As we approach the 2024 draft I thought it would be instructive to look a few drafts back to see how the Guardians' draft strategy has played out.
2021
The year of the college pitcher! The Guardians took 18 college pitchers, 1 college position player (11th round), 1 HS position player (3rd round) and 1 HS pitcher (19th round) in the 20 round draft.
They were not alone as the Dodgers and Reds took almost exclusively pitchers, as well, but the Dodgers took more HS pitchers than the Guardians. So the Guardians strategy was not unique but it appears now that their selections were good ones.
1. Gavin Williams: pick 23, rank 31, MLB
2 - Doug Nikhazy, pick 58, rank 56, AAA
2-CB - Tommy Mace, pick 69, rank 45, AA
3 - Jake Fox - pick 96, rank 198 - High A
4. - Ryan Webb - pick 125, rank 155 - AA
5. - Tanner Bibee - pick 162, rank 155, MLB
6. - Aaron Davenport - picked 186, not ranked in top 250 - AA
7. - Jack Leftwich - pick 216, rank 156, AA
8. Rodney Boone - pick 245, rank 192, AA
9. Will Dion - 276, not ranked - AAA
10. Franco Aleman - pick 306, rank 243 AAA
11. Hunter Stanley - AAA
12. Connor Koxx - AA
13. Davis Sharpe - AA
14. Trenton Denhoms, Pick 426, rank 216, High A
15. Alaska Abney - AA
16. Zach Pettway - Retired
17. Tyler Thornton - AA
18. Tommy Ventimiglia - ACL
19. Reid Johnston - High A
20. Jake Miller - High A
In all seriousness, if Nikhazy, Webb, Mace, Aleman and Davenport make it to the majors (likely) and some of Dion, Boone, Stanley, Sharp and Denholm make it, this will be a great draft in strategy and execution, maybe the best in Cleveland history. Notice that 11 of their 21 picks were ranked in the MLB Pipeline top 250 and 7 of their picks were ranked higher than where they were selected (a good thinkg). They didn't do anything cute. They just drafted solid players in each round and picked guys they could develop. Solid...which is turning into excellent.
2022
DeLauter - 18/16 - AA
Campbell - 37/36 - ACL
Messick - 54/54 - AA
Lampe - 92/106 - AA
Furman - 121/NR in top 250 - AA
Lpscomb - 152/NR High A
DeLucia - 151/NR ACL
Santos - 211/NR ACL
Humphries - 214/128 Low A
Peterson - 271/NR - AA
Zibin - 301/131 - ACL
Ellerts - High A
Jasiak - High A
Turner - High A
Cavenaugh - Low A
Tulloch - High A
Clark - ACL
Zarate - High A
Jacobs - High A
River, Jr. - ACL
Shawn Rapp - High A
Only 6 of Cleveland's 21 draft picks were ranked in MLB Pipeline's top 250. Only 4 of their draftees were ranked higher than where they were drafted and two were HS pitchers (Humphries and Zinn) who were both way overslot signings. At the same point in their career 2021 draftees Bibee and Williams were in the majors. No player from this draft is above AA. There are some surprises (Peterson, Ellerts) but a lot of these guys could be released by next year at this time, contrasting to ZERO guys from the 2021 draft being released during the 2023 season or even so far in the 2024 season. This draft started the trend of looking for LH slap hitters with good plate discipline and some speed and control over velocity pitchers, hoping that they could teach power and velocity. So far it hasn't worked that well. This draft appears, right now, to be much less promising than 2021 with only one true starter type player emerging, the oft-injured (and injured at draft time) DeLauter.
2023
Velasques 23/31 - Low A
Clemmey 58/50 - Low A
Walters 62/124 - AAA
Kayfus 93/151 - AA
Ingle 125/232 - High A
Knapczyk - 161/157 - Low A
Hawke - 188/238 - Low A
Mooney - 218/114 - High A
Advincula - 248/NR - High A
Driver - 278/241 - Low A
Wilkinson - 308/NR - High A
Tincher - High A
Zinn - ACL
Bresnahan - ACL
Morehouse - Low A
Scott - Low A
Heuer - Did not sign
Riebock - ACL
Jahec - Low A
Jahec - Low A
Harlow - Low A
Marohn - Did not sign
9 of their 21 picks were ranked in MLB Pipeline's top 250 prospects. Only 4 were ranked high than where they were drafted. So far Kayfus looks like the gem of this class as he is clearly exceeding not only his ranking but also his draft selection spot, Velasquez looks very good and a solid, if long-game play. Ingle is a great hitter. Walters looked good until he got to AAA but even getting to AAA in his 1st full-season is a good result. Mooney has looked very good at High A and is looking more and more like his bonus was justified. Wilkinson has been a pleasant surprise as has Bresnahan. Clemmey has struggled with his challenging assignment to low A but the rest of the guys look like release candidates if they don't show improvement soon, which is not a good look for a team to release so many draft choices so early in their development. Compare this to 2021 and you can see how lacking this draft looks right now.
2024
So, what does all this mean for the 2024 draft? Looking at the last 3 drafts our success has come from drafting college pitchers of the type we drafted in 2021. We have drafted some position players in 2022 and 2023 who might be future starters and a lot of pitchers in those classes are either young or have been hurt or haven't shown they can dominate yet. So in 2024 we need to get a higher percentage of ranked, college prospects (like 2021), look for impact college bats (like Bazzana) and build off 2022 and 2023 to draft more quality (ranked) HS arms that will likely take overslot bonues to sign. That strategy will compliment the stronger players from the 2021, 2022 and 2023 drafts and help to fill in the gaps created by injuries and faulty draft strategy in 2022 and 2023.
This is a crucial draft for the Guardians and they need to do a good job. Don't try to be cute, don't try to prove you are the smartest scouting drirector out there by doing unusual things (like the slap hitter fad in 2023 and, to some extent, 2022). Just look at and mirror the 2021 draft, solid up and down the draft...but of course with more college impact bats than in 2021, 2022 and 2023.
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