Spring Training Game From Monday

 As my previous post indicated, my viewing of ST games is currently on the IL until MLB lets us all know how they are going to provide us with Guardians' baseball this year.

That being said, I can't look at the players live and give my impressions. So here is my impression from long distance.

PLAYERS OF THE GAME

Roman Quinn  - 3 HRs in 5 ABs.  I love it when a guy like Quinn gets to shine. Still, the guy has had 6 ML seasons to become a productive major leaguer and he hasn't made it.  While his performance is good he is clearly a fungible asset and I will be saying this over and over again for the rest of ST: Unless we have a long-term injury to one of our OFers we cannot afford the luxury of carrying a guy like Quinn.  We have speeds.  We have good defense in the OF.  We have Arias to play LF in a crunch so we have 5 outfielders.  This 40-man roster is so packed right now we just can't add a feel-good story just because he might be able to pinch run us into a victory once in a while, and ESPECIALLY when he would likely cost us a true prospect because we would have to DFA someone to make this work.

Shane Bieber - Solid two innings although I didn't see it.  Still, he is the first starter who did what he should have done in his first outing.  That, at least, limits the antacids I need to take.

Gabriel Arias - The one thing was could he hit for average.  He has shown some promise early on that he has learned that he was to take what the game gives him.   It is very promising for a second year player to come to that realization.

DUD OF THE GAME

Eli Morgan - Like his ML bullpen and starting rotation predecessors, he had a bad first outing.  But it's early so let's not go all Chicken Little here.  Still, he sucked although a guy like Morgan has to be really in mid-season form to be effective.  He will likely NEVER be good at the beginning of spring training.

OTHER PLAYERS

David Fry - Fry is the NRI who, in my opinion, has the best chance to break through and make this team.  He has experience at C, 1B, 3B, LF and RF in the minors and has even played a game at SS.  He is a right-handed bat and the type of minor league veteran who still has upside.  If you think he can be your backup catcher then, yes, I carry him in a heartbeat.  If not, I just don't see how he fits on this roster when he is only a phone call away at Columbus if we truly need him.  Still, he continues to do the little things (yesterday a walk and a SF) that could help this team.  

Micah Pries - Double, triple and HR in his first 5 ABs.  He will be going down to Columbus to start the season but every day he is showing that he will be coming back at some point and might be staying in Cleveland for a long, productive time.

Will Brennan - He needs to continue to be productive, chipping away, putting up good numbers, doing the little things.  He has this team made but he needs to use this spring to put himself in a situation where he is uber-ready if his name is called.  So far, so good with a hit, an RBI and 2 runs scored yesterday.

Konnoe Pilkington - Typical outing.  Get in trouble, get out of trouble.  Leave with a decent line.  

Without seeing the game I can't comment on the nuance of the performances of guys like Freeman, Brito, Martinez, Lavastida, Zunino, Naylor, Kwan, Tena or our NRI relief pitchers looked or how our minor leaguers looked at garbage time.  Disappointing that I can't see these guys play right now but I will piece together what I can going forward.

I am no longer sure that I want my M(LB) TV any more!

 OK, just got off the phone with the people at MLB Network.

My 2022 subscription ends, according to MLB Network's website, on February 28th, which is tomorrow.

However, I tried to watch games today on both my laptop and my TV and it said that I didn't have access to the game.

In calling MLB Network they told me that as far as they could see I was not able to watch games today and tomorrow because the auto-renewal had already cancelled my subscription for 2022 because I had not auto-renewed for 2023.

I was on the phone for almost an hour with these people and the best I could get out of them was that I could escalate the problem but since that escalation process takes 48 to 72 hours,  my 2022 subscription would be over before it was resolved.

For those of you who read my previous blog on this subject, I am not willing to auto-renew and give MLB my money until I see what happens with DSG.  All Rob Manfred has told us so far is that he is confident that MLB will be able to bring me the games of my home team.  He DIDN'T guarantee the following:

1. I would be able to watch games with the Guardians announcers

2. I would be able to watch all 162 games with subscriptions to other streaming services.

    a. Last year I couldn't watch games live that were broadcast on ESPN

    b. I wasn't able to watch games live that required me to have an Apple TV

    c. Many times I was not able to watch games 90 minutes after the game ended as the subscription promised me I would.  It was more like 3 hours.  Basically, that meant I couldn't watch them until the next day!

3. I could watch games without having to watch them with other teams' announcers doing the broadcasting.

We have already heard that MLB may sell the rights to broadcast some of the MLB games to other streaming services like FUBO.   I am not getting subscriptions to other streaming services just so I watch what I am paying MLB Network for.

So, because of this, I have not renewed my MLB Network subscription yet. But we are NOT talking about my MLB Network 2023 subscription.  According to the MLB Network on their website today, something that I remember from last year, my 2022 subscription does not end until tomorrow, February 28th.  

During our conversation the guy at MLB Network tried to tell me that my subscription ends on Feb 27th.   He also, repeatedly, tried to sell me on the advantages of renewing my subscription right now because I could then have access to my teams' games without interruption.  

It seems like there is no way I am going to be able to watch games today or tomorrow.  I am not going to watch other spring training games because I am not going to renew until I know what is going on.  That is disappointing because, to me, it appears that MLB Network has broken their 2022 contract with me.  It also appears that there is mounting evidence that even if we get to watch the Guardians in 2023 we will pay the same price as viewers of other teams but likely will not be guaranteed to be able to have our home announcers or watch those games without paying additional money to subscribe to other streaming services, making even fewer games available to the MLB Network subscriber.

At this point I am extremely disappointed.   MLB Network has not, in their interactions with me, shown that they want anything more than to get my money without any guarantee of honoring their contract with me.  

Now I am not sure, going forward, that I even want my M(LB) TV.

        

Time to...

 ...pull off the bandaid.

Look, all of us would love to have each of our pitching prospects turn out to be starters.  

But that isn't the reality.    There are only 5 starting pitcher positions and, at the present, they are all filled.

So, what do you do with the excess?

Guys like Battenfield, Morris, Curry and Gaddis, in my opinion, are better suited for the bullpen than the rotation. Tim Herrin has already made that transition.  I think these other guys should, too.

Our competitive window is wide open right now.  We have relief pitchers who are injured.  Even if that wasn't true we have just enough relief pitchers in the majors and, really, only one, Tim Herrin, who is even projectable to is in the minors but projectable to be in the majors.

In my opinion the time is now to transition these guys to full-time bullpen roles.  Get them used to closing games.  In my experience, majors or minors, if you are closing games it translates pretty well to middle relief or setup work in the bullpen AND, long term, it allows the guys with the best disposition for it to be closers in the future.

Like everything else in baseball, experience is often the best teacher.  I think it is time to prepare these guys to be relievers in the majors.  Injuries happen.  Poor performance happens.  Relievers can have uneven performance from year to year.  You do need more than 5 good starters but you need more than 8 good relievers, too.

In my opinion, it is time to rip off the bandaid and transition these guys to the bullpen.   Their stuff supports a bullpen role, just like Stephan's did when we got him.  

This is our competitive window.  Let's barge through it. 

Sunday Game Recap

 OK, let's jump in:

PLAYERS OF THE GAME

Hunter Gaddis - This was Gaddis at his best.  Two innings, one walk, 4 strikeouts, not a lot of hard contact.  I know they want to keep developing him as a starter but, dam guys, he could be the next Trevor Stephan.  Logan Allen does not have the pedigree to be a short reliever.  Gaddis and Curry do.  Let's go!

Jose Tena - Two ABs, two hits.  Good up the middle approach.  He will be solid on D.  Still very young.

Micah Pries - A laser shot to RF after his double to left center yesterday.  Is it possible that this guy is STILL on the steep part of his development path.  If so, we could see him at some point this summer, especially if he can also play LF at a decent level.  

Angel Martinez - Golf shot to RF for a homer in the wind.  Love his potential

Richie Palacios - Two ABs, two base hits, both to LF.  He needs to show more than this to be a ML player but with his pinch hitting last year for Cleveland, he is staying in their mind.  It would be great if he could play 2B in the WBC.  It almost seems like the Guardians have written him off as a second baseman. 

DUDS OF THE GAME

Zach Plesac - I just really can't believe this.  He has a low bar to get over to be a successful ML 5th starter and it appears he is doing everything in his power to not be successful.  It is early and, seeing what Quantrill did yesterday, we will chalk this one up to 'workng on stuff'.  I hope this is right, otherwise about 2 starts into the season we could see him sent to the bullpen.

James Karinchak -  Just not sharp in his first time out.  But we have seen this Jekyl and Hyde thing from him before.

Sam Hentges - Not sharp..

Caleb Simpson - Hurt by some questionable defense but not the start you want to have an a non-roster invitee.  Still think they did a terrible job with the NRI pitchers this year.  It puts a lot of pressure on guys to stay healthy and be productive...unless we plan to use Curry, Gaddis, Herrin and Battenfield as bullpen arms.

Jonathon Rodriguez - Like Simpson, not a memorable game for the youngster.  Didn't hit and butchered a fly ball in right field.  I am one of the few that rate him as a good prospect. My view has not changed.

OTHER PLAYERS

Ponticelli, Michael Kelly, Davis Sharpe and Hanner all pitched relatively clean today.

Brito - Got his first hit, an opposite field double down the line and played clean in the field.

Rosario, Jose Ramirez, Bell, Gonzalez, Noel, Gallagher, Bo Naylor and Collins didn't do much offensively.

