Kluber just looked off. He clearly looked, from the first pitch, like he was dropping his elbow and getting underneath his pitches. They say he is healthy but his start last night was reminiscent of last post-season.
Speaking of throwback performances, Tyler Naquin is looking a lot like the Tyler Naquin of the 2016 playoffs. I hope he turns it around but he looks more like a AAAA player to me every day.
Speaking of AAAA players, Lonnie Chisenhall really should have caught Carpenter's HR in the 1st inning. I mean, I could have caught that ball and I am 65 years old. And his throw to home plate on the base hit? The guy should have been out by 10 feet but Chisenhall looked like he was just trying to get rid of it as fast as he could and, as a result, got no speed on the throw. And his hits in this series? Total luck. There is a reason the guy has no HRs. His swing is so weak that the ball can't even make it to the outfielders. Once people get this and start playing him more shallow, he will be done unless he fixes this.
Typical bullpen night. Yawn!
Finally, Alonso looked very uncomfortable in the box. Plus, as good of a fielder as he is, he should have made the play on the ball he deflected to Kipnis. Kipnis, for the second night in a row, looked shaky defensively. He is really showing no range at all at this point.
In summary, this loss was, to me, more than just a bad loss. We need to fix the things above.
Wednesday, June 27, 2018
Monday, June 25, 2018
Let's Talk July Trades
First, let me reiterate that if we trade prospects for relievers it is the fault of the Indains' management. Not many people were pointing to our lack of activity over the winter in bringing in bullpen depth...but they are all saying it now.
Rant over...for a while.
Now let's talk about July and beyond:
Clearly the Indians need bullpen help and a righthanded hitting power bat, preferably one who can play right field or third base (with Jose Ramirez moving to second base).
So, what do I do before July 31st? Nothing.
Guys cost less after the non-waiver trade deadline.
Last year we got a situational righty in Joe Smith for two good (in my opinion) prospects: Thomas Pannone and Samad Taylor. Pannone has been suspended for supposed drug use and Taylor has been less than impressive this year at the plate. Still, in my opinion it was a lot to pay for a, at the time, redundant reliever.
Contrast that to getting Jay Bruce for Ryder Ryan. Ryan has already made his way up to AA so the Mets may have something there but, at the time, he was a converted position player at low A at 22 years old. Bruce was a starting player who gave us needed power and veteran leadership.
In comparing those trades and others that normally happen, teams get better value in August. Yeah, the inventory is less but that August 1st demarcation line generally turns a bidding war into a bargain basement sale.
A lot of names have been bandied about but the one that intrigues me most is Adrian Beltre. If Beltre is available in August I would do a Jay Bruce-like trade for him. He is my biggest target. If he is gone before August 1st, oh well.
As far as a right handed reliever, the Joe Smith trade tells me that these guys will be overpriced in July. So, once again, wait until August.
The key here is not to trade the future for the present. I don't think, based on circumstances at the time or since the trade, anyone would consider any of the guys we traded last year to be 'the future' of this franchise. So, using that yardstick, guys like Cameron Hill, Connor Marabell and Tyler Krieger should be available but guys like Willi Castro, Yu Chiang Chang and Aaron Civale should not be, These latter 3, it could be easily argued, will be an integral, though not primary, part of the future.
So, my plea to the Indians is: WAIT 'TILL AUGUST! and DONT OVERPAY.
Rant over...for a while.
Now let's talk about July and beyond:
Clearly the Indians need bullpen help and a righthanded hitting power bat, preferably one who can play right field or third base (with Jose Ramirez moving to second base).
So, what do I do before July 31st? Nothing.
Guys cost less after the non-waiver trade deadline.
Last year we got a situational righty in Joe Smith for two good (in my opinion) prospects: Thomas Pannone and Samad Taylor. Pannone has been suspended for supposed drug use and Taylor has been less than impressive this year at the plate. Still, in my opinion it was a lot to pay for a, at the time, redundant reliever.
Contrast that to getting Jay Bruce for Ryder Ryan. Ryan has already made his way up to AA so the Mets may have something there but, at the time, he was a converted position player at low A at 22 years old. Bruce was a starting player who gave us needed power and veteran leadership.
In comparing those trades and others that normally happen, teams get better value in August. Yeah, the inventory is less but that August 1st demarcation line generally turns a bidding war into a bargain basement sale.
A lot of names have been bandied about but the one that intrigues me most is Adrian Beltre. If Beltre is available in August I would do a Jay Bruce-like trade for him. He is my biggest target. If he is gone before August 1st, oh well.
As far as a right handed reliever, the Joe Smith trade tells me that these guys will be overpriced in July. So, once again, wait until August.
The key here is not to trade the future for the present. I don't think, based on circumstances at the time or since the trade, anyone would consider any of the guys we traded last year to be 'the future' of this franchise. So, using that yardstick, guys like Cameron Hill, Connor Marabell and Tyler Krieger should be available but guys like Willi Castro, Yu Chiang Chang and Aaron Civale should not be, These latter 3, it could be easily argued, will be an integral, though not primary, part of the future.
So, my plea to the Indians is: WAIT 'TILL AUGUST! and DONT OVERPAY.
Wednesday, June 20, 2018
Draft update
Right now we have saved $264,400 from our draft budget. If you add that to the 5% overage we are allowed before we lose a draft pick, we have $721,600 above budget to play with.
