HERE ARE MY PROPOSALS FOR THINGS TO BE IN THE NEW COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENT

Obviously there are going to be lots of issues addressed in the upcoming CBA negotiations.   Here are some proposals I have along with the reasons I think they make sense.

1, Eliminate the Rule 5 draft - There is enough evidence that this draft actually does very little for the development of the players drafted.   Teams play all kinds of games during the season to hold onto players.  Guys sit on the bench for most of the season when they could be playing in the minors.  I see the theoretical need for it  but, in practice, I perceive that it does more harm than good to the development of these players.  There are probably substantive stats to back up what I am saying but I am too lazy to do the quantitative work.  Instead of the Rule 5 lets do the following:

2. Change minor league free agency as follows:

a. If you are signed BEFORE you turn 19 you are not eligible for minor league free agency until, the first December 1st that you are 24 years old.  If you are rostered, obviously they can't become minor league free agents unless they are released.

b. If you sign AFTER you turn 19 you are not eligible for minor league free agency until the first December 1st after you turn 25.

c. No team is allowed to have more than 3 options on any player once he is added to the 40 man roster.

A couple of thoughts about why this is better:

a. This gives HS kids essentially the same amount of time they had in the current CBA before they become minor league free agents as they had before.

b. Latin signees now have more years for their development than before.  Many Latin players would only be 20 or 21 before they were rostered.  I think that is too young.  

c. 4-year college players have less time for their development, but, as they are pretty highly trained when they are drafted, they shouldn't need as much time before they have to be put on the 40 man roster.

d. JUCO kids have the same time as before until they can become a minor league free agent.

I think these changes will allow teams to develop players and eliminate a lot of bad things about the current Rule 5 and minor league free agency rules.  

A couple of other thoughts on rules:

• I am a big proponent of the 7 inning games on days when there are doubleheaders.  I have seen this year that teams can get through a doubleheader without decimating their bullpen.  
• I am also a big proponent of the pitch clock
• I like the 26 man roster and the extra man for doubleheader days
• I like the 28 man roster limit after September 1st.  
• I like the idea that the bases are bigger to help increase the value of speed in the game.
• I like limiting shifting and player positioning as described in the minor league experiments. 
• I don't want to make the mounds higher, or deaden the ball or the bats. 

Just some thoughts.  Hopefully someone will work to solve the Rule 5 fiaxco.  I think my suggestions above have merit.

 

PROSPECT EVALUATION - THE CATCHERS

 The catching prospects in the Indians' organization was thinned by the trading of Yainer Diaz.  As was stated at the time, this was a good use of Diaz who was only playing low A ball.   He would have had to be rostered this winter and we really can't afford adding more dead roster space.  The trade of Diaz is EXACTLY the type of trade the Indians need to make with the excess players on their roster.   If you were a GM whose team was in contention for a playoff spot and traded your excess starting CFer with a limited skill set for help this year, you would also want a long-term asset thrown in, in case this year (or the veteran you traded for) blew up in your face.  By acquiring Maton and Diaz for Straw both sides got what they wanted.

So, on to our catching prospect situation vis-a-vis the Rule 5 draft. 

BRYAN LAVASTIDA

SUMMARY: Lavastida is really the only Rule 5 eligible catching prospect we have who should be under consideration for rostering.  He shows a good hit tool right now and will take his walks.  He has very little power right now but, as they say, power is the last thing to develop.  By what I understand, he has passable catching skills.

PROS: Lavastida has, for all practical purposes, conquered AA, meaning he will be, in theory, ready to help the Indians sometime next year.  He will likely be a prime target in this year's Rule 5 draft if he is left unprotected.   The Indians are set up if they protect Lavastida this year and Naylor (and maybe Melendez) next year for their catching to be young, talented and affordable by 2023 and in the future.  Plus making sure we keep Lavastida means that we will have an internal option next year in case of injury to our ML catchers.

CONS: We have to sign a ML catcher (either Perez or a veteran backup) to pair with Hedges.   That will cost us a roster spot.   Why not just save that roster spot and gamble that a guy like Lavastiday, only passable catching skills, little power, will pass through the Rule 5.

DECISION: ROSTER HIM - Yes we are in a roster crunch but as long as he continues to hit Lavastida is in our long-term plans at catcher because, frankly, there is no one else right now in the minors who could be counted on in 2022 and, maybe, even in 2023, depending on Naylor's development curve.

ANDRES MELENDEZ

SUMMARY - Melendez has the tools to be a ML catcher.   He is by all accounts a quality defensive catcher and is an improving hitter who is showing some power.   He has been a favorite of mine every since we acquired him from Milwaukee.  He has only reached low A and is still only 20 years old  

PROS:  He is a catching prospect who can hit which adds to his value.   Teams sometimes will take chances in the Rule 5 on guys who they can slot as utility infielders, third catchers or mop up relievers, especially now the 26-man roster is here to stay.  The most recent Rule 5 draft had a high number of players selected and a large percentage of them actually stuck with their drafting team, both of which are unusual results.  So the chances of him getting drafted AND us losing him are much greater than in previous years.

CONS: He is in low A.   He has not shown a dominant tool yet.   Until Diaz was traded he was the backup catcher and, frankly, did his best AFTER Diaz was traded.   He is unlikely to be selected as there is nothing that would indicate that he could successfully even be a #3 catcher on a ML roster right now.

DECISION: DON'T ROSTER - Very low risk gamble to leave him unprotected.   If he keeps his current upward development curve rate the story before next year's Rule 5 draft will be a very different one, however.

OTHER CATCHERS

The injuries to our veteran catchers this year have highlighted that (a) we have a dearth of ML-ready catching prospects and (b) that we do have a lot of guys who look NOW like journeymen minor league catchers but who may, in time, develop into ML backup catcher material if everything clicks.  

Mike Rivera, Gavin Collins, Gianpaul Gonzalez, Angel Lopez-Alvarez are all minor league catchers who fit that mold.  

None of these guys are worth protecting.   As we can't fit all of them on the off-season Colubmbus protected list, some of them may be selected in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft this year but none will be selected in the major league portion.

Prospect Evaluation: Infielders

 If this organization has any strong suits they are pitching and middle infielders.  In this post I will talk about the middle infield prospects who we will have to roster this winter.   Let's dig in.

JOHNKENSY NOEL

SUMMARY - He has burst on the scene big-time this year, showing immense power, great batting average and not very good defense.  His OB skills are not great.   He also showed a knack for the big moment, driving in 65 runs (on 19 HRs) in only 250 ABs.   Basically, he shows all the hitting skills necessary to be an above average big league hitter.   And he did this at the age of 19.  