Gimenez - Led off (a good sign).  Would love to see him hit second in the WBC.  Even leading off would be a help.  

Halpin - Didn't hit and came up short when he had a chance to make a play in CF that would have turned some heads.

Valera - Not hitting and showing us that he is NOT a centerfielder.  Just barely stayed off the dud list.

Rocchio - Got a hit up the middle in 2 ABs.

Naranjo - Got an opposite field hit in 2 ABs.

SUMMARY 

Just one of those games that happen during spring training.  File it. Flush it.  Forget it. One comment I will make about a player for the opposite team:  Church came into the came in the 9th and our guys seemed to have a really hard time picking up the ball.  Throws hard and easy. He had Pries talking to himself and teammates as he went back to the dugout.  Rarely saw him that befuddled last year.  Church's numbers, 78 K in 49 IP last year, showed there is something there. He is not listed among the Rangers top 30 prospects and if we could get him in a minor trade I would be intrigued.  Again, a minor trade, no Myers for Caminero or even Jones for Brito.  M-I-N-O-R trade.  Maybe Will Dion?  

Yeah. Baseball Games Are Back

 Great to watch a game with Cleveland players and Cleveland announcers.  

In games that I am actually able to watch I am going to give my opinions of what I saw this spring.  Normally, but not always, I am going to list my player(s) of the game and dud(s) of the game, as well as my thoughts on all the players who saw action that day.  Won't see every game, obviously, but in the games I do see I will do this.

So let's get started:

PLAYERS OF THE GAME

Steven Kwan - Wow, just where he left off last year!   The only nitpicky negative I saw was in his 3rd AB, at 0-1 he took a sliider belt high on the outside edge with the third baseman playing in and off the line.  I would have liked to see him slap that ball down the left field line.  I hope he uses that left field line more often this year.  In fairness, his next couple of swings were going the other way but, like last year, he elevated the ball.   If he keeps that ball on the ground no way the thirdbaseman is going to throw him out.

Gabriel Arias - Like Kwan, hits in his first two ABs is encouraging and he hit them solidly.  I don't know if I saw him field a ball but I didn't see him muff anything.

Tyler Freeman - Tito stole my thunder here as Freeman's BABIP was .000 but his hard hit percentate was 1.000.  He made a really good play to his backhand side up the middle and made a strong throw from behind the bag.  I think he could be a great offensive second baseman and a potential gold glover there, as well, based on his SS experience.

DUDS OF THE GAME

Mike Zunino - This was an easy one.  0-2, leaving 3 runners on base.   3 stolen bases against him in 3 innings, one on a ball 4 call where he should have never thrown through anyway as it was a delayed double steal.  Plus he dropped an easy pitch to catch in the 3rd inning to his glove side that made me wonder about his surgically repaired left arm as it was a fastball about his shoulder height on the glove side.   Plus, he did not pick Brennan's good throw from the outfield, another glovehand play that he did not make.  Again, only spring training but a veteran should never have a stinker like this one and it does raise some question marks about the viability of that surgically repaired arm.

Cal Quantrill - Didn't get out of the 2nd inning and his pitches looked up and did not have his usual command although he was a victim of his catcher.

OTHER PERFORMANCES

PITCHERS

Brett Daniels - got two outs to end the second before more damage.  It shows they are still thinking about him even though he was only Quantrill's parachute if he couldn't get through 2.  Positive outing for him.

Tim Herrin - A little command issue but, to me, the sharpest of the relievers and, if continues to improve, he could break camp with the Guardians, especially if Morris cannot.

Xzavion Curry - His command was not sharp but his control and stuff looked good.  Thus 2 perfect innings but with only one K.

Cade Smith - Even though he had a perfect inning and got a K I think his K pitch was the only swing and miss in the inning.  He needs to miss more bats or get more called strikes to be successful at the ML level.

Luis Oviedo - Some swing and miss stuff here and a basehit given up.  A good start to his spring.  I still think he has some potential to be a middle innings reliever in the majors.

Nick Mikolajchak - All over the place, not looking like the 2021 version of himself.  Someone we thought we might stash at AAA in case of an emergency but now looking more 'organizational' than 'prospect'.

Aaron Pinto - Not the best first impression giving up the walkoff HR but the fact the Guardians used him at all shows they are at least thinking he will be either at Akron of Columbus this year unless he totally tanks the rest of the spring.

HITTERS

David Fry - A HR to put us ahead in the second.  He likely won't break camp with the ML team but his versatility makes him an interesting option for the last spot on the bench.   He might even be a better choice than Freeman who was our emergency catcher last year.

Roman Quinn - Looked overmatched in his first AB, hit a long HR in his second.  Since power is not supposed to be part of his game he still looks to me like AAA filler.  But, way to go Roman.

Juan Brito - As advertised, he worked a walk in his only AB.   He looked shaky at 2nd base as he almost misplayed a popup and I think muffed the around the horn after he fielded a broken bat grounder and threw the runner our.

Josh Naylor - Got a hit, tried to steal a base (which Tito inferred he should not be doing in the regular season), didn't field Benson's smash to him.  He will be fine but, in this lineup, I still think he should hit 6th or 7th.

Pries - Looked solid in the field and roped a double at the end of a good AB.  Really like his potential.

Rocchio - Looked OK at SS but very weak at hitting, waving at a 3rd strike out of the zone and weakly rolling over on two other balls.   I see "The Professor" as still being a big question mark over what he will be.

George Valera - Two weakly hit balls and an adventure on a fly ball to CF.   On one of his ground balls he hit into a double play as a left-handed batter hitting the ball to the shortstop's right.  Seemed he should have easily beaten that ball out but didn't.  Nothing positive to report here.

Richie Palacios - Nothing to report here on an 0-2.

Angel Martinez - 0-1 and may have hurt his wrist diving for a bunt popup.  

Jose Tena - 0-1, rolling over on the first pitch he saw with the bases loaded in the 8th.

Jhonkensy Noel - Looked a little shaky in RF on one ball going 0-1 with a walk on a ball 3 feet outside. An overall work in progress.

Juan Escobedo - 0-1, nothing to report.

Christian Cairo - A walk in his only AB., showing a good eye.

Bryan Lavastida - 0-1 and nothing to report as a catcher.

Meibrys Viloria - Walked in his only AB and I don't remember much about him catching.

Thoughts for a Friday - Pre-Spring Training Opening Game Edition

 Some general thoughts on the Friday before our first spring training game:

1. Non-Guardians Thought - Living in St. Louis, I watched Albert Pujols from the time he was a rookie through the time he left for LA and then, on MLB network, when he came back to St. Louis for that final year.  He is a Cardinal IMHO.  But MLB will have a different story.  The Angels paid him to play for them for 10 years.  He was paid by the Cardinals for 12 years.  While he hit more than twice the number of HRs and doubles in St. Louis, the fact is that there is not a really significant difference in the time he was in LA compared to St. Lous.  Why is this important?  Wade Boggs.  He signed a lucrative contract with Tampa Bay with the proviso is if he made the HOF he would go in as a Ray, even though he played almost all his career in Boston and NY.   MLB then put in a rule to avoid these shenanigans in the future by saying that MLB would decide which hat a player wears going in unless the years are close, at which time the player's input will be considered.  This year Pujols begins the first year of his 10 year personal services contract with the Angels.  I wonder if their is a clause in his Angles contract that says he will go in as an Angel?  I wonder if his additional time with the Angels will sway him to go in as an Angel.  I wonder if he is not contractually obligated to go in as an Angel if he will go all Fred McGriff on us and go in without a logo on the hat of his HOF statue/bust.  And, of course, I wonder if he will go in as a Cardinal.  

2. I am so excited to see how this year in the minors plays out.  We have a lot of guys who will be subject to the Rule 5 this coming December and it would be nice if they all break out this year and make it difficult on the Guardians' deep thinkers when they have to make their 40 man this November.  Here are some of the guys who will be Rule 5 eligible this winter:

Second Time Eligible

Peyton Battenfield

Alexfri Planez

Micah Pries

Gabriel Rodriguez

Jonathon Rodriguez

Trey Benton

Ethan Hankins

Nick Mikolajchak

Lenny Torres

David Fry

Junior Sanquintin

First Time Eligible

Daniel Espino

Mason Hickman

Josh Wolf

Logan Allen

Joe Naranjo

Jose Pastrano

Wuilfredo Antunez

Jorge Burgos

Luis Durango

I can see some of these guys breaking out this year, making decisions difficult as, unless we have some big trades, there won't be room for any more than 2 (at the least) to 4 (at the most) of them this winter.

I have highlighted the guys who I think are, at present, locks this winter.  Some of the other guys, like Battenfield, Pries, Fry and Hickman may force the Guardians hand by being called up during the season.  Guys like Gabriel Rodriguez and Jonathon Rodriguez are on the cusp of breaking out, Trey Benton was throwing close to triple digits this winter and guys like Hankins, Torres and Wolf are young hurlers coming off of injury-plagued pasts.  Plus there always seems to be 1-2 guys who come out of nowhere to put up ridiculous numbers (see Jhonkeny Noel, for example) and put themselves in contention for a 40-man roster spot.  Maybe it is Alexfri Planez's year to put all that potential together and become one of our top 10 prospects.  He certainly has loud tools.

3.  Injuries happen over the winter.  I read in a piece that said that Andrew Misiaszek was going to be out for a while, essentially removing the only wildcard bullpen lefty who might have surprised and made the team out of spring training or could act as a backup if Hentges got hurt or was ineffective.  Are there more guys who are reporting to ST with injuries that occurred over the winter or that lingered from last year?

