Looking Ahead To the 2025 Season - Part 1 - Roster Management - Who Is Gone, Who Might Be Gone and Why

 OK, so the Guardians' season is over.  Some people will want to lament or even be angry over the loss to the Yankees.

I get it, although I think looking backward doesn't help you find your path going forward.  

So, in this first post, let's look at our current roster and see who should/will/might be gone next year.  It is a good time for this as the November roster freeze is coming, and we have lots of interesting prospects who need to be protected this winter.

WHO SHOULD BE GONE...AND WHY

Triston McKenzie 

This, to me, is the easiest of decisions.  McKenzie was an up-and-coming pitching prospect who looked like a sure-fire #3 starter with significant upside over that.   He then had a variety of injuries, leading to the penultimate elbow injury in 2023.  He chose not to have surgery and just rehabilitate the elbow, leading to a disastrous 2024 where he was one of the absolute worst starting pitchers in the majors and wasn't much better at AAA Columbus.  Triston has chosen his path (non-surgical/rehab) and it has turned out badly for him.   At this point, even if he chooses surgery, he is not worth keeping, even at a relatively small arbitration cost.  I would try like heck to trade him and get what you can for him and, if that doesn't work, non-tender him.  Until he has that surgery, I don't believe he will ever come close to reaching his potential or even be a viable #5 starter.  Alternatively, they could keep him if they think they could convert him to a leverage reliever.

Nick Sandlin

Look, Sandlin is not a bad pitcher.  He is a solid middle man.  But we have relief prospects on the way (or here, in Walters and Sabrowski) who can step in and offer more long-term upside and versatility than Sandlin.  

Don't get me wrong.  I think Sandlin could bring a solid return in a trade, maybe in a salary eat like the Barlow - De Los Santos trade last year. But on this team you can only have 1-2 guys in relief who are not strikeout pitchers and those spots are already taken by Eli Morgan and Pedro Avila.

Logan Allen

I love what Allen has done.  He has busted his rear for Cleveland but his performance in Columbus after his demotion was very disappointing.  It looks more and more like he is a flash in the pan or, at best, a #5 starter.  Unless you send him to the bullpen and get his stuff to play up there, the Guardians have Webb, Nikhazy, Messick, Peterson, Mace, Davenport and Denholm who could, at various points in 2025, become a 5th starter as good or better (due to less familiarity by our opponents) than Allen.  Not that Logan Allen is a bad baseball player.  It's just he's not a good one.  That being said, he can be an innings eater SP on a rebuilding team and will be cheap this year so he has trade value.  So I think he is tendered a contract if he makes it to November but my hope is that they trade him before the roster freeze.

Connor Gillaspie

This is an easy one.  He is currently just a roster placeholder and I suspect he will be a November roster freezed casualty.  It is very possible that he clears waivers and we outright him to Columbus

Peter Strzelecki

Like Gillaspie, he is just a roster placeholder for November.  Unlike Gillaspie, I doubt Strzelecki clears waivers but, if he does and we can outright him, I would like to keep him on the Columbus roster if he survives the Rule 5.

Will Brennan

I just don't see him improving at all. When he came back from Columbus he was a slap hitter and may have fooled some that he was becoming a productive player.  But I don't see it.  His lack of progress really makes him a backup player but without the mentality of a veteran backup.  He either goes in a trade or is DFA'd before the November freeze.

Myles Straw

I think they will continue to actively try to trade Myles Straw.  When I say 'continue', I think it is pretty obvious that they have tried to trade him and I see him being traded as part of a larger deal where they include money to cover most of his 2025 salary.  For a rebuilding team like the White Sox, getting Straw essentially for free might be enticing although the Guardians will want to allow that as part of a larger deal where they get what they want.

THOSE WHO MIGHT BE GONE...AND WHY...AND FOR WHO

Josh Naylor

The math has been told over and over again this year.

• Naylor will make over $12 MM a year in his last year of arbitration
• The rumors are that the Guardians aren't willing to make him a fat, long-term offer and that Naylor isn't willing to take a team discount just to stay in Cleveland (like Ramirez did)
• Kyle Manzardo is ready to step in at 1B and Jhonkensy Noel and David Fry can also play there with others (maybe Juan Brito and, down the road, CJ Kayfus) in the wings.

