Saturday Thoughts: First 2 Games, New Bullpen Additions, Minor League Rosters, Race for 1-1 ***Updated***

Hi from a rainy San Diego on a Saturday morning.  Lots to unpack so let's go:

***Updated to Include the Lake County Roster and Associated Discussion***

GUARDIANS ARE 2-0

Oakland is struggling.  13,000+ on opening night, 3,000+ the second game.  It's almost like playing in 2020.  I feel for the diehard A's fans.  I saw the angst in Cleveland when the Browns left.  I saw it in St. Louis when the Rams left.  At least in those cases it was not so drawn out.  Their roster is built to lose and even trades they have made to infuse prospects (e.g., Muller, Ruiz) that looked light at the time have gone way past 'light', approaching 'close to zero return' levels.  That being said, here are my thoughts from the first two games relative to how the Guardians looked.

• Bieber looked good.  More than anything else, he was classic Bieber, with the help of Hedges getting almost every single close pitch.
• This team appears much less susceptible to LH pitching, at least in the first game (more today).  Good starts for Fry and Freeman give a lot of promise.  Plus Laureano, Hedges and even Arias (LOL) are righties who at least will at least mentally psyche out LHSP, even if they can't hit them very well.
• Logan Allen is a good 5th starter on a good team.  He showed that again in game 2.  If we score a lot for him he should have a very good record this year.  If we score very little for him he will look pretty bad.  However, if he keeps his head together, his ERA and the peripherals should look the same regardless: 4.10 ERA, H/IP = 1,  BB/9 = 3, BB/K = 2.2 ,  HR/9 = 1.1, innings per start = 5.8.  He will have his good games and his bad games and the hope is that we win 2/3 of his good starts and split on his bad starts.  But this is a HUGE hope and rests squarely on the offense and defense.
• Speaking of defense, the construction of the Guardians this year makes it imperative that we play good defense.  So far our Gold/Platinum Glovers, Kwan and Gimenez look great.  Naylor, Ramirez, Hedges/other Naylor, Brennan/Laureano look like they should, Freeman looks comfortable but hasn't been challenged yet.  The one guy who looks really shaky so far is Rocchio.  His arm looks short for SS and it is possible, if Rocchio hits, next year could see a flip flop of him and Gimenez,   I don't see it this year because they need and want Gimenez at 2B.
• Not sold yet that Ramirez and Gimenez will improve from their 2023 issues of trying to do too much offensively.  Although I think Kwan and Brennan WILL improve this year over last, I am not convinced that will move the needle enough to cause a change in trajectory of this year for the Guardians.
• Laureano, with the fat contract and the guarantee of playing time, has not exactly hit the ground running, looking more like what his stats would have predicted he would be for a guy who really hasn't been a plus contributor since 1999.  
• Florial looks lost but he will get enough opportunities to give him a chance that he never really got in the Yankees system.  We may have to watch him be overmatched for 2 months here so be ready for the pain of watching him flail at fastballs in the zone and at breaking balls low and away and, of course, an inordinate number of 3-pitch strikeouts, sprinkled in with the occasional stolen base.  Of course, the issue is that you can't steal first!
• Fry had a confidence-building start in the opener as did Freeman and, to some extent, Rocchio.  Good for them as I think all three will be offensive contributors this year beyond what a lot of nay-sayers were saying when they wanted to throw all three in the trash bin over the winter.
• A key to the season and the future will be how McKenzie holds up this year.  It is almost unfathomable to me that he will have a 2022-like season but, if he does, this team's near-term and long-term fortunes go up dramatically as he always had ace stuff, IMO.

NEW BULLPEN ADDITIONS

On Thursday, right before the opener, the Guardians announced they had acquired two relievers, Zac Kent (26) and Peter Strzelecki (29), both of who took 40-man roster spots and both of whom, thankfully, are not on the major league roster.  These aere typical, ridiculous trades by our FO, doing things that are non-sensical.  Let's examine these trades:

• First, these trades were designed to provide 'much needed bullpen depth at AAA'.  A perusal of the opening day roster for Columbus shows that they have the following WITHOUT Kent and Strzelecki:
• Starters: Will Dion, Connor Gillispie, Hunter Stanley, Jaime Barria, Adam Oller
• Relievers: Aleman, Banda, Burns, Doxakis, Enright, Gose, Hickman, Labout, Sabrowski
• IL: Cantillo (SP),  Brown (SP), Arias (RP)

Looking at this list I see NINE relief pitchers without Kent and Strzelecki, almost all of them prospects.

Now let's look at Kent and Strzelecki:

• Zac Kent had a decent year in AAA last year as an opener at AAA but had a 8.10 ERA in the AFL, followed by an ERA of over 10 this spring.   26 year olds who have never played in the majors, who have had an injury history like Kent's and put up stats like this are minor league free agent signings.
• Strzelecki, on the other hand, seems like a decent addition, albeit being 29 years old.  I wouldn't be appalled if he played for us in the majors at some point this year.   

Likely, each of these guys were going to be DFA'd and would have been available at the waiver price of $50,000 or, if released, for nothing other than their minor league salary.   Strzelecki was acquired for cash, which was likely to be around $60,000 (slightly more than the waiver price).   Kent was acquired for international bonus pool money.  As I indicated in a previous post, my calculations have the Guardians having over $450,000 left in their international bonus pool for 2024 so this makes sense.  So it doesn't really cost the Guardians anything for Kent but it does, like Strzelecki he does occupy a roster spot.  

I don't see the logic in either of these acquisitions as I don't see either of these guys moving the needle on this season while both of them block prospects like Trey Benton and Davis Sharpe who will be at AA.  As I said, another head-scratching acquisition for the Guardians.   If the stated goal is to play the kids why would we add 29- and 26-year old middle relief candidates who are not needed and will, likely, take away reps from prospects we are trying to groom to be major leagues.  Add to that question the timing of the move when we were all hoping for news on extensions for guys like Josh Naylor and it was all just frustrating and even infuriating, given how little was done this off-season under the guise of playing the kids.   

MINOR LEAGUE ROSTERS

The minor league rosters are being rolled out for Guardians' affiliates.  Let's look at them to see what stands out.

Columbus (AAA)

This roster is stacked with prospects, but not so stacked that it will be hard to find playing time for our high level prospects coming out of the gate.  Here is a projected opening day lineup.

Straw CF 

Brito 2B

Rodriguez RF

Manzardo 1B

Noel LF

Schneeman 3B

Tena SS

Lavastida C

Delgado DH

When Angel Martinez comes back, hopefully soon, you could plug him in for Delgado and have a lineup of all prospects plus Straw.  This does hurt the chances of Pries, Delgado and Cedrola getting playing time and if Valera comes back soon, probably one of those guys will have to be reassigned or released.

As far as the pitching staff, it is readily apparent for the entire off-season that there is a problem with depth starters at AAA now that Cantillo is out for 2+ months with the hamstring injury.  Maybe when Lively and Curry Will Dion is the only prospect starter they have with the rest of the rotation being pieced together with AAA types.    The bullpen, on the other hand, looks really interesting with Aleman, Burns, LaBout, Gose and Enright, not to mention all the AAAA guys we acquired last fall and this spring.  Hopefully those 5 get the bulk of the bullpen experiences this season although I think their reps may suffer now that 40-man guys Kent and Strzelecki are in the group.   

