We are now 20-26. I don't know if it is worse to be outscored 30-5 in a 3-game series or to lose 3 games in the other team's last AB, twice with all our closer has to do is, well, close.
Looking at this series and the season so far, it still appears to me that we need to do something bold. I see two ways of thinking about it:
- Trade some our excess prospect capital, especially middle infield prospects, and get a power hitting outfielder in here.
- Make a much bolder move and move on from some of our veterans to restock the upper levels of our minors while adding enough in ML ready guys that they don't throw this season away..
As far as the first one, I still see 3 issues
1. Cleveland is not the type of organization that trades for an expensive player from another organization. They are built to keep their prospects and develop them into affordable major leaguers.
2. Cleveland is not good at trading prospects and getting veterans back. Look at the players who have played for them this year. They were either developed by Cleveland, obtained in minor moves (Rule 5, minor league free agents) or obtained when Cleveland traded a veteran to another team getting young players or prospects back. I can't remember the last time the Guardians made a good prospect-for-major leaguer trade and, even worse, they tend to give their prospects away for very little or nothing when they do trade them. For example, the more-infamous-every-day trade of Junior Caminero for Tobias Myers trade.
3. They actually have very few prospects to trade right now as, besides Gavin Williams and, MAYBE, Joey Cantillo, they have very few prospects in their system at the moment who look like quality major league regulars. I know this is kind of harsh and I will cover it in a later post but, right now, it is the way it appears to me.
THE TRADE
There are a number of teams the Guardians can trade with but I have been, and continue to be, focused on one team, the Dodgers. LA was pretty much trashed in their last series against the Cardinals. They need help in a number of areas.
When you make a veteran-for-prospect trade you want to give up veteran(s) who have little or no future with your club but represent quality for the team you are trading with. We have a number of those:
1. Shane Beiber - He is a quality ML starter with 1.75 years of control who will never sign with the Guardians. He rightly wants to get paid in his next contract but he wants to get paid as a Cy Young award winner and he is not that right now.
2. Zach Plesac - The Guardians are done with him, I am sure, because they have so many other pitchers at or close to major league level. Plesac represents the perfect change-of-scenery project for a team who feels they can fix what ails him AND who is in need of veteran starting pitching now.
3. Amed Rosario - Whether any of us like it or not, Rosario is gone after this year. He likely will be the, by some distance, the best free agent SS on the market this winter and a contender who needs a SS now and who has the money/right situation could see him as a real value.
4. Myles Straw - Straw is showing who he is this year. Last year was an offensive aberration but this year is passable offensively at the bottom or the lineup and is still a Gold Glover, even though defensive metrics seem to be frowning on him this year. Still, for a contender in need of quality defense in center field who can live with his limited offensive production in CF and wants some continutiy from a very reasonable long-term contract, Straw is a great fit.
5. Eli Morgan - Why Morgan, you may ask? Morgan, to me, is the kind of guy who does it with smoke and mirrors. He is a quality version of Adam Cimber and guys like that. He is a gimmick pitcher who is surviving because his fastball has become ML average or a tad below, making his changeup and other off-speed pitches play WAY up. In the long-term, however, guys like him will generally be 6th/7th inning pitchers who may be able to go multiple innings. Very valuable to teams like Tampa Bay but easily replaceable given the Guardians' farm system.
6. Juan Brito - Every trade of prospects by a team needs at least one prospect in return so that the team TRADING prospects has at least one coming back that can have potential even when all the veterans have left the team. Brito fits that bill and, of course, frees up a space on the 40-man roster for us.
So, which team needs all these players? The answer is, unequivocally, the Dodgers. Here is what I see:
a. They are using a 34 year old journeyman at SS, Miguel Rojas. Rojas's offensive production is so bad they have used veteran, 32 year old supersub Chris Taylor at SS in about half their games this year. They could use Rosario's hitting and steady, but mediocre defense at SS right now and I think they would think they have a good chance of signing him to a reasonable deal that would keep their luxury tax within reason and help keep them from losing draft picks and pay crazy penalties in the future.
b. They have a lot of starting pitchers out right now and need some veteran starters, especially at least one quality, playoff-tested starter. Beiber, with Plesac as a throw-in, would help them out.
c. Their centerfield situation is a mess. It was so bad that at the beginning of the season they started a guy who I thought was more of a middling prospect, James Outman, in CF. To the surprise of most people, Outman started very hot. He hit .292 with 7 HR in April with an OPS of .991 but has hit .200 in May with 2 HR and 23 K in 60 AB in May with an OPS of .657 and has shown no real signs of pulling out of it. Plus, his defense in CF is only passable and, in the minors, he has played a lot of RF and LF. They have played veteran Jayson Heyward , a career RF and AAA outfielder Trayce Thomspon in CF in about half their games. Clearly, Straw would be an upgrade defensively and, given Outman's declining prduction, Straw's limited offensive upside (speed, good baserunning, better hitting than last year).
d. Their bullpen is being taxed based on how bad their starting pitching is now and they could use a fresh arm who is very different in stuff from who they have now.