On the other side of that is Josh Naylor's performance

• He had 30+ HRs and 100+ RBI and was the best available protection for Ramirez in the batting order in 2024. 
• He played almost every day and, truth be told, would have played every day if allowed to
• He accomplished all that while being what I will call EXCESSIVELY hurt this year, causing him to not be able to keep up with his conditioning and put on A LOT of weight.  No doubt he would have performed better in the post-season had he not had all those physical challenges.

Plus, his brother is the Guardians' starting catcher.  

If we trade him it is because we can cash in for him.   Unfortunately, some of the things I have heard are:

• Advanced metrics are not as favorable as his raw HR and RBI numbers
• People think we will have to throw in a prospect to be able to trade him for a mid-rotation SP with some control. In fact, the deals I have seen proposed look more like deadline deals if we are our of the race in July 2025.
• David Fry's elbow may make it so he can only DH in 2025 if he has to have surgery (similar to Ohtani in 2024)

All of these are confusing to me but one thing is clear: NAYLOR IS WORTH MORE TO THE GUARDIANS THAN A MID-ROTATION STARTING PITCHER.

Although the Guardians don't hold onto guys like Naylor who enter their walk year unsigned, and I don't think they want to sign him to an extension until they see how he comes out of his off-season conditioning, I say that you keep Naylor UNLESS you get overwhelmed with an offer that brings you a top of rotation SP or a proven power-hitting OFer with a few years of control.  

It's unfortunate that our FO can't swing a good deal when they have a lot to offer, but that is our reality.  To way that we are going to trade Josh Naylor just because we can is not enough.  This is an arithmetic equation.  What comes in has to be > or = to what goes out or our team is weaker next year, overall.  You can disagree but that is my take.

James Karinchak

I think his personality quirks, his ability to fall apart at any given moment and the possibility that his previous success was due to, how can I say this, some manipulation of the baseball that is no longer allowed, makes him vulnerable.  Still, however, I hope they don't just dump him in a DFA move or do another horrible Scott Barlow-like trade with him.  But it is possible, given all the peripheral issues with Karinchak, that they just do an addition by subtraction move with him.  That would be throwing the baby out with the bathwater, especially given the overuse of our bullpen in 2024.  So, I hope we just keep him and see what he brings next spring.  Truthfully, except for Aleman, we have no one in the minors with the upside of Karinchak if we choose to start him at Columbus next year.

Gabriel Arias

Don't be surprised to see him as part of a large deal this fall/winter.  Aside from that I think we go into ST with him next year.  DFAing him seems too easy and only a way to show our disappointment in his development.  Again, addition by subtraction here seems unwarranted.  Now, if he is the same, old Arias next spring, he gets DFA'd after ST.

OVERALL SUMMARY OF ROSTER MANAGEMENT

The above players represent the ones who I think the Guardians will likely dangle in trades or simply non-tender or DFA.  Obviously, anyone on the roster with the exception of Bibee, Williams, Lively, Clase, Ramirez, Kwan, Gimenz and Smith is a possible tradeable asset from the less likely Gaddis, Herrin, Walters, Sabrowski, Manzardo, Fry, Espino, Avila, Cantillo, Rocchio and Bo Naylor to the more tradeable assets like Freeman, Noel, JRod, Valera, Schneeman, Brito, Morgan or any Rule 5-eligible guy who needs to be added this winter.  I do think they will focus on trading major leaguers or ML ready guys who have to be rostered this winter.  I don't think you will see any of the lower level minor leaguers like Genao traded as most teams want ML-ready players and the Guardians have a whole slew of them on the 40-man and guys who will need to be added to the 40-man this winter who are close to, if not ML ready by ST 2025.  I also don't think you will see DeLauter traded as teams would be trying to buy low on him and the Guardians would not be able to get good value for him, at least what I believe is his value.

Time will tell.  I won't hold my breath that there is a big trade but my next post will list a couple that I think are doable.

Antonetti/Vogt 2024 Season Wrap-Up Press Conference - My thoughts

 The parable about the 3 blind men and the elephant comes to mind when I think of all the summaries of this zoom call press conference that I have heard.

