OK, this speech is getting old, I know. But here is the Indians' bullpen
Closer: Cody Allen
Setup righty: Bryan Shaw (most used reliever in baseball the last 3 years)
Setup lefty: Andrew Miller (used very hard last year and playing in WBC, not a good combination)
6th inning righty: Dan Otero
LOOGY: Boone Logan
Long man: Zack McAllister
6th inning righty: Shawn Armstrong
Guys in the minors:
Non-roster invitees: Travis Barnwart, Steve Delabar, Tyler Olson, James Russell, Josh Martin, Chris Narveson
Perci Garner - potential flash in the pan candidate
Joseph Colon - came out of nowhere to play in the majors last year
Nick Goody - picked up on waivers
Kyle Crockett - not a lot of success in the big leagues
Hoby Milner - Rule 5 guy who we will probably lose now that we have Logan.
Minor league starters who might be used in the bullpen: Mike Clevinger, Carlos Frias.
Look, none of these other options is really anything more than an emergency, we need a warm body option. If any of these guys pitch significant innings out of the Indians bullpen the bullpen is in trouble. And, mark my words, 1-3 of these guys will pitch significant innings.
BOTTOM LINE: We have a very good bullpen that is among the most thin in baseball. One injury and we start dipping into guys who probably aren't good enough to be effective in the majors. Heck, Armstrong is iffy, to me, and he has this team made. After that.... We needed one more solid reliever, but we let all those guys get snatched up. The worst loss was Joe Blanton, not only for his ability but for his price, who is signing with the Nationals. He got a $4 million deal with $3 million of that deferred ($1 million in 2018 and $2 million in 2019). Basically, this guy, the Nats got a $1 million reliever with a two years history of really good success as a setup guy. Not a happy day for me and a day I am almost positive the Indians are going to regret.
Tuesday, February 28, 2017
Tuesday, February 21, 2017
the 'lost' prospects - early thoughts
Yeah, I thought early retirement would bring lots of trips to Indians' spring training. Two years in and with kids still at home it hasn't worked out that way. Since the only way I see spring break in Arizona happening would be the unthinkable of California falling into the Pacific and Phoenix becoming the new San Diego, I can only watch from afar and ask some questions.
Anyone who knows me knows that I am a prospect guy. So I thought today we would talk about the 'lost' prospects. That is, guys who have the potential for becoming good prospects but who have been derailed by injuries or poor performance but who still have a chance.
So here are some guys to keep an eye on as the minor league spring training camp opens. Any or all of these guys could break out this year as they have the pedigrees to do much more than they have done previously.
Luke Wakamatsu - Non-Latin middle infield prospects are a rarity. Wakamatsu grades out as a plus defender. Drafted in 2015 he spent most of last year injured and so has lots to make up this year, although he did get some ABs at MV last year. If he is healthy, he could start to make some waves this year. The Indians tend to aggressively push their prospects so while he is likely to stay in extended spring training for a while, starting out the season at Lake County is not out of the question.
Jonas Wyatt - A 6th round pick in 2015, he had TJ surgery last June and so is likely to spend the spring in extended spring training. TJ surgery is bad anytime as it sets back a player's development for a year, but his timetable is actually perfect to start his playing season in June with the AZL Indians. It will be interesting to see if he can advance to Mahoning Valley during the season or if he needs the whole summer to get his pitching back on track.
Ka'ai Tom - Didn't play much last year due to injury but clearly is on the Indians radar. He may just be a good career minor leaguer but he has some upside. Think somewhere between Greg Allen and Gabriel Mejia. He should start the season with Lynchburg this year as the Indians push him to catch up with his draft class and, if he starts strong, look for a promotion to Akron in the second half of the season. I see him as no more than a potential ML 4th outfielder now but he still has at least that upside to me.
Dace Kime - Realizing that he might not even make it out of spring training this year without getting cut, Kime is a guy who still intrigues me as a reliever. He has been dangerously wild, almost to the point that you can't believe he actually pitched at a major college (Louisville) let alone effectively. He has regressed almost each year since he was drafted in 2013. The Indians may have made a mistake putting him in the rotation when they could have easily fast-tracked him to the majors as a reliever. His professional baseball career may be over but, for me, he is still one helluva intriguing prospect if he can ever put it all together.
