Friday, May 27, 2022

Early season top prospects list

 The Guardians are struggling at the major league level right now so let's do what us older fans have been trained to do during the bad years of the 70s, 80s and early 90s...look at our prospects and dream.

So, after watching MiLB games every day, looking over box scores and reading about the progress of our prospects I have compiled a list.   This list only includes players who will likely retain their prospect status during the year (thus the omission of Steven Kwan but not Richie Palacios) and are currently on a full-season minor league team or in the majors likely to return to the minors without losing their prospect status.   Thus players currently in extended spring training or on the Dominican summer league team roster for the Guardians are not included.

So, here goes:

1. Daniel Espino - Here is a guy that has to be pushing the top 20 prospects in all of baseball at this point.  The only knock on him and the only reason I see him maintaining his prospect eligibility this season is that does seem to have the penchant to give up hard contact.  He needs to develop another off-speed pitch to eliminae that and, until he does, he could get hit around pretty good in the majors as we would be burning hiis pre-arbitration years without a lot of return in performance.

2. George Valera -  Breaking out of his early season slump has helped my confidence that he belongs this high.   Still, I have concerns when I watch how his swing seems to break down at times.   Lots to like about this guy but he could go all the way from all-star to bust in terms of his future development.  Now I know every prospect has that possibility but not generally one that is rated this highly.

3. Gabriel Arias - There is a long way between Espino and Arias in terms of projection.   Now, is it possible that Arias becomes Jose Ramirez Part deux?  Maybe.  However, right now, he just looks like Amed Rosario with better fielding.   Not bad but not really perennial all-star level.

4. Tyler Freeman - Looks like he is shaking off the rust a little bit and I really like him but he is a second baseman in this system.   While he will hit, will he hit to the tune of .300 BA, .370 OBP, 30 2B, 17 HR 15 SB level we would like to see from an offensive-first second baseman?  Time will tell.

5. Brayan Rocchio - His numbers don't show it but he seems to be a very polished young player.  If he can pump up the steepness of his improvement curve a little bit he could be a great addition, or trade chip, down the road.  Right now he is scuffling but I don't see it as a long-term thing.

6. Gavin Williams - OK, I am on the bandwagon.   I know he is only facing A ball hitters but he is dominating as you would expect from a guy who deserves a promotion.  When, hopefully, he gets promoted if he continues with any semblance of a 3.00 1.2 K/IP guy at AA, then we can start dreaming on his potential as a front of rotation starter.

7. Milan Tolentino - He just looks so damn good for having been drafted as a HS hitter.   He is supposed to be a defense first guy whose bat is questionable but so far, maybe it is just the opposite.  

8  Logan T. Allen - I would have had him at #4 after the first few weeks but his performance has started to level out and I think this is a good place for him.  He is in line with the stuff that Biever, Plesac and Civale have and he becomes a little more like McKenzie and Quantrill we may have another solide mid-rotation starter for years to come.

9. Jonkensey Noel - I have always liked this guy more than the scouts.  I see him as a power-hitting outfielder with some control of the strikezone.  His early season performance has been uneven but I see him picking it up in the second half of the season to put up huge numbers.

10.  Bo Naylor - He is repeating AA and so you would expect his numbers to get noticeably better than last year but he looks good at the plate.  Plus, his defense appears to be very good, at least to my eyes.

11. Oscar Gonzalez - I get that it looks like I am jumping on the bandwagon here but the guy is 24 years old.  In his first ML game he showed a plus arm, plus speed, good use of the entire field as a hitter, obviously excellent power and decent defense.  The only thing he doesn't have is the ability to take a walk and, up to this year, a too-high strikeout rate.  Three plus tools and too average tools.   This doesn't look like an after-thought prospect.  He looks really good AND he looks like he has jumped on to the steep part of his learning vs time curve and has done it with hard work.  At least that is my impression.  

12. Hunter Gaddis - Look, he shouldn't stand out from higher rated. higher drafted prospects like Nikhazy, Mace, Battenfield, Pilkington, Burns, but the guy is putting up numbers at AA and he was throwing 96-97 mph late in the game of a recent start in which he also dominated.   His height with his stuff throwing 97 mph late into a game gives him a lot of street cred with me.  

13.  Nolan Jones - We don't really know what we have with him but he could be done really soon if he doesn't start to pick it up.   Looking at his numbers he doesn't stand out.  Let's hope this is his turnaround year.  

14. Will Brennan - He gets a lot of credit from me just based on his production.  If you can hit with some gap power and play good CF defense you have a spot.

From here on out it is a crapshoot.   We have lots of good prospects but none of them stand out to me.  So the next set of guys could be ranked anywhere from 15-30 in my mind.  

Jose Tena, Angel Martinez, Tanner Burns, Bryan Lavastida, Petey Halpin, Cody Morris, Carson Tucker, Peyton Battenfield, Xzavion Curry, Ethan Hankins, Jake Fox, Isaiah Greene, Tanner Bibee, Carlos Vargas, Joey Cantillo, Tommy Mace

After that we have a number of guys who can probably have a bump in production but have yet to break out to the point where they can be considered real prospects:

Doug Nikhazy, Xzvaion Curry, Gabriel Rodriguez, Nik Mikolajchak, Will Benson, Kirk McCarty, Konor Pilkington, Josh Wolf, Lenny Torres, Dayan Frias, Jose Ferman, Luis Durango, Joe Naranjo

Plus a number of minor league relievers with good stats:

Nick Mikolajchak, Andrew Mislaszek, Nic Enright, Kevin Kelly, Ben Krauth, Tim Herrin, Will Dion, Jerson Ramirez.

1 comment:

  1. Art here... I'd move up Tolentino and Brennan into the top 5 or 6, and probably drop Arias and Freeman a few slots to compensate, otherwise I generally agree with your list

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