Hot Off The Presses: Pottery Barn Sues PETA

If ONLY this was April 1st I could write this article:

San Francisco, CA - Today lawyers for Pottery Barn filed a lawsuit against PETA (People for Ethical Treatment of Animals) for infringement of Pottery Barn's copyrights.   The lawsuit stated that the use of the term "Arms Barn" in PETA's campaign to stop baseball teams from using the word "bullpen" was a violation of their copyrights and was doing irreparable damage to their business.   

Pottery Barn, in their press release said that the use of the phrase "Arms Barn" was likely to cause them significant loss of sales due to the negative impression it is leaving on their customers.  "Our company has received over 1000 phone calls today alone from customers who said it was disgusting and that they wouldn't come into a store that had 'arms hanging from the ceiling or shelves of arm'" said spokesperson Seramique Potts. 

In a related event, SAOT (Share An Organ Today) decried use of the term "Arms Barn".  In its own release CEO Frank N. Stein said "Organ transplantation is, in many cases, a life-saving procedure.  The frivolous use of the phrase "Arms Barn" demeans every legitimate organization that helps match people with organs."

Meanwhile, sports orthopedists across the country have been beseiged by calls from former major league pitchers asking if the "Arms Barn" was a thing and whether there was an outlet in their area.  One orthopedist who requested anonymity said the he had received 15 calls from Bartolo Colon in one day asking where he should go to pick out a new arm.

The MLPAA (Major League Pitchers Association of America) also spoke out against PETA's proposal stating "Major league pitchers are fine-tuned athletes who have spent, in many cases, most of their lives developing their craft.  To characterize that they are kept in a barn is demeaning to them as professional athletes" The release went on to say "To characterize a human being by a part of their anatomy marginalizes them.   Pitchers are more than their arms.   They are people with families and dreams and, like all humans, deserve to be treated with respect."

TPC (The Prosthetic Collective) also added their voice in opposition to PETA's proposal.  In a video on their website CEO Miles Bennet, stated: "Prosthetics are important to help men, women and children who have lost limbs maintain their independence and worth and our company is making great breakthroughs in prosthetic technology every day.  To suggest that you can buy prosthetic arms at an outlet store is offensive to all the prosthetic manufacturers and the surgeons and physical therapists who every day are really helping people who need prosthetics."  

We reached out to PETA for comment on this outcry against their proposal but, so far, have not received a response.

In a typical year...

In a typical year

 ...those of us who worry about the Rule 5 draft would be worried about having to expose SOME of these guys to the Rule 5 and possibly losing one or more of them:

Juan Mota - 100+ fastball
Steven Kwan - 300+ hitter at AA/AAA and can catch the ball.
Marcos Gonzalez - 'hidden' as a reserve at AA, he has a good chance to break out this coming year
Jose Fermin - .290 hitter for his career with SS skills and infield versatility, mastered AA.
Adam Scott - lefty who can go multiple innings, way under-the-radar prospect who could fit well for a rebuilding team that plans to use openers and is looking for multiple innings guys to open or bridge to the late inning guys.   Think of how highly we think of Cody Morris and maybe (hard to tell yet) the only thing that separates them is that Morris came back sooner from his injury so he could show out more. 

I think that this year ALL of these guys will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft and it is likely that all but maybe Gonzalez will be drafted and, potentially lost.  That's the key, really, we are looking at 12-13 guys better or with more potential as the above guys.   In a normal year there would be 1-3 guys.   

...the subsection of the above group who worry about losing 6-year minor league free agents would hardly be worrried about anything.   This year if we don't roster Juan Hillman and Oscar Gonzalez we will likely lose them to teams that WILL roster them.  

...all fans of the Guardians would be worried about the 26 man roster will look like in 2022.  With 9 of our top 30 prospects and 6 of the top 14 having to be rostered this winter, and that doesn't include Oscar Gonzalex, Konnor Pilkington and Juan Hillman, some of us are really worried about what the 40 man will look like this winter. 

...all of the fans would be worried about what cheap free agents we might try to sign at the end of the off-season.   Some of us are, instead, seeing the writing on the wall as far as the 40 man situation, have started hypothesizing about how we could trade multiple prospects for a young major leaguer to help us in the outfield or second base.  

