Thoughts For A Monday Evening - This Could Have Been SOOOOO Much Worse!

MAJORS

 OK, not the best title for a positive post but it was the first thought that crossed my mind after Jose Ramirez walked off the Cardinals on Sunday.   

After the Monday game in Baltimore I remembered that thought and how even the games that we win by a relatively comfortable margin (5-0, for example) really come with scoring in only 1 or 2 innings.  

So we have won 2 in a row, 3 of 4 and stand 5 games under .500, 3 games back of Minnesota who lead Hoston 4-1 in the 7th.  While it is fair to mention we are 1.5 games behind Detroit this is not relevant is only the only team to be concerned about is the one at the top of the standings as only one team is going to the playoffs from the AL Central, no disrespect meant to the Tigers or White Sox.

On Sunday there were lots of heroes to go around.  Besides Ramirez, Xzavon Curry threw 3 scoreless innings to keep us close.  Steven Kwan, Josh Bell and Mike Zunino had two hits and Eli Morgan delivered good relief, again.  If Hunter Gaddis had not had the hiccup in the 5th he was in line to be one of the heroes, too.

On Monday it was Logan Allen.  You can say all you want about, well, it's the first time the Orioles saw him, teams have no book on him yet, etc., etc., etc.  Well, I watched the game.  He had them off-balance the whole time, causing many swings and misses at balls out of strike zone and him pounding the corners and edges of the rectangle superimposed on the centerfield camera view.  De Los Santos was lock down and Stephan had a big enough lead that my hands were only slightly sweaty when he put the first two on (more sweaty when they announced that Clase had begun to warm up).  Francona screwed up in Allen's last start by letting him go out there for the 7th inning after he gave us a 2-1 lead going into that inning. Showing that he was nothing if not stubborn with a higher pitch count than in his last start but Allen didn't buckle, getting out of the 7th today in fine fashion.  Still not the smartest move by Francona but it worked out this time.  Seeing Brennan get 3 hits (2 doubles off a tough starter and a sharp single off a lefty reliever) while playing solid defense again in right and Arias making 3 outstanding plays at 3td that I think Ramirez may have made one or two of them, at the most.  

So, I thought to myself, this could have been a lot worse...but it wasn't.  It was actually positive.

ROTATION

Lots of talk is going on about who will be in the rotation when Civale and McKenzie come back.  Here are my thoughts:

1. I think we are not at the point that we start replacing the current starters with Civale and McKenzie.  If fact, neither has looked sharp in their last outing, actually the last 2 for Civale.  I think Civale needs 1-2 more starts and McKenzie needs a solid outing (2 runs or less in 6 innings) on Tuesday for either to be considered ready for the majors.  Both these guys have been hit hard at AAA which is not a good sign when they are going to be thrown into ML games and expected to perform like they did at the peak of their careers.  

2. When they are READY to come back to the majors, assuming no injuries occur, we obviously have too many starters. So what do we do.  It has been proposed that we send some of these guys to the minors or the bullpen.  Here are some scenarios and my thoughts:

a. Civale off the IL, Gaddis to the minors - On paper, this sounds the most logical.  But looking at the numbers I am not sure it is.  Civale has alternated suck years and good years.  Even this year he has a good outing (April 1st) followed by a suck outing (April 7th) before his IL stint.  In fact, his two ML outings this year look eerily familiar to Gaddis' two most recent outings this year.  Add to this the point that Civale has had two bad outings in a row at AAA and doing this move is just rearranging the deck chairs.

b. McKenzie off the IL, Civale off the IL and have your rotation be Beiber, McKenzie, Allen, Bibee and have one of Quantrill or Civale in the rotation and the other go to the bullpen and Gaddis goes back to the minors as does Battenfield when he comes off the IL.  While on paper  this sounds reasonable, remember that Civale has NEVER pitched in relief professionally and while Quantrill has had a lot of success as a reliever he is, at the moment, a statistically much better option as the 5th starter than Civale is.  Still, all things considered, if you were going with 5 starters you would likely want to move Quantrill to the bullpen as he has had success there AND he has struggled in the rotation recently.   Plus, we have a reliever, Karinchak, who might need to be demoted.  He has spent time in the minors before and could use the break but if we do this we burn his 3rd minor league option.  

c. Go with a 6-man rotation for a while - While this sounds appealing as a decision that avoids a decision, it could only be really effective once Civale (possible Friday start) and McKenzie (possible Sunday start) are back on the roster.  At that point we have an off day on Monday, June 5th, another on June 12th and another on June 19th.  Basically, we will be playing 6 days a week for the next three weeks after this weekend meaning every starter only gets to pitch once a week and totally screws up the typical preparation that have strived to perfect their entire professional careers.  Plus, we will be jamming these guys back in the rotation when their AAA results (i.e., hard contact rate) is not what you would want to be.

d. Leave Civale and McKenzie down on the farm making rehab starts for another time through the rotation.  Yes, you risk having another day like Gaddis had against the Cardinals on Sunday but there is no guarantee that Civale could better that performance just based on veteran guile and deceptive stuff.  

For me, at this point, the best answer is to go with option B with Quantrill going to the bullpen.   As 4 of his last 6 starts were clunkers I think we need to try someone else and, with the off days, maybe we don't even pitch Civale every 5th day.  I still question if we bring Civale up for his Sunday start as I don't believe he will necessarily be better than Gaddis but if the FO and Francona want to do that, well, that's OK.

MINORS

I have been hard on Brito as I expected so much more than he has shown  for us which, BTW, is exactly what his low A numbers last year said that he SHOULD be showing us at High A this year.    I just wanted him to break out ending the season by raking at Akron.   Well, Brito is at Akron and I hope he rakes.  As I said, the math says that he needs to master or almost master AA this year in order to not reach the expiration of his 3 minor league options before he settles into the majors for good.  So, he is 2-7 with a walk and at least one outstanding pick of a hard hit ball at him in his first game on Saturday.  So he is at AA right now and, as such, is right on schedule IF he performs well at Akron the rest of the year or does that and gets a cup of coffee in Columbus like Noel did last year.

Ryan Webb is still trying to find his way.  His body language tells that story clearly.   He has to be feeling the pressure when Bibee, drafted one round after Webb, is already dealing in the majors and Webb is having trouble getting High A batters out.   We can only wait as he has missed so much baseball over the last several years that I think he just needs more experience and by the end of the year we will be looking back and figuring out when in 2024 he will be making his ML debut.  I hope.

Cody Morris - What happens to him after his IL stint is done is up in the air.  As him coming off the IL will not doubt cost us to DFA someone who could have helped the team this year or in future years, I don't think the FO will want to put him back on the 40-man and then immeidately option him to the minors, costing us a player and one of Morris' minor league options.  So I think we stretch out his rehab as long as possible and then he joings the bullpen in Cleveland.  I just don't think we need to rush that process.

Still waiting for the Owen Miller PTBNL

Looking at our minor league depth chart it looks like we have Bo Naylor, Gavin Williams and Brayan Rocchio ready for ML action.  However there isn't a single other prospect I can identify who is having even an average year.  Some, like Cantillo, have had incredible performances or, like Lampe, incredible stretches during the season.  But looking at our minor league system right now I don't see a single prospect who looks like a solid MLer right now.  Not something I really want to say but let's hope as summer rolls around some of these guys take off, sprinting up the steep portion of their learning curve and, by the end of September, we are swimming in prospects the same way we looked to be swimming in true ML prospects this past winter.

So, time to enjoy the rest of the day as the Guardians won a good one today, I don't think anyone got hurt at the ML or MiLB level and we have more baseball tomorrow, and a lot of it! Have a great evening everyone!

Thoughts for a Saturday Morning

 Guardians

1. Even the wins are painful and nerve-wracking.  I envy my wife.  As a Cardinals' fan she waits for result to see if she wants to watch the game.  Me, I am like that moth drawn to the bug zapper.  I just can't look away and watch the Guardians from start to the very end.  As such, watching them get 3 runs on one hit (again) and then hold on to the end due to letting the starter go too long and then a shaky bullpen (except for De Los Santos) (again) and hoping against hope they can somehow find a way NOT to lose the game, is no way to make baseball and enjoyable watch.  

2. I saw a question to Hoynsie asking about trading Rosario, Straw and Beiber.  The issue with their tradeability is that the longer Rosario plays the worse he looks, lowering his trading value.  Ditto for Straw.  The more times Beiber goes above the 100 pitch mark the less his value becomes as who knows when his arm could just explode.  For me, the longer we wait to pull the trigger the less these guys will be worth because Francona player Rosario and Straw all the time and pitching Beiber too much is only lowering their trade value without, in my opinion, increasing our chances of winning.  

3. On the note of trading those guys, I am still in on the Dodgers but now my trade would be Beiber, Plesac, Rosario, Straw, Eli Morgan and Juan Brito for Bobby Miller, Michael Busch, Gavin Stone, Dalton Rushing, James Outman, Josue DePaula, Joendry Vargas, Logan Wagner and Chris Taylor.  We are substituting Taylor for Sheehan and, therefore, taking on the remainder of Taylor's salary to balance the books on this trade.  Outman looks like a flash in the pan but the core of Miller, Busch and Stone would be what makes this deal for me along with DePaula and Vargas who bring up the very low levels of the minors for us, giving us some hope for the future and Rushing and Wagner, who do the same but one rung higher.  Taylor, though not doing well over the past two seasons, adds versatility and a veteran presence to the locker room as well as playoff experience.   Would this trade be raising the white flag on this season.  I hope not but that depends on how McKenzie, Williams, Civale, Gaddis and Morris fit into our team and whether Francona can maximize the young players we have.  

