Wow, as a prospect-first guy I ought to be ecstatic over Plesac making his major league debut.
But I am not.
First, he is too green to be placed in this spot.
Second, yeah Plutko is up and down but logic would say you go with the more veteran guy
So, why are they bringing up a guy to make a start like this?
They have to know that another starting pitcher is not going to fix this team's problems.
I think they are bringing up to showcase him and to sell high on him to help this year's team.
The timing is right as non-contenders are likely going to want young starting pitching in return for a veteran they are trying to dump.
And Plesac is a 'bonus' prospect, meaning he was not on top prospect lists before the season and his loss would hurt but not impact the depth of our farm system compared to where it was in March.
So are they showcasing Plesac? I hope to heck not. Plesac, Civale, McKenzie....these are they guys you hold on to as if you want to trade any or all of Carrasco, Bauer and Kluber this winter or next July, these are exactly the three guys who you would want to plug into those spots in the rotation.
I will say this now and, I am sure, again later.
The Indians should NOT be making any prospect-for-veteran trades until the future production of Ramirez, Bauer, Kluber, Carrasco and Salazar are established and their trade value is higher.
Trading Plesac now would just be one more nail in the coffin of the 10-year future of the Cleveland Indians.
However, I can't see why they would bring him up now except to showcase him for a trade.
I hope I am wrong!!!!!
Sunday, May 26, 2019
We are at a crossroad. Which direction do we go
OK, some of you probably thought we would be at this point now.
Here is how we got here:
1. Ownership's mandate to cut salary
2 Management's plan to build this team around starting pitching and the bullpen, hope the hitters left could shoulder an increased load and hope that young guys could break out or veterans obtained on the cheap could be better than expected.
3. The belief by many that no team in our division was even good enough to break .500
4. Something would have to be done to win in the playoffs but exactly WHAT that was would be determined during the season.
So where we are now can really be summarized with these two sentences.
(a) The hitters haven't been able to do the job
(b) The Twins are likely going to finish above .500
Soooo, people are pushing the panic button or are getting comfortable with the fact that we may not make the playoffs this year due to the Twins overachieving and the fact that our plan is not working out.
The big question is: do we pull the plug on this season right now or at the trade deadline.
To me, the resounding answer is NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hey, I don't have stars in my eyes and think all of a sudden the world is going to turn upside down and the Indians will magically find a spark that pushes them back to the top of the AL Central.
But have a firesale? Well, everything is aligned to say that this is the LAST thing we should be doing. Here's why
a. Trevor Bauer has minimal trade value at this point. What, you say?!? Well, Francona overused him at the beginning of the year, starting all the way back in spring training. A case can be made that Bauer may never again be the same as he was last year. Francona has, potentially, DustyBaker-ed this guy into being so undervalued that we might as well keep him and hope that his arm is not so damaged by this extreme workload that he can recover. But with his past flaky history, his overuse early in the year and the poor performance recently, no team is going to meet the Indians asking price for Bauer and, frankly, the Indians should not be backing off the asking price they had for Bauer this past winter because the trade of Bauer better net us quality position player prospects of the type we got in the Joe Carter deal (i.e., Sandy Alomar, Jr. and Carlos Baerga)
b. Corey Kluber has minimal trade value at this point. Kluber was a big question mark BEFORE his arm got broken. The story is the same as Bauer's. Kluber could have been viewed as damaged goods BEFORE the injury and teams that wouldn't meet the Indains' price during the winter certainly won't meet it now.
c. Mike Clevinger and Shane Beiber should NEVER be traded. If we are rebuilding they are young, controllable pieces. If we are trying to contend now they are young, proven quantities. They are exactly the guys you keep no matter which way you are going.
d. Jose Ramirez is untradeable. No need to explain this one.
e. Carlos Santana is tradeable but a defensively challenged hitter who prospers only when he can DH part-time is not very valuable and, in his case, he is more valuable here than as trade bait, even if we cash in our chips for this year.
f. Brad Hand should NOT be traded. If the Indians are going to compete for the rest of this year and for next year, Hand has to be their closer. We can always trade him next July and get as good value as we can get now.