Updated Indians' Top Prospect List - Early Post-Season List

Eddie Rosario's Braves and Michael Brantley/Josh tomlin/Phil Maton's Astros are in the World Series. That signals that the beginning of the off-season is only 4-7 games away.  In light of that let's take a look at the Indians' updated top prospect list.  This list has been adjusted based on the results and information obtained from mid-season to now.  Where guys have slipped or risen I have included some comments.  Looking back over this year, in my opinion, the Indians farm system easily ranks in the top 10 in baseball and, realistically, probably is top 5.   I know this is a bold statement as people tend to look at the cream of teams' farm systems to make this judgement.   But when you look at the overall quality and the overall depth, this is the best Indians' farm system I have ever seen and there have been instances in the past, albeit only a few, where the Indians have been top 5.  FYI, if I was going to slot Yainer Diaz on this list he would probably slot between 26-29.  He is #13 for Houston.   Just pointing this out to point out the strength of our farm system compared to the average major league team. 

In any case, here goes the first post-season look at our top prospects:

1. Tyler Freeman 

2. George Valera
3. Daniel Espino
4. Nolan Jones
5. Gabe Arias
6. Brayan Rocchio
7. Oscar Gonzalez
8. Doug Nikhazy
9. Logan T. Allen

10. Gavin Williams - The first guy who drops for me, the video I saw of Williams showed me a guy who was leaving a lot of pitches up.   Remember, this is the instructs, filled with players who have barely scratched the surface of low A or US complex league teams.   Yet guys were hitting him and he wasn't dominating counts.   I see a big red flag here, but time will tell.
11. Tommy Mace
12. Jhonkensy Noel

13. Richie Palacios - Here is a guy who has moved up due to three things: his performance at Columbus, his performance in the AFL and his position versatility (INF/OF).  He still looks like a low ball hitter with his dip at the knees before he swings and this may be being taught in the minors (Tena does the same thing) so that might be easily attacked by major league pitchers. Still, he looks good against all pitching so far and is an outside candidate to make the team out of spring training unless the Indians trade for or sign an outfielder.
14. Carson Tucker
15. Angel Martinez
16. Bo Naylor
17. Jose Tena
18. Bryan Lavistida

19. Isaiah Greene
20. Ethan Hankins
21. Cody Morris

22. Juan Hillman
23. Joey Cantillo
24.  Payton Battenfield
25. Alexfri Planez
26. Luis Durango, Jr.
27. Jake Fox

28. Tanner Burns
29. Carlos Vargas
30. Gabriel Rodriguez
31. Francisco Perez

32. Petey Halpin - A big bump here because he showed lots at low A at a young age.  Don't know if this was just the result that everyone's development was depressed due to the lack of a minor league season in 2020 but, at the least, he has become really intriguing given his high draft slot and higher bonus.

33. Lenny Torres - An accidental omission from the previous list, it is hard to tell how much of this season is just recovery process from surgery last year and how much represents how limited he will be in terms of his talent.  Still, just outside the top 30 is a good place for him this off-season.
34. Angel Genao
35. Fran Alduey

36. Konnor Pilkington

37. Steven Kwan - Big jump here because of production both in Columbus and in the instructs.   He still looks like a AAAA outfielder to me as he is a tweener in every sense of the word.   I see him as a prime candidate not to be rostered and, if that happens, a potential #1 overall selection in the Rule 5 draft.

38. Will Benson  - It is starting to look more like Benson will be a AAAA player.   Still, if he survives this Rule 5 draft there is still an outside chance that he could go all Oscar Gonzalez on us in 2022.

39. Xzavion Curry - Big jump here just because others have stumbled.

40. Milan Tolentino - A big jump here as he showed more power than a young middle infielder in rookie ball should.   If power is the last tool to develop, I can't wait to see how this kid ends up!
41. Justin Garza
42. Scott Moss
43.  Nick Mikolajchak
44. Jose Pestrano
45. Josh Wolf
46. Jerson Ramirez
47. Tanner Bibee

49. Juan Mota - Another guy who didn't move much from the mid-season rankings but, with his 100 mph fastball, a guy who is a prime Rule 5 pick.
50. Jonathon Rodriguez

51. Will Brennan - Against my better judgement I moved him up a little.   The mirage that is older guys playing against younger competition in the low- to mid-minors has been seen time and time again in subsequent years for those players.  Still, let's give him one more year to see if his performance sticks and if he can go all Steven Kwan on us.

