5/30 - Here is a great site that catalogs all the various mock drafts.
http://dcprosportsreport.com/MLBMocks.htm
Currently it looks like it will be a college pitcher (from Jim Callis of BA) and that could would either be Bauer (who I predicted it would be in February), Jed Bradley, Matt Barnes or Taylor Jungmann. The latest rumors have the Indians maybe taking a run at Francisco Lindor who may fall due to concerns about his 5'11" stature. I have also seen one mock that has the Indians gambling and taking Taylor Guerrieri who came on this season after starting as the 47th best prospect in the country to currently being ranked 10th.
So, even though I don't put much stock in mock drafts, this draft is really interesting. I still like Barnes and Jungmann as everyone else has issues for me. Great upside, to be sure, but issues, nonetheless.
One thing about Jungmann: Most consider him a safe pick who will sign for slot.
One thing about Barnes: Scouts think that he may end up sitting at 95-96 mph (he currently sits at 93-94 and touches 97).
I think Barnes is the better ML pitcher down the road but Jungmann is solid, as well.
On a level playing field, I think Jungmann beats Barnes to the majors by 1/2 a season. That could be huge if the Indians poise themselves to make a run in 2013. If they are set up for a run in 2014 and beyond, then Barnes is the man for me. A school of thought says that if they compete in 2012 Bauer might be the best pick as he could be useful in the ML bullpen by the second half ot 2012 and, like Masterson, flop back over to starting in 2013. I still see him as a short righthander.
While one should not put much stock in mock drafts, two ones that just came out are really scary.
Baseball America has the Indians taking Jed Bradley. Bradley is not a bad player, by any means, being BA's #10 college prospect at the beginning of the year. Still, in a year where the power of the college bat has been dulled by new rules, Bradley has a 3.71 ERA. He has also given up 75 hits in 85 IP and walked 28 while striking out 94. Of those numbers only the K/IP is impressive.
Prospect Insider writer Jeff Ellis has the Indians taking Alex Meyer of Kentucky. Mr. Meyer has done nothing but disappoint during his career. He had a 5.93 ERA as a freshman and a 7.06 ERA as a sophomore when he had mononucleosis in the MIDDLE of the season. He started out slowly this year but has come on recently.
Bradley is a reach at 8, given who else is available and Meyer is the TYPICAL sucker pick. A guy who had huge potential coming out of HS but has not shown anything except in the last two months before the draft (go figure!). I know Jeff suggested these as "projected picks" but no one that I know of is projecting Meyer to go as high as 8th because everyone knows the risk of picking a guy based on two months in the past 3 years.
So, my money, and hopes, are still on Matt Barnes and Taylor Jungmann, in that order. I give Barnes the slight edge because he is a cold weather pitcher. Aside from that, they are a dead heat and, in my opinion, won't be tough signs (although if one or both are represented by Scott Boras and Co. that might change).
I have seen other recent projections with the Indians getting Trevor Bauer, Sonny Gray and an old projection with them getting Francis Lindor.
However, at this point, I still like Barnes and Jungmann the best. As I will point out later in my draft analysis, this is a DEEP draft but that quality depth BARELY extends to the Indians' second pick, if that far. I don't want to take the risk that Bradley will be better in the pros than he is in college where now we are seeing how guys like Jungmann (0.95 ERA) and Barnes (58 H in 105 IP with 97 K and 26 BB), prime prospects, can dominate and have for MULTIPLE years. So we need to hit on this first pick and Jed Bradley and Alex Meyer and even Sonny Gray are not the way to go. If we make that gamble, in a year with great draft depth, we may end up with an "F" or a "D" in 3-4 years from Baseball America and other draft experts.
We need to get a solid #2 with #1 potential out of this draft and that is not Bradley or Meyer who have #1 potential but now look like solid #3-5 guys, if their performance this year is compared to their draft-eligible colleagues.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Last non-draft post for awhile - Opinions on every team in the Indian's system
OK, the draft is heating up and I will be posting exclusively on that for the next 2-4 weeks or so.
Before I jump into draft mode I wanted to make a couple of comments about the teams in the Indians' system.
