2012 Predictions - How did they work out?

Let's dust off my 2012 predictions and see how they worked out:

Cleveland Indians

Record: 70-92
MVP: Justin Masterson
Biggest Surprise: Lonnie Chisenhall
Biggest Disappointment: Ubaldo Jimenez

Result: I was within two games of this disaster as the Indians finished 88-94.  I think we will all agree that Jimenez was the biggest disappointment but Chisenhall getting hurt made that prediction impossible.   That Chris Perez (or his mouth) was really the MVP speaks volumes of why we collapsed.

Columbus Clippers 

This will be an interesting team.  On paper it is the best team, top to bottom, that the Clippers have had.  The starting pitching is great, the bullpen is deep, the position players are experienced and hungry and know, with a good performance, they stand a good chance to play in Cleveland this year. 

Record: 85-59
MVP: Lonnie Chisenhall
Biggest Disappointment: Matt LaPorta
Biggest Surprise: Beau Mills

Result:  Well my prediction was off as they didn't even make the playoffs.  They did finish 75-69 but their performance was relatively disappointing as was the performance of LaPorta (predicted) and the lack of performance/trade of Mills (not predicted)

Akron Aeros 

Akron will benefit from the position player backup at Columbus.  Their starting pitching will probably be weak but the bullpen is strong and the position players are mainly prospects with some talent who are, due to too many guys at AAA, are repeating this level.

Record: 83-61
MVP: Tim Fedroff, Jared Goedert
Biggest Surprise: Nick Weglarz, Rob Bryson
Biggest Disappointment: Kyle Bellows

Result:  They finished 82-59 so I was close there.  I was probably correct about the MVP if Fedroff and Goedert had stayed but was wrong about Weglarz, lukewarm regarding Bryson and dead on, in part due to injury, with Bellows.
Carolina Mudcats 

New team, same league, different results.  Carolina will finish with a 60-84 overall record and fail to make the playoffs. 

Record: 60-84
MVP: Carlos Moncrief
Biggest Surprise: Cody Allen, Carlos Moncrief, Ronny Rodriguez
Biggest Disappointment: Tyler Holt, Jake Lowery, Tony Wolters (only because of his age)

Results: Again, close with the finish, they finished 63-77.  Not close with the MVP as Moncrief didn't come on as I expected.  Close with biggest surprise with Cody Allen and Ronny Rodriguez.  Very close with the bigget disappointment being Lowery, lukewarm on Holt and wrong on Wolters as he exceeded my expectations.

Lake County

Same team, different year, different result.  This team will sizzle this year.  All the guys who underperformed there last year will perform very well this year. 

Record: 90-54

MVP: Felix Sterling, LeVon Washington
Biggest Surprise: LeVon Washington, Alex Lavisky, Kyle Blair
Biggest Disappointment: Francisco Lindor (he is too young and inexperienced to be here, just like Lavisky was last year)

Results: They only finished 71-68 and when you look at my MVP candidates and biggest surprise candidates you can see why.  I also was way wrong on LIndor although his offense was just passable, even for his age at this level.   They did make it to the second round of the playoffs, however, and were tied after 6 innings of the deciding game in that round until Pasquale imploded. 

So, there you have it.  Not a bad set of predictions for 2012.  Maybe I am getting better at this stuff or maybe I was just lucky this year.

One game left and still drama

One game left and the top of the 2013 draft order is taking shape.  Right now we know this about that order:

1. Houston
2. Cubs
3. Colorado
4. Minnesota
5. Cleveland  with a magic number of 1 (that is, one victory by Florida or one loss by Cleveland)
6. Miami, unless they lose and Cleveland wins tomorrow; if they lose they have 6th place even if Cleveland loses
7. Boston, even with their 9 losses in 10 games slide, they still can only tie Cleveland (the Indians win the tiebreaker based on worse record in 2011) so they can't sneak up to 5th but might be able to end up 6th with a loss and a Miami win. If they tie Miami, the Marlins with the 2011 record tiebreaker.
8. Kansas City Magic number 1 - a Kansas City loss or a Toronto win locks up this slot for them.
9. Toronto - Magic number of 1 (one loss or a Mets win)
10. Mets unless they lose and Toronto wins, in which case they tie Toronto and win the 2011 record tiebreaker..

The issue here is that this is the raw slotting.   MLB Trade Rumors is saying that the Pirates will slot in 9th since they couldn't sign Mark Appel last year and so right now, using that logic, Toronto is 10th and the Mets are 11th.  The significance of that is only the top 10 slots in the first round are protected if you sign a free agent away from a team that has made him a qualifying offer (i.e., a $12-13 million one year contract).  Therefore right now Toronto is 10th and the Mets are 11th if the Pittsburgh compensation pick really counts in that top 10. 