52. Kirk McCarty
53. Trenton Brooks
54. Aaron Braccho
53. Cam Hill
55. Jose Fermin
56. Junior Sanquintin

57. Marcos Gonzalez - A slight bump for him as, although he was a backup, he is only slightly removed from being a top prospect and like Naylor, was really pushed for his age to a level he would struggle at.  Gonzalez is my pick as one of the breakout candidates next year, if he survives this off-season as a member of the Indians.

58. Andruw Monasterio

59. Hunter Gaddis
60. Ryan Webb

61. Tanner Tully
62. Robert Broom
63.  Mason Hickman

64. Dayan Frias - A guy I don't want to totally sleep on, he is a long shot who is Rule 5 eligible this winter and has barely scratched low A but if he is with the organization next spring, is a guy who could really jump, maybe ending the year raking in AA with a good chance to make the roster next winter.
65. Dakody Clemmer

66. Kevin Kelly
67. Jack Leftwich
68. Rodney Boone
69. Yordys Valdez
70. Christian Cairo
71. Conner Kokx
72. Adam Scott - He didn't move much from the mid-season report but I still wanted to highlight him.   He has no chance to make the 40-man this winter but does have a decent chance to be selected in the Rule 5 as a lefty who can give some length, especially in this area of openers...even in the playoffs, for gosh sakes!
73. Aaron Pinto
74. Joe Naranjo

75. Tim Herrin
76. Thomas Ponticelli
77. Trenton Denholm

78. Matt Turner - Appearing on this list a first time just because of his pedigree and that the Indians thought enough of hisneed for development to have him in the AFL where his talents would be showcased as a potential Rule 5 pick (either major or minor league portions) later this fall.
79. Connor Marabell
80. Alex Call
81. Shane McCarthy
82. Skylar Arias
83. Nic Enright

84. Andrew Misiaszek
85. Will Bartlett
86. Zach Hart
87. Jamie Arias-Bautista
88. Quentin Holmes
89. Richard Polanco
90. Robert Lopez
91. Yefri Rivera
92. Franco Aleman
93.  Will Dion
94. Korey Holland
95. Hunter Stanley
96. Zach Pettway
97. Raymond Burgos
98. Aaron Davenport

99. Mike Rivera

100. Damon Casetta-Stubbs

How did we do at the trade deadline

 Let's take a statistical look at how we did at the trade deadline.

Hernandez for Pilkington:

Hernandez: post-trade regular season:  .232 BA/.608 OPS

Hernandez: post-season: .286 BA/ .831 OPS

Analysis: The White Sox got 1.5 years of a reasonably priced solid second baseman,   He wasn't as good as he was in Cleveland but the Sox thought enough of his value to trade Madrigal to help get Kimbrel.  Pilkington has potential but having to protect a guy who isn't even one of our top 30 prospects this off-season is a problem.   My fear is that they will protect him to justify the Hernandez trade, resulting in a much more quality prospect being left exposed to the Rule 5 or given away for peanuts in some trade.

Rosario for Sandoval:

Rosario: Regular season: .271 BA/ .903 OPS

Rosario: Post-season so far: .409 BA/ .874 OPS, one game-winning hit

Analysis: A salary dump this is paying dividends, BIG dividends for Braves.  This should have been a PTBNL or cash trade.   Instead, we end up paying Sandoval, releasing him, and getting nothing.   The FO should have tied this to a performance-based criteria.  Yes we take Sandoval but we get our choice of minor leaguers if Rosario makes an impact.  

Straw for Maton and Yainer Diaz

Maton: Regular season: 4-0, 4.97 ERA

Maton: Postseason: 5.1 ip, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

Diaz: Regular season: low A: .229 BA, .557 OPS; High A: .396 BA, 1,219 OPS

Analysis:  A clear win for the Indians getting a true CFer to stabilize their outfield.    Houston feels better about themselves because Maton has done OK for them and they have his rights for another couple of seasons.   Diaz would never have been protected by the Indians.  We just had too many prospects ahead of him.   However, his 11 HR in 98 ABs after being promoted to High A is really eye-popping.  The best thing besides Straw to come out of this trade for the Indians is the realization, if they actually realize it, of how strong our farm system is.   Diaz would not have made our top 30 prospects and he is currently #13 for the Astros after his end-of-season splurge.  This should solidify for the Indians what they need to do this off-season: Either protect their prospects from the Rule 5 or value them well in trades and not just overpay in prospects in a trade because we have so many to protect.

