Tuesday, July 16, 2024

2024 Draft -Part 31 - The Sun Has Come Up On The Third Day Of The Draft

 OK, after a night to think about it here are my thoughts: 

  • The Guardians' stated goal entering the draft was to collect as much talent as possible.  I think, in their own way, have done that.  Here's how
    • They were able to draft 4 outstanding HS pitching prospects in the first 10 rounds. 
    • They have the most bonus pool in MLB draft history meaning that they also have the largest 4.99% overage of any team in history.  
    • One of the raps against drafting HS pitchers is that they want large bonuses to keep them from going to college.  NIL money has just increased that perception.
If the Guardians have found a way to identify the RIGHT HS pitchers and know their bonus demands well enough, they should know that they have enough money, thanks to the huge bonus + overage pool they have, to sign these guys.  If the Guardians drafted these guys I have to assume they can sign them all.  I have to believe them because, as I said in Part 30, if they can't, this draft could fall apart like a house of cards and create one of the worst disasters in Cleveland draft history.

So, assuming they have drafted signable guys, they have, in sort of an unorthodox manner, accomplished, so far, their stated goals. They have more and, higher ranked top 50 and top 100 prospects in the first 10 rounds than in any previous Guardians draft, dating all the way back to 2017.  

They have accomplished, in their own way, their stated goal, IF they can sign these draft choices.  And we still have one day and 10 picks to go.

So, while I curb my enthusiasm for Day 3 with the knowledge we have used a lot of our bonus pool + overage budget already and there may not be any top prospects (or even HS flyer picks) picked on Tuesday by the Guardians, who they do pick, if they do it judiciously with college pitchers and position players who are talented and will sign for reasonable bonuses, they could have created the best group of prospects they have ever collected in one draft.  Then it will be a race to see if they can develop them.

Now, I am not saying I would have gone this direction and Cleveland tried this in 2001 with disastrous results but they were novel in their approach and used their unusually large resources in the best way they could have been used.  Let's hope it works because Cleveland needs this to work.

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