To begin with, any day in the 2024 draft than starts with drafting Travis Bazzana can't be a bad day. But for this day and for the rest of my analysis of this draft I will look at 2 things
- Did the Guardians get good value at their pick by either drafting a player who was rated as good or better than the slot they were selected
- Did the Guardians' pick support a continuation of their competitiveness during the next 4 years, which is the bulk of the competitive window with the current major leaguers.
- Was it a good pick, cost-wise
- Did the pick they made make sense with the current organizational needs (least important)
I also want to look at draft trends by the other teams so I will focus on the picks between each of our picks and whether teams drafted guys who were as good or better prospects than their draft slot, worse prospects than their slot or MUCH worse prospects than their slot.
So let's dig in to day 1:
Guardians 1-1
Travis Bazzana College 2B - (slot 1-1, rank 1-1), the fans' pick, is now a Cleveland Guardian. He was the best fit possible in terms of getting the best prospect available at the time. He both fits into our current competitive window and appears to be a good financial play. This pick addressed the organizational need for hitting but it is unclear if it addressed an organizational need for a player at the position he was drafted.
My mock draft pick: Bazzana
Guys Between 1-1 and 1-35
What I always look for in the draft between Guardians' picks is what teams are making surprise picks. Every time a lower-rated player is picked the Guardians have a stronger pool of remaining players that they might be able to pick from.
- 18 if the next 34 picks were guys who were rated (by MLB Pipeline) lower than where they were drafted.
- Of those 18, 5 were rated 20 spots or more worse than where they were drafted.
Guardians 1-36
Braylon Doughty RH HS P (Slot 36, Rank 36) - He is a solid HS pitching prospect. He should require a bonus not much different from slot. Of course, that's what we thought about Clemmey last year (pick #58, rank #50) so I can't be sure where he will land in terms of above or below slot. This appears to be a good, solid pick for the Guardians even though I HATE HS arms (or bats) this early.
The way I look at it is this: Jose Ramirez will be under contract for 4 more years. At that time Kwan could be a free agent and Gimenez and Bibee could be free agents. Doughty is likely not getting to the majors until 2028 at the earliest. So he might not overlap with the current Guardians much, if at all. Picking Doughty doesn't help in our competitive window as defined by when Bibee, Ramirez, Gimenez and, maybe Kwan are with the team.
So, what does this pick really help? It is a long-term play that is filled with risk and becomes fruitfful, if it works at all, only in an uncertain future.
I like the pick, but it doesn't make sense for the Guardians as it does nothing to help the team when it still has the good players we know. You have to hypothesize that some of our minor leaguers become stars in the majors at the level of Kwan and Ramrez for us to have a base to which Doughty can make a MEANINGFUL impact to.
So, for the current Guardians' window of competitiveness, this pick doesn't make sense, although you can never have too much pitching and Doughty falls in with Bresnahan, Clemmey, Wilkinson, Humpries and Zibin in terms of getting to the majors, everything being equal, within the same period.
My mock draft pick: I selected Luke Holman who, as a college pitcher, likely would fall into our current competitive window. He was available at this slot.
Picks 37-47
In these 11 picks 5 of them were ranked worse than where they were selected, 2 of them more than 20 spots or more worse than the slot they were selected at.
Guardians pick 1-48
Jacob Cozart - College catcher - (Slot 48, Rank 42) -This pick gives me Javi Herrera (2003 2nd round pick by the Guardians, also a college catcher) vibes. A college catcher who was a decently ranked prospect, Herrera was a blah pick to me as a glove first catcher. The fact that he never made the majors made his blah selection all the more infuriating. Cozart reminds me of that pick. On the surface he checks the value box as he was ranked higher than where he was drafted. He also checks the financial checkbox as he won't cost over slot. He also checks the organizational need as I don't think Cooper Ingle will end up as a full-time ML catcher and there are no other catchers, AT ALL, in the Guardians' minor leagues who are prospects. He sort of checks the compettive window box as he should be here in 3 seasons and overlap with Bo Naylor for at least a year.
Still, to me, this pick was really a blah pick as he doesn't hit that well, showed some power in college this year (didn't everyone!?! and had more walks than strikeouts. In short, he is a Guardians guy.
My mock draft pick: Bryce Cunningham - RHP College - He was available at this slot.
SUMMARY -
Look, we got Bazzana, did not overdraft any players and, likely, ended the day with 3 guys who will sign for underslot or, in the case of Doughty and Cozart, at worse slot or a little above. We also filled organizational needs (you can never have too much pitching and we have little to no catching in the system). What the Guardians DID NOT do is leverage their developmental strength, which is finishing off polished college pitchers. They had the opportunity to bring in any two of a number of college pitchers were selected during the CB-A or 2nd round spots after they drafted at 26 and 48 and didn't do it, instead selecting HS pitching (vert risky) and college catching (more defense than a hitter (hit tool 45) and not good enough to be considered a really good value).
I just think the Guardians left a lot on the table here, not selecting to their strengths and not getting great value to leverage the bonus excess they will likely have.
They have also put themselves in a situation where they will likely have to:
- Take college pitching
- Drew Beam (#64)
- Ryan Prager (#61)
- Josh Hartle (#70)
- double down on their second and 3rd picks to get real value
- Joey Oakie (RH HS P, rank 46)
- Dax Whitney (RH HS P, rank 60)
- Kevin Bazzell (College C rank 55)
- Or take on significant risk
- Dakota Jordan (College draft-eligible soph, rank 30)
- Mike Sirota (college JR RHH OFer, rank 50)
- HS OFers
if we are getting good value for our next pick.
The college pitcher options are somewhat intriguing but remember there are 9 selections before we selected next. It is quite possible that all of these three could be gone. Sirota becomes maybe the best option if the college pitchers above are gone or we can get another college catcher (not ideal), lower ranked HS pitchers or a handful of HS and college position players who are ranked higher than #84, our draft slot.
There is still some hope of getting good value at the next pick and picks beyond that but everything would have to fall right for us not to end up with another college catcher or another (inherently) risky HS pitcher or position player.
Had we taken the two college pitchers I suggested , than focusing on a college bat or another HS pitcher might have been more palatable as we would have locked in a couple of solid guys at 36 and 48.
Solid first day but let's hope we didn't paint ourselves into a corner where we have to double down on positions or take on unnecessary risk or cost just because solid prospecets are gone.
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