Happy Holidays, Peace and Good Will to All

Have a great holiday season and may your days be filled with peace, happiness and good will to all. 

Wheeling and Dealing: Part Deux

The Indians have been busy the last couple of weeks.  Let's go over their moves and see how the logic of them stacks up:

Adam Everett:  He was signed to a minor league FA deal.  The only negative with minor league FA deals is if the guy you bring in blocks a true prospect from either playing time at a level or advancing from a lower level.  Everett does neither.  He also provides needed SS insurance in case Cabrera goes down and is utility infield depth.  Now, if he ends up on the ML roster cosing Donald or even the much-maligned Luis Valbuena playing time, or, in being on the roster, stops Jason Kipnis or Cord Phelps from being promoted, then I have an issue with bringing in a veteran in another predictably losing season and the difference between his ML salary and the ML minimum a rookie would get to give us a few more meaningless wins on our chase to avoid finishing behind Kansas City and ending up in last place in the AL Central.

I will say this, however.  If you could have found a way to roster Josh Rodriguez this signing would have been unnecessary.  More about that later.

Austin Kearns:  Bringing Kearns back makes some sense to me if the Indians think he can be a good example for younger players.  We don't know who the player will be who is DFA'd, released or traded but if it is Shelley Duncan, then no great loss there nor is the substitution of Kearns for roster on next year's 25 man roster that disturbing as there are currently no OFers in the minors ready to play in the majors.  Again, however, we are in a losing season and the difference between Kearn's base salary of $1.3 million (there are a number of fat incentives in it) and what we would pay a rookie could be used to sign draft picks.  Who really cares if we have mercenary veterans on the field next year.  We need to look at prospects.  So I am neutral on this signing...but only since we replaced one unneeded and worthless (to the Indians) veteran with another.

12-23-10: The Indians removed Justin Germano from the roster.  This is an odd move and it means, for now, the Indians continue their love affair with Shelley Duncan, a typical AAAA player who had his chance to remove that tag last year but, instead solidified it with a similar performance at an older age for another team besides the Yankees.  Hopefully Duncan will be the next DFA.  The DFA of Germano now further points out that there was room for Josh Rodriguez to be protected as Ger,ano could have been DFA'd earlier.  The Indians may say that they have a greater chance of keeping Germano by making this move now but my response would be 'How do you really know" and "Even if that is the case, who cares if you lose a AAAA reliever whose career took him to Japan because he couldn't make the majors in the US."

Toru Murata:  Again, cannon fodder for the minors and you can never have too much pitching.  Still, our Far East signing is a guy released from a Japanese team?   That's the equivalent of a guy released from a AA or AAA team.   Maybe we find a bargain here but that would be great scouting and coaching the guy up because, on paper, this guy doesn't appear to be very good.

Travis Buck:  An interesting signing.  He has significant ML experience and I don't know, depending on how the ML roster shakes out, if he would be taking ABs away from a prospect at AAA.  That being said we already have five outfielders: Sizemore, Crowe, Brantley, Choo and Kearns plus we have rookies like Carrera, Weglarz, Drennen and others in AAA and we have to find ABs for Jordan Brown, as well.

Summary: While I see the logic in some of these signings I harken back to how we set up our 40-man roster.  We are bringing in OFers but had Duncan and Ezequiel Carrera on our  40-manML roster at the time the rosters were frozen.  We have Jordan Henry one step behind Carrera at AA and not needing to be protected until after 2012 which, from his current trajectory, will put him in the majors at the time, anyway,  and we  let Jose Constanza walk in free agency.  We had enough OFers already to stock a AAA and ML roster yet we signed two more.  That doesn't make any sense to me, in light of exposing Rodriguez to the Rule 5.. 

Good roster management would have been to add Josh Rodriguez to the ML roster in November and remove Carrera.  We are signing OFers around him that, with the returning OFers, make Carrera worthless.  While losing Duncan for Kearns is no change, losing Rodriguez in the Rule 5 draft makes less sense now than it did at the time (it made no sense at the time) as Carrera appears to be filler in this organization's thinking and you don't lose guys in the Rule 5 draft with AAAA types (Nix, Duncan, Germano, among others), on you ML roster.  You just don't. 