4. Where is our PTBNL for Owen Miller?

Minors

1. It is good to see some movement in the farm system rosters this early.  Genao being able to play is good.  Putting Furman at his appropriate level is better than having him dominate at Lynchburg.  At least we can get a read on him when he is playing at LC.  I don't believe Brito has earned the promotion to Akron but in the same way we did with Noel last year, you almost have to have Brito at AA and hope he performs well.  As this is the first of his 3 option years, if he doesn't do well at Akron the rest of the way it almost guarantees he will be out of minor league options before he finally sticks in the majors.

2. Nothing in the performances over the last few days that gives me any more confidence in the farm system.  Still hoping for and seeing some glimmer of breakouts by Jo Rodriguez and Noel with hope for miraculous seasons from Holland, Bracho and Planez.   

3. Our bullpen is so solid we don't need to look at AAAA players like Toussaint and Kelly but I think each of them should be getting a chance in the majors on SOME team this year, especially with guys like Ian Gibault pitching for the Reds.  

4. Today's pitching in the minors looks like it could make for very exciting watching.  I hope to see Williams put in another good performance, Burns continuing to perform and convince the Guardians he is ready for AAA, Tommy Mace getting on track and Parker Messick cementing that it is time for him to transition to Lake County so we can start getting a read on him facing more age-appropriate batters.

5. June 5th is approaching.  I can't wait to see the ACL team play.

6. Also can't wait to get Boyd, Haffer and others integrated into our farm system.  Really ominous that we haven't heard anything about these guys.  Every time we wait for information (except for DeLauter) the information is devastating (Campbell and Zibin with arm surgeries).  Time for some good news, I hope.

Thoughts for a Thuraday: 40-man roster (s**t is about to get real) and Owen Miller PTBNL - Where Fore Art Thou?

BRINGING BACK INJURED PITCHERS -UPDATE!!!!

 Advice to the Cleveland Guardians: Don't rush getting Morris,  McKenzie and Civale back unless you think they can go Ohtani on the league.  We need hitting, ptching is less of an issue.

NOTE: Watched McKenzie's start tonight.  He is not ready.  1-2 more starts in Columbus to build up his strength and get him sharpened up after missing almost two months.  Not the time to bring him up, especially when he is not ready and it is possibly going to cost us someone from our 40-man to do it.  Shouldn't have to do that before McKenzie (or Civale or Morris) is ready.  

Watching Civale's second start it is apparent to me that he could use 2 more starts, at least, to get back to the majors.   It was hard to tell about Morris but he, too, looked like he could use some more work before being added to the 26-man.

The thing is, none of these 3 guys is the cure for what is wrong with this team.  Here are my thoughts:

40-man roster - We will need to clear rosters spots for Morris and McKenzie when they are ready to pitch in the majors or be optioned to Columbus for more work.  Right now the guys, in order, who could be DFA'd (with corresponding moves, if appropriate):

• Cam Gallagher along with bringing up Bo Naylor and making Zunino the backup. - Look, keeping Gallagher is a luxury and not a necessity.  Naylor needs to be up and we need the roster spot.  In a pinch we can brng up Lavastida who is hitting the ball and catching much better than he was last year or in ST.
• Juan Brito - Look, the stats bear out what we thought before the season
• Brito can take a walk 
• Brito has borderline power
• Brito is only passable defensively
• Brito has very little speed
• There is NOTHING to indicate that Brito will have an accelerated development path that will allow him to establish himself in the majors before his 3 minor league option years run out.

Time to rip off the bandad and DFA Brito and acknowledge that the trade with Colorado is a bust

• Richie Palacios -  Some people would rate him as #1 on the DFA list.   His defense in center sucks.  He is a slap hitter who hits left-handed and draws walks well and is relegated, really, to left field.   I think that any guy who is relatively young and hitting .300+ in AAA with more walks than strikeouts and has great energy is worth more than a guy at high A with middling tools and a running option clock.  Palacios is the next man up in the outfield in my opinion and you just don't DFA that guy.
• Juan Gonzalez - Two months ago this would have seemed impossible, but following the Bobby Bradley and Franmil Reyes DFAs,  I have watched every one of Gonzalez's AAA ABs this season and I just don't see him making the changes he needs to make.   I see him just as lost at AAA as he was int he majors, he is just getting more production because the pitching is weaker.  So, while I think he makes it through the end of the year in Columbus as we keep him as an insurance policy, it is not out of the question that we DFA him in mid-season as we did our previous two would-be power hitters.
• Tim Herrin - No one knew why he was rostered this winter and so DFAing him now should not be a shock.  However, if we do tank it this year I could see them bringing up Herrin to see what we really have in him before making a decision on him in the off-season.
• Jose Tena - DFAing him would be a sign that our farm system is starting to fall apart.  But I could see us doing that given that his repeat at AA is not going too well.    I imagine they would keep him for the rest of the year to see if he turns things around.
• Zach Plesac - Some wanted to do this before the season.  I said to give him a chance but he failed miserably.  I thought he would use his time in AAA to dominate to get back to the majors but he is now falling deeper into mediocrity.   Hard to believe that he could be this bad but he is.  While I think it is a bad idea to just give him away for free with the majors being so think on starting pitching I can't eliminate DFAing him as a possible addition-by-subtracton outcome, I could hope we would trade him for something viable first.

In any case, I hope the Guardians don't kneejerk to bring these guys back up because Civale doesn't look ready, Morris needs 3-4 more outings, at least, and I will know more about McKenzie after his start tonight.  But I think we may need to take a breath before we bring any of these guys off the injured list.

OWEN MILLER PTBNL

Miller is hitting .346 on a 100 AB sample size, helping Milwaukee to first place in the NL Central so far.

We traded Miller to Milwaukee for a PTBNL on January 15th meaning the PTBNL has to be identified by June 15th.   

Who is the PTBNL and when do we expect to see him?

None of This Tracks and Other Things

 I was really going to title this post "My Thoughts on the Current State of the Cleveland Guardians."

The text of the blog was then going to be "My mother taught me that if  couldn't say anything nice then don't say anything at all" and that was going to be the entire post...because there is nothing nice I can say about this team right now.

But I was thinking about not just what was being done by this team but what was being said about this team by management and what was being done by that management to try to make this team better.  

So let's go over that:

Francona has said that it is really hared to win in the major leagues the way the Guardians play baseball.  

Antonnetti said, when describing the reason why the Guardians didn't bring Bo Naylor up, that their plan was to play the players who they felt gave them the best chance to win.

Francona also said that he just couldn't find places to put Tyler Freeman into games.

Francona also has had David Fry up for 23 days now and he has gotten 12 ABs.

Freeman has been up since May 6th and has hardly played, either.

Gabriel Arias has been up all season and has played a lot, putting up numbers very reminiscent of Oscar Mercado and Bradley Zimmer.  Today he K'd, again, and grounded into a late DP to kill a potential rally.

Rocchio was up for a few games while Jose was on his bereavement leave but was sent back down.  He did make two errors.

Rosario keeps playing and making mistakes.  I read a tweet from Quincy Wheeler that said that since the Guardians got him Rosario is almost the worst SS in baseball defensively.  His offense is not 

But none of this tracks.   If your M.O. is to win as many.games as possible, and what you are doing is not working, why not try something else?   So let's talk about that:

Francona said it is hard to win the way Cleveland is playing but they were beaten by Romy Gonzalez, not by Tim Anderson or Yoan Moncada.   We were beaten because our best hitters could not do what Gonzalez did when presented with similar situations.  This crap about having a hard time winning the way we play doesn't track when the White Sox only hit one HR in this series, the same number as the Guardians.  They only had 5 XBH hits in the series, 2 doubles apiece by Gonzalez and Benintendi and the aforementioned HR by Grandal.  We actually outhomered the White Sox in this series.  We were beaten because our hitters didn't hit at all and Francona played the same lineup, essentially, the whole series, Francona didn't play Freeman and Francona left Allen in too long in the second game just because he hadn't thrown many pitches, not considering that it is not the pitches but the number of times through the order that is important.  

Not brnging up Naylor doesn't track if your offense is struggling and your current catchers can't throw out runners, the big dig against Naylor.  Not playing Freeman doesn't track if Rosario is stinking it up and Arias is only mediocre at the plate..  Not using Fry doesn't track as your catchers are providing no offense.. Not keeping Rocchio up doesn't track as he is hitting so well right now AND plays in the Guardians' style doesn't tradk.  Leaving his starting pitchers in too long doesn't track as it is not the number of pitches but the times through the order.  Hey, I can even understand leaving Clase as the closer as, except for maybe De Los Santos, I don't see anyone who has a chance of being successful in that role on our team or in the minors.  That, to me, does track, even if it is not working out right now.  However, one thing that doesn't track is trusting his veterans when they continue to screw up game after game.  It also doesn't track that Francona keeps playing the same guys, especially the veterans, when they don't produce.  If it is so hard to win the way we play ball then why not at least try some other guys who might help you win now when your veterans are struggling.  

Management is saying one thing but doing something else: They are favoring the more expeirenced players and not holding them accountable for their constant screwups.  That is what they are doing and that is why we aren't winning.  Hey, even if we go on a 20 game wnning streak starting Friday, it won't change what we are seeing right now: Veterans getting free pass after they screw up and rookies sitting on the bench, rusting away.  