Akron (AA)

There are a number of interesting positions players here.  At catcher we get our first look at Kody Huff who was acquired in the Quantrill giveaway to Colorado.  He looks like an organizational guy to me but the Guardians are apparently higher on him than his stats and pedigree would seem to warrant.  Backing him up is Micael Ramirez who still is on the edge of being a prospect.  The infield has Bracho, Frias, Watson and Tolentino, all who have prospect potential and the overdrafts Cairo and Valdes who have fizzled as prospects.  In the OF there is DeLauter, Halpin, Lampe and Planez.  DeLauter is obviously the crown jewel but Halpin is a true prospect, Planez had a Noel trajectory before he was injured and Lampe is on the borderline of being a failed slap hitter from the 2022 draft who needs a big year to redeem the scouting department for overdrafting yet another LHH slap hitter with a good batting eye.  If you remember Lampe started hot at Lake County but fizzled out, becoming more of an afterthought as the year went on.  

As far as pitching, there are a lot of underperforming guys, guys with limited tools but who are grinders and guys with potentially electric stuff if they can harness it.  EIGHT pitchers from the 2021 draft are here and they all have various levels of ML potential.  Put those guys together with Benton, Torries Jr.,, Carver, Hanner and Jones and this would be the best collection of arms on a team in our entire minor league system.  That doesn't even count former first rounder Ethan Hankins and 2023 2nd rounder Andrew Walters who has stuff electric enough he could be in the big leagues in the last half of this year.  As I said, clearly, to me, the most exciting minor league pitching staff in our system with every single guy having some chance of pitching in the majors some day. EVERY SINGLE GUY.

Lake County (High A)

***Updated as LC roster has now been published:

C Cooper Ingle

1B - CJ Kayfus

INF - Maick Collado

INF - Jose Devers

INF - Nate Furman

INF - Alex Mooney

INF/OF Jake Fox

OF - Guy Lipscomb

OF - Justin Boyd

LHSP - Parker Messick

LHSP - Steve Hajjar

RHRP - Magnus Ellerts

RHP - Trenton Denholm

RHRP - Alaska Abney

RHRP - Shawn Rapp

RHRP - Jake Miller

The rest of the players and pitching staff appear to be just organizational guys and/or returning players,  making this team not very competitive in their league but at least the guys in bold above are somewhat interesting with a number being top 30 prospects.  Maybe some of these guys, as well, will surprise us and rock our top 30 list come November.

Lynchburg (A)

Every position player is either an interesting prospect or a high college draft pick who should perform at a high level and make the team more competitive.  The pitching staff is less stacked than the position players with a lot of organizational college pitchers from the 2023 draft and some interesting returning and new arms signed through our international system.  There is a chance this pitching staff, performance-wise, could be very competitive with, of course, heightened interest in Clemmey, Humphries, Gomez and Richardson.    In summary as far as Lynchburg, I could see this being one of the most exciting teams in our system to watch as either guys will explode out of Lynchburg this year or, if healthy and not performing, fall into the organizational player bin by the end of this season.

I did want to interject one comment, though.  At least 50% of the value of Ralph Velasquez was the possibility that he could catch as a pro.  While he has a good hit tool it is, in my opinion, a Comp A or early 2nd round profile w/o being a catcher.  So the fact that they list him as an infielder is disappointing if they have, indeed, given up on him as a catcher.  My pick for that spot was Hurston Waldrep who is the 87th ranked prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline and is starting his first full pro season in AA with a real chance to pitch in Atlanta this year, exactly where he could have been if the Guardians drafted him instead of letting him fall to the very next pick where the astute Atlanta Braves picked him up.  BTW, Velasquez was nowhere to be found in the MLB Pipeline top 100.

RACE FOR 1-1

More on this at the end of the weekend but the presumptive #1, Travis Bazzana, had a rough two nights on Thursday and Friday.  He went 1-2 with a couple of walks on Thursday but got picked off twice, once in the 9th of a 1-1 game with a couple of guys on and the batter having a 3-0 count.  His hit was an infield hit he legged out.   On Friday he had a good line on paper with his 5th leadoff HR in the last 6 games and 3 walks in going 1-2.  However, he committed 3 errors as his team got crushed 17-4.

Charlie Condon's Georgia team crushed it's opponent on Friday but Condon went a harmless 1-4 with a walk and a K.

As I said, more on this on Monday after the dust settles on weekend conference matchups. 

61-101 - My Major League Cleveland Guardians' Predictions

 61-101

It's in the title and in big, bold letters in the first line of this post. Looking back at old MS word documents, I have been blogging and writing about Cleveland's ML baseball team for almost 30 years now.  every year I make predictions, including the record of the ML team.  At no time in the past have I ever suggested the Guardians would lose 100 games.  In fact, in club history, only 5 times have they ever lost 100 or more games in a season: 1991 (105 losses), 1987 (101), 1985 (102), 1971 (102), 1914 (102) have they ever lost 100 games in a season.  

Yet, in 2024, I am predicting that they will lose more than 100 games for the first time in 33 years!  What brings me to that conclusion you may ask.  I mean, with a very similar offense, they were 52-51 last year on July 28th and trailed in the AL Central by only 1.5 games before going 24-35 the rest of the season.

So, why do I think the Guardians will have their first 100 loss season since 1991?  Let’s dive in:

HISTORY

The Guardians were 52-51 on July 28^th, 2023.  They went 24-35 the rest of the way with the same cast of characters, essentially, that they have now.  If you assume that is about 1/3 of the season it is not unreasonable that they will end up with 100+ losses this year if everything plays out, on average, the same and they don’t have any significantly positive changes in performance and with the loss of Francona.

Looking back at some past 100+ loss seasons here is what I found:

• 1991 (105 losses) – For hitters the Guardians had Brook Jacoby, Carlos Baerga, Albert Belle, Mark Whiten.  Their rotation included Swindell, Nagy and Candiotti.  They had a bullpen by committee with Olin, Hillegas and Doug Jones getting 7 or more saves and Jesse Orosco also present. Note, however, that Jim Thome and Sandy Alomar only got bit parts in this season with much bigger roles starting the next year (cough! DeLauter & Manzardo.  Cough!)
• 1987 - for hitters they had Joe Carter (32 HRs, 31 SBs), Brook Jacoby (.300, 32 HRs), Julio Franco (.319, 32 SB), Mel Hall (18 HRs, .280), Brett Butler (.295, 33 SB), Cory Snyder (33 HRs) and Pat Tabler (.307, 11 HRs).  The rotation included: Candiotti, Ken Schrom, Phil Niekro, Steve Carlton and Greg Swindell, with Niekro and Carlton in their 40s.  Doug Jones was in the bullpen but only had 8 saves which led the club.

While each year is different, you can see, even with good players, how easily a team can put up a 100+ loss season.  BTW, there was a managerial chance in the middle of each of these seasons. Which brings me to my next topic.

