid long losing streaks, minimize bad losses, stay healthy and win the series against teams who are struggling at the time we play them.
• After playing the Red Sox in Cleveland, their schedule is:
• @ Atlanta (3)
• @ Houston (3)
• Angels (3)
• Tigers (3)
• @ White Sox (4)
• If the Guardians can win 2 of 3 from Boston, 1 of 3 in Atlanta and in Houston and win 2 of 3 against Detroit and split 4 games with the White Sox they will have gone 8-8 on this part of their schedule meaning that their overall record would be 24-14.   That would be a great outcome, in my opinion, especially winning 2 of 3 from the Tigers, who will no doubt challenge for the AL Central title this season.   Obviously, all those series are big, but I think the biggest is the Boston series.  If we can show that our 3 out of 4 in Boston was not a fluke with a Boston team that is playing very well we could use that as a springboard to have more success in this 16 game stretch...or...
• The Guardians could lose all 3 to Boston, get swept in Atlanta and lose the first 2 to Houston for an 8 game losing streak before winning the last one in Houston.  They could then lose 3 out of 3 to Detroit before splitting with the White Sox to end up 4-12 on this stretch on the way to a 2023 Pirates-like collapse. 
• While Kwan, Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez are carrying the team right now, David Fry being David Fry and Gavin Williams and Sam Hentges on the mend, there is still room for improvement for other players with much of that being expected or, at least, hoped for.  

Individual Player Improvement

• Jose Ramirez - For this team to be where they are with his struggles this year is amazing.  Even if he returns to his substandard (for him) 2023 levels, this offense gets a big surge from him.
• Tyler Freeman - His offense should get a lot better than it is now.   This team will need that when the top 3 above cool off.
• Brayan Rocchio - I really think his offense will improve but his defense is just pathetic in every aspect.  He needs to improve that, too, in order for any uptick in offense to help the team, overall.
• Gabriel Arias - He has trended up recently but really needs to get to a .265 BA, 320 OBP, 420 SLG to be a real asset to this team the rest of the way.
• Will Brennan - Like Rocchio, he needs to improve on both sides of the ball and, so far, that improvement over 2023 is not in evidence.  I don't know what switch has to go on but his offense and even his defense have to be better.
• Bo Naylor - The guy, after Ramirez, on this list whose improvement is most likely to occur, all he has to do is keep producing.  If his 2023 mirrors his 2024, by the beginning of May he should be raking.  His defense is already much impvoed from last year.

The Wildcards

• Ramon Laureano - As I HATED this signing in the off-season it is hard for me to think that any improvement will occur.  But I hope that it does but, if not, hope that the Guardians do a Mike Zunino and dump Laureano before June 1st and bring up some youngster who will provide the team with an unexpected spark.  Laureano simply has not helped this team although his veteran presence would imply that he should.  Besides, dumping a non-performing Laureano would help this fanbase consider that no nepotism is taking place, vis-a-vis his prior relationship to Vogt.
• Estevan Florial - He has shown glimpses of what he could be but is still K-ing at an unacceptable rate..and on balls in the zone. His current level of production would suffice if he would just get his BA up to .260 with a corresponding drop in K rate.
• Austin Hedges - Everything else (defensively and bench/clubhouse-wise) is there, but could you PLEASE get your BA up to .200 and you OBP up to .250?  PLEASE!
• Starting Pitching - The current guys, plus Williams, just need to keep on keeping on.  They have kept us in  every game we have played and if we can just keep that going, that will be acceptable.
• Bullpen - There is enough experience and, for the younger guys, talent there to make it continue to work.  Again, keep on keeping on.
• Minor League Prospects - This is a key to a big uplift in performance on the Guardians if guys continue to underperform or get hurt.  I can't impress enough that it is performance by these guys that will likely make the difference in whether we make the playoffs and, especially, if we do, whether we are going anywhere IN the playoffs.  In the best world, we could make the World Series if a bunch of these prospects 'go off'.   If Manzardo can be here and perform well at DH that would help.  If 2-3 of Brito, DeLauter, Martinez, Tena, Rodriguez, Noel and/or some unexpected wildcard (e.g., Schneeman) can have breakout rookie year performances that make up for deficits in parts of the lineup or bench that could be enough to sustain our offensive production.   If bullpen help like Walters, Aleman, Enright, Gose and Burns can be quality and better than what we have now when called up, that would be really useful.  If Curry can be a success as a starter that would be great with any success we get from Dion and, later this year, Cantillo, being unexpected but welcomed plusses, all 3 being depth starters that we KNOW will be needed, as they are every year.  Again, I can't impress enough how important some performances like this are and you only have to go as far as Evan Carter in Texas last year to see how valuable that type of performance in the 2nd half of a season can be.