Right now that top 8 above are guaranteed to have a protected first round pick in 2013.  All the suspense that is left, and there is plenty of it, is who will pick 5th-10th next year and who will be the team that is left out of the top 10 due to Pittsburgh's compensation pick, if that pick even counts against the 10 protected picks in the first round.  It is funny that a compensation pick for not signing a draft pick which would be lost if not used this year, could be used against that top 10 but that is what Trade Rumors is reporting.

Who says there is no drama left this year!

We have 3 games to go and the 4th, 5th and 6th slots for next year's draft are still undecided (along with a bunch of other draft slots, of course). 

For those of you following this blog you know that I have been keeping a running tally along the left margin to update you on where the Indians stand.  This is also available on other sources, I am sure, one of those being mlbtraderumors.com.

Right now the Indians, on the heels of their 6-4 record in their last 10 games, have moved from the 4th slot in next year's draft to the 6th slot.  They are currently 0.5 games behind Miami who have moved up the draft ladder by going 1-9 in their last 10 games.   They are 1.5 games behind Minnesota who they have been battling over the last month for the 5th slot.

Miami finishes the season with three games against the Mets.  Minnesota finishes with 3 games against Toronto.  Cleveland finishes with three against the White Sox.  Thus you would say that Cleveland has the advantage as Chicago is the only one of the three opponents that has not been eliminated from the pennant race.  Unfortunately, due largely to the two games that the Tribe took last week from the White Sox in Chicago, the best the South Siders can do is tie for the AL Central Championship.  The Detroit's magic number of 1 it is likely that the second and third games of this series will have the White Sox playing their AA/AAA roster against the Indians at some point as those guys have probably not gotten much PT with the Sox still in the race. 

Also, Boston is two games "behind" the Indians at this point and if they lose all three and the Indians win all three Boston will pass Cleveland in the draft.

Why do we care about this?  Well, if you are going to suck, suck bad so you get the highest draft pick.  The higher the draft pick the better.  The one thing we found out last year is that the budgets for each slot in the draft go up exponentially, it seems.  Here are the budgets for the top 8 slots last year:

1. $7.2 million
2. $6.2 million
3. $5.2 million
4. $4.2 million
5. $3.5 million
6. $3.2 million
7. $3.0 million
8. $2.9 million

It's all about flexibility.  The difference between the 1st slot and the 4th slot in the first round is $3 million.  The difference between the 4th and 6th spot in the draft is $1 million.  So, the higher your budget, the more flexibility you have to save money if you draft a guy who will sign for under slot. The Indians did that this year in drafting Tyler Naquin and Kieran Lovegrove for less than slot and using that excess to sign Mitch Brown and D'Vonne McClure to overslot bonuses.  But still, you have more flexibility the higher you draft because the greater your budget, a lot of which is determined by your first round pick position.

If the Indians finish 4th and draft a player who they sign for $3.0 million or draft that same player 6th and they sign him for $3 million, the differeence is that they have $1 million extra to spend later on.  The talent of the player is the same, just your budget for that pick is higher.  Who wouldn't draft the more signable player 4th if you were going to draft him 6th?

Add to this that the draft this year will have fewer picks in it.  There will be fewer compensation picks as teams have to first MAKE a qualifying offer to a free agent to get any compensation.  That offer will be in the $13 million for a one year deal range so not many free agents will get that kind of offer.   In addition, if a player gets a qualifying offer and signs with another team his former team is compensated with a sandwich pick BUT the first (or second) round pick by the team that signed the player is just lost, it doesn't go to the team that lost the player. 

So, you are losing picks in the first and maybe second round due to teams signing free agents with qualifying offers and the compensation round, except for the competitive balance lottery winners (12 overall with the Indians getting a pick after the second round) is actually getting smaller so this draft should have less picks in the top 3 rounds than usual.  That means more prospects available in every round and the team with the most picks and the highest budget should be able, with shrewd drafting, to get better talent than its competition AND not be subject to any penalties.

Add to all that that your options are better the higher you draft in EVERY round and while the difference between 1st and 8th in the draft is huge, the difference between even 4th and 6th is significant.

So, while we yawn through the last series of the season and grimace while we watch Vinnie Rottino, Casey Kotchman, Jack Hannahan and even Thomas Neal get ABs they don't deserve, realize that the Indians are still playing for something. 

They are playing for flexibility in the 2013 draft.  Go Tribe!  Get some flexibility.