Justin Garza - The 2015 version drafted out of Cal State Fullerton. He was a top 100 college prospect entering his junior year at Fullerton but hurt his elbow and had TJ surgery late in the year, allowing the Indians to 'steal' him in the 8th round. The Indians have a history of rehabbing college pitches they steal in the draft (see Vinnie Pestano for example). Garza dipped his toe in the water last year with the AZL Indians. He was a little wild which is typical of the first post-TJ surgery year. This year his is poised to pitch on a full season team although the Indians may hold him in extended spring training for a month or so until the weather warms up. Either way, he is one of my picks as a breakout prospect this year. His stuff and experience tells me that, if healthy, he should dominate at Lake County or hold his own at Lynchburg. Either way he should open some eyes and get into the top 30 Indians' prospects this coming winter. It might also mean that we could have to invoke his middle initial to distinguish Justin C. Garza from the Indians other Justin Garza, who would then be known as, well, just Justin Garza. The later Justin Garza pitched relatively effectively at Lynchburg last year so it is likely that both Justin Garzas will play this year.
Grant Hockin - Hockin was drafted in 2014, had TJ surgery and didn't play in 2015 and didn't play last year. He was on the instructional league roster last fall so maybe his re-debut will be this year. I thought I heard he had considered retirement but I couldn't verify if he was still with the Indians. Given his pedigree (2nd round pick, related to Harmon Killebrew), if he is still playing and healthy he is a potential breakout prospect this year and, given his time off and his assignment to the instructional league last year, is a dark horse candidate to make the Lake County roster out of spring training. Hockin just getting in a complete, healthy season will be a big plus.
Anyone who knows me knows that I am a prospect guy. So I thought today we would talk about the 'lost' prospects. That is, guys who have the potential for becoming good prospects but who have been derailed by injuries or poor performance but who still have a chance.
So here are some guys to keep an eye on as the minor league spring training camp opens. Any or all of these guys could break out this year as they have the pedigrees to do much more than they have done previously.
Luke Wakamatsu - Non-Latin middle infield prospects are a rarity. Wakamatsu grades out as a plus defender. Drafted in 2015 he spent most of last year injured and so has lots to make up this year, although he did get some ABs at MV last year. If he is healthy, he could start to make some waves this year. The Indians tend to aggressively push their prospects so while he is likely to stay in extended spring training for a while, starting out the season at Lake County is not out of the question.
Jonas Wyatt - A 6th round pick in 2015, he had TJ surgery last June and so is likely to spend the spring in extended spring training. TJ surgery is bad anytime as it sets back a player's development for a year, but his timetable is actually perfect to start his playing season in June with the AZL Indians. It will be interesting to see if he can advance to Mahoning Valley during the season or if he needs the whole summer to get his pitching back on track.
Ka'ai Tom - Didn't play much last year due to injury but clearly is on the Indians radar. He may just be a good career minor leaguer but he has some upside. Think somewhere between Greg Allen and Gabriel Mejia. He should start the season with Lynchburg this year as the Indians push him to catch up with his draft class and, if he starts strong, look for a promotion to Akron in the second half of the season. I see him as no more than a potential ML 4th outfielder now but he still has at least that upside to me.
Dace Kime - Realizing that he might not even make it out of spring training this year without getting cut, Kime is a guy who still intrigues me as a reliever. He has been dangerously wild, almost to the point that you can't believe he actually pitched at a major college (Louisville) let alone effectively. He has regressed almost each year since he was drafted in 2013. The Indians may have made a mistake putting him in the rotation when they could have easily fast-tracked him to the majors as a reliever. His professional baseball career may be over but, for me, he is still one helluva intriguing prospect if he can ever put it all together.
Justin Garza - The 2015 version drafted out of Cal State Fullerton. He was a top 100 college prospect entering his junior year at Fullerton but hurt his elbow and had TJ surgery late in the year, allowing the Indians to 'steal' him in the 8th round. The Indians have a history of rehabbing college pitches they steal in the draft (see Vinnie Pestano for example). Garza dipped his toe in the water last year with the AZL Indians. He was a little wild which is typical of the first post-TJ surgery year. This year his is poised to pitch on a full season team although the Indians may hold him in extended spring training for a month or so until the weather warms up. Either way, he is one of my picks as a breakout prospect this year. His stuff and experience tells me that, if healthy, he should dominate at Lake County or hold his own at Lynchburg. Either way he should open some eyes and get into the top 30 Indians' prospects this coming winter. It might also mean that we could have to invoke his middle initial to distinguish Justin C. Garza from the Indians other Justin Garza, who would then be known as, well, just Justin Garza. The later Justin Garza pitched relatively effectively at Lynchburg last year so it is likely that both Justin Garzas will play this year.