PROS TO ROSTERING HIM - He has big league power right now and hits for average.   I hate to make this comp on him but Albert Pujols was in much the same place when he broke out with the Cardinals, basically jumping from High A to the majors and never looking back.  A more recent comp is Anthony Santander.  Either way, you want to protect him.   

CONS -  I have talked about dead roster spots meaning a spot on the 40-man roster who won't help the Indians for 2-3 years and may be out of options before he is completely ready to stay in the majors.   People are talking about a guy needing close to 2000 minor league ABs to be completely ready for the majors. Noel has 540 and he is just 19 years old meaning that he may need the whole 2000 (see Bobby Bradley)..   

DECISION - ROSTER HIM - Right now Noel looks like he might have the potential to be a generational player.  again, not to throw comps on this guy but think Manny Ramirez.  You swallow hard and protect this guy and pray that he continues his steep, upward development trending and that he gets to the majors for good before his options run out.

TYLER FREEMAN

SUMMARY - Freeman has hit at every level.   He suffered a significant injury at the end of the season which may have set him back a year in his development, meaning the Indians may not get anything out of him until at least 2023.  Not really a dead roster spot but not one that will impact the team in 2022. He is a baseball player.

PROS - He hits.  He plays middle infield.   He is a gamer,   He is close to the majors.

CONS - He doesn't hit for power.   We have seen with Owen Miller how minor league stats can mean nothing and Owen Miller may be a good comp for Freeman.   He was dinged up most of this season meaning, although he was healthy in past seasons, will his body stand up to full season play year in and year out?

DECISION - ROSTER HIM.   Again, you just can't let guys like this go!

BRAYAN ROCCHIO

SUMMARY - He has succeeded so far in the minors and has succeeded MORE as he has gone up the ladder, never blinking at a new challenge.   He will have to fall in line behind Gabriel Arias but Rocchio appears to be the real deal, separating himself from other top middle infield prospects like Aaron Bracho, Junior Sanquintin, Gabriel Arias, Jose Fermin and Marco Gonzalez.  

PROS: He is a middle infielder, he hits and he can play SS.  He has improved at every level

CONS: None

DECISION: ROSTER HIM

RICHARD PALACIOS

SUMMARY - Palacios had a breakout season this year.   Part of that was that, due to injuries and the pandemic, he only had 169 ABs as a professional before this year.  He shows a really good walk rate and hit tool and doubles power but no HR power to this point. 

PROS: His breakout year is at the top of the minors and shows the potential he had can actually come to fruition.   The fact that he can play on the IF and in the OF is another plus as is his very good walk rate and some base stealing abilty.   Clearly, this guy can stuff a stat sheet.

CONS: Think of Ernie Clement.   Palacios is better offensively but not as good defensively but both have something in common: they cannot impact a game by themselves.   At best they are complementary players, at worst they are fringe major leagues. 

DECISION: ROSTER HIM - As it is too early to tell if Palacios ends up like Clement or like a host of other ML players who have blossomed in the high minors and continues that in the majors AND because he is almost major league ready, you have to keep him.   In the best of all possible worlds a guy without power or extreme speed or extreme defense wouldn't be protected from the Rule 5.  But given that he is so early in his development and his floor looks plenty high right now, you have to keep him.  If someone falls through the cracks, though, it is likely to be a guy like Palacios.  Let's hope that doesn't happen.

JOSE TENA

SUMMARY - Moving up to High A he had a solid season and even did well in the playoffs with Akron.  He showed a spike in his power this year and an OPS that looks good for a 20 year old at High A.  another victim of MLB counting the pandemic year as a minor league season AND the MLB rule saying that an August signee has to count that year as a professional season, he has missed two years.  

PROS - His spike in performance this year was not TOTALLY unexpected so this looks a lot more like good development instead of a flash-in-the-pan season.  He is a middle infielder with power who hit well at a young age at high A.  He has become a real prospect who cannot afford to be lost

CONS - He is young and has had one good season as is likely to be more dead roster space as he will probably take until 2024 to be a reasonable option, meaning he will have burned two options before he can even help the ML team.

DECISION: ROSTER HIM - Arrrgh, this is the problem.  We have so many of these young players who are dead roster space that your only real choices are to trade them before November or roster them.  Leaving them exposed to the Rule 5 is not an option.

JOSE FERMIN

SUMMARY - Another middle infielder, Fermin doesn't flash any power potential and his stolen base numbers cratered this year.   He showed natural progression this year and some power towards the end of the season.

PROS - He is close to the majors, has been trained at multiple positions and there is that late power thing.   He is a good defender and is close to the majors, maybe being able to impact the major league roster in 2022.

CONS - Middle infielders with no power or speed and only middling walk rates better be Omar Vizquel.   Fermin is not that guy and is just a good, solid prospect.  

DECISION - DON'T ROSTER HIM - This one hurts but we knew at some point this would happen.   There are just too many roster spots for guys like Fermin to elbow his way in.   My best solution is to try to package Fermin and Kwan and get a pitching or catching prospect who was drafted in 2020 or 2021 (so they wouldn't be Rule 5 eligble for a couple of years.  Otherwise, odds are good you would lose one or both in the upcoming Rule 5.

Guys like Aaron Bracho, Andruw Monasterio, Victor Nova and Marcos Gonzalez, among others, are either older for their levels or have not performed at a level that would get them selected.   Bracho, in particular, has had a disappointing season but was a top 10 prospect last winter so some team may take a flyer on him in the Rule 5.   Still, not rostering guys like this is a chance we would have to take.

 Next up: catching prospects  

Prospect Evaluation: The Pitchers

 Normally, your 40-man roster in the winter includes 22-25 pitchers, depending on the state of your farm system, your major league team and who is eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

Right now, based on the projected returnees from our current roster, I estimate that we have 15 pitchers who I think we should keep.   

That leaves room for us to add, in some way, pitchers to the roster.   Let's take a look at the Rule 5-eligible pitchers who might warrant being added to the roster to protect them this winter.

CODY MORRIS

SUMMARY -  Morris spent more than half the season on the DL.  When he came back he looked like a major league pitcher.   He was throwing mid 90s with a great breaking ball.   He looked dominant in AA and then, surprisingly, moved up to AAA and looked even more dominant.  

PROS:  He looks like he can help in 2022 and then even more so in future years.   Starting pitchers with his credentials don't make it through the Rule 5

CONS: He has an injury history and not a very long track record, at all, in the upper minors.  

DECISION: PUT ON THE ROSTER.  As I said, he won't make it through the Rule 5 and, as a guy with success in AAA, he appears almost major-league ready.

