Hey, Tito, I know. Your bullpen sucks. It stinks. I know. Your ownership and GM did a screwed up job getting you enough bullpen depth. This is puzzling because they know you and know that you will only use players you trust and that you have a very short leash for guys you don't trust. Your management team should have known this and should have not given you any cause to do screwy things.
But in no way does that give you the right to burn out your starters.
Kluber 116 pitches. Bauer 122 pitches. In April? Really? Plus Bauer has been allow to throw over 110 pitches in each of his last three starts!
Do anyone remember how Kluber faded in the post-season? He was beat up physically and, in my opinion, his body just gave out on him. So we SHOULD be careful with him. Instead, we let him throw 116 pitches, a number topped only once in 2017.
We are lucky we got him back for this season! If Francona keeps this up Kluber won't even make it to October before he suffers a season-ending injury.
In my opinion, this is really two-faced of Francona. He overuses his starters trying to win games but he continues to start Tomlin and play Kipnis, both of whom have cost us multiple games this year.
In my opinion here is what is wrong:
1. Ownership did not give the Indians the money to build a good team. That is why we are, as I said since Shaw left, one shutdown right handed reliever short. Some were available in free agency but we chose not to go for any of them. We are also one right-handed hitting outfielder short of a good lineup. This has made the offense anemic which, in turn, has caused Francona to go too long with his starting pitching. We could have solved these problems over the winter but stuck to our budget.
So, Francona is trying to limit the number of pitchers he has to use because he has no confidence in his bullpen arms after Miller and Allen. But any of us who watched the postseason the last two years and how he used his bullpen outside of Miller, Allen and Shaw should know this.
But this is killing his starters and his bullpen. Miller is already down. Allen is not pitching that well. And the starters are being abused because Francona can't count on McAllister or Goody for any meaningful innings.
This is how Tito did HIMSELF in in Boston. He catered to the veterans. He didn't manage his roster well. Someone in ownership needs to sit down and have a talk with the manager. These are valuable assets that he is abusing. We can't afford this type of abuse to starters who we expect to carry us into October.
Monday, April 30, 2018
Thoughts for a Monday
1. While I may be overdramatizing this, the Cavs win yesterday was huge for the Cleveland sports scene. Why? Well, last fall the Indians fell on their faces in the first round of the playoff in a series they were heavily favored in. It was disappointing. Then we had the Browns.....and then the Browns draft. I am not saying the Cavs will go beyond this round (who knows?) but the fact that they made it TO the second round is a good thing and I think it helps shake off the failures last year by the other Cleveland sports teams and makes the Indians' failure last year seem more like an aberration and less like a trend. Maybe you disagree but this is my thought.
2. Baseball is such a hard game to predict. Adam Plutko looked like more than a AAAA player after last year. A guy who was good in the low minors but hit his ceiling with only a ML cup of coffee. Now it looks like he will be getting a Thursday start against Toronto. Shades of Ryan Merritt a couple of years ago against Toronto in the playoffs or, digging back to older history, Tom Mastny in the 2007 playoffs pitching an unlikely 10th inning goose egg against the heart of the Red Sox or While both those guys appear to have hit their ceiling in their career, we will see about Plutko. I hope he comes on strong. What a plus that would be for our starting pitching depth.
At the same time what is there to say about Tomlin and Kipnis? Fortunately we have the luxury of playing in a weak division so we can keep going with these guys who are stinking it up. I just hope they can return to good results soon as they appear, at least to me, to be costing us a lot of games so far.
3. Look at the Akron rotation. Except for Sean Brady who is posting a pedestrian borderline prospect season so far, the rest of the guys look great. Akron's pitching does, indeed, look special so far with as many as 8 or 9 of the guys having some chance to pitch in the majors and absolutely NO minor league journeyman players. These guys are all homegrown.
4. I predict that we will have the BEST crop of kids, both talent and statistically, coming out of our rookie ball (NY-Penn, AZL and DSL) that we have had in quite a few years. I can see maybe 10-12 of our top 30 prospects next year coming from these leagues. The statistics may, in fact, be eye-popping for some of these players, something that we don't see a lot of in our DSL affiliate, specifically.
5. To reiterate what I said at the beginning of the year we are short one right-handed hitting outfielder and one steady setup man (to replace Bryan Shaw). Imagine where we would be without Brantley coming back as strong as he has!
6. The rubber will hit the road soon for Yonder Alonso. What do I mean by that? Last year he added power. That power appears to be remaining this year but will the league make it so tough on him that he turns all Russell Branyan on us? Don't think it is that out of the question. As the weather warms up we will have the answer to that....probably by the middle of July at the latest but maybe sooner.
