Monday, May 28, 2018

A brief detour into basketball

Cavs fans and Cleveland Cavaliers,

Congratulations!   Enjoy this moment.   I love what LeBron James brings to basketball.  He has rekindled my interest in the NBA.  I use him all the time as a role model to my kids as he expects excellence of himself and those around him but doesn't throw his teammates under the bus.  He carries his team on his back when needed and doesn't whine about having to do that.  He embraces the moment.

I hope his stay in Cleveland ends with another championship.  I do think he will leave after this year and, when he does, unless he stays in the Eastern Conference that division should belong to the Boston Celtics for years to come.  And I truly think LeBron leaving will be good for the Cavaliers if they embrace it, understand what it means, and understand how to move on productively from the end of the LeBron era part deux.

As far as the Cavaliers, they will then have two choices: become a perennial playoff team (7 or 8 seed) with little to no chance of getting to the Finals for the next few years or do a complete rebuild, trading or selling every player who has significant value for future stars and draft picks.  Short term pain for long term gain.  Hey, it's not like Cavs fans are used to winning in the regular season anyway.  I am always about rebuilding instead of trying to reload.  The ladder tends to be expensive and tends not to work well.

Now back to baseball.   Bring on the tandem starters.  BTW, I think there are still free agent starting pitchers out there who we should be signing to minor league deals to incorporate them into the tandem starter plan.  

Sunday, May 27, 2018

Solution to the bullpen mess

OK, 6 runs in the 8th today.   Leaving Bauer in for 127 pitches.

Ridiculous.

We need a drastic change!

And here it is:

TANDEM STARTERS!!!

So here is what we do:

Designate for assignment: Evan Marshall, Ben Taylor, Neil Ramirez

Bench Kipnis.   Start Erik Gonzalez at 2B.

Bring up: Shane Bieber, Shao-Ching Chiang, Yandy Diaz

Now, admittedly this tandem starter idea would be easier if Civale, Merryweather and even McKenzie were not injured but, what the heck.  Here goes (innings in parentheses):

Bullpen: Cody Allen, Dan Otero, Tyler Olsen, Zach McAllister

Carrasco (6)  Chiang (3)
Plutko (5)  Bieber (4)
Kluber plus bullpen
Bauer (6) Tomlin (3)
Clevinger plus bullpen

If one of your starters gets rocked then you just extend the other starter more innings (typical tandem protocol). If Kluber or Clevinger gets rocked you pitch McAllister longer innings and fill in with Otero and Olsen, if necessary.  You go with this no matter what.   When/if Miller comes back you re-adjust, maybe sending out Olsen or Otero. Yeah, I know, putting Tomlin in a 1-0 game for 3 innings seems scary and not even as scary as putting Chiang in that situation but right now we are throwing guys out there in close games who have no business being in the majors, yet in close games with what should be an elite team.

Plus Diaz gets his shot off the bench. (Mejia would have been the first choice but he sucks so bad he misses this opportunity).  If Urshela was here I would have brought him up and put Kipnis on the DL.   But, well, we lost Urshela didn't we?

Also, if one of your 4 bullpen guys gets hurt you bring up, in order: Mitch Brown, Cole Sulser, Matt Belisle.  Then you start bringing up internal organizational relievers as necessary but no more recycled vets.

Yeah, dumping Neil Ramirez could come back and bite us in the butt if he gets it together with another team but the guy has gotten his chance and has sucked here.    There is a reason he had to settle for a late minor league deal with the Indians.

So, there it is.  No (or very little) whining.  No pointing fingers.   Just a solution.   I mean, Tito innovated his bullpen in 2016 with Miller time.  We have an excess of starting pitching in the minors.  Why not give this a try?   Heck, if it works out and our injured guys come back strong this year, we even do it more later in the year.  Otero and Olsen may even be expendable in this situation if the right minor league starters are available and dealing in the minors.

Saturday, May 26, 2018

This is a total mess

Not trying to play Captain Obvious here.  However, I told you so.    When your bullpen is made up of one year wonders (Goody, Olsen), a guy you trust so little you don't even have  him in our bullpen rotation despite really good numbers (McAllister) and two guys who have been overworked the last couple of years (Allen, Miller) and you don't add anyone of significance in the off-season your bullpen is already teetering on the edge of disaster.

The front office screwed this up.  Big time.   You don't put bargain tires on a Mercedes and that is what they have done.  

Sure, we may win the division because everyone else sucks.  But all it will take is one hot streak and then the remainder of the season playing mediocre ball and the Twins can probably even beat the Indians in their current state.

Even if we win the division we will surely pay dearly in July and August for bullpen help.

You people like Shane Bieber...well say bye-bye to Mr. Bieber

You guys thinking Yandy Diaz is part of our future?  Well, he is about to be part of the past.

You like the potential of Zach Plesac, Aaaron Civale, Connor Capel and others?   Be ready for that potential to be wearing another team's uniform by this August.