Major league team: Baseball America, in their almanac, has a section for each team. In that section they mention the high point and low point of the season for each team. The Indians were 30-15, which I hope is not the high point of their season. However, to keep on keepin' on, the Indians will need some miracles. Well, not miracles, exactly. They will need their hitters to start carrying this team. Just like ACab carried this team for a few games, Sizemore, Choo, Santana and, when he comes back, Hafner will have to start carrying this team. Otherwise, we will need REAL miracles like some of our AAAA guys (Kearns, Hanrahan, Duncan) getting career-record hot. The pitching doesn't really need to change except that Talbot needs to be right physically and mentally. If that happens I think the rest of the pitching takes care of itself. If we don't get all of the above, we are in for a long summer. Still, looking at this team, I predict that, through the mid-point of the season, the Indians will be 49-32, meaning, from this point to them, they will play 19-14 baseball. That, of course, depends on a miracle or two because, just like the Cavs this year where it DIDN'T happen, without benefit of star-power players the Indians' early season success was based on a house of cards or a 20 year old clunker having all cylinders firing in tune, whichever analogy you want to use. If anything goes wrong, the house falls down (or the clunker breaks down).
Columbus: The magic is happening for this team. As long as the Indians continue to go with their plan you will see this team continue to dominate. They are already starting to see life from Corey Kluber which is a great sign as he was a hole in the rotation. Adding Justin Germano helps the bullpen.
Akron: This team is starting to show life and Matt Packer's game last night is a great sign. If Joe Gardner can get it going, Pomeranz can be effective and Packer can build on last night, this team could make some noise. If Bryce Stowell and Nick Weglarz ever get out of extended spring training purgatory, this team could take off like a rocket. Plus, adding Adam Miller and calling up Pomeranz (if and when it happens) will keep the buzz about this team going and fill the seats, which will help the players' performance.
Kinston: This team will struggle all year. Their hitting is really bad. All we can hope for is good performance by our prospects and maybe the second half effect where teams gut their rosters of their prospects, leaving the K-Tribe's roster mostly unchanged making them the de facto best team in their division and maybe the league the second half.
Lake County: It's hard both this early in the season AND in a minor league season in general to call any team a disappointment. However, this team has been very disappointing and that starts with the starting pitching. Anthony Dischler was totally ineffective before he was hurt (I think he's hurt, isn't he?). Kyle Blair and Cole Cook have been EXTREMELY disappointing and I am hoping they heat up with the weather. Michael Goodnight and Mike Rayl have been pleasant surprises but add to the disappointment over Blair and Cole, who are much more talented and Dischler, who is probably AS talented as Goodnight and Rayl. Add Trey Haley to the list of disappointments as, despite his control problems, you would expect him to dominate just based on this being his 3rd trip to Lake County AND the fact that no one has really stepped up as a prospect on the offensive side and this team, which I expected to dominate this league based on its pitching, is really starting to make the 2010 draft look less shiny than it did before the season. As far as hitting, Washington and Lavisky are having very predictable struggles and fringe but interesting prospects like Moncrief, Aguilar, Urshela, Monsalve and Martinez are doing nothing more than cementing while they are intrguing suspects and no more.
OK, on to the draft.
Before I jump into draft mode I wanted to make a couple of comments about the teams in the Indians' system.
Major league team: Baseball America, in their almanac, has a section for each team. In that section they mention the high point and low point of the season for each team. The Indians were 30-15, which I hope is not the high point of their season. However, to keep on keepin' on, the Indians will need some miracles. Well, not miracles, exactly. They will need their hitters to start carrying this team. Just like ACab carried this team for a few games, Sizemore, Choo, Santana and, when he comes back, Hafner will have to start carrying this team. Otherwise, we will need REAL miracles like some of our AAAA guys (Kearns, Hanrahan, Duncan) getting career-record hot. The pitching doesn't really need to change except that Talbot needs to be right physically and mentally. If that happens I think the rest of the pitching takes care of itself. If we don't get all of the above, we are in for a long summer. Still, looking at this team, I predict that, through the mid-point of the season, the Indians will be 49-32, meaning, from this point to them, they will play 19-14 baseball. That, of course, depends on a miracle or two because, just like the Cavs this year where it DIDN'T happen, without benefit of star-power players the Indians' early season success was based on a house of cards or a 20 year old clunker having all cylinders firing in tune, whichever analogy you want to use. If anything goes wrong, the house falls down (or the clunker breaks down).
Columbus: The magic is happening for this team. As long as the Indians continue to go with their plan you will see this team continue to dominate. They are already starting to see life from Corey Kluber which is a great sign as he was a hole in the rotation. Adding Justin Germano helps the bullpen.
Akron: This team is starting to show life and Matt Packer's game last night is a great sign. If Joe Gardner can get it going, Pomeranz can be effective and Packer can build on last night, this team could make some noise. If Bryce Stowell and Nick Weglarz ever get out of extended spring training purgatory, this team could take off like a rocket. Plus, adding Adam Miller and calling up Pomeranz (if and when it happens) will keep the buzz about this team going and fill the seats, which will help the players' performance.