So, to add another take, here goes:

1. George Valera gets his 4th option year. Now, when some people come up with a prediction like this they bring up an old tweet and say, in their own way, "I told you so".  I won't do that, posting, instead, to this blog, that nobody reads anyway, right?

Two details from Antonetti's comments on this topic:

• The Guardians didn't have to apply for Valera to get the extra option year
• Valera was granted, by MLB, an extra option year as Antonetti put it "based on his history and minor league performance.

This decision by MLB brings hope that Noel (in 2025) could have a 4th option and Brito (in 2026) could get a 4th option a year later as he has one left that he will likely use sometime in 2025.

(3) Most interesting to me was Antonetti's comments on the off-season outlook

• He said that how the Guardians will do in 2025 will be dependent on the progress of the guys who are already here
• The team will try to balance that with acquisitions when felt that those acquisitions can help them reach their goal of winning the WS.

(4) Vogt said that the team wants its players to have more resources going forward, starting this off-season.  Not sure what that means but the tone implies that they MIGHT want the players to take advantage of places like Driveline and hitting schools to improve their performance.  It also could include things like more access to analytics and more interaction with the coaching staff over the winter.

(5) As far as the injured ML pitchers, Antonetti commented (I have summarized and also projected timelines based on his comments, so these are not his exact words)

• Beiber's timeline is somewhere between next April and September but that his progress, so far, makes it look like the shorter end (June?).
• Stephan is on about the same timeline although it is more likely that he could be back in April or May as relievers tend to have a quicker recovery from TJ surgery as they don't have to have the innings buildup SP do.
• Hentges is out for the entire 2025 season.
• Karinchak will be ready for 2025 spring training and has one minor league option left (per Fangraphs)

(6) Antonetti said they will continue to support Bieber's rehab and CA went to extremes to say what Bieber has meant to the organization in his time here.  Some might take that as a farewell knowing they can't meet his asking price.  I tend to take that as him saying how important they think he would be to their future.  He said that the team told Bieber how much they would love to have him back and Bieber was interested.  But every team and every free agent says that stuff around this time of year, sooooo...

(7)  Among renovations this winter the clubhouse will have a massive renovation with more room and state of the art facilities for the players.

(8) Vogt sounded optimistic about Rocchio and Bo Naylor in terms of how much progress they have made this year but hard to tell if that is real enthusiasm for having those players be part of 2025 and beyond or just company speak to camouflage their intent to upgrade at SS and C in the off-season.

(8) Vogt said he wouldn't change a decision he made in the post-season and that they had planned for every scenario in the post-season with the coaching staff, analytics and others having a voice, meaning that the process, based on analytics, is what will determine things going forward.  This, to me, as a science guy, is good news.  Consistency tends to bring good results because everyone knows what is expected of them.  I think, although we might not agreed with all of his principles, is something Francona should have taught all of us.

(9 Vogt said how important Craig Albernaz was to the team this year.  I would be worried because Albie is being interviewed for managerial jobs but I think with what Vogt has learned from him this this year, Albernaz is a nice to have for the 2025 coaching staff but not, like he was in 2024, a must have.

(10) They are partnering with Gimenez this off-season to make his offense more consistent. This, to me, could mean they are having him attending a hitting school somewhere. Antonetti fell short of saying Gimenez was a cornerstone of this team which, to me, is interesting, because sliding him over to SS, IMO, makes him a cornerstone.  

(11) Regarding starting pitching and pitching in general Antonetti stressed they have a good young core of pitchers in the majors but that the also have a number of young pitchers "on the cusp" of helping the ML team.  I think this speaks volumes for guys like Aleman, Webb, Nikhazy, Davenport, Denholm, Messick, Peterson and Mace as well as relievers like Enright, Misiaszek and Mikolajchak and others for the bullpen.  He did say they value veteran SP implying that they would look at FAs where they could (Bieber, Boyd, Cobb, other value guys) but that they would also consider going with the young guys who, as he said, are "on the cusp".  I think this may spell them moving on from McKenzie and Allen to add 2021 draftess to the roster this winter to avoid losing them in the Rule 5.