4. Had to smile at the lineup for our first ST game.  Now it starts.  Arias, Brennan, Freeman, Rocchio, and Fry.  I could see all of these guys helping us to various degrees this year and in the future.  Zunino batting 5th.    I think they really have high hopes for this guy as an offensive force this season.   Quantrill followed by Herrin.  Let's hope the pitching development people have worked their magic with Herrin and he can open the season as an effective member of our bullpen and we just don't have to throw a guy onto our opening day roster (like Pilkington) just because he is left-handed. 

Positonal Battles - Catchers

 In my opinion no position battle is more interesting for the Guardians this spring than catcher.

Everyone is thinking that our starter is Mike Zunino.  Not saying that Zunino won't be the starter but counting on a guy who is coming off major, albeit non-throwing, shoulder surgery is not as sure a thing as counting on a guy NOT coming off major surgery.

So let's take a look at 2 scenarios, one with and one without Zunino

SCENARIO 1: Zunino catching 110 games

In this scenario we are just looking for a backup catcher.  The candidates are Bryan Lavastida, Bo Naylor, Cam Gallagher, Meibrys Viloria, Zach Collins and David Fry.  This was a really interesting off-season for the Guardians in that where they brought in a lot of depth guys and new starters was at cactcher, replacing two guys, Hedges and Maile, who did most of the catching last year. 

Outcome 1

Lavastida wins the job with great play this spring.  This is the best outcome for Cleveland as he is on the 40 man already and sets himself up for a job he could have for the next 6 years, backing up Bo Naylor most of that time.

Domino effects: Naylor goes to AAA as the starting catcher. Cam Gallagher opts out.  Meibrys Viloria goes to Columbus to be Bo Naylor's backup.  David Fry is the 3rd catcher at Columbus. Zach Collins probably opts out.

Outcome 2 

Gallagher wins the job and serves as a placeholder for when Bo Naylor is ready.

Domino effects of that outcome: DFA someone (Jason Bilious, Bryan Lavastida or Richie Palacios most likely) or someone goes on the 60-day.  Naylor to AAA, Lavastida, if not DFA'd, backs him up, Collins opts out, Viloria either goes to AAA (only if Lavastida DFA'd), opts out or goes to AA. Fry emergency catcher at AAA

Outcome 3 

Viloria or Collins get the job (only if Gallagher gets hurt and Lavastida isn't ready.

Domino effects: DFA someone or someone goes on the 60 day. Naylor to AAA, Lavastida, if not DFA'd, goes to AAA, if Viloria Collins opts out, if Collins, Viloria to AA or AAA if Lavastida DFA'd. Fry emergency catcher at AAA.

SCENARIO 2 - Zunino can't go, ends up on 15 day DL

Outcome 1

Naylor is the starter. 

Domino Effects: Gallagher is the backup.  We DFA someone.  Lavastida and Viloria to AAA. Collins opts out. Fry is the emergency catcher

Outcome 2

Gallagher and Viloria split catching duties.

Domino Effects: We need to DFA 2 people (likely Bilious and Palacios) or someone goes on the 60 day. Naylor to AAA with Lavastida (if not DFA'd) or Collins.  If Lavastida at AAA then Collins opts out.  Fry is the emergency catcher.

SCENARIO 3: Zunino goes to 60 day DL

Worst outcome for the Guardians.  We are paying Zunino and getting nothing out of him.

Same possible outcomes as Zunino on the 15 day except that him being on the 60 day means we have to only DFA one person or put another player on the 60 day.  Outcome 1 is the most likely in this case as having 2 AAAA catchers on your major league roster is very unappealing.

Summary: Obviously there are more outcomes if trades are made but, from the deck we have been dealt, these are our outcomes that I see.

2022 Draftees - Where Will They Start Their Pro Careers?

 The Guardians, recently, have taken the position that, for the most part, their draftees won't play in the minors in the year they are drafted.  There are a few exceptions but, by and large, draftees have to wait to get their first taste of professional baseball until the next spring training.  Looking at the 2021 in the famous pitcher draft (19 of 21 picks were pitchers, 18 college, 1 HS and two were hitters, 1 college and 1 HS) draftees here is where and when they started.

5 Started in 2021 - all in the ACL

16 started in 2022

• 5 started at Lake County
• 8 started at Lynchburg
• 3 started at the AZL team

So, with that in mind, here are my predictions of where the players the Guardians drafted last year will start their pro career this year.  This list, of course, is subject to change if guys get injured and, therefore, are held back in extended spring training.  But let's hope that good fortune smiles on the Guardians prospects in terms of injuries this spring

1. Chase DeLauter - OF - When I started to make this list I had him, surprisingly, starting his pro career in Akron as the Guardians tried to push him up the ladder the way they did with Bo Naylor in 2021.  Now, with his injury, I see him getting onto the field in August in the AZL and maybe finishing with Lake County in September if that goes well.   If the opportunity presents itself, he might even get a couple of ABs in Akron where he would likely start 2024.  This is, of course, with the hope that everything goes well with his rehab.

1- CB - Justin Campbell, RHP - The Guardians have a formula.  Their high draft pick college pitchers start at high A ball.  So I see Campbell starting at Lake County with the Guardians hoping he goes all Tanner Bibee/Gavin Williams and ends up getting a mid-season promotion to Akron.  Campbell's pitchability should be able to handle high A batters and, if he shows some life on his fastball, Akron.  If his fastball velo remains where it was in college, his promotion to AA will go the way Tanner Burns' season went last year.

2 - Parker Messick - LHP - Messick should start at Lake County but I think he stays at Lake County most of the year (think Doug Nikhazy).  I think Messick needs to develop his weapons to be able to compete at AA and I don't think he will get there this year, except for maybe a week or two at the end of the season if Lake County is out of the playoff hunt.

3. Joe Lampe - OF - Normally I would say that your 3rd round advanced college hitter would start at high A but with Lampe, and with what the Guardians have done in the past, I think they are going to find that he is not what they thought they were getting and will send him to Lynchburg so that he can have some early success.  Clearly, though, if he stays at Lynchburg the whole year something is REALLY wrong with his development.   I do expect him to split the year, going up to Lake County at the beginning of June.

4.Nate Furman 2B - I see Furman starting at Lynchburg.  I think they will allow him to get his confidence and then move him up to Lake County during the season.  He might start at Lake County but, if he does, I would expect him to struggle a bit.

5. Guy Lipcomb, Jr. - OF - I see him starting the season at Lynchburg and maybe being there the entire year as he adjusts to the speed of pro ball.  There is an outside chance that he stays in extended spring training for a month or so before he moves up to Lynchburg.

6. Dylan DeLucia RHP -  DeLucia is a polished pitcher who I think will start the season at Lake County.  His mix should serve him well but I don't see him moving up during the season.

7. Javier Santos RHP - I see him starting the season in extended spring training and then playing in the AZL although I wonder if they would start him in the DSL as he was training at our academy in the DR this winter.  He would then transition to the AZL later in the summer.

8. Jackson Humphries - RHP - Easy call here for a HS pitcher.  He will start the season in extended spring training as he learns his routine.  Then he will pitch in the AZl.

9. Austin Peterson - RHP - I see him starting the season in Lynchburg and moving up if he dominates the way I think he should.  Then again, he may spend the majority of the season in Lynchburg mirroring, somewhat, what Will Dion did last year.

10. Jacob Zibin - RHP - Like Humphries, I see him starting the season in extended and then pitch in the AZL.  With what the Guardians have invested in him, if he pitches well in the AZL don't be surprised if he gets a late season promotion to get a cup of coffee at Lynchburg.

11. Magnus Ellerts - RHP - I think he will start in extended and then pitch in the AZL

12. Jack Jasiak - RHP - I think he will start in Lynchburg

13. Tyresse Turner - SS - I think, surprisingly, he starts the season at Lake County.  A lot of this depends on Cairo and Valdes, however, as I think the organization will feature them at Lake County as they are high draft picks who really have to make a jump this year or they becomes organizational guys.

14. Pres Cavanaugh - OF - I see him starting in Lynchburg unless he has a great spring.  

15. Adam Tulloch - LHP - I see him starting in extended spring training and then pitching in Lynchburg later in the season.

16. Logun Clark C - He will be in extended and then play on the AZL team

17. Angel Zarate - OF - I see him starting the season in Lynchburg

18. Zach Jacobs - RHP - I see him starting in extended and then pitching in Lynchburg or the AZL

19. Geo Rivera Jr. - RHP - I see him starting the season in extended as they try to harness his control and then playing in the AZL.

20. Shawn Rapp - LHP - I see him starting the season in Lynchburg.

In summary, if you are a Lake County fan you will see some of our 2022 draftees at some point this year with 5 of them starting there.  If you are an Akron fan you might see 0-4 of these guys during the year with, realistically, only Campbell and Messick having a chance to play any serious time there.  If you are a Lynchburg devotee you will likely, like last year, see a lot of our college draftees from the previous year, especially pitchers.  But I think, even more so than last year, the Guardians did not have a draft that will let them push guys.  That is why I am suggesting that they will have most of their college draftees at Lynchburg, with their HS draftees and some of their lower college draftees starting on the AZL team.

Thoughts for a Wednesday

 1. 'Let's see if Tyler Freeman can play outfield' - Hey, nothing wrong with this but this guy has been in this organization for years now and the middle infield logjam has been present for multiple years now.  One would have guessed that they would have thought of this sooner.   But, still, I LOVE that they are thinking versatility.  Like I said in a previous post, Arias looked VERY comfortable (to me) in LF last year.  