Kinston: This team will struggle all year. Their hitting is really bad. All we can hope for is good performance by our prospects and maybe the second half effect where teams gut their rosters of their prospects, leaving the K-Tribe's roster mostly unchanged making them the de facto best team in their division and maybe the league the second half.
Lake County: It's hard both this early in the season AND in a minor league season in general to call any team a disappointment. However, this team has been very disappointing and that starts with the starting pitching. Anthony Dischler was totally ineffective before he was hurt (I think he's hurt, isn't he?). Kyle Blair and Cole Cook have been EXTREMELY disappointing and I am hoping they heat up with the weather. Michael Goodnight and Mike Rayl have been pleasant surprises but add to the disappointment over Blair and Cole, who are much more talented and Dischler, who is probably AS talented as Goodnight and Rayl. Add Trey Haley to the list of disappointments as, despite his control problems, you would expect him to dominate just based on this being his 3rd trip to Lake County AND the fact that no one has really stepped up as a prospect on the offensive side and this team, which I expected to dominate this league based on its pitching, is really starting to make the 2010 draft look less shiny than it did before the season. As far as hitting, Washington and Lavisky are having very predictable struggles and fringe but interesting prospects like Moncrief, Aguilar, Urshela, Monsalve and Martinez are doing nothing more than cementing while they are intrguing suspects and no more.
OK, on to the draft.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
When present and future crash and burn
At the end of April I wrote an opinion on bringing up Alex White. Well, now Alex White is on the DL. Did bringing him up now lead to him getting hurt? According to White and the Indians head trainer, the answer is 'no', it was probably a latent injury that would have happened eventually. Still, you have to wonder if White didn't try to get a little extra bite on that breaking ball because he was trying to get a big league hitter out instead of trying to get a AAA hitter out.
The question is would more experienced guys such as David Huff or Zach McAllister have been able to do as well as White?
Well, the Indians won all three of White's starts. He kept them in the game each time in close, relatively low scoring games.
So, I think, the answer is absolutely NOT for Huff. With McAllister, who is also on the 40-man, the answer, for me, is a resounding YES. In McAllister's 3 starts on dates identical to or close to White's three starts (not counting his rainout start), McAllister had this composite line:
3-0 21 IP 14 H 2 R 2 ER 1 BB 21 K
Yes, McAllister would have probably been able to duplicate White's effort.
This supports what I said at the time: It was the wrong time to bring up White. He either started collecting service time, which he will now do on the DL, or we burned an option on him if he doesn't work out. With his finger issue, burning an option hurts but leaving him on the DL all season hurts as his service time clock continues to run, or at least I think it does.
But the Indians' FO, who was playing to win this year (hey, they're succeeding at it) decided to bring White up and then to leave him up.
The Indians were playing for the present. They were saying "damn the future". My premise was, is and will always be:
WHEN YOU ARE THE CLEVELAND INDIANS, YOU ALWAYS PLAY FOR THE FUTURE BUT KEEP ONE EYE ON THE PRESENT
Bringing White up was a mistake. Did it contribute to his injury? Who knows. But I do think McAllister would have done as well and we might well have not been in the roster mess that having a DL'd White on it creates.
Dear Indians: Next time you get a chance to sacrifice the future for the present, DON'T.
The question is would more experienced guys such as David Huff or Zach McAllister have been able to do as well as White?
Well, the Indians won all three of White's starts. He kept them in the game each time in close, relatively low scoring games.
So, I think, the answer is absolutely NOT for Huff. With McAllister, who is also on the 40-man, the answer, for me, is a resounding YES. In McAllister's 3 starts on dates identical to or close to White's three starts (not counting his rainout start), McAllister had this composite line:
3-0 21 IP 14 H 2 R 2 ER 1 BB 21 K
Yes, McAllister would have probably been able to duplicate White's effort.
This supports what I said at the time: It was the wrong time to bring up White. He either started collecting service time, which he will now do on the DL, or we burned an option on him if he doesn't work out. With his finger issue, burning an option hurts but leaving him on the DL all season hurts as his service time clock continues to run, or at least I think it does.
But the Indians' FO, who was playing to win this year (hey, they're succeeding at it) decided to bring White up and then to leave him up.
