A snapshot almost 4 weeks in

Cleveland

• Bullpen solid as ever
• Starters going deep into games and giving us quality starts and/or a good chance to win
• Santana, Encarnacion, catchers not in tune yet.  Lindor and Ramirez smokin' it

Columbus

• Starting pitching
• Gonzalez, Naquin, Diaz not letting demotions get them down, giving us GREAT depth
• Zimmer looks like he might be ready by July
• Urshela may have something left in the tank given great BB/AB and good K/B rate.
• Starting pitching, outside of Clevinger who has been good, has looked surprisingly bad to abysmal.
• Bullpen has OK depth of homegrown guys, many of whom have been to Cleveland.   I just like that better than rent-a-guy depth.  It just makes me feel better about the player development system.

Akron

• Mejia has been as or more than advertised.
• Allen has been as advertised, Krieger a little surprising
• Papi may be better than I thought as he is hitting this well, this late into the season for maybe the first time
• Chang, Bradley struggling
• Peoples, Lugo and Merryweather - I think there may be something there that wasn't there before.
• Relievers, especially Hill, may have some upside

Lynchburg

• Sam Haggerty, what the heck?   You can't stop him, all you can hope to do is contain him.  No way would I have predicted this kind of start.  He just looks like he is a boy among men in this league....and he is not that old for the league, either, especially as a college guy.
• I would have never guessed that this team would have so many guys hitting above .250 at this point with arguably the three best position player prospects on the team, Calica, Castro, Salters and Marabell, not reaching that level yet.
• Thomas Pannone, what the heck, part deux?  His numbers (WHIP, K/IP) are just eye-popping. He is not THAT old for this level.
• McKenzie, Esparza and Chiang also look really good so far.  
• Bullpen may have some guys (e.g. Linares) who may break on the scene this year. 

Lake County

• Jury still out on whether any hitting prospects exist on this team.  Disappointing start for Gabe Mejia
• Starting pitching not as dominant as I would have expected although only the Aiken/Garza piggyback and Juan Hillman has been really concerning so far, with Hillman just looking like his mechanics have deserted him.  The rest are just not as dominating as I thought there would be.
• The bullpen has made me smile.  Guys pitching as good as possible with 5 guys with ERAs of under 3.

Indians have not hit their stride yet but are doing OK.   Minor league teams are predictably struggling given the talent on those teams.  Still, most of the prospects on these teams are doing well and we have as many surprises as disappointments at this point and that is a GOOD thing.

Sign him up!

OK, from Mike Chernoff's son to the most casual of Indians' fans I think we are all in agreement:

Sign Francisco Lindor to a long-term extension.

Here is how it should go:

10 years - $201 million

2017 - $5 million signing bonus
2018 - $10 million
2019 - $12.5 million
2020 - $15 million
2021 - $17.5 million
2022 - $20 million
2023 - $20 million
2024 - $25 million
2025 - $25 million
2026 - $25 million
2027 - $25 million
2018 - Mutual $25 million option, $1 million buyout

I have never advocated for long-term contracts but this kid needs to stay as an Indian.  If he stays healthy and motivated, he could have a statue next to Feller's some day. 

Get it done Indians.   Get it done Lindor/Lindor's agent.

The Case to SIgn Luis Robert

OK, I just looked in my wallet and I have $22 so I don't think I would be much help.   Yeah, there are a couple of credit cards but I checked my limit and I don't think, even if I max them out, that would make much of a dent, either.

So, when I say what I am about to say I am playing with someone else's money.  

Nevertheless, the Indians need to sign Luis Robert.  Period.

Remember that the Indians will not have a first round pick this year and, likely, will get a low competitive balance pick meaning their first two picks will be at the end of the second round and after it.  Teams can save money in the first round if they get their draftee to sign for below slot.  But we don't have a first round pick and our second round pick will be low enough that the bonus slot for that pick is pretty low.  So, in essence, they will have very little money to play with in the draft this year. 

Cleveland is and always will be a small market team.   We need to build from within and so we need to keep the pipeline of prospects coming.   A draft year such as this (loss of a first round pick and low second round slot) can really put a hole in that pipeline.    So we need to augment our lack of first round pick with a first round amateur talent like Robert and augment that with a high profile foreign professional signing after the season. 