Look, Francona has hated rookies ever since hs has been here and only plays them when he has to.  He makes them earn their playing time when his veterans continue to get passes when they screw up.  He would rather stick to his struggling veterans and hope against hope they get hot.  This is NOT trying to win games.  It is trying to not get his veterans mad at him.  He lost his job in Boston because the veterans were running the clubhouse and he favored his veterans.  He needs to realize in Cleveland that you play your rookies when your veterans suck...like they are here.

OTHER THOUGHTS

Steven Kwan should never swing and miss on pitches ABOVE the strike zone, especially with two strikes on him.  Today he did that twice.  He is hitting so many fly balls that even his hits are on bloopers that are high in or above the strike zone.   That is fixable if he will only change his approach.  But he is not MADE to change his approach so he doesn't.  Typical of how Francona treats more experienced players.

Today Josh Naylor got a hit.  But in that at-bat, when we needed to start a rally, the pitcher threw four pitches outside the zone and Naylor swung at two of them, the second swing going for a basehit.  If he would have just stood there he would have been on base.  Obviously it wouldn't have helped his stats as much to do that, and maybe that is the point.

In the 9th Gimenez singled and was out trying to stretch that into a double...while being down 6-0.  Some managers would bench Gimenez while Francona would only bench someone for doing that if that someone was a rookie.  

Sure, the bullpen didn't give up a run but the White Sox were up 6-0 to a team they KNEW wasn't coming back.  It was obvious that they were mailing it in when hitting so as not to embarass the Guardians any more than they already had AND to avoid anything that would be bulletin board fodder to help the Guardians get fired up the next time the two teams played.  So even the one plus in today's game was meaningless when you consider the situation.

One last point on Rosario.  Looking at the stats he is totally untradeable right now.  We would be lucky to get the type of return we got for Will Benson.  His stats show that he simply can't help a team win, either defensively or offensively.   We have simply kept him too long and now he is pretty valueless as trade bait.  And, unless he makes a huge turnaround, he won't be a positive influence on the field n this team winning games this year.  So, given that, why wouldn't we just float him out there and get what we can for him right now...if the goal is to win as many games as possible.

The 2023 Amateur Draft - Recapping 2022 and what we learned

 The 2023 amateur draft is coming up and it looks like the same people are running this one for Cleveland as ran the last couple.  Two years ago the Scott Barnsby-led draft gave us Tanner Bibee and Gavin Willaims, among others, in the famous pitcher-dominant draft.  However, the 2022 draft does not look as productive.  In fact, I can say that the 2022 draft class, as it looks right now, could end up being the worst draft class for Cleveland in my memory.  This draft class, which featured left-handed slap-hitting, fast college players, pitchability college pitchers and overslot (some WAY overslot) high school pitchers is not exactly working out for them.  Not a single player selected in this draft looks like they were a good selection.  This lack of success is being compounded by the fact that this draft was expensive, with Cleveland spending the absolute most OVER the MLB-imposed draft budget that they have ever spent, including spendng the most overslot for picks after round 5 then they have ever spent, which caused them to pay hefty penalties for going over their MLB-determined draft budget.  

I will go even further by saying that NONE of these guys look like major league prospects and that every player selected after round 10 looks like an organizational player who will be lucky to even get a cup of coffee at AA someday, except for maybe Logan Clark, a HS catcher from California and their last pick, Shawn Rapp.  Now, admittedly, picks 1, 1S, 6 and 10 are injured and picks 7 and 8 were HS pitchers who will debut in the ACL this year, but this draft looks bad.  The Guardians can't even hide how bad it looks by their attempt to artificially inflate some of these guys' statistics by starting highly-drafted college players as overage players playing against weak competition at Lynchburg.  No, friends, this draft, right now, sucks.  It is early and things may change but when you go with a plan like above, which included drafting an injured player as your first selection, and drafting guys with limited upside at most other spots in your draft, the draft gurus with the Guardians have made a bed that now the rest of the organization and all of us fans will have to sleep in for years to come.  

This is a shout out to our draft team to remind them they need to do a much, much better job in 2023 than they did in 2022 or our farm system, which is already reeling this year due to promotions and underperformance, may go deeper in the tank...something a small market club like the Guardians can never afford.

I think this draft is showing us that drafting left-handed slap hitters and hoping they develop power is foolhardy, drafting college pitchability pitchers is not a good strategy EVERY year and paying overslot in later rounds is a very risky move.  Our farm system was lacking in catchers and power hitting outfielders and corner infielders last year.   Some balance, as I have said before, was needed and there were draft prospects available who could have addressed those needs while still being considered 'the best player available at each slot that the Guardians drafted in. So, instead of trying to fit the square peg of fast, high OBP guys, pitchability college pitchers and overslot HS pitchers into the round hole of our draft slots, we should have gone a different direction, even if that meant drafting 21 college and HS power hitters to balance 2021! 

Since I have made these bold statements, let's look at how our 2022 draft class is doing to see if they hold water:

1. Chase DeLauter - Still out with a broken bone in his foot.  He may actually be able to play sooner than expected but will likely open the season in the ACL so we might still not see him in Lake County or (hopefully not) in Lynchburg until August.

1S. Justin Campbell - Diagnosed with ulnar neuritis in his pitching elbow, he still hasn't played in his first professional game yet, even though this type of injury doesn't have to be that hard to come back from as I understand it.

2. Parker Messick - Watching him, he looks like a short, non-athletic LH college pitcher dominating younger low A batters at Lynchburg.  Because of his high draft slot his talent and what the Guardians have done in the recent past would tell you that Messick should actually be starting his professional career in Lake County.  Needs to move up to Lake County so we can see how he does compared to his 2021 Guardians' draft peers when they played at that level in 2022.  

3. Joe Lampe - Early in the season showed exceptional bat-to-ball skills and a little power.  Still, I would have expected him to be hitting better as he is hitting only .187 over his last 75 high A at bats.  Plus he has been tossed from at least one game and even showed some hothead characteristics in college.  

4. Nate Furman - Starting at Lynchburg against younger competition he is hitting over .300, walking at an exceptional rate and stealing basessucessfully and in bunches (25 vs 3 CS). His success is against younger players.  He should be moved up unless the goal is just to pad his stats to make it look like he is a good pick. 

5. Guy Lipscomb - Really old for his league (1.1 years older than average), he is taking advantage of younger pitchers and catchers, taking lots of walks and hitting for doubles-producing power and stealing extra bags and straight steals of bases in bunches (28 steals, 1 CS).  He should be playing in Lake County as he is age-dominating these younger players.

6. Dylan DeLucia - No word on him yet.  I have to imagine he is dealing with an injury of some sort but certainly this time off is not helping his development.

7. Javier Santos - The first lottery ticket in this draft for the Guardians, he throws hard but needs a lot of work on his control and, of course, then work on his command.

8. Jackson Humphries - Paid a way-over slot bonus, as a HS pitcher, he will be in the ACL this year so we will get the first sign of whether he was worth the bonus.

9. Austin Peterson - His fastball sits at 88-90 mph and he can't even beat low A hitters with it as he has given up 43 hits with it in 32 innings.  As a college senior 1.3 years over the average age in the Carolina League, he can finesse these hitters  (5 walks to 30 Ks) to help keep his ERA down (2.25) and make it look like he is successful.  However, he just looks bad especially compared to how Will Dion did at the same level as an overage pitcher last year.  

10. Jacob Zibin - Out with TJ surgery.  His $1.1 million bonus gamble does not look to be paying off.  I doubted that he was worth that much at the time of the draft and what I have seen and heard since makes me think I was right, not counting the TJ surgery.

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11. Magnus Ellerts - He may be finding a niche for himself as a reliever although the fact that he is overage to be playing in Lynchburg, at least he isn't failing at the same level like some of the guys listed below.

12. Jack Jasiak - So far he is looking like an organzational arm and not much more than that.

13. Tyrese Turner - Looking like an organizational player, as well, not putting up good numbers even though he is playing against younger competition in Lynchburg

14. Pres Cavanaugh - Hurt so I haven't been able to see him much but his placement at Lynchburg as a college bat screams organizational player.

15. Adam Tulloch - His placement and performance are that of a guy who is an organizational player.

16. Logan Clark - Only saw him in ST and in some video clips but I think we may have something here as this guy, as a HS kid, has time to develop into a good catcher and a good bat.

17. Angel Zarate - Placement at Lynchburg says he is an organizational guy although his performance says there is a sliver of a chance he could be more.

18. Zach Jacobs - Placement and performance says organizational player

19. Geo Rivera - The second lottery ticket of the draft for Cleveland, he is a big dude and is young enough to maybe become something but he suffered from injury in ST and I don't know his status for the ACL season.

20. Shawn Rapp - Performance-wise he is looking like a decent late-round pick as he has performed well enough to already have been promoted to Lake County.  Note that none of the other guys on this list except for Rapp have earned a promotion so far.

So You Want The Guardians To Trade Prospects for Veterans?

 One of the common themes I have been reading is that the Guardians are/like hoarding prospects.  That they should have traded some of them for veteran help AND still should.

But you have to have prospects that other teams want in order to make those trades.

Recent results should teach us that maybe that isn't true. 