g. Francisco Lindor should not be traded now. Look, this one is emotional to me but trying to look at it objectively, you just don't trade the face of your franchise before you have to. He is not eligible for free agency until after the 2021 season. If you are even THINKING about trading him it should, as with Hand, not be until July next year. Trading him now really means that everyone on the roster is available and, as we said above, most of the better players are untradeable and the ones that aren't are too young to be traded.
h. Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar are not worth enough to trade right now. Now Carrasco has looked good lately and in a perfect world we could afford to lose one of Bauer, Kluber or Carrasco. But this is not a perfect world as we stated above. If Carrasco was a Cy Young candidate this year we might still think about trading him and gamble on the rest of the starters coming back into form. But since he likely won't yield what we were asking for for Bauer last winter, no since giving him away. Salazar might have been the perfect trade chip to get us help at the deadline but he is not untradeable.
h. Our other bullpen guys and remaining position players are not worth much and, as such, are untradeable.
Basically, if you are re-tooling or rebuilding you can't do it with this roster as it is currently performing. You either can't get enough back or you can't afford to trade guys in case you can compete next year.
As far as 'going for it'/'being all in' and trading prospects to get back in the race, our farm system is so thin right now and frankly no one has stood out the way Mejia did last year as guys are either hurt, underperforming or are so far down in the minors they don't have enough value to trade at this point.
.
Here is how we got here:
1. Ownership's mandate to cut salary
2 Management's plan to build this team around starting pitching and the bullpen, hope the hitters left could shoulder an increased load and hope that young guys could break out or veterans obtained on the cheap could be better than expected.
3. The belief by many that no team in our division was even good enough to break .500
4. Something would have to be done to win in the playoffs but exactly WHAT that was would be determined during the season.
So where we are now can really be summarized with these two sentences.
(a) The hitters haven't been able to do the job
(b) The Twins are likely going to finish above .500
Soooo, people are pushing the panic button or are getting comfortable with the fact that we may not make the playoffs this year due to the Twins overachieving and the fact that our plan is not working out.
The big question is: do we pull the plug on this season right now or at the trade deadline.
To me, the resounding answer is NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hey, I don't have stars in my eyes and think all of a sudden the world is going to turn upside down and the Indians will magically find a spark that pushes them back to the top of the AL Central.
But have a firesale? Well, everything is aligned to say that this is the LAST thing we should be doing. Here's why
a. Trevor Bauer has minimal trade value at this point. What, you say?!? Well, Francona overused him at the beginning of the year, starting all the way back in spring training. A case can be made that Bauer may never again be the same as he was last year. Francona has, potentially, DustyBaker-ed this guy into being so undervalued that we might as well keep him and hope that his arm is not so damaged by this extreme workload that he can recover. But with his past flaky history, his overuse early in the year and the poor performance recently, no team is going to meet the Indians asking price for Bauer and, frankly, the Indians should not be backing off the asking price they had for Bauer this past winter because the trade of Bauer better net us quality position player prospects of the type we got in the Joe Carter deal (i.e., Sandy Alomar, Jr. and Carlos Baerga)
b. Corey Kluber has minimal trade value at this point. Kluber was a big question mark BEFORE his arm got broken. The story is the same as Bauer's. Kluber could have been viewed as damaged goods BEFORE the injury and teams that wouldn't meet the Indains' price during the winter certainly won't meet it now.
c. Mike Clevinger and Shane Beiber should NEVER be traded. If we are rebuilding they are young, controllable pieces. If we are trying to contend now they are young, proven quantities. They are exactly the guys you keep no matter which way you are going.
d. Jose Ramirez is untradeable. No need to explain this one.
e. Carlos Santana is tradeable but a defensively challenged hitter who prospers only when he can DH part-time is not very valuable and, in his case, he is more valuable here than as trade bait, even if we cash in our chips for this year.
f. Brad Hand should NOT be traded. If the Indians are going to compete for the rest of this year and for next year, Hand has to be their closer. We can always trade him next July and get as good value as we can get now.
g. Francisco Lindor should not be traded now. Look, this one is emotional to me but trying to look at it objectively, you just don't trade the face of your franchise before you have to. He is not eligible for free agency until after the 2021 season. If you are even THINKING about trading him it should, as with Hand, not be until July next year. Trading him now really means that everyone on the roster is available and, as we said above, most of the better players are untradeable and the ones that aren't are too young to be traded.
h. Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar are not worth enough to trade right now. Now Carrasco has looked good lately and in a perfect world we could afford to lose one of Bauer, Kluber or Carrasco. But this is not a perfect world as we stated above. If Carrasco was a Cy Young candidate this year we might still think about trading him and gamble on the rest of the starters coming back into form. But since he likely won't yield what we were asking for for Bauer last winter, no since giving him away. Salazar might have been the perfect trade chip to get us help at the deadline but he is not untradeable.
h. Our other bullpen guys and remaining position players are not worth much and, as such, are untradeable.
