Everybody likes the bright, shiny, new, next thing. We can't help ourselves.
From my 20+ years of experience with the draft here are 8 words after a draft prospect's name that make me scream and run the other direction:
"____ has been shooting up draft boards this spring"
I think it is from my experience with teams 'overdrafting' guys and how those guys rarely work out. I did a study back in the early 2000s that looked at 5 years worth of drafting in the mid '90s and showed that in the first round, if you drafted guys who were rated 10 spots below where they were drafted they had a much lower chance of being successful in the majors.
Not that drafting guys that other teams have overlooked is a bad thing. Guys from Mike Trout, Evan Carter and recently our very own Shane Bieber and Tanner Bibee have shown that sometimes teams can pick a guy who fits into their system and becomes so much more than others thought he could be.
But, generally, if a guy is rated highly in Dec./Jan. and is rated highly in June/July, he is a safe pick.
Let's look at some recent examples:
2017 - Hunter Greene was #1 in Jan, #2 in June and went #1 overall. Royce Lewis was #2 in Dec., #5 in June and was drafted #2 overall. Brendan McKay was #5 in Dec., #4 in June and was drafted #2 overall. Kyle Wright was #6 in Dec., #5 in June and drafted #3 overall. Jaren Kendall was #4 in Dec. #23 in June and was drafted #6 overall. MacKenzie Gore was #38 in Dec, #4 at draft time and was drafted #3 overall.
2018 - Casey Mize was #1 in Jan, #1 in June and went #1 overall. Nick Madrigal was #2 in Jan, #3 in June and went #4 overall. Joey Bart was #9 in Jan, #6 in June and went #3 overall. Alec Bohm was #3 in Jan, #7 in June and went #3 overall. Jonathon India was #24 in Jan, #8 in June and went #5 overall. Brady Singer was #15 in Jan, #2 in June but went #18 overall. Matthew Liberatore was #7 in Jan, #4 in June but went #16 overall. Carter Stewart was #5 in Jan, #5 in June and went #8 overall. Jared Kelenic was #8 in Jan, #10 in June and went #6 overall.
2019 - Adley Rutschman was #1 in Dec., #1 in June and was drafted #1 overall. Bobby Witt Jr. was #3 in Dec., 3, #2 in June and went #2 overall. Andrew Vaughen was #2 in Dec., #3 in June and went #3 overall. JJ Bleday was #15 in Dec., #5 in June and went #4 overall. Riley Greene was #5 in Dec., #6 in June and went #5 overall. CJ Abrams was #4 in Dec., #4 in June and went #6 overall.
2020 - We are starting to get into data that is incomplete in terms of professional performance but Spencer Torkelson was #2 in January, #1 in June and went #1 overall.
2021 - Marcelo Mayer was #8 in Jan but #1 in June and went #4 overall. Jordan Lawler was #2 in Jan, #3 in June and went #6 overall. I am betting that other teams regret not picking Lawler and going with Henry Davis and Jack Leither 1-2, although Leiter was highly rated in June (#2) after being more lowly rated in Jan. (#7). Davis was outside the top 10 in Jan, moved to #5 in June and went #1 overall.
2022 - In 2022 Druw Jones was #1 in Jan and June and went #2 overall. Jackson Holliday was #3 early on and #2/3 in June, and went #1 overall. This, to me, was where scouting comes in. Jones' hit tool was suspect but his overall package looked better. Holliday's hit tool was excellent but there was some positional questions about him staying at SS or hitting for enough power to move to 3B. Going for the advanced hit tool has seemed to work out for the Orioles but not so well up to now for the Diamondbacks with Jones.
2023 - Dylan Crews was #1 in Dec., #2 in June and went #2 overall. Paul Skenes was #4 in Dec., #2 in June and went #1 overall. It should be noted that Chase Dollander was #2 in Dec. but dropped like a rock due to poor performance. Wyatt Langford was #3 in Dec., #3 in June and went #4 overall. Max Clark was #6 in Dec., #5 in June and went #3 overall. This was a strong draft at the top and all of the top 10 guys in the draft might have great careers. But, for me, the team with the #1 overall pick has to have blinders on. When Dollander dropped it was always Skenes or Crews. I would have gone with Crews but the lure of a #1, potential multi-time all-star SP is worth the gamble over a potential multi-time all-star corner outfielder, even if the latter had Mike Trout offensive upside. Still, if it was me, I would have gone for the more sure thing and drafted Crews who was solid from start to finish in his draft year. The slight rise in Skenes would have been the decider against him, at least for me.
Looking at this list the guys who were near the top in Dec. generally stayed near the top in June and were drafted near the top. For the most part, these guys were the top performers comng out of the 1st round of these three drafts, although that is not to say they were eventual stars.
So, if I am a Guardians draftnik, I am paying as much attention to the ratings in January as I am in June. While the June ratings are the most up-to-date, they also favor guys who are the shiny new thing, or fast risers, as they are also called. I think data shows that while drafting fast riser guys CAN work, you are safer drafting guys who have been considered top prospects for at least a year, especially early in the first round. Those guys were at the top of draft prospect lists in Jan. and again in June are also likely to be big successes, although injury, more than performance, can take a top-of-the-top prospect down.
So, Guardians, your job is pretty simple. Look at the best guys now and if they are still the best guys pick the best of them on draft day...and don't get suckered into taking the new, shiny thing who pops up on the boards in the spring of 2024.
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