Speculations about the hitting

For the first time (thanks to the pandemic) I have had the time to make a subscription to MLBTV to be worthwhile.  

So I have seen, in entirety, every Indians game this year.

It is great to see our pitchers do as well as they are.  

It is gut wrenching to see our hitters suck as bad as they do.

So what is going on with the hitters.

Some thoughts that come to mind:

• Just pressing because no one else is hitting and the season is short.
• Our hitters are just overrated and they suck
  
• Bad hitting coaches
• People not hitting where they are best at hitting
• Pandemic

Because of the pitching similarities to 1991 (a team that lost 101 games) the hitting situation scares me. So I have been thinking a lot about the hitting.

I will preface what I am saying by acknowledging that I was a terrible hitter...in little league.   The best 'hits' I got was when I leaned into one...with my butt.    So I have not expertise to lend to what I am saying.  That being said, here is what I am thinking.

1. I don't believe that our hitters are pressing.   I really don't think this is it.   This has gone on way too long for that to be true.  If you press you generally are not taking a lot of pitches.

2. I don't believe our hitters ALL suck.   Yes, Reyes did not hit well when he came here last year and Domingo Santana, if you take away his first 60 games last year, was just mediocre.  Luplow was really just above average last year but, previously, he sucked so his start could be a little rust and a lot just that he sucks.  Leon sucks but we know he would have.  So maybe some of this is that they suck.  We get that Allen and Johnson could have this kind of start and that Zimmer is doing very similar to every year but his first year.  I think Carlos Santana is just struggling because Lindor is struggling as are Reyes and Domingo Santana.   So he doesn't have to get fastballs.   Basically, pitchers can pitch around him because there is no one on base in front of him and the people hitting behind him are not dangerous.   Thus all the walks he is getting early AND the lack of HRs and BA as when he does swing he isn't swinging at pitches he can feast on.

3. I really was, and maybe still am, thinking it is that we have bad hitting coaches.  Part of the rip on Tito in Boston was it got to the point that the players were running the team.   This is not a dig at Tito but, rather, he had veterans and he trusted them to prepare correctly and, frankly, they were probably taking advantage of that situation.   If the same attitude exists here AND the hitting coaches are not really that experienced, maybe the lack of an unbiased, quality voice is keeping these guys from getting in their groove.   Maybe.  It would not be the first time I have seen that with a team and not even the first time I have seen that with the Indians.

4. It has crossed my mind several times that Lindor is hitting pathetically because he is hitting 3rd.   It looks like he is lost and pressing.   While Ramirez has hit well at times, he is still hitting a lot of line drives foul and is not producing in the clutch as he should.   

So, you could easily say that it is a combination of the first 4 things.   Hernandez is doing what he should do as a leadoff hitter.   Maybe all the other guys are failing because each of them has an issue.   Or......

4. Maybe it is due to the pandemic.    As I think Yogi Berra said, baseball is 90% mental and the other half physical.   Despite the bad math, if you head is not in the game, you won't do well.   I really think that if players are worried about their health and how it impacts their future in the game and their ability to both live AND be millionaires after this season, maybe their head is not in the game as much as it needs to be.   Picture Lindor if he wasn't enjoying the game like he did in the past.   Now it becomes a grind, looking over his shoulder to see who may be infecting him and then having it snowball into a hitting slump.   

In my opinion it is not one thing.   But the thing that comes to mind more often than anything is that a large part of the hitting struggles could be the pandemic.

Why doesn't this impact pitchers?  I think pitching is more mechanical and the pitchers count on the catchers and the catchers can focus on their defense.  The fact that our pitchers are successful with Beau Taylor catching as well as with Leon or Perez tells me that pitchers may be more immune to being defocused by the pandemic.   Maybe.

Well, time to watch again.  Hopefully whatever reason it is, the hitters get over it today...and we don't have a repeat of 1991.

New name for Cleveland's major league baseball team

OK, so I need 5 minutes to decompress in light of COVID and everything else going on in my life, I wanted to give my thoughts about the various names that have been proposed.  So let's dig in:

Cleveland Naps - I like to look at names as if I was from another city and didn't care about the back story so much.   That is, I am taking the name at face value.   Thinking about it that way the Naps is not a very good name.  We all know what a nap is: "a short sleep, especially during the day".  That doesn't sound like a competitive name.   Who would be the mascot: Snoozy?  I thought of partnering with Disney but I am a little concerned that using the name of a dwarf might be problematic and insensitive relative to short people.   I just don't see this being a name I would respect if I was from a different city/part of the country.