In fact, the only prospects who are likely safe are our best prospects because they are all either injured or currently stinking it up meaning there should be no way we trade them as we would be both throwing those guys away for rentals AND we would be selling low because of how their value has diminished.

So, if you are worried about Mejia, McKenzie and Bradley don't be.  They aren't going any place because they have lost value.

But the fact remains:  The Indians' FO has screwed this up beyond belief, leaving it to Tito to screw it up even more by overpitching his starters and, in typical Tito fashion, over-respecting his veterans, especially Tomlin and Kipnis, who are costing us countless games over and above what the bullpen has cost us.

What was a great combination of FO, manager and players is now becoming the worst combination possible as each is playing to their weaknesses instead of their strengths.

In the end the goal here should NOT be to win this year.   It should be to admit your mistake, lick your wounds and settle for what this season brings us WITHOUT CHANGE AND WITHOUT TRYING TOO HARD TO WIN.   That's right.   Don't compound the front office and management errors by doing stupid things on the field.

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

It's coming, folks. Brace for it.

Every July there are lots of rumors about teams trading for pieces they need.

Well, the Indians need pieces.   Certainly they need bullpen help, maybe even more by then than they do right now.

Maybe they even need that RH bat in the OF, depending on how the defensively-challenged Melky Cabrera hits.  

But here is the rub: People will want the Indians' top prospects.

Remember Justus Sheffield, Clint Frazier and others for Andrew Miller?   That was two of our top 3 prospects.

People say that prospects are just that.  Not a sure thing.

But we are in Cleveland and prospects are the ONLY thing we can afford.

And, yes, some prospects don't work out.  Still, on this team, Jose Ramirez was a prospect, Francisco Lindor was a prospect.  Cody Allen was a prospect, Roberto Perez was a prospect, Lonnie Chisenhall was a prospect, Jason Kipnis was a prospect and the list goes on and on.

The point is that this team is built on a foundation of our prospects.

But wait, the story gets better.  This team is also built on propsects we got from other teams in deadline deals.  Mike Clevinger, Michael Brantley, Carlos Carrasco all came over in deadline deals.

Cory Kluber and Trevor Bauer were prospects when they were traded to the Indians in winter deals.

The point here is that prospects are NOT just prospects.   To Cleveland they are a way to build a team whose window is wide open in terms of getting to the playoffs.

And this July we will no doubt be looking to get more veterans by trading prospects.

So which prospects are you willing to give up for a 2-month rental or a 1 year and 2 month rental?

Francisco Mejia?  Triston McKenzie?  Shane Bieber?  Bobby Bradley?   Or maybe you are willing to give up top prospects like Nolan Jones or Will Benson because they are so far away from Cleveland?
The point here is that there is a good chance that we will trade for a guy we could have had for cash over the winter.  Yes, we might have overpaid in dollars to get a particular guy in free agency.   However, we will now have to overpay in prospects to get that same guy.

For someone who has been following the Indians closely for almost 60 years it pains me to know that this is going to happen BECAUSE the Indians wouldn't spend more money over the winter on some of the free agent relievers.

In Cleveland, trading prospects for short-term fixes just should NOT be part of the equation.

But that is what we will likely see this July.   I am already getting sick to my stomach just thinking about that likelihood.  

Friday, May 11, 2018

When do the Cavaliers open their next series?

The difference tonight was the bullpens.  Hah hah hah hah hah.  You know when some people laugh hysterically without being able to stop because of stress or pain or whatever?  That's me right now.

It is hard to believe that our management bought a Mercedes Benz and put a $10 battery from the Dollar Store in the thing.  Just an analogy, folks, so don't run for your lawyers.  But you get the point.

The FO has screwed us with this bullpen that can't hold a 9-5 lead against one of the worst teams in baseball and an offense that, while they got us the lead, got us nothing afterward when we needed it most.

I called it over the winter and begged them to fix that problem before the season started.   They didn't.
I know, every team has holes.   However, the Indians have a Grand Canyon-sized hole.  

The bullpen is killing this team and now all that is left is to keep throwing stuff against the wall and hope some of it sticks and, as that is not likely to work, WAY WAY overpay at the deadline for quality of players that we could have had for relative peanuts earlier in the  winter.

Again, what time tomorrow do the Cavs play? I need some relief from our relief.

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Gio Tracking

Hah!   He begins with a play on words but where will he go from there?

You know, in the old days I would have gone ballistic over the loss of Gio Urshela.   However, with age comes perspective.  So let's think about this.

First, let's look at the negatives:

Last year we DFA'd Jesus Aguilar.  Aguilar has made that move look very shortsighted but look at what we had at his positions (DH and 1B).  Edwin Encarnacion and Carlos Santana.  There was no place for him AND he failed in many opportunities, albeit small sample size opportunities in the majors and he looked like he might be topping out at AAA.

Now we DFA'd Gio Urshela.  Again, the guy had gotten chances in the majors but didn't latch onto them, showing a great, versatile glove but not much with the bat.   Yeah, he could have been a great utility guy but we had one and, with Urshela's hitting woes, it made the choice between him and Erik Gonzalez a difficult one.