JUAN HILLMAN

SUMMARY: Hillman has had a slow but steady development in the Indians farm system.  He has appeared on Indians' prospect lists for years.  He has rarely flashed lights out stuff but he has alwasy shown the ability to string good stretches together.   He is currently 24 years old and has not really pitched significantly in AAA.   Also, given that his first year was in 2015, if he is not rostered he becomes a minor league free agent this winter and can sign with any club.

PROS:  He has a good prospect pedigree and his advance is steady.  He should be ready for his first ML work in 2022.   He can walk as a minor league free agent.

CONS: He is active on social media which the Indians are not fans of.  He has not shown lights out tools so his upsdie currently looks like 5th starter, mop-up guy and, if they roster him, they might want to look at him in the bullpen. 

DECISION: ROSTER HIM.   This is not the ideal decision but we are out of time.  Not rostering him means we don't think he is a prospect any more.  This decision will play out long before the Rule 5 draft as he will have to be rostered right after the WS is done, long before the ML rosters are frozen (against adding more of your own prospects) before the Rule 5 draft.   

JOEY CANTILLO

SUMMARY: Cantillo was an important part of the Clevinger trade to San Diego.  HE missed essentially all of this season and was listed in the teens in recent Indians prospect rankings.  So he is not an incredibly good prospect and hasn't really pitched in 2 years due to COVID and his arm injury.  He has never pitched in AA.

PROS: Highly ranked prospect, left handed.

CONS: Injured all year which might give teams pause in drafting him, along with not pitching above A ball.  The A ball thing and his injury this year means rostering him may create a dead roster space (not helping the ML team until 2024 while using all his options up before he is ML ready. 

DECISION: ROSTER HIM.   Another tough call but just think of Luis Oviedo who now belongs to the Pirates.  Cantillo fits that same mold and we can't really afford to lose a big part of the Clevinger trade to the Rule 5.   Remember, it is NOT a performance issue, it is an injury issue.   If we don't protect him it is very likely that we will lose him.

KONNOR PILKINGTON

SUMMARY: The only player received in the Cesar Hernandez trade, Pilkington is a pitchability guy who is solidly through with AA ball.   This means that he could be projected to be a starting pitching option for Cleveland in the last half of 2022 or the beginning of 2023.

PROS:  His conquering of AA means there is something good there, despite the fact that he is not a highly ranked prospect.  

CONS: Not a highly ranked prospect.

DECISION: ROSTER HIM - This is a tough call for me but I don't think for the Indians front office staff.   When you trade a year and a half of the defending AL doubles champion and gold glove second baseman to a division rival AND that division rival thinks so much of that guy that they use their stud rookie secondbaseman as trade bait for a setup guy, you can bet the FO guys will roster him.   If they trade Hernandez and lose Pilkington to the Rule 5 it would be major egg on their face and this FO doesn't like egg on their face.

ADAM SCOTT

SUMMARY: He looked like he was going to be the lefty version of Cody Morris as, like Morris, he was hurt most of the year and burned through AA on his return.   The difference is that Scott stalled at AAA a little more than Morris and, unfortunately, there wasn't enough time to evaluate his worth as a close to the majors option.  

PROS; Scott was a relatively high draft pick who appeared on the end of some prospect rankings for the Indians.  He is left-handed and, if the results this year are to be trusted, relatively close to the majors in terms of his readiness.

CONS: There just isn't enough data that would compel the Indians to protect him.  

DECISION: DON'T ROSTER HIM - Unless he is placed in the Arizona Fall League and just dominates, teams may not see his potential.   That being said, he is a relatively low risk Rule 5 pick as he could easily be hiddent for a year as a lefty long reliever.   On paper, he looks like a safer gamble than Luis Oviedo and we know how that ended.

JUAN MOTA

SUMMMARY: Huge fastball, not much control

PROS: His fastball means that, one day, he could project as a major league reliever and a team could dream on him putting it together this year.

CONS: He has the one loud tool but not the performance to say that tool is anymore close the ML ready..  

DECISION: DON'T ROSTER.   There are just too many question marks here.   That being said, he fits the profile of a Rule 5 pick but I think we should let that happen.   I think Mota comes back by the end of spring training if he is drafted.  Just too much work left to be done on this project to keep around.  That being said, a

JERSON RAMIREZ

DECISION: DON'T ROSTER - He is still too young and inexperienced.   We won't have the roster space and we can't have any more dead roster space than we will already.

There may be other guys like Tim Herrin and Nic Enright who might be interesting but, with their stuff, they look like, at best, the next coming of Cam Hill.

OTHER PITCHING PROSPECTS

There will be several other minor league pitchers under scrutiny for the Rule 5 draft.   If we DFA guys like Anthony Gose, Cam Hill, Kyle Nelson, Scott Moss and Justin Garza and they make it through waivers and re-sign with us they will be targets.  

Guys like Aaron Pinto, Nic Enright, Kirk McCarty, Robert Broom, Tanner Tully, Ben Krauth, Skylar Arias, Dakody Clemmer and a number of others have an outside chance of getting drafted in the Rule 5, either in the major or minor league portions, depending if they are on the Columbus list.

Prospect Evaluation: the outfielders

 OK, it's time to kick off the discussion of the pros and cons of which prospects we want to roster this winter.  As I have said, this is a tricky proposition as for each guy we put on the roster in November it is likely that a current player will either be removed by DFA or trade or release.  

So let's start with our outfield prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 this year:

WILL BENSON 

SUMMARY:Benson has been on Indians' prospect lists since he was drafted in 2016.  He has struggled with his BA (.212) although is power and OBP numbers remain strong, the latter due to a strong walk rate.  He has decent speed and a good arm.  He has 5 1/2 years in to his minor league career so the Indians will control his rights for one more year if they don't lose him in the Rule 5.

PROS TO ROSTERING HIM:  With his work this year at AA and AAA it appears that Benson may be on the cusp of a breakthrough.  He has power, speed and good OB skills, making him a relatively perfect 4th/5th outfielder for a rebuilding team if they take him in the Rule 5.

CONS:  Benson has a historically low BA and strikes out at a high rate.  He only hit .155 at AAA since his promotion, making him less attractive to a team fishing to find quality Rule 5 eligible prospects.

DECISION:  DON'T ROSTER - I see it as a low likelihood he will be drafted and very little chance he would last with his new team even if they did draft him.

GEORGE VALERA

SUMMARY: Valera was the #5 prospect coming into this season for the Indians.  He rose up to AA this year after starting the year at High A.  His numbers have remained solid as he moved up the ladder.

PROS: He is a top prospect with very good power which will likely only get better.  He has a chance to be a 5-tool player.

CONS: Likely he won't get to the majors until 2023 at the earliest meaning he will be dead weight on the 40 man for maybe 2 years.