The Indians have never come close to signing the top international amateur prospect except for maybe Danys Baez.     It is time for the Indians not to just dip their toe in that water but to do a belly flop from the high board into their international bonus pool.     This is the year to do it and shopping in the bargain basement at Macy's is not going to  get us there. 

Sign Robert.  Please. 

April 18th - Tax day not too taxing at all

Good pitching dominates for the Indians and their affiliates tonight.

Columbus - Ryan Merritt and relievers pitch a shutout.  Merritt with a bounceback performance that puts his ERA squarely back into Merritt country.

Akron - The bullpen failed but DJ Brown was solid, albeit not out there lon enough. 

Lynchburg - Pannone and McKenzie were almost unhittable.  McKenzie looked a little wild at times, especially in the 5th inning when he walked a guy on 4 pitches, wild pitched him to second and wild pickoff attempt him to 3rd base before he struck out the side, ending with 8 Ks in the game.  Lynchburg pitchers held the Mudcats to one unearned run on six hits in 14 innings in the doubleheader.  Total pitching domination.   Nice to see out of the co-aces of this team.

Lake County - Aaron Civale got on the Shane Bieber bus and rode it to a dominating performance as Lake County pitchers gave the organization its third shutout of the evening. 

Akron was the only team in our minor leagues that gave up an earned run tonight...and we had some hitting, too. 

12 games in --- thoughts so far

By the end of this week 1/10 of the season will be over. 

So what I have I seen so far?

Brantley -  Right now Michael Brantley looks like a former very good player, a former all-star, who has had his skills diminished by a serious shoulder injury.   To me, this means one of two things:

(1) He is getting by on guile and experience and this is as good, essentially, as it's going to get with him.

(2) He is still knocking off the rust from a long layoff from baseball and will only get stronger as the season goes on.

Well, the Indians truly know which one it is, or highly suspect which one it is.  Let's hope it is (2) as if it is (1) I doubt that they ever acknowledge it, even to themselves, and so we will be left for a long time to come with an easy out in the middle of the order.

Encarnacion - There is no way in hell that this guy is done, right?  I mean 39 homers per year for a while.   Again, like Brantley, he looks like a former star player getting by on experience.   I think in his case he breaks out of it big time this week and what we have see so far is his idea of a slump. 

Diaz - All you have to do is look at the peripherals to see that he needs more minor league refinement.   I can't wait for a healthy..

Kipnis - Looking at him so far in the minors he looks good.   He looks like he is not having shoulder troubles at all.   Then again, neither does Brantley and when I saw McGwire toward the end of his career when his production fell of a cliff, neither did he...at least to my eye.  We don't need walking wounded, per se, but right now I would rather have him than Diaz.

Gomes - What can you say?  Offensively, he JUST PLAIN SUCKS.  Either he has just not gotten in the rhythm yet or he is done.   I would say he has until the end of May and if he hasn't figured it out by then sending to the minors....probably for good.

Starting Pitching - Kluber and Tomlin do not look sharp right now.  Bauer, Salazar and Carrasco have their innings/games where they look good.   It is too early to make any judgements but, gut feeling, I think they are OK physically and mentally.   I think they will all get stronger as the season gets along.  For those worried about Tomlin, I think he has gone through these things before.  

Bullpen - So far no red flags but the jury is still out.  Miller was not sharp last night in relief of Kluber and Shaw has his moments.   Goody looks better than Armstrong for the last spot but, frankly, I would rather have a veteran like Blanton than either of them. 

Bench - I still see this, counting the OF platoons, as a strength of this tea.   Still have to sort out the outfielders but I don't think I would change a thing about the construction of this bench. 

So, at 5-7 it doesn't look good so far   But, at this point, the record doesn't mean anything.  It is how we are playing.   If things work out and guys stay/get healthy, we will look like the team of last year, only better.

Just like we planned.

Early minor league statistical trends

Ok, I admit I have been very busy and haven't had a chance to see a game on MiLB TV yet.   Still, just looking at the statistical trends from our prospects (excluding minor league veterans) here is what I see so far.