Grant Hockin - Hockin was drafted in 2014, had TJ surgery and didn't play in 2015 and didn't play last year. He was on the instructional league roster last fall so maybe his re-debut will be this year. I thought I heard he had considered retirement but I couldn't verify if he was still with the Indians. Given his pedigree (2nd round pick, related to Harmon Killebrew), if he is still playing and healthy he is a potential breakout prospect this year and, given his time off and his assignment to the instructional league last year, is a dark horse candidate to make the Lake County roster out of spring training. Hockin just getting in a complete, healthy season will be a big plus.
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
OK, we're in February, but that won't stop me...first look at how the season might go
Tito has already been quoted as saying the season could go two ways. Make that 250 ways, Mr. manager.
He knows that, we all know that, but the point is clear as is the question: what will last year do to this year.
Using the Cavs as an example, they rode Kevin Love's and Kyrie Irving's injury to the NBA finals in 2015, actually and unlikely, winning two games from the Warriors. Did they use that in 2016 when they came back from a 3-1 deficit to win the whole thing? I think so. Don't know so but I think so.
If the Indians do the same thing it will be a very powerful force this year. It will be that way for two reasons:
1. Because no team is without injuries. St. Louis has already lost probably the brightest pitching prospect and a guy who likely would have slotted into #3 in their rotation, Alex Reyes, to TJ surgery before the first full team workout. Injuries happen and most teams can't stockpile enough talent to totally overcome those injuries. The Indians learned last year that they can win without their entire team being healthy and, given how frequently injuries happen, that was a good lesson.
2. The Indians are thin offensively but, nevertheless, strong on paper in their starting lineup. If Brantley comes back at full strength, playing like he did before the shoulder injury, this should make the team feel even better about itself. Winning games isn't all about pitching or all about hitting or all about defense. The Indians have the combination of talent to win with pitching one night and hitting the next. That will be important if we have pitching injuries and have to rely on young guys.
3. The season is a grind. As LeBron and company are finding out, you have to find different ways to win depending on your team situation that day. Different guys have to step up. The Indians are set to be able to do that. They really need only two things: a shut down righthanded reliever now, and a 3B or OF bat in July. They could get hurt if they have a lot of injuries but this team is set to compete over the season in a situation where the season would become a grind.
4. Some fans are worried about a let down after last year or that it was just a mirage that can't be sustained. Such is true with the bookies, as well. What no one is talking about is that there are likely to be guys who break out this year. I would love to see guys like Trevor Bauer and Bradley Zimmer break out and Yan Gomes return to his form of a few years ago. I would love to add Brantley's bat back to this lineup. As we look at this season we can't be thinking that we are talking about the WS team plus Carrasco and Salazar and substituting Encarnacion for Napoli and Davis. I think it could be much more than that and, in my heart, I feel it will be much more than that.
5. The ONLY thing I see going wrong with the Indians this season is post-season cockiness. What do I mean by that? I think the 1996 Indians were a perfect example. I don't think they thought they could be beaten in the AL playoffs but they were. If we make it to the playoffs is where we have to turn up the heat. Again, using the Cavaliers example, they know that losing some regular season games happens but that they are really preparing for the playoffs. The Indians need to adopt that mentality. They have to battle through the regular season and focus on turning it up in the playoffs. No post-season cockiness, please! I don't see that happening with this group but, to me, it is the biggest fear I have going into the Indians' season. I am counting on Tito to take care of preparing his team for both the regular season and, if we get there, the playoffs, too.
So, my bet is for Tito to do what he does and manage this team to win no matter what the cards are that he is dealt. I think they make the playoffs again and if things fall right for them they make it back to the WS again. Once you get to the Series it is how things break for you. I believe in Tito and I believe in this team and I believe they can win the series this year. Let's go Tribe!
He knows that, we all know that, but the point is clear as is the question: what will last year do to this year.
Using the Cavs as an example, they rode Kevin Love's and Kyrie Irving's injury to the NBA finals in 2015, actually and unlikely, winning two games from the Warriors. Did they use that in 2016 when they came back from a 3-1 deficit to win the whole thing? I think so. Don't know so but I think so.
If the Indians do the same thing it will be a very powerful force this year. It will be that way for two reasons:
1. Because no team is without injuries. St. Louis has already lost probably the brightest pitching prospect and a guy who likely would have slotted into #3 in their rotation, Alex Reyes, to TJ surgery before the first full team workout. Injuries happen and most teams can't stockpile enough talent to totally overcome those injuries. The Indians learned last year that they can win without their entire team being healthy and, given how frequently injuries happen, that was a good lesson.
2. The Indians are thin offensively but, nevertheless, strong on paper in their starting lineup. If Brantley comes back at full strength, playing like he did before the shoulder injury, this should make the team feel even better about itself. Winning games isn't all about pitching or all about hitting or all about defense. The Indians have the combination of talent to win with pitching one night and hitting the next. That will be important if we have pitching injuries and have to rely on young guys.