Jordan Luplow and DJ Johnson for Peyton Battenfield

Luplow: Regular season: .246 BA, .796 OPS

Luplow: Post-season: .286 BA, .857 OPS, 1 grand slam

Johnson: 2,2 innings, 0 runs.   Currently on 60-day DL

Analysis: Each team got what they wanted in this trade.   Considering that Luplow was on the DL and Johnson was a throw-in, the Indians did well to get Battenfield and the Rays did well to get their guy, a lefty killer who they have under control through 2027.  Battenfield won't be eligible for the Rule 5 until after 2022.   Given that he was successful at AA, unless he gets hurt next year the Indians will get a good look at him in the high minors next year to see if he is worth protecting next winter.   He might even get a callup to the majors next year if he performs well.

So, the Indians had a mixed bag.   Straw and Battenfield help us now and the future and the guys we gave up likely we would have DFA'd this winter.   So, overall, I give the Indians a plus for their trades, given all the unfortunate circumstances with Rosario around the trade deadline.   

How much would you trade for this guy?

 Juan Soto

Pipe dream?  The talk around the hot stove so far for the Indians involves two things:

(1) The upcoming roster crunch 

and

(2) The need for outfield help

I know.  Why would the Nationals trade maybe the best outfielder not named Mike Trout?

(1) By the time the Nationals are competitive again Soto will be a free agent

and 

(2) They need to improve one of the worst farm systems in baseball to work out of the abyss they have created with all these trades and a bad farm system.

The Indians have good enough prospects to make this work.   How about:

Tyler Freeman, George Valera, Steven Kwan, Juan Mota and Ernie Clement

or

Tyler Freeman, Nolan Jones,  Steven Kwan, Joey Cantillo and Carlos Vargas

or

Nolan Jones, Daniel Espino and Jose Tena

The packages the Indians could put together are endless.   

A healthy Soto in RF turns this lineup on its ear.   Just adding one player gives us enougth, with our starting pitching, to be competitive in the AL Central, assuming reasonable health all around.

Washington will require a lot for Soto as he trading him will be a big key to their rebuild.

The Indians need to make this trade and sign this free agent

 Ok, it's the off-season  and I could begin this post with a know a guy who knows a guy who heard the Indians were talking to this team about a guy, but that would not be true.  

So, let's jump in with a question:

What would it cost the Indians to trade for Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez?

Now, undestanding that these guys are starting on the downhill slide of their prime and Perez is a below average catcher with a low walk rate coming off a caree year, this is the kind of trade that the Indians' fans want.

So, how much would it cost the Tribe?

For me, the only guys who would be untouchable would be Jonkensy Noel, Triston McKenzie and, of course, Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes, Myles Straw, Amed Rosario, Emmanuel Clase and the rest of our starting rotation.   

Every other prospect in our farm system is in play. 

So what would it take to get those two guys from the Royals?

How about this package: Bobby Bradley, Bo Naylor, Nolan Jones, George Valera and Trevor Stephan

That is a steep price to pay here as Valera could be in the majors this year.   But I think it would be exactly what the Royals need as I don't know if they will be competitive yet when Merrifield hits free agency after 2023.   Salvador Perez will also be 34 by then so he might be on the backside of his career at that point.  We would also have to get Carlos Santana to play 1B but I don't think the Royals would object.

Then we sign Mark Canha

Cleveland fans want to win now and this would certainly enhance that as we are looking at lineup of:

Merrifield 2B

Straw CF

Ramirez 3B

Salvador Perez C

Reyes DH

Canha RF

Amed Rosario LF

Carlos Santana 1B

Andres Gimenez SS

Bench: Zimmer, Hedges, Chang, Miller

With our rotation, that would be a killer lineup.

Would I do this?   I don't think I would but I am a prospect-first guy.   Still, this addresses our lineup issues and helps clear space on the 40-man.  The way the farm system is set up right now our next wave of prospects coming up are position players.   About the time our pitchers are matriculating to free agency the next crop from the 2019-2021 drafts will be ready for the majors.   If we draft and trade appropriately, our next wave of position players will hit after that and so on.  