The Indians were playing for the present. They were saying "damn the future". My premise was, is and will always be:
WHEN YOU ARE THE CLEVELAND INDIANS, YOU ALWAYS PLAY FOR THE FUTURE BUT KEEP ONE EYE ON THE PRESENT
Bringing White up was a mistake. Did it contribute to his injury? Who knows. But I do think McAllister would have done as well and we might well have not been in the roster mess that having a DL'd White on it creates.
Dear Indians: Next time you get a chance to sacrifice the future for the present, DON'T.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
May 14, 2011 Draft update
Baseball America did its first mock draft and the Indians picked Trevor Bauer, the guy who I said they would probably end up with back in February when I gave my first draft update. Thus far most mock drafts I have seen have had us end up with Bauer. Here is the complete first round mock from BA with my comments:
1. PIRATES: Gerrit Cole. - With Pedro Alvarez at 3rd base, this makes perfect sense. You can't have enough pitching and while I think Cole might get more money than he is worth, this one is solid.
2. MARINERS: Anthony Rendon - This makes great sense for the Mariners with Chone Figgins currently at 3B and their top ranked third base prospect not being in their top 10.
3. DIAMONDBACKS: Danny Hultzen.- The Dbacks have loved Hultzen since before the season but his performance has moved him up to 3rd from 7th where they had him before.
4. ORIOLES: Jed Bradley - You obviously have to look beyond the numbers on this guy because, statistically, he doesn't look that great in any category! But it is the Orioles and there is a reason they are in last place or close to it every year
5. ROYALS: Sonny Gray - This is a great pick for this team. While going for someone like Junngmann or one of the HS pitchers would help this team, Gray will be more inclined to be an impact player during KC's big run starting in 2013
6. NATIONALS: Alex Meyer - This is why the draft stinks. Meyer has just come on recently but scouts remember his potential and they overvalue well-timed out-of-character performance if they already believe the guy SHOULD be a high end prospect
7. DIAMONDBACKS: Dylan Bundy. - Interesting. This is not what I would have done if I was the Dbacks. If they fail to sign Bundy they won't get their draft pick back next year since this was a compensatory pick this year. I think they will go for a college pitcher
8. INDIANS: Trevor Bauer - Part of me says "Yeah, I was right" but, as you all know, part of me is thinking this guy is short and has had a very heavy workload this year. Still (see below) his stats are eye-popping.UPDATE: Bauer threw a complete game today with ONE HUNDRED AND FOURTY PITCHES. I mean, who throws 140 pitches in a game anymore?
9. CUBS: Bubba Starling - Very Cubs-like pick. High upside, high price tage but lots of question marks.
10. PADRES: Taylor Jungmann. - I think we should draft him instead of Bauer. Less upside but less red flags, too.
11. ASTROS: Francisco Lindor - Good pick for a starved farm system. You have to gamble if you are in the shape the Astros are.
12. BREWERS: Taylor Guerrieri.
13. METS: Brandon Nimmo.
14. MARLINS: George Springer.
15. BREWERS: Larry Greene.
16. DODGERS: Archie Bradley.
17. ANGELS: Daniel Norris.
18. ATHLETICS: Mikie Mahtook.
19. RED SOX: Matt Barnes - A perfect fit for Boston but I would rather the Indians take him.
20. ROCKIES: Levi Michael.
21. BLUE JAYS: Josh Bell.
22. CARDINALS: Javier Baez.
23. NATIONALS: C.J. Cron.
24. RAYS: Jose Fernandez.
25. PADRES: Cory Spangenberg.
26. RED SOX: Austin Hedges.
27. REDS: John Stilson.
28. BRAVES: Henry Owens.
29. GIANTS: Robert Stephenson.
30. TWINS: Tyler Anderson.
31. RAYS: Kolten Wong.
32. RAYS: Matt Purke - When you have this many high picks you take chances. The Rays, like the Sox last year with Anthony Ranaudo. could get a high quality pitcher at a cheap draft slot.
33. RANGERS: Blake Swihart.
Looking over the stats for players who might be available when the Indians draft here are my thoughts:
Trevor Bauer and Danny Hultzen will probably be gone. Bauer has K'd 154 in 100.2 innings. For a major D-I school that is just unbelievable. Batters are hitting .142 against him, which is almost as unreal. He is short but visions of Oswalt and Lincecum are dancing in people's heads.
Gerrit Cole will be gone.
Bubba Starling should be gone but might drop if his bonus demands get too high.
Right now I think the Indians should focus on Matt Barnes, who also certainly will be there when the Indians draft, Taylor Jungmann, who is 50/50 to be there and the first position player I have mentioned this year, George Springer, an outfielder from Connecticutt.
