2024 Draft - Part 32 - Day 3 Results and Initial Thoughts (To Be Updated During The Day)

Day 3 is never that exciting and it is even less exciting if you don't have any, or much, bonus pool money left.  Heading into day 3 I think it is generally recognized by the internet draft and draft bonus pool 'experts' that they have exhausted their bonus pool + overage amount of $19.2 million. 

But there is still talent out there on Day 3 as evidenced by Guardians previous drafts where they got, in rounds 11-20, Jacob Bresnahan (2023), Magnus Ellerts and Shawn Rapp (2022), Hunter Stanley and Trenton Denholm (2021) and Matt Waldren, Kevin Kelly and Nick Mikolajchak (2019), among others.  There is talent there just waiting to be mined!

So, in my mind, day 3 should have been drafting college pitchers and hitters who would sign for $150,000 or less and maybe, as I have been saying for a while, a guy who plans to go to a JUCO this fall who we can sign to a bonus all the way up to next year's draft.

The guys that came to mind from my research were:

Mason Koch, RHRP, Soph, Creighton (in transfer portal)

Micah McDowell, OF, Senior, Oregon State

Owen Boerema, RHSP, Senior, Kansas State

John Bay, RHH OF, Senior, Austin Peay

Pierce Coppola, LHP, Junior, U. of Florida

Matt Willadsen, RHSP, Senior, NC State

Let's see who we ended up with:

Round 11 - Garrett Howe - SS - Samford U.  - A senior sign, more walks than Ks, OPS 1.054, 23 SB.  Definitely his breakout season this year as he established career highs in almost every category. 

NOTE: While we all look at draft budgets, remember the dollars spent in rounds 11-12 are still dollars.  Don't be surprised to see the Guardians draft more college seniors today than normally to save some money on the last day.   It's not money against their draft pool I am talking about.  It's just money.

NOTE: Trey Gregory-Alford (#105), my pick in my first mock draft to fall significantly and for us to take, finally went in the 11th round to the Angels.  Rounds 11 and 12 are where teams tend to pick guys their strategy may not have allowed them to select in rounds 1-10.  

NOTE; In round 11, there were 2 players ranked in MLB Pipeline's top 200 draft prospects, 10 college seniors, 12 college juniors, 6 high school players and 2 JUCO players.

Round 12 - Sean Hepner - RHP - U. British Columbia - Another senior sign, with control issues, he may fit the mold of some of the other max effort college pitchers they have selected earlier in the dratt.

NOTE: 4 MLB Pipeline top 250 players were selected in this round.

NOTE: 17 college juniors, 6 college seniors, 1 JUCO player and 6 High School Players were selected in this round.

Round 13 - Bennett Thompson - C - Oregon - A college junior, he also played 1B and RF. He appears to be an organizational catcher (like Johny Tincher last year) looking at his stats.  College catchers are sought after in this organization to help our young pitchers develop.  

NOTE: One MLB Pipeline top 250 player was selected in this round.  As we get to round 13 and beyond, generally less MLB Pipeline top 250 prospects get drafted.  Generally, but not always, when a team takes a flyer on a HS player who has dropped do we see those players selected.  This is also when you see teams start taking college position players to act as organizational players to fill out their minor league rosters.  I was wondering how this would go with the new 165 player roster limits.  I anticipated a lot of college catchers and college pitchers going in the teens to fill out rosters with less college infielders and OFers beccause those skill sets can and are provided a lot by international signees.  

NOTE: Round 13 had the first college sophomore selected on Day 3. I was hoping the Guardians would go to this well on Day 3.

NOTE; 21 pitchers and 9 position players were selected in this round.

Round 14 - Ryan Cesarini - OF - St. Joseph's University - Another college junior, Cesarini is a bat control guy with some speed.  Frankly, I don't know what it is that Micah McDowell hasn't been selected. He seems, statistically, to be far superior to a number of college OFers selected on Day 3 and he hit close to .400 for Oregon State this year.  Maybe he has said he doesn't intend to play pro baseball?