So there are my impressions.  Don't know if I am just another blind man examining the elephant.  I guess we will see.

Post For A Saturday - Backs-Against-The-Wall Edition

 I have heard a few times over the past week "Don't let them celebrate at our field"

I love the sentiment...as a motivator at a high school basketball game.  

I don't know if motivation works the same way in an ALCS.  

However, if you add in "Don't let those arrogant, elitist, 15 year WS-less Yankees..." I am good.

I am a pragmatist.  The only team that can come from a 3-1 deficit on the road in the MLB playoffs is someone PLAYING AGAINST Cleveland so I doubt that we will win this series.

But there is this little thing called momentum.  The pressure is clearly on the Yankees, that is, the 15-year WS drought Yankees.  IF they don't win tonight they can tell themselves they can still win at home in the next two games.  If they would lose game 6 they could tell themselves it's OK, we'll win game 7.  And, if they DO win Game 7, after losing 5 and 6, they would likely look back and say, "Crap, we barely beat those loser Cleveland Guardians"

So we don't have to win the series to WIN the series, if you know what I mean.  

So, little battles.

Pitch by pitch, inning by inning.  Just like they have done it all season. 

I sense the Guardians will win today.  Only one playoff team gets to end their season with a win.  But if you can end a great season by winning your least game at home...well...that's something great, no matter how the chips fall when you return to New York.

Your fans have been with you all year.  Your teammates have been with you all year.  Let's win this last home game of the season for Cleveland.

Go Guardians.

Friday Post - Greatest Cleveland Playoff Game Ever Hangover Post

 A few thoughts heading into game 4

(1) Like so many Guardians fans, I have watched the highlights on X over and over again.  English, Spanish, Hammy, Anderson, soundless, fan cam, MLB cam, with music overlayed, long distance view (always my favorite).  All of them were great.  

(2) I continue to be disappointed at Yankee fans, both on the internet and in person.  One fan's accounting of the arrogance of Yankee fans at the game last night (one fan called out to a group of Guardians fans something like 'It's OK to be a loser' after the Judge/Stanton HRs);

I have said this before and will say it over and over again:  New Yorkers have recently survived September 11th and the worst of COVID (which hit NYC hard and very early).  New Yorkers are strong, vibrant, fiercely resilent people.

So why do Yankees fans have to be entitled, arrogant, disrespectful butt holes?  

It's just a bad look and you have to ask yourself, if every other team in baseball WANTS your team to lose, and you haven't been to the World Series in 15 years, don't you think it is time to lose the elitist, taunting, degrading attitudes and just be mensch?    I mean, why not start today?

(3) The play by Gimenez, the AB by Gimenez, the play by Josh Naylor on Gimenez's great play, the AB by Thomas, the HR by Manzardo, the basehit by Bo Naylor, the outing by Avila and even the outing by Walters also should be remembered in this game.

(4) Some of the crazy numbers/records that came out of this game amaze me.  There are too many to list but one that sticks in my mind is that David Fry is the only player  in MLB history who has 2 go-ahead HRs in the 7th inning or later in his ENITRE post-season CAREER.   And he did it in one year and against good relief pitchers, too AND in pressure-packed situations.

(5) Finally, these thoughts on Game 4:

• Just keep continuing to play Guards ball.  
• Williams needs to give us as much as he can for as long as he can.  
• Cantillo will be needed in this game and needs to be deployed at the beginning of an inning.  This is his redemption game, just like last game was Walters'.
• If Emmanuel Clase is reading this, all us Guardians fans love you.  We are there with you as you take the mound today and for the rest of this post-season.  
• Go Guardians and we will see you on the other side of Game 4.  We are with you in person and in spirit.  Thanks for the amazing memories so far and we are rooting for you to build on them.

Thoughts For A Tuesday - Coming Home and Remembering The Diamondbacks

HEADED BACK TO CLEVELAND. WHAT TO EXPECT

 The Guardians come home after two games in New York that featured bad starting pitching, bad managing, bad defense and bad clutch hitting.  

Pretty much, they did nothing right.  It was discouraging to the diehard fan who no doubt hoped for a split and was really concerned about winning the series if we returned to Cleveland down 0-2.

