Early season top prospects list

 The Guardians are struggling at the major league level right now so let's do what us older fans have been trained to do during the bad years of the 70s, 80s and early 90s...look at our prospects and dream.

So, after watching MiLB games every day, looking over box scores and reading about the progress of our prospects I have compiled a list.   This list only includes players who will likely retain their prospect status during the year (thus the omission of Steven Kwan but not Richie Palacios) and are currently on a full-season minor league team or in the majors likely to return to the minors without losing their prospect status.   Thus players currently in extended spring training or on the Dominican summer league team roster for the Guardians are not included.

So, here goes:

1. Daniel Espino - Here is a guy that has to be pushing the top 20 prospects in all of baseball at this point.  The only knock on him and the only reason I see him maintaining his prospect eligibility this season is that does seem to have the penchant to give up hard contact.  He needs to develop another off-speed pitch to eliminae that and, until he does, he could get hit around pretty good in the majors as we would be burning hiis pre-arbitration years without a lot of return in performance.

2. George Valera -  Breaking out of his early season slump has helped my confidence that he belongs this high.   Still, I have concerns when I watch how his swing seems to break down at times.   Lots to like about this guy but he could go all the way from all-star to bust in terms of his future development.  Now I know every prospect has that possibility but not generally one that is rated this highly.

3. Gabriel Arias - There is a long way between Espino and Arias in terms of projection.   Now, is it possible that Arias becomes Jose Ramirez Part deux?  Maybe.  However, right now, he just looks like Amed Rosario with better fielding.   Not bad but not really perennial all-star level.

4. Tyler Freeman - Looks like he is shaking off the rust a little bit and I really like him but he is a second baseman in this system.   While he will hit, will he hit to the tune of .300 BA, .370 OBP, 30 2B, 17 HR 15 SB level we would like to see from an offensive-first second baseman?  Time will tell.

5. Brayan Rocchio - His numbers don't show it but he seems to be a very polished young player.  If he can pump up the steepness of his improvement curve a little bit he could be a great addition, or trade chip, down the road.  Right now he is scuffling but I don't see it as a long-term thing.

6. Gavin Williams - OK, I am on the bandwagon.   I know he is only facing A ball hitters but he is dominating as you would expect from a guy who deserves a promotion.  When, hopefully, he gets promoted if he continues with any semblance of a 3.00 1.2 K/IP guy at AA, then we can start dreaming on his potential as a front of rotation starter.

7. Milan Tolentino - He just looks so damn good for having been drafted as a HS hitter.   He is supposed to be a defense first guy whose bat is questionable but so far, maybe it is just the opposite.  

8  Logan T. Allen - I would have had him at #4 after the first few weeks but his performance has started to level out and I think this is a good place for him.  He is in line with the stuff that Biever, Plesac and Civale have and he becomes a little more like McKenzie and Quantrill we may have another solide mid-rotation starter for years to come.

9. Jonkensey Noel - I have always liked this guy more than the scouts.  I see him as a power-hitting outfielder with some control of the strikezone.  His early season performance has been uneven but I see him picking it up in the second half of the season to put up huge numbers.

10.  Bo Naylor - He is repeating AA and so you would expect his numbers to get noticeably better than last year but he looks good at the plate.  Plus, his defense appears to be very good, at least to my eyes.

11. Oscar Gonzalez - I get that it looks like I am jumping on the bandwagon here but the guy is 24 years old.  In his first ML game he showed a plus arm, plus speed, good use of the entire field as a hitter, obviously excellent power and decent defense.  The only thing he doesn't have is the ability to take a walk and, up to this year, a too-high strikeout rate.  Three plus tools and too average tools.   This doesn't look like an after-thought prospect.  He looks really good AND he looks like he has jumped on to the steep part of his learning vs time curve and has done it with hard work.  At least that is my impression.  

12. Hunter Gaddis - Look, he shouldn't stand out from higher rated. higher drafted prospects like Nikhazy, Mace, Battenfield, Pilkington, Burns, but the guy is putting up numbers at AA and he was throwing 96-97 mph late in the game of a recent start in which he also dominated.   His height with his stuff throwing 97 mph late into a game gives him a lot of street cred with me.  

13.  Nolan Jones - We don't really know what we have with him but he could be done really soon if he doesn't start to pick it up.   Looking at his numbers he doesn't stand out.  Let's hope this is his turnaround year.  

14. Will Brennan - He gets a lot of credit from me just based on his production.  If you can hit with some gap power and play good CF defense you have a spot.

From here on out it is a crapshoot.   We have lots of good prospects but none of them stand out to me.  So the next set of guys could be ranked anywhere from 15-30 in my mind.  