So, while I applaud actually bringing in minor league FA's who might help in a pinch at positions we are not stacked at in the minors (although we ARE questionably stacked at OFer in AAA), these moves, in total, make me wonder why we exposed Rodriguez to the Rule 5 draft.  My only guess is that we valued Rodriguez as little as we value Carrera.  Time will tell if that is a mistake on the order of Brandon Phillips or an insignificant Rule 5 loss like Matt Whitney.  Let's hope it's the latter  A rebuilding organization can't afford to give up real prospects.

One final thought on this issue: Does the signing of OFers with ML experience point out that the Indians are pretty unsure if Grady Sizemore will be ready for the ML opener or if they question if he will ever be ready again?  Don't know, just sayin' it is a disturbing possibility.

What to make of the CC and Cliff Lee deals

OK, let's get this out of the way: Mark Shapiro did not do a good job in these trades.  He traded for 1 or 2 dimensional players, injured players, and guys on down years or downslides, whichever you prefer.  He gambled and he got burned.  Two trades that should have made us competitive again by this year or 2012 gave us, at best, complimentary pieces. 

When Philadelphia traded Lee to Seattle all the front office supportive bloggers said that it was a sign that Cliff Lee wasn't worth much in trade.  Actually, they were breathing a collective sigh of relief because the Philly-Seattle trade didn't give people like me who hated both trades, any more ammunition to prove the trades sucked. 

When Lee was traded to Texas from Seattle, when he had half a season left on his contract (we traded him when he had 1 1/2 seasons left on an incredibly cheap contract) the evidence again started to mount that the FO had screwed up the Lee trade.  The on-field evidence of the poor return in both trades was mounting as none of the guys we got back could hit over .253 on the major league level and the pitchers were all either recovering from injuries or still in the minors, or both. 

Now we have the same GM in Milwaukee who fleeced us out of CC, giving away his starting SS, one year removed from being the #1 prospect in the organzation, their #8 prospect last winter who hit .300+ in a late-season callup, its #1 prospect, Jake Odorizzi and uber- but troubled-prospect Jeremy Jeffress for SS Yuniesky Betancourt and two years of Zack Greinke and his 4.14 ERA, although Greinke is a true #1, like CC is, although CC is a special commodity as he is a hard-throwing lefthander.

Plus, remenber that Melvin also gave up a good deal to get starting pitcher Marcum from Toronto just a few weeks ago and the year before he traded for CC he traded good prospects just to get a middle reliever (Linebebrink).

So what do we make of all this?  Melvin WILL pay a premium price IF he is dealing with a good trading partner AND he wants to 'go for it' AND he isn't dealing with a GM dealing from fear 

Well clearly he wanted to go for it when he traded for CC and he was only getting 1/2 a season for CC but he also thought he would be getting two first round draft picks one year later in addition to that half year of CC.

The bottom line is what it has always been since the days of the CC trade.  Shapiro choked on the CC deal and he choked on the Lee deal.  And that is why we will struggle for at least the next couple of years (plus the three we have already struggled, counting the year we traded CC) IF we are even competitive at all in the next 4-5 years from now.

I am not saying I could have done any better, but obviously GMs trading with Melvin have.  Just not our GM.....and we don't know when we will stop paying for that.    

Let's get international

A couple of things I know about the Indians and international amateur free agent signings:

1. It is more costly with greater projection to sign a Latin amateur than a US amateur.
2. The Indians have done fairly well (see Victor Martinez, Jeanmar Gomez, Fausto Carmona, Hector Rondon and others) going cheap in this market.
3. Like me, John Mirabelli thinks this market is overpriced.