I don't have the bonus figure for Cody Morris (ranked 292, drafted 223) yet and we can't sign Steven Kwan (drafted 163, ranked 262) because he is still playing in the College World Series but I can envision them saving another $135,000 from those two based on where they were ranked vs the spot they were drafted.
This assumes that we sign Naylor for slot. Given that his ranking was pretty solid during the year and he was drafted about where he was ranked, that is a pretty good assumption.
Thus we likely will have $400,000 (if we don't want to pay a penalty) to $850,000 to play with if we have to go over slot for guys.
So where would we use this money?
Hankins - The guy was in the conversation to go #1 overall this past winter. So you have to imagine that $2 million won't be enough to sign him. Let's assume it will take $2.5 to get him to sign.
If that is the case and we have that money left it will mean we are roughly $100,000 into the penalty area where we have to give MLB $100,000 to match this overage.
So, if we want to keep going, who is left?
1. I think Kaleb Hill is out of the question. I think he was a flyer if Hankins or Torres didn't sign.
2. Korey Holland is interesting. I think it might take $1 million to get him to sign (he was rated just a little lower than Delgado and has a strong commitment to Texas, judging by his Twitter page). So my guess is he doesn't sign.
3. Antoine Duplantis - If we spend any more money I think it will be on DuPlantis. Ranked #205 I can't imagine him making any more than $200,000 as a senior signing so I think $250,000 would likely cause him to sign and get his pro career started.
If they have the money I think DuPlantis is going to get signed. As far as Holland, I doubt it. Hill is a definite no. There may be some other signings but I doubt that any of them will be over slot although we might go to $150,000 if we really want a guy.
The Indians are still a small market club. There is a distinct possibility that they might not spend any money above slot at all if they need a good chunk above slot to sign Hankins. They would still sign guys who would sign for slot but remember they would be gauging a guy's worth on the actual cost to sign him. So, while DuPlantis might sign for $250,000, with penalty his bonus cost to the Indians would be $375,000.
I don't have the bonus figure for Cody Morris (ranked 292, drafted 223) yet and we can't sign Steven Kwan (drafted 163, ranked 262) because he is still playing in the College World Series but I can envision them saving another $135,000 from those two based on where they were ranked vs the spot they were drafted.
This assumes that we sign Naylor for slot. Given that his ranking was pretty solid during the year and he was drafted about where he was ranked, that is a pretty good assumption.
Thus we likely will have $400,000 (if we don't want to pay a penalty) to $850,000 to play with if we have to go over slot for guys.
So where would we use this money?
Hankins - The guy was in the conversation to go #1 overall this past winter. So you have to imagine that $2 million won't be enough to sign him. Let's assume it will take $2.5 to get him to sign.
If that is the case and we have that money left it will mean we are roughly $100,000 into the penalty area where we have to give MLB $100,000 to match this overage.
So, if we want to keep going, who is left?
1. I think Kaleb Hill is out of the question. I think he was a flyer if Hankins or Torres didn't sign.
2. Korey Holland is interesting. I think it might take $1 million to get him to sign (he was rated just a little lower than Delgado and has a strong commitment to Texas, judging by his Twitter page). So my guess is he doesn't sign.
3. Antoine Duplantis - If we spend any more money I think it will be on DuPlantis. Ranked #205 I can't imagine him making any more than $200,000 as a senior signing so I think $250,000 would likely cause him to sign and get his pro career started.
If they have the money I think DuPlantis is going to get signed. As far as Holland, I doubt it. Hill is a definite no. There may be some other signings but I doubt that any of them will be over slot although we might go to $150,000 if we really want a guy.
The Indians are still a small market club. There is a distinct possibility that they might not spend any money above slot at all if they need a good chunk above slot to sign Hankins. They would still sign guys who would sign for slot but remember they would be gauging a guy's worth on the actual cost to sign him. So, while DuPlantis might sign for $250,000, with penalty his bonus cost to the Indians would be $375,000.
Saturday, June 16, 2018
A thought for the next collective bargaining agreement
As the Indians signed at least two marginal prospects for over slot after the first 10 rounds this year I had a thought.
What if, in the next collective bargaining agreement they created two separate pools with the same rules.
In rounds 1-10 you have a slot value assigned to every player. That adds to your draft budget. If you fail to sign a player you lose that slot value from your budget. Just like it is now.
In rounds 11-40 you have a slot value of $100,000 assigned to every pick. Since every team gets 30 picks that means you have $3,000,000 to play with. However, just like in the first 10 rounds, if you fail to sign that pick you lose that slot value of $100,000. The only difference here is if you go over your budget by 5% you lose your 10th round pick next year. If you go over by 10% you lose your first round pick
Also, you can't use any of your first 10 round budget in the last 30 rounds and vice versa.
What this does is two things:
1. Gives teams at least as big if not a bigger budget for their first 10 round picks as they don't have to dip into that budget if they sign a player for over slot in the last 30 rounds.
2. Adds some spice to that last 30 rounds as you have a reasonable chance to believe that your team might actually be able to sign one of those late round flyers they draft as all they have to do is sign 11 college seniors for $1,000 each to get an additional million to use to sign one flyer ($1.1 cap) or a couple of flyers (some combination of $1.2 million split between those two guys).
What do you think about this change?
