Thoughts for a Thursday

LOGAN ALLEN 

In spring training Logan Allen was quoted as saying:

“Force my way, kick the door down,” Allen said. “Let everybody know that that Logan Allen that was not throwing strikes, not throwing hard, inconsistent, kind of a fringe four-A player -- that's not me. I'm here to get outs in the big leagues, I'm here to help the Indians win and I think I've done a pretty good job of showing it up to this point."

When I read that at the time I thought to myself 'Here is a guy who is either really kicking down the door or here is a guy who has rabbit ears (and eyes) and follows the trolls on the internet too much".

Well, after 5 starts it seems like that trolls are winning.  When I saw him walk off the mound today I saw a guy who was talking to himself and not in a lost way or in a mad way like "I will never let that happen again" because, if he really did feel like that, he would have made a change somewhere in his last 3 starts.   At one point today he had allowed 6 HRs to the last 12 batters he faced, which makes him a great guy to have on the mound if you are in a HR derby competition, not a ML starting pitcher.    His body language when he walked off today APPEARED TO ME like someone who felt like the world was against him and he couldn't catch a break.   Not like someone kicking the door down.  The Indians talk about him controlling his emotions.  When I hear that and see him I see a guy with a chip on his shoulder who is not using that chip as motivation.

He needs to go down to the minors and he needs to work on his game.   At the same time, the Indians need to give someone else a chance.  If Allen TRULY wants to get better and TRULY is not a 4-A player like the trolls must be saying he is, then the Indians can develop him into a good starter.   The issue is, when he walked off the mound today I saw a guy who either did not have the stuff to be a major league starter or one who was deceiving himself that he was ready to be a major league starter.  

JOSH NAYLOR

I don't think that any of us thought that Josh Naylor was ever going to win a Golden Glove award.   That being said, the Indians thought they were getting a guy who was a potential outfielder who could hit for some power and have some plate discipline who, if he couldn't play the OF could be a good guy to play first base in a pinch.   I saw Brent Rooker, a middling prospect for Minnesota suited more for LF/1B and DH who has hardly, if ever, played in Progressive Field before this series, make a great sliding attempt to catch Ahmed Rosario's drive down the RF line.   Yeah, he didn't catch the ball that hit him in his glove but comparing that to the ridiculously bad effort Naylor made on Cruz's drive to the same corner in this series as well as a number of other gaffes and near miscues he has made in RF this year makes me realize even more that the guy should not be in our OF.   So we have a need at 1B so we put him there, right?   Well, that may work eventually.   He has made some nice plays there but had the one Buckner-esque error to cost us a game and then bobbled an underhand flip from the pitcher that a 9 year old could have caught.  These are the plays that a major league fielder MUST make.  Right now the Indians are better with Franmil Reyes in RF than Naylor, especially with Naylor's lack of power and lack of plate discipline which totally exposes Reyes in front of him as everyone knows Naylor can't impact the offense if they pitch around Reyes.  In fact, Reyes will hardly ever even let himself be pitched around so having no protection behind him increases the odds that he will not become the hitter he can be.

JAKE BAUERS

The guy has started to hit the ball so he will be able to continue renting locker space at Progressive Field for the next week or more, I guess.   But, again, looking at body language, it almost seems like Bauer is listening to the trolls as well and for some reason is thinking that his performance, or lack thereof, is somehow acceptable from a major leaguer.  What he has done in this series is only delaying the inevitable...and in a very detrimental way to the health of this team as he is giving the FO that stuck with him for no apparent reason coming out of ST more of a chance to say "Well, there may be something there afterall.   We just need to keep playing him to find out for sure."  So Bauers needs to bring out his best impersonation of Mike Hargrove which, to me, is his upside and actually start contributing to this team's offense because, if he thinks his performance this year is anything BUT what a 4A guy would put up, then he is deluding himself.    

Hey, we took 2 of 3 in this series, something we desperately needed.  Is today's loss a killer?  No.  But it does again expose the problems with this team.  Bobby Bradley may not be the next coming of Babe Ruth but I would rather see Bradly flail away for a month than see Bauers and even Naylor's empty at bats.  At least we got to see some of our young pitchers perform well this series so, while it is a shame to see Oliver Perez go (true professional in every way) at least it is for youth rather than some 4-A guy.

 

Let's talk the football draft for a second

 OK, this is a baseball blog.   I get it.   There are a whole bunch of bloggers smarter about the Cleveland Browns' draft then I am.   So to all of you, forgive me for stepping in to your lane. That being said, here we go.

Using Andrew Berry's premise, you draft NOT for right now need but for eventual need.   Basically, you have the luxury, when you are the Browns of 2021, of drafting the best player on the board, right?

Or....you could go a totally different direction.   I am on the bandwagon that the Browns have too many draft picks for the slots on their 2021 roster.  So what do we do?

In a nutshell here is what I would do, if it is doable:

Scenario 1: If Zaven Collins is already off the board:

1. Trade the #26 pick and our second 4th round pick (#132) to the Miami Dolphins for their picks (#36 and #50) - It gives the Dolphins 3 first round picks, all of which are eligible for the 5th year option and gets us two picks in the second round.   This, to me, gives us more in the way of long-term assets that Berry was talking about.

At this point the Browns would own picks #36, 50, 59, 89, 91, 110,  This is where I would end the Browns draft.

2. Trade our remaining draft picks we have (169, 211, 257) for fill-in veterans.   After the regular 4th round the draft gets very messy with all the compensatory picks. Plus, although I am no cap expert, it looks like doing this will also shrink our draft cap hit.   I don't know by how much but maybe it will help.   Again, I am not an NFL expert but I have to imagine that we could take on a salary or two and still be under our cap.

3. Trade Odell Beckham Jr. for whatever useful veterans you can get and then sign Nick Chubb to an extension using that money.