2. Daniel Espino - Here's hoping the best for this young kid.   Sounds better now.  Have to ask myself why no one asked WHEN the 8 weeks started until later.  I also have to ask whether the imaging that was done in January looked any different than the imaging done last year when he was first symptomatic and if imaging was even done last year.  I mean, it's imaging.  Generally non-invasive unless they have to use contrast agent, which I don't believe is typical for joints.  I think all the pitchers should have yearly MRIs of their shoulders and elbows just to see if anything is slowly creeping up or is latent.  But that's just me.  I mean, they are only investing millions of dollars in salaries on these guys.  Why should we protect that interest.

3. The preparation for Tito's opening speech to the team - Works on it all winter.  Works on it the night before instead of going to dinner with the coaches.  Cooks himself pasta instead.  Undercooks the pasta, breaks a tooth.  Can't sleep, gets in at 3:30 in the morning to work on it more.  Spills coffee on his speech.  So nervous he is sweating bullets before the speech.  WOW!  All I can say is that I hope this is the line in the sand where the bad luck and malaprops end this year.  Not saying another word on this subject. :-)

4. 2022 Draftees minor league placements - The minor leaguers haven't even reported but never too early to think about where these guys will start their pro careers.  More on this in a future post.

5. The batting order for 2023 -  Again, too early to tell because you don't know about injuries but here is my proposed lineup:

1. Kwan

2. Gimenez

3. Ramirez

4. Gonzalez

5. Bell

6. Naylor

7. Zunino

8. Rosario

9. Straw

Moving Rosario down is due to his penchant to hit into DPs and to expand the zone.  I like him in front of Ramirez but my frustration with his approach last year and the DP thing puts him down the order.   In addition, I tried to not put high OBP guys right in front of guys who hit into DPs.  I also considered that Gonzalez needed some protection.   The only inherent glitch in my lineup is that we have 3 right handed batters at the bottom of the order and 2 left handed batters at the top of the order.  Other teams could exploit that.  Plus, we don't know how Gimenez will do as a #2 hitter.  Will it mess him up?  Seems pretty good if we swap out Naylor for a RH hitter like Freeman or Arias as I would be OK with either of them hitting 6th as neither appear to be high DP guys or high OB guys meaning they would fit well behind the high OB guy Bell and the high DP guy like Zunino

Here is the lineup I think Francona will use, at least to start:

1. Kwan

2. Rosario

3. Ramirez

4. Bell

5. Gimenez

6. Gonzalez

7. Naylor

8. Zunino

9. Straw

While this lineup is more lefty/righty balanced, I still think it is a rally-kill waiting to happen.  Kwan gets on and Rosario rolls over one.   A couple of guys on in the first and Bell grounds into an inning-ending DP.  Naylor and Zunino don't run well but hitting behind Gonzalez that won't matter as Gonzalez is a low OB guy.  I don't know if this lineup protects Gonzalez and I think he needs to be protected.  Straw and Kwan hitting after Naylor and Zunino is probably not an issue as both Naylor and Zunino are not high OBP guys and Straw and Kwan are table-setters.  Plus putting Naylor this low could mean a seemless transition if we rest Naylor for Freeman or Arias against some lefties.

Lots of permutations and I hope Francona takes advantage of the analytics.  This lineup has to maximize EVERYTHING since it has no power.  This starts with not giving up two outs on one swing of the bat, putting guys on base for the middle of the order and, finally, protecting our young, inexperienced hitters, giving them good pitches to hit.

First Punch In The Gut This Spring

 Last year was such a confluence of good fortune.  Most of our minor leaguers performed well, a better percentage than we could reasonably expected excelled.  Injuries seemed, to me, to be few and those guys who started off the year injured seemed to make progress during the year. The Guardians had, I think, the fewest days on the IL of any team in the majors.

Then the reality of sports, especially professional sports, starteed early this spring training.

Cody Morris - Injured lat.  We will see how that plays out.  The hope is that, as in some cases in the past, the Guardians in-the-abundance-of-caution philosophy will lead to a short recovery period.  

Then came today:

Daniel Espino - Pain in his shoulder...again.  You see, the Guardians are so hush-hush, maybe due to HIPAA, when a player is injured.  First it was his knee last year.  Then that morphed into it being his shoulder...then silence.  Some videos of him doing strength training this winter.  But no throwing.  Then came the word: discomfort in his shoulder and, after imaging, some damage was found.  At least 8 weeks out from starting baseball activities.   Not good.  Experts drank the kool-aid, ranking him as our #1 prospect and one of the top 20 in baseball.   Not happening, at least not right now.

Chase DeLauter - If I wasn't so mad at him and so ticked off about how his first draft had screwed the Guardians, I would almost feel sorry for Scott Barnsby.   He gambled that he got a steal, totally disregarding DeLauter's injury which didn't allow him to go full out before the draft AND the fact that he was eaten up early in the season, before the injury by college lefties.  I do feel sorry for DeLauter as the reports make it appear that the surgery they did may have resulted in creating a problem somewhere else in the same foot.  Another surgery, another 4-5 months wasted.   Remember when the put in the wrong size rod in Matt Whitney's leg?  These surgeons have to be better than this.   The only good news for DeLauter is that he is closer to the majors than the 16-year old international signees are, meaning he still has time to put himself in a good position to get put on the 40-man roster close to the time he is ready for the majors (as opposed to Brito and Noel)  But right now, Barnsby looks like an idiot for taking this chance and, adding the scouting reports on the rest of his draftees, it looks like he doesn't know what he is doing.  Hey, this may turn out well but, on paper, we may be in real trouble in terms of our 2022 draft.  Small market teams cannot do this, especially when it was obvious there were guys who were as or more talented and made more sense for the organization in the first 5 rounds or so.

Hey, it's baseball and it's early and more injuries can pop up or injuries that are left over from the last year or appeared over winter workouts can be reported like they were for Espino and DeLauter.   We just have to all hope that these reports will be few and far between and our top prospects will continue on an accelerated learning path and be in Cleveland helping the Guardians win sooner rather than later AND that we will have a whole bunch of guys come out of the woodwork this year like Tanner Bibee did last year.  

Positional Battles - The Outfield

 As we get into spring training let's talk about our battles at each position.  Let's start with the outfield.

STARTERS

Kwan (LF, backup in CF and RF)

Straw (CF)

Gonzalez (RF)

NEXT MEN UP

1. Brennan (RF, LF, CF)

2. Arias (LF, RF)

3. Josh Naylor (RF)

4. Palacios (LF) - Minors - I think they have given up on him as a ML secondbaseman.

5. Valera (RF, LF, CF) -Minors

6. Fry (LF) - Minors - He can also catch so his versatility may be his ticket to some ML playing time

7. Noel (RF) - Minors

COMMENTS

The starters for 2023, barring injury or an unexpected trade, were set by the end of the Guardians' post-season last year.   Francona threw a monkey wrench into into the "next men up" category saying he was exploring putting Josh Naylor in RF some this year.  The goal is obvious: Francona found out how effective it was at the end of the year to use the DH as a rotating spot.  That is, instead of a day off use the DH to help keep position player leges fresh while keeping their bat in the lineup.  Then they signed Josh Bell in the off-season.  So there were two guys (Naylor, Bell) for two positions (1B/DH).  To break out of that pattern, if you want to rest someone you put Naylor in RF and let one of your other starters 'rest' at DH and get one of your bench players to fill in behind the guy who is the DH that game.   I hope Francona abandons this idea as signing Bell basically eliminated that as either he or Naylor should be DHing, if healthy, almost162 games, with the other one at 1B or having a true day off.  Brennan as the 4th outfielder is perfect and effective if Gonzalez struggles and I believe in Arias in the outfield as an emergency thing.  He looked really comfortable out there when he was playing in Columbus last year.  But starting Arias in the OF in any regular season game does not give Palacios or Brennan a chance.  In fact, the only chance Palacios would ever get in this situation is if 2 outfielders had to go to the DL and/or are sent down to the minors.  And I am not sure about that.   They might give Fry a chance early in the season (or even later, depending on the situation) as they might not be concerned with losing him in a DFA situation.  Valera or Noel might get a chance after the all-star break if one of them shows he is ready.  The bottom line here for Palacios, Valera, Fry and Noel is to stay ready at AAA and if you get your shot, grab it with both hands.   Apparently, if your initial impression in the majors in 2023 is a mediocre one (Jones, Benson) you might never get a second chance.  For Palacios, he may already be there (no second chance) but let's see what things look like after the WBC.  Besides getting to play on a world stage and getting to play with his brother, I think Palacios has done himself a big favor as I think he would have only gotten garbage time ABs if he was in ST this year.   If he does well against ML pitchers in the WBC, his stock might go up significantly with the Guardians.  That is the ONLY way I see his stock going up, however, so Richie better make a good impression in the WBC.  I know he can because I believe in him as a player and he seems like a solid person, as well..

Thoughts for a Sunday: Pre-full team workout post

 1. So it begins.  Our first injury report of the spring: Cocy Morris with a lat injury.  As Morris has had injury problems in the past this is concerning.  Our reliever depth is stretched pretty thin as the result of us not adding a reliever or two this winter.  Plus Morris profiles as an above average reliever if he can stay healthy.   New injuries happen and old injuries resurface or worsen.  It's a part of the game.  Still, part of this team's success last year was avoiding having players on the DL/IL.  So keep your fingers crossed that last year's 'luck' carries over through this year, as well.