Revisiting the Rule 5 Draft - A dinosaur that should be placed in a museum and the path forward

 Here are some 'facts' that need to be checked but which I believe will be found to be true:

• The Rule 5 draft does very little of what it was intended to do. 
• Only 7 of 127 players selected in this draft between 2011 and 2019 have become impactful major leaguers.
• Only 56 of those 127 even were good enough to stick with their new team.  
• 27 of the 56 that stuck had no impact at all in the majors and many never played in the majors again.
• Due to the Rule 5, teams roster prospects long before they should just so they don't lose them.  The upshot of this is that these players start to burn up their 3 options long before they are even good enough to stick in the majors
• My experience tells me that if a good, solid study was done we would find that, on average, being selected in the Rule 5 draft is actually detrimental to a player's development and may actually hurt that player's chances to stick long-term in the majors.  is 

As I understand it, the Rule 5 draft and the 6-year minor league free agent rules were put in place to keep teams, usually the rich teams, from stockpiling talent in the minors.  Instead, the reverse is happening.   The smaller budget and the rebuilding franchises, that are actually supposed to be helped by these rules are being hurt by them.

The Rule 5 draft is bad and I hope Major League Baseball will eliminate it before the rosters have to be set this winter.

Here is how we replace it with a system that makes sense.

• For players signed before their 19th birthday they can become minor league free agents if they are not placed on their team's 40-man roster before the first December after their 24th birthday
• High school draftees will become minor league free agents EXACTLY when they would under the old system
• Latin American players, many of whom sign when they are 16 or 17 will get an extra 2 or 1 years, respectively, to develop before they are allowed to become free agents.   
• For players signed after their 19th birthday, they will become minor league free agents if they are not placed on a team's 40-man roster before the first December after their 25th birthday.
• Most of these are college players and they will get to minor league free agency a little before they did in the past, depending on if they signed when they were 19 or if they signed when they were 22.  This is a benefit for these players as they can get their freedom sooner than they would under the old system, in some cases.
• No player is allowed to have more than 3 minor league options once they have been added to the 40-man roster.

Thinking about how this will impact these guys in terms of making it to another organization, here is what we have:

• Latin signees and high school draftees, at the worst (full minor league career and 3 option years after being put on the 40-man) will have to be kept in the majors or DFA'd by the time they are 27 years old.   
• College players will reach that threshhold when the are 28.

For the college and high school draftees that will, essentially, not change from the current6-year minor league free agent rule.  For Latin kids, they will have 2 more years or so to develop.

How will this impact these minor leaguers

• The better prospects will have more time to develop
• The guys who turn out to not be good prospects will be released, probably about the same time they are released now. 
• Kids will still get the opportunity to move to another organization while they are still relatively young.

In summary, the goal of the Rule 5 and 6 year minor league free agent rules was to help the "have not" teams compete with the rich teams with deep pockets.   It isn't working and my plan above, or a similar plan, is needed to level the player development playing field and allow the weaker franchises to compete as they should do best: by signing and developing young, inexpensive players.

It's all about planning - way too early look at the Indians 2022 Rule 5 eligible players

 One way or another, the Indians 2021 roster crunch is going to have ripple effects for 2022, 2023 and 2024.   So let's take a way-too-early look at the top prospects who will be eligible.

HOLDOVERS - You have to start here.   Look at Oscar Gonzalez this year.   If you wait long enough guys develop.   So when I talk about not protecting Juan Mota, Jose Fermin, Steven Kwan, Aaron Bracho, the under-the-radar Marcos Gonzalez and others this December, those guys could easily turn out to be on the top of the list for guys we want to protect next winter...if they aren't selected this winter and kept by other teams.  This also applies to guys who flew under the radar in this year's Rule 5 but, with a breakout season next year, could move to near the top of the "protect" list, as well.   Most of the latter group will be relievers, in my opinion, but time will tell.

NEWLY ELIGIBLE GUYS -

2019 COLLEGE DRAFTEES:

Peyton Battenfield 

Xzavion Curry

Hunter Gaddis

Will Brennan

2018 HIGH SCHOOL DRAFTEES

Bo Naylor

Ethan Hankins

Lenny Torres

Raynel Delgado

Korey Hooland

2018 INTERNATIONAL AMATEUR SIGNEES

Gabriel Rodriguez

Junion Sanquintin

Angel Martinez

Dayan Frias

INSTANT ANALYSIS

Right off this list, assuming no injuries, the locks to be protected next year are Bo Naylor and Peyton Battenfield.   

After that, as with all prospects, there are a lot of ifs.

Gabriel Rodriguez would seem to be a lock, as well, but struggled at low A ball, albeit as a very young player.  He is a top-rated prospect and I see very few scenarios where they don't protect him but he needs to break out next year as he projects to only get a taste of AA next year, at best, given his current development.