So things are looking good right now.  Is this all based on a house of cards?  Maybe but if the FO makes the appropriate moves in bringing guys up and sending guys down, you could be looking at annother 2022-like magical season...but with the minor leaguers providing the icing on the cake that propels us further into the playoffs.

2024 Draft - Part 14 - the History of of Our 2024 Draft Slots - Draft Slots #113, #146 and #175

Part two on the history of the draft slots that the Guardians have in 2024.  Today we will look at the history of the slots (up through 2019) that the Guardians will pick in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds of this draft.

#113

• 17 of 55 picks at this slot (through the 2019 draft) since the draft began in 1965 have made the majors.  
• The only major leaguer of real note among those 17 is Yadier Molina.
• Paul Byrd is the only player Cleveland ever drafted at that slot.

#146

• 15 of 55 picks at this slot since the draft began in 1965 have made the majors
• The only major leaguer of note drafted in this slot was Ozzie Smith
• Cleveland drafted 2 players at this slot with Jimmy Kremmel being the only one that played in the majors

#175

• 18 of 55 picks at this slot have made the majors
• The players of note who have been picked at this slot include Troy Percival, Storm Davis, Taylor Buchholz, Matt Boyd and a number of ML middle relievers.
• Cleveland has drafted at this slot 3 times but none of the players drafted ever made it to the majors.

Summary

As I think is well-known, the chance of coming up with a major league drop drastically after the first couple of rounds and this is borne out by looking at the draft history for the slots above.  However, the Guardians have recently been really good at coming up with major leaguers in the 3rd-5th rounds including Steven Kwan (5th), Shane Bieber (4th), Aaron Civale (3rd), Hunter Gaddis (5th), to name just some of the most recent ones.  With the increase in money they should have to work with (almost $1 million from the 4.99% excess over budget, alone) they have a chance to do really well in these rounds this year.  So I have my hopes up that we should be able to grab some real talent with these picks.  Whether that will be high ceiling/low floor HS stars or high floor/medium ceiling college pitchers like Bieber was when he was drafted, over even more college bats, remains to be seen.  But the money...and the hope from this draft geek...makes these picks very interesting.

2024 Draft - Part 12 - The History of Our 2024 Draft Slots - Draft Slots #36, #48 and #84

 As we continue to move towards the 2024 draft, I wanted to look back at the history of each of the 21 slots the Guardians will draft at this year.  Although it would be obvious to start with their 1st pick at 1-1, I am going, instead, to finish with that pick and start with the Guardians' second pick of the 2024 draft, at slot 36 and included information on slots #48 and #84, as well. 

While I recognize that who is picked at each slot in the draft is a complex mixture of teams drafting for need, drafting to save money, drafting to spend excess money and, of course, the ubiquitous 'teams like who they like', I think it is a good look back into the history of these draft slots, if nothing else  

Note that while I have done research on all 59 of the previous drafts, I am only including the players who have made the majors who were drafted BEFORE 2020, as those drafted since then are still writing their own stories.