1. Sean Murphy trade - The A's ended up accepting a trade in which they got ZERO top 100 prospects in baseball for Murphy.  They got back Kyle Muller LHP (Braves #1), Freddy Tarnok RHP (Braves #8), Esteury Ruiz OF (Brewers #8) and Royber Salinas (Braves #6) and veteran catcher Manny Pina for Murphy and major league reliever Joel Payamps.

The point I am making:  It was rumored that the A's wanted Daniel Espino among other top prospects/young major leaguers.  This seems not to mesh with what they ended up with.  Clearly the Guardians could have put together a package that easily matched or surpassed the rankings that the A's got from the Braves/Brewers.  Say, Logan Allen, Will Brennan, Joey Cantillo and Xzavion Curry.  A steep price, to be sure, but one that should have blown away the Braves' offer IF the A's valued our prospects the way they were valued by others.

2. Nolan Jones for Juan Brito - A trade that was a head-scratcher for writers covering the Guardians and a terrible trade for those of us who were looking at it from very outside the organization.  Jones was our 7th ranked prospect at the time and Brito was someone who couldn't break into a mediocre Rockies' top 30, who was only in low A and who was at risk of being lost in the Rule 5 if he was not rostered last winter.  The exact kind of guy who shouldn't cost too much.  But he cost Jones.  

The point I am making:  No way Jones could have been the #7 prospect in a strong Cleveland system and only be worth a guy like Brito who, now that we have seen him, looks EXACTLY like what I thought he was when we got him:  A guy who likely will run out of minor league options before he ever makes his ML debut, if he ever does make his ML debut.  

Two examples where our prospects were over-valued by consensus.   

So if we are looking at our prospects and thinking we can trade them for help, from my perspective we don't have ANY prospects (as defined by guys who not in the majors right now) beyond Gavin Williams and maybe Joey Cantillo who other teams would even value at all.  To understand this let's look at our current top 30 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline:

1. Gavin Williams 

2. Tanner Bibee in the majors)

3. George Valera - Has been hurt twice this year and is the poster child for a guy who we might over value.  He is all potential and playing in leagues young for his age rather than potential ML star.  Yes, looking at his results in light of his age he looks like he has a lot of upside.  However, the proof is in the puddng and he hasn't shown enough yet to be a key piece in a trade.  Plus the injuries this year lessen his value.

4. Bo Naylor (in the majors)

5. Daniel Espino - Injured too much to have much value right now

6. Brayan Rocchio - As the 3rd middle infield prospect on the roster this year (Arias and Freeman) and recently sent back to the minors after a couple of errors and a 2-10 start to his ML career AND showing very little power this year, I think his stock has dipped this year despite his .335 BA at Columbus.  As a part of a prospect package he would be good.  As a key to a trade, I don't think he has that kind of value right now.

7. Chase DeLauter - injured and, given his history and the questions of how good he really is based on his early season in college last year, makes his trade value close to zero.

8. Logan Allen - majors

9. Angel Martinez - Hitting .193 at AA this year making his value low.

10. Jake Fox - His .571 OPS this year negates what he did at Lynchburg last year (.755 OPS as a younger player in his league).  His trade value is almost nothing right now.

11.Justin Campbell - His ulnar neuritis and the lack of him pitching this year make his trade value almost zero.

12. Angel Genao - His early season injury clouds his value and makes him almost untradeable for anything of value at this point.

13. Jaison Chourio - A good prospect but he isn't even playing ACL ball yet so his value is probably lower for others in a trade than it is for the Guardians keeping him.

14. Cody Morris - His injury history and perception as probably a setup guy or multi-inning reliever limits his trade value.

15. Petey Halpin - As a young player for AA he is keeping his head above water with a .681 OPS.  Still, that makes him a piece in a large trade but, without the breakout year a lot of us expected for him, he has no real trade value.  This 'young for his league' stuff is something that I don't think scouts really consider.   It is how good is the guy and how does he project in the majors.  Halpin doesn't currently look good at a top-of-the-order guy with 2 SBs and an OBP of .311.  Could he end up being good?  Sure and he likely will have value in the future if he keeps developing.  But not now.

16. Juan Brito - His early season work this year shows that he has little trade value as high A guys who hit .250 without power are not highly valued as a lot of his OPS of .754 is buoyed by his high walk rate.  Plus, as the scouting reports say, besides no power he isn't even that fast.

17. Joey Cantillo - Looked great in his second go-round at AA early this year.  But that is it, really.  It was his second year at AA.  How he does in AAA will determine his trade value and his first start didn't really help that as it showed all the command and control issues that have been the question marks all along. Still, a lefty throwing 97 mph who also has other playable pitches and had a 13 K game in 5 innings at AA cannot be ignored.  How other teams value him is the question.  given the Murphy and Nolan Jones trades, I doubt they currently would consider Cantillo as a mandatory but not critical piece in any veteran trade.  So, they want him but don't highly value him...different than the Guardians likely perceive or NEED to perceive him.

18. Jhonkensy Noel - I thought he would break out this year enhancing his trade value. He is hitting .190 in his first AAA season so doesn't appear to be anywhere near ready for the majors and, as such, he has little trade value.

19. Parker Messick - The fact that the Guardians started him at Lynchbure (similar to #9 2022 draftee Will Dion) shows that his current value is not great, especially in a trade as his own club doesn't think he could have handled his pro career in high A as other, recent college pitcher draftees have.

20.Tanner Burns - Soft tossing lefties in their second year at AA don't have a lot of trade value, except as a throw-in if teams are trading us prospects.

21. Jose Tena - He is just not producing in his second year at AA (.183 BA, .538 OPS).  Watching him he seems to has lost his edge for the game of baseball.  I don't see him hustlng, he seems lost at the plate.  It almost seems like he is pouting thinking he is ready for AAA based on his performance at Akron and Columbus last year.

22. Milan Tolentino - Came in with questions about his bat but had a .750 OPS with 29 SB last year.  This year, however, he is hitting .165 with a .518 OPS at Lake County.  He looks more like the guy we drafted than the guy who played at Lynchburg last year in his second season at Lake County.

23. Jacob Zibin - Out with TJ surgery.  He has no trade value right now.  I didn't like this selection (for the money we paid) at all and nothing I have seen so far makes me like at any more, and that is WITHOUT the TJ surgery setback.

24. Tim Herrin - No trade value other than a throw-in at this point.

25. Wuilfredo Antunez - Doing well at Lynchburg but no power and little speed kind of damps his .909 OPS, in addition to this production only being at low A

26. Hunter Gaddis - He has shown not to be a QUALITY starter, just a PASSABLE starter in the majors.  His worth will be a reliever down the road but, since he hasn't been allowed to devleop in that role, it doesn't help his trade value.

27. Justin Boryd - Injured and has no trade value as a result, even if you like his tool kit, which I do not.

28.Doug Nikhazy - His lack of control (27 BB in 23 ip) has negated any trade value he has.

29. Joe Lampe - His total slap and watch approach and his average speed and just passable CF defense really doesn't make him a good prospect...or have any real trade value.

30. Jack Leftwich - His 9.18 ERA at Akron makes his addition to our top 30 prospects show that there is not much, if any trade value below him in our system if he is our 30th ranked prospect.

So, there you have it. Their poor performances this year make most of our prospects valueless in a trade for a veteran who is more than a rental.  It also shows that with the graduation of Bibee, Allen, Freeman and Arias that our farm system is really looking pretty weak at this point. Our top prospects are not producing and no prospects that I have seen have taken huge steps forward this year.  

So I don't see us having prospects other teams would want, making it much more reasonable that we trade veterans FOR prospects at this point, rather than trying to get a veteran when we have little except for essential young major leaguers to trade.

Thoughts For A Sunday Night - The Trade - Version 4

 We are now 20-26.  I don't know if it is worse to be outscored 30-5 in a 3-game series or to lose 3 games in the other team's last AB, twice with all our closer has to do is, well, close.

Looking at this series and the season so far, it still appears to me that we need to do something bold.  I see two ways of thinking about it:

• Trade some our excess prospect capital, especially middle infield prospects, and get a power hitting outfielder in here.

• Make a much bolder move and move on from some of our veterans to restock the upper levels of our minors while adding enough in ML ready guys that they don't throw this season away..

As far as the first one, I still see 3 issues

1. Cleveland is not the type of organization that trades for an expensive player from another organization.  They are built to keep their prospects and develop them into affordable major leaguers.

2. Cleveland is not good at trading prospects and getting veterans back.  Look at the players who have played for them this year.  They were either developed by Cleveland, obtained in minor moves (Rule 5, minor league free agents) or obtained when Cleveland traded a veteran to another team getting young players or prospects back.  I can't remember the last time the Guardians made a good prospect-for-major leaguer trade and, even worse, they tend to give their prospects away for very little or nothing when they do trade them.  For example, the more-infamous-every-day trade of Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers trade.

3. They actually have very few prospects to trade right now as, besides Gavin Williams and, MAYBE, Joey Cantillo, they have very few prospects in their system at the moment who look like quality major league regulars.  I know this is kind of harsh and I will cover it in a later post but, right now, it is the way it appears to me.

THE TRADE

There are a number of teams the Guardians can trade with but I have been, and continue to be, focused on one team, the Dodgers.  LA was pretty much trashed in their last series against the Cardinals.  They need help in a number of areas.  

When you make a veteran-for-prospect trade you want to give up veteran(s) who have little or no future with your club but represent quality for the team you are trading with.  We have a number of those:

1. Shane Beiber - He is a quality ML starter with 1.75 years of control who will never sign with the Guardians.  He rightly wants to get paid in his next contract but he wants to get paid as a Cy Young award winner and he is not that right now.  