Scenario 2: Draft Zaven Collins at #26

1. Trade #132, 169, 211 and 257,  to the Eagles for their #84 pick, leaving us with 6 draft picks (Collins, #59, 84, 89, 91, 110).   

2. Trade Odell Beckham Jr. for whatever useful veterans you can get and then sign Nick Chubb to an extension

In both scenario #1 and #2 I try to re-sign Sheldon Richardson if I have cap space left.  In scenario #1 if I have the cap space Stephen Gilmore is one of the guys I target for those picks I want to trade.

OK, how about that for an uneducated foray into the Browns NFL draft.  No knowledge and some research but, essentially, throwing stuff against the wall and seeing if it will stick.

It's time to face the truth...and make some changes...now!

 I am getting tired of reading (and writing) about:

• How Dolan is cheap
• How the Indians trade away their ML hitters 
• How they don't bring in free agents who can hit

While all of those things may be true, it isn't the root of the Indians' hitting problems.  Not even close.

The root of the Indians' hitting problems is the lack of quality hitting coaches at the major league level.

Frankly, in my opinion, these guys suck and should be replaced.  

Let's look at our young hitters:

• Chang: .179 ML average before this year,  .188 this year
• Bauers: .201 in TB, .226 in Cleveland before this year: .180 this spring and ;129 this year
• Daniel Johnson: 1-12 last year, didn't get out of ST this year
• Bradley Zimmer: .241, .226, .162 and didn't make it out of ST this year.   Every spring he seems to have a new batting stance.
• Bobby Bradley: .178 last year and no improvement this year
• Josh Naylor: He has been here about a year and his power has totally disappeared as has his plate discipline.  

Plus now they have Nolan Jones under their control, and his prospect status keeps declining compared to prospects in other systems.  Plus he still can't hit lefties.

Finally, look at all our major league hitters.  None of the younger guys are making improvements or are even able to maintain their production from past years with other organizations.  

Who is the one hitter in the minors everyone is talking about: Owen Miller, who was trained by the Padres and who we haven't had a chance to mess up yet.

Compare that to Aaron Civale.   He worked with our ASSISTANT pitching coach, Ruben Niebla over the winter and remade his whole delivery.  Plus Brian Shaw has remade his whole delivery.   Obviously a lot of this was done before he came back to the Indians but the Indians have helped him maintain his recent success.  Plus, look at the stats for Karinchak, Maton, Wittgren (until this year), the work they are doing with the starting pitchers and the work with the minor league pitchers, especially the relievers and the emergence of Clase.

How many of those pitchers are not making any progress?  Close to zero.

How many are regressing?  Again, close to zero.

It is simply not possible that EVERY hitting prospect we have sucks and every young major league hitter we have is incapble of improving while almost every pitching prospect is improving and ML pitchers are, mostly, getting better, some at a startling rate.

While it may not be obvious to anyone else it is really obvious to me.    While the ownership has not helped us by not spending enough on hitting and the FO has hurt the hitting by showing an incapability to bring in good hitters while trading good pitching, the true reason that this team is losing is because the hitting coaches can't turn decent major league prospects into even mediocre ML hitters and can't help our experienced hitters avoid long slumps.

You can't fire all the players so you fire the coach or manager responsible for their failure.   Fire our hitting coaches and bring in someone good.

And, DFA Bauers and bring up Bradley.   I don't care that he is not hitting well at the alternate site.   That shouldn't matter.   Just like it didn't matter that he outhit Bauers in ST.    It is time for a change and it is time to give Bradley the bulk of the at bats for the rest of the season to see what we have.   

What do we really have here and can we make it better internally?

 Saturday's defeat was potentially devastating but as I went to bed Saturday night I thought back to last year and, although I can't remember when, I know we had one or more of the same type of devastating defeats.

Sunday brought Bieber being Bieber and the stop to a  losing streak.  

Taking 1 of 3 from Cincinnati was the minimum I expected which makes Saturday's defeat that much more crushing as we had our #5 against the presumptive ace of the Reds staff, albeit in his first start of the season still trying to shake off the rust.   But, still.   Saturday's win would have helped us immensely with most of our division struggling right now in one way or another.

But, after today's game, I find myself still asking the question: What is this team going to grow up to be this year and how can we, internally, make this the best version of itself?

I know this is going to sound like a broken record but here goes:

Starting rotation - Looking at the minors this is as good as it gets right now and Allen and McKenzie jockeying back and forth for who is #4 only helps.   If Zach Plesac is not hurt and just is suffering from a dead arm this rotation is good to go.

Bullpen - I see no cracks in this bullpen.   I would like to see Quantrill and Stephan stretched out more as well as seeing Quantrill used in the 7th/8th inning high leverage situations to spell Shaw and Karinchak but, for the most part, not only is this bullpen performing solidly, I don't see any real holes in it at the moment.  

Catcher - This is as advertised and is good at the top and passable (defensively) at the bottom

Infield - Besides Hernandez not hitting, I think we are set at 2nd, SS and 3rd.   First base is another question.   I would still like to see us get rid of Bauers and bring up Bradley.    Bauers can't hit in a hitting position on the field.   We need Bradley.   Chang (INF) and Naylor (1B, LF, RF) being the utility guys make perfect sense to me in a contending team.  Having Ahmed Rosario to play SS against tough lefties really helps

Outfield - Rosario in LF, Rosario in CF and a combination of Luplow and Naylor in RF looks good to me.  I still would like to see Bradley Zimmer up instead of Gamel because, like Gamel, he can play all 3 OF positons and there is a chance Zimmer can actually hit.