What if, in the next collective bargaining agreement they created two separate pools with the same rules.
In rounds 1-10 you have a slot value assigned to every player. That adds to your draft budget. If you fail to sign a player you lose that slot value from your budget. Just like it is now.
In rounds 11-40 you have a slot value of $100,000 assigned to every pick. Since every team gets 30 picks that means you have $3,000,000 to play with. However, just like in the first 10 rounds, if you fail to sign that pick you lose that slot value of $100,000. The only difference here is if you go over your budget by 5% you lose your 10th round pick next year. If you go over by 10% you lose your first round pick
Also, you can't use any of your first 10 round budget in the last 30 rounds and vice versa.
What this does is two things:
1. Gives teams at least as big if not a bigger budget for their first 10 round picks as they don't have to dip into that budget if they sign a player for over slot in the last 30 rounds.
2. Adds some spice to that last 30 rounds as you have a reasonable chance to believe that your team might actually be able to sign one of those late round flyers they draft as all they have to do is sign 11 college seniors for $1,000 each to get an additional million to use to sign one flyer ($1.1 cap) or a couple of flyers (some combination of $1.2 million split between those two guys).
What do you think about this change?
Friday, June 15, 2018
Hey, does this guy have his calculator on backwards?
The latest draft pick signing is 9th rounder Brian Eichhorn who signed for a meager $6200 over bonus slot value. Doesn't seem like much but the guy was the 417th ranked player in the draft by BA and we drafted him at #283. Teams like who they like. I get that. But when you draft a guy higher than where his talent slots you anticipate he will sign below slot. It is common in the draft for teams to do that at the end of the first 10 rounds. It gives them extra money to sign their top picks or to throw at late round flyers.
Look, while Eichhorn's bonus was only a laughable amount over slot it was still over slot. So far we have signed 4 guys that we know of to over slot bonuses and only 1 guy to an under slot bonus. By my calculation we have only $67,900 total left to go over slot. And this is not from our draft pool but from our draft pool PLUS the 5% overage that we can use (with penalty) before we lose our first round pick next year.
Our draft director is setting us up to maybe sign only one of our top 3 draft picks, 2 at the best. Unless all these guys sign for slot or Palacios and Sandlin signed for a lot under slot, we are looking at being screwed in this draft by not signing all the players in the first 10 rounds.
Hey, if you like a guy you should be willing to pay to sign him. However, the guys that they are signing to over slot bonuses mostly don't deserve those over slot dollars.
Hankins is the only guy who deserved an over slot bonus. If they want to give Delgado some over slot money that is up to them. But they should have saved money with Eichhorn, Broom and Royalty and NOT given over slot bonuses to questionable prospects in rounds after 10.
I am telling you that this is serious. I hope this guy knows what he is doing but from everything we have seen, it doesn't appear that he does. I hope I am wrong.
Look, while Eichhorn's bonus was only a laughable amount over slot it was still over slot. So far we have signed 4 guys that we know of to over slot bonuses and only 1 guy to an under slot bonus. By my calculation we have only $67,900 total left to go over slot. And this is not from our draft pool but from our draft pool PLUS the 5% overage that we can use (with penalty) before we lose our first round pick next year.
Our draft director is setting us up to maybe sign only one of our top 3 draft picks, 2 at the best. Unless all these guys sign for slot or Palacios and Sandlin signed for a lot under slot, we are looking at being screwed in this draft by not signing all the players in the first 10 rounds.
Hey, if you like a guy you should be willing to pay to sign him. However, the guys that they are signing to over slot bonuses mostly don't deserve those over slot dollars.
Hankins is the only guy who deserved an over slot bonus. If they want to give Delgado some over slot money that is up to them. But they should have saved money with Eichhorn, Broom and Royalty and NOT given over slot bonuses to questionable prospects in rounds after 10.
I am telling you that this is serious. I hope this guy knows what he is doing but from everything we have seen, it doesn't appear that he does. I hope I am wrong.
Thursday, June 14, 2018
Interesting draft developments
Here are some things I didn't expect:
1. How much they went over slot for Delgado. You have to ask yourself is this guy, who lasted until the 6th round, really worth that much money. His BA talent slot of 84 says that he was, as he got about slot 70 money. But still, that much over budget?
2. That they gave Jenkins and Lavastida over slot bonuses. While it looks like chump change ($75,000 total over budget) given the Delgado thing, every penny counts.
3. Broom got slot money in the 10th round
Here is what I did expect:
1. That they gave Adam Scott $50,000
So, where do we stand? Right now we are $383,100 over budget. Even considering the 5% overage from our budget before we lose our first round pick next year, we can only go over budget $74,160 TOTAL with our remaining picks.
Let's hope our new draft guru knows what he is doing. His predecessors certainly did, at least in the last 3 years. All we need to do is sign all these guys and we have a fighting chance of having a good draft. However, if we don't sign all of our first 10 round picks, especially if we fail to sign any of our top 3 picks, this draft is looking a little weak to me, given how low in each round we selected.
So far, to me, his draft strategy is looking really shaky. I think we need to save $600,000 more in the first 10 rounds to sign Hankins and I don't him being able to save any more than $400,000 total on his remaining picks not counting Hankins, who I don't think will want to sign for anywhere near slot. I hope I am wrong.
Time will tell.