Basically, if you are re-tooling or rebuilding you can't do it with this roster as it is currently performing. You either can't get enough back or you can't afford to trade guys in case you can compete next year.
As far as 'going for it'/'being all in' and trading prospects to get back in the race, our farm system is so thin right now and frankly no one has stood out the way Mejia did last year as guys are either hurt, underperforming or are so far down in the minors they don't have enough value to trade at this point.
.
Wednesday, May 8, 2019
Early minor league impressions
I know we are only a month into the season but here are some early impressions:
Bobby Bradley - He is hot now. I could easily see people pushing for him to be promoted. However, compare his numbers at AAA last year and this year. It looks like he is hitting for a little more average and power but his walk rate has dropped. I don't think that his numbers are sustainable at AAA, let alone in the majors.
Nolan Jones - His walk rate is EXTREMELY high but his power is non-existent. In fact, his High A numbers are almost identical to what they were last year at Lynchburg, except last year he showed more power. The extreme walk rate is interesting as is the higher batting average. I just don't know about the power completely disappearing,
Oscar Mercado - The thing about this guy is that he is stuffing the stat sheet every night. He looks like he is close to being ready for a promotion.
Oscar Gonzalez - Showing extremely high batting average and some power but, at this point, he hasn't walked even a single time this year. I just don't see the extremely low walk rate being sustainable.
James Karinchak - I saw him pitch a couple of times in spring training and what he is doing now is not unexpected based on the stuff I saw when he pitched this spring. He could come to the majors fast and stay for a long time.
Nick Sandlin - Here is a guy who will go from extended spring training to the majors by the end of the season. The key for me is that it appears now that he has shaken off almost all the rust and is ready to explode on the major league scene.
Zac Plesac - Another guy who is coming fast he could easily be the next Shane Bieber.
Kyle Nelson - For me he could be Vinnie Pestano Part Deux. I like his stuff and he hasn't been phased by the competitive level so far.
Eli Morgan - More of a gimmick guy to me, he will have to dominate at AA before I think he has a true shot. I think he can do that be the lack of that killer ML pitch is, for me, an issue.
Tyler Freeman - He looks solid to me. He has more doubles than Ks and more walks than Ks. He is shaky in the field but he definitely can handle the bat.
Will Benson - It's hard to tell what to make of him, being that he is repeating low A and most good players don't have to do that. Still, his numbers are up across the board from last year so the hope is that the light bulb has lit up and he will be on the steep part of his learning curve. Time will tell, though.
Luis Ovedo - Up and down this year. We will see how he holds up to a long season.
Bo Naylor - Really too early to tell but I remember Connor Capel, in the same position in terms of age, league and prospect status, struggling to stay above the Mendoza line for a good part of his season in LC. Have patience with Naylor but given the possible whiffs the scouting department had with Quentin Holmes and maybe Benson, Naylor's early struggles are surprising. Maybe he should be in Mahoning Valley and maybe that was the plan all along. Give him some exposure in A ball before sending him back to MV for the start of their season. Time will tell.
Bobby Bradley - He is hot now. I could easily see people pushing for him to be promoted. However, compare his numbers at AAA last year and this year. It looks like he is hitting for a little more average and power but his walk rate has dropped. I don't think that his numbers are sustainable at AAA, let alone in the majors.
Nolan Jones - His walk rate is EXTREMELY high but his power is non-existent. In fact, his High A numbers are almost identical to what they were last year at Lynchburg, except last year he showed more power. The extreme walk rate is interesting as is the higher batting average. I just don't know about the power completely disappearing,
Oscar Mercado - The thing about this guy is that he is stuffing the stat sheet every night. He looks like he is close to being ready for a promotion.
Oscar Gonzalez - Showing extremely high batting average and some power but, at this point, he hasn't walked even a single time this year. I just don't see the extremely low walk rate being sustainable.