Well, for those of us who fall in that category, I wanted to remind you of the 2023 NLCS.  

Arizona played heavily favored Philadelphia, as Philly was 90-72 during the regular season and Arizona squeaked in as the last wildcard team at 84-78 and Philly won the season series at 4-3 although the teams hadn't played since June.  

The first two games in Philly did nothing to change the perception of them being the dominant team as they won 5-3 and 10-0.   The teams then went to Arizona where the Diamondbacks won 2 very close games, 2-1 and 6-5, both late game comebacks, to tie the series.  In the last game in Arizona the Phillies won decisively, 6-1, meaning they only had to win one of two games when the series moved back to Philadelphia.  However, the Diamondbacks would win the last two, 5-1 and 4-2.  Paul Sewald, the Diamondbacks closer, had two saves and a win and pitched in 4 games.

The point here is that the Guardians' season is only over if they lose 2 games in Cleveland (duh!!!).  The Diamondbacks did it last year in EXACTLY the same position the Guardians are in right now. 

I don't know how this series will turn out but I have a good feeling about it.   I don't always have a good feeling about Guardians playoff series but I have a good feeling about this one.  

MY THOUGHTS: GAMES 1 and 2

As I said above, these two games were mismanaged by Vogt, misplayed on defense by Rocchio, Brennan, the Naylor boys and Hedges.  And none of our hitters hit in the clutch, especially in the winnable game 2.   

We can't cry over spilt milk but it would have really helped if:

• Fry could catch
• If our starters could show enough to give the manager the encouragement to leave them in for more than a few outs
• If our hitters like Brennan, Bo Naylor and Noel could find a way to imitate Brayan Rocchio
• If Ramirez and Naylor could become the clutch hitters we need them to be to win this series
• If our manager would make more obvious choices (Cantillo to start the 3rd inning instead of coming in with the bases loaded)

I think all these things can be fixed, in some way, except for Fry catching.

I think we find a way to win 2 of 3 or maybe even 3 of 3 in Cleveland and put the pressure back on the Yankees by carrying momentum into game 6.  Remember, it is the Yankees who haven't won a WS in 15 years.  The pressure should be on them and, if we play well, we can put it back on them.

I have faith...and this from a guy who predicted them to have a 61-101 record in 2024. 

I have faith...if we play and manage Guardsball.

Thoughts For A Sunday Night - On The Way to New York Edition

 1. Game 5 vs Detroit

Vogt will be the AL Manager of the Year now that his top competitors have been eliminated.   That being said, I knew he was choking today's game before it even started when he decided to start Bo Naylor and Noel instead of Martinez and Hedges.  This is a sign of a guy overthinking it and, as expected, little Nalz and Noel went 0-7 with a bunch of Ks and weak contact.

Seeing that lineup made me also really sure that he would panic and remove Boyd at the first sign of trouble and then create a bullpen mess the rest of the game.  That's exactly what happened.   

Leave in hitters who don't hit, remove a SP who is dealing.  Check.

People will respond and say that the Guardians won the game.  That they did, but at what cost.

• Our relievers are way, way overworked
• Gaddis with his two largest pitch counts ever, coming in back-to-back games.
• Clase with a two inning save for only the second time in his career
• Smith, Herrin, Gaddis all pitching in all 5 games, many being overextended beyond anything they have ever done
• Pulling same handed pitchers and replacing them with opposite handed pitchers leading to unfavorable matchups.
• Our starters are underworked
• Our remaining pitchers either have their confidence damaged or destroyed.
• He failed to give young guys chances
• Manzardo for Fry in the 9th would have gone a ways to help in the next series
• Daniel Schneeman didn't get a touch
• Angel Martinez hardly got a chance
• Gavin Williams didn't get a chance
• It is going to take a village to beat the Yankees in a 7 game series.  The small war party of your best warriors will not get the job done.  

There is nothing that gives me the sense that Vogt will be able to flip the switch and actually manage and actually manage with his whole roster in the upcoming NY series.  His use of the bullpen has been almost criminal as it is now HIGHLY likely that guys will come up lame either next spring or during the season due to their overuse in 2024.  We need to limit that damage to the level it is now instead of having the misconception that the way he managed in the ALDS is the right way to manage and, especially not the right way to manage in a best-of-seven ALCS.  