So let's dive into the draft history of these three slots as we approach the 60th year of the MLB June draft:

SLOT 36

• 34 out of 55 picks at this slot (through 2019) have spent time in the majors
• Johny Bench was the inaugural (1965) pick
• While it would be hard to beat Bench's success as a #36 pick, Randy Johnson was also drafted at that slot
• Cleveland has twice drafted at #36, with the first time being Chris Bando in 1978, likely the worst June draft in Cleveland history.  The next time they had that slot was in 2020 when they drafted Tanner Burns, who seems to be establishing his worth as a relief pitching prospect for the Guardians.

Slot 48

• 26 out of 55 picks at this slot (through 2019) have spent time in the majors
• Cal Ripken and Josh Donaldson are the two most notable players who were picked at this slot.
• The Guardians have twice selected at #48, picking Pete Carganilla in 1984 and Javi Herrera in 2003.  Neither made it to the majors with the latter being overdrafted with the thought that they could take a great defensive catcher and turn his sub-par hitting around, which history will tell us did not happen.  Keep that in mind, Guardians, when you are drafting this year.

Slot 84

• 14 of 55 picks at this slot (through 2019) have made the majors
• The most notable of the players selected in this slot through 2019 were David West and Jeremy Guthrie, although the latter did not sign and was drafted in the first round (slot 22) the following year by Cleveland.
• Cleveland has NEVER drafted at this slot although Chris Valaika (2006) and Owen Miller (2018) were drafted at #84 and both have spent time with the Guardians as a hitting coach and utility player acquired in the Mike Clevinger trade, respectively.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Next time we will look at slots #113, #146 and #175.

The Race to Be 1-1 in 2024 - Part 4 - Settling Into The Daily Rhythm

 OK, we are now halfway through April.  College teams have been playing games for 2 months now and the usual suspects are now over 150 plate appearances or approaching 50 IP.

I am thinking that it is almost 100% certain that we are going with a college bat at 1-1. Sowith that in mind, here are how the players at the top of my draft board are doing.

Travis Bazzana - Travis just continues to steam along.  There have been a few cracks in the armor, a 2-error game, a game where he got picked off TWICE, only 8 stolen bases so far after 36 last year.  But, for the most part, the numbers seem to indicate that he has been solid on both sides of the ball.  In fact, if he was up to 20 steals right now (instead of 8), I don't know that I would be listening to discussion of anyone else, especially since Bazzana is an up-the-middle player and still has more HRs than Ks. He is a little older than most college players in the draft.  He ended the weekend with a 1-4, BB, 2K game and didn't deliver in the 8th when his team was trying to come back, so there's that (more to come on that in an upcoming article).  Through games of April 14th here are his 'raw' numbers (i.e., devoid of analytics)

AB: 123 ABs

R: 56

H: 56

RBI: 45

2B: 8

3B: 4

HR: 18 

SB/CS: 8/4

BB/K: 45/15

AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: .455/.610/1.024/1.634

Charlie Condon - Condon set such a torrid, video-game-like pace for himself early in the season there is no way he could keep it up, right?  Well, he's been pretty darn close as he is still cranking out HRs and still is keeping his Ks down, meaning his HR/K rate is still video-game-like.  He has played all over the field including starting mid-week games in CF and 3B but the word on the street is that that is all window dressing and he will end up as a 1B/DH/LF option only in the pros.  We'll see about that in a few years!  Still, with that spectre hanging over his head and with his numbers starting to come down, he looks like a solid #2 in the prospect list because, frankly, he hasn't been hurt, he's been productive and we know he will not be limited to 1B like Kurtz will be.  In any case, you can't argue with the bat, at least at the college level.  And he hits and throws RHed which, as it turns out, is good if you are an outfielder but not so good if you are a first baseman.  The only other blemish on his resume is that he is a draft-eligible sophomore meaning he likely won't come cheap if you were thinking the Guardians were going to bank some money from their 1-1 pick to use on later picks.