DH - Reyes 

On offense we are living by the HR.   Just like in the beginning of previous years, our situational hitting frustratingly sucks raw eggs.  If we can steal some bases and do better in situational hitting we should be OK.   I can't believe that what I saw in Arizona out of Hernandez was just a mirage.   That is the player he is and him getting back to that level is, to me, the key to his lineup, along with two other things: Bradley comes up and hits like he did in the spring and Chang building on his recent success and getting his power stroke back.   These two changes and natural improvement as the weather warms up, if our pitching holds up, could dramatically help the W-L percentage going forward.  We just need a spark to get our offense to catch fire.   I think that spark comes from Bradley and a resurgent Hernandez with Chang's continued improvement as the icing.

Hey, we are still in the meat of this meat grinder part of the schedule.   It could all go south in the next two weeks.   Or it could take off.   So far I don't see much evidence to say that the 2021 Indians look that much different, all things considered, from the 2020 Indians.    So far!

You're a freakin' major leaguer. Catch the freakin' ball!!!!!!!!!

 N/T

Rant for a Friday morning

 Rant 1 - The Yankees suck and they have too much money

Right or wrong, one of the first things I taught my daughter to say when she was little was "The Yankees suck and they have too much money."   Real story!

At NJ.com Mike Rosenstein wrote an article about the Yankees Rule 5 losses this winter.  Here's the link:

Ex-Yankees prospect struggling with Indians following Rule 5 Draft - nj.com

In the article he seems to relish that Trevor Stephan has given up 4 runs in 4 innings.   He also talks about how Garrett Whitlock has been uber-successful for the Red Sox and how Kyle Holder was not successful in the spring and was sent back to the Yankees.

Well here's to you Mike.  I think it is time for you to move out of your bedroom in your parents' basement decorated from floor to ceiling with Yankees memorabilia and get your own place.   In case you aren't aware, here are two truths:

• The Yankees suck and they have too much money, meaning they can buy their way out of shortfalls in their farm system and free agent mistakes and
• The Rule 5 draft and the 6-year minor league free agency thing were set up because teams like the Yankees would just buy up all the talent and let them languish in the farm system, essentially keeping other teams from getting their hands on good prospects.

Trevor Stephan is a Cleveland Indian BECAUSE the Yankees don't have enough room on their roster for guys like him because of free agency and signing veterans to large contracts.   Without a salary cap the Rule 5 is one of the few parity-creating rules in baseball other than draft ordering and bonus caps for draftees/international signings.   

But that doesn't matter to you, does it Mike?  You just want all the prospects for your bloated salary team because, well, they are the NY Yankees and they just deserve it, right?

BTW, if Phil Maton had done his job on Wednesday, Trevor Stephan would have been looking at 4 IP and 2 ER for a respectable 4.50 ERA.   Instead, Maton titrated in the two hitters Stephan left on base, the second on a bases-loaded HBP, before looking out at the bases and realizing the next guy who scored actually went on his (Maton's) ERA.   [NOTE: I know that wasn't really what Maton was thinking and I know he was trying hard but this is one my biggest pet peeves in baseball, inherited runners scored, especially when it happens to rookies like Stephan.]  What makes it even worse is that indiscretion by Maton brings out roaches from the floorboards like Rosenstein who then writes about Stephan sucking meaning that there is hope that the Yankees can get him back.    

Mike, using 'logic' that I know must resonate with you, why would the king-of-baseball Yankees even want Stephan back if he couldn't even stick with the sucky, low payroll Cleveland Indians?   

Rant 2 - What is the statute of limitations on changing an offiical scorer's decision

Sorry, readers (all 3 of you!) but for a while, every time Logan Allen pitches, I will bring this up (at least for a start or two more).   In his first start Allen allowed two runs that were deemed earned because a one-hopper to Amed Rosario at SS that hit him in the gut was ruled a base hit instead of an error.   I hate that Merrifield then hit a HR and Allen got charged with 2 ER instead of those runs being unearned.    

If there isn't a statute of limitations on changing official scorer decisions (I think there is and I think it is 24 hours) then if I was the Indians I would continue to bring this up to the powers that be.   Logan Allen should have ONE earned run allowed up to this point, not THREE.   Now that may all be moot if he gets bombed in his start tonight but, if he doesn't and continues to have success, small things like this may be the difference between winning ROY and not winning it (unless of course he is competing against a player who plays for a big market team which means Allen is screwed anyway).

Rant 3 - Jake Bauers and Ben Gamel are still on the ML roster

There is no text associated with this rant.

...and we split!

 Thoughts on today's game and the series:

1. Assuming that Plesac is not hurt and his outing is just a dead arm glitch (he was only hitting 90 mph on his fastball) our pitching looked good in this series.   This weekend, with Allen and McKenzie going back to back in the Ohio Cup series, we will know more about the back end of our rotation.

2. Regarding Allen, is there a statute of limitations on changes in official scorer's decisions?   ln Allen's first start Rosario muffed a two-out grounder right in front of Whit Merrifield's HR.   It was ruled a hit which made the runs earned.   If Gimenez's play in the 9th today was an error then Rosario's play in the game against KC was CLEARLY an error and Allen should be charged with two less earned runs.   Just sayin'.

3. This game showed, once again, that we don't need to score that many runs to win, given our pitching.   We just need to score some runs.   Which brings me to my Austin Hedges comment.   His sacrifice was really important and, given his inability to hit, I think we need to treat him like a pitcher and have him sacrifice in every situation with less than two outs and a runner on.   Yeah, it is demeaning to the guy as a hitter but he hits like a weak hitting pitcher so, there's that.