Columbus -

Hitters - Zimmer is showing a good OPS and SB rate.  His K rate of 25% is still a little high but improving.   Erik Gonzalez struggled early but is starting to come around.   Nellie Rodriguez is still struggling.

Pitchers - You can't get any better than Clevinger has been.  Our bullpen depth looks very good but the starting pitching depth, which I rated as one of the best in baseball, is looking pretty shaky as Merritt has been mediocre and Plutko and Morimando have just been B-A-D.

Akron -

Hitters - Mejia has been great.   Chang has a great OPS, especially if he can stay as a middle infielder.  Papi looks good on paper with a high OBP but if you look at his ABs he looks like he is just slapping at the ball (no XBH so far).  I have see n a couple of his ABs and he just looks like he is trying to make solid contact and has given up all efforts to make HR contact.   Bradley, like Nellie Rodriguez at AAA, is struggling mightily.

Pitchers -  Some of our 2nd tier prospects (Lugo, Peoples) are looking solid.  Some of the other pitching prospects (Merryweather, Kaminsky) are not looking sharp early.

Lynchburg -

Hitters - Looking at the lineup there is not a single solid hitting prospect on this team.  A few guys are hitting well but none even qualify as 2nd tier prospects so their early statistical success has less meaning.   Now, they sustain that success for a whole season...now we are talking!.

Pitchers - Pannone has been Clevinger-like so far.   McKenzie is doing well for his age and Chiang has been his usual solid, unspectacular, 2nd/3rd tier prospect self. 

Lake County -

Hitters - Chu, Capel and Jose Medina have surprised.  Overall I thought this team would not hit well but they have. 

Pitchers - Bieber and Civale have been as advertised (too good for this league).   Aiken, Hillman and Garza have struggled early and Aiken's control and Hillman's overall bad results are truly troubling.  Miniard has been OK but his peripherals are not that good.

Minor League Season Begins Tonight...we hope

As there is rain in the forecast for every city that Indians' minor league affiliates play in tonight, this post may be premature.   There is at least a 50-50 chance that no Indians' minor league team will play tonight.

That being said, it is the official opening of the MiLB season and with that comes the excitement of prospects breaking out and our minor league teams having great seasons.

Who will be this year's Francisco Mejia and will Mejia, himself, continue to look like a star? 

Who will break through to the majors and what impact will they have on the Indians' season?

Although it doesn't mean everything, who the Indians tab as their opening night minor league starters does give a glimpse as to who they think could be the best pitching prospects on each team.   Here are our opening day starters:

Columbus: Mike Clevinger
Akron: Julian Merryweather
Lynchburg: still TBD
Lake County: Micah Miniard

Wow, everyone but Clevinger is a huge surprise to me and the fact that Lynchburg hasn't named a starter yet is really interesting.  Could it be the result of an injury to their opening night starter and now they are scrambling to see who they will plug in there (bullpen day?).  Could it be that they will start with a piggy-back situation and they just don't know which of the two guys will actually start the game?  Some other reason? 

Merryweather and Miniard are clearly highly regarded prospects but I would have thought that other guys (Civale or Bieber at LC, Kaminsky at Akron) might have been better choices.  The former two have some warts on their game and don't seem to be as polished at the latter three.

In any case, rain or potential red flags on these pitching staffs based on who is tabbed to start the openers can't blunt my enthusiasm for the start of the minor league season.

Go Clippers, Rubber Ducks, Hillcats and Captains! 

And the beat keeps going

The Indians win again making it the first time since 1998 that they swept a series to begin the season. 

They are hitting on all cylinders now.  Obviously baseball is a game of streaks so I am sure they will have bad stretches this year but right now their good stretch coincided with the Rangers bad stretch.

And it is a different guy each night on the offense.  And all the relievers have contributed to the success.  And the starting pitching, while not dominant, shows signs of becoming dominant.   

Plus, as icing on the cake the Cavaliers beat the Celtics to move back ahead of Boston for the first overall seed in the East in the playoffs.

This is, indeed a great time to be an Indians' fan.

All's right with the Cleveland sports world

As people in Cleveland move through their busy days today, all Cleveland sports fans, if they have the time and ability to do so, should take a moment and reflect back on the last few days.   The Cavs win two, the Indians win two in relatively dramatic fashion with all (except for Jason Kipnis) of the principal parts of the team making significant contributions. 