2. Zach Plesac - The Guardians are done with him, I am sure, because they have so many other pitchers at or close to major league level.  Plesac represents the perfect change-of-scenery project for a team who feels they can fix what ails him AND who is in need of veteran starting pitching now.

3. Amed Rosario - Whether any of us like it or not, Rosario is gone after this year.  He likely will be the, by some distance, the best free agent SS on the market this winter and a contender who needs a SS now and who has the money/right situation could see him as a real value.

4. Myles Straw - Straw is showing who he is this year.  Last year was an offensive aberration but this year is passable offensively at the bottom or the lineup and is still a Gold Glover, even though defensive metrics seem to be frowning on him this year.  Still, for a contender in need of quality defense in center field who can live with his limited offensive production in CF and wants some continutiy from a very reasonable long-term contract, Straw is a great fit.

5. Eli Morgan - Why Morgan, you may ask?  Morgan, to me, is the kind of guy who does it with smoke and mirrors.  He is a quality version of Adam Cimber and guys like that.  He is a gimmick pitcher who is surviving because his fastball has become ML average or a tad below, making his changeup and other off-speed pitches play WAY up.  In the long-term, however, guys like him will generally be 6th/7th inning pitchers who may be able to go multiple innings.  Very valuable to teams like Tampa Bay but easily replaceable given the Guardians' farm system.

6. Juan Brito - Every trade of prospects by a team needs at least one prospect in return so that the team TRADING prospects has at least one coming back that can have potential even when all the veterans have left the team.  Brito fits that bill and, of course, frees up a space on the 40-man roster for us.

So, which team needs all these players?  The answer is, unequivocally, the Dodgers.  Here is what I see:

a. They are using a 34 year old journeyman at SS, Miguel Rojas.  Rojas's offensive production is so bad they have used veteran, 32 year old supersub Chris Taylor at SS in about half their games this year.  They could use Rosario's hitting and steady, but mediocre defense at SS right now and I think they would think they have a good chance of signing him to a reasonable deal that would keep their luxury tax within reason and help keep them from losing draft picks and pay crazy penalties in the future.

b. They have a lot of starting pitchers out right now and need some veteran starters, especially at least one quality, playoff-tested starter.  Beiber, with Plesac as a throw-in, would help them out.  

c. Their centerfield situation is a mess.  It was so bad that at the beginning of the season they started a guy who I thought was more of a middling prospect, James Outman, in CF. To the surprise of most people, Outman started very hot.  He hit .292 with 7 HR in April with an OPS of .991 but has hit .200 in May with 2 HR and 23 K in 60 AB in May with an OPS of .657 and has shown no real signs of pulling out of it.  Plus, his defense in CF is only passable and, in the minors, he has played a lot of RF and LF.  They have played veteran Jayson Heyward , a career RF and AAA outfielder Trayce Thomspon in CF in about half their games.  Clearly, Straw would be an upgrade defensively and, given Outman's declining prduction, Straw's limited offensive upside (speed, good baserunning, better hitting than last year).

d. Their bullpen is being taxed based on how bad their starting pitching is now and they could use a fresh arm who is very different in stuff from who they have now.

So, the Dodgers would benefit hugely from obtaining these players.  Even though they are comfortably in first place, leading by 7.5 games over San Diego, the team in their division who can realistically challenge them over a full season, the Dodgers are NEVER playing for the regular season.  With their talent and payroll they are ALWAYS playing to be solid in the post-season.

So I think the Dodgers are the perfect trading partner.  But wouldn't trading Beiber, Straw, Rosario and Plesac destroy the Guardians chances of winning the AL Central title this year?  It is more likely than not going to have that impact but looking at the AL Central there is still an outside chance that they could, with young starting pitching, more consistency from their bullpen and upgrades on offense still be competitive this year and in the future.  

So who do we need to get back from the Dodgers in this trade that would likely go down as the biggest blockbuster trade in Guardians history?  The answer is simple: MULTIPLE ML ready or almost ML ready top prospects as well as a couple of long-term plays who have years before they are Rule 5-eligible and who migh actually make the majors close to their first Rule 5 winter.  

The Dodgers have all those players and I think would be willing to part with all of them.  Here they are and the reasons why I think the Dodgers would be willing to part with.  Here is the list:

1. Bobby Miller  RH SP- Miller missed the first month of the season and has only pitched 4 games this season, totaling just 14 innings as they build him back up.  He throws hard but still needs some finishing off, something the Guardians are good at doing.  Interestingly, the Dodgers are going to bring him up to start on Tuesday, starting his FA and arbitration clocks when they don't have to as he won't be Rule 5-eligible until next winter and he isn't really stretched out this year.  This sounds, to me, like they are showcasng him for a possible trade.

2. Michael Busch -2B/1B/OF - Busch is a bat-first guy with great power who had his first cup of coffee in the bigs this year.  His power is down this year which is likely concerning to the Dodgers and, as they are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole by trying to play a college !B man at 2B in the pros, they could see him as expendable.

3. Gavin Stone - RH SP - Stone has already been up for a start this year, starting his FA and arbitration clock early and rostering him when they didn't have to do that until after the season (similar to Gaddis and Curry last year and Logan Allen this year).

4. Dalton Rushing - C - A 2022 draftee, Rushing is dominating high A this year with his power and OB skills.  He is looking like a steal in the second round.  His defense is likely below average, explaining him dropping to the second round.  

5. James Outman - OF - Outman's struggles have been described above but he still is a power-speed-walk guy who is an intriguing prospect, albeit, slightly less valuable to me than a healthy George Valera.  Nevertheless, the Guardians could buy low on this guy given his cratering offensive production and the fact that is probably best served as a corner OFer.  Let's be clear, though.  Outman is a required throw-in to this trade but NOT one of the major pieces to it.  The Guardians would be taking a gamble that he can get back to his early April form either this year in Cleveland or with more seasoning this year in Columbus.

These are the first 5 players I would ask for.  All of them are top 100 prospects in baseball with the exception of Outman, who was a top 100 prospect until he exceeded his rookie status this year.  Rushing, at 67, is the lowest-rated of the 5.   Four of them are either in the majors or ML ready as they have been or will all be in the majors by this Tuesday.  Note that this list allows the Dodgers to keep their #1 overall prospect in C Diego Cartaya and their #5 prospect, Ryan Pepiot who is a RH SP who is major league ready but currently on the 60-day DL as well as their #6, 8 and 9 prospects

Two more players I would require to make this trade would be a couple of guys who were recent international free agent signings, one who has yet to play a professional game and one who 

6. Josue De Paula - OF -  He was signed for $400,000 in the Jan 2022 signing period and dominated the DSL least year to the tune of ..349/.448/.522/.970 last year as a 16-year old.

7.  Joendry Vargas - SS = The Dodgers #1 signing in the Jan. 2023 international free agent signing period, his bonus was near $3 million as he was the #3 ranked international free agent in the Jan. 2023 class.   To put this in perspective, our top signee, Welbyn Francisca, was rated #28 in this class.

There is one final player I would want to offset Morgan going to LA.  

8. Emmitt Sheehan RHP - While Sheehan is at AA and won't see the majors until sometime in 2024, he has late inning reliever written all over his stuff as he throws in the high 90s and has enough stuff to have struck out 58 in 34 innings at AA this year. He is mostly a fastball/changeup guy like Morgan but obviously has a much better fastball, although he is still a year or so away so the Dodgers are getting present value and we are getting future value with upside over Morgan's upside.  Sheehan as a short, 5'10" RHP, is being developed as a starter but I don't think that will stick and that his role will be more like Morgan's role as a multi-inning reliever.

So, that's it.  I have mentioned this trade in one form or another 4 times now but am mentioning it again.  For those of you who want instant gratification of winning this year you will absolutely HATE this trade.  For those of you who are prospect geeks like me and have seen that young, stud prospects can succeed in the majors right away AND see the advantages of a young, cheap roster in terms of maybe being able to add salary this winter, you will love this trade proposal.  The Guardians FO will clear close to $25 million off their books this year and probably $16-$17 million next year.  And for all you Dolan-is-cheap people, you will love to be able to add this trade to your list of cheap Dolan moves to talk about this winter.

Thoughts for a Wednesday Morning: Things Have To Evolve

Reading Various Internet Sites, the angst that exists among Cleveland fans falls, for once, not on Dolan but on the front office and the coaching staff.  