Because he totally mismanaged this series and, to their benefit, the Guardians found a way to overcome his overmanaging and stll win the game and the series.  But what he did needs to stop.  More about that when I talk about who I think should be on the ALCS roster.

Before looking ahead, I have to give credit to Lane Thomas for his clutch play.  Ditto to the relievers for gutting it out and for Boyd, Bibee and Cobb for giving what they were asked and not complaining about being lifted early.  Ditto to David Fry who was did well while continuing to be overused.  Without him we don't make the playoffs and we certainly don't go to the ALCS.  Finally, it was GREAT to see Rocchio to silence his critics.   I hope this is what springboards him to being an elite offensive and defensive SS going forward.  

2. Looking Ahead - ALCS Roster

Tough choices are ahead for the Guardians in this series.  My guess is that they have to go 13 hitters and 13 pitchers given that this is a best of 7 series and with the way they used their bullpen in the ALDS. So...

Position players:

Hedges, Bo Naylor, Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Gimenez, Rocchio, Kwan, Thomas, Fry are locks. That's 9, leaving 4 spots.  The Yankees look like they may have 2-3 LHRP and 1 LHSP.  This would seem to imply that we should be LHH/SH-heavy in this round.  So, to me, the next 4 should be:

Brennan, Martinez, Manzardo, Schneeman,

I really debated Straw (to start in CF, pushing Thomas to RF, where he is much better defensively) instead of Schneeman and whether I could justify Noel if we needed a RH pinch-hitter.  Unfortunately, I just think Noel played himself off this team with his last month of the regular season and his first series and Straw doesn't bring any platoon advantages as I don't think he will be needed often enough against the Yankees (25% vs SP and maybe 25% vs RP, if the Yankees would even fear him enough to make a platoon switch.  Still, Thomas has no range in CF so if they surprised us and included Straw for defense, I wouldn't be surprised, even though I think Straw is becoming a shadow of his Gold Glove self.  He still, however, is much better than Thomas in CF.  I think, on the other hand, that Brennan, Martinez, Manzardo and even Schneeman may be better options given the pitchers the Yankees are likely to deploy.  This gives us a more LH slant to our bench but I think we already have enough RH and SH hitter guys to combat the LH RP the Yankees may throw at us.  I think we would sucker them into using their LH RP for matchups but I don't think those matchups would not prove favorable to them as this series would unfold.

Pitchers:

Bibee, Boyd, Cobb, Clase, Smith, Gaddis, Herrin and Sabrowski are locks, leaving 5 spots left.

For me, the 5 guys should be: Williams, Lively, Cantillo, Avila and Walters.

That last spot was tough for me because I had to choose Walters over Morgan and Sandlin.  Still, given how Vogt abused his leverage relievers in the ALDS, I was looking for length from Avila and, potentially, Lively or Williams, so I am willing to gamble on Walters for a 1 or 2 time usage in this series, hoping he gets it together.  The Yankees know Morgan more than well enough to abuse him just enough to maybe steal a game from us.  I think deploying Walters, a totally unknown quantity to the Yankees, 1 or 2 times in the series may get us better results.

The pitchers I suggest are only practical if we are looking for bulk relievers and realize we cannot use our leverage relievers in any way that is similar to how they were abused in the ALDS.  Some of these guys like Avila, Cantillo and Williams/Lively could bring us enough length as bulk relievers that we could bridge to Smith OR Gaddis in the 8th and Clase in the 9th, instead of trying to stretch out the 3 of them and risk long-term damage to their arms and short term downturn in their performance.

Summary

So, there it is.  My 26 for this series.  It is all a gamble as to what situations will present themselves but I have found that people work best when they know their role and you don't ask them to do more (or less) than they expect.  Doubt that the Guardians will go this way but this is what I would do.

Thoughts For A Wednesday - Motown Edition

 Well, we are 3 games into the best of 5 series in the National League and the wildcard round winners are up 2-1, looking to clinch on their home field tomorrow night.