Cleveland Rockers - Again, the back story is very understandable for the average Clevelander but, to me, this doesn't read well for someone NOT from Cleveland.  My image is someone in a rocking chair.   I could be acceptable with this one but I don't see it as the best option.

Cleveland Rocks - This is my personal favorite.   I think that it allows for marketing and even a Fantastic Four-like mascot.   I think, while there may be some joking about the relative intelligence of professional athletes, I think a rock is a pretty tough thing.  Plus, if our favorite college football team could be a type of nut, I think a Rock outdoes a nut.  Plus it brings memories of Drew Carey's TV show which does have national exposure.

Cleveland Spiders - I am not for this one at all.   Spiders are scary but not in an intimidating sense.   Plus the Marketing and mascot aspects of this would be problematic.

Cleveland Midges - While this one can bring a chuckle from Indians fans/Yankees haters, it doesn't pass any marketing or mascot hurdles and it may be misinterpreted by little people to be problematic.

Cleveland Fellers - While this honors the name of the favorite son of Indians baseball, it means nothing out of town AND would be really hard to get name recognition which could hurt the brand marketing.   However, given the White Sox, Red Sox, Reds, etc., this one would be acceptable.

Cleveland Pioneers - Again, nothing wrong with this but it is sort of old-sounding.

Cleveland Force or Cleveland Crunch or Cleveland Gladiators - Names of other, defunct teams in other sports in the Cleveland area.   Of course all of these are fine as good sports teams names but as Star Wars is overdone and Gladiators may infuriate people (most of us) who didn't like using human murder as entertainment, I might go with Cleveland Crunch

So, for me, we put the following up to the Cleveland fans to vote on:

•  Cleveland Rocks
• Cleveland Crunch
• Cleveland Fellers

I am really afraid that the Fellers would win emotionally even though the Marketing might be severely hurt by this nickname.

Any thoughts

What is the 60 person roster going to look like?

Wow, isn't that a weird question but we are in the most dangerous times in most of our lifetimes, aren't we?

I guess the answer to that question is based on what the EXACT rules are.   For example, do you have to invite your entire 40 man roster plus 20 non-roster invitees?  Can your 60 man be made up of 30 non-roster invitees?  Does the integrity of the 40 man roster still matter?  That is, if you add a non-roster invitee do you have to take someone off your 40-man and is that removed player subject to waivers?

Without answers to all those detailed questions it is hard to gauge who the Indians would invite.  

Plus, will they now sign more free agents to NRI invitee contracts?  Will they sign any of the remaining free agents?

If MLB Traderumors list is to be believed there are still PLENTY of free agents out there who might be helpful to the Indians.

Plus, will the Indians take my advice and sign 1 or 2 undrafted amateur college pitchers to major league deals?

I will be back with an analysis later tonight of what I think the roster will/should look like.

Models for the Indians to follow in signing non-drafted free agents

We covered in most previous post what I thought was going to happen in the signing of guys who were eligible but were not drafted in the 5 round draft last week.  

So far this has played out somewhat as expected.   Two teams to take a look at that I consider good models of what the Indians should be doing are the Phillies and the Royals.  Here is what Baseball America lists as the players signed by each team:

Philadelphia

• Jake McKenna, LHP, Ocean City (N.J.) HS | Scouting Report (No. 434 on BA 500)
• Jordan Fowler, LHP, Central Missouri
• Sam Jacobsak, RHP, Northeastern
• J.P. Woodward, LHP, Lafayette
• Noah Skirrow, RHP, Liberty | Scouting Report (No. 249 on BA 500)
• Chase Antle, RHP, Coastal Carolina | No. 13 on top undrafted seniors list
• Billy Sullivan, RHP, Delaware

Kansas City

• Saul Garza, C/DH, Louisiana State | Link | Scouting Report (No. 379 on BA 500)
• Kale Emshoff, C, Arkansas-Little Rock | Link | Scouting Report (No. 174 on BA 500)
• John McMillon, RHP, Texas Tech | Scouting Report (No. 357 on BA 500) | No. 3 on top undrafted seniors list
• A.J. Block, LHP, Washington State (No. 20 on Baseball America's top undrafted seniors list)
• Tucker Bradley, OF, Georgia | Scouting Report (No. 317 on BA 500)
• Chase Wallace, RHP, Tennessee | Scouting Report (No. 440 on BA 500)

Philadelphia focused exclusively on pitchers, signing 7, including one HS pitcher.  Note that 3 of the players they signed were at least rated by BA, although their rating would have made them anywhere from 7th-10fth round picks.   