7. Finally, and this is an observation made on an incredibly small sample size, it is a little disheartening to watch the Indians, in games they fall behind early, just fold appear to fold up the tents after about the 6th inning. In the last two games of the Seattle series they were outscored 6-0 in the last two innings. I would like to see a little more fight, similar to the way the Mariners fought back on Friday night against Kluber/Allen. Frankly, I think this is part of Tito's the season is a marathon approach. He says to the media how important winning games is but if you pull the plug mentally in the middle of a game you fall way behind on, how will you EVER learn how to come back when you need to (say, in the playoffs). I truly believe this is an environment or a way of thinking that is creeping into the clubhouse and I would like to see it stopped. Again, just my opinion but teams who are successful have to learn to scrap back in games like this instead of being outscored by an opposition who knows they already have the game won and likely have taken their foot off the accelerator.
2. Baseball is such a hard game to predict. Adam Plutko looked like more than a AAAA player after last year. A guy who was good in the low minors but hit his ceiling with only a ML cup of coffee. Now it looks like he will be getting a Thursday start against Toronto. Shades of Ryan Merritt a couple of years ago against Toronto in the playoffs or, digging back to older history, Tom Mastny in the 2007 playoffs pitching an unlikely 10th inning goose egg against the heart of the Red Sox or While both those guys appear to have hit their ceiling in their career, we will see about Plutko. I hope he comes on strong. What a plus that would be for our starting pitching depth.
At the same time what is there to say about Tomlin and Kipnis? Fortunately we have the luxury of playing in a weak division so we can keep going with these guys who are stinking it up. I just hope they can return to good results soon as they appear, at least to me, to be costing us a lot of games so far.
3. Look at the Akron rotation. Except for Sean Brady who is posting a pedestrian borderline prospect season so far, the rest of the guys look great. Akron's pitching does, indeed, look special so far with as many as 8 or 9 of the guys having some chance to pitch in the majors and absolutely NO minor league journeyman players. These guys are all homegrown.
4. I predict that we will have the BEST crop of kids, both talent and statistically, coming out of our rookie ball (NY-Penn, AZL and DSL) that we have had in quite a few years. I can see maybe 10-12 of our top 30 prospects next year coming from these leagues. The statistics may, in fact, be eye-popping for some of these players, something that we don't see a lot of in our DSL affiliate, specifically.
5. To reiterate what I said at the beginning of the year we are short one right-handed hitting outfielder and one steady setup man (to replace Bryan Shaw). Imagine where we would be without Brantley coming back as strong as he has!
6. The rubber will hit the road soon for Yonder Alonso. What do I mean by that? Last year he added power. That power appears to be remaining this year but will the league make it so tough on him that he turns all Russell Branyan on us? Don't think it is that out of the question. As the weather warms up we will have the answer to that....probably by the middle of July at the latest but maybe sooner.
7. Finally, and this is an observation made on an incredibly small sample size, it is a little disheartening to watch the Indians, in games they fall behind early, just fold appear to fold up the tents after about the 6th inning. In the last two games of the Seattle series they were outscored 6-0 in the last two innings. I would like to see a little more fight, similar to the way the Mariners fought back on Friday night against Kluber/Allen. Frankly, I think this is part of Tito's the season is a marathon approach. He says to the media how important winning games is but if you pull the plug mentally in the middle of a game you fall way behind on, how will you EVER learn how to come back when you need to (say, in the playoffs). I truly believe this is an environment or a way of thinking that is creeping into the clubhouse and I would like to see it stopped. Again, just my opinion but teams who are successful have to learn to scrap back in games like this instead of being outscored by an opposition who knows they already have the game won and likely have taken their foot off the accelerator.
Thursday, April 26, 2018
The Indians are playing tonight but no one really cares!
Actually, I do care. However, like the lunatic I am, I am repeating a behavior that never has worked in the past and, yet, expecting a different result.
I watched the NFL draft.
This is a Cleveland Indians blog but I couldn't let this draft go without a comment or two.
First, this is the worst couple of draft picks I have seen and, actually, the worst use of a draft since the reinvented Browns first draft where they took all the wrong players at all the wrong times and turned Tim Couch into a target without any protection, shortening his career to a point where we never really knew how good he could have been. But that's another story.
Mayfield and Ward were by far the worst use of these two picks. Despite popular belief Dorsey did not inherit a desk in Cleveland with a scrap of paper saying "Mayfield above all else" or something like that. And the draftniks will not be saying how the Browns sprinkled magic dust on the draft to get these two guys. The owner will not be waltzing into the post-draft party (assuming, after this, one is even held) and say 'We had a great day'. Basically, this is not the movies, it is real life.
You know, years and years ago the Bengals did crap like this and no one understood it. In fact, the year before they went to and went to their first Super Bowl, they mysteriously finished with a bad (losing) record in the NFL when their talent was MUCH better than their record. They then went out with the high draft picks they earned from that mysteriously poor finish and used them to fill the last couple of holes they had in their lineup. Then they went to the Super Bowl one year after consecutive seasons of 4-12, 4-12 and the mysteriously bad 6-10.
