As the season ends it is time to give my two cents as to who the top Indians prospects are. For the first time I can remember this is a really hard assignment. There is no prospect that I think, at this point, is without significant question marks, including consensus top overall prospect Nolan Jones. Still, it's time to make my best guesses and let the prospects end up where they may.
1. Nolan Jones - Clearly he shows flashes but is not a finished product at all. I would like to see him get to the majors by mid-2020 but it is more likely, unless things change, for him to get here for a cup of coffee in 2021.
2. Tyler Freeman - Here is a guy without significant upside as players are constructed in the majors today. That is, he shows little power. Still, he is the best hitter for average in the system and, frankly, it isn't even close. Plus he is a middle infielder. He has lots of double power now and hopefully that will turn into HR power as he matures.
3. George Valera - I have seen this guy several times in MV games this year and he has incredibly easy power. It is really hard to put so green of a prospect this high in a ranking but this guy is special, in my opinion. Without jinxing him here is a guy who is on the same development path and potential that Matt Whitney was when he suffered that catastrophic injury. Whitney was on a path to be one the top, if not THE top prospect in the game and I think Valera could get there in a few years
4. James Karinchak - This guy is just filthy. His K/ip numbers are sick. He has work to do on his command but when the Indian ML catchers get to know him and if he gets the command that he should have, this guy could be an incredible and durable late inning reliever. It could happen as early as the start of 2020 and I think the Indians will give him that chance.
5. Triston McKenzie - Missed the whole 2019 season and has an injury history so it is really a stretch to even having him this highly ranked. But we all hold out hope he will quickly get back to his 2018 form.
6. Daniel Johnson - Pretty much a present value placement by me. He has good skills but they may or may not be more than 4th outfielder skills the way hitters are constructed in the major leagues these days. Still, I like him as much as I do Naquin and Luplow and more than I like Greg Allen so that's why he is here.
7. Bobby Bradley - The fact that the Indians sent him home after the minor league season is interesting. I think the Indians have him much lower ranked than I do and I doubt he makes their top 10. This is especially interesting as Bradley in the next Jesus Aguilar and Yandy Diaz and look how giving up on those prospects has worked for the Tribe! Bradley, in my opinion, needs to put his head down and just work. He had a bad ML debut and seemed to take that with him to the minors after his demotion. Long term the Indians need him so both he and the Indians better count on him and all involved need to work to get him to the majors and to the point where he can consistently show his power and plate discipline to be an above-average ML player.
8. Daniel Espino - He is guy with a big arm who could move quickly if he becomes a reliever. However, I think he will be developed as a starter and, like Juan Hillman, may struggle a little to find his footing. Plus I think he will be pushed to Lake County next year which may actually SLOW his development if he scuffles against more advanced hitters.
9. Scott Moss - As a lefty, here's another Cleveland pitcher like Beiber and Civale who may overachieve in the majors
10. Logan Allen - More upside than Moss but much more work to be done as his struggles in Columbus show. Like Moss, he has the potential to really help the Tribe in 2020 if everything smooths out for him.
11. Bo Naylor - Great season by a young guy playing up at Lake County. But the low BA still concerns me. The triple double of 2B/3B and HR is exciting, though.
12. Ethan Hankins - Most others will have him higher than this but he hasn't shown performance yet. 2020 will be an important year for him as, likely, he will spend the whole season at Lake County. If he starts in extended spring training or struggles at Lake County then he will be in the grind for a while. If he thrives at LC and earns a promotion to Lynchburg, he may be on the past track, shooting up to the top 3 Indians prospects by next fall.
13. Ka'ai Tom - An unlikely guy on this list, he just hit and hit and hit and hit with some power and, did I mention, hit at AA and AAA. He could get some PT in the majors in 2020, especially if we sign no outfielders (likely).
14. Ernie Clement - The Indians love this guy and he has done nothing in the minors this year to change that. His placement on the AZL roster shows he has good status with the ML team.
15. Kyle Nelson - A lefty reliever with filthy stuff, Nelson could easily play in the majors in 2020.
16. Bryan Lavastida - This guy is a catcher who rakes and projects to get better at all phases of the game, pretty dramatically, in 2020. He is a guy to keep an eye on.
