Trade Deadline Post - My Thoughts

 Let's start off by saying I am a prospect hugger.  Can't help it because I don't trust this front office to get equal or needed value back in trades.  I just don't.  Plus, I have been a hardcore baseball fan for almost 60 years and, during most of that time, prospects were the only thing to cling to if you were a Cleveland fan.

So, as I looked at trades leading up to the deadline this year, I wondered what the Guardians would do.  Now, the Guardians have RARELY made a bad deal when they were buyers at the deadline because, frankly, they hardly are ever buyers at the deadline.  They tend to be neutral or sellers.  

Still, historically, their last big WS run was catalyzed by the acquisition of Andrew Miller.  At the time I thought it was a high price to pay for a failed starter, non-closer reliever.  I just didn't see it. However, obviously, I was wrong.

So, here I was, waiting for the first shoe to drop and then the second and so on.  And the Guardians didn't disappoint, sort of.  Let's take a look at the two trades they made and the trade deadline, itself, for context.

Lane Thomas Trade

First the Guardians trade three prospects, Alex Clemmey, Rafael Ramirez, Jr. and Jose Tena for 1+ years of Lane Thomas, a RHH RFer with speed and some power from Washington.  I had already suggested trading for Thomas last winter after his career year.  I thought this price for Thomas in a down year for him was too steep.   However, as I thought about it, it probably wasn't that steep.   You see, the prospects we traded had warts, maybe some of the biggest warts in our system.  Here is my assessment of those prospects:

• Jose Tena - Tena has broken out this year at AAA.  The only issue is that this is in Columbus and a hitter's power is generally not nearly as good as it appears when he plays for Columbus.  Plus, Tena does not pass the eye test or the analytics test as far as defense goes.  To me, his range at SS is limited and I really don't see him fitting at 3B or 2B.  So he is the typical eye candy prospect who looks much better than what he will turn out in the majors. 
• Alex Clemmey - I have already commented that it looks like Clemmey will be a longer-term development project than I anticipated when he was drafted in 2022.  He is far from refined in either command or control and, if he doesn't fix that, he will struggle to move up the minor league ladder.  The potential is there and thus the high prospect rating but I see him as developing slowly
• Rafael Ramirez, Jr - He has struggled mightily on offense and defense this year at Lynchburg.  He seems unrefined on both sides of the ball and, to me, is the biggest of lottery tickets at this point.

So we gave up three prospects for Thomas but the two at Lynchburg were high ceiling, low floor prospects and the one at Columbus was a low ceiling, high floor utility infield type.  So, in hindsight, this was exactly the type of trade we should have made and Thomas was a gamble but, in our window of competitiveness with our ML team, none of these guys were likely going to impact the Guardians ML team in any significant way.  Whereas, Thomas can impact the team during that window.

Alex Cobb Trade

Cleveland traded for starting pitcher Alex Cobb who has not started a game this year due to injury..  Cleveland sent Jacob Bresnahan and a PTBNL to San Francisco.  

How this trade turns out will depend on whether and how Cobb pitches, which may be tied to the quality of the PTBNL San Francisco eventually receives.    

SUMMARY OF CLEVELAND TRADES

Cleveland traded a couple of recent HS graduate starting pitchers who are or were becoming good prospects.  This was after drafting FIVE HS starting pitchers in the 2024 draft.   I am sure this year's draft had a lot to do with who Cleveland felt they could trade as up to 9 HS pitchers, including Clemmey and Bresnahan could have been ready for the ML team at approximately the same time and this would have created real problems in protecting these players from the Rule 5 when they were eligible.  Plus, both Clemmey and Bresnahan were at the peak of their value in the organization at the time they were traded and, frankly, Tena was, too.  

REST OF THE TRADE DEADLINE ACTIVITY

As with all trade deadlines, some players were overvalued and some were undervalued.  Some veterans were traded for suspect minor league prospects and some were traded for more substantial prospects.  As is usually the case, there was generally no apparent rhyme or reason for why certain veterans and certain prospects involved in these trades were rated so highly by the team that traded for them.  An overview of the deadline deals leads me to believe that this year was neither a seller's or buyer's market.  It was just a typical (in the past 3 years) deadline trading period.  So no one should have expected the sellers to make a killing in their trading.  

The only thing I will comment further on is that relief pitchers seemed to bring a good return in this period.  I think we may have missed an opportunity to trade Scott Barlow, Nick Sandlin, Eli Morgan or Peter Strzelecki or even James Karinchak.  I think we have a large excess of relief pitchers and could have traded some of that depth for a good prospect haul, based on what other teams were getting for their relief pitchers.

In closing, I think the Guardians improved their team at the deadline.  On the other hand, I am not sure if these moves moved the needle on their competitiveness this year.  Thomas gave them stability and a RH bat in RF.  Cobb gave them the hope of a solid starting pitcher down the stretch if he is healthy.  The addition of these two guys means that major leaguers will lose their jobs and maybe even be DFA'd.  One should always include these players in the cost of obtaining new players like Thomas and Cobb.  

And, pending the PTBNL announcement, the cost in prospects did not seem to damage the farm system.  So, in that aspect, it was a successful if not bountiful deadline deal period for the Guardians.  That should not be surprising to fans as Chris Antonetti said before the trade deadline, that the players who were on the team at the time would largely be the ones who will be on the team down the stretch.

Let's hope he is talking about CURRENT ML players AND current ML-ready prospects as I think we have not yet reached our final roster as we haven't seen Manzardo a second time or Brito the first time, or any of the AAA or AA pitchers that are having great years.