AB: 137

R: 51

H: 66

RBI: 52

2B: 12

3B: 1

HR: 24

SB/CS: 2/1

BB/K: 32/25

AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: .424/.526/1.109/1.697

JJ Wetherholt - I have mixed emotions for this kid.  On one hand the hamstring injury, following one last summer, probably eliminates him from spots 1-1 or 1-2, and maybe even through 1-5 so this will cost him money.  At the same time there is no way teams will be so off him that he will last to pick 10, meaning he still will get paid.  His hit tool and his middle of the field potential is just so great that he would be an incredible bargain starting at 1-6 and there would have to be a slew of guys who go ballistic down the stretch for him to fall even to 1-9.  So don't really focus on the numbers below.  Look at his numbers from last year and dream on those.  That is what his drafting team will see as they can possibly get a 1-1 talent for about $4 million less than what he was worth in January.  

AB: 41

R: 12

H:13

RBI: 8

2B: 3

3B: 0

HR: 2

SB/CS: 3/0

BB/K: 10/6

AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: .317/.467/.624/1.091

Nick Kurtz - Kurtz was the most vulnerable college player (vulnerable to drop if things went wrong for him) simply because he is limited to first base.  He could go .295/25 HR/.850 OPS as a LFer but those numbers, while very good, just don't ring true for a 1-1 first baseman.  He is going nuclear right now so we will see if teams overlook his early season slump and shoulder injury, the latter of which is MUCH more concerning to me as he can and probably would play through this in college as his draft value hangs in the balance, which might cause more damage and cause him to miss pro time next year.  But that nuclear HR binge he is on is bringing him back to top 5 discussions, especially for teams who are rebuilding and would be happy with that production as a building block to their team of the future, no matter if it is from LF or 1B, especially with how good he is said to be at 1B.

AB: 91

R: 38

H: 33

RBI: 38

2B: 5

3B: 1

HR: 16

SB/CS: 1/0

BB/K: 39/19

AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: .333/,505/.744/1.414

Braden Montgomery - Early in the year people were talking about Vance Honeycutt as the colleg 5-tool guy and people are even talking about HSer Konnor Griffin (see below), developing into that guy as he matures.  But now with the binge Montgomery is on people are talking about him being THAT guy.

While I don't buy it, that is the talk and, with his numbers and the potential for top of the shelf athleticism, he is in the conversation for top 5, to be sure, and if some scouting director wants to roll the dice, even as early as 1-2 because the other guys in the top 10 all have warts they are unlikely to lose and Montgomery has no obvious detriments that can't be polished, at least on paper.

AB: 137

R: 45

H: 52

RBI: 58

2B: 11

3B: 1

HR: 19

SB/CS: 4/2

BB/K: 33/28

AVE/OBP/SLG/OPS: ./.891/1.399380/.509

SUMMARY

So Bazzana is still at the top of the leader board for me.  He is not nearly the sexiest guy in this group but he just checks all the boxes for me.  People think you have to get a franchise talent at 1-1 but, in this class, I think you have to get a perennial all-star and I think Bazzana is that guy with an upside of Jose Ramirez and a downside of Jason Kipnis.  Reasonable people can disagree and some people are thinking Condon, more and more are thinking Montgomery and some are thinking Kurtz or Wetherholt if we can get a discount.  Finally, there are those people who dream on Konnor Griffin being a franchise talent, and don't kid yourself, there are a lot of people who think that we should go for a franchise talent, no matter if it is a risky pick.  

I am pretty sure it's going down to the wire for the Guardians choice and I am also relatively sure that money will have something to do with it.  I can't help but notice that the Guardians are giving away most of their remaining international bonus pool (ca. $400,000, I think).  Maybe the goal is, now that we have 1-1, to save a little money for the draft.  

View From (Almost) The Top - The Guardians As They Approach The Home Opener

 55-98.  That's all the Guardians have to go the rest of the year to beat my prediction of 61-101. 

On the very top two atomic layers of the surface, the Guardians' start is very encouraging.  