Angel Martinez faded seriously down the stretch but he has everything you look for in a middle infield prospect.   However, to put it in perspective at Jose Fermin's first year of eligibility he was raking pretty well at AA.   Martinez was putting up good numbers at low A.  So, you see where I am going with this.

I am going to lump together Ethan Hankins and Lenny Torres.   Torres was coming off TJ surgery this year and, not surprisingly, struggled with command.   Hankins is facing the same thing in 2022 after his TJ surgery before the season this year.   These are things that drive me crazy as with a season in 2020 these guys who likely will start in low A could already be in high A poised to be in AA or, even, in AA to start 2022 and the Guardians would be getting a much better read on whether to roster them after 2022.

The sleepers in this group are Junior Sanquintin and Dayan Frias.   Sanquintin was a highly touted signing in 2018 but never got out of the ACL this year and, while he performed well, he didn't dominate.  Frias did well but, at the same level.  When you consider how Martinez and Rodriguez did at a level higher you can see that Sanquintin and Frias have a lot of catching up to do.  

So, right now it looks like rostering players will not be as big a challenge after 2022 as I only see 13 players who, right now, even have a chance to be rostered and, realistically, that number is likely to be 6.  It could be 7 or 8 if one or both of Torres and Hankins explodes on the scene but that is a big if.

Welcome to the new!

 A.  By the time the Cleveland Guardians play their first game next year I think four things will be true:

1. The starting lineup will look almost the same as it did this year, except that we will likely have one or two rookies in it.  

2. The rotation will, barring injury, be exactly the same as it was ending this year

3. bench and the bullpen will be changed pretty significantly from what they were on Opening Day 2021. It will be filled with more rookies and less veterans.

4.  The payroll will be higher but mostly because guys will be going to arbitration.

B. It's always better to win your last game than lose your last game of the season.  That being said, it looks like these things will be true, as well:

1.  The Guardians will draft 16th in next year's amateur draft (15th worst record in 2012 plus inserted #12 slot for Mets not signing Kumar Rocker in 2020).

2.  The Yankees will have a new manager

3. The Yankees will have a new superstar or two.

4. The Guardians will NOT have a new superstar

5. Assuming I am still alive and lucid, the Cleveland Guardians, good or bad, will still be my favorite TV show.

In closing out the major league season, let me say this.  Thanks to whoever is responsible for bringing us Terry Francona.   He has made this franchise fun to watch because, with him as manager, this team is competitive every time it takes the field.  The front office doesn't always provide him with quality players.   The owner doesn't invest to make sure that we are more competitive on paper year-over-year.

But the son of my favorite Indians' player ever makes it fun to watch.   Let's hope he comes back to be the first manager of the Cleveland Guardians next year.  One more point about Francona.  Our last losing season before this year we wre 68-94.  We would have probably been 68-94 this year if Hale had been the manager all year.  That's what Francona means to this franchise. 

I will end this post by saying this.   When I was a kid and a young adult, the most fun I had that involved the Indians was the September callups and the hope that, that off-season, we could find enough good players from those September boys and off-season moves to make the next year interesting.   I have been blessed over much of my later years, starting in 1994, with having a team that is competitive and fun to watch.   With the players we have now and the ones on the way from the minors, my opinion is that the future looks brighter for the Cleveland Guardians than it ever did for the Cleveland Indians of my youth.  Go Guardians. 

Thoughts on comments received on the 40-man roster

 First, thanks to those of you who took the time to read and write comments.   Always appreciated.

As far as the construction of my proposed roster here was some of my thinking.

I like Steve Kwan, I really do.  But looking at how ML pitchers ate up and spit out Ka'ai Tom, it reinforces to me that you have to show one major tool and the rest average to a little above average tools to have a chance at success in the majors.  I see Kwan being Tom Part Deux.   

Regarding Andruw Monasterio, he will be a 6-year free agent this winter and we could lose him that way.  That being said, I just don't see any flash in him.   His upside is as a utility infielder with some pop and we have plenty of guys where that is their FLOOR.  Again, I risk losing him even if it is to minor league free agency.

Regarding some of the names on my roster.   Every roster should have guys who are placeholders who you would keep if someone better doesn't present themselves.   We don't have any of that.  The next level is guys who a team is intrigued by and don't want to lose for  essentially nothing.   However, if something better comes along, that team would swallow hard and, if possible, try to get those guys through waivers AFTER the Rule 5 draft.  We have a number of guys like that: Logan Allen, Juan Hillman, Anthony Gose and Bradley Zimmer.  I could even been persuaded to put JC Mejia in this group even though I think he has more potential than any of the other 4.