17. Nick Sandlin - He would be up closer to Karinchak but his injury makes it questionable if he can even get to the majors in 2020 and if he requires surgery, it may not be until 2021, at best.
18. Luis Oviedo - Talk about a guy in the grind. Oviedo had the prototypical hot/cold season which, to me, means that he is just slowly learning his craft against older competition. Nothing to worry about but nothing to write home about, either.
19. Oscar Gonzalez - A guy with potential but a long way off unless something changes
20. Robert Broom - A college reliever with sick numbers in the Indians' minor league system. Go figure!?!?!
21. Adam Scott - Another college starter who came on this season. For these guys AAA seems to be the great separator. We will see what he does next year.
22. Sam Hentges - Recorded the worst year of Indians' minor league pitcher this year. He is in the grind. Hentges is my surprise prospect for 2020 and all the Indians have to do with him to make it happen is one thing: Move him to the bullpen. If they do that and he stays healthy and keeps his head on straight, he will be in Cleveland by the middle of July 2020 and could be here from then on if he doesn't get overwhelmed early. He and Karinchak could make a great 1-2 punch as setup men or form a 3-headed monster at closer with Brad Hand.
23. Juan Hillman - In the grind. I don't know if he will ever make it but at least he is still moving up levels. If he can start 2020 in Akron and succeed there, he could be on a near-vertical trajectory.
24. Joe Naranjo - First 2019 hitter on this list. None of the 2019 hitter draftees impressed me but Naranjo at least had intriguing stats.
25. Will Benson - His LC year is beginning to look like a veteran of the league loading up against greener prospects. 2020 is a big year for him. We are all waiting for him to break out.
26. Brayan Rocchio - Did not show the same flash as in 2018. Just looks like another decent prospect now. A move up to Lake County in 2020 and a full season at LC will tell us more.
27. Aaron Bracho - I will give him this year as he missed all of last year but, like Rocchio, he has a lot to prove in 2020.
28. Jose Fermin
29. Marcos Gonzalez
30. Gabriel Rodriguez
31. Junior Sanquintin
32. Mark Mathias
33. Yu Chang
34. Raynel Delgado
35. Yordys Valdes
35. Victor Nova
36. Eric Haase
37. Jonathon Rodrigez
38. Christian Cairo
38. Aaron PInto
39. Jean Carlos Mejia
40. Jean Mota
41. Steven Kwan
42, Dalbert Siri
43. Shao Ching Chiang
44. Cam Hill
45. Yainer Diaz
45. Richard Palacios
46. Lenny Torres
47. Carlos Vargas
48. Will Bartlett
49. Skyler Arias
50. Kirk McCarthy
Tuesday, October 8, 2019
Monday, October 7, 2019
Quick non-baseball thoughts
I honestly think Ohio State's football coaching staff is better this year, overall, than in any year under Urban Meyer. They may not get to the final 4 if they have a hiccup along the way but I think they are better prepared and react better to in-game situations/trends than in the past. If that latter thing was a point of emphasis this year, well, consider it improved dramatically...so far.
When I was a little younger the expression was "Well that is (fill in time spent) I will never get back". It usually applied to situations that turned out not to be satisfying and, as the impression implies, were a total waste of time. That is what I said after watching the Browns game tonight. Total waste of time and, worse, players looking like they (a) were totally confused and frustrated that things were going so badly, (b) totally mad that Baker Mayfield couldn't make the plays necessary to get them back in the game, (c) as the game wore on, totally looking like they were going through the motions trying not to get hurt so the they could continue getting a paycheck and, finally (d) Fred Kitchens looking forlorn and dazed on the sidelines, telling me that he has totally lost control of this team and that he is probably in over his head as a head coach of THIS team at THIS point in his experience as a coach. The comical thing: That is the way I remember Belichik looking when he coached the Browns. Wouldn't that be hilarious....
College football recruiting and the subsequent transfer portal are interesting to study. What your recruiting class in any given year looks like on October of the year of a kid's high school senior year and what that recruiting class looks like after the December early signing period and after the transfer portal shuffle over the following two years is amazing. When talent evaluators have to wait until the summer after that player's sophomore year to evaluate the recruiting class from two years prior AND NONE OF IT HAS TO DO WITH PERFORMANCE BUT, RATHER, ON PERSONNEL SHUFFLING speaks volumes. Ah, for the old days of no early commitments and no transfer portal when your recruiting class could be judged early and only changed due to injuries or overachieving. Those were the days.
