Monday, April 2, 2018

Minor league rosters and the minor league disabled list and extended spring training roster

OK, the minor league season is about to start this Thursday and the composition of the rosters is leaking out.  Also, there is the minor league disabled list and the guys not making a full-season roster.  Let's take a look at all of it.

Guys not on full-season rosters

It is no surprise that 2017 HS draft picks like Quentin Holmes, Tyler Freeman, Jonathon Rodriguez, Michael Cooper, Matt Turner, Chandler Ferguson and Dante Mendoza did not make a full-season roster.   They are all so young and so early in their development curve that extended spring training is just where they needed to be.  Some of them, along with some of the Latin players who played in the AZL last year will no doubt play at Mahoning Valley this season but guys like Rodriguez, Cooper and the three pitches (Turner, Ferguson and Mendoza) will likely repeat in the AZL as none of them got many innings last year.

As far as other players who played in the organization last year who did not make a full-season roster, the most notable is Brady Aiken.  I think this is Brady's make or break year in this organization.  It is really prudent to make sure he is ready for this, his last, audition with the Indians.   Sounds harsh?  Maybe but I really feel he is a bust if he does not make progress this season.  They may keep him next year just to make sure but his upside goes out the window unless he dominates this year.  So it is best to make sure that he is ready physically, mentally and technically for his season before he is thrown into the deep end, so to speak.  The other significant players from rookie or short season ball who I did not see on a full-season roster were Henry Pujols, Dakody Clemmer, Skyler Arias, Mitch Reeves and Pedro Alfonseca.  I would expect to see all of these guys start the season at Mahoning Valley this year with the possible exception of Reeves, who may be the first outfielder called up in case of injury at Lake County or Lynchburg.

Guys on the minor league disabled list

Here is where life gets interesting.  Most are aware by now that dark horse prospect Julian Merryweather will miss the entire season due to TJ surgery.  That is bad enough.  However, Triston McKenzie being on the DL to start the season is a real blow.  Let's hope it is truly a precautionary move and there is nothing wrong that will derail this superstar-potential guy from his trajectory.

Besides McKenzie, including the major league DL, here are the significant prospects who are on the DL:

Ryan Merritt, Gio Urshela, Eric Stamets, Cam Hill, Josh Martin, Rob Kaminsky and Matt Esparza.

Other, lesser prospects on the DL include Connor Marabell, Jonathon Laureano, Ryan Colgate, Erick Algarin, Andrew Lantrip, Cesar Ventura, Josh Nashed and Jack Murphy.

Of these guys obviously McKenzie is the most concerning.  However, the depth that is being lost or that may be lost from the other significant prospects on the DL is considerable.   When it looks like our rotation at Columbus is likely to be some combination of Shawn Morimando, Adam Plutko, Adam Wilk, Stephen Fife, Robert Zarate and Alexi Ogando, you can see that, except for Danny Salazar, anyone we would need to call up from the minors as a starter would likely be among the bottom 5% of starting pitchers in the majors at the time they would be called up.   That is not a good thing.  We need to get Salazar healthy and keep Ryan Merritt on the roster or our depth at starting pitcher is just downright terrible, especially when you consider that dark horse candidates like Merryweather, Esparza, Kaminsky and Merritt are on the DL.

Full-season rosters and projections

Obviously minor league projections are controlled as much by inevitable roster moves as they are by injuries or opening day rosters.   That being said, here are my predictions for this year:

Columbus 62-82 - Really, only Mejia and Diaz make this team worth watching.   It will be interesting to keep an eye on the power numbers of Haase and Stamets, whether Nellie Rodriguez can reach his Jesus Aguilar potential and how Bobby Bradley does when (if) he gets called up.  Yes, Greg Allen is interesting but I am pretty sure what we have with him so, unless he suddenly becomes a 20 HR guy and keeps his other stats the same, I am not took excited about him.  This team will lack for pitching and will be thin offensively, making it a long season for Clipper faithful unless Mike Napoli stays there a good length of time which would definitely help this team overachieve.   Don't think he will be there very long, however, so I see his impact on the overall record being negligible.

Akron - 86-58 - I am going way out on a limb with this one.  However, looking at the roster it is stacked with pitching, returning quality hitting and fresh new prospects.   If the back end of the rotation can hold up and if the bullpen is even a tick above average, this could be a special season for the Rubber Ducks.

Lynchburg - 76-68 - Sometimes in more league ball stability on your roster produces good results, even on a roster devoid of star players.  I think this might be the case with this team.  I don't see one star prospect on this entire roster but maybe that means most of these guys will stay here the entire season giving this team stability in a league that is constantly in flux.

Lake Count - 72-72 - I see talent on this roster but little veteran leadership.   I could see as many as 8 of the guys on this roster someday playing in the majors but there is just no experienced leaders playing on this team so they will likely struggle with consistency of performance.   Where is Crash Davis when we need him?

There it is.   My 2018 minor league predictions.   Take with a grain of salt and call me in September.  

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