I still think it is a long shot that the Indians will draft a position player in the first round but Springer has come on recently. That being said I think it will be between Barnes and Jungmann and the one that is left at the time the Indians draft (most likely Barnes) should be plucked by the Indians.
I do not like short righties and so, if Sonny Gray is still there I pick Barnes or Jungmann over Gray because, despite his high 90s fastball, he is another short righthander.
Time to get a little more certainty and give up a little upside. Barnes and Jungmann have enough upside for anyone at that pick. You shouldn't go hog wild with gambles just because of upside when you have solid upside guys you can grab without going for the brass ring. Save that for the second and later rounds. I have a sneaking feeling that a number of top 20 guys will still be there at the time of our second round pick.
And I haven't even mentioned the HS pitchers Bundy, Bradley and Norris.
I predict the Indians will take Barnes. I think he will be there when the Indians pick and, if I was them, I would have one scout following Jungmann and another following Barnes/Springer. Maybe put your Oklahoma guy on Bundy/Bradley and scout the other guys some in case one of them drops to the second round.
However, for me, it's Barnes or Jungmann as the first round pick now that Bauer has, I think fortunately for us, pitched himself into the top 3 players in the country.
1. PIRATES: Gerrit Cole. - With Pedro Alvarez at 3rd base, this makes perfect sense. You can't have enough pitching and while I think Cole might get more money than he is worth, this one is solid.
2. MARINERS: Anthony Rendon - This makes great sense for the Mariners with Chone Figgins currently at 3B and their top ranked third base prospect not being in their top 10.
3. DIAMONDBACKS: Danny Hultzen.- The Dbacks have loved Hultzen since before the season but his performance has moved him up to 3rd from 7th where they had him before.
4. ORIOLES: Jed Bradley - You obviously have to look beyond the numbers on this guy because, statistically, he doesn't look that great in any category! But it is the Orioles and there is a reason they are in last place or close to it every year
5. ROYALS: Sonny Gray - This is a great pick for this team. While going for someone like Junngmann or one of the HS pitchers would help this team, Gray will be more inclined to be an impact player during KC's big run starting in 2013
6. NATIONALS: Alex Meyer - This is why the draft stinks. Meyer has just come on recently but scouts remember his potential and they overvalue well-timed out-of-character performance if they already believe the guy SHOULD be a high end prospect
7. DIAMONDBACKS: Dylan Bundy. - Interesting. This is not what I would have done if I was the Dbacks. If they fail to sign Bundy they won't get their draft pick back next year since this was a compensatory pick this year. I think they will go for a college pitcher
8. INDIANS: Trevor Bauer - Part of me says "Yeah, I was right" but, as you all know, part of me is thinking this guy is short and has had a very heavy workload this year. Still (see below) his stats are eye-popping.UPDATE: Bauer threw a complete game today with ONE HUNDRED AND FOURTY PITCHES. I mean, who throws 140 pitches in a game anymore?
9. CUBS: Bubba Starling - Very Cubs-like pick. High upside, high price tage but lots of question marks.
10. PADRES: Taylor Jungmann. - I think we should draft him instead of Bauer. Less upside but less red flags, too.
11. ASTROS: Francisco Lindor - Good pick for a starved farm system. You have to gamble if you are in the shape the Astros are.
12. BREWERS: Taylor Guerrieri.
13. METS: Brandon Nimmo.
14. MARLINS: George Springer.
15. BREWERS: Larry Greene.
16. DODGERS: Archie Bradley.
17. ANGELS: Daniel Norris.
18. ATHLETICS: Mikie Mahtook.
19. RED SOX: Matt Barnes - A perfect fit for Boston but I would rather the Indians take him.
20. ROCKIES: Levi Michael.
21. BLUE JAYS: Josh Bell.
22. CARDINALS: Javier Baez.
23. NATIONALS: C.J. Cron.
24. RAYS: Jose Fernandez.
25. PADRES: Cory Spangenberg.
26. RED SOX: Austin Hedges.
27. REDS: John Stilson.
28. BRAVES: Henry Owens.
29. GIANTS: Robert Stephenson.
30. TWINS: Tyler Anderson.
31. RAYS: Kolten Wong.
32. RAYS: Matt Purke - When you have this many high picks you take chances. The Rays, like the Sox last year with Anthony Ranaudo. could get a high quality pitcher at a cheap draft slot.
