2024 Draft - Part 25 - Saturday, July 13th - Final Thoughts Before THE Most Important Draft in Guardians History!

Yeah, I know.  Melodramatic!  

But this draft is historic.  

• In Part 11 of this series I detailed that we have more money to spend (almost $20 million, counting the 4.999% overage) than any team has EVER had to spend on a draft.  

• We have the #1 pick in the summer, first year player draft for the first time IN CLEVELAND BASEBALL HISTORY.

• Our organizational prospect ranking has dropped to the bottom half of the teams in baseball.  We need a huge influx of talent to move in the top 10 which is where, as a small market team, we should always be.  The need for that influx may increase if (as we should) use prospect capital at the trade deadline.  So we need to have this draft be a big success.

• In Part 24 I wrote about the last 3 Guardians drafts.  Here is a summary of this post:

• 2021 - In what could turn out to be the best draft in Cleveland history, 11 out of 21 picks were top 250 draft prospects (MLB Pipeline top 250 draft prospects); 7 out of those 11 were ranked as better than the slot they were drafted.  19 were college players (18 pitchers) and 2 were HS players.  They signed all 21 of their picks.  2 of those picks are currently in the majors and 3 more are in the Guardians top 30 prospects.

• 2022 - 7 of their picks were ranked draft prospects.   4/7 were ranked better than the slot they were drafted in.  They signed all 21 of those draft picks.  3 are currently in the Guardians top 30 prospect

• 2023 - 9 picks were ranked draft prospects. 4/9 were ranked better than their draft slot. They signed 19/21 with the two unsigned players being HS pitchers who they couldn't sign because they gave Alex Mooney a larger-than-anticipated bonus. 6 are currently in their top 30 prospects

• The most successful of these drafts appears to be the 2021 draft which coincides with the draft where they drafted the most ranked players and the most ranked players who were ranked higher than their draft slot. It also is the draft of those 3 where they drafted the highest percentage (by far) of college players.   The 2nd best draft of these 3 appears to be the 2023 draft where they drafted 9 ranked players.  It should be noted that when the next version of their top 30 prospects comes out, guys like Davenport, Nikhazy, Mace, Webb and Denholm, all 2021 draftees, should be on it as those guys appear to be just outside of their top 30 right now and are all having great years so far.

• In Part 10 I wrote how 2024 was the year of the draft-eligible sophomore.  With more kids starting college at age 19 and with the COVID year still having an impact on players being red-shirted in 2022, there are a lot of guys this year who have not completed their 3rd year of college eligibility, yet are still draft eligible.  There is easily 10% of players in the top 100 and the top 300 players in this draft who are sophomore eligible.  Like Alex Mooney last year, these players will likely require significantly higher bonuses than what their draft slot would dictate.  This situation would favor teams like the Guardians who will have a lot of money to play with in the draft.  I think, instead of looking for the brass ring, they should focus their excess draft budget on draft-eligible sophs.  These are experienced college kids who should get to the majors more quickly, unlike a guy like Alex Clemmey, a HS pitcher drafted overslot early in the 2023 draft, who will take extra time to get to the majors with the accompanying extra risk.

•  It seems like years since we won the #1 overall pick for this draft by winning the lottery in Dec. 2023.  I think it is important to remember that this draft was considered very weak at the time, with the top 3 prospects being no better than the #7 prospect drafted in 2023.  Even today experts are saying that after the first 10-12 guys, this draft is very weak.  My point is that there are no brass ring guys (like HS stud pitchers who have dropped in the draft due to their bonus demands).  Due to the weakness of the draft these guys APPEAR better than they really are because you are looking at them compared to other weak draft prospects.  The smart play, IMO, is Bazz, solid college pitchers and spending your extra money on draft-eligible sophomores, 3rd day high school P flyers (like Bresnahan, Humphries, Zibin, Zinn) and 3rd day injured college pitchers.

• As I detailed previously, in the last 5 drafts (excluding the 2020 COVID year draft) 4 of 5 teams holding the 1-1 pick have selected either the top ranked, or 2nd ranked draft prospect.  In the 2021 draft the Pirates selected Henry Davis, the #5 draft prospect, in order to save money to spend later in the draft (which they used in the 3rd round on Bubba Chandler, currently the #63 ranked prospect in baseball).  Davis is currently in AAA and holds a sub-Mendoza ML batting line. The #1 prospect in that draft was Marcelo Mayer, who is currently the #10 prospect in all of baseball.  The 1-1 pick in 2023 was Paul Skenes (again to Pittsburgh) who will be the 2024 NL All-star game starting pitcher.

• In recent drafts the Guardians have drafted the following HS/non-4-year college pitchers in early rounds of the draft: Daniel Espino, Brady Aiken, Alex Clemmey.  In later rounds they have drafted guys like Matt Wilkinson (JUCO), Jackson Humphries, Jacob Bresnahan, Magnus Ellerts (JUCO) and Jacob Zibin.  So, while it is still possible their early round HS/JUCO picks may turn out, you could make a case that drafting HS/JUCO pitchers late in the draft presents similar risk/reward to drafting them higher.

• As the final points here: 

• I am still for drafting Travis Bazzana at 1-1. His work ethic, power potential and hitting attributes make him an ideal fit for Cleveland's system.  If he accepts $9.3 million, I don't see us drafting anyone else.

•  I can see the case for drafting JJ Wetherholt as he was the top draft prospect in January but the question marks about current and future hamstring problems.  I can't even begin to discuss a discount for Wetherholt if Bazzana will accept $9.3 million due to the Henry Davis effect.  If what happened to the Pirates happens to the Guardians if they draft JJ (both Davis and Wetherholt are #5 prospects in their respective draft class) this is something that would be difficult for the Guardians to recover from.

• I could also make a case to draft Charlie Condon but, as a draft-eligible sophomore, I think he will price himself out of consideration at 1-1 and would only draft him if he would accept $9.3 million, my top figure for Bazzana, as well.  If it was between Bazzana and Condon at $9.3 million, I would likely have to flip a coin.

So, in summary, strategy-wise I think the Guardians should draft Bazzana @ 1-1, college pitchers at 36 and 48, then take draft-eligible sophomores in the 3rd and 4th rounds, switching back to college pitchers in rounds 5-10, except for one college senior hitter in round 9.  On the 3rd day of the draft I would focus on HS pitchers and hurt college pitchers, throwing in a senior-sign college outfielder and a JUCO draftee who we control until the next draft and maybe sprinkle in 1-2 draft-eligible sophomores..

If the Guardians get cute with this draft it could be a disaster.  And, having gotten the gift of the #1pick and the largest draft bonus pool in baseball history, all they have to do is be solid and pick a solid player at each slot, just like they did in 2021.  Follow the lead of 2021 (draft ranked players, draft college players, draft guys who are ranked better than their draft slots) as well as drafting HS pitchers late, they could have an epic draft that could even eclipse their 2021 draft as the best draft in Cleveland baseball history.

I hope they do this as Cleveland, as a small market team, really needs them not to screw this up just because they want to prove how smart they are...and that they are smarter than the rest of baseball.  Don't get cute.  Be solid.  We are all rooting for you, just like we root for the players you draft and sign.