It doesn't get any better than this in the regular season.   Unless..

The Cavs beat Boston tonight and the Indians sweep the Rangers tonight.  

However, even if that doesn't happen, it is a great time to be a Cleveland sports fan.   Times like the last couple of years don't come along that often in Cleveland and I am enjoying this moment today for all current and, especially, the past Cleveland sports fans who supported their teams for their entire lifetimes and never had a moment like this to celebrate.

So I celebrate it for them.   Go Cavs!  Go Indians!  And thanks for the memories the last few years.

2017 Predictions - Part 2 - Breakout Seasons

For me, as an avid follower of the Indians minor league teams, one of the most anticipated things is to see which prospects will have over-the-top performances this year.   So many publications and 'experts' give us so much information on these guys that some guy coming out of nowhere is much less likely than when I was a kid growing up.   Still, there is room to dream about which guys in the Indians' system will have the biggest and most significant breakouts this year.   Here are my guesses on who those guys might be and why. 

Bradley Zimmer - I think he has a lot to prove and I perceive a little chip on his shoulder.   I just can't see anyone except for Michael Brantley on the Indians' roster standing in the way of Zimmer once he is ready.   Every other outfielder is a journeyman (or journeyman in the making in Tyler Naquin's case).  Not that these guys are bad, mind you.   It is just that they are expendable in the face of a quality talent like Zimmer.   I think Zimmer has learned his lessons and is focusing on filling the holes in his game.  When he is ready, as I think he will be this year, Zimmer will break down the door to the majors and have a Lindor-esque rookie season.

Nolan Jones - It is hard to say a guy will have a breakout season when he starts it in extended spring training but that will be my feeling for a couple of guys on this list.   Jones only has to show his hit tool to break out this year but I think he will show even more plate discipline and some power in addition to his defense as he starts to move up the ladder.   Hey, many people think we got a bargain (in terms of draft slot) with Jones.  I think this year that bargain will loom even larger as he starts to put performance with promise.

Dylan Baker - This is almost a comical prediction but the guy has shown he can be dominating.   If he is truly healthy this year he will be the breakout prospect in the Indians' system. 

Matt Esparza - A popular pick for breakout status, I just see him becoming the next Adam Plutko which, to me, is his upside.  Given where we drafted him, Plutko-like contributions would be a real plus.  I think Esparza shows he can do that, any maybe a little more, this season at Lynchburg and, eventually, Akron.

Ulysses Cantu -  All the I read about this guy tells me he is so much better than the .200 AZL hitter he was last year.  I think he breaks out this year, albeit with the AZL Indians or Mahoning Valley, or both.

Ka'ai Tom - If he is truly healthy he will be Greg Allen Part Deux and will likely shoot up the minor league system as his approach at the plate is refined and he is just a solid player who will overmatch the low minors forcing his way up to at least AA by the end of the year. 

Justin Garza - Here is a guy who is a polished college pitcher who missed time due to TJ surgery.   I think he fully recovers and is sensational in the low minors, maybe even surpassing Bieber and Civale on being the closest of the three to the major leagues.

Luke Wakamatsu - I see him breaking out this season but, like Cantu and Jones, maybe only at rookie ball levels.  He is just too solid a prospect to not make a big jump if he stays healthy this year.

Mike Papi - No one talks about this guy and I know why.   His swing looks so weak a lot of the time that his last name could be Mendoza (as in the line).   There is no way that this guy is this bad with as polished a player as he was coming out of college.   Hey, 20 years ago, before analytics and advancements in video and college competitive levels I would have say he could have fooled the scouts.   No way he did that.   Papi, if healthy this year, might even be able to impact the Indians' major league team given his potential and the fact that he came in with Zimmer meaning he SHOULD be on the same development path.   If he accelerates his movement up the minor leagues this year he may even catch up to Zimmer in the majors (but Papi would probably only, at best, get a September cameo).

Louis Head and Cameron Hill - Late round draft picks like these guys seldom 'break out'.  However, if things break, right these guys could pull a Joseph Colon and come out of nowhere to play a little ball in Cleveland this season.  They are 6th/7th inning guys in the majors, at best, but I think they will be solid in the minors and be available if the opportunity exists in the Cleveland bullpen. 