James Karinchak - I saw him pitch a couple of times in spring training and what he is doing now is not unexpected based on the stuff I saw when he pitched this spring. He could come to the majors fast and stay for a long time.
Nick Sandlin - Here is a guy who will go from extended spring training to the majors by the end of the season. The key for me is that it appears now that he has shaken off almost all the rust and is ready to explode on the major league scene.
Zac Plesac - Another guy who is coming fast he could easily be the next Shane Bieber.
Kyle Nelson - For me he could be Vinnie Pestano Part Deux. I like his stuff and he hasn't been phased by the competitive level so far.
Eli Morgan - More of a gimmick guy to me, he will have to dominate at AA before I think he has a true shot. I think he can do that be the lack of that killer ML pitch is, for me, an issue.
Tyler Freeman - He looks solid to me. He has more doubles than Ks and more walks than Ks. He is shaky in the field but he definitely can handle the bat.
Will Benson - It's hard to tell what to make of him, being that he is repeating low A and most good players don't have to do that. Still, his numbers are up across the board from last year so the hope is that the light bulb has lit up and he will be on the steep part of his learning curve. Time will tell, though.
Luis Ovedo - Up and down this year. We will see how he holds up to a long season.
Bo Naylor - Really too early to tell but I remember Connor Capel, in the same position in terms of age, league and prospect status, struggling to stay above the Mendoza line for a good part of his season in LC. Have patience with Naylor but given the possible whiffs the scouting department had with Quentin Holmes and maybe Benson, Naylor's early struggles are surprising. Maybe he should be in Mahoning Valley and maybe that was the plan all along. Give him some exposure in A ball before sending him back to MV for the start of their season. Time will tell.
Sunday, May 5, 2019
Bumpy ride with no sure ending
Well, this is going to be an interesting season.
On one hand, the Indians could continue not to hit, their pitching could continue to lose pitcher after pitcher and they could finish below .500
On the other hand, Ramirez could hit like the Ramirez of old, Lindor could find his stroke, Santana could continue to be consistently productive, Kipnis could start hitting like he did the second half of last year, Gonzalez could hit at an above replacement level, Mercado could come up from the minors and provide a needed spark in the OF and Naquin and Luplow could form the tandem we thought they might. Plus Zimmer could come back and provide a spark.
On that same other hand, Clevinger and Kluber could come back earlier than expected, the patched up rotation could hold up well enough to keep us near the top of the division for a while and the bullpen could get better with Oliver Perez hitting his stride, with Salazar coming back strong as a long reliever/setup guy and with Sandlin and Karinchak coming up from the minors to replace the weaker members of the pen and provide some shutdown setup men even better than Bryan Shaw in his prime.
A 162 game ML season is a grind and a marathon. No one knows what will happen. So many different paths things could take depending on what is going on around them.
Wouldn't it be amazing if, with all this angst and all the difficulties, this is the year all the stars line up and we win the World Series! And wouldn't it be great if CarGo got the hit that wins the Series giving Karinchak the win!
On one hand, the Indians could continue not to hit, their pitching could continue to lose pitcher after pitcher and they could finish below .500
On the other hand, Ramirez could hit like the Ramirez of old, Lindor could find his stroke, Santana could continue to be consistently productive, Kipnis could start hitting like he did the second half of last year, Gonzalez could hit at an above replacement level, Mercado could come up from the minors and provide a needed spark in the OF and Naquin and Luplow could form the tandem we thought they might. Plus Zimmer could come back and provide a spark.
On that same other hand, Clevinger and Kluber could come back earlier than expected, the patched up rotation could hold up well enough to keep us near the top of the division for a while and the bullpen could get better with Oliver Perez hitting his stride, with Salazar coming back strong as a long reliever/setup guy and with Sandlin and Karinchak coming up from the minors to replace the weaker members of the pen and provide some shutdown setup men even better than Bryan Shaw in his prime.
A 162 game ML season is a grind and a marathon. No one knows what will happen. So many different paths things could take depending on what is going on around them.
Wouldn't it be amazing if, with all this angst and all the difficulties, this is the year all the stars line up and we win the World Series! And wouldn't it be great if CarGo got the hit that wins the Series giving Karinchak the win!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)