Baseball America, in it's 2024 Prospect Handbook, listed Cleveland as having the 19th best farm system in baseball. This is not a good place for Cleveland to be as it is an organization that relies on their farm system to provide key players for their ML team. Obviously, having such a young ML roster negatively impacts the prospect talent, likely leading to that low rating. Still, our pipeline needs to fill up quickly if we are going to compete.
So, now that we are a month into the minor league system and have just started the ACL season, let's take a look at how our minor league stars (top 30 prospects) are doing this year so far and who some of our lower-rated prospects are who are becoming fast risers, and, finally, which of our prospects whose early season struggles making them disappointing (so far) fast fallers are, using my pre-season rankings as a starting point for where they were in the prospect priority on opening day:
GOING DOWN
1. Chase DeLauter - Going from a slow start to the IL is not a good luck for his future value. The hope was that he might provide a post-deadline August spark for a struggling offense prepping for a September playoff push...not as a finished product but, rather, as a novelty item who would be good for my bum-of-the-month concept. Not that DeLauter, as our #1 prospect, is a bum. It's just that the hope of him having a huge start before the league figured him out (see Evan Carter, 2023). Not going to happen as he re-enters the injury zone.
3. Juan Brito - Up to this year he looked like a solid professional hitter who, literally, could take a BB on any pitcher at any time. However, in ST 2024 he started to show an impatience not seen before, at least by me. Whereas in 2023 ST they almost had to MAKE him swing since his plate discipline was so good and mid-/late-game ST pitching was so erratic that there was no need to swing in a lot of his ABs. Well, this year he is uncharacteristically struggling (.185 BA) while still showing good plate discipline (24 BB in 108 ABs), but, and most troubling, a penchant to strikeout (26 K). The eye test tells me he has a hole in his LH swing this year (low and inside) and he is a sucker for and can't get to balls there, leading to a .113 BA this year (.282 in 2023). He is crushing LHP to the tune of .393, an upturn from last year (.200 in 2023)
5. Angel Martinez - My pick to have a breakout year, he has been injured and will miss a good portion of this year, meaning he is going into the Chase DeLauter zone.
6. Alex Clemmey - An ERA north of 9 and plenty of walks means that Clemmey is not going to be rocketing through the farm system as expected. It even casts a pall on his future as a top prospect as you would have hoped that a HS pitcher this refined would AT LEAST have his pitching mechanics and control down pat by now. He is pitching like an organizational player on the verge of getting released, not like a top prospect in this organization, meaning it will likely be a slow and frustrating climb for him through to the majors.
7. Jose Tena - Started slow, caught fire, cooled off. Not the Tena we were hoping to see after the organization showed faith in him by gifting him his ML debut last year. The tools are there and he is clearly, to me, taking the game more seriously this year. Just that the performance has not caught up with his improved maturity level.
8. Joey Cantillo - Look, my position was that he was improving his command and control and all he needed was a solid year to push into the top 3 in our farm system. As he started the year on the IL, this threw a monkey wrench into those plans. Hope he gets out of DeLauter zone soon because, if not, his pivotal 2024 year will disappear and we will be looking at the first half, or more, of 2025 being his polishing period to make him even close to being ready for the majors.
20. Jhonkensy Noel - Poised for a breakout season, he is struggling MUCH more than you would expect for his 2nd year at AAA after the relative success he experienced last year. Time will tell if the warm weather brings him out of his slump but, right now, it looks like the people who minimized his potential in their ratings over the winter may have been correct.
21. Rafael Ramirez, Jr. - Lynchburg was a tough placement for so young a kid but, on a normal development path that got him to a good level BEFORE he was Rule 5-eligible, it was a good placement. He is sub-.200 so far and is struggling mightily on defense. Maybe things work out later in the year but don't discount the possibility that he ends up back in the ACL if he continues to struggle like he has so far.
22. Will Dion - He has struggled so far this year as batters just foul off his breaking stuff in the zone and foul off that same stuff if it is close, all because they know his 88-90 mph fastball can't beat them. Either he has reached his ceiling as a starter and needs to be moved to long relief where shorter stints might aid his fastball velo or, like last year when he was promoted to Akron, it may just take him a while to figure out how to get the more advanced AAA hitters out. Remember, this was an aggressive promotion for Dion this year so it could take him until June to adjust to AAA and become as dominant there as he was at lower levels since his drafting in 2021.