DECISION: ROSTER

OSCAR GONZALEZ

SUMMARY: Gonzalez has always shown flashes of becoming a power-hitting outfielder.  He has little speed and is only an acceptable OFer, probably limited to LF in the long run and his walk rates are dismal, although they have improved this year along with his power.   If he isn't rostered he will likely be lost as a 6-year minor league free agent.

PROS:  He is close to major league ready.   He hits for power and he hits for average.   If we don't roster him we will likely lose him for nothing.   We don't have a lot of outfielders who could play in Cleveland next year and Gonzalez is one of those so adding him to the roster adds depth for 2022.  He is still young at 23 so could be approaching his prime as a player.

CONS: Gonzalez has never appeared high on Indians' prospect lists.  His breakout year might be a mirage.  His low walk rate may be exposed in the majors.

DECISION: ROSTER.  The Indians would be gambling on Gonzalez continuing to progress on his hit and power tools as well as his plate discipline.   Given his young age it would likely be a mistake to allow him to escape as a 6-year free agent, especially considering the dearth of outfield prospects who could impact the ML team in 2022.

STEVEN KWAN

SUMMARY:  Kwan has steadily worked his way up the Indians' system.  He profiles very similarly to Ka'ai Tom as he doesn't have great power speed or OB skills and his defense is only average.  Basically he is solid across the board with his hit tool being above average.   His most compelling stat is that he is 23 and at AAA.

PROS: He is young and dominating, hit-tool-wise, in the high minors.   He is an on-base machine and has shown a little power this year.  He is almost major-league ready, which makes him a rarity in the Indians' organization.  Plus his swing-and-miss percentage is sick, easily being the best in the minors.

CONS: He isn't a true centerfielder.  His hit tool is good but he doesn't have a lot of speed.   While he is a good player his tools don't flash as being any more than a 4th outfielder.   We saw how Ka'ai Tom was exposed this year and I don't see Kwan being any different.  

SUMMARY: DON'T ROSTER - This is a tough one but the Indians didn't even want to bring back Tom when the Pirates offered him back recently.   I see value in Kwan but I just don't see us spending a roster spot on him.  He profiles as a likely Rule 5 selection based on his AAA experience and his ability to function as a 4th outfielder but  I think it is worth the gamble to not roster him.

ALEXFRI PLAMEZ

SUMMARY:   This is Planez's first full season in professional baseball and his season was clearly breakout as he oozes power, speed and defense potential, including an above-average arm.   He is on the upswing and likely will breakthrough to the Indians' top 30 prospects this winter.

PROS: A guy that is being screwed by the pandemic and the ridiculous Rule 5 rules regarding Latin signees, his tools just ooze superstar potential if he puts it all together.   Although he has only played at low A he could easily be hidden on the roster of a team like Baltimore or Arizona next year with the goal of getting a stud player for peanuts.   

CONS: He is so far away from the majors that rostering him now means another dead roster spot for a couple of years and blowing through option years without a realistic chance of impacting the major league club before 2024, at the earliest.  

DECISION: DON'T ROSTER.   I love this guy's tools and how he obviously is about to go to a steeper part of his improvement curve.  I think he currently projects as an average to slightly above average major league outfielder but a team that drafted him would be foolish, given how far away from the majors he is.

NEXT TIME; Middle infield prospects eligible for the Rule 5.  Which ones should we roster.

Roster Debate: The Starting Pitchers and the Catchers

 As we make our way to the last two groups, starting pitchers and catchers on the 40-man roster, here is what we have.

STARTING PITCHERS

Shane Beiber - KEEP 

Aaron Civale - KEEP

Zach Plesac - KEEP

Cal Quantrill - KEEP

Triston McKenzie - KEEP

Eli Morgan - KEEP - This is an important roster spot but, if everyone is healthy and effective, Morgan will be depth at AAA.   He can hone his stuff down there knowing how he hast to attack batters based on his stuff and just learn to attack them that way.

Carlos Vargas - KEEP (maybe) - Most difficult decision we have yet encountered in these blog posts.   We may have forgotten but the last time Vargas played was in 2019 and that was at Mahoning Valley.   He has never played one inning of full-season minor league baseball as the 2020 season was cancelled.   This is a good example of a team shooting themselves in the foot.   They loved Vargas enough as a long-term prospect to place him on the 40 man at a very early stage in his development.   Then the pandemic hit, then Tommy John surgery.   So they have a player who likely is 3 years away from the majors with maybe only 2 minor league options left, unless through appeal or through a change in the collective bargaining agreement he gets that extra option year.   However, even if that is true, he will still likely create a "dead" roster spot for the next two years, at least, meaning the ML team won't get anything out of the player AND will have reduced roster flexibility as a result of rostering a guy not prepared to help the major league team in the near future.  So, most difficult decision but I guess you have made your bed with him and now you have to sleep in it and see if he healthy and how he advances next spring.

CATCHERS

Austin Hedges - KEEP -  Look, when he comes up I think "Chicken Little" and I am yelling at the screeen "Don't Swing" and "No".  But he is the most reliable catcher on the team right now.

Roberto Perez - DON'T BRING BACK ...unless he is willing to play for $3 million on a 1 year deal.   Look, I love Roberto but not for his option price.  $3 million is generous based on how much he has been hurt and how bad his offensive production has been.  He would only get that salary out of loyalty.

SUMMARY

Regarding the starting pitchers, we will be looking at 7, maybe 8 starters going into spring training on the 40-man roster, if we don't make trades or sign free agents to major league deals.  That is tight but we do have guys like Hentges and even Trevos Stephan who could step up if needed.   Still, the guys we have may give us the best starting 5 pitchers in baseball if they are healthy and continue to perform at a high level.  

As far as catchers go we will need at least one of our spots on the 40-man to be held for catcher #2 (behind or along with Hedges) as Bryan Lavistida won't be ready for the major leagues at the beginning of the season.  It would be nice, after the Rule 5 draft, to make a move or two to clear a spot for Roberto coming back a significantly reduced salary.  That would be ideal.   But, either way, we need to hold that spot open for SOMEONE.   

So, now we are done with the current 40 man roster player-by-player discussions.  Next we will look at the number of prospects we need to roster and compare that to the open roster spots I say we should create.   Finally I will see if there is room for any of the guys I said to remove from the roster and, if so, which ones we should add back in.   

Roster Debate: The Outfielders

 As we start talking about outfielders we have to look at how this team will be constructed next year.   Key questions include (1) will we sign any significant free agents and (2) If so, will we look at outfielder/DH types.   So let's dive into the outfielders and see what we have/need.

