Friday, March 15, 2019

Looking at the new rules: how they will impact the Indians

OK, here are my thoughts on the new rules:

2019

Trade deadline change - In my opinion this should NEVER impact the Tribe.  Why? Because the Indians should never have a short-term approach.  Small market teams should never be trading away prospects for a quick fix.   Trading prospects for guys with 2-3 seasons left before they reach free agency is another thing but those kinds of trades are usually done in July with August trades generally being limited to 1.5 month rentals of free agents to be.

Inning breaks - Does not impact the Indians more than other teams so no net positive or negative impact on the Tribe.

All-star game/Home Run derby - No impact on Indians more than other teams.

Mound visits - I am not sure how this impacts the Indians.    Francona tends to use a mix and match approach so uses a lot of relievers.   He also has veteran starters who know what they are doing and a catcher who has caught them all and so should be on the same page.  This would seem to limit mound visits for the Indians more than most teams so this might actually be an advantage for them.

2020

Active roster changes -

Expansion of roster from 25 to 26 players - I think that all teams may benefit from this.   Looking at the Indians this will impact them in two ways:  (1) positive impact - Francona likes a deep bullpen.  He can now have that AND add an additional position player.   (2) negative impact - As a budget-constricted small market team the additional major league salary will negatively impact their budget.   I think this might make them a little less competitive compared to large market teams with larger wallets.

Limiting rosters to 28 players in September -   While this should only impact the Indians short term in a positive, budgetary way as they won't have to pay a bunch of guys major league minimum salaries and the associated workload on staff won't be increased very much, I don't like this rule for two reasons.  (a) Teams who rely on their minor leagues to produce players will not be able to bring up prospects in September to get their feet wet in the major leagues.   The Indians fall into that category.   (b) this will eliminate long-term minor leaguers who work their butts off from getting rewarded with a cup of coffee in the majors.   That, to me, is really sad.   Sure, most of those guys are just DFA'd that winter but they at least had that shot.   If there is one rule I am TOTALLY against it is this one.

Capping the number of pitchers and playoff rosters/two-way players - I will have to wait until I see what the actual rules are to generate an opinion on this one.

Three batter minimum for pitchers - I think this negatively impacts the Indians because of the way Francona manages.   I also think that this negatively impacts left-on-left and right-on-right specialists.    If baseball wants to go that way then I think this rule change should be implemented in 2023, not 2020.   This gives teams time to change their draft strategies and to change their player development process away from developing pitching specialists.   Implementing this next year basically means that a number of pitchers will no longer have jobs.   I don't like this.

Injured list rules - Francona likes to use a lot of relievers.  I think the increase of the minimum time on the DL hurts the Indians for these reasons.   Teams who have really set bullpens like the Indians of 2016 won't have to worry.   But teams that are struggling on find pitchers for their bullpen will be placed at a disadvantage.    Basically, those are the small market teams with small budgets.   Any rule that favors big budget teams I don't like.

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