Tuesday, October 2, 2012

One game left and still drama

One game left and the top of the 2013 draft order is taking shape.  Right now we know this about that order:

1. Houston
2. Cubs
3. Colorado
4. Minnesota
5. Cleveland  with a magic number of 1 (that is, one victory by Florida or one loss by Cleveland)
6. Miami, unless they lose and Cleveland wins tomorrow; if they lose they have 6th place even if Cleveland loses
7. Boston, even with their 9 losses in 10 games slide, they still can only tie Cleveland (the Indians win the tiebreaker based on worse record in 2011) so they can't sneak up to 5th but might be able to end up 6th with a loss and a Miami win. If they tie Miami, the Marlins with the 2011 record tiebreaker.
8. Kansas City Magic number 1 - a Kansas City loss or a Toronto win locks up this slot for them.
9. Toronto - Magic number of 1 (one loss or a Mets win)
10. Mets unless they lose and Toronto wins, in which case they tie Toronto and win the 2011 record tiebreaker..

The issue here is that this is the raw slotting.   MLB Trade Rumors is saying that the Pirates will slot in 9th since they couldn't sign Mark Appel last year and so right now, using that logic, Toronto is 10th and the Mets are 11th.  The significance of that is only the top 10 slots in the first round are protected if you sign a free agent away from a team that has made him a qualifying offer (i.e., a $12-13 million one year contract).  Therefore right now Toronto is 10th and the Mets are 11th if the Pittsburgh compensation pick really counts in that top 10. 

Right now that top 8 above are guaranteed to have a protected first round pick in 2013.  All the suspense that is left, and there is plenty of it, is who will pick 5th-10th next year and who will be the team that is left out of the top 10 due to Pittsburgh's compensation pick, if that pick even counts against the 10 protected picks in the first round.  It is funny that a compensation pick for not signing a draft pick which would be lost if not used this year, could be used against that top 10 but that is what Trade Rumors is reporting.

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