Jose Tena, Angel Martinez, Tanner Burns, Bryan Lavastida, Petey Halpin, Cody Morris, Carson Tucker, Peyton Battenfield, Xzavion Curry, Ethan Hankins, Jake Fox, Isaiah Greene, Tanner Bibee, Carlos Vargas, Joey Cantillo, Tommy Mace

After that we have a number of guys who can probably have a bump in production but have yet to break out to the point where they can be considered real prospects:

Doug Nikhazy, Xzvaion Curry, Gabriel Rodriguez, Nik Mikolajchak, Will Benson, Kirk McCarty, Konor Pilkington, Josh Wolf, Lenny Torres, Dayan Frias, Jose Ferman, Luis Durango, Joe Naranjo

Plus a number of minor league relievers with good stats:

Nick Mikolajchak, Andrew Mislaszek, Nic Enright, Kevin Kelly, Ben Krauth, Tim Herrin, Will Dion, Jerson Ramirez.

Oscar Gonzalez

 Over the past couple of years I have watched Gonzalez play.   I knew we was not a highly rated prospect and I understood the reasons why.

Still, watching him this year I saw a real difference in him.   Yeah, there was the usual power and the strong arm in right field.

But some of the things that kept him from being considered an elite prospect seemed to be disappearing.

• He never, to me, showed good speed but this year I saw him leg out some hits for Columbus that reminded me of the speed I see from Amed Rosario and Myles Straw.   But that couldn't be, right?  Well tonight they timed him going to first base in what was defined as close to elite speed.
• He never took many walks but at least this year at Columbus he was seeing more pitches than he had in the past.   This was borne out tonight as he worked pretty deep into counts, at least a lot deeper than earlier years.  Plus, in his major league debut he didn't strike out.  
• In Columbus he seemed to be trying to use the whole field as a hitter this year, maybe too much.  But tonight he got a hit to center and one to right.  When power hitters use the whole field they make themselves more of a weapon, not becoming an all or nothing guy.  
• He showed elite bat speed with his first ML hit leaving his bat at 113 mph.  In fact, in the game he hit 3 of the top 5 hardest hit balls.  That is impressive for a rookie who was not highly touted as a prospect AND in his first major league game.
• His OF defense was always suspect but in Columbus this year he looked better and he made a good running catch with the bases loaded early in the game.

There are 5 tools for a position player in baseball.  Tonight Gonzalez showed all of them to some degree.  That, to me, is a true elite prospect.  And you know what?  From this observer's vantage point, he is much improved all year in 2022, not just in this game.  The improvement, to me, is in some cases amazing, especially his apparent increase in foot speed.  The fact that he is using the whole field more as a hitter in addition to his improved defense and increase in foot speed shows to me that he is taking coaching very well and is doing what he needs to do to improve as a player.  

I think this guy could, given his current upward trajectory, become a lot more than the after thought prospect that a lot of these prospect 'experts' think he could be.   I wasn't sure before but I am now.  As scouts say, if you see it once it is in there.  What we saw tonight should show all the prospect experts that Gonzalez can be an elite prospect.   He already had the power and t appears he has done a lot of work to fill in the question marks in his game.  Tonight reinforced for me that he is working hard to fill in the holes in his game.  Will he ever be a great ML player?  Not until he learns to take more walks.   But given the other progresses he has made in his game in the past two seasons, I can clearly see how the lack of walks thing could disappear in another year or so.  

Wouldn't that be amazing if it did!

Tobias Myers: Have we seen this trade before

 More than a few of us were rolling our eyes and scratching our heads when the Guardians added a guy to their 40-man over the winter who had been DFA'd by Tampa Bay.  With the 40 man roster crunch (we didn't have a space for Oscar Gonzalez and we probably needed a veteran reliever or two) it seemed odd to add a guy like Myers but, you know, the Indians are great at developing pitchers.

Well, spring training went by and I wasn't impressed.

Early into the season, given the results at Columbus, I am not impressed.  The guy just looks bad.  Like minor league free agent bad.  

Which brings us to the other part the trade, the player the Indians gave up.   I admit I didn't know anything about Caminero before he signed with the Indians/Guardians.   But looking at his stats last year was eye-opening.   Look, guys just don't hit 9 HRs in the DSL.   These guys are young, not physically mature yet and need to learn to play.   As has been said, power develops later in a career.  They don't hit 9 HRs at 17 years old.

Then it occurred to me.  Was this deja vu all over again?  The following line from Baseball Reference should be burned in the brains of all long-time, die-hard Indians/Guardians fans:

April 3, 1974: [Bruce Ellingsen] traded by the Los Angeles Dodgers to the Cleveland Indians for Pedro Guerrero.

Yes, in one the absolutely worst trades in Indians' history, Bruce Ellingsen came to the Indians for a future all-star.   Ellingsen appeared in 16 games for the Indians that season and then never pitched in the majors again.  

Guerrero, who only hit 2 HR and ..255 in his DSL debut at 17, didn't here as many as 9 until 1975, didn't make a big impact in the majors until 1981.  Still, the similarities are very striking.   

Let's hope I am wrong but let's hope history doesn't repeat itself.  Or if we make another trade with the Rays, let's make sure we ask for Caminero back as a throw-in.   Heck, we'll even give them Myers back!