MANAGING

 Steven Vogt is a rookie manager, one year removed from being a player.  Is he a good choice for the long-term manager of the Guardians?  It appears so.  But we know how rookie managers can fare.  Look at Francona.  He started managing in the majors at 38 years old, inheriting a losing team (65-97 the year before he arrived).  In his first 4 years of managing (Philadelphia) his teams were 68-94, 75-87, 77-85 and 65-97, before he was fired.   Basically, even the best managers generally take some time to ‘cook’ before they start producing, especially when they inherit a losing team.  Plus the vibes I get (especially what the bench coach, Craig Albernaiz said when asked about Vogt) tell me that Vogt is going to be in a learning mode which will, no doubt, cost us games.  It’s just inevitable, in my opinion.

COACHING

The upside is that the best of our coaches (Alomar, Willis) are back this year.  I don’t mean to rip on Barnett, but it HAS to be an upside that we have a different guy in charge of replay challenges.  Barnett was terrible and cost us countless challenges, both from challenging and, especially, NOT challenging.  I hope it is MUCH better this year as I hope the Guardians finally took this position seriously and brought in someone who could handle the pressure and speed of that job.  That would seem to me to be a pretty easy thing to recruit/test for.  The downside is that Chris Valaika is still here.  Now, I have ZERO idea whether Valaika is a good hitting coach.  What I am 100% sure of is that he is NOT a good hitting coach for the players on this team.  As in all teaching, it is not just how much you know about the subject but, rather, how you can communicate it to a group of people who all have different learning styles AND how successful those people are in the subject you are teaching.  With the Cleveland Guardians, Chris Valaika is just NOT a good hitting coach.

PLAYERS

GENERAL - The stated goal of this team is to try to win while, at the same time, letting the young players play so we can decide which ones are keepers and which ones aren’t.  The RESULT of that strategy is that we didn’t spend any money by buying free agents to fill holes on our team.  As a prospect geek, I absolutely LOVE that strategy.  However, you have to walk the walk.  When they signed Hedges I was sort of OK with the cost as he could provide valuable tutelage to Bo Naylor and David Fry AND help our pitchers maximize their success.  He showed how valuable he can be to rebuilding (Pittsburgh) and competing (Texas) teams in terms of being a positive influence and getting the most wins possible out of a pitching staff.  Sooooo, while I didn’t like the expense in light of us not going after other free agents, I was OK with it. Where the wheels came off for me was giving Laureano $5.1 MM.  We had so many young outfielders ready for their first ML shot who could provide power that it made and still makes ZERO sense to me, especially since we began the off-season by doing a salary dump with Quantrill and trading Enyel De Los Santos for Craig Barlow, with CA telling us that we couldn’t have obtained Barlow without off-loading roughly the equal amount of salary.  Then we drop $5.1 MM on a journeyman Ofer who hasn’t really had a good year since 2019.  The worst part is that the Guardians, in need of power, failed to roll the dice with DeLauter and Manzardo out of spring training while keeping Florial.  This appears to be a service time manipulation ploy under the guise of getting these guys more experience to make sure they ready while other teams who are, on paper, better than the Guardians (San Diego – Jackson Merrill, Texas – Wyatt Langford) are giving their young players spots on their opening day rosters.   So, basically, the FO is talking out of both sides of their mouths.

INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS – But, as always, it comes down to the players.  It did for Francona in Philadelphia and it should for the Guardians.  The Cardinals' Ollie Marmol and, before him are good examples.   If inexperienced managers have good players the manager and coaches are under less pressure to do what Francona did every year here: pull a rabbit out of a hat and get more production out of the team than their individual stats would suggest was possible.  So, if the players perform to the FO expectations (or wild hopes, actually) the Guardians should be OK.  I don’t think that is going to happen and to understand my thought process, let’s look at how I think every player on the opening day roster (and IL, after they are activated) will perform:

Steven Kwan – The FO expects Kwan to have a bounce-back season this year and I think he will.  I think he will hit close to .300 while doubling his HR total and increasing his XBH total by 20% while stealing the same number of bases and playing excellent defense in LF.

Andres Gimenez – Ditto with the FO thoughts on AG reverting to his 2022 form.  Unfortunately, I see Gimenez performing more like his 2023 numbers than his 2022 numbers.  I think his RBI total will go up but what I saw in ST made me think he hasn’t made the adjustments necessary to go back to his 2022 form.  Still will play great defense but looking at .260, 15 HRs, 70 RBI, 35 BB stats.  A little better but not enough to move the needle on this offense.

Jose Ramirez – Still a great player but he just tried to do too much last year, swinging at numerous pitches (especially low and inside, some almost hitting him in the knee) when it was obvious that the other team was just pitching around him.  He will continue to try to do too much this year and I don’t see his stats improving at all.

Josh Naylor – I think he will be essentially the same player this year as he was last year,  except that he will hit 20+ HRs.  He will be the solid part of this offense but last year will be remembered as close to his peak performance which I am sure he will maintain for the next 4-5 years of his career.  But to ask him to become any more is likely not going to happen.

Brayan Rocchio – Here is the one wildcard.  THE guy on the opening day roster who can make the team that starts this year much better than the team that ended last year.  He could have a year like Kwan did in 2022 plus maybe a few more HRs.  If he does that and plays just solid defense he improves this offense a lot.  If he looks like he did last year, then he adds nothing to this team as his defense is not as good as Arias’ and he likely won’t show the power Arias did last year. 

Estevan Florial/Tyler Freeman – The ABs we waste on Florial will come to haunt this team early in terms of W/L record, making a deeper hole we would have to climb out of just to be competitive in the AL Central.  Florial doesn’t offer anything to this team on offense over Straw and is inferior defensively.  Freeman is better than Straw offensively but in the games I saw he was inferior defensively and wasn’t really challenged like he will be when ML hitters are rifling balls in his direction for 9 innings instead of the first 4-5 as is the case in spring training.  We were so used to Straw running balls down that this year average defense in CF will look inferior and, yes, will cause us to lose games where last year’s great catches will turn into doubles and triples this year.

Will Brennan/Ramon Laureano – Frankly, Brennan has to be the guy he was in 2022 in Columbus to help this team.  Laureano has to be the guy he was in 2019.  I doubt either happens although maybe the platoon can give us better overall production than we he had out of RF last year.  Yes, I think this could work to make RF better than it was in 2023 while keeping the same defense.  But, unless Brennan & Laureano return to their career-peak forms, it won’t be enough to move the needle on our W/L record.

Bo Naylor/Austin Hedges/David Fry – Clearly this catching combo will give us more production than we had last year during the first half of last year.  That, alone, could take the pressure off of the big bats and, along from a stellar season by Rocchio, propel us to a winning record.  I just think it is too much to ask but, hey, it might work to impact our record if everything clicks.

Arias – The one guy left on the bench, I think Arias could thrive if he embraces that role.  His hitting this spring is no better than last year so, frankly, I think this is the place where he can do the least damage to this offense while still being an above average offensive utility guy who can play any position on the field except for catcher and pitcher.

Bieber – I think he is such a smart pitcher he will keep his head above water.  If he can keep it at a high level for the season up to the trade deadline I think we will be in the race.  It is just a lot to ask for him to be the ace he once was, even in his walk year.  That is what he will need to be with our offense for him to make a difference.  I just don’t see that he has that in him and I expect him to be about 6-10 when we finally trade him at the deadline, most of those losses not being from bad pitching.  That’s if he stays healthy which is a HUGE ‘if’ at this point.