4. How many of us think Oscar Mercado or even Delino Deshields gets to both the first inning blooper by Moncada and the 9th inning blooper by Mercedes?   I know that thought crossed my mind today.   There are two ways not to make errors:  (a) be a good outfielder and (b) don't get to any balls.  I am OK with Rosario in CF but he will cost us runs.  BTW, I think Zimmer gets to Roberts' drive in the 9th.   Naylor looked terrible on that ball and it is not the first time he looked terrible in RF this season.  He is not adding a lot on offense so what, exactly, is he adding over Zimmer?  Naylor misplayed a couple of other balls in this series.   He is not a right fielder, sorry to say.   What will we do with him now as he is an intriguing prospect?   Send him to the alternate site and let him work on his defense and on his batting eye so he can take more walks?

5. Civale is tough.   I mean, after that first inning he was just nasty.   Was he Rodon nasty?  No, but he was nasty.   Can't wait to see what our minor league system does with continued work with Hentges, Moss, Eli Morgan, Joey Cantillo and others.

6. Bauers got two hits today.  (I won't mention his two Ks, one with two runners in scoring position).

7.  Talk about Chang-like feast or famine.   Gimenez has a double, drives in a crucial run with a groundout and then lets that popup drop and muffs the groundball in the 9th.  Similar to Chang's evening on Monday.

8.  What the heck happened on Reyes' drive?  Did he hit it with topspin?   The Indians have had a number balls they hit this year that we all thought were gone and they died on the warning track.    Whereas when the other team hits the ball it seems to carry better.   I don't get it.

9. I still love Gimenez at SS and at the plate.   Although the results aren't always there when he is hitting, he just looks the part of, someday soon, becoming a really good hitter.

10. On to Cincinnati for the Ohio Cup this weekend!  As always, it is a fun series.

11. Final Note: Splitting the series against the White Sox this early in the year IS huge.  I am very happy to get out of town with that split. 

I think we need more hitting

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Thoughts for a Wednesday morning

 BIEBER

You know what really sucks?  When Bieber pitches it is really hard to tell whether the lineup is a bad one or a good one.   People tell me that the White Sox lineup is very good and all evidence supports that.   But, man, he just dealt last night and it was a thing to behold.   

One thing that was pointed out last night, but we all knew, is how good Perez is and how much the pitchers value pitching to him and how much he adds to their abilities.   But he has to have a day off some time, right?    I can only imagine the pitchers counting days and wondering if they will be pitching the day game after a night game where Hedges will likely be the catcher (like tomorrow's day game where Civale goes).  The question becomes that then we play the Reds where we have a night game, a day game and another day game.   Bieber is scheduled to go on Sunday.   How will the catching be set up so that Perez catches on Sunday.   Will Hedges catch McKenzie on Saturday, playing two games in 3 days?  It will all be interesting to find out but one thing is for sure.   We should set up that Perez catches Bieber, Plesac and Civale and then let Hedges catch one of Allen or McKenzie, whichever comes up to give Perez the appropriate number of days off.  This thought process may all be moot if his bashed finger from last night means he will miss some time.

Bieber's pitch count scared me.   I think large pitch counts impact the likelihood that pitchers will get injured or, at least, have their effectiveness later in the season impacted.  Is one game worth a season lost?  No way.

THE ZERO TWINS

Gamel and Bauers.   Bauers and Gamel.  Add in Hedges and we have the three hitless wonders.    In this time of COVID deaths and all the ethnic hatred it is really hard to hate on these guys.  But, man, they suck offensively.  I find myself rooting against them (especially Gamel and Bauers) just so that management has no choice but to read the writing on the wall and dump them.   But I hate myself, with death all around us, for rooting against them.   It is a conundrum but these guys do, in fact, suck.  I can even hear it in the announcers voices.   Do you think it is possible that the negative energy many of us are throwing on Bauers and Gamel can really impact their performance?   I have to wonder because except for their close relatives, I don't know of one person who still wants these 2 guys on the team and most want them gone today.   Can these bad vibes really be what is making these guys bad?

YU CHANG   

Regarding the Yu Chang hating.   First, RIDICULOUS.   On further thought...RIDICULOUS.   Looking at it from a purely baseball sense, we all realize that the reason he hit Grandal in the helmet is because (a) Gimenez hadn't gotten to the bag yet to set the target and (b) Grandal conveniently swurved outside the baseline as if to hit second making the turn for 3rd with Chang, not seeing the target, did what most infielders in his position would have done, throw to the outside of the bag.   So the 'error' came with multiple extenuating circumstances.   Should he have just taken the out at first?  Hindsight says yes but in the flow of the game, depending on how fast Williams is, maybe not. 

BASEBALL RULE CHANGES

Talking about baseball rules, MLB is trying out some new rules in the minors this season.   All have some level of merit...except for the two most recently proposed ones.  Let's look at the two latest proposals.

1. Move the pitching rubber back a foot: Designed to make it easier on the hitters because in the last 10 years the average fastball has increased by 1.7 MPH and they feel this change would drop the effective speed of the fastball back to 2010 levels.  I vote no on this one before it is tried.  Lowering the mound, deadening the baseball, when is it going to end?  Plus HRs are on the upswing.   And we are going to make it easier on hitters?  Do we want to turn this into slow-pitch softball?  Plus we would be favoring junk ball pitchers who depend on deception over power pitchers.   Who would you, as a fan, a guy flaming 100 mph fastballs or a guy getting hitters out with changeups or knuckleballs?   Taking the fastball away from pitchers by moving the rubber back is just stupid.

2. The double-hook designated hitter rule.   Your DH is only in the game as long as your starting pitcher stays in the game. The goal is to encourage teams to leave their starting pitchers in longer.   There are so many problems with this proposed rule I don't know where to start.   Where do you bat your DH as you might run into a scenario where your relief pitchers could be hitting cleanup for you?    Does this change who you want to DH as that player could be lost to you for the game if your pitcher gets knocked out early?  This proposed rule makes a mockery out of the DH and should never have made it out of the concept review in which it was first proposed.