All I can imagine is that Dorsey is on that same path. He is putting together pieces for a run in either 2020 or, more likely, 2021. In the meantime, the goal is to lose as many games as possible to keep getting the top draft pick along with adding pieces who will mature into good players by that time.
Dorsey couldn't get players who were TOO good or they might have accounted for a win or two. He had to get guys who, while good players, wouldn't impact the team next year or even, in a large sense, the year after that. So how did he do this?
He overdrafted Mayfield and Ward. The really logical picks were Barkley and Chubb. These guys could have both impacted 2018 and probably would have been worth 2-3 wins between them in how they would have impacted this team's dynamics. But they would have gotten us less optimal draft picks and a record that, while better, was still like the Indians of the 80s: just bad enough to be terrible but not bad enough to get a GREAT draft slot.
So if I am running this draft I picked Barkley and Chubb.
But if I am Dorsey I draft Mayfield and Ward and allow Hue Jackson to again be so inept that he will certainly get us the first overall pick next year...when we really start drafting guys that make sense.
I never understood the phrase 'He really screwed the pooch on that one'. However, Dorsey did, indeed, screw the pooch or rather, all the pooches in the Dawg Pound with these two picks because anyone who buys season or even game tickets the next two years is just funding 2020/2021 while throwing away their hard earned money for 2018/2019.
Look, you can't come into a situation as bad as the Browns have had and do crap that is risky and doesn't make sense. I would have rather failed with Barkley and Chubb then done the unorthodox and drafted Mayfield and Ward. At least taking Barkley/Chubb makes sense from a team building perspective.
To me, Dorsey is another in a long line of losers in the front office of the Browns since they reincarnated in Cleveland. Thank heavens for LeBron and Francona because if we had to hang the sports prowess of Cleveland teams on Dorsey, Jackson and the Browns, we would still be the mistake by the lake!
[DISCLAIMER: I am writing this off the top of my head and my recollection of history may be a little skewed.]
I watched the NFL draft.
This is a Cleveland Indians blog but I couldn't let this draft go without a comment or two.
First, this is the worst couple of draft picks I have seen and, actually, the worst use of a draft since the reinvented Browns first draft where they took all the wrong players at all the wrong times and turned Tim Couch into a target without any protection, shortening his career to a point where we never really knew how good he could have been. But that's another story.
Mayfield and Ward were by far the worst use of these two picks. Despite popular belief Dorsey did not inherit a desk in Cleveland with a scrap of paper saying "Mayfield above all else" or something like that. And the draftniks will not be saying how the Browns sprinkled magic dust on the draft to get these two guys. The owner will not be waltzing into the post-draft party (assuming, after this, one is even held) and say 'We had a great day'. Basically, this is not the movies, it is real life.
You know, years and years ago the Bengals did crap like this and no one understood it. In fact, the year before they went to and went to their first Super Bowl, they mysteriously finished with a bad (losing) record in the NFL when their talent was MUCH better than their record. They then went out with the high draft picks they earned from that mysteriously poor finish and used them to fill the last couple of holes they had in their lineup. Then they went to the Super Bowl one year after consecutive seasons of 4-12, 4-12 and the mysteriously bad 6-10.
All I can imagine is that Dorsey is on that same path. He is putting together pieces for a run in either 2020 or, more likely, 2021. In the meantime, the goal is to lose as many games as possible to keep getting the top draft pick along with adding pieces who will mature into good players by that time.
Dorsey couldn't get players who were TOO good or they might have accounted for a win or two. He had to get guys who, while good players, wouldn't impact the team next year or even, in a large sense, the year after that. So how did he do this?
He overdrafted Mayfield and Ward. The really logical picks were Barkley and Chubb. These guys could have both impacted 2018 and probably would have been worth 2-3 wins between them in how they would have impacted this team's dynamics. But they would have gotten us less optimal draft picks and a record that, while better, was still like the Indians of the 80s: just bad enough to be terrible but not bad enough to get a GREAT draft slot.
So if I am running this draft I picked Barkley and Chubb.
But if I am Dorsey I draft Mayfield and Ward and allow Hue Jackson to again be so inept that he will certainly get us the first overall pick next year...when we really start drafting guys that make sense.
I never understood the phrase 'He really screwed the pooch on that one'. However, Dorsey did, indeed, screw the pooch or rather, all the pooches in the Dawg Pound with these two picks because anyone who buys season or even game tickets the next two years is just funding 2020/2021 while throwing away their hard earned money for 2018/2019.
Look, you can't come into a situation as bad as the Browns have had and do crap that is risky and doesn't make sense. I would have rather failed with Barkley and Chubb then done the unorthodox and drafted Mayfield and Ward. At least taking Barkley/Chubb makes sense from a team building perspective.
To me, Dorsey is another in a long line of losers in the front office of the Browns since they reincarnated in Cleveland. Thank heavens for LeBron and Francona because if we had to hang the sports prowess of Cleveland teams on Dorsey, Jackson and the Browns, we would still be the mistake by the lake!