McKenzie – The stuff is there but his FB velocity and command is still off and he is relying on his breaking balls too much.  This is a recipe for him breaking down early in the season and I think that is the likely outcome.  If he can maintain great stuff and be the 2022 version of himself well, now we’re talking.  Just don’t see that happening as the lack of offense will put too much pressure on our pitchers to be perfect.  With his current stuff, McKenzie is far from perfect.

Bibee – He was #2 in the ROY balloting last year.  IF you can get equal performance this year it will be great.  I think expecting him to improve is out of the question and some regression is a good possibility.  He would still be really good if he regresses but the lack of offense makes really good mean a .500 or a tad below record…and its all about the record, isn’t it?

Williams – I think the Guardians minimize the severity of injuries to their pitchers.  A small injury becomes larger with time and, at the end, a guy misses all or most of the season, mainly to keep the fan base from losing interest.  However, if Williams would beat the Guardians’ propaganda of lies and actually make it back, fully healthy, early this season, he could be the one pitcher who performs at a higher level than expected and be a difference maker.  I could easily see him going 13-8 and push for an all-star slot if he gets healthy early and stays healthy.  But if he stays on the IL, it is just another nail in the coffin of this season.

Allen – Logan Allen is a 5^th starter on a good team.  That’s all he is.  Maybe one of the best 5^th starters in the AL but not a difference makere.  If he could go .500 while the other starting pitchers stay healthy and excel, that would be the recipe for success.  I just think he is performing at his peak level, maybe ever, right now and he can’t be expected to do more than tread water, which is fine if everyone above you is killing it.

Carrasco – Wouldn’t it be great if Carrasco wins the comeback player of the year award?  It would be a great story and I hope it happens.  But a 37-year old coming off a terrible age-36 season is likely to be a hole plugger.  If he is a great hole plugger his performance would be interchangeable with that of Williams but I can’t see that happening.  He is more like McKenzie, in that even when he is good he won’t be good enough to be above .500 with this offense.  But McKenzie has a shot at being great and I don’t think Carrasco can even be as good as Logan Allen at this point in his career.  Not bad, maybe a great trade chip at the deadline, but not a difference maker here.

Clase – I think this year will look a lot like last year.  He doesn’t seem to have the ability to ramp it up in a close game.  He is good.  He knows how to close.  But he doesn’t have that next gear in a 1-run game like the best of the best closers do.  So his performance this year will likely be much like it was last year which is good enough on a good team but not with a team with this offense.

Barlow – He is what he is.  If he pitches like he did in KC last year he will be great.  Unfortunately, he is now not ADDED to Stephan, he is REPLACING Stephan, meaning that having him doesn’t move the needle in a positive direction this year.  It, at best (meaning KC production and not Padres production) means we are treading water.

Morgan – I think Morgan will be just fine and his stats will look the same as last year, which doesn’t help us improve this year. But we don’t have anyone to replace him with who will do better.

Sandlin – See Morgan.  He will be just fine but what he gave us last season is the best we will ever see from Sandlin so he won’t move the needle this year, just like Morgan won’t.

Hentges – Did I mention that I think the Guardians minimize the severity of injuries to avoid fans being discouraged with the team's chances?  If Hentges can come back he will, like Sandlin and Morgan, be similar to last year, meaning he won’t move the needle but, in his case, being left-handed, he is even less expendable than Morgan and Sandlin.  If Hentges is on the IL for a long time, it will mean a net negative for the bullpen and this team can afford few, if any, net negatives from last year’s performances.

Herrin – Herrin has a chance to be much better.  He has the stuff and size to do it.  So far this year he looks like the Herrin of last year who is a major league middle reliever.  If he stays that way this year, he doesn’t move the needle for the Guardians.

Gaddis – The one guy who looks like he could move into an 8^th inning role.  I think he will be HUGELY better than last year if he stays healthy and will be the one returning guy who could be better. 

Curry – He is a swiss army knife.  I think his stuff plays all the way from an opener to a closer, but I don’t see him upping his performance over last year so, at best, he is a net neutral compared to last year.

Beede – The wildcard in this mix can he be a great, shutdown reliever?  If so, great, if he is Daniel Norris, then, well, he won’t improve this team’s record.  As a starter, he is south of Carrasco and that won’t move the needle at all.

Cade Smith – With luck, he could be a part-time setup man this year.  Most likely, his stuff will allow his rookie year to produce results like a pedestrian veteran middle reliever like Sandlin.  If so, he won’t move the needle.  The worst part is there are rumblings they may bring in a veteran to take his bullpen spot, sending Smith back to AAA.  This would hinder his development and what is even worse it would likely cause us to have to DFA someone as the 40-man is now full.  Giving that the most vulnerable guys on the roster after Lively and Florial are JRod and Noel, that unnecessary acquistion could be a real disaster.

Lively – Never understood this signing and he is, to me, only a factor if we need to soak up a lot of innings…like on a rebuilding team limping through the season.  So, a non-factor in a competitive season.

Minor Leaguers – Ahh, the X-factor.  Guys coming up and providing a spark, putting this team over the top.  Well, I go on record now saying that if they bring DeLauter and/or Manzardo up later this year (say June or beyond) this year they are idiots.  If these are not there at the beginning of the season we lose the ROY compensation possibility while still possibly losing the year of service their service time manipulation is supposed to help with.  If they are not up by the end of May this season will likely be snowballing to such an extent that it won’t change the outcome but MIGHT cause us to lose service time control if one of them finishes in the top 3 in ROY voting.  Will other rookies come up and provide hope for next year?  Absolutely, positively, freakin’ happening this year.  I predict that we will have a number of guys like that and, hopefully, will obtain more at the deadline like we did with Manzardo last year.  It won’t help the 2024 season in terms of competitiveness to make the playoffs but it will definitely put us into a better spot for 2025 with more legitimate options.  Note, however, that if this happens we will likely have to DFA prospects to clear roster spots.  THAT will be painful as it is likely guys like Noel and JRod who could be casualties. 

 

SUMMARY

Looking at this roster, I don’t really see ANY player(s) making the huge leap that we need on offense.  Small improvements are great but won’t cut it when trying to be competitive.   Add to that how badly we finished last year and any disasters in the starting pitching or with Clase means disastrous results. 

I think, given last year and the injury history of some of these guys and the overall disappointment, pressure and weight of losing after all those years of winning under Francona, will lead us to a 100+ loss season.  We ended last year 24-35.  It is not hard to believe that if we continue to play that way we would end up 61-101.

And that is my prediction.  The only good that is likely to come out of this season is if we sign Josh Naylor to an extension, sort out our prospects heading into the off-season so we know who to trade, come out of this year healthy, make great trades at the deadline, have a great 2024 draft and, from our bad record this year, get the #1 overall draft slot in 2025. 

So, you are all free to bookmark this blog post and rag on me after the season.  Trust me, I will WELCOME that banter because it will mean I am very wrong about this season.   

Thoughts On The Final (?) Roster

 Lots to unpack about the final roster.  So here goes.