3. The season is a grind. As LeBron and company are finding out, you have to find different ways to win depending on your team situation that day. Different guys have to step up. The Indians are set to be able to do that. They really need only two things: a shut down righthanded reliever now, and a 3B or OF bat in July. They could get hurt if they have a lot of injuries but this team is set to compete over the season in a situation where the season would become a grind.
4. Some fans are worried about a let down after last year or that it was just a mirage that can't be sustained. Such is true with the bookies, as well. What no one is talking about is that there are likely to be guys who break out this year. I would love to see guys like Trevor Bauer and Bradley Zimmer break out and Yan Gomes return to his form of a few years ago. I would love to add Brantley's bat back to this lineup. As we look at this season we can't be thinking that we are talking about the WS team plus Carrasco and Salazar and substituting Encarnacion for Napoli and Davis. I think it could be much more than that and, in my heart, I feel it will be much more than that.
5. The ONLY thing I see going wrong with the Indians this season is post-season cockiness. What do I mean by that? I think the 1996 Indians were a perfect example. I don't think they thought they could be beaten in the AL playoffs but they were. If we make it to the playoffs is where we have to turn up the heat. Again, using the Cavaliers example, they know that losing some regular season games happens but that they are really preparing for the playoffs. The Indians need to adopt that mentality. They have to battle through the regular season and focus on turning it up in the playoffs. No post-season cockiness, please! I don't see that happening with this group but, to me, it is the biggest fear I have going into the Indians' season. I am counting on Tito to take care of preparing his team for both the regular season and, if we get there, the playoffs, too.
So, my bet is for Tito to do what he does and manage this team to win no matter what the cards are that he is dealt. I think they make the playoffs again and if things fall right for them they make it back to the WS again. Once you get to the Series it is how things break for you. I believe in Tito and I believe in this team and I believe they can win the series this year. Let's go Tribe!
Monday, February 13, 2017
Spring training 2017
A couple of thoughts as we start spring training:
1. The Indians have 5 solid starting pitchers and 4 solid prospects (5, counting Cooney) who will start the year at AAA. That gives them impressive quality and depth. Which means, of course, starting pitching will be a weakness this year :-)
2. The big question marks this year will among the position players. Will Brantley be healthy? Is Jose Ramirez for real? Will Tyler Naquin be the regular season Tyler Naquin or the post-season Tyler Naquin? Plus, where will our depth come from if we lose a starting position player? Along those lines, will Bradley Zimmer or Yandy Diaz contribute this year? So, we still have some position player questions. But here are some more questions:
3. Will we get another bullpen arm? We need one and, as of this writing, Joe Blanton is still available as are a number of other guys (e.g, Carlos Villenueva) who could be had on a minor league deal. There is also Travis Wood, who would be great in the bullpen and as our #1 depth starter. Plus, with Andrew Miller playing in the WBC, it might be a good thing for the Indians to protect that investment by adding Wood. While we can wait to add a bat until July, we need to add a bullpen arm now. So Wood (preferably) or Blanton, but someone now.
4. What will happen to Kyle Crockett and Hoby Milner this spring training? Now that we have Boone Logan and given that both Crockett and Milner need to be kept on the roster or exposed to waivers, does either have a shot? Crockett is out of options and the other two guys who were going into ST without options and without a definite spot on the ML team were Austin Adams and Jesus Aguilar and we saw how that turned out. Obviously Milner is a Rule 5 pickup so we either have to keep him on the roster or send him back.
5. When will we get the extra bat we need? Face it, this teams needs a good hitter who can either play 3B or OF. They don't need it now but will need him by playoff time. So when will get that player? Obviously we should and will wait until July. For a change I am anxious for the trade deadline to get here so I can see who we add as compared to who we get rid of...but I get ahead of myself!
1. The Indians have 5 solid starting pitchers and 4 solid prospects (5, counting Cooney) who will start the year at AAA. That gives them impressive quality and depth. Which means, of course, starting pitching will be a weakness this year :-)
2. The big question marks this year will among the position players. Will Brantley be healthy? Is Jose Ramirez for real? Will Tyler Naquin be the regular season Tyler Naquin or the post-season Tyler Naquin? Plus, where will our depth come from if we lose a starting position player? Along those lines, will Bradley Zimmer or Yandy Diaz contribute this year? So, we still have some position player questions. But here are some more questions:
3. Will we get another bullpen arm? We need one and, as of this writing, Joe Blanton is still available as are a number of other guys (e.g, Carlos Villenueva) who could be had on a minor league deal. There is also Travis Wood, who would be great in the bullpen and as our #1 depth starter. Plus, with Andrew Miller playing in the WBC, it might be a good thing for the Indians to protect that investment by adding Wood. While we can wait to add a bat until July, we need to add a bullpen arm now. So Wood (preferably) or Blanton, but someone now.