Myles Straw - KEEP - He is a grinder and plays the game hard...something we said about Zimmer when he came up.  He is the key piece to this outfield puzzle because he addresses things (strong defense in CF, leadoff hitter, capable of playing against both righthanders and lefthanders AND a righthanded bat) that we might have to address with two different players.

Franmil Reyes - KEEP - Yes, I am counting the Franimal as an outfielder because I see a scenario (sign a DH or firstbaseman (pushing Bradley to DH) this off-season) that pushes Reyes to the OF almost full-time. 

Bradley Zimmer - KEEP - Zimmer is the perfect 4th outfielder.   Good defense in CF, OK arm in RF, pleny of speed on the bases, stolen bases, ability to take a walk and a HBP and occasional power.  Yes he Ks too often for his production and his boneheaded running plays in the doubleheader were maddening.   That being said, in almost every category he is  better than his competitors for a roster spot and we are talking about a 4th outfielder, right?   He's on.

Josh Naylor - KEEP - Assuming his medicals are telling us he will be ready for spring training, you have to keep him.   I talk a lot about replacement level players.   Naylor is barely above replacement-level but if he can play LF and bring that same energy that he brought this year, he is on.   One warning: If he looks like he will not be ready until June, I would think about DFAing him as roster spots are precious.

Oscar Mercado - REMOVE - He is just replacement-level.   He has had plenty of opportunities and has regressed to a mean that is, well, substandard and not worthy of a roster spot in a winter where we have a roster crunch.

Daniel Johnson - REMOVE - DItto for what I said for Mercado.   Yes, he has less ML ABs and yes, there is a good potential that DFAing him or trading him for magic beans could easily come back to haunt us.   But I doubt that he is making the 26 next spring and, given that, I would rather have Steve Kwan and Oscar Gonzalez in the minors when we need to make a callup.  

Harole Ramirez - REMOVE - For the people who read this blog and a lot of Cleveland fans, this would be a head-scratcher.   But what I say to those people is to keep your eye on the ball.   Harold is barely replacement level and his defense just sucks.   I mean, I think Franmil is a better outfielder.   Harold just looked good this year because his replacement level performance was so much better than our below replacement level outfielders that he APPEARED to be valuable.   Taking a step back, unless he suddenly develops 20 HR power with good defense and speed (cough! Tyler Naquin.  cough!) Ramirez's roster spot is needed elsewhere.

SUMMARY 

The Indians have a lot of mediocre in the OF in the majors.   You just have to take a step back and see that guys like Gonzalez and Kwan, overall, are the future and the guys above who I say to remove from the roster have not shown they are the present, let alone the future.   Yeah, could we be burned by letting these guys go?  Sure, but that is what replacement-level players are all about.  They can easily be replaced by a minor league free agent (see Ramirez, Harold).    You have to go out on a limb sometimes to protect your prospects.   Keeping Harold Ramirez, Daniel Johnson and Oscar Mercado is taking the safe major league team way and NOT considering the future closely enough.

Roster Debate: Bullpen

Bullpens always fluctuate from year to year and guys are signed on minor league deals all the time.  So how this bullpen looks in November when the rosters are frozen is not the full story about what the bullpen will look like in April of 2022.   

One thing to consider, however.  There likely won't be much play in the roster next April as a 40-man roster spots likely will be occupied by guys who are not ready for the majors.   So what you see here might make up the relievers who will be counted on next year.

So let's look at who should keep and who we will let go:

Emmanuel Clase - Keep

James Karinchak - No choice but to keep him.

Logan Allen - Keep. They should keep him on the roster as a reliever.   I think he finds his niche there.

JC Mejia - Keep. As a sinker/slider guy and being young, he becomes a full-time reliever and claims a 40-man roster spot this winter.

Sam Hentges - Keep

Francisco Perez - KEEP - I saw enough in the majors to trust him next year.

Nick Sandlin - Keep

Trevor Stephan - Keep

Nick Wittgren -  Remove.  He has had an off-year.   Relief pitchers do that but Wittgren may and probably SHOULD be a casualty of the roster crunch this winter.   He's gone, most likely in a trade.

Bryan Shaw:  Remove, maybe re-sign to a minor league deal.  Great signing by the Indians but he should be another casualty of the roster crunch.  Bring him back on a minor league deal again but he can't take up a roster spot this winter

Blake Parker - Remove.  Re-sign to a minor leagu deal.  Ditto as with Shaw in all aspects

Justin Garza - Remove.  He was a great find this year but at 28 with a decent chance he is a one-year wonder we either have to trade or DFA him as I doubt he would be dependable as one of the top 8 next year.

Anthony Gose - Remove. Again, this is not Jim Morris time.  His minor league numbers suck and all he has is that 100 mph fastball.   He stays on the roster if this is a 1970s/1980s roster.   But not this winter.   DFA him and hope he makes it through waivers and you can re-sign him.''

Cam Hill - Remove.  He was hurt all year and his stuff is very marginal even when he is healthy. 

Scott Moss - Remove.  The one most likely to come back and bite us but he needs to be healthy.  

Kyle Nelson - Remove,  He has fallen out of favor with the Indians.  

Alex Young - Remove.  The only way he stays on the 40-man roster is as a space filler for a free agent signing.  Still, to the average fan, if we lose someone in the Rule 5 and Young is still on the roster, it will look really bad.

Summary - I am suggesting that we only keep 8 relievers on our 40-man roster.  Crazy, right?  But we need roster spots for this winter.   I am suggesting, one way or another, not bringing these 9 back.   There are arguments that you should keep all these guys but, in a roster crunch, 

Nest: On to the outfielders

Roster Debate - Middle Infielders

This is the first in a series of discussions about our roster and how it will shake out this fall.  

So let's talk about the middle infielders on the current roster:

Amed Rosario - Not much to say here.  The only way you move this guy off of shortstop is if you have someone who replaces him such that Amed at new position + new SS > Amed at SS but someone else at the other position.  For me, Rosario is the SS and is on the team (Duh!)

Andres Gimenez - Here is where it gets dicey.   Gimenez should likely be your secondbaseman next year. But his performance and body language makes me wonder if that would be acceptable to him.   I don't think there is any way we DFA him but I could see us trading him after the season if we think he is going to be a problem on the field or in the locker room if he doesn't start at SS. 

Yu Chang - Does he make this team next year?  That question is easily answered if Gimenez is the second baseman.  Chang makes an offensive infielder who can play all the IF positions and have some offense while not killing us on defense.  He has learned to be an infield role player and is finding success at it. It would also be great if he could play a little LF, too.  