NOTE: Tanner Witt, of the baseball family Witt, who I wanted to pick in the 10th round in 2023 after he didn't pitch last year, was finally drafted in the 14th round by the Mets.  I still like him and wish the Guardians had taken a flyer on him..

Round 15 - Connor Whitaker RHP - Florida State U. - A college junior, his stats look mediocre except for the fact that he appears to have excellent control.

NOTE As we head to the break, the Guardians appear to just be drafting organizational players.  We have only had 2 college pitchers selected with the other 3 being position players.   It appears that this year they are more about organizational filler players than in previous year.

Round 16 - Jacob Remily - RHP - HS - Hawaii - Just like in previous years, the Guardians are selecting a HS pitcher.  Don't know if this is a backup plan or if he really wants to just turn pro and the Guardians are offering him slot or $50,000 above slot.  Interesting that we are 6 picks in and only have 2 pitchers on Day 3.  Maybe they have enough organizational pitchers in their system backlogged after the last 3 drafts.  Looking at the LC and Lynchburg rosters, that may be the case.  Still interested to see if they go for any draft-and-follows (who don't count against their organizational max number of minor leaguers). who they have until next draft to sign.

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NOTE: As I am thinking about guys who have been selected on Day 3 in previous drafts and had successful ML careers, Albert Pujols came to mind. Just then, the Cardinals drafted another junior college third baseman, Deniel Ortiz.

Round 17 - Logan McGuire - RHP - Georgia Tech - Another college junior, he had an 8.91 ERA this season.  Hmmmm.

NOTES:  Under the heading of "I didn't know this could happen", The Royals selected a 19 year old, Dane Burns, a 19 year old without any college affiliation.  The only pitching that Baseball Reference notes for him is pitching 5 games of summer ball this year in the New England Collegiate League.   I guess if you never went to college after HS you can be selected at any time.

NOTES: The Marlins selected Micah McDowell from Oregon State. He was one of my favorites.  He played with Bazzana, hit .382 with an OPS of 1.182 and he wasn't worth the Guardians selecteing him?  I don't get it. But obviously other teams felt the same way as the Guardians did!

Round 18 - Izaak Martinez - LHP - UC San Diego -  A senior, he had a 1.85 ERA this season.

Round 19 - Cam Schuelke - RHP - Mississippi St. - A senior, he had a 4.32 ERA this season.  More importantly, he has pitched well in the Cape Cod League the last 3 summers, including this year.

Round 20 - Cam Walty - RHP - Arizona - A senior, I wonder if Francona had anything to do with this selection as that is where he lives and I am sure he goes to a lot of Arizona baseball games.  Walty was a SP there and was a command and control guy, walking just 13 and striking out 75 in 90 IP with a 3.29 ERA.

FINAL DAY 3 THOUGHTS - After Day 1 and Day 2, I expected Day 3 to be very boring as they likely weren't going to take any flyer or even interesting picks, but it came in under my very low expectations. I expected at least 1 if not more Draft-and-follows and I got none.  I expected maybe one sophomore but they did not select one.  They did draft some pitching which is always good, although I am a little worried as college juniors are not close to guaranteed to sign if they are drafted late.  That's why it is good that our last 3 college pitchers were seniors.  Also disappointed we didn't draft McDowell from Oregon State which would have been such a slam dunk after drafting Bazzana.  I mean, the guy hit .382 with an over 1.000 OPS playing good college competition. I am also disappointed that we didn't land Mason Koch, Owen Boerema, John Bay, Pierce Coppola or Matt Willadsen but, since no one else drafted them, it just reinforces that I have no idea what to look for in a pro prospect.  Obviously it is the Guardians who are scouting these kids and I am sure their due diligence told them that each of them had one or more tools that they could build from or refine to possibly make them ML players.  I hope that is true and I wish all of these guys the best of luck in their professional careers and that I can, one day, see them playing for the Guardians.  That's it for now.  Have a good day and a restful sleep tonight.