Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Indians top 50 prospects

As the season ends it is time to give my two cents as to who the top Indians prospects are.  For the first time I can remember this is a really hard assignment.   There is no prospect that I think, at this point, is without significant question marks, including consensus top overall prospect Nolan Jones.   Still, it's time to make my best guesses and let the prospects end up where they may.

1. Nolan Jones - Clearly he shows flashes but is not a finished product at all.  I would like to see him get to the majors by mid-2020 but it is more likely, unless things change, for him to get here for a cup of coffee in 2021.

2. Tyler Freeman - Here is a guy without significant upside as players are constructed in the majors today.   That is, he shows little power.   Still, he is the best hitter for average in the system and, frankly, it isn't even close.   Plus he is a middle infielder.   He has lots of double power now and hopefully that will turn into HR power as he matures.

3. George Valera - I have seen this guy several times in MV games this year and he has incredibly easy power.   It is really hard to put so green of a prospect this high in a ranking but this guy is special, in my opinion.   Without jinxing him here is a guy who is on the same development path and potential that Matt Whitney was when he suffered that catastrophic injury.  Whitney was on a path to be one  the top, if not THE top prospect in the game and I think Valera could get there in a few years

4. James Karinchak - This guy is just filthy.   His K/ip numbers are sick.   He has work to do on his command but when the Indian ML catchers get to know him and if he gets the command that he should have, this guy could be an incredible and durable late inning reliever.  It could happen as early as the start of 2020 and I think the Indians will give him that chance.

5. Triston McKenzie - Missed the whole 2019 season and has an injury history so it is really a stretch to even having him this highly ranked.   But we all hold out hope he will quickly get back to his 2018 form.

6. Daniel Johnson - Pretty much a present value placement by me.   He has good skills but they may or may not be more than 4th outfielder skills the way hitters are constructed in the major leagues these days.  Still, I like him as much as I do Naquin and Luplow and more than I like Greg Allen so that's why he is here.

7. Bobby Bradley - The fact that the Indians sent him home after the minor league season is interesting.   I think the Indians have him much lower ranked than I do and I doubt he makes their top 10.   This is especially interesting as Bradley in the next Jesus Aguilar and Yandy Diaz and look how giving up on those prospects has worked for the Tribe!  Bradley, in my opinion, needs to put his head down and just work.   He had a bad ML debut and seemed to take that with him to the minors after his demotion.  Long term the Indians need him so both he and the Indians better count on him and all involved need to work to get him to the majors and to the point where he can consistently show his power and plate discipline to be an above-average ML player.

8. Daniel Espino - He is guy with a big arm who could move quickly if he becomes a reliever.   However, I think he will be developed as a starter and, like Juan Hillman, may struggle a little to find his footing.   Plus I think he will be pushed to Lake County next year which may actually SLOW his development if he scuffles against more advanced hitters.

9. Scott Moss - As a lefty, here's another Cleveland pitcher like Beiber and Civale who may overachieve in the majors

10. Logan Allen - More upside than Moss but much more work to be done as his struggles in Columbus show.  Like Moss, he has the potential to really help the Tribe in 2020 if everything smooths out for him.

11. Bo Naylor - Great season by a young guy playing up at Lake County.   But the low BA still concerns me.  The triple double of 2B/3B and HR is exciting, though.

12. Ethan Hankins - Most others will have him higher than this but he hasn't shown performance yet.   2020 will be an important year for him as, likely, he will spend the whole season at Lake County.  If he starts in extended spring training or struggles at Lake County then he will be in the grind for a while.  If he thrives at LC and earns a promotion to Lynchburg, he may be on the past track, shooting up to the top 3 Indians prospects by next fall.

13. Ka'ai Tom - An unlikely guy on this list, he just hit and hit and hit and hit with some power and, did I mention, hit at AA and AAA.   He could get some PT in the majors in 2020, especially if we sign no outfielders (likely).

14. Ernie Clement - The Indians love this guy and he has done nothing in the minors this year to change that.  His placement on the AZL roster shows he has good status with the ML team.

15. Kyle Nelson - A lefty reliever with filthy stuff, Nelson could easily play in the majors in 2020.

16. Bryan Lavastida - This guy is a catcher who rakes and projects to get better at all phases of the game, pretty dramatically, in 2020.  He is a guy to keep an eye on.

17. Nick Sandlin - He would be up closer to Karinchak but his injury makes it questionable if he can even get to the majors in 2020 and if he requires surgery, it may not be until 2021, at best.

18. Luis Oviedo - Talk about a guy in the grind.   Oviedo had the prototypical hot/cold season which, to me, means that he is just slowly learning his craft against older competition.   Nothing to worry about but nothing to write home about, either.

19. Oscar Gonzalez - A guy with potential but a long way off unless something changes

20. Robert Broom - A college reliever with sick numbers in the Indians' minor league system.  Go figure!?!?!

21. Adam Scott - Another college starter who came on this season.   For these guys AAA seems to be the great separator.   We will see what he does next year.

22. Sam Hentges - Recorded the worst year of Indians' minor league pitcher this year.   He is in the grind.  Hentges is my surprise prospect for 2020 and all the Indians have to do with him to make it happen is one thing: Move him to the bullpen.   If they do that and he stays healthy and keeps his head on straight, he will be in Cleveland by the middle of July 2020 and could be here from then on if he doesn't get overwhelmed early.   He and Karinchak could make a great 1-2 punch as setup men or form a 3-headed monster at closer with Brad Hand.  

23. Juan Hillman - In the grind. I don't know if he will ever make it but at least he is still moving up levels.   If he can start 2020 in Akron and succeed there, he could be on a near-vertical trajectory.

24. Joe Naranjo - First 2019 hitter on this list.  None of the 2019 hitter draftees impressed me but Naranjo at least had intriguing stats.

25. Will Benson - His LC year is beginning to look like a veteran of the league loading up against greener prospects.   2020 is a big year for him.   We are all waiting for him to break out.

26. Brayan Rocchio - Did not show the same flash as in 2018.  Just looks like another decent prospect now.  A move up to Lake County in 2020 and a full season at LC will tell us more.

27.  Aaron Bracho - I will give him this year as he missed all of last year but, like Rocchio, he has a lot to prove in 2020.

28. Jose Fermin

29. Marcos Gonzalez

30. Gabriel Rodriguez

31. Junior Sanquintin

32. Mark Mathias

33. Yu Chang

34. Raynel Delgado

35. Yordys Valdes

35. Victor Nova

36. Eric Haase

37. Jonathon Rodrigez

38. Christian Cairo

38. Aaron PInto

39. Jean Carlos Mejia

40. Jean Mota

41. Steven Kwan

42, Dalbert Siri

43. Shao Ching Chiang

44. Cam Hill

45. Yainer Diaz

45. Richard Palacios

46. Lenny Torres

47. Carlos Vargas

48. Will Bartlett

49. Skyler Arias

50. Kirk McCarthy

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