Ernie Clement - His game on Tuesday was great.   Great defense, another HR.   But when you look at his resume, his whole body of work, the guy is just a gamer...and no more.  He is homegrown and I would rather have him on the team than grizzled veteran A, B or C who is signed to a minor league deal.  However, if Gimenez plays second and is successful we don't need Clement, his loss IS impactful but not as impactful as losing Jose Fermin or Johnkensy Noel or, frankly, even Konnor Pilkington.   He is a utility infielder and we have more middle infielders banging on the door to Progressive Field.  He is a guy for the 80s when our team sucked and we were grasping at straws.   He is NOT the player the contending Cleveland Indians need on their roster.  So Clement likely is traded or DFA'd.

Owen Miller - Whereas Clement is giving you all that you have and more than you thought you would get, Miller is giving you NOTHING of what you thought you would get and doing so in a frustratingly, I-am-lost-as-hell-and-I-don't-know-how-to-fix-it kinda way.  My gut says that we should keep Miller on the roster because he CAN'T be that bad.   Unfortunately, I have to keep him over Clement.   If I cut Miller after spring training or send him to Columbus to rot for the season, DFAing him when I need a roster  spot, so be it.   But, right now, he CAN'T be this bad, can he?

So, in summary, if we do the right thing for a contending team we are forced to keep Gimenez, Chang and Miller.   All can be traded later if they don't perform but, right now, the potential for each of them is much more than Clement and we need the roster space.  

Next the bullpen!

Interesting Fall Instructs List

 Looking through one of my favorite sites, Indians Prospective, and I found a list on invites for the fall instructional league.

Normally the Indians' roster for this league is made up of the following 4 types of players:

1. Players drafted in the most recent amateur draft
2. Prospects who have been injured most or all of the season trying to play catchup.  
3. Latin prospects from the Dominican and AZL teams who they want to be ready to be assigned to a full-season team the next year.
4. Guys they intend to send to the Arizona Fall League and they just want them ready for whatever they will be doing in that league (e.g., a position change)

The list had the usual guys like Gavin Williams and all his fellow 2021 draftees except for 2021 college pitching draftees who pitched extensively in the minors in2021.  Guys like Matt Turner who essentially missed all the season.

But then the surprises:  Brayan Rocchio, Johnkensy Noel, Angel Martinez, Steve Kwan, George Valera, Bryan Lavastida

None of them need extra at bats as they each played a lot of games this year (only Noel missed any significant time).  Most of them have already been trained at multiple positions so I doubt that any of them are playing learning new positions this fall.   

Could some or all of them be transitioning to the Arizona Fall League after the instructs?   Maybe, but they just don't fit the profile of guys the Indians have historically sent to that league.   The Indians also have to send 1-2 pitchers to the AFL and I don't see any other pitchers on this list who I thought might be there like Cody Morris, Adam Scott and Joey Cantillo.

My guess is that, since every one of these guys has to be rostered or exposed to the Rule 5 draft that one of two things is happening.

1. We want our larger minor league staff to get a look at them to see if they are deserving of a 30-man roster spot or
2. We are auditioning these players to trade them before the rosters are frozen in November for a ML-ready prospect or young major leaguer who can help us in 2022 and going forward.

The two guys who are missing, both of whom I think are on the Rule 5 bubble, are Jose Fermin and Alexfri Planaz.  

I don't really know what is going on but this is unusual so it begs conjecture.   

One caution I will make to the Indians.  The year Hector Rondon was lost in the Rule 5 he missed almost the who year.  He then played in one of the Latin winter leagues after the 40-man rosters were set and lit up that league, leading to his Rule 5 stock going through the roof and him being drafted by the Cubs.  

So, if the Indians are going to further expose the talents of these guys and they don't trade them before the roster setting or don't roster them, all they will be doing will be making the job of opposing scouts and GMs easier as to whether they want to pick these guys in the Rule 5 draft.  Just like with Rondon.

It's Tuesday, let's talk baseball!

 First, it does my heart good to read an article that talks about the White Sox replacing Cesar Hernandez during the playoffs because he isn't performing to the level they thought he should...after they stole him from the Indians at the deadline.   Well White Sox fans, let's just say that you're getting about what you paid for.  Konnor Pilkington is worth just about as much sa the September version of Hernandez.   All that being said, Hernandez is EXACTLY the type of professional who can turn around a mediocre season in the post-season.   My prediction is he will and the Sox fans will be happy...and I will still be pissed that we gave Hernandez away for a guy we may not even protect from the Rule 5 draft.

Eddie Rosario hit for the cycle the other day.  Still liking that trade more than than the Hernandez trade because Battenfield has better stuff and isn't Rule 5-eligible.

The Anthony Gose story is a great one and it gives me goosbumps just thinking about it.   I am really pissed they chose to bring him into the second game rather than pitch after the first game was out of reach.   I imagine they saved him for the bullpen, second game because he could go more than one inning.   Still, the goal is to win games and Hentges in the second game gave us a better chance to win.   Gose should have gotten his moment in the sun in a blowout, not in a winnable game where he gave up an important run.

That being said, here is the reality about Gose.  He is the kind of guy who, 100 mph fastball notwithstanding, should be a minor league invitee to spring training with a good chance to make the team.  Hey, the guy is Jim Morris Part Deux.  We don't want to be the 55-106 2002 Rays who could afford to have a feel-good story to bring in some crowd interest.  So while Gose is a feel-good story, can we really spend a roster spot on him this winter and risk losing a guy like Jose Tena or Oscar Gonzalez, or even a lesser prospect, in the Rule 5 draft if we protect Gose.   No, if we don't make trades, there is no room on this winter's roster for Gose.   Next season's 26-man roster?  More of a chance actually.   So Gose should enjoy the rest of this month and use it as a springboard when he is DFA'd after the season to re-sign to a minor league deal with a spring invite (after the Rule 5, wink!) with the team that gave him this chance.

I saw where Ka-ai Tom was released by Pittsburgh.   They offered him back to the Indians but, not surprisingly, the Indians didn't take him back because of their roster crunch.   They may re-sign him this winter but now is not the time as he would have to be rostered (not warranted after this season) or exposed to the Rule 5 draft again.

Now to the Indians.   As I said yesterday: 73-74 with 15 games to go and only 4 games against teams with a winning record.   No way we don't end the season with a winning record.  One day later we have already lost two against a losing team.   If this team tanks it through the end of the season Demarlo Hale should never get another major league managing opportunity.   WInning organizations don't tolerate tanking at the end of the season, especially when your roster is a veteran one.   Time to make the boys win, Dermarlo,  Right now, to me, it looks like you have lost this club house.   Prove me wrong.  Please! 