Still, you have to pay if you want to compete.  Here is a list of the international free agent signings this season (the signing period started July 2nd). The first 33 players on this list come from Baseball America's list of players predicted to get the top bonuses in this period.  The rest are significant signings with some of the bonuses estimated based on media reports:

1. Esteilon Peguero, SS, Dominican Republic – SEA $2.8 million
2. Luis Heredia, RHP, Mexico – PIT  $2.6 million
3. Adonis Cardona, RHP, Venezuala – TOR - $2.8 million
4. Renato Nunez, 3B, Venezuela – OAK $2.2 million
5. Eskarlin Vazquez, RF, Dominican Republic – DET (Danry?) - $1 million
6. Phillips Castillo, OF, Dominican Republic – SEA $2.2 million
7. Vicmal de la Cruz, CF, Dominican Republic – OAK 
8. Rougned Odor, SS, Venezuela – Texas - $425,000
9. Wilmer Romero, CF, Dominican Republic – NYY
10. Ariel Ovando, OF, Dominican Republic – HOU $2.8 million
11. Humberto Arteaga, SS, Venezuela – KC $1.1 million
12. Jose Torres, RHP, Colombia – SEA - $851,000
13. Yorman Garcia, CF, Venezuela – ARI - $300,000
14. Gabriel Cenas, 3B, Venezuela – TOR - $700,000
15. Elvis Sanchez, 3B, Dominican Republic – NYM
16. Angel Mejias, LHP Venezuela – UNSIGNED
17. Yoel Araujo, CF, Dominican Republic – TOR $800,000
18. Jordi Calderon, 3B, Venezuela – SEA 
19. Edwin Moreno, OF, Dominican Republic – SD - $500,000
20. Argy Raga, C, Venezuela – OAK
21. Alberto Triunfel, SS, Dominican Republic – Texas $300,000
22. Jose Tovar, LHP, Venezuela, COL - $350,000
23. Pedro Perez, 3B, Colombia – UNSIGNED
24. Yorman Landa, RHP, Venezuela – UNSIGNED
25. Vicente Lupo, OF, Venezuela – NYM $400,000
26. Antonio Gonzalez, SS, Dominican Republic – UNSIGNED
27. Geronimo Franzua, LHP, Dominican Republic – HOU $250,000
28. Ronny Mejias, SS, Venezuela – ARI - $300,000
29. Christopher Tamarez, SS, Dominican Republic – NYY - $650,000
30. Luis Abad, RHP, Dominican Republic – UNSIGNED
31. Felix Jorge, RHP, Dominican Republic – UNSIGNED
32. Javier Pimentel, SS, Dominican Republic – MIN $575,000
33. Anderson Gonzalez, SS, Venezuela – PHI

Other singificant signings:

Hector Veloz 3B BAL $300,000
Maricino Cabrera, RHP, ATL $300,000
Francisco Silva SS PHI $200,000
Reyson Zoquier, LHP, MIN $200,000
Carlos Matias, RHP STL $1.5 million
Jose Rafel DePaula RHP NYY
Milton Gomez RHP, MIL $350,000
Olivet Florentino SS, CIN $250,000

So, it looks like close to 20 teams spent significant money in Latin America this year.  Seattle, Toronto, Oakland and the Yankees appeared to be the big winners followed by Houston, Arizona and the Mets. 

Note also that KC and Pittsburgh spent big on the one significant guy they signed as did Detroit and St. Louis.  Minnesota spent big on their one guy last year and even went for a lesser but relatively expensive guy this year.

So, what's my point?  Although it is expensive, the Indians just can't ignore these top prospects due to cost.  I think, like KC and Pittsburgh did this year and Mnnesota did last year, they should make one top talent ($1 million plus) signing every year for Latin America.  I think this should be a different budget than the draft budget so that 2010's draft strategy can continue.  I am not not saying spending like drunken sailors which is what Toronto, Seattle and Oakland did, but note that Minnesota's #3 prospect this year is Miguel Sano, the SS they signed for over $2 million last year.  You spend, you get quality.  You don't, you hope you find a diamond in the rough.  The latter is really a tough way to go, although the Indians have been pretty proficient at it.  I just think it is time to augment that strategy and maybe do away with their Dominican team or, more likely, split one with another cost-conscious organization.  That is, stop signing quantity, start signing quality and integrate those guys into the US faster.  Although this might create a little culture shock these guys are on the same Rule 5 signing clock as US high schoolers so its not like we have forever. 