When I was a little younger the expression was "Well that is (fill in time spent) I will never get back". It usually applied to situations that turned out not to be satisfying and, as the impression implies, were a total waste of time. That is what I said after watching the Browns game tonight. Total waste of time and, worse, players looking like they (a) were totally confused and frustrated that things were going so badly, (b) totally mad that Baker Mayfield couldn't make the plays necessary to get them back in the game, (c) as the game wore on, totally looking like they were going through the motions trying not to get hurt so the they could continue getting a paycheck and, finally (d) Fred Kitchens looking forlorn and dazed on the sidelines, telling me that he has totally lost control of this team and that he is probably in over his head as a head coach of THIS team at THIS point in his experience as a coach. The comical thing: That is the way I remember Belichik looking when he coached the Browns. Wouldn't that be hilarious....
College football recruiting and the subsequent transfer portal are interesting to study. What your recruiting class in any given year looks like on October of the year of a kid's high school senior year and what that recruiting class looks like after the December early signing period and after the transfer portal shuffle over the following two years is amazing. When talent evaluators have to wait until the summer after that player's sophomore year to evaluate the recruiting class from two years prior AND NONE OF IT HAS TO DO WITH PERFORMANCE BUT, RATHER, ON PERSONNEL SHUFFLING speaks volumes. Ah, for the old days of no early commitments and no transfer portal when your recruiting class could be judged early and only changed due to injuries or overachieving. Those were the days.
Of Yandy Diaz, Gio Urshela,Asdrubal Cabrera, the Indians FO/Management team and Francisco Lindor
As I saw Yandy Diaz blast his two HRs in the wildcard game I thought to myself "Wow, baby, here it comes". The "it" is of course the internet reaction to letting Yandy and Gio go.
As a person who has blogged repeatedly over the years about the bonehead moves the Indians have and have not made, let me weigh in on this one and other things.
Yandy - Let's get this out there once and for all: the Indians failed with Yandy Diaz. That being said, other teams have failed with other players. It sometimes take being traded to get the player to wake up and smell the coffee. It also sometimes takes a change of scenery and a different person saying EXACTLY the same thing in a slightly different way for a player to respond.
So Yandy is likely to become the Yandy we all wished he would have become here. Unfortunately for the Rays he will do it at first base or, more likely, at DH.
Still, just like Jesus Aguilar, if they would have stuck with Yandy a little more and given him more extended playing time, he could have, in an average world, ended up like he is today.
I was really pissed about them letting Aguilar go for nothing. That was a boneheaded move, IMHO, and they paid a lot more for Encarnacion. Paying for Encarnacion is not the issue as all good, playoff-likely teams pay for players instead of gambling on internal options. It is that we are the Cleveland Indians and when you play in the AL Central maybe you gamble on internal options. Maybe one. Not an entire outfield but maybe one.
So the story of Yandy and Jesus is done. Water under the bridge. Lesson learned. Right?
Well, there is a guy at AAA, Bobby Bradley, that is on the road to become the next Yandy and Jesus if the Indians don't get their heads out of their butts.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. What happens if you get fooled 3 imtes?
One last point on this. The Indians gave Jake Bauers extended playing time this year after his failed second half with Tampa last year. And he failed again. So what did the Indians do? They had a long exit interview with him essentially telling BAUERS to get his head out of butt. Now ain't that the pot calling the kettle black?!?!
Urshela is another story. Again, the Indians gave this guy playing time and he didn't hit. He was a great fielder but he didn't hit. They could have groomed him as a utility infielder but, instead, we ended the year with Flaherty, Freeman and Valesquez on the team and Arroyo on the DH. I would have rather just kept Urshela. By all accounts he was a good clubhouse guy. But you know what he wasn't? He wasn't a AAAA veteran who would take what he was given and then ask "Can I have some more please?" Trust me, even without the hitting he has shown this year, I would have taken Urshela for his defense. But not the Indians. They let him go for nothing because they had other options (read: Erik Gonzalez) and then traded that other option away this past winter, leaving them with AAAA guys and an under-ready Yu Chang to fill in when needed.