• Vogt's managing has been REALLY good.  
• The starting pitching has given us just what we need to be successful, a chance to win every game
• Our bullpen, with the exception of Barlow and Morgan, has been outstanding and these 2 have good enough track records to be hopeful that they will turn things around.
• Our hitting, like our startng pitching, has given us just enough to be successful.
• Heck, even our two losses have been by only 1 run and both after great comebacks by the offense.
• While there have been more misplays (on the basepaths and on defense) than a successful ML team should have, we have weathered those gaffes which, hopefully, will be fixed in short order as, like I said, ML teams should not have these sorts of bonehead defense and baserunning blunders, no matter what the record.

Note that this is exactly the same MO that the 2022 played under: beating the odds and putting up outstanding performance after outstanding performance against all odds and with more than the average percentage of players having surprisingly good seasons...and without a lot of physical breakdowns.

Also note that this year the Pittsburgh Pirates are 8-2.  This follows 2023 when they started 7-3 and then 20-8 but ended up 56-78 in the last portion of the season for a final 76-86, identical to the final record the Guardians posted in 2023.

There it is!  He successfully snatches negativity from the jaws of optimism!

Given how the Guardiansverse has reacted to Shane Bieber's TJ surgery announcement, you would guess that many Guardians fans either felt the optimism of the team's (and Bieber's) early-season performance or simply were playing ostrich and forgetting about this team's inherent deficits and questionable off-season moves and non-moves that were going to catch up to them at some point.

So, for me, nothing has changed.  There are reasons both for optimism and pessimism.  

So let's check with the angel on my right shoulder who is optimistic for the following reasons:

• We are 7-2 and Jose has not kicked it into gear yet.  There should be some uptick in our offense from him.
• Steven Kwan and Andres Gimenez are looking like improved versions of their 2022 seasons, exactly what we would have liked to see in 2023.  This uptick in offense looks like it will be there long term.
• Tyler Freeman looks like an offensive upgrade to Myles Straw and appears to be very playable in CF.
• Although he has started slowly, Bo Naylor will clearly be an offensive upgrade to what we had at the beginning of last year.
• The bullpen has been incredible and there are more prospects in the minors who showed out at ST and in the beginning of the year in the minors plus getting Curry back could be crucial as we may need him as an opener.
• Hedges is as advertised.  He is a positive clubhouse presence and a good mentor for Bo Naylor.  Still, with Bieber out for the season, how is he going to get playing time with Naylor and Fry being able to fill the primary catcher spots?
• We have Manzardo and DeLauter in the minors for an infusion of offense and youthful enthusiasm just when we need it during the season....right?

Now, on my other shoulder the devil is telling me:

• The Guardians painted themselves into a corner by trading Civale last July and Quantrill in the off-season.  It meant they were counting on Bieber and McKenzie to come back just to give us 5 good starters.  That plan has already gone in the toilet as Beiber is out for the season and the rotation plan is looking even more shaky as McKenzie looked highly questionable in his first start of the year.  Even with Carrasco giving us good opener-type performances we are still short on starters.  And there isn't anyone coming up from the minors.  Cantillo is hurt for 2 months and wouldn't have been ready during that 2 month stretch anyway as he still has significant polishing to do.  Dion is at least a year away and there is really no other prospect at AAA now that Espino is down for the year.  The FO put us in a situation that it had to be Bieber, McKenzie, Bibee, Williams and Allen. No ML-ready minor leaguers this year and except for Carrasco, no one who is capable of carrying the water bottle for any of the top 5 was brought in as a free agent this off-season.  The FO simply chose to go with that 5 and it already isn't working.
• Our SS situation is highly questionable.  Although Rocchio is hitting, his fielding doesn't look like it plays as a ML SS.  Arias is quickly becoming this year's forgotten man as even when he does play he doesn't look motivated.  It would be great to send him to AAA for a reality check but our AAA middle infielders are either hurt (Martinez) or not playing like they are ready (Tena, Brito).  If we didn't have a roster crunch and if he didn't hit left-handed, I might be tempted to bring up Schneeman to be the utility guy as at least I know he would show the hunger to stay in the majors.
• Our experiment with Florial appears to be going down the toilet, too.  He is showing what he has shown with the Yankees in his brief trials with them.  He may be a major leaguer for some team, some year.  It is just getting more and more obvious that it won't be for the Guardians this year.
• Laureano and his $5.1 million contract is looking as bad as I thought it would.  He is a journeyman player and those guys are worth $1-2 million in the current market.
• No way both the Twins and Tigers tank it bad enough for us to make the playoffs.  Both will do enough damage against the Guardians and enough damage against common opponents that the Guardians' weaknesses are likely to cause them to take enough losses to not even win in the weakest division in baseball.