[DISCLAIMER: I am writing this off the top of my head and my recollection of history may be a little skewed.]
Thursday, April 19, 2018
Thoughts for the day
Epic battle last night. As the announcers said, it is hard to know what is more puzzling. That Francona asked the players to bunt knowing how bad they were at it or that, in fact, they were so bad at it. In any case, Kipnis is an average, at best, secondbaseman and his error was not a surprise, although we should never have gotten that far. Francona putting in Belisle in to save the game was also unexpected. Goody had looked strong the previous inning. Why not let him finish? It's not like he had never gone two innings before in his career. In summary, the Indians kept trying to give the game to the Twins and, in the end, it worked.
In the minors the teams keep playing and keep putting up results but not a lot of surprises so far. Here are a couple I have seen:
1. Bieber looks better than I thought he would. I could see him pitching in Cleveland this year.
2. Mitch Brown seems to have found a niche in the bullpen. I could also see him pitching in Cleveland this year, especially with my dark horse favorite to make his debut this year, Cam Hill, still on the shelf.
3. Adam Plutko. Let's face it. He needed to dominate this year at AAA or he was going to be labeled a AAAA pitcher. He has dominated his last two times out and that is, to me, unexpected. Maybe there is something there.
4. Conor Capel. I have said many times that low A stats can be really misleading. Guys who turn out to be organizational or AAAA players can look good, even at a young age, in low A. So far Capel has looked like he is using his year at Lake County last year as his coming out party and is building on it with a solid, all-around start at Lynchburg. He is hitting for average, power, showing good plate discipline and stealing bases. Offensively, it's all there and as near as I can tell he is doing it defensively, too. This guy could really be something if this trend continues.
5.Cal State Fullerton version of Justin Garza. This guy was once considered a top prospect when he was in HS and college but injuries his junior year clouded that picture making him a lower draft pick. Injuries also hindered him in his first two years with the Tribe. His start to 2018 is looking really good as he has dominated high A. Yeah, he is rather old for being a hot prospect in that league but his dominance is promising and if he DOES get promoted to AA and if he does well there, I could see him breaking the top 10 prospects next year. He has that much potential.
6. Will Benson. OK, there are lots of guys in the organization, some top prospects, performing better than Benson. So why the love for him? His K rate is down and, as a hitter, he is looking really comfortable and his tools are starting to show through. He is surprising me with these things and they portend for him having a great year as it appears his maturity as a player is on the steep part of the learning curve and he is moving fast through that curve.
Now, there are many other players who are having great starts to their year. Sam Hentges, Aaron Civale, Oscar Gonzalez, Jorma Rodriguez, Eli Morgan, Ben Krauth and others are doing well. However, in looking at their histories and taking into account it is early in the year and pitchers are generally ahead of hitters, especially in cold weather and hitters with poor plate discipline seldom succeed long term, I will wait for a while before I get excited about these guys.
In the minors the teams keep playing and keep putting up results but not a lot of surprises so far. Here are a couple I have seen:
1. Bieber looks better than I thought he would. I could see him pitching in Cleveland this year.
2. Mitch Brown seems to have found a niche in the bullpen. I could also see him pitching in Cleveland this year, especially with my dark horse favorite to make his debut this year, Cam Hill, still on the shelf.
3. Adam Plutko. Let's face it. He needed to dominate this year at AAA or he was going to be labeled a AAAA pitcher. He has dominated his last two times out and that is, to me, unexpected. Maybe there is something there.
4. Conor Capel. I have said many times that low A stats can be really misleading. Guys who turn out to be organizational or AAAA players can look good, even at a young age, in low A. So far Capel has looked like he is using his year at Lake County last year as his coming out party and is building on it with a solid, all-around start at Lynchburg. He is hitting for average, power, showing good plate discipline and stealing bases. Offensively, it's all there and as near as I can tell he is doing it defensively, too. This guy could really be something if this trend continues.
5.Cal State Fullerton version of Justin Garza. This guy was once considered a top prospect when he was in HS and college but injuries his junior year clouded that picture making him a lower draft pick. Injuries also hindered him in his first two years with the Tribe. His start to 2018 is looking really good as he has dominated high A. Yeah, he is rather old for being a hot prospect in that league but his dominance is promising and if he DOES get promoted to AA and if he does well there, I could see him breaking the top 10 prospects next year. He has that much potential.
6. Will Benson. OK, there are lots of guys in the organization, some top prospects, performing better than Benson. So why the love for him? His K rate is down and, as a hitter, he is looking really comfortable and his tools are starting to show through. He is surprising me with these things and they portend for him having a great year as it appears his maturity as a player is on the steep part of the learning curve and he is moving fast through that curve.
Now, there are many other players who are having great starts to their year. Sam Hentges, Aaron Civale, Oscar Gonzalez, Jorma Rodriguez, Eli Morgan, Ben Krauth and others are doing well. However, in looking at their histories and taking into account it is early in the year and pitchers are generally ahead of hitters, especially in cold weather and hitters with poor plate discipline seldom succeed long term, I will wait for a while before I get excited about these guys.