The Indians should NOT be big spenders in Latin America but they should spend big on ONE guy each year.  Considering we spent $1 million each on Sean Smith and Nick Pesco a few years back, I think $1.5-2 million once a year in Latin America is warranted. 

BTW, if you can get any of the remaining unsigned guys (see guys in red above) by signing them in the $200,000 range, I would do it in a heartbeat.  Odor and Mejias I would obviously pay more for but I think we need to get someone from this class or it helps to create a hole in our organization at the lower levels. 

At some point I will do a deeper dive into the ROI for these Latin signees over the last 5 years but I don't have the time now.

Tradition just took a hit

Bob Feller was Mr. Cleveland Indian to a lot of fans.  Maybe not with the real life-video game, internet in your cell phone gang but, for most of us lifelong Indians fans he was.  Living in St. Louis as I do and going to Cardinals games and walking the bronzed, HOF, statue row outside of Busch Stadium, it has been apparent to me that these statues and the tradition they represent transcends the number of store-bought world championships (see 1997 Marlins) a team can manufacture. 

Tradition is, in my opinion based on my experience in St. Louis and other towns, what establishes your fan base.  What fills the remaining empty seats are fair-weather fans but that tradition fills enough to pay the bills, in my opinion.  The fact that a 90+ man that very few of us ever saw pitch could even be considered the far and away leader in the Mr. All-Time Indian race is a testament to tradition and the power of just a little of that.  Which Cleveland player in the years before Mr. Feller's passing or who passes in the next 10 years, for that matter, is even mourned will tell you that.

So, as we mourn Bob Feller and his passing, remember that statue out in LF that some of you pass on the way in.  Imagine a row of statues like that where people can take their kids, grandkids or great-grandkids and say "I saw him pitch" or "I saw his 3000th hit", and fill their heads with stories of the exploits of these great players.  That's what builds tradition.

This is not a plug for bringing back Jim Thome or Manny Ramirez.  Travis Hafner's contract took care of that ever happening.  Nor is it a plug for bringing back Omar Vizquel, although I have favored, at one time or another, bringing back each of them for tradition sake.   I contend, however, that not making them a part of the past AND present of the Cleveland Indians makes it more likely that they will only ever be part of Indians lore, NOT Indians' tradition, even if they go into the HOF wearning Chief Wahoo on their bronzed bust in Cooperstown.

What I am pointing out here is merely an affirmation of the importance of Bob Feller on all Indians' fans and a request, in the future, when we have to choose between tradition and winning or cutting budget or even egos, we and the Indians' braintrust remember that statue of Bob Feller outside of Progressive Field and his continued, until his death, support of the Cleveland Indians...and that those in charge consider tradition more strongly in future negotiations.

Random thoughts 12/15

Every month or so I will do a sort blog on miscellaneous things that have happened or that might happen:

1. Any free agent signing or trade that we make to bolster our 2011 roster should have an eye on bringing in players who are solid Elias Ranking "B" players who will be eligible for compensation in the 2012 draft if they have a good or even career-average year.  Even if we will questionably offer these guys arbitration next winter, we could also get prospects for them in mid-season trades.   A great way to use filler for open roster spots in 2011 is to look to the future and turn them into draft picks or prospects in trade.  A terrible way to use these roster spots is to fill them with AAAA guys, especially if those AAAA guys are blocking prospects.  Thus, I would be OK with Nick Punto at third if he was a solid Type B with some upside as a Type A...but he isn't.   To reiterate: if you sign FAs or trade for veterans to fill gaps this year, make sure you can get compensation for them next winter.  Wonder how the Red Sox get so many high draft picks?  There you have it.

If you can't find those types of free agents or veterans attainable in cheap trades just to take on salary, then I would go with young guys.  Otherwise, we become the KC Royals.