The Guardians are playing in Motown on Wednesday, trying to be the first team this season to go up 2-1 with a chance to clinch on the road.  The Tigers have to feel pretty good as they only have to win one of two in Detroit to go back to Cleveland.  If that happens they will likely go to Tarik Skubal, the likely AL Cy Young Award winner who has been lights out in the playoffs this year.

Fans were bemoaning Monday's loss but this was just a great game that hinged on 3 bad batters for Clase, one of which was a 3-run homer.  Had Clase been perfect we might have had a redo of the 2022 game #2 in the wildcard round that went to 15 innings before Sponge Bob won it with his dramatic HR off Corey Kluber for a 1-0 win.  One run in 15 innings!  Sometimes things go your way and sometimes they don't.  

So, while some look with trepidation at the thought of going down 2-1, I look at it as an opportunity to go up 2-1.  While some fans think we have to win 2 in Detroit to avoid Skubal in game 5, I look at it like we just have to win 1 to take it back to Cleveland with the chance to produce another instant classic.  

Look, it is not for us, as fans, to decide whether the Guardians win or lose.  We are just there to root.  It is also not for us to decide if Stephen Vogt is pushing all the right buttons because I think the presumptive AL Manager of the Year has earned our trust.

Will it break Cleveland's way and will they go on to the ALCS this year?  I don't know.  But my guess is that the thrill of the ride will be good enough for me, just like it was in 2016.

My wife said I was surprisingly in good spirits after the loss on Monday.  I told her it was because I just watched a great playoff game that created plenty of memories for me with Boyd's start, Noel's hustle and great throw and Kwan's great catch.  Highlights in my memory hopefully not to be soon forgotten.  So, there is only one thing left to say about today's game 3.

Go Guardians!

And please pray for the people in Florida that they can withstand hurricane Milton with no loss of life.

Thoughts For A Monday Morning - Game 2 vs the Tigers and Other Things.

First, my prayers are with the people in Florida who are about to impacted by yet another hurricane.  I pray that God blesses and keeps you all and help all those impacted by previous hurricanes heal and recover.

Second, the Guardians play again today against Detroit's ace, Tarik Skubal.  It will be a tough task but se, your fans, are cheering for Cleveland.

Thoughts about today's game

• It is a shame that Tyler Freeman is now injured and may not play this post-season.   He was such a true professional after he got demoted and didn't sulk or underperform when he was sent to Columbus.  I think he has a chance to have a really bright future in baseball.  I hope it is with the Guardians and starts either in these playoffs or next spring and, 10 years from now, we think of Freeman the same way we now think of Jason Kipnis.
• I would like the see the Guardians put more of a push on for Cade Smith to win ROY in the AL.  It is a relatively mediocre year for rookies in the AL (especially compared to the NL), I think a good, strong push might make voters put him first.  It would help if every time a Guardians' player, coach, manager or PR person mentioned Smith's name it is preceded or immediately follow by "rookie" so people remember that the great things he has accomplished on the field this year were done by someone eligible for the ROY award.
•  I think, and hope, Matthew Boyd can keep us barely in the lead or very close this game.  Love our chances if that happens.
• Fry and Thomas were a start, but we still need more of our young hitters to step up and our young pitchers to shine.   It will take a village to win this post-season.  We have the talent.  We just need some more guys (e.g., Noel, Martinez, Brennan) to get hot.
• Love listening to Hammy and watching the game on TV with the sound turned down.  Hopefully they are more in sync today than the first game.  I felt clairvoyant, as the radio feed was ahead by a pitch so I always knew what was going to happen next on the TV.  LOL!  I grew up with baseball on the radio, with a transistor radio under my pillow for west coast games.  It's just something about the radio broadcasts that make an old guy like me feel at home.
• Could go into great analytical detail about the game but I would rather just end by saying GO GUARDIANS!!!

Final thought: I don't really understand not having the fall instructs.  Having guys getting instruction in conditioning and technical and mental aspects of the game and of living baseball in the US 24/7 can never be bad and HAS to advance their development.  Plus, injured guys need more reps, even though the bridge league did provide a little of that.  Bridge league is about games.  I am talking daily instruction, especially to continue the development of Latin American guys who played in the US this year or who will likely play here next year.  [NOTE: I did love the pictures of the guys at the Dominican complex who are there for fall training, going nuts when Lane Thomas hit his HR.]  The look is bad for the organization as it just looks like they are trying to save a buck.  So, in not having instructs, it would be nice to show fans what our ticket dollars ARE going towards this fall, that will help future Cleveland Guardians get there faster and better.