Kansas City, on the other hand, signed a mix of 3 pitchers and 3 position players.   Note that each one of them was ranked in some fashion by Baseball America.   One of KC's signees was projected to go in the first 5-6 rounds.

A combination of what I said the other day about signing guys to major league deals and what KC and Philadelphia did is what I was/am looking for from the Indians: Lots of pitchers and some position players if relatively highly ranked with the total number of signees being 10-15 with 1-2 of them being highly ranked college pitchers being placed immediately on the 40-man roster.  

The Indians tend to play these things tight to their vest and have a plan as to when they want these signings announced.   For us fans that part is nerve-wracking, especially when you see other teams signing bunches of players early.

Draft 2020 Analysis

The 2020 draft is over.   Here are my thoughts on the Indians' draft.

1. MONEY - I don't think there is a better team in baseball at understanding the finances of the draft than the Indians.   They always seem to have enough money to sign the players they want and always seem to find the gems late in the draft that other teams can't find.

So, when you take a look at their draft picks you see a familiar pattern.   You see picks that will save you some money and players drafted later on who will require above slot bonuses.

This is not like other years, however.   If you fail to sign even one player from this draft your draft crop takes a hit as there are only 6 players you drafted.  

2. PRESENT AND FUTURE VALUE - The Indians had only 6 picks but they found a way to help themselves in the near future and give themselves hope for the more distant future.  

3. MIDDLE INFIELDERS:  The Indians drafted2 high school shortstops, or 1/3 of their selections.  

4. COLLEGE PITCHABILITY PITCHERS: The Indians drafted 3 college pitchers and all of them are the pitchability variety.  They have had success in the past and they went to that well again.

5. WILD CARD: The Indians drafted high school outfielder Petey Halpin in the 3rd round.  This is the riskiest pick in the draft for the Indians.   He will likely require an overslot bonus and the Indians track record in drafting high school outfielders is, well, pathetic.   So, we have a guy who is a risky selection in the two biggest risk areas: cost and floor/ceiling ratio.

6. THE REST OF THE "DRAFT" IS STILL TO COME:  Yes, there is more to this draft than just the players who were actually drafted.   Teams can sign as many draft-eligible, undrafted players as they want, starting on 9 am on Sunday, June 14th...providing they don't sign any of them for more than $20,000.  Here is the way I see the remaining groups of players left in this draft:

a. College seniors - I think this will be business as usual as I think a number of these guys will sign.   I don't think the numbers will be as high as normal years, however, as there is no baseball to be played this year so roster filler/organizational players are not really needed.  Still, college seniors are used to signing for peanuts and I think their leverage is lower than normal as they probably know teams are on tighter draft budgets than normal and they may not even get that $1,000 they have gotten in the past.

b. Unsigned college junior (or RS sophomore) pitchers in the top 200 prospects - I think we could see a number of  these types of pitchers, signed in this group.   College pitchers tend to be closer to the majors than college hitters and top prospects will even be closer and I think teams will try to leverage whatever they can find to sign these guys.  Here is one way: Sign them to major league contracts.   Guys on the 40 man roster make about $45,000 a year compared to $14,000 for minor leaguers not on the roster.   Plus there is talk about having 50 guys on the roster for the season meaning these guys could get ML coaching and a bigger than normal chance to play in the majors this year.   Additionally, putting one of these guys on the 40 man roster benefits the player as it potentially starts two "clocks".   First, if the player is not ready for the majors the team will have to burn one of their three options on that player if they send him to the minors.   Thus he will likely reach the point of having to be kept on the ML roster or DFA'd sooner than the average prospect.  Second, if he plays in the majors it starts his free agent clock.    I really think teams will see the advantages here outweigh the downsides.  I think teams can really get value here if they are just willing to gamble on their development staff.