2. The WBC Classic will give the Guardians some things to think about when the season begins.  Cal Quantrill, in order to be fit for the WBC, appears to have started his winter preparation earlier than normal.  These guys are professional athletes.  They need to let their bodies heal in the off-season.  Thus at least part of the reason LeBron James has a hyperbaric chamber in his home.  So Quantrill starting early and pitching in high-leverage situations like the WBC is something that SHOULD cause the Guardians to lessen his workload during the season.  Thus when Francona could leave him in to start inning 7 after a good 6-inning performance, he shouldn't.  When he picks a pitcher to be pushed back a day or to skip a start, it should be Quantrill, everything else being equal.  

3. More WBC: It is concerning to me how Richie Palacios appears to be an afterthought as he appears to be the next man up if we have an outfield injury or disappointment.  I think the WBC will help his confidence somewhat but the last outfielder who came up during the year and then was sent down never to return was Nolan Jones...and we know how that turned out.  While Palacios is not the be-all, end-all of major league outfielders, I think that cost-concious teams like the Guardians cannot throw away prospects and the Jones history worries me they will.

4. Still more WBC: Andres Gimenez playing in the WBC may be useful to the Guardians if the manager chooses to bat him 2nd.  That would be my hope as it would give the Guardians a chance to see if he can handle that spot and Gimenez the opportunity to get comfortable there.  Melbys Viloria playing in the WBC cements, I hope, his role as depth at AAA as I hope he doesn't have an opt-out and, if he does, he chooses not to use it.

5. Speaking of backup catchers, we don't hear much about that from camp.  My thinking now is that it's Lavastida's job to lose.  While Cam Gallagher makes all the sense, Lavastida jumping up and taking the job is perfect as he can just hold that job (similar to Andrew Kizner in St. Louis) while one starting catcher leaves and another arrives.  Lavastida would then be a steady and cheap backup who knows our pitching staff and, with Naylor, would help maximize that staff's output over the next 5 years.  

6. Finally, I hate to mention this but the Guardians have gone very thin on quality minor league free agent signees this winter. Last winter we had a number of AAAA pitchers we signed AND Bryan Shaw, who was essentially guaranteed a spot due to lack of depth.  This year we have less of both meaning that we will lean heavily on our legacy minor leaguers to fill those slots.  With the early delay in Morris' season, it highlights, once again, that you can never have too much pitching.  If this lack of signing depth guys who actually have a chance to pitch in the majors is organizational strategy because they think they have enough internal options, let's hope it works.  One of big successes of last year's team with their tight roster situation is how they rotated fungible assets through 1 to 2 roster spots and, being fungible, didn't care if they lost the guys after having to DFA them.  When you are talking about your own prospects, like Misiaszek, Battenfield and Mikolajchak, it is a more uncomfortable to treat those guys as throw-aways who they can afford to lose.  Last year Alex Call was about as good a prospect that I would like to lose this way as he did some things for Washington after we lost him on waivers to the Nats.

Have we become the new Moneyball A's?

The Cleveland Guardians are going for it.  There's a phrase a lot of the Dolan-is-cheap crowd would argue with.

However, they are REALLY going for it...in their own way, being all in on their strategy in every facet of the organization and taking a lot of risk, just like the Moneyball A's did.  I see this manifesting itself in 3 very stark ways:

1. They have identified their type of offensive player and they are all in on that type, including overdrafting (yes, I did go there) and trading for guys whose abilities don't appear to fit what is the norm in the major leagues now while trading away guys who appear to be more valuable but don't fit their ideal player.

2. They appear to have a formula on bringing in free agents that goes like this:  is the free agent a bargain based on their ability per dollar they are asking for and do we have ANYONE in our system who could potentially fill that job more cheaply?

3. They hold onto their prospects so tightly that absolutely, under no circumstances will they overpay even a little bit for a piece they need to make their current team better.  I am not talking about giving up the return that San Diego gave up to get Clevinger.   I am talking about the kind of return the Padres got when they traded Sandy Alomar, Carlos Baerga and Chris James for Joe Carter.  Trades that hurt but are possible due to prospect depth and major league team needs without drastically overpaying.  

A couple of things I do believe:

a. As a team hypersensitive to cash flow issues, the DSG thing has impacted their apetite for financial risk.  If they don't get that money it is a huge chunk of change that they will start the season in the hole.

b. I think they look at major leaguers differently than some other teams.  It is not hugely difficult math to know what your players will be worth in arbitration and free agency down the road to calculate what your team salary will be anywhere in the next 5 years.   As fans we don't get that.  We just have to hope they know what they are doing because the cost for Gregory Soto and even for Sean Murphy and AJ Puk tell me that these guys would have been more than worth what it would have cost them to get these guys.   At the same time the highly logical thing would have been to trade Amed Rosario but the thought must be that he is much more valuable TO THIS TEAM than the simple sum of all his talents and drawbacks.

So, while I vehemently disagree with what I see as their plan, look at their success record.  I mean, just look at it.  Doing unconventional things designed to compete and not have the team go bankrupt has been working for 10 years, so much so that newer fans (not me) are numb to the success because it hasn't ended in a WS title.   I am willing to cut them some slack knowing when you build a house using playing cards, you are skating on thin ice with the chance it could easily all go to hell in a handbasket, as I mix several metaphors together!

I want my M(LB) TV

 OK, dating myself once again, I have shamelessly hinted at the the lyric from the Dire Straits song in 1985 which, in turn, came from the MTV slogan of the same time.  

Today I called MLB.TV to find out what is going on with the DSG failure to pay their payment to MLB and how that is going to impact my watching the Guardians on the MLB Network this year.

You see, there are a number of ways this can go in the next 30 days during which time DSG has to come up with a decision/plan.  Here are some of the options being floated around

• DSG gives the rights to broadcast these games back to the teams (how the teams can cobble together a package to broadcast these games is still unclear and potentially very problematic)
• DSG gives the rights obtained from the teams back to MLB who then are free to broadcast the games (again, same issue.  How will this be done and what will it look like for us Cleveland fans)
• DSG keeps the rights to the games and broadcasts them, although whether MLB would air those games is questionable and you might have to get your games through a streaming solution like FUBO.
• Instead of cash, teams get their 'money' back in the form of owning piece of the restructured DSG company and the games are broadcast on MLB Network as if nothing happened.

I am sure there are many other possible outcomes but these are the 4 I have heard.

Rob Manfred said if DSG doesn't fulfill its obligations MLB would be in a position to step in and broadcast the games.

But what does that mean?

So, today, I called MLB.TV to get some answers, if there were any.  My question to the polite lady who I talked to was this:

If DSG fails to deliver on its commitments what does that guarantee us Guardians' fans:

1. Will we get to see games broadcast with Cleveland announcers on a Cleveland-produced game?

or

2. Will we be guaranteed to see our team play but the broadcasts will come with some combination of our opponents' broadcast or, in cases where both teams broadcasts are controlled by DSG, we would have to listen to generic MLB announcers do our games, essentially turning it into a Game-of-the-week  or a playoff situation, totally removing the Cleveland-biased situation that I think we have all grown to love over the years.

 

Well, after doing some research, my customer service person came up with the following:

• Broadcasters change every year 
• Maybe I could look into other streaming services 
• She really didn't have any other answers for me and I should check back later.

Well, with that ringing encouragement I hung up and cancelled my automatic re-up with MLB.TV as well as my automatic re-up with MiLB.TV.  

Imagine having to listen to Guardians games on the Yankees network or with the guys who broadcast MLB games on YouTube!  I mean, once or twice a year but 162 games like that....just to watch the team I love?  I don't think so.  And if you are thinking you just turn down the sound and listen to the game on MLB radio with the Cleveland broadcasters, my experience is that the TV and the radio broadcasts are hardly even in sync although I am sure that the deep thinkers at MLB.TV would have to be able to find a way to make that work, right?  For those of us that had MiLB.TV subscriptions last year we can tell you how much of a sure thing that was not!

So, I repeat, I want my MLB TV...with a Cleveland broadcast with the Cleveland announcers I have become accustomed to hearing/seeing.

One more thing.  Right before I hung up I asked her "Is this a question that you are hearing a lot?"  Her response was that it was the first time she heard it today.  When I asked "What about before today" her response was something like we were just talking about the present ?!?!?!  She did volunteer that she had heard a buzz from other agents that this question was coming up.  Hopefully I am not alone in seeing how this could easily go sideways really fast and Rob Manfred's guarantee only takes our money, an increase over last year, without giving us the same product as we had last year.  Pick your words carefully, Rob, or it could look like your first name also said what you are trying to do to us.

Tuesday Thoughts: Best Super Bowl Hangover Remedy = Spring Training Starting

 No dog in the hunt, no horse in the race, no skin in the game.  I think the Super Bowl was better this year without Cleveland in it.  Now, next year, we're all in. 

Back to baseball

So without the angst of losing the Super Bowl on a last second field goal after a questionable penalty, we can jump right into baseball.  