Thoughts for a Sunday

 There is a story, maybe qualifying as an urban legend, that says that, back in the day, Indiana's not so good (at the time) football team came into Ohio Stadium to play the Buckeyes.   Indiana proceeded to take the first drive down the field for a touchdown, giving them a 7-0 lead.  The legend goes that, during the TV timeout, Indiana took a team picture with the scoreboard in the backdrop showing the score.   I think they lost like 49-7 but, for that instant, the scoreboard showed they were ahead.  

Now, I don't know if that is a true story but one school of thought says that we should all take our cameras right now and take a picture of the AL Central standings.   Why?  Because the Indians are in first place AND they are beginning a stretch against 18 teams that are either in first place right now or are teams that the prognosticators say have a great chance of making the playoffs.   The next stretch against the White Sox, Reds, Twins and Yankees will give us a better, albeit not complete, picture of where the Indians will be this season.

But, for right now, we are in first place after the Twins and White Sox blew their games today.   

But so much for scoreboard watching.   Everyone can put away their camera phones now, not to be taking pictures of the AL Central standings again until at least May 3rd.

So what about this weekend and the state of the Indians?  Here are my thoughts:

1. The starting pitching looks rock solid.   Although Logan Allen scuffles he has good results.   We will find out more about Triston McKenzie tomorrow against the White Sox but he can be electric if he just controls that electric fastball.

2. The bullpen looks good enough.  I don't see one guy I can say is a weak link right now.   Trevor Stephan scuffled yesterday in the 9th but, remember, he is the 26th player on the team and will be used to do mopup innings so his growing pains should not be THAT problematic.   Everyone makes it interesting, including our 3 backend guys.  But we appear to be in bend-but-not-break mode.

3. The lineup...ah, the lineup.   There is a likelihood that this team will be among the league leaders (in a bad way) of team LOB this year.   But they are showing signs that they will hit some with runners in scoring position AND produce some power, enough to score sufficient runs to give the pitchers enough to work with.  

The lineup with Rosario in CF and Luplow in RF  and Change at 1B against LHP looks solid.   That lineup does not contain Bauers, Gamel or Hedges.  That lineup scored 11 runs on Saturday.   The lineup on Sunday included Jake Bauers (but not Ben Gamel) but the Gamel-Bauer duo is still 1-2021 (not ABs, the year, at least for right now) but the players not named Bauer and Hedges hit the ball well and in the clutch, enough to give us a 5-2 win without the need for a HR.   That doesn't even count about 6 balls they hit right on the nose but right at infielders and outfielders, including one inning where they hit 3 line drives to Detroit's outfielders.   

The lineup looks solid enough to  win.

But, being a tinkering kind of guy, here are some thoughts:

1. Bring Bradley up now and send down Naylor.   Put Luplow in RF all the time and make Bauers a backup OFer.  I would like to see us add Bradley's bat to the lineup, Naylor can come back up once we make a decision about Bauers and Bradley gets to start at 1B, adding some power and not really doing much negatively.   Naylor might also come back up if we tire of Gamel.   Bottom line is that it should be Bradley time and this stretch would be a good time to see what he has.  If he struggles, we send him back down and run the Bauers experiment to completion.  

2. Let's use the bullpen more.   Yeah, it would be nice to see our starters go 7 innings every game but I am for them going 6 and allowing the bullpen to cover the last 3 innings.    Also, I think we limit McKenzie to 4 inning starts (much like an opener) and piggyback Quantrill for 2-3 innings.    If we need to eat innings in a blowout loss (or win) we give those innings to Stephan and don't waste any of our other relievers in those situations unless we absolutely have to.  I think this helps save those starters for later in the year and the hitting seems to be coming around enough to allow for a LITTLE run scoring against the bullpen.  

3. As far as the batting order, I like what Tito is doing (I like it because I proposed something like it).  The alternating L-R thing looks good although I am surprised that Gimenez was hitting leadoff instead of second.   All I can figure is that Tito sees Hernandez putting too much pressure on himself as a leadoff hitter and wants to give the kid a chance at the top of the order and let Hernandez relax.  Seems to have worked the last couple of days so let's let me maestro wave his baton. If Bradley comes up he slides into Naylor's position in the order to offer a little protection to Reyes (more than Naylor has been providing, at least).

All-in-all, we should be 6-2 at this point but 5-3 is not terrible.   Now, let's hope the next 18 games show that this team still has another gear it can shift into as it starts playing against the big boys.  

Thoughts for a Wednesday night

Today's Game

 These Indians look A LOT like last year's Indians.  That's a good thing, actually.  This weekend will tell more but they may actually have a chance if they can somehow manufacture enough timely hitting.   With the holes in the lineup (Bauers, Hedges, Gamel), the questionable hitters who may be OK over a full season (Gimenez, Naylor) they may still have enough punch to score some runs when Hernandez and Reyes start hitting, assuming Rosario and Jose Ramirez have typical years for them and Roberto Perez stays healthy and reverts to his 2019 form.  

Minor Trades, DFA pickups/losses, Non-tenders, Rule 5 losses

I just don't get it.   I really don't.   Seeing Naquin's 4 HRs and .316 BA so far I thought I would look at who we lost in these minor transactions.   Some of the guys below have 'made it', some are fringe major leaguers, but all have played in the majors. 

C - Eric Haase (cash)

1B - Jesus Aguilar (DFA)

2B - Joey Wendle (Brandon Moss)

SS - Mark Mathias (Andres Melendez)

3B - Gio Urshela (DFA)

LF - Yandy Diaz (Jake Bauers)

CF - Tyler Naquin (Non-tendered)

RF - Anthony Santander (Rule 5)

DH - Ka'ai Tom (Rule 5)

Relief pitcher - Luis Oviedo (Rule 5)

Closer - Julian Merryweather (Josh Donaldson)

How is it that all we got back from these guys were rentals of Moss and Donaldson and  then Bauers and Melendez?  Plus, how is it possible that Aguilar, Wendle, Urshela, Diaz, Santander and, now, Naquin are doing so well once they leave Cleveland?   Shades of Brandon Phillips!  Is it possible that this organization, that is so great at developing pitches is so pathetic at developing hitters that guys only flourish when they LEAVE Cleveland?