2. I am thinking that Cliff Lee is a very smart guy.  He is confident enough in his ability to know that it is about stats building for his next contract AND competitiveness.  The NL and the Phillies offer him the opportunity to do both.   I still laugh at the people who tried to rationalize the poor return we got for him by comparing it to the return the Phillies got for him.  Any rational person then saw what was going on: The Phillies were trying to dump salary quickly and Lee was the easiest "dump" who would bring any return at all.  Unlike some GMs, the Phillies GM obviously didn't want to non-tender guys or give guys away for nothing just to dump salary.  He wanted some quality back, even if it was below market value.  So Lee's trade from Philly to Seattle was not surprising and, considering he gave up very little to the Indians to get Lee, trading him for a little less to Seattle just to dump salary to pay Halladay makes all the sense in the world.  Unfortunately, the perennial FO supporting bloggers who cover the Indians needed to rationalize the poor trade the Indians made with the Phillies by dissing Lee's worth.  His FA deal with the Phillies and the Phillies' subsequent reluctance just to give Blanton and Ibanez away for nothing to save money reiterates all the points that negate those FO supporter arguments. 

3.  The giveaway of Josh Rodriguez makes me loathe the approach of spring training.  Nothing to look forward to with the Indians and the chance of Rodriguez making the Pirates and succeeding and us paying Punto a lot of money or a minor league FA a lot to fill Rodriguez's spot in AAA or as a utility guy with the Indians really would bite.  We all realize that an experienced AAAA minor league FA SS is going to make up to $150,000 more than Rodriguez would have made to occupy a AAA roster spot, don't we?   I could turn that money into a Dischler, Goodnight or Holt signing in 2011, if money is that tight.  We get some of that back from the Rule 5 fee but we lose a talent to boot in potentially losing money.  How does that make sense?

4. Does it bother anyone that Michael Brantley, Jordan Henry, Ezequiel Carrera, Trevor Crowe and Tyler Holt hit less than 10 HRs combined last year?  Part of the reason for Constanza to leave is that he saw multiple players like himself ahead of him on the depth chart.  Signing with ANY other club would have been good for him but Atlanta especially has found a way to get value out of guys like Constanza.  While I like speed, basically having Michael Brantley on your AL team means that all the other speed guys are irrelevant.  An AL team who is decent defensively in the OF (Choo and Sizemore are good, at least, if healthy) can only really afford one singless hitter among their 4-5 outfielders.  Brantley is that guy.  Keeping him AND Crowe makes this team weaker.  Ditto for Henry, Cerrera and Holt down the road.  They are needless.  Good drafting and trading by the Indians to get these guys who are all MLers or potential MLers but we need to start trading this speed for young power or ptiching or the above-mentioned salary dump 2011 Type B/A free agents.

Remember the mantra: trade your minor league strengths for your minor league weaknesses.  Build organizational balance and balance to your feeder system to the ML in this way and augment with July deals and good drafting....but keep the balance by continually trading your excess.

5. As someone who has proposed for years to exploit the fear that pervades draft day team conference rooms (i.e., fear of serious injuries, fear of bad attitudes, fear of hangnails that pop up right before the draft, fear of higher than slot bonus demands, etc.) ,  I will be interested to see if the Indians' 2010 approach is successful.  The best thing any of us can hope for is that all of these signings who fell due to bonus demands or other reasons (Wolters, Washington, Holt, Dischler, Goodnight, etc.) hit the ground running this spring and if they are augmented by Aviles' performance when he recovers from TJ surgery, although that won't impact the 2011 draft.  If that happens the Indians will be more inclined to draft the same way in 2011 and beyond.   History tells me that if these guys fall flat on their faces management will declare the 2010 draft experiment a failure and go cheap or go high end at #1 and cheap the rest of the way.  Hope that this doesn't happen because the methodology in 2010 was sound for a small market club as I have shown time and again over the years.  It's also interesting how some bloggers and fans are now saying "Yeah, I was saying to draft this way, too"....all evidence to the contrary.  Well, what can you do?