What's the bottom line?  Many organizations have guys who just can't make it to the majors as they are not sound enough in all aspects of the game, especially when their hitting or hitting for power is suspect. The term thrown around is AAAA player, not quite good enough for the majors but great at AAA.   I don't think either Aguilar or Urshela are AAAA players.   I think they are major league players for mid- to low-level ML teams.  We are not either of those so if you have to lose Urshela because you can't keep him on your 25, well, then you are destined to lose him.

Could we have done a better job preparing for this and maybe getting something more than cash for Urshela and, before him, Aguilar?  Probably.   However while I would love to have Aguilar and Urshela on the team I still think I would rather have Gonzalez and Encarnacion.

Don't think it stops there, folks.  Yandy Diaz, Yu Chang, etc. are right on the heels of Urshela.  We will have to deal with them next as, hopefully, Francisco Lindor is not going anywhere for a while.  Ditto for Jose Ramirez.

However, unless one of these guys develops into a solid major leaguer, we will lose them, too.  

The goal is to have the fewest Brandon Phillips, Jesus Aguilar mistakes as possible.  I would love to tell you that Urshela won't be successful anywhere else but I think he will.  The goal then shifts to getting something for him, which we didn't do, either.

The point is, Urshela wasn't successful here and we had no room for him and his lack of success made trading him difficult.  In my opinion a great GM gets value for guys like Urshela.   He didn't get any value and Urshela is no longer here.  I hate it but I get it.





Friday, May 4, 2018

Thoughts for a Friday

#stopruiningourstarters: Twice yesterday, trying to avoid using the bullpen, Francona left in starters in a couple of batters too long.   Carrasco was at an even 100 pitches after 5 innings and a lot of those were high pressure pitches as he had given up 5 runs.   Plutko had gone 7 innings and we were comfortably ahead and he was at 103 pitches.   Both times this backfired on Francona as has this tactic almost every time he has used it in his tenure as a manager.

I know Tito says he wants to win every game but, as I said before, if that was true he would stop sending Tomlin out there and stop playing Kipnis.

He is KILLING our starters with this crap.   He just needs to stop.  Yeah, we get it.  Your bullpen sucks and they are losing us games.  Find a way to MAKE this bullpen successful.  STOP ruining our starters.

#whattodowithgio:  I have the solution to the Gio Urshela situation.   Get rid of Brandon Guyer.  Look, Guyer is a good idea just like Abe Almonte was, in a vacuum, a good idea.   But it practice there is a reason that guys like Guyer hang on as 23rd to 25th men and, if they become free agents, are likely to only be signed to cheap contracts or minor league deals.   If he has a minor league option left then use it.  Otherwise, DFA him and bring up Urshela.  Erik Gonzalez can play some OF if necessary as can Ramirez.   Look, Urshela is not going to hit like he hit in AAA but he is a better hitter now and keeps getting a little better each year.  His glove and versatility along with the versatility of Gonzalez gives Francona just what he needs.

#toppropectsslumping:  Francisco Mejia and Bobby Bradley have struggled so far this year (Bradley did break out yesterday).   So what is up?   My feeling is that nothing is up but it is worth watching.  On the same thought Shane Bieber was promoted to AAA and put in a solid start in his first outing.   I wonder, given how bad Columbus' veteran minor league deal starters are doing if Bieber sticks.   I think he does.

#startingpitchingdepth:  Speaking of Bieber and Plutko, they have added some starting pitching depth to the Indians.  I know Francona doesn't like to have a long reliever in his bullpen but how many times so far this year has he needed one and, instead, had to burn through 3 or 4 guys to get the game done.   It may be time to bite the bullet and move Tomlin to the bullpen for the rest of the season and give Plutko his shot.   If he does struggle Bieber might be ready by that time and we can always fall back to Tomlin later in the season.

#bullpensucks:  Hey, it's not like this is unexpected.   Goody and Olson were potential one-year wonders waiting to happen.   McAllister fell so out of favor that he was an afterthought in the playoffs.  The only good thing about the Miller injury is that it kept Francona from overusing  him in the last week or so.    This is what you get when you don't improve your bullpen every year.   It was crazy to lose Shaw and not sign someone else of quality.  Instead we went bottom of the barrel fishing and what we got: Belisle, Belliveau, etc. has actually made things worse.   At this point the only thing left might be to start bringing up minor leaguers and hope that each will be good for about a month before the league figures him out, at which point you move on to the next guy.   One thing is for sure:  what it will cost us in prospects to fix this issue in July will be MUCH worse than what we would have had to spend over budget to fix this issue last off-season.  You don't buy a Mercedes and then replace your blown out left front tire with a repaired tire from Joe's Automart.   That is what we did and now the Indians need to fix this WITHOUT losing prospects doing it.   You know, maybe they should bring in Whitey Herzog as a consultant.  He was great at making a bullpen out of nothing, figuratively speaking.