My hope is that all these guys and about a half-dozen other minor leaguers have breakout seasons this year.  If they do our farm system will truly become one of the deepest in the game, something a small market team like the Indians truly need.

Next up: early predictions about guys making their major league debuts this year and the 2017 draft and international signing period.

2017 Predictions - Part 1 - Overall Records and Post-Season

This is will another banner year for the Indians major league team.  Their minor league teams will not fare AS well but will still be successful.   Here are my predictions for 2017

Cleveland Indians - I am a little more optimistic than most, I think.   Every team has injuries and every team has dead spots in their season when nothing seems to go right.   That being said I think the Indians will stay healthy this season and any injuries will be replaced seamlessly through guys at AAA.  I also think the Indians may add a rent-a-bat either in July or August that will help their regular season success.  Experience is the best teacher and I think the Indians will go to the post-season again and have some success.

Prediction: 94-68 (1st in AL Central)
Postseason: Win the World Series (heart over head pick, to be sure).

Columbus Clippers - AAA success is generally a combination of quality pitching prospects, veteran AAAA hitters and having the major league team stay healthy so your key AAA players stay at AAA.  The Clippers are set up to do this.    This is likely, if all things go right, to be one of the best years in Clippers history.  

Prediction: 89-55 (1st in International League Central Division)
Post-season: Winner of the Governor's Cup, lose in AAA Championoship game

Akron Rubber Ducks - I love that nickname!  This level is crucial for a lot of guys.  Some guys get hung-up here and never get over the hump so they can establish themselves in AAA.  While I see a couple of guys on our AA roster who are true prospects, even those guys have their warts.   I also see a lot of guys having trouble getting established at AA.  I think this is a recipe for a mediocre record although, by the end of the season, the number of top prospects on this team, especially the position players, could be very impressive, even more impressive than it is now in terms of the # guys from this team who are top 50 prospects in all of baseball!   Just don't see this team putting up a lot of wins. 

Prediction: 74-70
Post-season: None

Lynchburg Hillcats - High class A teams have produced mega-prospects for the Indians in past couple of years.   Some are at AA and a few at AAA and a few have been traded.   Looking at the roster this year, outside of Triston McKenzie, I don't see a single other blue chip prospect on this team.  Still, I can see a few guys who may really up their prospect status by the end of the year and don't see ANY of these guys getting mid-season promotions so this team should stay intact most of the year.  I think that might translate from a very poor first half to a second half championship or playoff spot.

Prediction: 68-76 overall, 26-46 in the first half and 42-30 in the second half.
Post-season: Second half championship and playoff spot but lose in the first playoff round.

Lake County Captains - Superior pitching usually wins in baseball but it seems like in the Midwest League you need average pitching and superior hitting to win.   That being said, the Captains' starting pitching is so superior than any offense at all would be enough to win some games.   With Bieber and Civale on this team along with Aiken, Hillman and even the dark horse Justin Garza, this team could have the best rotation in the organization...outside of the parent Indians, of course.   Even then, the pitching talent of this rotation may be better, compared to the competition, than the parent Indians...and it might not even be close.   That being said I am pretty sure that Bieber and Civale will only last the first half in LC.   It might be enough for a first half championship if everything breaks well on the rest of the team.  However, when those two get the inevitable promotion to Lynchburg at mid-season, the Captains' ship is likely to sink rapidly.  

Prediction: 70-74 overall, 43-29 in the first half and 27-45 in the second half
Post-season: First half championship but an easy 2-and-out loss in the first round of the playoffs.

So this year, in W-L records and team strength our farm teams will generally be mediocre this year.   The hope, however, is that the oragnization's top 20 prospects like McKenzie, Mejia and others prosper as they are aggressively promoted through the system and enough other prospects (e.g., Mike Papi) start playing like they should and become true prospects and other guys (like Matt Esparza, Justin Garza, Cameron Hill and others) really burst onto the prospect scene with all of these guys turning themselves into top 15 prospects in the organization.  Basically, the cream rises to the top and so we don't worry about the rest of the guys starting to look more like organizational players or even our organizational minor league W-L percentage which may be our worst in 10 years if everything (including our MV and AZL teams sucking this year, remember we don't have a first rounder this year and so our draft budget will be small) breaks the way I think it will.