33. RANGERS: Blake Swihart.
Looking over the stats for players who might be available when the Indians draft here are my thoughts:
Trevor Bauer and Danny Hultzen will probably be gone. Bauer has K'd 154 in 100.2 innings. For a major D-I school that is just unbelievable. Batters are hitting .142 against him, which is almost as unreal. He is short but visions of Oswalt and Lincecum are dancing in people's heads.
Gerrit Cole will be gone.
Bubba Starling should be gone but might drop if his bonus demands get too high.
Right now I think the Indians should focus on Matt Barnes, who also certainly will be there when the Indians draft, Taylor Jungmann, who is 50/50 to be there and the first position player I have mentioned this year, George Springer, an outfielder from Connecticutt.
I still think it is a long shot that the Indians will draft a position player in the first round but Springer has come on recently. That being said I think it will be between Barnes and Jungmann and the one that is left at the time the Indians draft (most likely Barnes) should be plucked by the Indians.
I do not like short righties and so, if Sonny Gray is still there I pick Barnes or Jungmann over Gray because, despite his high 90s fastball, he is another short righthander.
Time to get a little more certainty and give up a little upside. Barnes and Jungmann have enough upside for anyone at that pick. You shouldn't go hog wild with gambles just because of upside when you have solid upside guys you can grab without going for the brass ring. Save that for the second and later rounds. I have a sneaking feeling that a number of top 20 guys will still be there at the time of our second round pick.
And I haven't even mentioned the HS pitchers Bundy, Bradley and Norris.
I predict the Indians will take Barnes. I think he will be there when the Indians pick and, if I was them, I would have one scout following Jungmann and another following Barnes/Springer. Maybe put your Oklahoma guy on Bundy/Bradley and scout the other guys some in case one of them drops to the second round.
However, for me, it's Barnes or Jungmann as the first round pick now that Bauer has, I think fortunately for us, pitched himself into the top 3 players in the country.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
The ranks get thinner
Along with Jordan Brown, the Indians gave away Jess Todd, who was claimed on waviers by the Yankees when he was DFA'd last week.
The Indians have not given these guys a chance. However, neither of them recently has proven the Indians wrong.
I think, though, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. They think a guy is worthless, they diss him at every opportunity and that guy, being down, doesn't accept the demotion well and doesn't perform well when demoted. That latter part is on the player. It IS part of makeup but you have to give a guy a chance, especially instead of piling unneeded AAAA guys in front of him.
That's what happened to both Todd and Brown and a slew of minor leaguers before them.
The Indians need to change their philosophy, at least in my opinion. The Indians had 8 guys who made their ML debuts last year. There were 6 teams with more players making their ML debuts and 3 teams with the same number (8) making their ML debuts. A number of those teams did this while competing last year and NONE of those teams had as deep a farm system as the Indians and NONE of those teams had as bad a record as the Indians. While this is a small sample size we know there were guys (Josh Rodriguez, Jared Goedert, Jose Constanza, Ezeqiuel Carrera, Josh Judy, Zach Putnam) who could have gotten their first big league exposure. All of these guys were either added to the 40-man over the winter, should have been added or were, like Constanza, easily replaceable as shown by them becoming minor league FAs and being lost anyway.
This repeated dissing of your own prospects who have performed in favor of AAAA guys and minor leaguers who don't deserve to be called up based on performance (remember Nuiman Romero being called up in 2009 instead of Jordan Brown?) is just a real drain on the energy of your minor league organization. In the business world this generally leads to a mass exodus of your up-and-coming employees. Baseball's rules preclude that exodus so, like sometimes happen in business, people just make that exodus with their mind, mailing it in instead of working to get better.
That is the current situation with the Cleveland Indians. I hope it changes some day soon. However, I don't hold out much hope it will. It's just a question of who the next Jordan Brown or Jess Todd is. While Jordan Brown and Jess Todd are not great losses on paper, when you look at what we have in the majors and what we were projected to do this year, it is hard to believe that we lost those two guys without giving them a real shot.
The Indians have not given these guys a chance. However, neither of them recently has proven the Indians wrong.
I think, though, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. They think a guy is worthless, they diss him at every opportunity and that guy, being down, doesn't accept the demotion well and doesn't perform well when demoted. That latter part is on the player. It IS part of makeup but you have to give a guy a chance, especially instead of piling unneeded AAAA guys in front of him.
That's what happened to both Todd and Brown and a slew of minor leaguers before them.