You have to groom your own guys and give them a chance to flourish. If they don't you make them utility guys or keep working with them in the minors until they develop or leave as 6-year free agents.
Now on to Asdrubal Cabrera.. It takes two to tango and I don't know if he wanted to come back here this year. However, had he come here he would have only cost us a few dollars and, frankly, he might have been the difference we needed down the stretch, especially when Ramirez and then Kipnis went down with injuries. I asked for the Indians to get him and they didn't. He has certainly helped the Nationals, hasn't he...even against the Indians, if you remember.
Finally, our FO is rock solid. They Puig/Reyes/Allen/Moss deal was a classic. The management group gave the GM unreasonable requirements and the Indians stuck to those. Yeah, I didn't like losing Brantley and you can easily make the case that having him cost us the AL Central and the Wild Card. However, the Twins and Rays are both down 2-0. Would he have made any difference in the playoffs? I don't think so, especially as his signing may have impacted that result? Maybe, but I don't see Brantley moving the needle in the playoffs and given that we made it down to the last weekend before being eliminated, I think it was a gamble worth taking. I mean, even the Astros would only go for two years with Brantley and he sucked up that deal almost instantaneously so you know he didn't leave much, if any, money on the table. The Astros wanted him and I suspect they way outbid other teams for him to sign him early. They got their man who is clearly a help to a team with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. In hindsight, a team without Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco would not have benefitted so much from Brantley and had he been here, we still don't make it to the WS, and maybe not to the AL championship series.
So, the management team IS to blame for being cheap. But I don't know if their cheapness is Major League cheapness. I think it is more fiscal responsibility.
One last thought: Now that we are talking about cheap management, let's talk about Lindor. Right now the Indians should lock him up with a Mike Trout-level contract. I mean right now. He is a once in a lifetime ballplayer. I live in St. Louis and I can tell you that having HOF players and great current players bring in fans. That is part of tradition. The Indians drew fans in the 90s as much because of the fans getting to see star players as they did because of the winning. The Cardinals do this all the time. I am telling you as I have said for a long time now, you cannot beat the bronze statues outside of Busch Stadium. To say that statuses bring fans to the game is really crazy. But it is the tradition and those statues represent tradition. Lindor is the latest tradition for the Indians. If he will sign here then sign him NOW. One warning for Indians fans, however. It may just be that the size of the contract that would be necessary to keep Lindor in Cleveland might be EXACTLY what causes him not to sign here. He would have to see that a $25-30 million a year contract would seriously hamstring the Indians from bringing in other veteran pieces, or keeping current stars, thus making our long-term competitiveness in question. Mike Trout is facing the same thing in LA and don't think that Lindor doesn't see that. He may just decide that he wants to play in NY or in LA where he can make his money AND have a realistic chance to be on a perennial winning team as there will be dollars for other guys. But you make him the 10 year contract offer. And you do it now AND you do it in addition to the current payroll. You don't have to spend more money and can even cut the budget for the rest of the team a little to make up for the large contract for Lindor. But you sign Lindor now. THAT will bring fans to the park.
As a person who has blogged repeatedly over the years about the bonehead moves the Indians have and have not made, let me weigh in on this one and other things.
Yandy - Let's get this out there once and for all: the Indians failed with Yandy Diaz. That being said, other teams have failed with other players. It sometimes take being traded to get the player to wake up and smell the coffee. It also sometimes takes a change of scenery and a different person saying EXACTLY the same thing in a slightly different way for a player to respond.
So Yandy is likely to become the Yandy we all wished he would have become here. Unfortunately for the Rays he will do it at first base or, more likely, at DH.
Still, just like Jesus Aguilar, if they would have stuck with Yandy a little more and given him more extended playing time, he could have, in an average world, ended up like he is today.
I was really pissed about them letting Aguilar go for nothing. That was a boneheaded move, IMHO, and they paid a lot more for Encarnacion. Paying for Encarnacion is not the issue as all good, playoff-likely teams pay for players instead of gambling on internal options. It is that we are the Cleveland Indians and when you play in the AL Central maybe you gamble on internal options. Maybe one. Not an entire outfield but maybe one.
So the story of Yandy and Jesus is done. Water under the bridge. Lesson learned. Right?