This is what the angel and the devil on my shoulders are telling me.  The bright-eyed 10-year old optimist in me says that we can pull this off, just like in 2022.  But the jaded senior citizen in me says that we were in trouble before Bieber went down and the hole we had to climb out of got much deeper.  But I figured that all in with my 61-101 pre-season prediction.    Much has changed in the positive direction with our early-season success but enough has gone wrong already, especially with the pitching, that I think it balances all the positive out.  

People are saying Bieber's injury is the last nail in the coffin of 2024 for the Guardians.  While that might be true, those of you who read my blog know that I have said for a long time that 2024 was being set up by the FO as a prep year for 2025 and that fans should be in for the rough ride that Dolan hinted at for 2022.  

You also know that I have said not to trade Bieber this past off-season (given how few legitimate starting pitchers we had) unless you got overwhelmed, which must not have happened, meaning he was worth more to us than in trade.  The fact that he is now worth nothing in trade doesn't change the trajectory of 2024 nor, truth be told, 2025, as the return would likely have been decent but not enough to move the needle in 2025.

So my advice to Guardians fans is the same advice I would have given to 2023 Pirates fans.  Enjoy the ride and realize you are retooling for future seasons.  

When opening day comes tomorrow realize that this season, no matter what the record, is not a failure unless we stop developing our young players and wasting prospects or money trying in a futile attempt to bring in veterans to compete with teams like the Dodgers.  That WOULD be a failure and a waste of resources (see Nolan Jones, Will Benson and Junior Caminero).  

So, fellow fans, enjoy the ride and ride this winning streak as long as you can and, after that, don't whine that we didn't trade Bieber, don't whine that the FO didn't overpay FAs or sign a couple of expensive guys who might have gotten us to the wildcard round in the playoffs, but no further.  Look at the big picture and plan to get your season tickets in 2025.  Now THAT is going to be an exciting team and this year, like 1993 &1994 before 1995, is just the prelude to the opening act of the next wave of Guardians winning seasons.

Go Guards!  As the case when I was a kid, if they win I am happy.  If they lose I am happy I got to root for them.  The only difference now is that I get to watch every game on MLB Network and don't have a bedtime that causes me to have to sneak my transistor radio under my pillow to listen to the team I love.

Guardians Top Prospect List - 2024 Minor League Opening Day List

 

OK, all the full-season minor leagues have opened (Lake County was weathered out...) so, with those in mind and with updated injury and release news, here is the first version of the 2024 in-season prospect list for the Guardians.  The players I noted in the last version, Rocchio, Gaddis, Herrin and Fry all made the opening day ML roster and so should exhaust their rookie status in short order and De Los Santos (who might be as high as 11th on this list) was returned to Arizona