1. How much they went over slot for Delgado. You have to ask yourself is this guy, who lasted until the 6th round, really worth that much money. His BA talent slot of 84 says that he was, as he got about slot 70 money. But still, that much over budget?
2. That they gave Jenkins and Lavastida over slot bonuses. While it looks like chump change ($75,000 total over budget) given the Delgado thing, every penny counts.
3. Broom got slot money in the 10th round
Here is what I did expect:
1. That they gave Adam Scott $50,000
So, where do we stand? Right now we are $383,100 over budget. Even considering the 5% overage from our budget before we lose our first round pick next year, we can only go over budget $74,160 TOTAL with our remaining picks.
Let's hope our new draft guru knows what he is doing. His predecessors certainly did, at least in the last 3 years. All we need to do is sign all these guys and we have a fighting chance of having a good draft. However, if we don't sign all of our first 10 round picks, especially if we fail to sign any of our top 3 picks, this draft is looking a little weak to me, given how low in each round we selected.
So far, to me, his draft strategy is looking really shaky. I think we need to save $600,000 more in the first 10 rounds to sign Hankins and I don't him being able to save any more than $400,000 total on his remaining picks not counting Hankins, who I don't think will want to sign for anywhere near slot. I hope I am wrong.
Time will tell.
Tuesday, June 12, 2018
Odds and Ends
After Plutko tonight I really worry that guys like him, Bieber and Civale, while looking good in the minors, just don't have that margin of error that is needed in the majors. They may have to be so perfect to succeed that it may be unrealistic to expect them to ever be even as good as Clevinger is.
Time will tell.
To change the subject to basketball, it is time for LeBron to leave and for the rebuild to start. If the Cavaliers make the playoffs next year they lose their #1 pick for the 2019 draft.
They are an aging team and they need to start to rebuild. Pretty much trade anyone who is tradeable and then either live with or release the rest.
Cleveland has monopolized LeBron enough during his career. He needs to go somewhere else.
And the Cavaliers need to start the rebuild right now, trading veterans to get either 2018 or 2019 first round picks.
Just one blogger's opinion. Take it with a grain of salt.
Time will tell.
To change the subject to basketball, it is time for LeBron to leave and for the rebuild to start. If the Cavaliers make the playoffs next year they lose their #1 pick for the 2019 draft.
They are an aging team and they need to start to rebuild. Pretty much trade anyone who is tradeable and then either live with or release the rest.
Cleveland has monopolized LeBron enough during his career. He needs to go somewhere else.
And the Cavaliers need to start the rebuild right now, trading veterans to get either 2018 or 2019 first round picks.
Just one blogger's opinion. Take it with a grain of salt.
Monday, June 11, 2018
Draft Results: How we doing and how we doing vs our bonus pool
So far we have signed two guys who are of note relative to their bonuses vs their bonus slot:
Raynel Delgado apparently signed for $900,000 which is about $664,400 over slot.
Brian Lavatista apparently singed for $175,000 which is $50,000 over slot.
Now, I don't know if this is REAL bonus money or if some amount of college tuition is also included in these numbers. Obviously the latter would not count against the bonus cap.
However, if you believe that these numbers are accurate they are very disconcerting as I was expecting us to use our excess money to sign Hankins. Why Delgado would require that large of bonus is puzzling to me. His pre-draft rating would have suggested a bonus of about $400,000 to $450,000 as a more reasonable over slot bonus.
Stay tuned for more details.
Raynel Delgado apparently signed for $900,000 which is about $664,400 over slot.
Brian Lavatista apparently singed for $175,000 which is $50,000 over slot.
Now, I don't know if this is REAL bonus money or if some amount of college tuition is also included in these numbers. Obviously the latter would not count against the bonus cap.
However, if you believe that these numbers are accurate they are very disconcerting as I was expecting us to use our excess money to sign Hankins. Why Delgado would require that large of bonus is puzzling to me. His pre-draft rating would have suggested a bonus of about $400,000 to $450,000 as a more reasonable over slot bonus.
Stay tuned for more details.
Thursday, June 7, 2018
MLB Draft - 3rd day results and analysis
OK, let's talk about what the Indians did in the 3rd day of the ML draft. But before we do, let's put this in context. From 2011-2014 h3re are the significant guys the Indians drafted AND signed after the 10th round.
2011: Cody Anderson, Ryan Merritt, Shawn Armstrong, Shawn Morimando
2012: Nellie Rodriguez, Louis Head
2013: Adam Plutko, Ben Heller, Jordan Milbrath
So you can see that while the Indians have found some gems in the later rounds they are usually pitchers and, except for maybe Plutko (and Anderson if he gets healthy) are not difference makers over the long haul.
So, back to today's selections. I had said last night that you can expect college pitchers, up the middle college players and 2-3 HS flyers. That appears to be what happened.
HS Flyers (1) - Korey Holland HS OFer (MLB #141 draft prospect picked at 433), 6 of the last 7 picks were HS players including Kaleb Hill (#205 BA),
Six of the last 7 players the Indians selected were high schoolers. It is possible that if Hankins doesn't sign they will spread the money around to all their late-round HS draftees and to Duplantis.