1. Re-opening old wounds - OK, coming into the winter we needed three things: a solid catcher, a run-prodcing firstbaseman and a left-handed reliever.  I had it all figured out.  sign Abreu, trade for Murphy and AJ Puk.  But that didn't happen.  We lost out on Abreu.  We couldn't get Murphy and Puk, although both were traded for prospects who I KNOW the Guardians could have matched.  But we didn't get them. We had to watch while Gregory Soto went to Philadelphia for a set of prospects that, again, the Guardians could have easily matched.  Then we lost out on Puk, who went to Oakland for a guy who started 2022 as Miami's #10 prospect.  In 2022 he went the majors the first time and hit under .200.  We could have easily matched that price and had our second lefty, a quality lefty, to balance our bullpen.  I just don't know what the Guardians are thinking as I can't see a single lefty in our system who can be anything more than a mop-up reliever or a guy we throw out there and just hope he doesn't drown.  We still need a lefty reliever, in my opinion, but am losing faith we will sign one.   

2. What will the balanced schedule do to our competitiveness?   Well, I predicted 90+ wins looking at our schedule this season and I stick by that.  The playoffs REALLY favor the Guardians in that if they win the Central they are almost guaranteed to play the weakest wild card team AND play all the games at home.  I think last year showed that getting that win in the first round can help the Guardians once they have to play Houston or New York in the second round.  The Guardians play a different kind of baseball.  Seeng that less times during the season should favor, somewhat, the Guardians as their style is an anomaly compared to what the rest of the league does.  The fewer times you see a quirky team, the less chances you have to adjust to their style.  I think (hope) that this works in Cleveland's favor rather than having to play teams in their division 19 times where they really get to know your style.

3. Our starting 5 really has a chance to be close to the best in baseball.  I still say that having Civale and Plesac (in that order) as our #4/5 starters gives us one of the strongest starting staffs in the majors.  I mean, some teams can't even field 5 starting pitchers who they want to throw out there.  They, instead, use openers.   We don't have to do that.   I am still hoping that Plesac finds his cool and Civale can stay healthy.  All Plesac has to understand is that if he just pitches like a good #4 or a great #5 that he will help this team win by giving us more good starts than most teams will get out of their #4s and #5s.  He just has to realize what he needs to do to have the team win.  Civale...all he needs to do is to stay healthy from day 1 in spring training until the end of the post-season and he WILL help this team.

4. I think Myles Straw was hurt last year.  I think that impacted his hitting.  I think he will do better this year and really be a spark at the bottom of our lineup.  The similarities of his ABs to those of Ramirez after Jose hurt his thumb(s) was, to me, remarkable.  If he is healthy and stays healthy this year I think you will see the .260/.330/.380 guy we need him to be.

5. How will the rules help the Guardians?  No one knows how the pitch clock will impact hitters this year.  We don't really have any Mike Hargroves in our lineup.  Everybody seems to be ready at the beginning of the at-bat and between pitches.  I do think the larger bases. the pitch clock and  limitations on throwing to first will help speed-first contact teams like the Guardians.  On the other side of the ball...who knws.  I think the lack of shifting may turn out to be a wash for the Guardians.  I just didn't see them trying to beat the shift enough last year or, when they tried, show any aptitude for it.  Instead, they tried to hit through the shift.  Maybe that will favor them this year or maybe it will hurt them because they will take less pitches because they feel they can hit with the more normal defensive alignments and maybe will go for borderline pitches earlier in the count.  Who knows?

That's it for now but, as pitchers and catchers report, we should find out soon about guys coming in with injuries or those, like Zunino, who may end up being a little behind others as they are rehabbing.

Way Too Early Look At 2023 Breakout Prospects

 As we approach spring training all the focus is on the 40-man roster on how those guys, and maybe other guys on the cusp of making an impact on the ML team, are going to help us to win in 2023.  For a few, this also comes with a glimpse into the promise of how their skill sets can also help the Guardians to win beyond 2023.

As a prospect geek guy, though, I am going to take a look at 10 prospects who I think will take a major step forward, maybe even moving way up in or moving into our top 30 prospects. The higher the rating, the more of a move up the rankings I think this guy will make.  This listing favors guys who will make BIG jumps.  So if Gavin Williams or Logan Allen make the jump all the way to Cleveland this year, given their pre-season prospect ranking and the level they will start 2023 at, it won't be that surprising. However, if Juan Brito follows Jhonkensy Noel's path from last year and ends up in Columbus after dominating at A+ and AA, then that is a huge jump.   So, if you want guys who I think will fit that bill of jumping multiple levels and giving us performances to salivate over come next off-season, here is my list.

1. Ryan Webb - This is an easy one, actually.   Imagine Tanner Bibee's success and realize that Webb was selected one round before Bibee.  Having missed most of last year due to Tommy John surgery, he is set to break through this year and have the same Bibee-like ascent.  As we saw with the COVID season, the Guardians are aggressive with promoting players who have lost a developmental year.  Don't be surprised to see Webb start at Lake County and, if he has success, spend most of the year at Akron with an outside shot at a cup-of-coffee in Columbus.  Not hard to imagine that a guy like Webb will take off this year and, as a fan of the Guardians and a prospect geek, I could hope for nothing less.

2. Doug Nikhazy - Cleveland has a pitching development factory.  Nikhazy is a guy who needs some development to reach a significanly high upside (I am looking at Cliff Lee-type high).   Thus my enthusiasm for him to make a big jump this year.   When a guy has a swing-and-miss fastball like Nikhazy and peripheral pitches that are better than his fastball, it makes for a good situation for a pitching development staff like ours.   The Guardians are somewhat unusual because they have, in recent years, not let their pitching draftees pitch in their draft year.  As a result I think their pitching development may be slowed a bit.   I think this makes it likely that the second year with some of these guys may be a lot better than the first.  He had some truly awesome games.  He had some truly bad games.  His strand rate must have been over=the-top as his WHIP was pretty high.  The key thing is that his stuff allowed him to pitch out of trouble and he had a low H/IP in his first year in professional baseblal.  Harnessing his control, with his stuff and his ability to miss bats AND barrels of bats when he does give up contact, combined with Cleveland's development system, means he is primed for a breakout year.

3. Jose Cedeno - This ranking is based on three things: (1) 2022 DSL stats, (2) his position (catcher) and (3) his swing. These are all fueled by scouting reports and video views. Normally I don't include DSL guys in my rankings because they are so young and, as a result, so unrefined that any ranking is based on high-end ceiling with no thought to high-end floor.  I see Cedeno as an exception.  I have fallen in love with his swing, which appears to me to be unvelievably solid for a 17-year old.  It will likely be hard to see his development explode if he stays in the AZL this season but if the Guardians push him to Lynchburg, he may look a lot like Yainer Diaz which, as all know now, is a really good thing.  Plus, unlike Diaz, I think Cedeno will stick at and be an above-average defensive catcher.  In my mind he has the potential, way down the road, to be as good as Bo Naylor on both sides of the ball.

4. Jonathon Rodriguez -  This is more of a hope than a certainty.  Rodriguez found his power stroke last season and then showed plus power on his winter league team.  The goal is three-fold for him (1) optimize his pitch selection and, thereby, increase his walk rate, (2) hit for better average, meaning using all fields when coupled to his pitch recorgnition and (3) continue to be on the steep part of the cursve relative to his power development. It is up to Rodriguez and the player development staff to make this work.  As he was one of the youngest players in his draft class it is not out of the question to think that last year and this winter were just the first leg in the steep part of his development.  Thus, 2023 might even be better than 2022 in terms of results.  He could easily tear up Akron and than use the hitter-friendly Columbus ballpark to further cement his place in the Guardians' future plans.  Looking over various prospect listings I am clearly much higher on Rodriguez than the 'experts' are.  I think this year will put him on everyone's radar.  

5. Dayan Frias - Nother middle infield prospect...yawn...The thing about Frias is his winter league performance which led to him being the starting SS for the Columbia WBC team (after holding that position for their Caribbean series entry).   This is not like being the starting SS for the Czech WBC team.  There is a lot of competition for a country like Columbia.  For a guy like Frias, who is an afterthought in our infield prospect pecking order, it is huge that he is well-thought of.  His hitting has been an issue but I think that if you look at his winter league stats and compare them to those same stats last year you can see the growth.  I think his high K numbers at Lynchburg and his relatively low OPS were an aberration caused by his young age for that level.  Defensively he still looks great this winter and his offense has been superb, as he mirrored his early pro career with more BBs than Ks.  

6. Juan Brito - My poster child for bad trades by the Guardians, you gotta imagine that trading a guy like Nolan Jones, on the cusp of going off as a major leaguer, would bring back someone the Guardians really, really like.  Given that they had to roster him you have to believe that these smart people had to sense that he was ready to blow up this year.  I mean, not like Albert Pujols blow up but, still, at least like Jhonkensy Noel 2022 end-the-season-in-Columbus blow up.  Otherwise, why would you trade for a guy who played low A last year when the development path for a guy like that puts him in the majors for the first time AFTER he has already run out of minor league options?  So I am going with the Guardians' experts here (even in the face of the Tobias Myers-Junior Caminero fiasco) and saying that they have to be right...right?  So, by definition as I love my team and would like nothing better than Brito going off this year, I am guessing that he will and that we will all be patting the Guardians' brain trust at this time next year for the Jones-for-Brito deal.

7. Ethan Hankins - This is too easy of a pick to come ture.  Former high round pick, besieged by injuries, never able to show his true ability, now finally healthy and the Guardians put him at low A Lynchburg so he can dominate and he does, carrying that momentum up to Lake County for the last two months. Basically, injury-driven ZERO performance up to this year to performance suitable for his skill set in 2023.   Of course, another scenario is that they see they have to protect him from the Rule 5 again this winter and they say, 'heck with it, let's push the guy' and he struggles at the beginning at Lake County, rights the ship to be great to the mddle of August and then struggles significantly at Akron while still flashing plus stuff across the board.  Basically, he shows he could be great with more development and patience.  Under those conditions, the Guardians have the tough choice of whether to protect him on the 40 next winter.  A pleasant problem to have, really.