The Indians need to change their philosophy, at least in my opinion. The Indians had 8 guys who made their ML debuts last year. There were 6 teams with more players making their ML debuts and 3 teams with the same number (8) making their ML debuts. A number of those teams did this while competing last year and NONE of those teams had as deep a farm system as the Indians and NONE of those teams had as bad a record as the Indians. While this is a small sample size we know there were guys (Josh Rodriguez, Jared Goedert, Jose Constanza, Ezeqiuel Carrera, Josh Judy, Zach Putnam) who could have gotten their first big league exposure. All of these guys were either added to the 40-man over the winter, should have been added or were, like Constanza, easily replaceable as shown by them becoming minor league FAs and being lost anyway.
This repeated dissing of your own prospects who have performed in favor of AAAA guys and minor leaguers who don't deserve to be called up based on performance (remember Nuiman Romero being called up in 2009 instead of Jordan Brown?) is just a real drain on the energy of your minor league organization. In the business world this generally leads to a mass exodus of your up-and-coming employees. Baseball's rules preclude that exodus so, like sometimes happen in business, people just make that exodus with their mind, mailing it in instead of working to get better.
That is the current situation with the Cleveland Indians. I hope it changes some day soon. However, I don't hold out much hope it will. It's just a question of who the next Jordan Brown or Jess Todd is. While Jordan Brown and Jess Todd are not great losses on paper, when you look at what we have in the majors and what we were projected to do this year, it is hard to believe that we lost those two guys without giving them a real shot.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
the end of an era
Notice that nothing is capitalized in the title.
That's because it's an era that never was!
Jordan Brown was traded on Saturday to the Brewers for "cash considerations". Basically, he was given away. He got about as much chance as Jeremy Guthrie and was thought of as highly as Brandon Phillips by the organization.
That pretty much tells you everything you need to know about this situation.
I have waited to comment on this until I thought about it a little. Good luck to Jordan Brown. He was never going to get a chance in Cleveland, not as long as there were broken down veteran AAAA players to be had. Truth is, injuries may have sucked the life out of his ability, just like it did for Michael Aubrey and Matt Whitney. He was only having a middling season with Columbus. Guys like Jordan Brown don't have any trade value so your typical, average GM can't get anything for him, but they are GREAT pickups. I wish every AAAA player on our AAA roster was replaced by a guy like Jordan Brown, a guy who still has some life left in him and hasn't failed at multiple ML opportunities.
Shrewd move by Milwaukee. Just like Cincinnati made a shrewd move a few years ago in giving career minor leaguer Jeff Stevens to the Indians for Phillips. Hey, if it doesn't work out it isn't that bad of a trade as you gave away very little.
Not saying Brown will turn out to be anything more than the next Chad Huffman or Travis Buck, but he is the kind of guy I would want to give a shot to. Maybe some organization that doesn't treasure AAAA guys will give him a shot and he will make it.
See ya, never knew ya, good luck to ya.
That's because it's an era that never was!
Jordan Brown was traded on Saturday to the Brewers for "cash considerations". Basically, he was given away. He got about as much chance as Jeremy Guthrie and was thought of as highly as Brandon Phillips by the organization.
That pretty much tells you everything you need to know about this situation.
I have waited to comment on this until I thought about it a little. Good luck to Jordan Brown. He was never going to get a chance in Cleveland, not as long as there were broken down veteran AAAA players to be had. Truth is, injuries may have sucked the life out of his ability, just like it did for Michael Aubrey and Matt Whitney. He was only having a middling season with Columbus. Guys like Jordan Brown don't have any trade value so your typical, average GM can't get anything for him, but they are GREAT pickups. I wish every AAAA player on our AAA roster was replaced by a guy like Jordan Brown, a guy who still has some life left in him and hasn't failed at multiple ML opportunities.
Shrewd move by Milwaukee. Just like Cincinnati made a shrewd move a few years ago in giving career minor leaguer Jeff Stevens to the Indians for Phillips. Hey, if it doesn't work out it isn't that bad of a trade as you gave away very little.
Not saying Brown will turn out to be anything more than the next Chad Huffman or Travis Buck, but he is the kind of guy I would want to give a shot to. Maybe some organization that doesn't treasure AAAA guys will give him a shot and he will make it.
See ya, never knew ya, good luck to ya.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Musings from a Tuesday night
Looking at 5 of his 6 starts since his disastrous opening day, Fausto has given up 6 earned runs total. Each has been a quality start. In his worst start since opening day he gave up 6 ER in 5 innings against Minnesota. His ERA since that first start is under 3.00, even with the mediocre start in Minnesota. If he continues at this pace he should be the ace that we have been looking for.