Thursday, April 12, 2018
Perspective
What else would you expect from a blog called Cleveland Indians Perspective?
So some random thoughts to put the season so far in, dare I say it, perspective.
1. Anyone who thinks the Twins are going away is, in my opinion, sadly mistaken. For diehard Tribe fans the race between the Indians and the Twins will cause them to have a large infestation of gray hair, especially if second place teams in the AL East (probable) and AL West (not as likely but still possible) start putting up great records.
2. The starting pitching, right now in this snapshot in time, is performing at levels that even I can't believe.
3. The bullpen is holding together but I still am not sold on these guys, outside of Miller and Allen. Still, so far they ALL look like we could have a solid, bullpen again. Unless McAllister comes around, however, the 7th inning guy in the post-season may end up being dicey.
4. The weather has been so bad in the minors that it is hard to tell what is going on so far. Still, the pitching has been outstanding in spots. Bieber and Civale have been as advertised and that is a great thing as they don't appear to have missed a beat since over the winter into this season. Plutko's start tonight was a good sign and I really think Zach Plesac is the sleeper prospect of the year. I like Will Benson, too. He has looked more relaxed and more mature this season and I expect him to put up big numbers as he continues up the steep part of his learning curve. Again, though, numbers at low A, for some reason, can be deceiving as far as hitting goes.
5. We still need another right handed powerhitting outfielder.
6. If Naquin and Zimmer could only catch the lightning in the bottle from their hot ML starts two years ago and last year, repectively, and keep it going through the entire season this year, we would be looking more like the WS team from the AL. But those are big ifs.
7. I was, and maybe still am, what the Yankees found last year with Lindor and Ramirez has been taken up by the rest of the league. Both have showed life recently but it was really scary to watch the postseason last year and see essentially the same results the first two weeks of the season this year. Let's hold our breaths and keep all of our fingers crossed that last postseason and the first two weeks of this season are purely coincidentally, non-related to reality, whatever that means.
8. I wonder if baseball players (or their accountants, actually) have as little fun doing their taxes as I do?
9. I didn't win the Megamillions jackpot....again...so I will be back here tomorrow.
So some random thoughts to put the season so far in, dare I say it, perspective.
1. Anyone who thinks the Twins are going away is, in my opinion, sadly mistaken. For diehard Tribe fans the race between the Indians and the Twins will cause them to have a large infestation of gray hair, especially if second place teams in the AL East (probable) and AL West (not as likely but still possible) start putting up great records.
2. The starting pitching, right now in this snapshot in time, is performing at levels that even I can't believe.
3. The bullpen is holding together but I still am not sold on these guys, outside of Miller and Allen. Still, so far they ALL look like we could have a solid, bullpen again. Unless McAllister comes around, however, the 7th inning guy in the post-season may end up being dicey.
4. The weather has been so bad in the minors that it is hard to tell what is going on so far. Still, the pitching has been outstanding in spots. Bieber and Civale have been as advertised and that is a great thing as they don't appear to have missed a beat since over the winter into this season. Plutko's start tonight was a good sign and I really think Zach Plesac is the sleeper prospect of the year. I like Will Benson, too. He has looked more relaxed and more mature this season and I expect him to put up big numbers as he continues up the steep part of his learning curve. Again, though, numbers at low A, for some reason, can be deceiving as far as hitting goes.
5. We still need another right handed powerhitting outfielder.
6. If Naquin and Zimmer could only catch the lightning in the bottle from their hot ML starts two years ago and last year, repectively, and keep it going through the entire season this year, we would be looking more like the WS team from the AL. But those are big ifs.
7. I was, and maybe still am, what the Yankees found last year with Lindor and Ramirez has been taken up by the rest of the league. Both have showed life recently but it was really scary to watch the postseason last year and see essentially the same results the first two weeks of the season this year. Let's hold our breaths and keep all of our fingers crossed that last postseason and the first two weeks of this season are purely coincidentally, non-related to reality, whatever that means.
8. I wonder if baseball players (or their accountants, actually) have as little fun doing their taxes as I do?
9. I didn't win the Megamillions jackpot....again...so I will be back here tomorrow.
Wednesday, April 4, 2018
Thoughts for the first week of play
First, I don't think anyone is honestly worried about the Indians not making the playoffs at this point.
I will say, however, that feces does happen to teams who are supposed to be good. If you don't believe that look at the San Francisco Giants last year. 64 wins? Really?
So a total collapse is not out of the question.
However, aside from that, it's too early to be anxious.
That being said, the glaring weakness of lack of right-handed productivity in the outfield is stark. Heck, the lack of ANY productivity in the outfield is stark.
We all knew the outfield coming into this season was this team's biggest Achilles heel. But it is starting to look like we have a situation where every outfielder may have a worse case scenario offensive year.