8.Justin Boyd - This is another easy call, considering he did a good impersonation of Mario Mendoza last year in his debut.  Guy comes in with great OB skills, an advanced college approach and good speed.  He is likely to have a big season and I predict he will end up at about .310/.395/.400/.795  25 SB/10 CS while splitting time equally between Lake County and Akron.  Guys like this are just built for success in the lower minors.  Don't know if his success will translate to AAA or the majors (see Ka'ai Tom) but I predict this trade will look good for Cleveland by the end of the year.  It may look good for Cincinnati, too and that would be my hopo as Will Benson appears to be a very giving, well-grounded individal despite his struggles in making it to the majors.  Now, for the PTBNL to be catcher Logan Tanner :-).

9. Gabriel Rodriguez - His 202 season was a disaster and, at times, it looked like the Guardians were trying to limit his playing time to 'hide' him so that he wasn't as obvious a Rule 5 target this winter.   He obviously had some injury issues but I keep reminding myself that this guy was recently a top prospects and that he has it in him.   I am gong to nickname him "Phoenix" as I think he is going to rise from the ashes of his 2022 season and get into our top 20 prospects this season, causing our front office heartburn has they have to then find a way to protect him this coming winter.

10. Mason Hickman - I gotta admit, this has been a personal favorite of mine for a couple of years now.  I did not see, with his pedestrian stuff, how the Guardians could waste a draft pick on this guy in the 5-round draft of 2020.  He was the classic 6-10 round pick of the Guardians in any draft as they had plenty of picks to play with where they drafted high-risk, high-reward guys.  But, in 2020, it was hard for me to understand why they even drafted a low-ceiling, medium-floor guy like Hickman.  Then I started looking at his stats and realizing that his average fastball velocity was only mediocre but seemed to be better in the first 2 innings of each game and his results were pretty good in the first inning of games.  Seemed like the peformance of a guy who had the potential, with his secondary pitches, of being a setup guy like Stephan as Hickman's fastball would play up in shorter, relief stints.  Last year was the first inkling of that being true and I expect it to continue this season.   He could even get a cameo in Cleveland this year if his performance convinced them that they were going to roster him this coming winter, anyway.

Even The Moves That Don't Make Sense Make Sense

 Today is a day that didn't seem to make sense if you were a Guardians fan.

But at least some of it really did.

The day culminated with the announcement of the WBC rosters.  One player who is going to play in the WBC for Columbia is catcher Meibrys Viloria.  We entered this year with 5 catchers competing for 2 jobs in Cleveland and 2 jobs in Columbus and maybe one of the two jobs in Akron, truth be told. Before this was made official the Guardians signed Zack Collins to a minor league contract.  The question is, why?  Well, Viloria was supposed to use ST to learn our ML and AAA pitching staff and maybe the AA pitching staff, as well.  So in steps Collins to provide extra catching.  In many cases you see younger catchers get ST invites and that may be happening.  But what is also happening is we are bringing in more veteran catchers to, I think, help bring along the pitchers who will be in Cleveland AND at AAA this year.  It may be that not all of these guys even make it through ST without getting cut but, right now, with Viloria gone, Collins makes more sense.

Yesterday we traded away Will Benson and it cleared a roster spot.  Today we filled that spot with a very unlikely RHP Jason Bilous who we got off of wavers from the White Sox.  He does not appear to be the second coming of Enyel De Los Santos, folks.   I don't read too much into this acquistion because  I see him being DFA'd when we have a better option, with the hope we can keep him and have him work out his issues at AAA or AA.  This claiming followed by DFAing is fairly common in the off-season so his stay with us may be short-lived.  To me this means that we will still fill this spot with a quality pitcher, just not sure who that will be yet.

Speaking of the WBC, here are my thoughts:

Cal Quantrill - Him pitching in the WBC is very surprising.  Playing for your home country is great but he is a #3 starter on a contending team.  The risk of ruining his ML season is, to me, a bigger consideration than anything he could do for Canada and my suspicion is that they expect him to do a lot.

This is also true for Andres Gimenez.   He will be expected to do a lot for Venezuela.

Bo Naylor playing for Canada is also a bit surprising but it may play into the idea that he has no chance to break spring training with the Guardians and so has time to recoup at AAA once the WBC is over.

Cade Smith's stock may also rise as he keeps being asked to play at levels above where you would expect him to play.  

Enyel De Los Santos being an extra pitcher for the Dominican is a bit surprising as he needs to solidify his spot in the bullpen early on to show that last year was not a fluke.  Maybe he stays in Guardians ST until has number is called.  Who knows.

I have already touched on Wolf, Palacios, Frias and Viloria and I think the WBC is built for guys like this.  

The other minor league pitchers signed, Knight, Diehl are likely just AAA guys for this coming year.  Don't see any De Los Santos or better guys there, either.   Last year we had a number of those guys rotate through a single roster spot with a lot of DFAs during the season.  Maybe the same this year but I think we are looking at our actual minor league relievers getting those shots this year.

Will Benson Trade - The Most Interesting Trade That The Guardians Have Made in 2023

 Didn't know how to begin this post.  Really.

What can you say about trading Will Benson.  So, forgive me if this post has some eye-rolling and tongue-in-cheek language in it, but let's dig in.

Will Benson to Reds, Justin Boyd and a PTBNL to the Guardians

• Trading Benson is no surprise.  
• Like Nolan Jones, Benson has had a long development path and has shown over his career a penchant for striking out and not hitting for much average.  And he hits left-handed and we have plenty of those outfielders in our system.  
• We still have 6 outfielders on the 40-man.  Palacios is a plug-and-play guy if injuries occur.  He won't kill you and Francona and the coaching staff knows him.
• Trading for Justin Boyd is no surprise for the Guardians
• He is a contact-first guy, with good OB skills, some basestealing speed and some positional versatility
• He is an overdraft based on his talent level, being valued higher by teams like the Guardians.  First eye-rolling emoji
• Getting a PTBNL is a plus
• If this guy is a high-risk, high-reward Dominican or guy who played in the AZL last year and who we have plenty of control with he would be a perfect compliment to Boyd who is a low-ceiling, high-floor guy.
• It makes me salivate to see the PTBNL we get in the Owen Miller trade (second eye-rolling emoji) because I see Miller as a better major leaguer going forward than Benson.   The return for Benson is the return we should have gotten for Miller, IMHO, and we should have gotten a second, controllable prospect in the Jones trade because Brito is such a lottery ticket and one who is clogging our 40-man right now.

What is a surprise is:

• That the Reds traded for another questionable outfield prospect.  Still, the last time they got a young outfielder who didn't make it in Cleveland (Tyler Naquin) it did turn out pretty well for them.  Still, they have a lot of veterans who can play the OF.  If they are seriously thinking about Benson starting in center field for them this year their expectations for a winning season have to be minimal, I would think.
• The Guardians, even though they still have 6 outfielders on their 40-man, made the trades for Miller, Jones and Benson before they knew how ST was going to turn out and made trades that won't help them for years, when their window is wide open now.  It is a gamble that you should make only if you are getting a very good return back.

What this could mean is:

• We are clearng a roster spot for
•  a backup catcher (not likely at this point as we don't have to have a roster spot until like March 28th).
• a lefty reliever (more likely).  Trading Benson in anticipation of this likely nets you more than what you would get if you had to DFA him.
• a trade for Brian Reynolds (questionable likelihood) 
• the return of Bryan Shaw (I love what he has done for this team over the years but I hope this trade has nothing to do with bringing him back)
• We just found a chance to get good value for a player we didn't think we would need this year and took it.
• We have either turned the corner on doing these minor trades correctly or we will, once again, get swindled on another one of these minor trades (3rd eye-rolling emoji)

You know (insert cliche(s) of choice here:

• Teams like who they like and we like contact hitters more than anyone else, even if they are redundant to who we just drafted.  It helps f the guy was an overdraft, too (smirking emoji)
• You can't truly judge a trade for years
• You gotta give something to get something
• If you come to the fork in the road take it
• It ain't over until its over
• When the going gets tough the tough get going.

Have a good night and tomorrow is a new day.

Thoughts for a Wednesday - NBA Pre-trade Deadline Addition

LeBron James

Congrats to LeBron James.   I have been following him chasing the all-time points leader title for the past two years.  Glad to see he made it.  

Interestingly, he reportedly spends $1.5 million a year on taking care of his body.   Although it will never happen, I would like to see major leaguers have to spend 1/10th of their annual net salary up to $1.5 million for documented costs of this type.  Again, pipedream but we are paying these guys lots of money with the only incentive for them to stay in shape is for these millionaires wanting to keep making more money in their next season.   Less incentive if a guy is on a long-term contract.    Doesn't seem fair to me.

World Baseball Classic Rosters - Guardians So far

So far it looks like we have the following guys playing in the WBC:

Richie Palacios - Netherlands 

Josh Wolf - Israel

Dayan Frias (?) - Columbia

These are the exact type of guys that should be playing.  Palacios has more potential to be a AAAA player than a consistent ML performer, although the jury is still out.  Still, on this year's team he is playing a depth role at AAA.   Wolf is oft-injured and not a great performer when playing so who knows if his major league dream will ever become a reality.   Arias, if he plays in the WBC, is not even in a lot of guys' top 30 Guardians prospects and, while I see him as a sleeper prospect for the upcoming season, he is not a guy we are counting on this year or even next year.  