4. What will happen to Kyle Crockett and Hoby Milner this spring training? Now that we have Boone Logan and given that both Crockett and Milner need to be kept on the roster or exposed to waivers, does either have a shot? Crockett is out of options and the other two guys who were going into ST without options and without a definite spot on the ML team were Austin Adams and Jesus Aguilar and we saw how that turned out. Obviously Milner is a Rule 5 pickup so we either have to keep him on the roster or send him back.
5. When will we get the extra bat we need? Face it, this teams needs a good hitter who can either play 3B or OF. They don't need it now but will need him by playoff time. So when will get that player? Obviously we should and will wait until July. For a change I am anxious for the trade deadline to get here so I can see who we add as compared to who we get rid of...but I get ahead of myself!
Thursday, February 2, 2017
One down, one to go
Besides the obvious Napoli or Napoli replacement, the Indians absolutely needed to do two things this offseason, in my opnion:
1. Sign a LOOGY.
2. Sign a reliable RH setup guy who can close, if necessary.
Both of these moves are designed to save Miller, Allen and Shaw over the course of a season.
We are now halfway there if Boone Logan signs as expected. Again, as expected, his salary will be about $6 million, counting the buyout for next year. That's pretty much the cost of a good, non-closer reliever in free agency this year.
It is costly but it is only for one year if we want to limit the spending for 2018.
Is this a good signing? Who knows. Back in the day relievers would go through cycles of a couple of good years, a bad year, a good year, a bad year and two good years, etc. So, you are hoping you are getting Logan in a good year but, really, who knows. It is as good a signing as you could have for what you were looking for. I like it...as much as I could like a signing like this.
Now, to the setup man. With Greg Holland gone (along with a lot of other RH relievers with closing experience) my next target is some like (not necessarily exactly) Joe Blanton.
As I have said, probably ad nauseum to regular readers of this blog, we need a reliable setup man, someone who is a significant upgrade over Jeff Manship, someone who can even give us good innings if we make the post-season. Someone who doesn't make us so scared that we won't use him in the post-season in anything but mop-up/inning eating situations.
Again, I can not say this strongly enough. Having another setup man who can close is NOT a luxury. It is a necessity for this team to save our bullpen. Yes, we might be able to make the playoffs with one or two of the big three not available. However, in the playoffs, it would be like LeBron trying to beat Golden State all by himself...and we know how that went two years ago!
So, we are batting .667. However, to make this offseason successful, we need to bat 1.000.
Then, in July, we need to get another bat, either at 3B or in the OF. But that is a discussion for a MUCH later date.
1. Sign a LOOGY.
2. Sign a reliable RH setup guy who can close, if necessary.
Both of these moves are designed to save Miller, Allen and Shaw over the course of a season.
We are now halfway there if Boone Logan signs as expected. Again, as expected, his salary will be about $6 million, counting the buyout for next year. That's pretty much the cost of a good, non-closer reliever in free agency this year.
It is costly but it is only for one year if we want to limit the spending for 2018.
Is this a good signing? Who knows. Back in the day relievers would go through cycles of a couple of good years, a bad year, a good year, a bad year and two good years, etc. So, you are hoping you are getting Logan in a good year but, really, who knows. It is as good a signing as you could have for what you were looking for. I like it...as much as I could like a signing like this.
Now, to the setup man. With Greg Holland gone (along with a lot of other RH relievers with closing experience) my next target is some like (not necessarily exactly) Joe Blanton.
As I have said, probably ad nauseum to regular readers of this blog, we need a reliable setup man, someone who is a significant upgrade over Jeff Manship, someone who can even give us good innings if we make the post-season. Someone who doesn't make us so scared that we won't use him in the post-season in anything but mop-up/inning eating situations.
Again, I can not say this strongly enough. Having another setup man who can close is NOT a luxury. It is a necessity for this team to save our bullpen. Yes, we might be able to make the playoffs with one or two of the big three not available. However, in the playoffs, it would be like LeBron trying to beat Golden State all by himself...and we know how that went two years ago!
So, we are batting .667. However, to make this offseason successful, we need to bat 1.000.
Then, in July, we need to get another bat, either at 3B or in the OF. But that is a discussion for a MUCH later date.
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