Zimmer looks bad right now, but not unpredictably bad based on his track record and how he was rushed to the majors. It is OK if one player on your team is defense first, especially if it is your centerfielder or SS. So, we'll give the Indians this one. But...
Guyer is looking bad. Maybe it is his wrist still being not quite right. However, right now, he is the worst I can imagine him being.
Chisenhall - You had to hope that this guy picked up where he left off before he was hurt last year. However, it is starting to look like last year was his flash-in-the-pan year. I hope I am wrong but so far he has acted more like a #9 hitter and we have one of those (Zimmer)
Davis - He is what he was two years ago. Unfortunately this guy cannot afford to have Davis in the lineup with Zimmer and, if need be, Guyer. Those are just 3 offensive holes and we haven't even started talking about the catchers yet. I never hoped for more out of Davis than what he gave us two years ago and that would be OK if...
...Naquin looked better. Unfortunately he still looks more like the 2016 playoff Naquin than the 2016 early season Naquin.
Brantley - So, the 5 outfielders above are all performing subpar. This means that Brantley has to be the 2016 first half Brantley and not the Brantley immediately before and after that. You say he was injured, do you? Well, that is PART of what I am talking about. If you don't produce because you are injured it is just as bad as not producing because you are overmatched. In the end, without Brantley being the good version of himself, he only makes the situation worse.
So, by not trading for or signing a good RH hitting outfielder, we put our team in a hole. I understand the small market realities but I think we are probably 5-1 with one good hitting OFer at this point.
Now let's talk Jose Ramirez. We were able to overcome the OF issues last year because of Lindor and Ramirez giving us performance from middle infielders that you would not expect. But now Ramirez has strung a bad, bad postseason along with an extremely bad first week of the regular season. It's probably nothing but what if the league has figured him out and he doesn't have a gear to react (similar to where Naquin is now). If I am unduly scared then please forgive me. But after watching Carolos Baerga's performance nosedive suddenly in the 90s, forgive me if I am a little skittish on this one. Mark my words. When a team nosedives it has to have significant injuries and some unexpected terrible performances along with no one stepping up in an unexpected way to at least fill the gap. That is what we are seeing with the 2018 Cleveland Indians so far.
Plus we still have to contend with the idea that Alonso is may really be a platoon player. I can see giving him a pass and saying that last year's power was not a fluke. However, saying that last year's power was not a fluke and that this guy would suddenly hit left handed pitching is way too much to hope for. And what if the power is not there and he doesn't hit left handed pitching? Well, Carlos Santana was not great but he was good enough not to create a hole in the lineup. If Alonso doesn't hit for power and hit lefties at least a little bit, how can he help offset the offensive hole that is our outfield.
Yes, we are a small market team and we have to pick and choose how we spend the few dollars we have to spend. But for that type of team to be successful they need to have a few pleasant surprises. So far, I don't see those which is why Kluber has gone 15 innings and given up 4 ERs (2 total mistakes over two starts) and in the AL, is 0-1 with a no decision when he should EASILY be 2-0.
No need to panic. Still, early results show that the Indians are wallowing in the bed that they made. Let's hope they get out of bed and put on their hitting pants, even if it is one leg at a time!
I will say, however, that feces does happen to teams who are supposed to be good. If you don't believe that look at the San Francisco Giants last year. 64 wins? Really?
So a total collapse is not out of the question.
However, aside from that, it's too early to be anxious.
That being said, the glaring weakness of lack of right-handed productivity in the outfield is stark. Heck, the lack of ANY productivity in the outfield is stark.
We all knew the outfield coming into this season was this team's biggest Achilles heel. But it is starting to look like we have a situation where every outfielder may have a worse case scenario offensive year.
Zimmer looks bad right now, but not unpredictably bad based on his track record and how he was rushed to the majors. It is OK if one player on your team is defense first, especially if it is your centerfielder or SS. So, we'll give the Indians this one. But...
Guyer is looking bad. Maybe it is his wrist still being not quite right. However, right now, he is the worst I can imagine him being.
Chisenhall - You had to hope that this guy picked up where he left off before he was hurt last year. However, it is starting to look like last year was his flash-in-the-pan year. I hope I am wrong but so far he has acted more like a #9 hitter and we have one of those (Zimmer)
Davis - He is what he was two years ago. Unfortunately this guy cannot afford to have Davis in the lineup with Zimmer and, if need be, Guyer. Those are just 3 offensive holes and we haven't even started talking about the catchers yet. I never hoped for more out of Davis than what he gave us two years ago and that would be OK if...
...Naquin looked better. Unfortunately he still looks more like the 2016 playoff Naquin than the 2016 early season Naquin.
Brantley - So, the 5 outfielders above are all performing subpar. This means that Brantley has to be the 2016 first half Brantley and not the Brantley immediately before and after that. You say he was injured, do you? Well, that is PART of what I am talking about. If you don't produce because you are injured it is just as bad as not producing because you are overmatched. In the end, without Brantley being the good version of himself, he only makes the situation worse.