Not saying that the lineup above is better than what Cleveland is fielding now but I will say it is closer than it should be.

Makeup of current 40-man roster

Seeing the list above I wanted to see what we have done in these kinds of moves to build our roster.   So let's look at our current 40 man roster:

Draft/International signing - Bieber, Civale, Hentges, Hill, Karinchak, McKenzie, Mejia, Morgan, Nelson, Plesac, Vargas, Roberto Perez, Bradley, Chang, Clement, Jones, J. Ramirez, Zimmer

Large trades:  Logan Allen (Bauer), Clase (Kluber), Moss (Bauer), Quantrill (Clevinger), Hedges (Clevinger), Arias (Clevinger), Gimenez (Lindor/Carrasco), A. Rosario (Lindor/Carrasco), Naylor (Clevinger), Reyes (Bauer).

Free agents: O. Perez, B. Shaw, Hernandez, E. Rosario, Gamel

Minor deals : Daniel Johnson (Gomes), Harold Ramirez (cash), Oscar Mercado (Jhon Torres (Cards #19 prospect), Conner Capel (Cards minor league prospect)), Jordan Luplow (Erik Gonzalez), Wittgren (Jordan Milbrath), Stephan (Rule 5), Maton (cash), Bauers (Y. Diaz)

Compare that to the list above:

Eric Haase (cash), Jesus Aguilar (DFA), Joey Wendle (Brandon Moss), Mark Mathias (Andres Melendez), Gio Urshela (DFA), Yandy Diaz (Jake Bauers), Tyler Naquin (Non-tendered), Anthony Santander (Rule 5), Ka'ai Tom (Rule 5), Luis Oviedo Rule 5), Julian Merryweather (Josh Donaldson)

This is the worst part, actually.   Our current 26-man roster is being helped by Wittgren, Maton and Stephan from this list (not counting Bauers, which I never do!).   While Wittgren has been solid, Luplow and Maton have been OK and Stephan has promise, how does it compare to the guys we let go essentially for nothing?   The truth is it doesn't.   We wasted all the assets above in red and now, in an attempt to make sure we don't do it again, we play Bauers while, by the way, we appear to have done it again with Naquin.  This is crazy and pathetic and infuriating when payroll is being slashed.  

When you have limited resources like the Indians do you cannot afford to have a ledger sheet that looks like this for these kinds of players.   The Indians have screwed up this part of their player development and impacted their performance in the past, now, and likely in the future. 

We just need to do better...and not make any stupid moves like this in the future.  

Thoughts for an off-day: Rule 5 draft, options left, how we are so close but yet so far and another thought on the Lindor trade

In the hangover of a pathetic opening day hitting performance where we had to, once again, see Jake Bauers and Ben Gamel play and Amed Rosario make a clear error that cost us two runs and, to rub salt in the wound

 Rule 5 Draft 

The Indians, with their cheap owner and relatively low revenue stream, are clearly going to continue to be a prospect-driven organization.   That type of organization can't afford to have prospects get away without getting, at least, equal, young, controllable talent back.   It's just the way it has to be.

That being said, the Indians lost two players in the Rule 5 draft this winter, Luis Oviedo and Ka'ai Tom. They got one back in Trevor Stephan.   

Fourteen of the eighteen players drafted have, at this point, stuck with their new teams.   One of those, Dedriel Nunez, has had Tommy John surgery and so won't be on the active roster this year.   Thus 13/18 (72%) began the season on active rosters.   This number is much higher than normal.  Without doing the long term research (because I am lazy) and only using the two previous Rule 5 drafts my impression is that this represents a TOTAL flip of what is usually seen.   That is, about 1/4 of guys selected in the Rule 5 actually stay with their new team or a team that trades for them after the draft.

Teams with two of these players on their active roster this year are the Pirates, Orioles and Marlins.  As far as losing players, besides the Indians, the Dodgers, Twins and Yankees lost two players.   While these sample sizes are small, it looks like the rich teams lose the most and the rebuilding teams take on the most risk by adding guys.   Not surprising.  But why are the Indians in the group with the winning teams?  It's a little concerning that a prospect-coveting team like the Indians would lose an outfielder and a young pitcher.  This is not the first time in recent history this has happened to the Tribe.  Anthony Santander was lost to the Orioles a few years ago and wouldn't he look good in the Indians outfield right now?  It's not like Cleveland has the top farm system in baseball, either.   They have ranked near the middle of the pack or below in the past 4 years so they shouldn't really be losing players in the Rule 5 draft.

And we did this while clogging up a roster spot with Jake Bauers and adding guys like Harold Ramirez to the active roster.    Pathetic, really.  Protect your own guys.

Options Left

We have heard, ad nauseum, really, about how we MIGHT have lost Jake Bauers if we didn't keep him on the roster because Bauers was out of options.   But what has not been mentioned is that when we sent Bobby Bradley down I think we used his last option.   This means that next spring he will be in the same boat as Bauers: If we want to send Bradley to the minors in 2022 he would have to pass through waivers.   If we had kept Bradley instead of Bauers then Bradley would have had an option left if he had struggled.   Just another reason that the Bauers over Bradley decision is a stupid one.

Close but yet so far

We really only needed to fill two positions, CF and 1B.   However, repeating the mistakes of 2020 the Indians went cheap with our options in the OF and were left with Ben Gamel.  Then the Indians chose with our ego instead of our heads and went with Bauers at 1B.  And, on top of that we added two shortstops to our already burgeoning prospect list of SS.   We could have flipped one of those (read Rosario) for a CFer who could have played right now.  