• The preparation for this season was not optimal - We were told that Tyler Freeman was going to be getting outfield practice in spring training and that apparently didn't happen, unless you want to count shagging balls in batting practice because I did not see that he played in a game.  I am not sure that he even played a game in the outfield in Columbus.  Ditto for Rocchio, who played no games at 3B in Columbus but played there in his first game for Cleveland. 
• Francona is making some of the most irritating decisions I have seen during his time as a manager.  The icing on the cake was starting Arias at 3B yesterday.   He had three rookies on the bench (Fry, Freeman and Rocchio) who could have started there but he put Arass in and he went 0-4 with 3 Ks.  
• The front office refuses to pull the trigger on bringing up Bo Naylor.  Now, I know fans tend to want a quicker trigger finger when someone doesn't perform than management does but this team needs a spark.  I don't want to think that we are on the brink of a total collapse but let's just say that we need a spark.   I get not wanting to move on from Zunino and his $6 million contract.  I get not wanting to get rid of your security blanket in Gallagher, but Bo Naylor needs to be called up today.  Arias should be sent down, Naylor should be brought up.  It's not even a no-brainer, it's a mandatory move right now.
• While I agree that trading Shane Beiber is a good idea if we can get value, if you think you want to trade him because he is not as valuable as he used to be, realize that the return on that trade would not be worth as much as you might want.  I do think Beiber's ability will not be higher than it is right now but I don't know if trading him right now would help our team this year or next year.  It would have to bring us a long-term outfielder and a top prospect or two back (Michael Busch, Emmitt Sheehan and Josue De Paula or Dalton Rushing come to mind).  IF you think you could get that return, let's go for it.
• I disagree that we have hoarded our middle infield prospects.  I just don't think we could find a trade where we got equal value back.  Certainly if people around baseball really thought Nolan Jones, our 7th prospect, was only worth Juan Brito, or less, how much would they have valued Jose Tena and Angel Martinez?   Better to let those guys develop and improve their value so we COULD trade them for something than to give them away for nothing like we did with Jones.
• You are in Cleveland.  You can't throw 6 million or 16 million away on a free agent.  We did that with Zunino and Bell.  If Bell continues his upsurge we may get what we payed for.  Zunino looks like more of a waste.  Having the FO make huge gaffes like Zunino is not what you want to do with an owner who is opening the purse strings somewhat over previous years.  
• People have not talked about Will Brennan that much but he is really struggling.  I think, perfonally, he will make a much better major leaguer than Richie Palacios but, right now, I have to seriously start thinking about bringing up Palacios and sendding Brennan down.  Francona is so enamored with defense that I doubt he wants to send Brennan down.  Still, it is this disjointed thinking that allows him to play a bad hitter because he provides better defense.   Like I have said, defensive runs saved is a meaningless stat if you can't score any runs.   Teams today should be built on scoring runs and starting pitching, filling in the bullpen and defense after you have established those two things.  The classic mistake the Browns made was drafting Tim Couch but not drafting and expansion drafting stuff offensive linemen to protect him.  There has to be a similar hierarchy in the majors and that hierarchy CANNOT place defensive runs saved as high as Francona and the FO value them.  
• I think we are in a good place if McKenzie and Civale come back healthy and strong, which I think is a really possibility as they won't have been ground down by the season so far and shortening their season may actually make them fresh down the stretch and in the playoffs, if we get there.  We won't need to bring up Williams unless we trade Beiber and it would then be a no brainer to bring him up.  As I said, if you can get value for Beiber dump him now.  It's not like we don't have options to replace him.

Thanks to Everyone Who Views This Page!

 When I started this blog I did it for one reason: I wanted to find a place where I could write my ideas down and those people who wanted to read them could.  

This is the real problem with chat rooms.  Someone once told me that people don't want to go to a fan site and read opinions that call their favorite club into question.  

So, a few years ago, I decided to place my opinion in a place where those people didn't have to read them if those opinions upset them and the only people who would read my opinions were ones who wanted to hear what I was saying.

Last week I mentioned here I had passed a milestone.  I made my 1000th post on my Guardians Perspectve blog site.  

Yesterday I reached another milestone: The number of unique reads I have had on my posts.  

I won't share that number here except to say it is greater than 1000 (duh!) and less than 1 million.  

So, this post isn't about baseball as much as it is about saying thank you to the people who found my blog after I left/was kicked out of all the Cleveland Indians/Guardians chat rooms I once posted in.  

I don't know why I was ever in chat rooms, frankly.  Posting your own opinions on a blog site you started without having to have ANYONE read it is, well, liberating.  That's the key, really.  Nobody else has to read this site for me to feel like I have made my opinion known.

But some people DID read what I wrote and this post is a thank you to those people.

Oh, BTW, the Twins fought really hard tonight before losing in extra innings to the Dodgers in LA.  I don't think the Twins are going anywhere and I think we will be battling them the whole season.  Hopefully soon we go all St. Louis Cardinals and start some incredible offensive run while maintaining good pitching and get on a winning streak.  I still believe in the Cleveland Guardians this year.  I think the best is yet to come with this team...but it's nice once in a while to get help from another team to help us close the gap.  

Thanks and now, after this short intermission, it is time to start talking baseball again.

Thoughts for a Monday: Our Hitting Development Staff Sucks...Or Does it?

 Let's talk hitter development here.  Until last year, this was an area where the Guardians player development staff looked REALLY inept.  They couldn't seem to develop hitters, especially in the outfield.

Then, all of a sudden, last year Kwan, Gonzalez and Brennan showed up and Gimenez developed and the players in our farm system (Noel, Freeman, Rocchio, Valera, Martinez, Naylor and younger guys like Halpin, Fox, Tolentino and older guys like Pries and trade acquistion David Fry made big jumps in how they were valued by the organization.  I mean, even Nolan Jones and Will Benson finally started to show why they were drafted so highly.  Gone were the days of Ernie Clement, Bradley Zimmer and Oscar Mercado flailing away at the air.  

So it looked like we were riding the wave of better hitter development in our farm system.  

Then came this year.  Gonzalez regressed, we saw how little Benson and Jones were valued around the league, realized that we couldn't develop Owen Miller into a successful big league hitter.  I thought, well, every organization has misses.  

But then I looked up and down the organization.  Here's what I see:

UPSIDES

• Walks are up around the organization.  Lynchburg, with their young hitters, were averaging over 6 walks a game with a little less than 9 strikeouts a game.
• Stolen bases are up around the organization.  Lynchburg has 105 through 33 games.  Only FIVE major league teams had that many in the entire season last year. 
• High level prosepcts like Freeman and Rocchio were flourishing at AAA as were lesser prospects like Palacios, Fry and Pries.

DOWNSIDES

• Very low percentage of homeruns.  In fact, Aaron Bracho, the forgotten man in our organization due to sub-Mendoza performances, is the only positive surprise at 6 HRs.  Through 33 games Lynchburg has 8 HRS.  That is Dominican Summer League production, a league where raw 16 year olds play.  And that's with us stacking our lineup with older college players
• Regression by guys like Brennan, Gonzalez, Martinez, Tena, Fox, Noel, Gabriel Rodriguez, Sanquintin, Lavastida.
• 2022 draftees like Furman (5 XBH), Lampe, the entire Lynchburg roster, Brito all have below average power, or at least that is what they are showing.  Slap hitters that the league is just finding out are slap hitters.  Watching the Lynchburg game last night the outfielders were playing our hitters like they did pitchers when pitchers were required to bat. Yikes!
• And we are still acquiring slap hitters, like Justin Boyd in the Benson trade.

So, is our hitter development staff successful or was last year just a blip and are they back to where they were considered to be pre-2022: PATHETIC

The answer is that it is too early to have an answer.  However, right now we are apparently NOT producing guys who the bright minds in the Guardians FO think will help the big league club and the prospects we are producing (e.g., Nolan Jones) apparently don't have much value on the trade market.

I think a good example of the Guardians 'approach' to hitting in the minors is exemplified by Lynchburg.  They are leading the Carolina League in runs per game (6) but are only hitting about .250, .267 with RISP, averaging 9 runners LOB a game and have only 8 HRs.   The approach that seems to being taught is to be patient and take your walks (something that is really easy to do in a low A league like the Carolina League), slap at the ball and steal bases.  While all those tactics can produce runs at low A ball, they just won't be effectve at higher levels where pitchers have more control, teams will not respect hitters without power and so the at bats ending with a runner on base will be less, rendering the stolen bases irrelevant.  Even in low A this approach yields Lynchburg only a .500 record.

I disagree with the approach the Guardians appear to be teaching their hitters.  I disagree with their draft approach which seems to feed into this take-your-walk and slap the ball approach, I disagree with acquiring more of these slap and patience guys (Brito and Boyd).    You have to have power to offset when bad things happen.  Without it, just like last year's Guardians, you have to be too perfect all the time.  There is no margin for error.  They have only played one game this year where they won by 5 runs.  Most of their wins and losses come in games decided by 1 or 2 runs.  A little more hitting, a little more power wins those games.  But they aren't signing, drafting or trading for guys who can do what Naylor has done the last 3 games, take a game over with a HR.  The results, to me, couldn't be more obvious.  While their approach is a nice smoke-and-mirrors play, it isn't something that can stand the test of time by itself.  You need some power to go along with that slap hitting, patience, base stealing approach.  If you don't pick some players who can exhibit power, if you don;t trade for those players, you just aren't going to win.  Hey, I could be wrong. As I said above, time will tell.  But the Guardians have invested so much financial and intellectual capital in this slap and run approach BEFORE knowing whether it will be successful long-term, I think they are making a big mistake.  

But time will tell.

Memories of the kind you don't forget...Mother's Day version

 Obviously this day makes me think of my mom.  Raised in the north, a strong, tough woman.  Happy Mother's Day, Mom.  

And happy Mother's Day to all the mothers and expectant moms out there.  

In thinkiing about this day and the memories I have of it, I was once again amazed when I saw, over this weekend, a historic memory that I hope I never forget.

Josh Naylor, three days in a row, hitting the go-ahead HR in the bottom of the 8th inning to give us a chance to win.  Although Clase blew one and he and Stephan were shaky in the other two, we still won the series.

So, throughout the rest of my life I will remember the weekend that Josh Naylor became the hero, over and over and over again.  