Summary:
I don't see many surprises in the final 30 rounds. The Indians historically draft a lot of college pitchers in this part of the draft and drafted a lot this year. I truly believe that this is an all-your-eggs-in-one-basket draft with that 'basket' being Hankins. Yeah, there are other guys who are quality prospects but I think they want Hankins really badly and constructed their draft to sign him AND to bring in college pitching depth into their system towards the development of relief pitchers including their closer of the future. As I said after the first day, I think this draft and the 2017 draft signal that the Indians are, in the next year or two, going to start a massive rebuild. Nothing I saw the second and third days changes that. All the college pitchers drafted on those days are ticketed, eventually, for the bullpen. If you believe that it means the development path of some of these guys might get a little long, meaning that they will likely start being effective about the time the rest of our prospects hit the majors in 2022-24.
To file something away for next year, if the Indians are truly contemplating a rebuild, look for them to select mostly college players near the top of the draft next year as their development path would put them in line with what our 2017 HS draftees are on.
2011: Cody Anderson, Ryan Merritt, Shawn Armstrong, Shawn Morimando
2012: Nellie Rodriguez, Louis Head
2013: Adam Plutko, Ben Heller, Jordan Milbrath
So you can see that while the Indians have found some gems in the later rounds they are usually pitchers and, except for maybe Plutko (and Anderson if he gets healthy) are not difference makers over the long haul.
So, back to today's selections. I had said last night that you can expect college pitchers, up the middle college players and 2-3 HS flyers. That appears to be what happened.
HS Flyers (1) - Korey Holland HS OFer (MLB #141 draft prospect picked at 433), 6 of the last 7 picks were HS players including Kaleb Hill (#205 BA),
Six of the last 7 players the Indians selected were high schoolers. It is possible that if Hankins doesn't sign they will spread the money around to all their late-round HS draftees and to Duplantis.
Summary:
I don't see many surprises in the final 30 rounds. The Indians historically draft a lot of college pitchers in this part of the draft and drafted a lot this year. I truly believe that this is an all-your-eggs-in-one-basket draft with that 'basket' being Hankins. Yeah, there are other guys who are quality prospects but I think they want Hankins really badly and constructed their draft to sign him AND to bring in college pitching depth into their system towards the development of relief pitchers including their closer of the future. As I said after the first day, I think this draft and the 2017 draft signal that the Indians are, in the next year or two, going to start a massive rebuild. Nothing I saw the second and third days changes that. All the college pitchers drafted on those days are ticketed, eventually, for the bullpen. If you believe that it means the development path of some of these guys might get a little long, meaning that they will likely start being effective about the time the rest of our prospects hit the majors in 2022-24.
To file something away for next year, if the Indians are truly contemplating a rebuild, look for them to select mostly college players near the top of the draft next year as their development path would put them in line with what our 2017 HS draftees are on.
Tuesday, June 5, 2018
Draft recap, rounds 3-10
OK, let's dive in.
Round 3 - Richard Palacios - college SS - The Indians love of drafting college middle infielders in the middle of the first 10 rounds is really interesting. Tyler Krieger, Mark Mathias, Ernie Clement, Jesse Berardi...these guys all fit this mold. I don't get it but my hope is that Palacios will sign for about $300,000 under slot.
Round 4 - Adam Scott, RHP - college senior - The first true sellout of this draft for the Indians. By this I mean drafting a guy with no leverage and paying him so little that most, if not almost all of his slot bonus can go to another player. No doubt he will get about $50,000 which is much better than the $1,000 he would have gotten had he been taken after round 10.
Round 5 - Steven Kwan, college CFer (like Ka'i Tom a couple of years ago) - Another player who I am sure they hope they can sign for about $100,000 under slot. He was ranked 262 by Baseball America which would fit with him signing for that much under his draft slot value.
Round 6 - Raynel Delgado - HS 3B - Also in character for previous drafts, the Indians draft a HS guy who seems to be a steal (draft slot vs national ranking) who you think would be a tough signing. But then they sign for slot or a tiny bit over. Think Connor Capel of the 2016 draft and, if you want a position comparison, think Ulysses Cantu from the same draft.
Round 7 - Cody Morris - RH college pitcher - Think Kirk McCarthy, James Karinchak, Eli Morgan. He should sign for slot or below with the goal to save us maybe $50,000 in bonus pool money. Considering his BA rank is 292 and he was drafted 223, that makes sense. Plus, he has some upside. Maybe, like Sandlin, they plan to make Morris a reliever. That would make sense as they have had some luck turning college pitchers into pro relievers.
Round 8 - Alex Royalty - RH college pitcher - Another signability pick, the Indians again looking to stockpile bonus money as Royalty was not even ranked in BA's top 500.
Round 9 - Brian Eichhorn - RH college pitcher - Following a trend, Eichhorn was ranked only 419th by BA.
Round 10 - Robert Broom - RH college pitcher - Completes the trend. BA ranks him 453.
Summary - This is one of the most boring, yet intriguing 2nd days of the draft I have ever seen with the Indians. It does seem like the Indians are trying to save bonus pool money by who they drafted on day 2. In so doing they went to mostly college pitchers (6 of the first 12 picks and the last 4 on Day 2) and up the middle college position players (CF, SS, one each) and sprinkled in one intriguing HS hitter who might require a slightly over slot bonus but fits the mold of building a farm system based on dumping a bunch of prospects into the majors in 2022-2024. Basically it looks like day 2 was about saving money, more than I can ever remember with the Indians. To me this means that Hankins will be expensive and they will be going for him.