• Devison De Los Santos was returned to the Diamondbacks.  On paper he was never likely to make this team and the thought process may have been, in part, that if DeLauter wasn't going to make the team with limited experience how could De Los Santos.  In addition, Antonetti apparently said 'for now' in regards to him being returned to Arizona.  A salient point here is that if we made a trade for him BEFORE we returned him to Arizona he would have had to stay on the 40-man.  The only way to be able to keep him NOT on the 40 would have been to DFA him after we traded for him.  By sending him back to Arizona he now is taken off the 40 man and doesn't lose an option year because he was never on an active roster during the regular season.  Following that path we can now trade for him if we like him and can find a reasonable trade AND not have him on the 40 man until at least this November, when we would have to roster him to protect him against the 2024 Rule 5.  Smart thinking all around by the Guardians as the deal could be about the same now as it was before he was returned, we have more time to make the deal or an expansion of that deal to include additional players on both sides, without any pressure.  Essentially, we have until the first minor league game in early April, giving us extra time to come up with a deal.
• Estevan Florial made the team.  Even though this could be just a temporary situation this likely leaves a bad taste in the mouth of Guardians fans, given how pathetic Florial was this season.  Now that he is on the roster they are going to give him all the playing time he can get before opening day.  He likely will platoon with Freeman just like Brennan will platoon with Laureano.  While I don't like it, keeping Florial makes perfect sense from that POV and because if we DFA'd him the FO would have egg on their face for the stupid loss of Cody Morris for a guy (Florial) that many of us believed was just a AAAA guy.   However, if you were going to dump Florial, now would have been the time with Morris being sent to AAA after sucking in ST this year.  
• Rocchio will be the starting SS but Arias makes the team.  This makes perfect sense on so many levels, given the resources we are working with.  Arias has some experience at 1B and in the OF besides the IF so he gives us good depth.  Rocchio gets a chance to prove himself.  Not sold on his defense yet but, given how he was misused last year which clearly could have negatively impacted his offensive stats, I think it is the best way to go.
• We keep THREE utility players, Fry, Freeman, and the aforementioned Arias.  I love this.  Again, they all should be on the roster given the resources we had to work with to construct the roster.  They give us 'protection', if they hit well, against teams stacking their LHP against us.  Love this if Freeman can, indeed, play a decent CF.  Fry certainly deserves this and if he gets 300 AB this season I hope that everyone will see how valuable he is.
• Carrasco and Beede make the roster.  Given how they performed this ST AND the injuries we have had this is no surprise.  What happens when Williams comes back is the question.  At that point, if there are no other pitching injuries (knuckles knocking on my wood office desk), as the Highlander says, "There can be only one" as we only need one long man and I doubt if we go to a 6 man rotation with only 7 relievers.
• Lively and Curry to the IL - Don't know the reason for this but it may be flu-like virus related.  The likely plan is that, once they are ready, they are built back up and go on a rehab stint at AAA to buy the Guardians time so they don't have to waste an option year on either of them.
• Cade Smith makes the roster...if.  In one of the most interesting and scary things I heard over the past few days regarding the Guardians, Cade Smith has made the roster unless the team trades for anther reliever.  Any of us who lived through Tobias Myers worries what that means.  I would frankly have Smith than any bordeline veteran reliever or any reliever who we have to trade for because it would likely mean we would be trading or DFAing someone on the 40-man roster to clear a roster spot for the new addition.  Aside from Lively and the above-mentioned Florial, there is not a single expendable guy on the 40 man.  Now maybe the FO sees it differently but remember that this is the same FO who gave us Tobias Myers, Justin Boyd/Steve Hajjar and even Juan Brito (when you consider the circumstances of his trade for Nolan Jones).  Bottom line: I don't trust the FO in any trade they make, Manzardo-Civale not withstanding.
• Placed Myles Straw on waivers.   Again, the perfect solution to rip the bandaid off and get him off the active roster.  If he is claimed, we are out from under his contract.  If he decides to become a FA, we are out from under his contract.  If he goes to AAA we pay him like a MLer but he is ML-ready insurance if we are in desperate need for a veteran OFer or if Florial falls on his face as some (including me) expect him to do. 
• Did not roster Chase DeLauter or Kyle Manzardo.  The Guardians can say what they want but this was totally a years of control manipulation play.  Both DeLauter and Manzardo made this team better this year if they were on it.    Plus, if they were on the opening day roster the Guardians were eligible for ROY compensation in next year's draft  if either surprised and had a great rookie year as I think both qualified for that draft compensation if they won ROY.  Bringing them up in May negates that possibility of the Guardians getting ROY compensation although, as we found out with Tanner Bibee last year, you can still lose that extra year of control if either ends up finishing in the top 3 of the ROY voting.   
• All other roster decisions appear to be valid and there weren't any decisions (so far, knock on wood, ewpecially regarding the Cade Smith situation) that would cause us to DFA or trade a real prospect.

SUMMARY

Clearly, I don't like this roster.  The FO did NOTHING to make this team better in the off-season except bring in Barlow at the cost of Quantrill and Enyel De Los Santos AND try to make this offense better by giving the young guys opportunities and doing an addition-by-subtraction move by waiving Myles Straw.  On opening day I will have my prediction for the Guardians' record this year but, given the new manager who is essentially working with the roster that took us from 1st place at the AS break to 76-86 at the end, I could see this team going 61-101 and being boring to watch, to boot.  But at least it appears that, given the hand they were dealt and the results this spring AND that there was never any way that they were going to roster DeLauter and/or Manzardo and lose that extra year of control, they did the best they could with what they had to work with, even being somewhat ingenious in how they worked the system...at least until their next screwup if they pick up a reliever.

The Race to Be 1-1 in 2024 - Part 3 - We Have Some Movement, Houston, Copy?

 The look from the top is VERY interesting.  I have found myself with a totally different perspective than I thought I would have.  I have become very picky, very petty, very conspiracy-theory.   Any little thing sets me off and makes me want to switch allegiances to another guy to draft at 1-1.  

This draft is top heavy in college players and many have performed at a high level so far.  Still, we are entering college play and now is when I start paying a lot of attention to performances and what is behind them.  

So that is what this post is about.  Looking at all the guys in contention for the 1-1 and seeing where they are, with special focus on the college players as I am currently 95% sure the Guardians will pick a college guy first overall this year.

So let's dive in and see what has happened recently, using my current mock:

Travis Bazzana - Bazzana had a good overall weekend although he went 0-4 with a walk on Friday, 3-6 on Saturday and 5-6 with a double and 3 HRs before the 5th inning on Sunday.  He also committed only his first error of the season (on 95 chances, all at 2B).  But, looking deeper, there are concerns.  Bazzana has only stolen 5 bases so far.  With his speed I expected more.  In addition, his production this weekend concerns me.  It is conventional wisdom (don't tell Wake Forest, though), that your Friday starter is your best starting pitcher and it goes downhill from there with your Saturday, Sunday and mid-week starters being less talented/experienced.  If you believe that, Bazzana's performance might, as it does me, give you pause.  He went 0-4 against Utah's Friday night starter then was successful on Saturday and beat up the Sunday starter.  Combined with what I think was a platinum sombrero against Hagen Smith and we may need to look closer on his results last year, last summer and this year against quality pitchers.  I just don't want us to end up with a guy who will flame out in the majors.  I don't think this will happen with his attitude, work ethic, personality.  But we are talking 1-1 here, so...