Miraculous, historic and epic.  Baseball drama at its best.

One point about his heroics.  I truly believe that he got pitches to hit because they didn't want to necessarily have to pitch to Josh Bell who is heating up.  So, our prime off-season acquisition also played a secondary role in these games.  

Guardians:

• Francona's lineup decisions are puzzling.  Giving Arias too many chances.  Continuing to play Zunino, not giving Freeman or Fry a chance.
• On that note, of our three catchers that played this weekend, Fry made the best throw to second base trying to get a runner trying to steal.  Imaging that!
• Bibee, facing another team for the first time in his career, looked great again.  Francona, in typical Francona fashion, left him in too long.
• Clase is really scaring me.  EVERYBODY is barreling his pitches.  

Minors:

• Ryan Webb looked a little shaky again today.  Waiting for him to get more consistent.  Five walks just aren't going to cut it.  Good news is that he appears healthy.  Threw 92 pitches today.  That's a great sign of his health.
• Joey Cantillo looked strong today until he walked two guys in the 5th and was lifted, his only two walks to go along with 3 hits and 6 Ks in 4.67 innings.
• Rocchio keeps hitting.  
• Good to see George Valera playing and in CF.
• Lampe and Palacios are slumping but Naylor is still in stride with his hitting.
• Maybe he never gets over the hump but Noel continues to look right on the cusp of going off.
• Move Furman and Messick up to Lake County.  Do it now.

Troll Alert! I'm Feeling Pretty Salty Tonight

 1. Do you realize if Clase had not blown 4 saves we would be in first place by a game now?  When your team is sucking and you need a spark to win, what in the freakin' heck do you think your closer blowing games like this does to your team morale?  I mean, can a guy throwing 96-97 really be hurt?  Don't know but something isn't right and, on a team where success is achieved by walking a thin line, we CANNOT afford to have our closer blow close games like this.

2. The end does not justify the means.  Naylor's track record about his ineptitude facing lefties outweighs, by a million times, any success he had in one game.  It was the stupid play to let him start and leave Freeman and Fry stay on the bench.  What message is Francona sending to the players?  'Hey, I hate rookies so much that I am not going to give you a chance when you are most likely to be successful and, instead, I am going to play a guy with a hugely smaller chance of being successful just because he is a veteran.'  Sounds like the message I heard tonight.  What about you and, more importantly, what about the players?  I guess if you sit these guys on the bench for a week to 10 days and then put them in for a game they are likely to fail.  Talk about self-fulfilling prophecy!  

3. When we sent Owen Miller to Milwaukee we were supposed to get a PTBNL back.  So who and when?  The 'when' is easy.  The trade has to be completed by June 15th, 6 months after Miller was traded to Milwaukee.  The who is more difficult.  Normally there is a list players that the Guardians would get to pick from.  Sometimes there are two lists, one if Miller would produce little or nothing for Milwaukee, another list if he was a more productive, or even a pivotal player.  Well, right now Miller is hitting .323 for the first place Milwaukee Brewers.  I would think we are clearly in 'productive' territory here.   So the player we get back should have SOME significance.  For example, if J.C. Mejia got us David Fry...well, you know what I am saying here, right?  Maybe a guy making his ACL debut like 2022 international signee like OFer like Luis Lara or a 2022 draftee like catcher Matt Wood.  I would be looking for a low minors guy who might take a 2-3 years to develop instead of someone we have to roster right now.

3. Surprise, surprise, rookie pitchers become less effective after a couple of starts and, generally, much less effectve after teams start to get 'a book' on the guy.  We are seeing that with Bibee, Battenfield and now Logan Allen.  This shouldn't really surprise anyone and it shows that the road may get rocky for these guys, and the Guardians, before it gets smoother.  Hope not but, in anticipation of that, the offense needs to get pumped up to account for that.

4. Get Brayan Rocchio to the majors now.  He is a switch hitter and, I think, will at least provide us with some base hits and some speed.  At least Freeman and Fry can provide some offense.  Gabriel Arias needs to be sent down.  Get Bo Naylor to the majors now.  He can't be any worse than Gallagher or Zunino and they should DFA the former.  If Brennan continues to struggle give Palacios a chance.  None of these moves has to be permanant (except the Gallagher DFA) but we need to keep trying players until something clicks.  Francona is so veteran-centric that it is hurting the team right now.

5.On a more positive note, let's talk about the minors

    a. Hunter Stanley looked OK tonight.  He was still throwing 93 in his last inning and extended up to over 90 pitches.  He didn't have wipeout stuff but it played well and he kept the damage to a minimum.  Remember, not counting the AFL last year, this 2021 draftee had exactly FOUR games of professional experience entering 2023.  For him to have ANY success at AA this year is surprising and heartening and there is a lot to like as this guy is JUST an 11th round draft pick.  Maybe the Guardans Finishing School for College Pitchers is still alive and well...at least for some guys.

    b. Keep an eye on Wuilfredo Antunez.  Unlike former Carolina League bashers like Alexfri Planez, Antunez is a contact-first guy.  I like his game more and more every time I see him.

    c. Zach Plesac with another product, albeit not dominant start.  

    d. Alonzo Richardson may develop but, right now, he doesn't miss a lot of bats, just not allowing hard contact.  The production is not bad but he just doesn't seem to be dominant.

6. Right now it looks like oft-injured Tyler O'Neill may in the doghouse in St. Louis.  Maybe it is time for a change-of-scenery trade.  How about Peyton Battenfield and Richie Palacios for O'Neill, who hits right-handed. It is important to note that when the Cardinals started winning it coincided with when O'Neill went on the IL.  Also the upside is there for the Cardinals and the downside doesn't damage the Guardians if O'Neill craters.  

7. I am a die hard Guardians' fan and have been for most of my life.  I have faith Francona will pull them out of this slide.  I really do.  As I get older I realize that I have fewer and fewer seasons left in my life to root for my team so forgive me if I never give up on them in any season...and certainly not in this one.  I have faith it will be a magical year for the Guardians, just like last year was.  I still think it is not out of the question and would be the greatest baseball moment in my life if the Guardians and Cardinals made it to the WS this year and the Guardians won in 7 games. 

The Next Wave

 OK, so I am now a convert.   It is time for the next wave of pitching.  Let's bring up Gavin Williams.  But what happens as a result of and after that?  That is the subject of this post.

• Gavin Williams gets added to the 40-man.  Who comes off?
• Pitchers?  
• Zach Plesac - We would likely DFA him, meaning we sell low on his trade value.  Some people are OK with that because they are just done with him.  I, personally, never like to give away assets without getting something in return.
• Aaron Civale - I don't see this happening but he has been quite mediocre most of his career and, last year, was downright replacement level of below in most of his starts.  

With either of these pitchers you aren't getting much back if you DFA them and I absolutely hate that but I think that if Willaims comes up, one of the guys above become expendable.  Frankly, I think Plesac could become a great multi-inning reliever if he could just get his head around that role, but I don't know if his mind would allow for that.  

• Position players
• Cam Gallagher, with the concomitant promotion of Bo Naylor - Naylor has trouble throwing out runners.  So does Gallagher.  So does Zunino who has many more issues than that.  So a positive move on all fronts.
• Jose Tena - something is wrong with this guy.  Don't know what but if they decide it isn't fixable, he could be gone
• Juan Brito - My favorite whipping boy, Nolan Jones hasn't made it out of AAA yet so if you were ever going to declare this trade a failure, now is the time to do it.
• Oscar Gonzalez - Talk about how the mighty have fallen!  The fact that he is even on this list after his rookie season shows that he has has cratered in Franmil Reyes-like fashion.  
• Richie Palacios - The second dumbest move we could make, he IS quite redundant to our current outfielders but is still, in my opinion, a decent prospect and if Brennan fails, Palacios is a good fall-back.  But that is what I thought about Nolan Jones so what do I know?
• Jhonkensy Noel - Hear me out.  He IS one step away from the majors but that step is the toughest one, and one Bobby Bradley could never quite make and that Oscar Gonzalez may not be able to make again.  I could see them dumping him but, with a guy like Noel, you want to hold onto him until you are absolutely sure that the light bulb isn't going to go on.  
• Gavin Williams gets added to the rotation.  Who is out?  Remember the rotation should, eventually, be Beiber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Williams, #5 (Bibee or Allen). We have to choose between Bibee and Allen for who gets the last spot, as crazy as that seems and that's IF Civale loses his rotation spot.
• Peyton Battenfield - The natural choice as his stuff is pedestrian.  Battenfield goes back to AAA and bids his time in case of injury.
• Aaron Civale - It is not out of the question that he joins Plesac, Battenfield, Allen and Gaddis in the rotation at Columbus as they all bide their time until 
• Logan Allen - How crazy would it be for Allen to go down when Williams came up?  Too crazy, I think.  Still, I think Allen's pure stuff/moxie plays up less than any of the other guys.
• What's left down below?  Not much, actually, beyond Plesac, Civale, Battenfield, Allen and Gaddis.  After Williams comes up you only have a bunch of question marks.
• Espino - Not until 2025, if then
• Cantillo - Some days it looks like this year but some days it looks like late 2024.  Not really imminent, however, until he strings together some strong starts (in his SECOND year at AA!!!) and then proves it can translate to AAA.
• Burns - Maybe never
• Nikhazy - Maybe not ever
• Campbell - 2025 at the earliest given what is going on with him this year
• Mace - Maybe not ever part #2
• Messick/Dion - 2025 at the earliest.

