Tuesday, December 29, 2020

As predicted, the Lindor trade beat continues

 NOTE: Updated 12/31/2020

The headline from the website reads:

"Francisco Lindor trade setting up to be a let down"


As predicted here, the writers covering the Cleveland Indians are lining up to set expectations low for what the Indians can get for Lindor.  This after all of them are saying how it is inevitable that the Indians will be trading Lindor this winter.

For those of you who read my posts you know how this rankles me.  The inevitability of the trade is bad enough but to set expectations for a bad return is beyond belief.   The 'Hey, I am just telling it as it is' mantra is pathetic.

Look, we are fans of the Cleveland Indians.   We have, in the past, paid our hard earnied money to watch them play, either in person or by subscription to MLB and/or cable channels.  We have also plunked down money (or our friends and relatives have) to buy Indians clothing, further supporting this team.   Hey, just by reading the on-line papers or a blog like this one we are investing our time to support this team.

Now is time that people grow a pair in regards to the Indians.   It's time to picket the stadium and team, either in person or remotely.   The Indians' management doesn't get to settle for the best return they can get for Lindor.   Giving away assets for less than they are worth is not the way to run a successful business.  

Yeah, I have heard the real estate analogies about you house being worth what someone will pay for it and not what you think it is worth but, frankly, in most of those cases the value people get for their house is closer to what they think it will be the longer they are willing to wait to sell.  Lindor is the same way.   If you trade him for less than he is worth then you are weakening the long-term future competitiveness of this franchise.  

The perception of the Cleveland Indians by the national media is that they will give away Lindor for less than what he should fetch.   That position is even magnified by fans of other teams who propose pathetic, spit-in-your-face, intelligence-insulting packages of castoffs in order to get Lindor to their team using 'Yeah, I think, given how cheap the Indians are, we could get Lindor for this' logic.

So, let's assume that Lindor is going to be traded.  What do we need to make this trade acceptable?     

That's simple.

A young, controllable starting outfielder.  

One strong arm, controllable reliever

One top 10-15 pitching prospect (I say pitching because outfield prospects, which is what I really want, are the most problematic as far as development and you can't have enough pitching).

One Class A outfield prospect, somewhat but not to highly ranked, preferably with good plate discipline as that makes him more projectable to make the major leagues

An example of a trade that would work for me is:

Lindor to the Yankees for Clint Frazier (major league outfielder), Miguel Yajure (pitching prospect), Jonathan Loaisiga (major league, controllable reliever) and Canaan Smith (Class A outfield prospect)

None of these guys are crucial to the Yankees winning in 2021.   None of them represent the top Yankee prospects (as they only have Lindor for one year, ostensibly).    Frazier is better than anyone we have in the outfield (including Josh Naylor who has a greater chance to be a big disappointment than the major league centerpiece of the Mike Clevinger trade should be!).  Loaisiga has had ML success and Yajure, even though still a prospect, has even had a little success in the majors.   Smith has great plate discipline and is showing a little power at low A which may improve as he moves up the ladder and he clearly beefs up a weak minor league OF prospect core from the Indians.   

Not a great haul but a good one.   The point is that this is the BOTTOM of what we should get.   Anything less than this would be giving Lindor away.   So Dolan, Antonneti and Chernoff, you have your marching orders.   Don't make me break out my picket sign!

UPDATE: For Dodgers fans out that here is what I would expect from the Dodgers:  Caleb Ferguson (LH major league reliever with good splits so the 3-batter rule should not impact him greatly), DJ Peters (OF prospect, 2021 ETA), Omar Estevez (MIF prospect 2021 ETA), Edwin Uceta (RHP prospect, 2021 ETA)

 The Dodgers have an excess of young, controllable relievers so Ferguson would be expendable.   Peters, Estevez and Uceta are still in the minors but are close to the majors with all having 2021 ETAs.   None of them are top 10 Dodger prospects so the loss to their farm system would be minimal.    This would help us rebuild more quickly and the Dodgers getting Lindor can help them offset some of the gains the Padres have made this off-season and put them in a prime position to sign Lindor to an extension without him hitting the open market.

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