c. college junior pitchers outside the top 200 prospects - Many of these guys will just go back to school for their senior year unless they are the typical late-round college junior pitcher who is just done with college and sees minor league baseball as his lottery ticket.  

d.  college junior hitters - Like the college junior pitchers outside the top 200, I think ALL draft eligible college hitters will return to college unless they are organizational filler level players.   Hitters take longer to develop and I don't see any team taking a chance on a college hitter by placing him on their 40 man roster and I don't see any college hitter who is any good at all settling for $20,000 and $14,000 a season when he can go back to school and maybe make $200,000 as a top 10-round, senior-signing bonus pool saver next year.

e. junior college players - I think few, if any, of these guys will sign unless they are the end-of-the-draft, organizational filler types.

f. High school players - I don't think you will see ANY of these guys sign.   There is no need and none are ready to be rostered on the ML roster.  Most if not all the talented ones can go to college.   I think you might see a good number of the talented ones go to junior college if they had really intended to sign but a good number of the talented high school players with big time college commitments will honor those commitments.   The only ones I see signing are the same type of low-level high school hitters who don't really want to go to college and who expected a small bonus in the first place.

 OK, with all this said what do I think the Indians will do?  Well, for years the Indians have said that their Latin American scouting program is built on outworking other teams as they don't have the money to outspend other teams.   With any luck they will do this again in this rush for undrafted amateurs which looks and feels to me a lot like a typical Latin signing year.  What will they look for?  The Indians have a great track record of finding quality relievers late in the draft.  They also signed a quality catcher in Roberto Perez later.   On the other hand they have not had good luck signing college position players or high school hitters late in the draft.   I don't see them signing a lot of guys but I do see them signing 15-20 guys, mostly pitchers and catchers.   I hope they have the guts and are able to outwork other teams to find some of those college junior pitchers who will sign for $20,000 while signing a major league contract.    


7.  SUMMARY - I really can't do a summary of this draft until all the undrafted players are signed.   Still, just looking at their actual draft picks you have to say they did really well IF they can sign all these guys.    I don't know if any team in this draft did as well as the Indians from top to bottom.   If they can sign a few quality undrafted players I think they could have the best draft in baseball this year.

Besides no fans, what will baseball look like if we play this year?

Thinking about this last night.

First, prayers to all those being impacted by COVID-19.

As far as baseball goes here are some thoughts and questions:

•  How do you handle the injury list? The average length of time to recovery for COVID-19 is 2 weeks for mild  and 3-6 weeks for severe cases.   Adding 72 hours to the end of the disease per CDC and that means that the player would not be able to play baseball for 17-45 days.  The rules would have to allow for a lot more non-baseball injuries and not force all those people to the 60-day DL.  
• There might be wholesale changes in a roster if a hotspot occurred.   As has been postulated, you would need AT LEAST a 37 player roster and maybe up to 60 players assuming that you could have anywhere from 50-100% of your roster having COVID-19 during an outbreak.  That doesn't even injuries and other forms of leave away from baseball.
• Bench personnel might be required to wear masks all the time and what has become a tradition (pitchers and catchers holding their gloves over their mouths so they can't be lipread, might be mandatory.  
• Baseball, itself, has to remain somewhat normal.   For example, are we going to require homeplate umpires and catchers to wear shields over their facemasks?  What about batters using helmets similar to what they use in little league, with a face shield? 
• Will pitchers be able to go to their mouths at all?
•  Will batters, catchers, etc. be able to spit?  Can you spit out the sunflower shells?  Can there be communal pin tar?  Will each pitcher have his own rosin bag?
• Will teams have the handshake/high 5 lines after games?

NOTE: I guess a lot of this will come from the continuous COVID-19 testing that will have to be done so maybe the last three points will be non-issues.  Still tests aren't perfect and there is some thought that you can be infected before the test will show you are infected so who knows.

• How will watch parties be handled if no fans can't go to games?  
• None of this even covers whether baseball-related injuries will be greater this year because of the change to the playing season.

In any case, with or without fans, if the game can be played safely, it would be great to see baseball again.

Stay safe out there

Just a note to wish all of you the best (especially you Indians fans out there).   Please try to stay safe!   Help and pray for each other and do your best to have good personal hygiene and germ control.   If you know someone who is elderly or has underlying respiratory issues, please stay in contact with them as this virus is especially hard on and dangerous for them.

May God bless all of you!