I think that for all these guys their participation in the WBC may be more important right now than reporting to spring training on time.

Cavaliers Trade Rumors

Zilch, zero, nada, nothing.   Would love to have Markinen back although I don't know if he would it with the lineup now that Mitchell.   Still, it would be great to have the band back together again.  And then what to do with Kevin Love?    

Off-season Videos

More good stuff coming from Guardians Prospective Twitter.   Good to see some of our young guys already in Goodyear getting ready.  Will love to hear what the chatter is from spring training.when some of the younger guys that Todd has been highlighting in their videos report for ST in March.  

Off-Season Prospect Lists

Will have much more on this later but right now there are 7 listing of our prospects that have listed a #1 prospect.  4 have Espino, 2 have Williams and 1 has Valera.  

Looking at MLB Pipelines latest rankings Cleveland is tied with the Dodgers with 7 prospects in the top 100.  Baltimore has 8 prospects in the top 100. The O's have 2 pitchers, 4 infielders and 2 outfielders.  No catchers and light on pitchers and heavy on infielders. The Dodgers have 3 pitchers, 1 catcher, 1 2B, 1 3B and one OF.  The Guardians, in contrast, have 3 pitchers, 1 catcher. 1 SS and 2 OF.  So each system not only has prospects but a good balance at the top of their prospect lists.  Atlanta has zero prospects in the top 100, Houston, KC and Toronto have 1 each.  White Sox, Angels, Oakland, Philadelphia, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle all have 2 prospects in the top 100.  The major league average should be about 3 team and the 16 other teams have 3 or more prospects in the top 100.

Most of the rest of the teams either have few prospects or an unbalanced system.  For example, the Mets have 4 prospects but two are catchers.  Milwaukee has 3 but they are all outfielders.  Washingtoh has 3 outfielders, 1 pitcher and 1 3B.  

I love the Guardians balance in their farm sykstem (except for catcher, where I think they choked during the 2022 draft).  It should serve us well going forward.

Thoughts for a Monday - Super Bowl Week Begins Edition

 1. Regression

It's winter.   Not much real for us writers to talk about so projecting 2023 is generally a favorite subject.   Lot's of talk about regression of some of our younger players from their 2022 performance levels.  Favorites of prognosticators have been Oscar Gonzalez and Andres Gimenez.  While I totally agree that, everything else being static, that some underlying trends support regression of their performances in 2023, I also see the Guardians instructional system being able to somewhat nullify this natural regression.  

One of the things that has been missed in these discussions is talk about Franmil Reyes and Bobby Bradley.  While these guys, along with Owen Miller,  Oscar Mercado, Bradley Zimmer, Yu Chang have to be considered failures, I pose that these are actually successes beyond the average that other teams could have pulled out of these players.   The only evidence I have for that is the unexpected success that Steven Kwan and Oscar Gonzalez had last year and the improvement that Gimenez showed from 2021 AND that Reyes and Bradley are not even signed to minor league deals yet and that  Zimmer, Chang and Reyes had little to no success once they left Cleveland.

Instead of seeing what Gonzalez looked like pre-2022, look at what he looked like DURING 2022.  He used the whole field when he hit, how he ran hard and played the game the right way.  Gimenez improved in basically every offensive category last year.   I don't think that either of these results can be considered an accident nor do I think that the suggestion of significant regression makes sense of our players have put in the appropriate work in the off-season (somethng rumored to be a significant part of Reyes' downfall).

You can't make guys put in the work but, if they do, regression likely won't happen or it will be minimal.   All we need from Gonzalez and Gimenez is 95% of what they gave us n 2022 and I am actually looking for each of them to provide 105% of what we saw with them last year.  

2. WBC

I will start by saying that I am not a fan.  When I worked in industry I had a clause in my employment agreement that said I couldn't moonlight.  As a young man with boundless energy I didn't understand that.  As I got older I realized that my performance was going to be based on my preparation and concentration.  You can't effectively serve two masters and that is what I think that WBC participants are doing.   The WBC rosters should be limited to fringe major leaguers, minor league veterans and some guys who just never made it in US organized professional baseball.  Richie Palacios comes to mind as well as guys like Jake Jewell.    

I just don't think it is a good idea to put guys into nationalistic playing situations which get the adrenaline flowing as they try to make their home countries proud.  Add this to the fact that they are doing this when they are supposed to be slowly preparing themselves for the grind of a major league season and I think it could have an injury-related and stamina-related impact on these players, both short- and long-term during the upcoming season.  

This is especially true for the Guardians who could be one of the most negatively impacted teams if Jose Ramirez got hurt or had some other negative impact from participating.  

MLB is sort of forced to swallow hard and accept the WBC being when it is.  I just don't like it and never will.

3. Our Roster

I still see Tim Herrin and Will Benson as at risk for losing their roster spots.   I am thinking that with the slow-developing lefty reliever market that we have time to jump in and grab someone.  I just don't see Herrin as a guy who can make the step up to the majors, at least not at this point.  Given how Francona loves veteran relievers if he has the choice, I would like to think we will grab one of the available lefty relievers.

4. Our spring training invitees

Maybe this happens every year and my memory is just fading.  However, the list of additional spring training invitees that just came out is one of the most exciting lists I can recall as far as the likelihood of these guys actually making it to Cleveland this coming season.  

Logan Allen and Peyton Battenfield are guys I think can provide meaningful innings to the Guardians this year.  Maybe both in the bullpen, reprising some of what Eli Morgan did last year.

Cade Smith, Nick Mikolajchak and Andrew Misiaszek are minor league relievers who I can envision getting time in the majors this year, especially since we haven't brought in the usual Jake Jewell-type minor league veterans at the level we usually do.  While we might have to lose them on waivers during the year if we have a roster crunch, I think this is a make-or-break year for these guys anyway and if we get a read that they are just AAAA pitchers, DFAing them during the season might not be all that painful, at least for the Guardians' organization.  

Micah Pries and David Fry beings invited also gives a hint to the fact that the organization likes what it saw from them last year and that there is a glimmer of hope that they might provide useable ABs or be trade chips this spring and are here to audition for those roles in front of big league coaches and scouts.  Fry, especially, with his versatility and catching ability is extremely intriguing even though he is 27 years old.   Every team needs that 26th guy and he could be this year's Chris Coste, using an analogy for those of you with long memories.

Even Luis Oviedo getting a look as an extra arm in spring training is encouraging as they could have given that spot to any of a number of guys but chose to give it to Oviedo.

All of these guys getting invites to the ML camp mean they will be in camp longer and probably be more ready for their minor league seasons, if nothing else.   I think the extra views that Francona and his coaches have of these guys this spring will give them more comfort if they have to bring them up during the season.  Has happened in the past and I think, with good performances, it could happen again for these guys this year.  Again, moreso than for these spring training invites than for those of years past, as least using my memory as my guide.

State of the farm system - What we should expect at each level this year

Two things you can easily measure in the minors are winning and player development.  The more true prospects you have in your system the harder it is to win in the minors but the more true prospects you have, the more opportunity for the organization to get impact major leaguers out of them.  Teams that are more veteran are more stable and generally perform better.  So winning in the minors is, often, the opposite of a successful minor league development program.

Given the above, let's look at the Guardians minor league teams this year and predict how they will do and who their prospects will be and how they will perform.  Again, very early predictions.

Columbus

Lineup - The Guardians will have a relatively veteran lineup, with all of their prospects on this team likely to have played at least some AAA ball.  The outfield will be a bit unsettled but the infield and catching should be strong and contain a lot of the prospects on this team.  That being said, if these prospects don't perform well this lineup will be pretty weak.

Starting Pitching - We should have some veteran prospects here which will make it exciting but not signing minor league free agent starting pitchers this winter will make it interesting to put together a rotation in April.  Right now I only see Peyton Battenfield and Logan Allen as established starters.

Bullpen - This should be the strength of this team.  Given how,set the major league bullpen already is if it can avoid injuries, there is a backup of minor league relievers who will start to pile up at AAA.   If the Guardians are smart they may even employ more of a Tampa Bay openers philosophy to get all these guys work.  That may mesh with not having a full complement of AAA starting pitching.

Prediction - This team is set to have a below .500 record.  They don't have enough veterans on their AAA roster and likely will be one of those teams that produces not enough wins but does produce prospects who help the Guardians win this year and in the future.  In that sense, the prospects passing through or getting to Columbus this year may the best in recent memory.   That would be pretty impressive considering how many rookies we had make their major league debuts in 2022.

Akron

Lineup - This lineup is set to have more suspects in it than any other team in our minor league system.  Depending on whether Micah Pries and Johnkensy Noel start in AAA,  there is a chance that every position player on this team is either a minor league veteran organizational player a prospect who risks being turned into a suspect if they don't improve their performance.  Catcher will be a real area of need for this team unless a veteran minor leaguer ends up at AA.  Catching is a real weakness in this system in AA and high A.

Starting Pitching - This will be the strength of this team and if the manager manages well and the rest of the team plays the right way, will be more than enough to help this team make the Eastern League playoffs.  Like most good minor league teams, however, whether they can win in the playoffs will depend on how many of their better pitchers are called up during the season.

Bullpen - Given the backup at the ML level and AAA, this bullpen should be good as relievers wait their turn to get to Columbus.