23. Dayan Frias - Aggressively pushed to Akron this year, he is really still struggling to hit AA pitching. This is a long-term play for Frias and I prefer not to look at his stats so far but, if you do, you do start to ask questions.
26. Jake Fox - Repeating Lake County when his stats said he should probably have been challenged with a promotion to Akron is bad enough. But hitting sub-.200 in his repeat year is problematic. Still time to turn it around but not what you would expect from a true prospect repeating a level just because there was no room on the roster for him at AA.
DOING HIS THING
2. Jaison Chourio - Clearly he is living up to the hype of my #2 ranking and is the poster child for "doing his thing". He is putting up professional ABs, showing speed, hitting for some power, hitting in the clutch and showing EXTREME plate discipline (22 BB/104 PA). He is doing it all.
4. Kyle Manzardo - Doing everything that could be expected from a very good prospect in his second year in AAA, He is ready to have the puppy fur knocked off of him in MLB and, today, he gets that opportunity.
9. Andrew Walters - Having your first real assignment after the draft being AA is daunting but he is doing his thing, overmatching unrefined AA hitters with his riding fastball. He looks ready for a promotion to AAA by the end of May if he continues this way and then we can likely, in a 1-month stint for Columbus, determine if he will be ready for a late-season promotion to Cleveland (if needed) or if he needs more minor league refining. Still, he has looked really good so far as a quick rising overdraft with a very high floor coming out of college as a reliever.
14. Angel Genao - Having a typical 2nd year in A ball performance you would expect from a young player in his teens still trying to figure out pro ball. That being said, he needs to be promoted to Lake County ASAP to see what we really have in him.
17. Ryan Webb - The bulldog, by college mascot and demeanor, is doing well at AA. His draftmates Bibee and Williams are both in the majors and even guys drafted higher than him, Nikhazy and Mace, are doing better at the same level. But Webb just needs to keep on keeping on and he is certainly doing that so far at Akron as, in most outings, he looks like he is controlling the narrative, not the hitters he faces.
19. Jonathon Rodriguez - Basically he is holding his own, making good contact and showing power. Still with a lot to work on to increase his power back up to previous levels WHILE keeping the same contact and lowered chase rates but still moving forward, which is a good thing.
25. Petey Halpin - His second year in AA is going well but he is a veteran at that level. After a hot start he is simply looking like a solid prospect at that level I would be expecting him to dominate but he is just treading water.
27. Jackson Humphries - Two weeks ago he would have been on the "Going Down" list but he is doing really well now and it looks like his early season struggles might just have been from the debilitating illness he suffered near the end of ST.
30. Tanner Burns - Battling some control issues but he still looks like the move to reliever can reasonably be considered a success and he is becoming a first tier depth option for middle relief in Cleveland.
31. Lenny Torres, Jr. - Doing exactly what I would have expected from him based on last year, the AFL and the 2024 ST, he is establishing himself as another priority relief prospect with the Guardians. Closers in the minors don't mean you will be a closer in the majors but, for a young guy like Torres, Jr., it means the likelihood of being a ML pitcher in a year or two looks more concrete.
FAST RISER
11. Ralphy Velazquez - As I had him rated lower than most because he is not catching any more, limiting a good portion of his hitting value, he is crushing the ball at A ball, reminiscent of Bobby Bradley. Let's hope the development continues as he appears to have excellent bat-to-ball skills and excellent present power which, combined, is a great combination for a young hitter.
15. Khalil Watson - I am going out on a limb with this guy but he is taking to being pushed to AA, showing all the plus skills he was drafted for. Still, maturity and focus are an issue although they appear, for the moment, to be moving in the right direction. Nof a finished product but, currently, one of the better development stories of the 2024 season.
16. Cade Smith - Just like I had Velasquez rated lower than most, I had Smith rated higher than most and he is even exceeding my expectations so far. Time will tell what we have in him but, right now, he is looking like he may have a Stephan-like first year.