So, the Dodgers would benefit hugely from obtaining these players. Even though they are comfortably in first place, leading by 7.5 games over San Diego, the team in their division who can realistically challenge them over a full season, the Dodgers are NEVER playing for the regular season. With their talent and payroll they are ALWAYS playing to be solid in the post-season.
So I think the Dodgers are the perfect trading partner. But wouldn't trading Beiber, Straw, Rosario and Plesac destroy the Guardians chances of winning the AL Central title this year? It is more likely than not going to have that impact but looking at the AL Central there is still an outside chance that they could, with young starting pitching, more consistency from their bullpen and upgrades on offense still be competitive this year and in the future.
So who do we need to get back from the Dodgers in this trade that would likely go down as the biggest blockbuster trade in Guardians history? The answer is simple: MULTIPLE ML ready or almost ML ready top prospects as well as a couple of long-term plays who have years before they are Rule 5-eligible and who migh actually make the majors close to their first Rule 5 winter.
The Dodgers have all those players and I think would be willing to part with all of them. Here they are and the reasons why I think the Dodgers would be willing to part with. Here is the list:
1. Bobby Miller RH SP- Miller missed the first month of the season and has only pitched 4 games this season, totaling just 14 innings as they build him back up. He throws hard but still needs some finishing off, something the Guardians are good at doing. Interestingly, the Dodgers are going to bring him up to start on Tuesday, starting his FA and arbitration clocks when they don't have to as he won't be Rule 5-eligible until next winter and he isn't really stretched out this year. This sounds, to me, like they are showcasng him for a possible trade.
2. Michael Busch -2B/1B/OF - Busch is a bat-first guy with great power who had his first cup of coffee in the bigs this year. His power is down this year which is likely concerning to the Dodgers and, as they are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole by trying to play a college !B man at 2B in the pros, they could see him as expendable.
3. Gavin Stone - RH SP - Stone has already been up for a start this year, starting his FA and arbitration clock early and rostering him when they didn't have to do that until after the season (similar to Gaddis and Curry last year and Logan Allen this year).
4. Dalton Rushing - C - A 2022 draftee, Rushing is dominating high A this year with his power and OB skills. He is looking like a steal in the second round. His defense is likely below average, explaining him dropping to the second round.
5. James Outman - OF - Outman's struggles have been described above but he still is a power-speed-walk guy who is an intriguing prospect, albeit, slightly less valuable to me than a healthy George Valera. Nevertheless, the Guardians could buy low on this guy given his cratering offensive production and the fact that is probably best served as a corner OFer. Let's be clear, though. Outman is a required throw-in to this trade but NOT one of the major pieces to it. The Guardians would be taking a gamble that he can get back to his early April form either this year in Cleveland or with more seasoning this year in Columbus.
These are the first 5 players I would ask for. All of them are top 100 prospects in baseball with the exception of Outman, who was a top 100 prospect until he exceeded his rookie status this year. Rushing, at 67, is the lowest-rated of the 5. Four of them are either in the majors or ML ready as they have been or will all be in the majors by this Tuesday. Note that this list allows the Dodgers to keep their #1 overall prospect in C Diego Cartaya and their #5 prospect, Ryan Pepiot who is a RH SP who is major league ready but currently on the 60-day DL as well as their #6, 8 and 9 prospects
Two more players I would require to make this trade would be a couple of guys who were recent international free agent signings, one who has yet to play a professional game and one who
6. Josue De Paula - OF - He was signed for $400,000 in the Jan 2022 signing period and dominated the DSL least year to the tune of ..349/.448/.522/.970 last year as a 16-year old.
7. Joendry Vargas - SS = The Dodgers #1 signing in the Jan. 2023 international free agent signing period, his bonus was near $3 million as he was the #3 ranked international free agent in the Jan. 2023 class. To put this in perspective, our top signee, Welbyn Francisca, was rated #28 in this class.
There is one final player I would want to offset Morgan going to LA.
8. Emmitt Sheehan RHP - While Sheehan is at AA and won't see the majors until sometime in 2024, he has late inning reliever written all over his stuff as he throws in the high 90s and has enough stuff to have struck out 58 in 34 innings at AA this year. He is mostly a fastball/changeup guy like Morgan but obviously has a much better fastball, although he is still a year or so away so the Dodgers are getting present value and we are getting future value with upside over Morgan's upside. Sheehan as a short, 5'10" RHP, is being developed as a starter but I don't think that will stick and that his role will be more like Morgan's role as a multi-inning reliever.
So, that's it. I have mentioned this trade in one form or another 4 times now but am mentioning it again. For those of you who want instant gratification of winning this year you will absolutely HATE this trade. For those of you who are prospect geeks like me and have seen that young, stud prospects can succeed in the majors right away AND see the advantages of a young, cheap roster in terms of maybe being able to add salary this winter, you will love this trade proposal. The Guardians FO will clear close to $25 million off their books this year and probably $16-$17 million next year. And for all you Dolan-is-cheap people, you will love to be able to add this trade to your list of cheap Dolan moves to talk about this winter.
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