So, by not trading for or signing a good RH hitting outfielder, we put our team in a hole. I understand the small market realities but I think we are probably 5-1 with one good hitting OFer at this point.
Now let's talk Jose Ramirez. We were able to overcome the OF issues last year because of Lindor and Ramirez giving us performance from middle infielders that you would not expect. But now Ramirez has strung a bad, bad postseason along with an extremely bad first week of the regular season. It's probably nothing but what if the league has figured him out and he doesn't have a gear to react (similar to where Naquin is now). If I am unduly scared then please forgive me. But after watching Carolos Baerga's performance nosedive suddenly in the 90s, forgive me if I am a little skittish on this one. Mark my words. When a team nosedives it has to have significant injuries and some unexpected terrible performances along with no one stepping up in an unexpected way to at least fill the gap. That is what we are seeing with the 2018 Cleveland Indians so far.
Plus we still have to contend with the idea that Alonso is may really be a platoon player. I can see giving him a pass and saying that last year's power was not a fluke. However, saying that last year's power was not a fluke and that this guy would suddenly hit left handed pitching is way too much to hope for. And what if the power is not there and he doesn't hit left handed pitching? Well, Carlos Santana was not great but he was good enough not to create a hole in the lineup. If Alonso doesn't hit for power and hit lefties at least a little bit, how can he help offset the offensive hole that is our outfield.
Yes, we are a small market team and we have to pick and choose how we spend the few dollars we have to spend. But for that type of team to be successful they need to have a few pleasant surprises. So far, I don't see those which is why Kluber has gone 15 innings and given up 4 ERs (2 total mistakes over two starts) and in the AL, is 0-1 with a no decision when he should EASILY be 2-0.
No need to panic. Still, early results show that the Indians are wallowing in the bed that they made. Let's hope they get out of bed and put on their hitting pants, even if it is one leg at a time!
Monday, April 2, 2018
Minor league rosters and the minor league disabled list and extended spring training roster
OK, the minor league season is about to start this Thursday and the composition of the rosters is leaking out. Also, there is the minor league disabled list and the guys not making a full-season roster. Let's take a look at all of it.
Guys not on full-season rosters
It is no surprise that 2017 HS draft picks like Quentin Holmes, Tyler Freeman, Jonathon Rodriguez, Michael Cooper, Matt Turner, Chandler Ferguson and Dante Mendoza did not make a full-season roster. They are all so young and so early in their development curve that extended spring training is just where they needed to be. Some of them, along with some of the Latin players who played in the AZL last year will no doubt play at Mahoning Valley this season but guys like Rodriguez, Cooper and the three pitches (Turner, Ferguson and Mendoza) will likely repeat in the AZL as none of them got many innings last year.
As far as other players who played in the organization last year who did not make a full-season roster, the most notable is Brady Aiken. I think this is Brady's make or break year in this organization. It is really prudent to make sure he is ready for this, his last, audition with the Indians. Sounds harsh? Maybe but I really feel he is a bust if he does not make progress this season. They may keep him next year just to make sure but his upside goes out the window unless he dominates this year. So it is best to make sure that he is ready physically, mentally and technically for his season before he is thrown into the deep end, so to speak. The other significant players from rookie or short season ball who I did not see on a full-season roster were Henry Pujols, Dakody Clemmer, Skyler Arias, Mitch Reeves and Pedro Alfonseca. I would expect to see all of these guys start the season at Mahoning Valley this year with the possible exception of Reeves, who may be the first outfielder called up in case of injury at Lake County or Lynchburg.
Guys on the minor league disabled list
Here is where life gets interesting. Most are aware by now that dark horse prospect Julian Merryweather will miss the entire season due to TJ surgery. That is bad enough. However, Triston McKenzie being on the DL to start the season is a real blow. Let's hope it is truly a precautionary move and there is nothing wrong that will derail this superstar-potential guy from his trajectory.
Besides McKenzie, including the major league DL, here are the significant prospects who are on the DL:
Ryan Merritt, Gio Urshela, Eric Stamets, Cam Hill, Josh Martin, Rob Kaminsky and Matt Esparza.
Other, lesser prospects on the DL include Connor Marabell, Jonathon Laureano, Ryan Colgate, Erick Algarin, Andrew Lantrip, Cesar Ventura, Josh Nashed and Jack Murphy.
Of these guys obviously McKenzie is the most concerning. However, the depth that is being lost or that may be lost from the other significant prospects on the DL is considerable. When it looks like our rotation at Columbus is likely to be some combination of Shawn Morimando, Adam Plutko, Adam Wilk, Stephen Fife, Robert Zarate and Alexi Ogando, you can see that, except for Danny Salazar, anyone we would need to call up from the minors as a starter would likely be among the bottom 5% of starting pitchers in the majors at the time they would be called up. That is not a good thing. We need to get Salazar healthy and keep Ryan Merritt on the roster or our depth at starting pitcher is just downright terrible, especially when you consider that dark horse candidates like Merryweather, Esparza, Kaminsky and Merritt are on the DL.