Thoughts for a Sunday

 Baseball doesn't get much better than the Indians embarassing the Yankees in a series in New York.   Highlights from today:

• The Indians ducksnorted the Yankees to death.   Ahhh, nothing pisses off fans of a money-rich, high expectations team than to be whipped into submission with a wet noodle.
• The Yankees fans booing Gerrit Cole as he leaves the mound.   Really, Gerrit, what the perfect time for a thumbs down and you let the moment go by.  
• The Yankees being beaten by a guy who came into the game with a 2-7 record and an atrocious ERA over 5 for the season.   As someone said, today's game with a matchup between a Cy Young candidate and a guy who pitched like one.  Good on ya, Eli!
• Finally, the icing on the cake was Trevor Stephan, a Rule 5 pick from the Yankees, coming in to strike out the side.   Yankees fans on the edge of insanity by what went on today were likely pushed over the edge with this salting of their wounds.   Gotta love it if you are a Tribe fan!

As if that was not enough, the Rubberducks eliminated Somerset, the Yankees AA team, from the playoffs with a come-from-behind win.   Jose Fermin adding to his case of being rostered this winter with a game-tying 3-run HR in the 8th followed by a George Valera 17-hopper through the left side to beat the shift and drive in the go-ahead run.  Didn't try to do too much, didn't try to hit it out of the park, just got the job done.  Are you watching Andres Gimenez?

I have to admit that, even with things that I had to get done, I spent my afternoon and savored every pitch of the Indians game.   It was just the tonic I needed heading into another week.

Now, all that being said, the Indians are now 73-74.   Thus they are one game under .500 with 15 games left to play.    They have 4 games against the White Sox and 11 games against the Royals and Rangers.  That's right, 11 games against teams with losing records and 4 games against teams with winning records.  Baseball is a crazy thing and anything can happen (look at today!).   However, the Indians should feel some pressure and gird their loins to push to the end of this season as they have a good chance to finish this year with a winning record.   They are not just playing out the season, they are playing for the pride of having the best record possible.  This is a team that has been here all year, not a bunch of September callups with wide eyes.   They can end the season with a push that will get them into next year and I hope they can take advantage of these last two weeks.   

For one of the last times we will be able to say it.  Go Tribe!  (and go Rubberducks!).

Baseball Rule 5 History - Last 10 years - Part 2

 There are two key questions regarding the Rule 5:

How many players do teams lose?

What do the eventual careers look like for these players?

After all, if teams are losing players who are below replacement level, what does it matter?  Right?

So let's look, in the last 10 years, how many players have made a difference with their new teams or later in their career, or both.   

I will rate these guys in 4 categories: No impact (cup of coffee, maybe some potential for the future); some impact (a few years in the majors as say a middle reliever or utility infielder/outfielder), low- or high-medium impact (trending toward good long-term impact) or long career (starter level performance touching all-star level or higher).  I excluded the 12 players drafted in 2020 because we don't have enough information on how they will turn out although for guys like Trevor Stephan and Akil Badoo, there is potential

In my non-scientific, non-analytics view, here is what I found when looking at the 56 of 127 players drafted in the Rule 5 in 2011-2019 who were kept by their drafting team:

Long career or high-medium impact: 7 (Marwin Gonzalez, Mark Canha, Odubel Herrera, Ryan Pressley, Anthony Santander, Hector Rondon and TJ McFarland)

Low medium impact: 8

some impact: 14

no impact: 27

SUMMARY

About 50% of the players kept by teams after the Rule 5 (25% of all players drafted) had some or large impact on the team that drafted them or their subsequent team(s).  Seven (7) had significant impact with 3 of the 6 Indians' prospects drafted before 2020 but after 2010 falling into that significant impact group.

So, what did we learn from this?  Teams tend not to protect guys in their low minors (e.g., Anthony Santander) because they think they won't get selected because they are too far from the majors.   Sometimes teams have roster crunches which make them more inclined to try to not protect prospects who won't be truly ready to help them the next season (e.g., low minors guys, quality prospects coming off injuries, one-tool (e.g., 100 mph fastball but no other redeeming value like Juan Mota this year) guys.  Anecdotally it has happened in the past (e.g., Hector Rondon) where a guy was having a great fall/winter season and teams didn't take that into account when they were deciding whether to protect a guy or not.

Sometimes teams have every reason to think a guy won't stick with another team (see TJ McFarland for example).  The new team can have patience with them because they are rebuilding whereas the team that doesn't protect that player sees them as being someone who is not going to hit cleanup or leadoff or close games or be a #3 starter for years, or maybe ever.   Like the amateur draft sometimes teams just whiff (e.g., Albert Pujols when he was drafted and even Shane Beiber and Corbin Burnes, if you want to look at first round talent who went later in the draft and then just developed in the minors.

Judging talent is not an exact science.   However, if the choice exists  to roster a prospect who won't be ready in 2022 or gamble to not protect him because you have to keep enough ML ready guys on your 40 man roster to field a ML team next year or leave roster spots to sign low- to mid-level free agents or minor league signee guys (e.g. Bryan Shaw) to keep your team having an outside shot of being a wildcard team next year, THAT is where you can really get burned long term.   This is especially true with franchises who have low payrolls and count on pre-arbitration year salaries to keep that payroll down.

That's it for now on the 40-man roster/Rule 5 topic.   After the season we will break down the 40 man roster to see who should be traded, DFA'd or just released.   Until then I will post on other topics related to the major leagues and our minor league prospects.

Baseball Rule 5 History - Last 10 Years - Part 1

To continue on the theme of the 40 man roster crunch this winter, here are some stats from around baseball to consider over the past 10 years of the MAJOR LEAGUE Rule 5 drafts:

MOST PLAYERS LOST BY A TEAM

Minnesota - 5 of 7 players drafted in the ML portion of the draft were lost.  2 were returned.

Cleveland - 5 of 9  

Tampa Bay - 5 of 9

Houston - 5 of 11

New York Yankees - 5 of 16 

MOST PLAYERS DRAFTED FROM A TEAM 

New York Yankees - 16

Houston - 11

Cleveland - 9

Chicago Cubs - 9

Tampa Bay - 9

MOST PLAYERS DRAFTED BY A TEAM

Baltimore - 15

Philadelphia - 10

Arizona - 8

Miami - 8

FEWEST PLAYERS DRAFTED BY A TEAM (NUMBER THEY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO KEEP ON THEIR ROSTER)

Los Angeles Dodgers - 0 (0)

Washington - 1(0)

Tampa Bay - 1 (0)

St. Louis - 2 (1)

Cleveland - 3 (1)

ANALYSIS 

Cleveland tied for the most players lost in the Rule 5 over the last 10 years (5) and was near the top in most players drafted (9).   They were near the bottom in players that they drafted actually keeping (1 - Trevor Stephan this year).  Note that the Yankees had a bunch of players drafted (16) but the 3rd lowest rate (5/16) in baseball of actually losing players drafted from them (only TB 0/4 and Washington 1/6 had lower percentages).