As far as bonus predictions for these 12 guys here is what I see:
Noah Naylor $2.3 million (slot)
Ethan Hankins $3.1 million ($1.1 million over slot) - equal to the slot for the 20th overall selection
Lenny Torres $1.6 million ($100,000 under slot)
Nick Sandlin $750 thousand ($190,000 under slot)
Richard Palacios $475 thousand ($69,000 under slot)
Adam Scott $50,000 ($356,000 under slot)
Raynel Delgado $235,000 (slot)
Cody Morris $150,000 ($35,000 under slot)
Alex Royalty $135,000 ($15,000 under slot)
Brian Eichhorn $120,000 ($23,000 under slot)
Robert Broom $110,000 ($26,000 under slot)
Total for first 10 rounds vs slot: $286,000 over slot
Amount left before reach 5% over pool total amount: $171,260
Predictions for Day 3 - The Indians have had lots of luck drafting good college pitchers near the beginning of day 3 (Adam Plutko and Zach Plesac come to mind), and going a little over slot to sign those guys. Look for some of that. Look also for the Indians to draft 2-3 HS prospects as "flyers", guys who, if Hankins doesn't sign, they can use their extra bonus pool on. They likely will also take some HS guys who end up signing (normally HS guys picked after the 10th round DON'T sign) as well as a bunch of up-the-middle (C, 2B/SS, CF) college hitters and, of course, some college pitchers (some juco, some college seniors, a couple of college juniors who likely won't sign). I predict we will not spend any of the remaining $171,260 that we have left before we get to 5% over our pool.
Round 3 - Richard Palacios - college SS - The Indians love of drafting college middle infielders in the middle of the first 10 rounds is really interesting. Tyler Krieger, Mark Mathias, Ernie Clement, Jesse Berardi...these guys all fit this mold. I don't get it but my hope is that Palacios will sign for about $300,000 under slot.
Round 4 - Adam Scott, RHP - college senior - The first true sellout of this draft for the Indians. By this I mean drafting a guy with no leverage and paying him so little that most, if not almost all of his slot bonus can go to another player. No doubt he will get about $50,000 which is much better than the $1,000 he would have gotten had he been taken after round 10.
Round 5 - Steven Kwan, college CFer (like Ka'i Tom a couple of years ago) - Another player who I am sure they hope they can sign for about $100,000 under slot. He was ranked 262 by Baseball America which would fit with him signing for that much under his draft slot value.
Round 6 - Raynel Delgado - HS 3B - Also in character for previous drafts, the Indians draft a HS guy who seems to be a steal (draft slot vs national ranking) who you think would be a tough signing. But then they sign for slot or a tiny bit over. Think Connor Capel of the 2016 draft and, if you want a position comparison, think Ulysses Cantu from the same draft.
Round 7 - Cody Morris - RH college pitcher - Think Kirk McCarthy, James Karinchak, Eli Morgan. He should sign for slot or below with the goal to save us maybe $50,000 in bonus pool money. Considering his BA rank is 292 and he was drafted 223, that makes sense. Plus, he has some upside. Maybe, like Sandlin, they plan to make Morris a reliever. That would make sense as they have had some luck turning college pitchers into pro relievers.
Round 8 - Alex Royalty - RH college pitcher - Another signability pick, the Indians again looking to stockpile bonus money as Royalty was not even ranked in BA's top 500.
Round 9 - Brian Eichhorn - RH college pitcher - Following a trend, Eichhorn was ranked only 419th by BA.
Round 10 - Robert Broom - RH college pitcher - Completes the trend. BA ranks him 453.
Summary - This is one of the most boring, yet intriguing 2nd days of the draft I have ever seen with the Indians. It does seem like the Indians are trying to save bonus pool money by who they drafted on day 2. In so doing they went to mostly college pitchers (6 of the first 12 picks and the last 4 on Day 2) and up the middle college position players (CF, SS, one each) and sprinkled in one intriguing HS hitter who might require a slightly over slot bonus but fits the mold of building a farm system based on dumping a bunch of prospects into the majors in 2022-2024. Basically it looks like day 2 was about saving money, more than I can ever remember with the Indians. To me this means that Hankins will be expensive and they will be going for him.
As far as bonus predictions for these 12 guys here is what I see:
Noah Naylor $2.3 million (slot)
Ethan Hankins $3.1 million ($1.1 million over slot) - equal to the slot for the 20th overall selection
Lenny Torres $1.6 million ($100,000 under slot)
Nick Sandlin $750 thousand ($190,000 under slot)
Richard Palacios $475 thousand ($69,000 under slot)
Adam Scott $50,000 ($356,000 under slot)
Raynel Delgado $235,000 (slot)
Cody Morris $150,000 ($35,000 under slot)
Alex Royalty $135,000 ($15,000 under slot)
Brian Eichhorn $120,000 ($23,000 under slot)
Robert Broom $110,000 ($26,000 under slot)
Total for first 10 rounds vs slot: $286,000 over slot
Amount left before reach 5% over pool total amount: $171,260
Predictions for Day 3 - The Indians have had lots of luck drafting good college pitchers near the beginning of day 3 (Adam Plutko and Zach Plesac come to mind), and going a little over slot to sign those guys. Look for some of that. Look also for the Indians to draft 2-3 HS prospects as "flyers", guys who, if Hankins doesn't sign, they can use their extra bonus pool on. They likely will also take some HS guys who end up signing (normally HS guys picked after the 10th round DON'T sign) as well as a bunch of up-the-middle (C, 2B/SS, CF) college hitters and, of course, some college pitchers (some juco, some college seniors, a couple of college juniors who likely won't sign). I predict we will not spend any of the remaining $171,260 that we have left before we get to 5% over our pool.