The thing about the guys who are left AFTER Williams is promoted is that NONE of them may EVRE show enough to make the majors, with Cantillo, right now, being head and shoulders above any of the rest of them in terms of talent and performance.  

SUMMARY - So there you have it.  Williams being promoted starts his arbitration, option and FA clocks one year ahead of where they should have started.  It creates a domino effect that will cause us to likely DFA or give away for little return, another player, maybe even a true prospect.  It will also deplete our quality starters from the minors and leave us with little in terms of replacements at AAA except for Logan and guys who have struggled recently.  

I hope the FO doesn't do anything that is silly leaving the FO supporters saying 'what did you exepct to get for [fill in the blank], he sucks so bad he isn't worth anything' and the rest of us saying "Really, you took cash for this guy instead of a good prospect coming back."

Thoughts For A Wednesday Afternoon

 GUARDIANS GAME

Retirement is a blessing and a curse.  While it gives me a chance to watch entire Guardians' games live, it gives me time to watch entire Guardians losses live.  Fair disclaimer, I was doing household chores while I was watching but, whatever, I saw the game.  Here are my thoughts:

• Battenfield - He was hit hard when he was hit.  Truth be told, this is about what I expected out of Battenfield with his stuff.  He is like the Cleveland rookie pitcher of the '80s.  A couple of good outings mingled in with a couple of bad outings and as long as the math showed that there were more good outings than bad outings (I mean, even just one outing above even) we had hope.  But, in our heart of hearts, we knew mediocrity when we saw it because, in the '80s, we saw a lot of it.  So that brings me to Battenfield.  On our minor league depth chart at the beginning of the season the starting pitching looked like this: Espino, Williams, Bibee, Allen, Gaddis, Curry  Battenfield in terms of guys who could help the big league rotation this year.  For him to even have the limited success he has had is a pleasant and welcome surprise.  But we all knew when he came up and we all know now who the first guy sent to the minors will be when Civale OR McKenzie come back: Battenfield.  The point is, if you score zero runs even Shane Bieber can't win a game for you.  But Battenfield has given us all I think he is possible of giving.  With the way our offense has been, however, it is not enough to win games as there is no margin for error.  
• Hysterically, the only 4 hits of the game today were by Freeman (2 - smash that ate up the second baseman, infield chopper), Fry (bloop) and Arias (bunt).  Truth be told,  only Freeman's smash up the middle was hard hit and a good play by Mckinstry would have wiped that one out.  But it shows the depth that the rest of the lineup has fallent to where the rest of the guys were like, 0-21.  
• Speaking of infield choppers, Freeman's was almost a carbon copy of Arias' earlier infield chop.  The difference, in my opinion, in the result was taht Arias wasn't running hard to first base compared to Freeman.  This is something I have seen from Arias.  You know, if you are hitting a buck and a half, maybe you ought to run like your hair is on fire.  Plus, running hard fits with what our players do.  For him to not bust it to first base in that situation is not a good thing, I'm telling you.
• Good to see Fry get some work at catcher. He hit the ball hard in the first inning when he flew out. He handled his one chance at 3B well.  He doesn't look overwhelmed or overmatched.
• Zunino, Zunino, Zunino.  What to do about him?  Part of me wants to release him right now but I think you DFA Gallagher and bring up Naylor and make him the starter against RH starters and make Zunino the backup.  If you lose Gallagher so be it.  We still have Collins at AAA as the backup.  Zunino has certainly been a waste of money with his bad hitting and his even worse defense.  Well, we'll always have him plunking Badoo in the cup to remember.  But, really, time to bring up Naylor and make Zunino the backup catcher that he has so justly earned.

MINORS

• Gavin Williams touched 101 today and at the end of his last (5th) inning was still hitting 98.  Gave up only 2 hits and 2 walks, struck out 10.  He was as dominant as I could ever have imagined him to be so early in the season which he started in AA.  Still has some development to do but he looked really strong today.  Maybe even ML ready for a second division team.  But he should be here soon if he stays healthy and productive.
• Tanner Burns - Didn't see him pitch as I was watching (in silence thanks to MiLB.tv) but his numbers looked good.  Still don't think he is throwing that hard but he has had his good velocity moments.  Maybe we should go Freddy Beene on him and change him to a reliever.  
• Hitters - Not a lot of great news here:  Lampe is a hitter, just a singles hitter at this point.  Naylor and Palacios looked good.  Is there any chance in this world that what we are seeing from Korey Holland is real?  Any chance at all because he looks good and like a professional hitter right now.  
• Rocchio needs to be called up and Arias sent down to play SS every day.  Arias is providing no spark to this team at the moment...and this team needs players who provide a spark.  
• All the other guys who pitched today were organizational guys or guys who really need to break out the rest of this year to avoid becoming or continuing to be organizational guys.

That's it for now.  Time for more adulting.

Thoughts for a Tuesday Night

MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM

• Detroit went 1-15 with RISP tonight.  We won the game 2-0.  I don't think you win many games 2-0 when your pitchers give up 14 baserunners (9 hits, 3 walks, 2 errors).  We need to hit better...much better.
• Rosario went 4-4 tonight.  Maybe he will be the catalyst for this offense to find itself.
• Brennan went 2-3 tonight and scored the crucial second run.  I am really on the fence regarding whether he is going to be Steven Kwan (maybe + a little power) or Oscar Mercado going forward.   Let's hope for the Steven Kwan end of things.
• Beiber...what can you say?  Outstanding again
• The bullpen gave up no runs in 3 innings...don't worry about the man behind the curtain.  Just focus on the result.
• Francona doesn't trust any player he hasn't seen for an extended period of time (read: veteran of some ilk).  He needs to start.  I still say pull a Billy Beane on him and demote or trade the guys who aren't performing or aren't (for whatever reason) signing with us long term.  Zunino and Gallagher batting in close and late situations with one of them (and Fry) still on the bench is just too ridiculous to even talk about.  Heck, Gonzalez pinch hitting against the Yankees in the 9th last week instead of Fry is EXACTLY what I am talking about. A potential historical moment in a game where we already had the lead going into the bottom of the 9th totally blown out of the water.  Sometime what the fans want and what is the right thing to do corresponds.  Naylor, Gimenez, Brennan to the bench tomorrow with Fry, Freeman and Arias starting.  

MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS

• Joey Cantillo was getting squeezed tonight and did not have control of his fastball or command of his breaking pitches.  He was lucky to escape giving up as few runs as he did.
• Bo Naylor needs to be called up.  Sometimes you have to eat your microwave dinner before it is cooked thoroughly....Oh, my, that was a terrible analogy.
• Keep an eye on Richie Palacios.  If Brennan continues to scuffle, Palacios deserves a chance.
• I have to ask myself why Zach Plesac can pitch so well at AAA and so lousy in the majors...and then be so pissed when he is demoted. Dude, you gave up like 37 hits in 21 innings.  All you had to do to keep your job was be a quality NUMBER FIVE starter and you couldn't come close to doing that.  I hope you get your act together, man, because I still think you can be a helluva major league starting pitcher for a long time.  Key phrase: 'get your act together'.  
• Nate Furman needs to at Lake County.  
• I am still waiting for Jhonkensy Noel and Jonathon Rodriguez to absolutely go off and each end up with 30 HR this year.  

That's all for right now.  As for the Guardians, a win is a win but we need to just freakin' hit better and, given our pitching, we have the ability to win every game with the pitching we have been getting over the past three series.   Literally EVERY game.  

How Do We Fix Our Hitting?

 Look, this isn't working.  

• Gonzalez wasn't hitting the ball hard.  Either he fixes that or he isn't useful to this team right now.  Gonzalez sent to the minors to fix his problems.  Check
• Mike Zunino isn't hitting and is playing TERRIBLE, I repeat TERRIBLE defense.   Cam Gallagher isn't hitting.  We have a lot of money invested in Zunino, not so much in Gallagher.  Bring up Bo Naylor, ready or not and trade Gallagher.  Platoon Zunino and Naylor which means that Naylor should get a lot of the ABs.  Keep Fry as your 3rd catcher
• Will Brennan isn't hitting.  Send Brennan down to the minors to get his act together.  Bring up Richie Palacios.  Platoon him and Fry in RF.
• Gabriel Arias is pathetic at the plate.   He doesn't play the brand of ball the Guardians played successfully last year.  In fact, like guys like Mercado, Zimmer, Clement, etc., he is the antithesis of the brand of ball the Guardians played successfully last year.   We need to find a player who can play that brand of baseball.  Send Arias down and bring up Rocchio, who DOES play Guardians brand of baseball.  Where Rocchio would play is up in the air but we could find ways to give some everyday ABs to him just like we are trying to do with Arias.
• Naylor cannot hit left handers.  Play Bell exclusively at 1B and use Freeman, when he is not playing elsewhere, as the DH for Naylor against lefties. Or play Fry at 1B against lefties.

Will these moves make the team better, offensively?  I am not sure but the guys we have up here now are not doing the job and putting the offensively-lost Arias in RF where he has no experience is NOT the answer.  We have the redundancies who are on the 40-man roster and ARE producing at AAA.  It's time to use them to give us a spark.

In summary:

Send down: Arias and Brennan

Trade or release: Gallagher

Bring up: Bo Naylor, Richie Palacios and Brayan Rocchio

Play more: Freeman, Fry, Palacios, Bo Naylor and Rocchio.