In Part 2 we will look at the impact of the players teams lost, which is also part of the equation to determine whether teams are being hurt or helped by the Rule 5 draft.

Cleveland Indian Rule 5 History

 2020 - Lost: Ka'ai Tom, Luis Oviedo; Gained:Trevor Stephen

2019 - Lost: None; Gained: None

2018 - Lost: Kyle Dowdy (later returned);  Gained: None

2017 - Lost: Jordan Milbrath (later returned); Gained: None

2016 - Lost: Anthony Santander; Gained: None

2015 - Lost: Josh Martin (later returned); Gained: None

2014 - Lost: None; Gained: None

2013 - Lost: None; Gained: None

2012 - Lost: Hector Rondon, TJ McFarland; Gained: Chris McGuiness (later returned)

2011 - Lost: No one; Gained: No one

So, in the last 10 years we lost FIVE guys who wound up staying with the club who drafted them.   THREE of them have had successful ML careers so far and the others were just in their first year in the majors this year.

Each and every one of those years we haggled about 1-2, maybe 3 players who were targets and I was seldom correct (except for Hector Rondon).   Still, that's the point.  It was 1-2 players who we thought might have a chance to be drafted.   Depending on how the 40-man roster situation plays out, we could be looking at 8-10 prospects and most of them will be better than any prospect who we lost in this draft in the last 10 years.  

IT'S TIME TO TAKE A STAND!

OK, after substantial research I have now come to grips with something that I had not considered previously.

THE PLAYER DEVELOPMENT RULES IN MLB ARE SERIOUSLY FLAWED AND THAT WAS EXACERBATED BY 2020.  

In brief, here are the issues:

• Latin amateur free agents generally sign when they are 16.   That signing period, up to last year, started on July 1st.  
• If they sign on July 1st or anytime up to around Sept. 1st, they have to be assigned to a team that year even though they don't really start playing until the following year
• Baseball's Rule 5 draft rules say that if you are less than 19 years old when you sign your first contract you have 5 years of development before you would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft.  It is 4 years for guys who are signed after they turn 19.   Again, the Rule 5 'clock' starts the year they are drafted as they have to sign before the minor leagues end play that year.   
• While there are rules for US HS kids (under 19) and college-age kids (over 19), the 16 year old Latin kids are lumped in with the 18 year old HS kids, the latter having been exposed to traveling teams and, in a lot of cases, to the showcase circuit and for a select few, to youth national team coaches.

In summary, the Rule 5 rules assume that the development (emotionally, physically and professionally) for 16 year old Latin kids playing in another country is identical to that of 18 year old HS kids who are playing in their own country.

That just is not fair for these young Latin kids.   One way to think about it is that a good number of these HS kids who are drafted every year didn't even start on their HS teams as 16 year old sophomores whereas the Latin kids are playing professionally.  Should they be placed on the same Rule 5 clock?  Absolutely not.

Now, on top of the standard lack of fairness that Latin kids and the teams that sign them have to live with, the fact that even though there were no minor leagues last year, the Rule 5 clock for minor leaguers was allowed to keep going.   

So, an unfair system became more unfair.     

And that is what will likely have a huge impact on the Indians this off-season.   

So, here is the thing:

 MLB, right now, even ahead of the labor negotiations this year, needs to not count 2020 on any prospect's Rule 5 clock.   

They should have done that already as I am sure teams have made trades (e.g., the Indians trading Yainer Diaz to the Astros) knowing they won't be able to protect a player this winter and may lose them for little or no return if they didn't trade them now.

However, there is still time to do it ahead of this year's freezing of the 40 man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 draft.

For teams like Cleveland, their lifeblood is player development.   They can't, like the Dodgers, Yankees and other big market teams, buy their way out of bad player development.   Exposing guys who have lost a year of development, especially the then 16-year old international free agent class of 2017 (Valera, Tena, Noel, Rocchio, Planez) to the Rule 5 based on a flawed system exacerbated by a global pandemic that wasn't addressed at all by MLB really helps to keep the disparity between the haves and have nots in baseball.   

This isn't right.   MLB needs to address this now and, then, in turn, change the rules so players who have not graduated from HS at the time they are signed (i.e., Latin amateur free agents) get an extra year of protection from the Rule 5.  

It's getting more complicated by the day but there may be a little light at the end of the tunnel.

 Let's talk about the 40 man roster situation again.    

• Steven Kwan is ripping the cover off the ball at AAA after he hit about .340 at AA.   He is Ka'ai Tom 2.0 (short outfielder without great power who can hit and hit and hit and plays OK defense).   We already have Mercado and Johnson, both of whom are coming alive.   
• Oscar Gonzalez is launching HRs like crazy.   The thing with Oscar is that he walks at way too low a rate (79 times in 1963 ABs), which as the theory goes, will make him easy prey for refined ML pitchers.   I also am not sure he can turn around 97+ mph fastballs.
• Jose Fermin's AAA production might make him attractive to some team in the Rule 5 as they can stash him as a utility infielder.
• Andruw Monasterio and Connor Marabell are hitting well at AAA.  While they are under-the-radar guys whose stats could be attributed to their maturity and experience at higher levels in the minor leagues, they are elbowing their way into the thought process that they might, eventually, be ML players.  

Of these guys only Gonzalez was in my thought process about who we should consider protecting from the Rule 5.    But these other guys, especially Kwan, are making a case for themselves.   It presents a problem.   When you are the Cleveland Indians the potential loss of a prospect for little tangible return because you have other, more talented prospects is never 'good problem to have'.  

So the beat goes on relative to having too many borderline major leaguers currently on the 40-man and too many prospects to protect ahead of this year's Rule 5 draft.

A couple of more points:

• Teams are allowed to make trades now if the guys traded are not currently on their 40-man rosters.  These minor league deals seem very appealing to me right now if we think that guys like Daniel Johnson, Justin Garza and Francisco Perez will be on our roster next year.
• In the research I have done I see no reason why ANY of the guys from our 2017 international free agent class would be eligible for the Rule 5 this year.   So guys like Jose Tena, George Valera, Brayan Rocchio, Johnkensy Noel and Alexfri Planaz, among others, should still be protected from the Rule 5 for another year.   That is not what is being reported but I am pretty sure, if I understand the rules, that these guys are not eligible (signed before they were 19 years old, not assigned to a team until 2018).   They all have only 4 seasons of minor league experience meaning they have another one to go before they are eligible.   As I said, I have reached out to a number of experts who I hope will confirm what I am thinking.