So, in the optimal situation we either go into ST with our current 40 man roster or we trade/DFA some or all of the 5 guys above.   Either way I am fine with it, assuming the new guys who are placed on the roster are significant short AND long-term upgrades over the guys they are replacing on the 40 man.

Regarding the 40-man roster, I and others have suggested that we make some trades before our roster is finalized this fall.   I think an under-the-radar guy who could help with that is Juan Mota.   I think packaging Mota with Hillman and Kwan miight get us a talented player back.   For me that would be a 2020 or 2021 draftee.   I would not be looking for major league help in this trade, just some roster relief and some long-term asset(s)  

One last point: If Antonnetti and Chernoff are not running thousands of trade scenarios turning their roster excess into future assets that absolutely would NOT help this year, they should be fired.   You have assets that you have to protect which leaves some major leaguers who will lose their roster spots and some minor leaguers you can't protect.  Make the most of these situations.  Do it stating Monday.

Updated 40-man roster thoughts

 Here is my latest pass at the 40-man roster for this winter.   The guys in red are new adds to the roster.

Catcher (2) - Hedges, Lavastida

Infielders (12) - Jose Ramirez, Rosario, Gimenez, Chang, Miller, Arias, Bradley, Noel, T. Freeman, Rocchio, Palaciso, Tena.

Outfield (7) - Straw, Zimmer, Reyes, Naylor, Valera, Oscar Gonzalez, Nolan Jones

Starting Pitcheers (10) - Beiber, Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, McKenzie, Eli Morgan, Cody Morris, Pilkington, Hillman, Cantillo, 

Bullpen (9) - Clase, Karinchak, L. Allen, Mejia, Hentges, Franciso Perez, Sandlin, Gose, Stephan

Some thoughts:

• This roster is full AND stacked.  Likely there is no 'fluff' that can be DFA'd later if you need to add someone to the roster through trade or free agency.  If you were looking for fluff on this roster all you have is Logan Allen and, as a bullpen guy, he has shown he can be solid.  While you could argue about Chang and Miller, they have both shown enough that they should be kept through next season.   Ditto for Juan Hillman.  Everyone else is a solid major leaguer or a minor leaguer with significant upside.  
• In order to get to this roster we would have to DFA or not re-sign the following guys: Mercado, Daniel Johnson, Harold Ramirez, Wittgren, Justin Garza, Shaw Parker, Cam Hill, Moss, Nelson, Alex Young, Ernie Clement and Carlos Vargas.
• Everyone on the above roster is controllable through at least 2025 except for Jose Ramirez who is controllable through 2023.  So this roster has no room to add guys until at least 2024 unless someone is DFA'd or goes on the 60 day DL.  This creates two problems (1) as we know we will have to add a backup catcher, at least, and our bullpen will have to come from the 19 pitchers on this list and (2) for 2023-2025 we have almost no roster flexibility.
• To get roster flexibility we would have to trade more people off the 40-man roster than we bring in in those trades.  To avoid DFAing some of the guys on the list above we would have to make those trades before the rosters are frozen in November for the Rule 5 draft.
• Looking at this roster, there are 3 'dead' roster spots (Tena, Cantillo, Noel) if we DFA Carlos Vargas.  A dead roster spot is one occupied by a player who has no chance of helping the major league team in 2022 and very little chance of helping in 2023.  Besides that everyone has a chance to impact the big league club in 2022 or, at the latest, by the middle of 2023.
• The following players would not be able to be protected from the Rule 5 - Kwan, Jose Fermin, Planez, Adam Scott, Andres Melendez, Juan Mota, Jerson Ramirez, Will Benson plus anyone we DFA who makes it through waivers plus many other, lower-ceiling prospects.
• Unless we get rid of guys from this stacked roster we will have no room for prospects who have to be protected ahead of the 2022 Rule 5 draft.  

By now most of the major broadcasters and a lot of fans get how serious this problem is.   But when you are talking about DFAing this many guys off your current active roster and considering losing guys like Owen Miller due to one bad year and Yu Chang when it looks like he is coming into his own, you can see the problem.   And this is a problem that you would not expect to exist on a very low payroll team without a lot of high-paid veterans on long term contracts.  

Good problem to have.   Bad problem to have to deal with.

Eliminate the Rule 5 draft!