2024 - Rule 5 Draft - Part 2 - History and What It Means This Year

 Since we have a break between the regular season ending and the post-season starts, I wanted to publish  Part 2 about the upcoming Rule 5 draft.

In this piece I wanted to look back over recent history and how that would play into roster decisions that are made leading up to the 2024 November roster freeze.

As the 2024 Rule 5 eligible group for the Guardians is very heavy in pitchers, I will look only at pitchers.

Over the past two Rule 5 draft cycles (2202, 2023, there as not Rule 5 draft in 2021), here were the Guardians prospects who were most likely to be selected in the Rule 5 if not protected (players protected are in bold, red, players lost in the Rule 5 are in blue bold):

2023

Daniel Espino - SP

Cade Smith - RP

Tanner Burns - SP/RP

Ethan Hankins - SP

2022

Joey Cantillo - SP

Tim Herrin - RP

Peyton Battenfield - SP

Kevin Kelly - RP

Nic Enright - RP

Note that in these two drafts the Guardians had only 2 starting pitchers who were really at risk for being selected (Cantillo and Espino) and they were both protected.  Also, the Guardians protected two relievers (Cade Smith and Tim Herrin) who have turned out to both be high leverage options in 2024 (Smith, Herrin), while leaving unprotected a number of minor league relievers with only 1 (Kelly) making the majors so far.

As you can tell, even with the so-called pitching factory, the Guardians have been thin enough at the major league level that their quality pitching prospects have generally matriculated to the majors before  becoming Rule 5 eligible.

But, due to the almost exclusively college pitcher 2021 draft and the great development system those 18 pitchers were put into, that will be different in the upcoming Rule 5 draft.  Below is a list of pitching prospects who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this December.  I have broken this group down into 3 categories: very likely, somewhat likely and unlikely to be picked in the Rule 5 draft.  Note that ALL of these guys are either in AA or AAA meaning any one of them is in position to help the Guardians ML pitching staff sometime in 2025.

Very Likely

• Doug Nikhazy (AAA)
• Ryan Webb (AAA)
• Franco Aleman (AAA) (reliever but will likely be selected if not protected)

Somewhat Likely

• Tommy Mace (AA)
• Aaron Davenport (AA)
• Trenton Denholm (AA)

Unlikely

• Will Dion (AAA)

Also, when considering the above starting pitchers, remember that even if they fail, some (I think especially Mace) could flourish if converted to power relievers.  So we not only have to consider their potential as starting pitchers to help the ML club but as relievers, as well.

In addition, the following actual relievers are eligible for the Rule 5 this year:

• Nick Mikolajchak (AAA)
• Andrew Misiaszek (AAA)
• Lenny Torres Jr. (AA)* (becomes minor league free agent if not rostered)
• Alaska Abney (AA)
• Nic Enright (AAA)

Looking at this list, the Guardians have, when they were Rule 5-eligible, protected pitching prospects like the top 6 on this list.   There simply will not be any 40-man roster spots for any of the relievers on this list although any of the 5 of them could be conceivably help the Guardians in 2025 the way Sabrowski has helped in 2024, maybe even at the Andrew Walters level.  I think, instead, that some of the starters will be tried in relief first as they come with higher pedigrees.

So we have an issue.  Fans will scream for the Guardians to re-sign Beiber, Lively, Boyd and Cobb but, frankly, long-term, we have cheaper and more intriguing and controllable options in-house.  It's jsut that they come as higher risk without a lot of higher upside from these 4 veterans.

This is a tough choice but given how expensive starting pitching is in the majors and how many teams can't even field 5 decent starting pitchers, giving away young, controllable arms who could end up as #3 starters or power relievers in the majors is pretty hard to swallow, no matter how adversely it might impact our ML team in 2025 if we kept those guys INSTEAD of signing veteran FAs.