Opening Day Lineup and strategy

OK, it's almost here.  Opening Day.  

Let's look at the lineup and the strategy:

Carlos Santana - He is just solid.   Not spectacular but solid with lots of walks and HRs.   If he could ever hit .300 and not lose power or plate discipline, he would be an all-star every year.   If he ever had one year to turn up the jets it would be this year.  He is a free agent next season.   Look for a big year from him in his walk year.

Francisco Lindor - Rookie nerves?   Sophomore slump?  Nothing so far.   He just looks like a perennial all-star at this point and an offensive (and defensive) strength of the team.   The only question I have is not IF but WHAT he will do this year to remind us that he is still young and has lots of time to up his all-star level play to even higher heights.

Michael Brantley - If his body holds up he will certainly be a value to this lineup...and moreso than ever before for, as much as I loved Mike Napoli, hitting in front of Edwin Encarnacion is even better to protect Brantley and, frankly, with that shoulder, he can use the extra protection of getting to hit strikes.   If he is healthy I see a higher walk rate, lower strikeout rate and about the same everything else as in 2015.

Edwin Encarnacion - We all the other teams right for not signing him to a 3-year deal?  The logic is there.  He is 34 and will be 36 at the end of this deal.   Will he be worth the money in his age 36 season?  Maybe not.  But, if he stays healthy, I think he will be worth it this year.

Jose Ramirez - He is solid and I think he will benefit most from having Brantley back.   I don't think people will be scared enough of Brantley to be overly cautious or fastball-happy with Lindor or Santana.   However, I do think Ramirez will bat, from the #5 spot, A LOT in the first inning this year, meaning that he will have a lot of RBI chances not just early but often.   If his 2016 is any indication, that means he should be very productive this year.

Brandon Guyer/Lonnie Chisenhall/Abe Almonte - This could be the weakest spot in the lineup.  No, really.   If that is the case this is one stacked lineup.  These guys are all solid in their own way and, given that Chisenhall can hit the occasional lefty, all guys who can withstand the one-out guy if the rest of the other team's bullpen favors that hitter. 

Yan Gomes/Roberto Perez - This is the key to the Indians being a very good offensive team and a great offensive team.   That is, the bounceback to 2014 levels for Gomes and the continued maturation of Perez at and behind the plate.  If both of these were to happen this immediately becomes an elite lineup, and one of the best in Indians history, in my opinion.

Yandy Diaz - The kid can hit.   Batting him 8th in this lineup is perfect.  If he gets on it is not likely that the next hitter will hit into a double play meaning there should be runners on for Santana and his HR bat. 

Austin Jackson/Tyler Naquin - I love this platoon, especially if it is hitting 9th. It's like a second leadoff hitter meaning, in essence.  The only downside is Santana's penchant for hitting into double plays but maybe that is a good thing if Jackson/Naquin get on base and run a lot.  Plus Naquin has some protection hitting in front of Santana.   It is rare to see your #9 hitter seeing more fastballs because he hits in front of the leadoff hitter but, in this case, it may be true.   Given the predominance of right-handed pitchers so Naquin will start most of the time, this is a plus.  Frankly, I don't see Jackson being helped as much by this as Naquin will be.

If Kipnis comes back healthy than he could slide into the 2nd spot, Lindor slides to 3rd, Brantley to 5th and Ramirez to 6th, Guyer et al 7th, Gomes/Perez 8th and Naquin/Jackson 9th. 

After the starting pitcher, we should at least touch on the bullpen.   I think, at this early point, you have to split the 7th inning duties between Otero and Shaw.   I think Otero should get the first crack, especially if the first game sets up for us to use our bullpen in the 7th-9th.  I just don't want Shaw to blow some early games when we could start off strong for the season.

Ditto for Logan.   If he does come in in the first couple of series it would be as a LOOGY.   The bullpen is solid except for Logan and Shaw and so I wouldn't feature them early in the season.   I just wouldn't. 

There we have it.  Who knows how the season will go?  I predict we will lose at least 60 games so 60 times things won't go perfectly and that is a certainty, I think.  

The real predictions will be posted once the minor league rosters are set.