Rule 5 Results

Well, as predicted in the previous piece (see below), Josh Rodriguez was the most likely Indian to be selected and he was selected FIRST OVERALL by the Pirates.  While this doesn't have much, if any weight, as the guy who knew him best, Neal Huntington of the Pirates, had that first pick, it does go to point out that Huntington thought Rodriguez had the most upside of any guy who might stick with a team next year.  Hey, it's not like the Pirates are so deep that they were drafting for need!

Teams that finish with almost 100 losses should not be losing people in the ML portion of the Rule 5 draft, especially with AAAA guys  like Shelly Duncan, Jayson Nix and Justin Germano on their roster.  While Rodriguez may be underappreciated at this point, he is a middle infielder who can field and has some thunder in his bat.  He can clearly stick with a team this year and, although he may profile as no more than a quality utililty infielder (both offensively and defensively) he still could be more and probably will not be less.

When you have AAAA guys on your roster at his position year after year, it does tend to upset this Cleveland fan that the Indians would not protect the single most obvious Rule 5 target in their farm system instead of one of the three guys mentioned above.

Given that the Indians also lost SS Rivero to the Phillies on waivers, the loss of Rodriguez means another parade of AAAA middle infielders into Columbus with some of them more than likely getting ABs in Cleveland.  That really sucks if you are the fan of...what did Scott Boras call it...A DEVELOPMENTAL TEAM.  Yeah, developmental teams should really be losing guys like Rodriguez and Rivero.  Not that Rivero, on paper, is a big loss, as I think Rodriguez has a chance to be pretty good.

The Indians lost no one in the AAA and AA portions meaning that they didn't do anything stupid in setting up their AAA or AA reserve lists.  To me that means that John Drennen, among others, were protected at the AAA level.

Funniest comment of the day:  Bloggers congratulating the Indians for not losing anyone in the MINOR LEAGUE portions of the draft due to good management of their reserve lists without calling them on the carpet for losing Rodriguez.

Another stupid result for the Indians.  Not the biggest loss in the world but let's all remember this if Rodriguez sticks in Pittsburgh while we see the next parade of Anderson Hernandez types parade through Cleveland next year.

Rule 5 Thoughts - 2010

Tomorrow is the Rule 5 draft.

If you don't know anything about it know this: It is totally unpredictable and after guys who no one predicted get picked, no one is ever able to figure out who will actually stick the next spring. 

That being said, here is who the Indians are most likely to lose in the major league phase, with percentages:

Josh Rodriguez: 75% likelihood of being selected.  He's a utility infielder who has some pop and and some upside. 

Adam Miller - 50% likelihood:  Yeah, he may not be healthy but it will only cost $25,000 for a team to find out if they have to return him to the Indians.

Paolo Espino - 25% likelihood: Teams may want to look at him as a reliever with starter upside, similar to what Hector Ambriz did last year for the Indians.

Matt McBride - 25% likelihood: Some uninformed team might take him with the idea they can convert him back to catcher or as a utility guy who can catch part of the time.  For $25,000 it might be worth the gamble.  Otherwise, he doesn't fit the mold of Rule 5 guys.

Connor Graham - 10% likelihood:  Some team might take his arm but, after this year, I doubt it.  He is all over the place with his command.

Minor League Phase - We don't often talk about this phase but guys do get selected.

John Drennen - This could be the surprise for the Indians this year.  I don't think they will protect him on the AAA roster and I think he will be snagged by some team.

Juan Aponte

Beau Mills - Given his dismal performance, the Indians may expose him to the minor league phase, but I doubt it as it would put too much egg on their face for picking him in the first round of a relatively recent draft.  Still, you never know.  If he is on the AAA roster, no way this guy gets picked in the major league portion (yuck, yuck, now he is almost guaranteed to be picked in that phase!)

Carlton Smith - Don't be surprised if the Indians expose him to the minor league phase.  I don't think they have much faith in his ability.

Travis Turek - I could see a team snagging him and I could see the Indians not even protecting him on the AAA roster.

So, there it is in writing.  We will see what happens tomorrow.