29. Franco Aleman - How a guy who pitched 2 months of essentially scoreless ball at AA in 2023 can be considered a fast riser makes a good question. Still, to go from a mediocre career before Akron last year to a prospect who has held his own against AAA pitching after less than half a year at AA is impressive. His performance has become so standard now that he could, in a month, comfortably slip in to the "Doing His Thing" level, which would, to me, mean we are going to see him in Cleveland this year if the wheels would fall off or if relievers continued to get injured.
32. Doug Nikhazy - Hesitant to put him on this list with his injury and his history of control issues but his first couple of starts in AA were exactly what I would expect from a AA veteran: pure domination. So, there may be some hope there that he has turned the corner and will become another centerpiece (along with Bibee and Williams) for our 2021 draft.
33. CJ Kayfus - Still not a fan of his draft slot in 2022. Still not sure his domination at Lake County this year is anything more than an experienced hitter dominating inexperienced pitchers and still not sure if he has the power profile that has even a remote chance of being effect in the MLB. But you can't argue with the base performance he is setting in place to jump start the rest of his professional career.
34. Daniel Schneeman - OK, me putting him at 34 to start the season SHOULD mean that what he is doing in Columbus should come as no surprise, especially since he is repeating AAA. It's the fact that no one else had him as high as I did in their rankings. So, yes, his rise is still meteoric from his profile and his early career stats as a pro. I want to and expect to see him making his ML debut with the Guardians this year.
42. Alex Mooney - Clearly, Mooney is beginning his first full season with a bang. He is looking more like the late 2nd round projected prospect he was at draft time as compared to the over-slot mistake he looked like as a 7th round pick in the Guardians slap hitter-heavy 2023 draft.
99. Matt Wilkinson - The now-legendary Tugboat is becoming a household name around the minors, but 15Ks in 6 no-hit innings at any full-season level will do that for you. He is currently the fastest of all the fast risers, but starting at 99 and performing like he has will do that for you. And it wasn't like he was experienced or old when he was drafted and is just feasting on younger, less polished competition. There may be something real here and not just a real feel good story of LLWS hero turned into professional baseball player.
INCOMPLETE
10. Welbyn Francisca - Season just started so no new news.
12. Daniel Espino - Knowing he was out for the year I had already discounted his value.
13. George Valera - Just starting his season so hard to tell what we have yet...or even if he can stay healthy! Lots of hope from me, though, as we can use all the OF pop we can get.
18. Robert Arias - As the DSL season is not close to beginning, nothing to report here but we need a big, Francisca-like win with Arias to refill our prospect hitter pipeline.
24. Jacob Zibin - Still on the IL recovering from TJ surgery with no professional debut in sight, it is getting a bit problematic for him getting enough reps in to be promoted to Lynchburg after the ACL season ends at the end of June. Not the place to be, burning 2 of your Rule 5 years without throwing a pitch on a full season team.
28. Ethan Hankins - A guy who I expected to break out this year has had one outing this season and is back on the injured list. Not where you would want him to be at this point. Let's hope he can get back quickly as his biological clock for making the majors is ticking.
SUMMARY
With Manzardo, Wilkinson and Schneeman leading the way and Jaison Chourio and Ralphy Velasquez raking at Lynchburg, there is a lot good to say about our farm system. The one bad thing to say can be summed in one word: INJURIES. We have just had so many injuries, especially pitching injuries, it is really messing with our minor league pitching depth and may influence how we draft in 2024 in rounds 3-10, where we may take more college pitchers in a draft that isn't really heavy in college pitching. Still, you can never have enough pitching and we could also possibly take, and sign, more HS pitching prospect flyers like Zibin and Humphries if we have the draft bonus surplus I thin we are going to have. So, in the meantime, let's hope that some of the "Going Down" guys right the ship and get their prospect status back up, get the "Doing Their Thing" guys to become fast risers as the weather warms up and they get more comfortable with their surroundings and, finally, that our "Fast Risers" continue to rise fast, earning promotions and having success at the next level.
Our farm system does not truly look weaker than what I thought it was on opening day but it needs to get a lot stronger to be the pipeline that a low-budget, small-market team like Cleveland has to have. Let's keep our fingers crossed that all the stars align and this happens and, at the end of the season, we are looking at the Guardians having a top 5 farm system in all of baseball once again.