1. Chase DeLauter
2. Jaison Chourio
3. Juan Brito
4. Kyle Manzardo

5. Angel Martinez
6. Alex Clemmey
7. Jose Tena
8. Joey Cantillo

9. Andrew Walters

10. Welbyn Francisca
11. Ralphy Velazquez
12. Daniel Espino
13. George Valera
14. Angel Genao
15. Khalil Watson
16. Cade Smith
17. Ryan Webb
18. Robert Arias
19. Jonathon Rodriguez
20. Jhonkensy Noel
21. Rafael Ramirez Jr.
22. Will Dion
23. Dayan Frias
24. Jacob Zibin
25. Petey Halpin
26. Jake Fox
27. Jackson Humphries
28. Ethan Hankins
29. Franco Aleman
30. Tanner Burns
31. Lenny Torres, Jr.
32. Doug Nikhazy
33. C. J. Kayfus
34. Daniel Schneeman
35. Justin Campbell
36. Parker Messick
37. Cooper Ingle
38. Jose Devers
39. Wuilfredo Antunez
40. Robert Lopez
41. Brayan Lavastida
42. Alex Mooney
43. Ross Carver
44. Nick Mikolajczak
45. Jose Pirela
46. Yerlin Luis
47. Jack Leftwich
48. Shawn Rapp
49. Alexfri Planez
50.  Joe Lampe
51. Justin Boyd
52. Juan Benjamin
53. Davis Sharpe
54. Nate Furman
55. Milan Tolentino
56. Tyler Thornton
57. Trey Benton
58. Micah Pries
59. Raynel Delgado
60. Aaron Bracho
61. Jose Cedeno
62. Andrew Misiaszek
63. Gabriel Rodriguez the elder
64. Tommy Mace
65. Connor Kokx
66. Victor Izturis
67. Dylan DeLucia
68. Hunter Stanley
69. Magnus Ellerts
70. Aaron Davenport
71. Reid Johnston
72. Kody Huff
73. Yorman Gomez
74. Alonzo Richardson
75. Miguel Flores
76. Gabriel Rodriguez the younger
77. Juneiker Caceres
78. Manuel Mejias
79. Bradley Hanner
80. Randy Labaut
81. Christian Knapczyk
82. Alaska Abney
83. Joe Naranjo
84. Yeury Gervacio
85. Estivel Morillo
86. Luis Reyson De La Cruz
87. Alberto Mendes
88. Nic Enright
89. Christian Cairo
90. Luis Merejo
91. Yaikel Mijaras
92. Mack Collado
93. Trenton Denholm
94. Isaiah Greene
95. Josh Wolf
96. Luis Aparicio
97. Jonathon Martinez
98. Esteban Gonzalez
99. Matt Wilkinson
100. Keegan Zinn
101. Jorge Burgos
102. Javier Santos
103. Luis Durango Jr.
104. Evilio Hernandez
105. Melkis Hernandez
106. Jordan Jones
107. Adam Tulloch
108. Edelvis Perez
109.  Austin Aldeano
110. Jake Miller
111. Fran Alduey
112. Tommy Hawke
113. Guy Lipscomb
114. Jacob Bresnahan
115. Juan Frances
116. Johan Rodriguez
117. Dauri Fernandez
118. Randy Martinez
119. Tommy Reyes
120. Nelson Arangguren
121. Logun Clark
122. Jay Driver
123. Jonah Advincula
124. Geo Rivera Jr.
125. Zach Pettway
126. Yelferth Castillo
127. Romar Taveras
128. Heibert Silva
129. Yorfran John
130. Yanki Baptiste
131. Jose Pastrano
132. Brian Eichhorn
133. Connor Gillispie
134. Mason Hickman
135. Micael Ramirez
136. Angel Perez
137. Andrew Teaney
138. Carson Tucker
139. Richard Paz
140. Allan Hernandez
141. Sergio Morillo
142. Yordys Valdez
143. Johny Tincher
144. Tyler Brown
145. Elvis Jerez
146. Victor Planchart
147. Hugo Villalobos
148. Rodney Boone
149. Austin Peterson
150. Angel Zarate
151. Tyrese Turner
152. Pres Cavanaugh
153. Jeff Jasak
154. John Doxaxis
155. Carter Spivey