Charlie Condon - Condon's Georgia Bulldogs were like 17-2 going into this weekend's series against Kentucky, but weren't ranked because of the low level of their non-conference opponents.  This is what is concerning to all of us about Condon.  He is putting up video game numbers, but it is mostly against guys with mediocre fastballs, cement mixer sliders and undeveloped slow stuff.  His performance against higher level competition will be key.  This weekend he went 1-8 with 5 walks and 2 Ks.  On Friday he went 1-3 with a 2B, 2 walks and a HBP (his 7th).  His 2B was in the 9th with the bases loaded and 2 outs but his team was trailing 16-8 at the time. On Saturday he was 0-2 with 3 walks, one of which was very Barry Bonds-esque as it came with the bases loaded.  On Sunday, when Kentucky completed their sweep, Condon went 0-3 with 2 Ks, in a run-rule shortened 7 inning game.  He played an uneventful RF in each game but his defensive profile as a LF/1B type still stands, although he has played some (midweek) CF, 3B and, now in conference play, RF early in the season.   It does appear that the Georgia coaching staff was pimping for him by allowing him to show positional versatility, especially before conference play to enhance his draft value (most teams are not doing that).   It will be interesting to see if he continues in RF and what his defensive production is and whether he is exposed as a defensive liability there, relegating him to his original LF/1B profile with his lack of speed.

Konnor Griffin - HS stats are harder to get but it looks like Griffin's one game this week ended 3-4 and he pitched 6 innings of shutout baseball with 13 Ks.  For the season it appears he has 8 doubles, a triple and 5 -Rs in 42 ABs (walk numbers not available at MaxPreps) and we have all heard about his having an super human 40+ stolen base total this season.  As HS stats are very dependent on competition and guys are facing 88 mph fastballs and inconsistent breaking stuff, it is hard to figure out what all this means but there are so many college players performing at a high level that I don't think his numbers warrant serious consideration at 1-1.  The risk of failure, especially for a HS outfielder, is just too great to risk it when, in theory, there is no way his numbers can ever separate him from college players performing at a high level.

Chase Burns - Burns came into this season with a loud fastball and slider but not much else.  But, on the college level, a ML fastball/slider combination can dominate, if the command is there.  This year he has not dominated including his 7 inning game on Saturday where he struck out 13 and only gave up 3 hits and 2 walks and 1 HR.   So Burns is, essentially, holding serve and sitting at the periphery of 1-1 consideration.  Still, he would need a collapse of at least the college hitters in front of him w/o any drastic upward movement of the college hitters behind him to move into serious 1-1 conversation, especially for a team like the Guardians who need hitters.

Jac Caglianone - When I read reports on him I hear that he could be a legitimate 1st round pick as a pitcher or as a 1B/DH.  But just because you would be the 5th best position player or 5th best pitcher in the draft this year doesn't make you 1-1.  This stuff is not addititive nor is having a second position as a backup plan enough to make a guy 1-1 (thus the picky and petty stuff I mentoned above).  Though he did well in conference play this weekend on both sides of the ball, he isn't making a huge move and, outside of the collapse of other guys, I don't see him as a 1-1 candidate...yet.  However, with all these guys with question marks in performance or injury, he likely could easily pull into the top 5 due to his upside as a polished college player.

Hagen Smith - Like Burns, Smith held serve with a 6 ip/2 H, 0 R/1 BB/10 K conference opener against Missouri.  If he continues to perform, he might pass Burns as his risk of becoming a reliever is much lower than Burns' risk due to Smith's broader repertoire of useable pitches (at the moment).

Nick Kurtz - Kurtz was only performing at a moderately acceptable level before he got hurt recently.   He still has time to improve his draft stock but there is a real chance he could go all Chase DeLauter and fall into the 20s after being in the conversation for 1-1 in January.  Still, I expect him to easily go in the top 7 of the draft based on his complete resume'.

JJ Wetherholt - The early leader in the clubhouse in December, Wetherholt pulled a hamstring, the 2nd in the last 9 months and is still out and has only played in 4 games this year.  He, too, could go DeLauter but I expect him to be in the top 10 if he comes back and is himself later in the season.

So that's it for right now but things are heating up and college conference play could be the great separator that gives us more clarity on who will be the best 1-1 to go after in terms of talent.  If 2 or 3 guys are close, you could be looking at money coming into play as, if you can save a buck among guys who are close in talent, projectability and closeness to the majors, that might, in the end, be the deciding factor.

Way Too Early Look at the Opening Day Roster

 I laugh whenever I see a post titled like this, 6-12 months before the event is supposed to occur. 

But even the construction of an opening day roster makes where we are now to where we have to be in 2+ weeks seem like a year.  So much has already happened and so much can still happen between now and then, as we saw today.  

So, assuming nothing else happens before opening day, here is what I think the opening day roster SHOULD look like:

CATCHERS (3) 

Bo Naylor, Austin Hedges, David Fry

Thoughts: Look, we don't need 3 catchers.  Any that's great.  We only have 2, with Fry being the super utility player.  So far injuries have not impacted the catcher position nor has any performance in ST changed what I thought would happen.

INFIELDERS (6)

3B: Jose Ramirez

SS: Brayan Rocchio

2B: Andres Gimenez

1B: Josh Naylor

DH: Kyle Manzardo

UTIL; Tyler Freeman

Thoughts: A little early for Martinez or Tena, Schneeman not in the picture yet and there is no way, without a trade, that you can keep De Los Santos on the roster as he hasn't shown enough to warrant even the 26th spot.  I think Arias should be sent to AAA.  I believe trading him at this point is a mistake and would rather convince ourselves he is worthless and beyond saving rather than give him away in another typical bad trade and see him bloosom elsewhere.  Hey, I hate that Gio Urshela blossomed somewhere else but feel really comfortable he had his shots here. I don't feel that way, yet, about Arias.

I think we default to this being Manzardo time.  I don't see him as ready and he absolutely the opposite on paper, what we need (another LH hitter and a RH throwing first baseman) but, whatever.   He is young, functional (not fully ready, but functional)

OUTFIELDERS (4)

Kwan, Brenan, Laureano, Straw

Thoughts: This is both the worst case and most predictable case.  Florial was a pipe dream, as was De Los Santos.  It was likely that Noel and Rodriguez were not ready.  The Guardians did nothing either over the winter or up to today (Duvall just signing) to address the outfield production issues we had last year.  In addition, DeLauter is by no means ready and we have 4 guys who ARE ready.  As long as Straw is just the 4th outfielder (and sometime platoon against LH pitching), this is likely an offensive improvement over last year.

STARTING PITCHERS (5)

Beiber, McKenzie, Bibee, Allen, Lively

Thoughts: This is EXACTLY the situation we couldn't find ourselves in: counting on Beiber and McKenzie, with at least one (Williams) injury to the young starters and no reasonable depth starters.  Lively is a black hole (as would Carrasco be).  This is a disaster waiting to happen but, right now, it is our disaster.