The magic continues and, at least tonight, wasn't even affected by Liriano's no-hitter. Every team in the division but Chicago won and the Tigers were playing the Yankees. Wow, who would have bet after the first two games of the opening series that Chicago would 10.5 games behind the Indians on the 3rd of May?
I think a lot of fans have noticed but the parallels between the Indians' start this season and the Clippers' start, especially game-to-game in the past week or so buth they are amazingly similar. Indians pick it up at the end from a 1-1 tie tonight and so do the Clippers. Zach McAllister is throwing strikes and remains a good option. I would love to see us swap McAllister for Jeanmar Gomez who I still contend needs more seasoning in the way Carlos Carrasco needed it.
Guys to watch in may: Abner Abreu, Giovanny Urshela,
Cole Cook has shown some good signs recently at LC and Michael Goodnight is living up to his name. Kyle Blair is looking solid but 4 HR balls in 24 innings against inexperienced competition is not a good sign. Time will tell if he will settle in and lower the HRs and up the Ks.
Cory Burns came back to earth the last night but his K numbers and those of Nick Hagadone are outstanding.
Speaking of good K numbers, Carlton Smith is putting himself on the prospect map and helped his cause by striking out the side in the 9th tonight. It would be great if he made it to the majors as his highly drafted brother Cory just hasn't been able to do that.
Zach Putnam is making some noise, as well.
Although Josh Judy has struggled look for him to be lights out as the weather warms up. I think his slow start is nothing to worry about and he should be looking real good come August 1st.
Looking over the most recent minor league stats here is what stands out for me:
The magic continues and, at least tonight, wasn't even affected by Liriano's no-hitter. Every team in the division but Chicago won and the Tigers were playing the Yankees. Wow, who would have bet after the first two games of the opening series that Chicago would 10.5 games behind the Indians on the 3rd of May?
I think a lot of fans have noticed but the parallels between the Indians' start this season and the Clippers' start, especially game-to-game in the past week or so buth they are amazingly similar. Indians pick it up at the end from a 1-1 tie tonight and so do the Clippers. Zach McAllister is throwing strikes and remains a good option. I would love to see us swap McAllister for Jeanmar Gomez who I still contend needs more seasoning in the way Carlos Carrasco needed it.
Guys to watch in may: Abner Abreu, Giovanny Urshela,
Cole Cook has shown some good signs recently at LC and Michael Goodnight is living up to his name. Kyle Blair is looking solid but 4 HR balls in 24 innings against inexperienced competition is not a good sign. Time will tell if he will settle in and lower the HRs and up the Ks.
Cory Burns came back to earth the last night but his K numbers and those of Nick Hagadone are outstanding.
Speaking of good K numbers, Carlton Smith is putting himself on the prospect map and helped his cause by striking out the side in the 9th tonight. It would be great if he made it to the majors as his highly drafted brother Cory just hasn't been able to do that.
Zach Putnam is making some noise, as well.
Although Josh Judy has struggled look for him to be lights out as the weather warms up. I think his slow start is nothing to worry about and he should be looking real good come August 1st.
Looking over the most recent minor league stats here is what stands out for me:
- Luke Carlin is tearing it up, and in the clutch, too. Ther might be something there with him as a lefty backup catcher yet.
- It will be interesting to see who gets up to the majors first: Donald or Cord Phelps. Phelps brings nothing special to the table but he could get the first shot.
- Chen is starting to heat it up in AA
- Is Juan Diaz for real? Time will tell but 3 HR in 90 AB in Akron for a SS is exciting.
- Overall we have a lack of power and an abundance of potential ML relievers and a number of starting pitching. We need some of the hitters to step up. It looks like we have a bunch of banjo-hitting left fielders who can, in a pinch, play center. Oh where, oh where are you Nick Weglarz and Beau Mills.
- I like what I see of Alex Monsalve and Giovanny Urshela so far at LC but, as Jason Smit can probably tell you, low A numbers are probably the most deceiving of any minor league level including rookie ball.
- Keep an eye on Carlos Moncrief. His stats and background remind me on Jonathon Van Every who continues to get cups of coffee in the majors. I always have loved JVE's skill set and Moncrief looks like he may be a statistical clone of JVE.
- Fans should be really excited to go see Lake County play. On any given night there is a good chance you will see a future Indians' ML pitcher starting or relieving in the game. That team is so loaded with potential it is unbelievable. Maybe those guys won't make it to the majors but this is about as exciting a team as I have seen in LC, pitching-wise. If Dischler ever gets it together and Jordan Cooper shakes off the rust, this could be a dominant pitching staff.
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