Sunday, March 3, 2024

The Race to Be 1-1 in 2024 - Part 2 - Where We Are After 3 College Weekends

 OK, so we are still very early in the college season and here is what I see so far:

  • My current ranking looks like this
    1. Travis Bazzana (Looks solid, man, just solid)
    2. Nick Kurtz (barely hanging on to 2nd place as he cannot seem to buy a hit, going 9-38 with 1 2B and 2 HR so far, to go along with 18 BB and 8 K)
    3. JJ Wetherholt (falling due to his hamstring injury and resultant down time)
    4. Konnor Griffin - Only one HS outfielder has gone 1-1 in the last 10 drafts.  Mickey Moniak.  Need I say more?
    5. Charlie Condon -  draft-eligible sophomore and I see him not being a great defender, not being fast and NOT coming cheap. 
    6. Hagen Smith (his success is hard to argue against good competition this year (31 K and only 4 BB and 5 hits in 13 innings), but with his stuff, history and control/command he doesn't, to me, project to be anything more than a solid/good #2 starter or more likely a league best, excellent #3.  Certainly in the conversation for the top 10 picks in the 2024 draft but not 1-1 material, at least not yet, IMO)
    7. Jac Caglianone  - The talent is there but Branden McKay was the last 2 way player drafted and we know how that turned out.
    8. Tommy White
    9. Chase Burns
    10. Braden Montgomery
    11. Dakota Jordan
    12. Seaver King
    13. Brody Brecht
    14. Vance Honeycutt
    15. Cam Caminiti
  • Travis Bazzana has become my new leader for selection at 1-1.  The exit velocities, the hit tool, the speed (which I think IS diminished this year as he is only 3-5 in SB attempts so far through 12 games and he looks slow running), the work ethic, great off-field stuff.  He is the whole package.  The more and more I read and hear about him says that he should be our #1 pick.  The only things that lobby against him are that he isn't going to be super flashy and so doesn't look coming out of the draft as a sure-fire HOF candidate if he just progresses linearly (no superstar vibes, that is) and he doesn't really have a defensive home.  But when you put him up against Kurtz (a first baseman, not being pitched to in college, hurting views of him) or Wetherholt (injury issues and no real defensive home yet) and Burns (questionable 3td pitch and spotty control) and Charlie Condon (questions about his power, speed and defense at the pro level), Bazzana looks like the guy to me and I am a picky dude.
  • Nick Kurtz isn't getting pitched to and any blemish, even not getting pitched to, has to weigh in on whether a guy goes 1-1.  Plus, he already has one strike against him by being a first baseman.  Someone is going to be very happy to get Kurtz on draft day.  Just thinking right now that it won't be the Guardians.
  • JJ Wetherholt is now behind the 8-ball.  His 2nd hamstring injury in 6 months screams, 'Yeah, great player but is he a good gamble at 1-1'.  Hey, when you are at 1-1 the secondary things besides on-field talent mean a lot.  With his injury, Wetherholt may actually drop out of the top 3. as I might go for Burns or Condon ahead of him.  Heck, he might go as low as 8 at this rate.
  • Charlie Condon is going off but he still has baggage  that might make 1:1 difficult (bad CCL last summer, no speed, defensive question marks and, even though it hasn't been mentioned, he is functionally a draft-eligible sophomore, meaning their might be questions about getting him for a bargain to save money for later picks.
  • Vance Honeycutt turning himself into a solid mid-first round gamble.
  • We are seeing a lot of performances so far that will spice up the first round
    • Hagen Smith's 17 Ks in 18 outs against Oregon St. and Travis Bazzana plus his 12 in 6 on Friday night
    • Konnor Griffin's tools and the kind of eye-popping HS results that can be real or a mirage
    • Burns' first start
    • Dakota Jordan's exit velos
It's just starting and it's heating up.  But you all have to unseat Travis Bazzana from the top of the mountain and he is so firmly entrenched right now in my eyes that it looks like an earth bender has locked him into that spot.  

I can see this turning into a week-to-week leapfrog based on performance.  But this is 1-1.  The Guardians cannot blow this one going for a brass ring that never materializes.  That's why it's Bazzana for me, at least now.  Maybe in 5 years I am kicking myself when pundits do a re-draft and a couple of guys (Griffin, some late riser) have sprinted ahead of him.  But Bazzana is the classic bird in the hand.  And if he continues to show out, I am happy with a bird in the hand like him.

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