Just a little better GMing with an owner willing to spend a little money and we could be 3-1 right now instead of 1-3 against two of the worst teams in baseball, the Royals and the Tigers.   As I said, all you have to do is see how the Twins demolished the Tigers yesterday after we went 1-2 against then and scored 5 runs in the first 23 innings against their pitching that was bombed by the Twins.  

Again, it starts at the top and Dolan is screwing us and Antonneti and Chernof don't appear to be able to make favorable trades or plan for the future.   It is all reactive crap and that reactive crap is getting us in trouble now and will continue to in the future.

Dolan said yesterday that the first half of this season will be used to evaluate what we have in our young players.   Could that mean that we will have a fire sale in Juley/August if we are out of the race?  With Dolan, that is a distinct possibility.  Maybe it could mean that we will dump Bauers if he doesn't pan out but do you really trust that this is what Dolan means?   I don't.

Lindor Trade 

Like noses, most people have opinions.   You would probably be hard-pressed to find an Indians fan who doesn't have an opinion on trading (and not signing) Lindor.  Many feel we should have signed him to an extension, come hell or high water.   However, the astute fans know that isn't possible.   What fans should be focusing on is that the return we got for Lindor/Carrasco was light and it was pointed towards a position group (middle infielders) that we were overloaded with.  Just a look at the return the Pirates got for Joe Musgrove and the comparison that Carrasco should have netted, by himself, a similar return, tells you it was light.   That's really the key here.   When you make a trade where you give up a star like Lindor and a #2 starter like Carrasco, you need to do well, extremely well.   The sense is that we wanted to dump Lindor, had to throw in Carrasco to get it done, and we had to take the best of a number of bad offers to get it done.  So, in summary, we HAD to trade Lindor.  But to do that and throw in Carrasco and get the return, both in who we got and how many prospects we got, shows that we got screwed in this trade.   "Screwed" in this sense doesn't mean totally robbed.   It means we needed more prospects AND prospects who would help us now and in the future at positions we needed.   Getting two shortstops and two very low level minor leaguers doesn't help the retool and rebuild at all, really, meaning we got screwed in this trade.

And what about the official scorer?

 Look, I know there are rules about official scoring but in those rules there is language that makes in clear that it is that person's judgement, right?

So you are playing in Cleveland and unless they have taken the call out of the hands of the local official scorer and taken it to the national level (might have, don't really know), it should be a local guy's decision, right?  

And, if that person is the official socrer in Cleveland it is safe to say that they are an Indians fan, right?

And, just like if there is a tie that tie goes to the runner you would expect that if there is a very close official scoring decision it should go to the home team, right?  Unless the person is doing it is a pompous a-hole who thinks their stuff doesn't stink, right?

So, given all the above, I fail to see how a ground ball that hits the SS in the chest can ever be ruled an infield hit.   I have seen the replay 5 times now and I just don't see it.

Which brings me, FINALLY, to the reason for this post.   Logan Allen pitched a good game today.  The main blot on that outing was a HR by Whit Merrifield right after that two-out "infield hit" in the 2nd inning.   If that 'hit' is scored an error those runs are unearned.  

Soooooo, you would hope that the official scorer, assuming he is not a pompous a-hole, would change that decision on Tuesday after he had a night to think about that the hit/error decision was a close one and that calling the failure to make a routine play on a medium speed ground ball which hit the SS (who as moving toward first base at the time) in the chest, in Cleveland, with the official scorer also being in Cleveland.

To me, no matter how fast Lopez was running, was an error all the way.  Change the freakin' decision to an error on Amed Rosario and give Allen the clean (ERA-based) outing he deserves.   Hey, it was the only good thing about the game on opening day.  Don't take that away, too.

We now know who we are

 Logan Allen a little shaky but pulled it together.

Triston McKenzie with electric stuff he still needs to control

Other starters and relievers will be solid this year

and...

a bunch of guys who can't hit.

All you have to do is look at two scores today:

Twins 15  Tigers 1 (through 8 1/2 innings) 

This is what a good team does to the Tigers.

Yeah, the Tigers scored 5 in the bottom of the 9th but, still.

Kansas City 3  Cleveland 0

The Indians did this to themselves.   Or should I say the management did this to the the players on the field.

We didn't get enough for Lindor/Carrasco

We didn't flip any of our middle infield prospects to get prospects at different positions (like outfield)

We didn't trade Ahmed Rosario and gamble that Gimenez/Chang would be sufficient to at least hold forth this year until other MIF prospects arrived.

We had holes to fill and we didn't fill them.   Can we fill them this winter?  Yes, after we waste a whole year on control over all of our good players and $55 million in salary.  

We will be lucky to be .500 this year.   Extremely lucky and if it happens it will only be because we have a great manager who, unfortunately, is being hamstrung by a front office who is being hamstrung by a cheap owner.

But, assuming there are no drastic changes in the rules in the next few years, the Indians are set to field a team of really good shortstops in the future.   Here's the alignment they plan to use to maximize their strengths.

I think this could be revolutionary!  At least it is more to look forward to then watching Gamel and Bauers flail pathetically.

Oh, when people tell you how lucky we are to have had all these winning seasons in a row, why don't you google up the St. Louis Cardinals and how many winning records they have had in a row and in the last 20 years.

Thoughts on our first win

We won our first game!  This has great significance as it gives us a little momentum heading into the home opener.  Here are some first-win thoughts:

Civale looked strong after giving up the HRs, following on the solid work done by Beiber and Plesac.   Even though it is a meaningless stat because all runs count, these three combined for 2 runs allowed in 16 innings AFTER the first inning.   

Probably the biggest thing of this game, for me, is how solide Cal Quantrill looked.   Do not sleep on this guy as the closer before this year is out.   Clase throwing 100+ with a workable slider is also exciting.  