Well, there is a guy at AAA, Bobby Bradley, that is on the road to become the next Yandy and Jesus if the Indians don't get their heads out of their butts.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. What happens if you get fooled 3 imtes?
One last point on this. The Indians gave Jake Bauers extended playing time this year after his failed second half with Tampa last year. And he failed again. So what did the Indians do? They had a long exit interview with him essentially telling BAUERS to get his head out of butt. Now ain't that the pot calling the kettle black?!?!
Urshela is another story. Again, the Indians gave this guy playing time and he didn't hit. He was a great fielder but he didn't hit. They could have groomed him as a utility infielder but, instead, we ended the year with Flaherty, Freeman and Valesquez on the team and Arroyo on the DH. I would have rather just kept Urshela. By all accounts he was a good clubhouse guy. But you know what he wasn't? He wasn't a AAAA veteran who would take what he was given and then ask "Can I have some more please?" Trust me, even without the hitting he has shown this year, I would have taken Urshela for his defense. But not the Indians. They let him go for nothing because they had other options (read: Erik Gonzalez) and then traded that other option away this past winter, leaving them with AAAA guys and an under-ready Yu Chang to fill in when needed.
You have to groom your own guys and give them a chance to flourish. If they don't you make them utility guys or keep working with them in the minors until they develop or leave as 6-year free agents.
Now on to Asdrubal Cabrera.. It takes two to tango and I don't know if he wanted to come back here this year. However, had he come here he would have only cost us a few dollars and, frankly, he might have been the difference we needed down the stretch, especially when Ramirez and then Kipnis went down with injuries. I asked for the Indians to get him and they didn't. He has certainly helped the Nationals, hasn't he...even against the Indians, if you remember.
Finally, our FO is rock solid. They Puig/Reyes/Allen/Moss deal was a classic. The management group gave the GM unreasonable requirements and the Indians stuck to those. Yeah, I didn't like losing Brantley and you can easily make the case that having him cost us the AL Central and the Wild Card. However, the Twins and Rays are both down 2-0. Would he have made any difference in the playoffs? I don't think so, especially as his signing may have impacted that result? Maybe, but I don't see Brantley moving the needle in the playoffs and given that we made it down to the last weekend before being eliminated, I think it was a gamble worth taking. I mean, even the Astros would only go for two years with Brantley and he sucked up that deal almost instantaneously so you know he didn't leave much, if any, money on the table. The Astros wanted him and I suspect they way outbid other teams for him to sign him early. They got their man who is clearly a help to a team with Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke. In hindsight, a team without Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco would not have benefitted so much from Brantley and had he been here, we still don't make it to the WS, and maybe not to the AL championship series.
So, the management team IS to blame for being cheap. But I don't know if their cheapness is Major League cheapness. I think it is more fiscal responsibility.
One last thought: Now that we are talking about cheap management, let's talk about Lindor. Right now the Indians should lock him up with a Mike Trout-level contract. I mean right now. He is a once in a lifetime ballplayer. I live in St. Louis and I can tell you that having HOF players and great current players bring in fans. That is part of tradition. The Indians drew fans in the 90s as much because of the fans getting to see star players as they did because of the winning. The Cardinals do this all the time. I am telling you as I have said for a long time now, you cannot beat the bronze statues outside of Busch Stadium. To say that statuses bring fans to the game is really crazy. But it is the tradition and those statues represent tradition. Lindor is the latest tradition for the Indians. If he will sign here then sign him NOW. One warning for Indians fans, however. It may just be that the size of the contract that would be necessary to keep Lindor in Cleveland might be EXACTLY what causes him not to sign here. He would have to see that a $25-30 million a year contract would seriously hamstring the Indians from bringing in other veteran pieces, or keeping current stars, thus making our long-term competitiveness in question. Mike Trout is facing the same thing in LA and don't think that Lindor doesn't see that. He may just decide that he wants to play in NY or in LA where he can make his money AND have a realistic chance to be on a perennial winning team as there will be dollars for other guys. But you make him the 10 year contract offer. And you do it now AND you do it in addition to the current payroll. You don't have to spend more money and can even cut the budget for the rest of the team a little to make up for the large contract for Lindor. But you sign Lindor now. THAT will bring fans to the park.
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