Full-season rosters and projections
Guys not on full-season rosters
It is no surprise that 2017 HS draft picks like Quentin Holmes, Tyler Freeman, Jonathon Rodriguez, Michael Cooper, Matt Turner, Chandler Ferguson and Dante Mendoza did not make a full-season roster. They are all so young and so early in their development curve that extended spring training is just where they needed to be. Some of them, along with some of the Latin players who played in the AZL last year will no doubt play at Mahoning Valley this season but guys like Rodriguez, Cooper and the three pitches (Turner, Ferguson and Mendoza) will likely repeat in the AZL as none of them got many innings last year.
As far as other players who played in the organization last year who did not make a full-season roster, the most notable is Brady Aiken. I think this is Brady's make or break year in this organization. It is really prudent to make sure he is ready for this, his last, audition with the Indians. Sounds harsh? Maybe but I really feel he is a bust if he does not make progress this season. They may keep him next year just to make sure but his upside goes out the window unless he dominates this year. So it is best to make sure that he is ready physically, mentally and technically for his season before he is thrown into the deep end, so to speak. The other significant players from rookie or short season ball who I did not see on a full-season roster were Henry Pujols, Dakody Clemmer, Skyler Arias, Mitch Reeves and Pedro Alfonseca. I would expect to see all of these guys start the season at Mahoning Valley this year with the possible exception of Reeves, who may be the first outfielder called up in case of injury at Lake County or Lynchburg.
Guys on the minor league disabled list
Here is where life gets interesting. Most are aware by now that dark horse prospect Julian Merryweather will miss the entire season due to TJ surgery. That is bad enough. However, Triston McKenzie being on the DL to start the season is a real blow. Let's hope it is truly a precautionary move and there is nothing wrong that will derail this superstar-potential guy from his trajectory.
Besides McKenzie, including the major league DL, here are the significant prospects who are on the DL:
Ryan Merritt, Gio Urshela, Eric Stamets, Cam Hill, Josh Martin, Rob Kaminsky and Matt Esparza.
Other, lesser prospects on the DL include Connor Marabell, Jonathon Laureano, Ryan Colgate, Erick Algarin, Andrew Lantrip, Cesar Ventura, Josh Nashed and Jack Murphy.
Of these guys obviously McKenzie is the most concerning. However, the depth that is being lost or that may be lost from the other significant prospects on the DL is considerable. When it looks like our rotation at Columbus is likely to be some combination of Shawn Morimando, Adam Plutko, Adam Wilk, Stephen Fife, Robert Zarate and Alexi Ogando, you can see that, except for Danny Salazar, anyone we would need to call up from the minors as a starter would likely be among the bottom 5% of starting pitchers in the majors at the time they would be called up. That is not a good thing. We need to get Salazar healthy and keep Ryan Merritt on the roster or our depth at starting pitcher is just downright terrible, especially when you consider that dark horse candidates like Merryweather, Esparza, Kaminsky and Merritt are on the DL.
Full-season rosters and projections
Obviously minor league projections are controlled as much by inevitable roster moves as they are by injuries or opening day rosters. That being said, here are my predictions for this year:
Columbus 62-82 - Really, only Mejia and Diaz make this team worth watching. It will be interesting to keep an eye on the power numbers of Haase and Stamets, whether Nellie Rodriguez can reach his Jesus Aguilar potential and how Bobby Bradley does when (if) he gets called up. Yes, Greg Allen is interesting but I am pretty sure what we have with him so, unless he suddenly becomes a 20 HR guy and keeps his other stats the same, I am not took excited about him. This team will lack for pitching and will be thin offensively, making it a long season for Clipper faithful unless Mike Napoli stays there a good length of time which would definitely help this team overachieve. Don't think he will be there very long, however, so I see his impact on the overall record being negligible.
Akron - 86-58 - I am going way out on a limb with this one. However, looking at the roster it is stacked with pitching, returning quality hitting and fresh new prospects. If the back end of the rotation can hold up and if the bullpen is even a tick above average, this could be a special season for the Rubber Ducks.
Lynchburg - 76-68 - Sometimes in more league ball stability on your roster produces good results, even on a roster devoid of star players. I think this might be the case with this team. I don't see one star prospect on this entire roster but maybe that means most of these guys will stay here the entire season giving this team stability in a league that is constantly in flux.
Lake Count - 72-72 - I see talent on this roster but little veteran leadership. I could see as many as 8 of the guys on this roster someday playing in the majors but there is just no experienced leaders playing on this team so they will likely struggle with consistency of performance. Where is Crash Davis when we need him?
There it is. My 2018 minor league predictions. Take with a grain of salt and call me in September.
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