It was nice to see that our guys did what we all hoped they would do, hitting-wise.   Rosario drove in runs. Reyes hit a HR.  Luplow hit a LHP hard.   Chang produced offensively like he hinted at in ST II last year and the first half of this spring...and did it without hitting a HR.  Even Austin Hedges showed that he has a (faint) pulse at the plate with a HR.  And we didn't score all of our runs on HRs.   We had some timely hitting, too.  Every starter scored a run, guys hit balls hard.   And we did it without Cesar Hernandez getting a hit!

These are all positive signs.   There are things that should qualify our enthusiasm but I don't know that those are relevant, really, going into the home opener.

Now on to the home opener.   This season can still go way north or way south of mediocre this year.   Time will tell but, in the meantime, we can enjoy this win and look forward to the most exciting day in Indians baseball (until we win a WS)...opening day every year!

We lost another game because of bad management decisions

 There were two balls that our centerfielder should have caught yestereday.  They counted for 3 runs (Castro's triple in the first, Jone's bloop single in the 7th.   

Having Gamel in CF is a mistake.   Heck, having to have Gamel on the team at all is a sign of how poorly this FO is working:

• Getting lower value than they should have for Lindor/Carrasco (see return on Joe Musgrove trade to Padres which should have equated to what we got for Carrasco)
• Not getting (center field, read: Nick Senzel) value for Ahmed Rosario when it was clear that Gimenez was going to be the starter
• Settling on the defensive (and offensive) challenged Gamel in CF instead of just giving the job to the better defender in Zimmer or Mercado.
• Batting the offensively-challenged Gamel leadoff just because it made the rest of the lineup better
• Hamstringing this offense even more by counting on Bauers and Hedges to even be on this team.

Folks, the FO and the manager are choking.   We saw it by the results in spring training.   We saw it on the roster decisions.   Now we are seeing it by the results.

The decisions these people are making are indefensible in terms of winning now or building for the future.  They are, however, defensible if all you are trying to do is save face for bad previous trades and have some weird idea that banishing guys to the minors somehow makes them better and that unfairly doing this somehow will make that player better in the future.

No, people, for sure these first two losses are 100% on the front office and manager AND the inferior players they have stuck us with.   That is, the illogically determined players.

Let's talk opening day and the alternate site roster

THOUGHTS ON OPENING DAY

 The thing I look for on opening day is if we see a continuation of what we saw in spring training.   So let's go through it.

Jordan Luplow going 0-fer.   He was like 0-15 in ST and he went 0-3 today.  A little concerning that his day was essentially over after making that diving catch.   Is he hurt?  If not, he certainly is not hitting.  Now, some people want to write off last year to him playing hurt.  But look at his batting averages over his four years in the majors: .205, .186, .276 and, last year, .192.   Now I know he hits lefties really well but a closer look says that this is based mostly on 2019.   If you throw out 2019 he is very pedestrian vs LH pitchers (OPS around .730), but pathetic across the years against RH pitching.  So, if he isn't injured I will cut him some slack but had Ahmed Rosario started in CF today and led off, we had a decent chance to win that game, even with shaky CF defense. 

Shane Bieber throwing a lot of pitches up and away on the glove side.   He seemed to do this a lot in ST and he did it again today on occasion.   These pitches are ones that NO hitter will swing at, meaning, to me, they are not intentional.  I will credit the 3 walks and 2 wild pitches to the conditions today.   We will see though.

Batting against mediocre pitching - Towards the end of ST we faced some middle of the road starting pitching and they shut down our offense.   Today was more of the same against Boyd.   Geez, imagine what will happen when we play against GOOD pitching!?!  

Jake Bauers and Ben Gamel not hitting - 0-1 and 0-1 with a walk today.

Eddie Rosario with that loopy swing that creates weak ground balls to the right side - Happened repeatedly in ST and again multiple times today.   He looks like his wrist hurts or something because he is not hitting the ball firmly most of the time.

Roberto Perez hitting and walking with confidence - Both during ST and today.

Jose Ramirez hitting (or not) in the clutch - Look, Ramirez has had problems hitting in the clutch.  It seemed better this spring but did not translate today.

Yu Chang - He didn't produce again today.  He didn't produce all last year.   In fact, in the majors, he has never produced.   He looked a lot like that bad Yu Chang near the end of ST and that translated again today.

Josh Naylor - Struggling in the field, scuffling at the plate.   Ditto for ST and today's game.

Andres Gimenez - Struggled near the end of ST but, even in struggling, you can see that "it" is in there.   Ditto for him hitting today.

James Karinchak - Brain farts in ST and today.   You can't walk a guy an inning in the big leagues.  You have to be, at worst, 1 walk every 2 innings.   He has to get better but it was encouraging that he got out of the inning without sriking out the side. 

Bryan Shaw - He looked reborn in ST and again today, even in bad conditions.

So, although Tito likes to caution us that ST trends can be a mirage, it looks like

ALTERNATE SITE 

The taxi squad and the alternate site team look about right to me.   You want to keep Gose motivated and that is one way you can do it.    The question mark for me was that I didn't see Tyler Freeman's name on the list although we was with the team all ST (Arias was sent down).   You could say it is because of Freeman's inexperience but, if you compare levels played between Arias and Freeman, they are the same.   The only difference between them is that Arias was acquired in the Clevinger trade and I would guess it would look good to have players from that trade closer to the majors.  Let's hope it isn't that AND it isn't that Freeman is hurt as he took a pitch off the wrist later in ST, although he played, and got a hit, the next game.   So, if Freeman is not hurt, then not having him at the alternate site is something I could live with, although everything would say he should be ahead of Arias at this point in reality and in the eyes of management.   Let's hope he is healthy.