BULLPEN (8)

Clase, Morgan, Sandlin, Barlow, Herrin, Curry, Carrasco, Cade Smith

Thoughts: With the news about Hentges it makes me think he will start the season on the IL.  Smith gets this spot by default (Stephan) as I think Gaddis gets stretched out at Columbus in anticipation of the next disaster.  Carrasco is the veteran presence in the bullpen.  The big question mark at this point is Barlow as, if you saw his last performance, you know he had the ugliest clean, 2 strikeout inning imaginable, with a 2-0 count on the first batter leading to a FB to the warning track, a 3 ball count to the second batter and a 3-0 count to the 3rd batter followed by a crushed ball just foul down the line followed by a 3-2 strikeout.  So this bullpen may not be what it will be on opening day because I think it is 50-50 whether Barlow opens the season on the IL and not much better whether he makes it through May before being released, given the way he has pitched this spring.

So, there it is.  My opening day roster.  Bland, blah, and the type of roster that could easily lead to a 61-101 record this year.  But that is getting ahead of myself.  Predictions won't appear here for another 2+ weeks, coinciding with opening day.

2024 Draft - Part 11 - How Much Money Do We Have to Play With?

 OK, even with Snell still being a FA we know where we stand as far as all of the Guardians' draft slots for 2024.  We don't have the official word on the bonus pools or slot values yet but we can guess that each slot value will be about 10% greater than it was in 2023.  Using that increase, here's what we are looking at for all their picks.  For picks #327 and beyond, anything over $150,000 would count against their overall bonus. 

#1 - $10,693,0000

#36 - $2,596,000

#48 - $1,958,000

#84 - $917,290

#114 - $644,600

#147 - $467,610

#177 -$355,190

#207 - $277,750

#237 - $222,420

#267 - $196,900

#297 - $184,910                                        

#327 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0

#357 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0

#387 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0

#417 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0

#447 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0

#477 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0

#507 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0

#537 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0

#567 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0

#597 - Bonus - $150,000, if < 0 then = 0

Cleveland Guardians' 2024 estimated budget pool: $18,513,670

Budget pool plus 4.99% (maximum overage to avoid losing a future 1st rd draft pick): $19,437,502

In 2023, the Guardians had a total draft budget of $8,736,700.  

Obviously they can get really good players from this draft IF they choose wisely and IF their draftees are not selfish about trying to get every dollar possible.  They are becoming part of a franchise that is run to be competitive for the playoffs, even without bringing in expensive veterans, for the next 10 years.  It also likely gives them more money in rounds 11-20 than they ever have had, assuming they use the entire 4.99% overage and don't cheap out on this draft year.  That could make this draft, if the draft people choose wisely, the best draft in the history of the Guardians.

By comparison, the Pirates had a draft budget of $16,185,000 in 2023.  If they had spent the overage it would have been $16,992,631, still $2.5 million less than the Guardians if they spend their overage. 

So, let's go!!!

2024 Draft - Part 10 - Draft-Eligible Sophomores - No Bargains There

Leverage is a VERY important part of any negotiation.  

In the baseball draft leverage can be with the team or with the player. 

The team usually gets leverage in 3 ways:

• A college junior will lose leverage if they don't sign because college seniors have zero leverage (i.e., they can't go back to college again) and often settle for bonuses in the $1,000 - $100,000 range.  As most bonuses for college juniors, especially in the now-truncated 20 round draft, are above $125,000, you can see where the leverage comes from.
• With high school players, team leverage usually comes from the player wanting to cash in on their success in high school.   And some kids simply don't really want to go to college and are more than willing to sign for that $125,000.  
• For all draft-eligible players, they may simply feel that the risk of future injury or underperformance may hurt their draftability, and their eventual bonus, so they are willing to take the bird in the hand now rather than trust that they can get more in 3 years after their HS junior year.

Leverage for players usually comes from 2 places:

• HS kids who have good college scholarship offers to colleges that develop pro ballplayers.  With the name/image/license money that is now available (not so much with baseball compared to football, though) this makes it more difficult to sign HS players unless they get a great bonus.
• For college kids, it is being a draft eligible sophomore.  There are 2 types of draft eligible sophomores:
• Players who have redshirted either their SCHOLASTIC freshman or sophomore years and are now, scholastically, a college junior.
• Players who were 19 years old when they graduated high school and will turn 21 by August 1st of their draft year.  These players truly have been in college only 2 years, scholastically, but their age when they started college and their birthdate gives them the ability to be drafted as true sophomores.

It's this last group, draft-eligible sophomores, that will be the subject of this post. Those players have A LOT of leverage and so could really eat up our budget.  As mentioned previously, Alex Mooney likely ate up a lot of our draft budget, including overages that were penalized 100%, and money likely earmarked for one or both of our two unsigned HS pitchers, Marohn and Heuer.  

So let's take a look at the best of these 2 types of draft eligible sophomores.  I have included their current MLB Pipeline ranking with the proviso that this ranking is now 3 months old.

4. Charlie Condon - OF -Georgia Condon - Scholastic Jr - Redshirt 

12. Malcolm Moore - C - Stanford - 19 yr old HS graduate, 7/31/2003 birthdate

25. Cam Smith - 3B - Florida St. - 19 yr old HS graduate, 2/20/2003 birthdate

26. Carson Benge - OF/RHP - Oaklahoma St. - Scholastic Jr. - Redshirt

27. Dakota Jordan - OF - Miss. St. - 19 year old HS graduate, 5/9/2003 birthdate

38. Anthony Silva - 3B - TCU - 19 year old HS graduate, 7/17/2003 birthdate

46. Gage Jump, LHP - LSU - Scholastic Jr. - Redshirt

47. Kevn Bazzell C - Texas Tech - Scholastic Jr. - transferred after enrolling in 2022, had to sit out until 2023.

50. Billy Amick 3B - Clemson - Scholastic Jr. -  Redshirt

That's 8 of the top 36 college draft prospects this year, making this year very unusual and allowing it to be dubbed as the year of the draft-eligible sophomore, a group that also includes other studs from the MLB Pipeline top like 64. Austin Overn - OF - USC - 19 year old HS graduate - 5/10/2003 birthdate, among others from MLB Pipeline's top 100 prospects list from Dec. 2023.

NOTE: In thinking about this a little more, maybe a good draft strategy would be to draft the talented sophomores early, i.e., after 1.1.  Teams may hold back as those guys eat up your draft budget due to their leverage.  With our windfall and likely higher-than-usual savings because we own 1.1, maybe we build a war chest to sign a bunch of sophomores early.  Don't know if that will work but I think that this might be a better use of our excess than to sign HS players who have dropped.  From research I had done before the likely gems left after the first few rounds are HS pitchers and I am thinking overpaying for college sophomores is better, in theory, than overpaying for stud HS pitchers who have dropped because their bonus demands might be much greater than their current ability/projections to future ability.  

Guardians 26-man roster. Part 1 - Two weeks in and where do we go from here?