Monday, June 4, 2018
Draft Day 1 recap
Wow, interesting day drafting by the Indians. Just for grins, let's take a look at when we lose our top ML players.
Looking at our future free agents and when they become free agents, our window starts to close next year and is completely closed by the time the 2021 season rolls around. Yeah, we still have Lindor, Ramirez and Kluber, but, from the current minors and guys who are we currently on the ML roster, there isn't much talent there unless some guys like Zimmer, Allen, Mejia, Bradley, Chang and Diaz make major steps forward from where they are right now.
The only way this year's draft could influence our competitiveness in 2021 is if we drafted college hitters. If we draft HS players I would argue that our intent is to be in rebuild mode by 2021 to anticipate a big influx of talent from our recent (including this year's) HS draftees in 2022, 2023and 2024.
So who did we draft:
Pick #29 - Noah Naylor, high school catcher
Pick #35 - Ethan Hankins, high school RHP
Pick #41 - Lenny Torres, high school RHP
Pick #67 - Nick Sandlin, college RHP (ranked in the 140s - so an overdraft)
So, looking at these picks it is apparent the Indians don't have any anticipation that the first three picks will impact the 2021 ML team. To me, for a small market team with a weak farm system, this means they don't intend to compete in 2021, and maybe even before that.
Hey, in a vacuum I like this draft. But not to help us by 2021.
I just think that the next talent bolus coming up from the minors will be 2022, 2023 and 2024. I just don't see our current high class A, AA and AAA talent making a huge impact on our team in 2021. Yes, there will be positive impact but not enough.
So, Indians fans, I think tonight we saw the first acknowledgement that we will be undergoing a huge rebuild (as opposed to a re-load) in the next 2-3 years. Think 2018 Chicago White Sox and 2022 Cleveland Indians looking a lot the same.
Looking at our future free agents and when they become free agents, our window starts to close next year and is completely closed by the time the 2021 season rolls around. Yeah, we still have Lindor, Ramirez and Kluber, but, from the current minors and guys who are we currently on the ML roster, there isn't much talent there unless some guys like Zimmer, Allen, Mejia, Bradley, Chang and Diaz make major steps forward from where they are right now.
The only way this year's draft could influence our competitiveness in 2021 is if we drafted college hitters. If we draft HS players I would argue that our intent is to be in rebuild mode by 2021 to anticipate a big influx of talent from our recent (including this year's) HS draftees in 2022, 2023and 2024.
So who did we draft:
Pick #29 - Noah Naylor, high school catcher
Pick #35 - Ethan Hankins, high school RHP
Pick #41 - Lenny Torres, high school RHP
Pick #67 - Nick Sandlin, college RHP (ranked in the 140s - so an overdraft)
So, looking at these picks it is apparent the Indians don't have any anticipation that the first three picks will impact the 2021 ML team. To me, for a small market team with a weak farm system, this means they don't intend to compete in 2021, and maybe even before that.
Hey, in a vacuum I like this draft. But not to help us by 2021.
I just think that the next talent bolus coming up from the minors will be 2022, 2023 and 2024. I just don't see our current high class A, AA and AAA talent making a huge impact on our team in 2021. Yes, there will be positive impact but not enough.
So, Indians fans, I think tonight we saw the first acknowledgement that we will be undergoing a huge rebuild (as opposed to a re-load) in the next 2-3 years. Think 2018 Chicago White Sox and 2022 Cleveland Indians looking a lot the same.
Well, it's draft day...and other things.
First, thanks to the United Arab Emirates. The thousands of you who hit up this blog the other day was impressive...and puzzling.
Second, the Indians' bullpen sucks, it was upper management's stinginess and shortsighted nature that is doing 3 things (a) Francona is burning out our star starting pitchers); (b) we are losing games and (c) we are about to panic and make crazy trades at the deadline to fix our bullpen problems, trades that will likely cripple our player development system significantly. If you don't believe (c) one possible explanation for promoting Bieber so rapidly and getting Triston McKenzie to AA in a hurry is to showcase these guys, dangling them as tradebait later on.
Finally, and the subject of this post, today is the first day of the amateur player draft. As the Indians are drafting 29th in the first round and draft day is so fluid, there is a chance that the Indians will have a player fall to them they didn't think would be available. That's about all you can say at this point as anyone who thinks they can predict who the Indians will pick with the 29th pick really doesn't get the baseball draft.
So let's look at who the Indians NEED to draft. Yes, NEED. Again, anyone who says that teams shouldn't draft for need just doesn't get the realities of small market baseball. Yes, if you draft redundancies for positions already strong in your farm system you COULD always trade those extra assets, right? Yeah, but the reality is you can only trade those guys for veterans, not prospects in other systems that are redundant to that system's strength. So, in a small market club that tries to stuff its roster with quality, young, controllable, cheap players, drafting to your minor league depth strength is a bad idea in markets like Cleveland. So, what do you do?