 OK, what do we know so far:

• Estevan Florial is exactly who we all knew he was.  A toolsy AAAA player who looks good in a uniform but can't play at the ML level.  He will always get plenty of chances, with his tools, with each team he plays for hoping the light will go on some day.  But with our pathetic hitting coach/ hitting development staff, it is not happening here.
• Deyvson De Los Santos is not ready for the majors.   We need to find a way to trade for him so we can send him to the minors.  Again: Jose Tena, Myles Straw & $3 million for Jorge Barrosa and the rights to De Los Santos.
• Tyler Freeman should have been playing the OF for a year now.  Look, his bat makes him an upgrade in CF from Straw.  Straw has not shown any improvement this year in his hitting.  He looks like the same old guy as evidenced by the balls he hit in his first two ABs this spring not going 100 feet...combined.  But it is an equation:  offense PLUS defense.  Right now it is hard to believe that Freeman's offensive upgrade will be worth the downgrade in defense, compared to Straw.
• It appears that David Fry is being shoved out of a position and will end up in Columbus.  The goal of having him focus on his catching is admirable for the Guardians.  Of course, it gives them the opportunity to say they are only going to carry 2 catchers and so Fry will be going to Columbus to work on his catching when, in fact, he is the most valuable 26th man in baseball, being able to catch and play 1B, 3B, LF and RF at a VERY acceptable level. Whether Fry ends up at AAA or in the majors on opening day, it won't likely impact the number of wins and losses we have.  It will, however, keep us from having Austin Hedges have to bat as often & give us another RH bat off the bench.
• Will Brennan - So far he looks like the same player as last year.  That is not a good thing
• Juan Brito - For the first time since the trade to Cleveland he looks, to me, to be lost at the plate.  It appears that the information the hitting department is giving him made him change his whole approach at the plate.  He is now swinging at balls he would never have swung at last year and not putting good swings on balls he would have punished last year.  
• Angel Martinez is having a great spring.  The fact that people are dreaming on him being the opening day SS shows just how pathetic Brayan Rocchio and Gabriel Arias have looked so far.  
• Anthony Banda, Adam Oller, Tyler Zuber, Jamie Barria - All of these MiLB free agent signings look terrible and they should all be cut right now instead of wasting another ST or minor league inning on them.
• Ben Lively, Tyler Beede - Neither look like any more than AAAA filler right now.  They are both struggling and, when you are battling for a spot, you shouldn't be struggling like this in early ST against hitters who are behind.
• Jhonkensy Noel, Jonathon Rodriguez - Neither of these guys look much better than Florial at this point.  Swinging at pitches way out of the zone, swinging and missing at fastballs in the zone.

No one is looking good right now except for DeLauter and Martinez.  I mean NOBODY.  You can't put too much emphasis on ST results (remember Roman Quinn's 3 HRs in the first 2 ST games last year!), but we know what guys are supposed to be good, who we want to be good, and who we, in our wildest dreams would like to do good.  So far, not much is going right for this team this spring exxcept that, outside of Stephan and Karinchak, it appears that injuries are being kept to a miimum.

So, at this point, nothing I have seem sways me from believing that this could actually be a 100 loss team this year.  Hopefully things change in the near future and they actually start looking like a playoff contender.

The Race to Be 1-1 in 2024 - Part 2 - Where We Are After 3 College Weekends

 OK, so we are still very early in the college season and here is what I see so far:

• My current ranking looks like this
1. Travis Bazzana (Looks solid, man, just solid)
2. Nick Kurtz (barely hanging on to 2nd place as he cannot seem to buy a hit, going 9-38 with 1 2B and 2 HR so far, to go along with 18 BB and 8 K)
3. JJ Wetherholt (falling due to his hamstring injury and resultant down time)
4. Konnor Griffin - Only one HS outfielder has gone 1-1 in the last 10 drafts.  Mickey Moniak.  Need I say more?
5. Charlie Condon -  draft-eligible sophomore and I see him not being a great defender, not being fast and NOT coming cheap. 
6. Hagen Smith (his success is hard to argue against good competition this year (31 K and only 4 BB and 5 hits in 13 innings), but with his stuff, history and control/command he doesn't, to me, project to be anything more than a solid/good #2 starter or more likely a league best, excellent #3.  Certainly in the conversation for the top 10 picks in the 2024 draft but not 1-1 material, at least not yet, IMO)
7. Jac Caglianone  - The talent is there but Branden McKay was the last 2 way player drafted and we know how that turned out.
8. Tommy White
9. Chase Burns
10. Braden Montgomery
11. Dakota Jordan
12. Seaver King
13. Brody Brecht
14. Vance Honeycutt
15. Cam Caminiti
• Travis Bazzana has become my new leader for selection at 1-1.  The exit velocities, the hit tool, the speed (which I think IS diminished this year as he is only 3-5 in SB attempts so far through 12 games and he looks slow running), the work ethic, great off-field stuff.  He is the whole package.  The more and more I read and hear about him says that he should be our #1 pick.  The only things that lobby against him are that he isn't going to be super flashy and so doesn't look coming out of the draft as a sure-fire HOF candidate if he just progresses linearly (no superstar vibes, that is) and he doesn't really have a defensive home.  But when you put him up against Kurtz (a first baseman, not being pitched to in college, hurting views of him) or Wetherholt (injury issues and no real defensive home yet) and Burns (questionable 3td pitch and spotty control) and Charlie Condon (questions about his power, speed and defense at the pro level), Bazzana looks like the guy to me and I am a picky dude.
• Nick Kurtz isn't getting pitched to and any blemish, even not getting pitched to, has to weigh in on whether a guy goes 1-1.  Plus, he already has one strike against him by being a first baseman.  Someone is going to be very happy to get Kurtz on draft day.  Just thinking right now that it won't be the Guardians.
• JJ Wetherholt is now behind the 8-ball.  His 2nd hamstring injury in 6 months screams, 'Yeah, great player but is he a good gamble at 1-1'.  Hey, when you are at 1-1 the secondary things besides on-field talent mean a lot.  With his injury, Wetherholt may actually drop out of the top 3. as I might go for Burns or Condon ahead of him.  Heck, he might go as low as 8 at this rate.
• Charlie Condon is going off but he still has baggage  that might make 1:1 difficult (bad CCL last summer, no speed, defensive question marks and, even though it hasn't been mentioned, he is functionally a draft-eligible sophomore, meaning their might be questions about getting him for a bargain to save money for later picks.
• Vance Honeycutt turning himself into a solid mid-first round gamble.
• We are seeing a lot of performances so far that will spice up the first round
• Hagen Smith's 17 Ks in 18 outs against Oregon St. and Travis Bazzana plus his 12 in 6 on Friday night
• Konnor Griffin's tools and the kind of eye-popping HS results that can be real or a mirage
• Burns' first start
• Dakota Jordan's exit velos

It's just starting and it's heating up.  But you all have to unseat Travis Bazzana from the top of the mountain and he is so firmly entrenched right now in my eyes that it looks like an earth bender has locked him into that spot.  

I can see this turning into a week-to-week leapfrog based on performance.  But this is 1-1.  The Guardians cannot blow this one going for a brass ring that never materializes.  That's why it's Bazzana for me, at least now.  Maybe in 5 years I am kicking myself when pundits do a re-draft and a couple of guys (Griffin, some late riser) have sprinted ahead of him.  But Bazzana is the classic bird in the hand.  And if he continues to show out, I am happy with a bird in the hand like him.