You draft to need. Historically teams have followed strategies. But if your strategy fails they try another strategy. So let's take a look at the Indians' strategies and see how they have gone:
Second, the Indians' bullpen sucks, it was upper management's stinginess and shortsighted nature that is doing 3 things (a) Francona is burning out our star starting pitchers); (b) we are losing games and (c) we are about to panic and make crazy trades at the deadline to fix our bullpen problems, trades that will likely cripple our player development system significantly. If you don't believe (c) one possible explanation for promoting Bieber so rapidly and getting Triston McKenzie to AA in a hurry is to showcase these guys, dangling them as tradebait later on.
Finally, and the subject of this post, today is the first day of the amateur player draft. As the Indians are drafting 29th in the first round and draft day is so fluid, there is a chance that the Indians will have a player fall to them they didn't think would be available. That's about all you can say at this point as anyone who thinks they can predict who the Indians will pick with the 29th pick really doesn't get the baseball draft.
So let's look at who the Indians NEED to draft. Yes, NEED. Again, anyone who says that teams shouldn't draft for need just doesn't get the realities of small market baseball. Yes, if you draft redundancies for positions already strong in your farm system you COULD always trade those extra assets, right? Yeah, but the reality is you can only trade those guys for veterans, not prospects in other systems that are redundant to that system's strength. So, in a small market club that tries to stuff its roster with quality, young, controllable, cheap players, drafting to your minor league depth strength is a bad idea in markets like Cleveland. So, what do you do?
You draft to need. Historically teams have followed strategies. But if your strategy fails they try another strategy. So let's take a look at the Indians' strategies and see how they have gone:
- Draft speedy guys and turn them into well-rounded players. So far, Greg Allen (he of the classic 4th outfielder skills) is the best of what we got out of a number of such selections which include Silento Sayles and last year's top pick, Quentin Holmes. I would say that we could safely say at this point that this strategy has failed and likely the Indians won't use this strategy much, if at all, in this draft.
- Draft high school hitters early. While I like that idea the latest returns (Holmes, Benson, Jones, Ulysses Cantu, et al) haven't worked out as smashingly as we would like, making these guys more of long-term projects than guys who will fly through the minors and impact the ML team in the next few years. Expect them, at #29, to move away from that approach
- Draft pitchability guys knowing what they have a high floor and then trying to increase their ceiling (Adam Plutko, Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale are good examples). This strategy is in play in their early picks
- Draft left-handed hitting center fielders. So far this hasn't worked out well as Naquin, Zimmer and even Allen haven't established themselves as even solid major league players, let alone as infrequent all-stars, the latter being what you are looking for from players drafted early. We should and likely won't use this strategy.
- Draft college pitchers and make them relievers. While the success in the majors has not followed (think Shawn Armstrong) the success of the strategy is undeniable, based on the overachieving of the guys like this who we drafted. Expect some of this, as well.
- Draft good "D" college catchers and turn them into good hitters. Please, no more...ever.
In our farm system we have plenty of middle infielders, catchers, starting pitchers. What we need are right-handed hitting power-hitting outfielders, left-handed quality relievers, a close-in-training and middle relievers. We also want guys who will move fast and maybe even get to the big leagues before our recent group of HS hitters and pitchers. Thus, we will likely look at college hitters and pitchers with an occasional high school pitcher or two in the first 10 rounds, sprinkling in cheap college senior pitchers (no more catchers like Mike Rivera and Logan Ice, please)
With all this in play expect that the Indians will NOT draft the best available player at any point in the first 3 picks. I expect them to draft for need which is fast-moving college hiters and college pitchers with a little power to their game but who fill up the strikezone. Plus, we need a closer in training. Given what I know about this draft here are some guys I expect them to choose from. Again, think low draft slots and guys might not be available here but we know what we need (college players: outfielders who can move quickly and pitchability pitchers who can do the same, beating the closing of our 'window')
#29 - I would like to see the Indians get a RH hitting college outfielder here but I doubt it happens as most would be gone or be overdrafts (Tristan Pompey, for example) at this slot. Some good LH hitting outfielders could be available and I see them taking Walker Steele if he is available. He should move fast through the system and get to the majors in time to help while some of the current ML Indians are still with the club.
#35 - Tristan Pompey, RH hitting OF, Kentucky. Good power and he will move quickly through the system.
#41 - Seth Beer OF Clemson - He is a prototypical college power hitter. The only thing against him for me is that hits LH. Aside from that, if he is here at 41 (which I doubt) the Indians should grab him. Otherwise, draft a polished college pitcher who can be turned into a closer or is a closer already.
#67 - Here is where you hope that a solid college pitcher falls to them. If not, look for them to take RHP Tristan Beck from Stanford and try to sign him for a little under slot. Or, if they find a gem who has fallen, they could choose a HS pitcher here and live with him not being ready for a while. IF they do, you might see them overdraft a guy because he is a LH pitcher.
In the rest of the top 10 rounds look for them to take college seniors and pitchability college juniors like Eli Morgan. A few could be LH pitchers.
After the first 10 rounds look for them to stay in form and draft a few HS flyers and mostly college hitters and pitchers as organizational players who may be able to become serviceable ML players or, in the case of the pitchers, overachievers down the road.
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